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Failed Trade Might Prompt Senators To Move Turris Quickly

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After Friday night’s attempt to deal Ottawa Senators’ Kyle Turris to Nashville in a three-team trade fell through, don’t be surprised if the Ottawa Senators escalate their search for a trade partner to fix this rapidly awkward situation. While no one was surprised that Turris was not available for interview after the team’s 5-4 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights Saturday, the situation has become much more tense in the past 24 hours. Not only that, but the team is

Bruce Garrioch of The Ottawa Sun writes that an extension with Turris is highly unlikely, especially now. And the fact that Turris almost got traded to Nashville suggests the team isn’t planning on trying. Supposedly, he is asking for seven years at $6MM annually, while Ottawa is offering five years at similar money. And while that doesn’t seem like the negotiations are too far off and a bridge could be found, there are definitely questions whether they ought to lock up the 29-year-old center to a long-term deal. They already have 30-year-old Bobby Ryan locked up for four more years after this one at $7.25MM and don’t forget 32-year-old defenseman Dion Phaneuf is signed for three more years at $7MM. To add another long-term deal where all of them could begin to decline at once, could place the team into a hole the franchise might not recover from. They also have to consider long-term extensions for Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone as well.

That leaves the trade option. And Garrioch writes they need to move quickly, because the team can’t afford to let him walk away at the seasons’ end for nothing and Ottawa needs to get as much value as possible for Turris, so they don’t even have the luxury of waiting until the trade deadline.

The obvious deal would be to still make a deal for Colorado’s Matt Duchene, who they were supposed to get in the three-team for Turris, but since a third team was needed to make the deal, it’s obvious that Colorado has no interest in Turris and why would they want a 29-year-old soon-to-be free agent to join their rebuild? Would the Senators move a player like Thomas Chabot and more to acquire Duchene?

The Athletic’s James Gordon (subscription required) writes that Nashville might still be a viable option. They are obviously interested in Turris since they were trying to get him yesterday. However, what will the Senators get back in return? Would they be willing to take a package of young players and hope that their young talent like Colin White and Logan Brown are ready to produce now? However, a trade for youth could also hold up the team’s success another year or two, which won’t help their core of veteran players.

While the questions remain unanswered for the time being, the team’s loss to Vegas today reiterates that the Senators are a playoff bubble-team at best, so changes might be necessary no matter what to improve the franchise’s long-term options.

Senators Passed Up Chance To Unload Ryan

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One of the few players who was heavily anticipated to become a Vegas Golden Knight did not – Bobby Ryan. Despite an above-average playoff performance in the Senators’ heartbreaking Conference Final run, Ryan has vastly under-performed relative to his contract. Instead of coordinating a deal to unload that contract to Vegas, they instead lost Marc Methot, perhaps the second best defenseman on the team in that Cinderella story. Methot’s contract was not perfect, to be sure, but Ryan’s deal still looms large over the team for years.

It should be noted that Ryan has been a consistent 50+ point producer prior to this season, where he tallied only 25 through 62 contests. He’s been on pace for over 50 every year since he was a rookie. That said, his fall from grace in 2016-17was concerning and dramatic. His puck control seriously declined, his decision making faltered, and his production took a nosedive. With only 12 goals, and coming off a hot post-season, the time was ripe for GM Pierre Dorion to take advantage of Vegas’ unique situation and rid himself of a bad contract. Earning $7.25 MM AAV for the next five seasons, Ryan is the 36th highest paid forward in the league, and second-highest on the payroll behind Erik Karlsson.

For those who believe such an arrangement could not have been worked out, merely look at some of the contracts Vegas did take on. The essentially retired David Clarkson’s $5.25 MM for the next 3 seasons was shipped out at the price of a first and a 2020 second. The perennially concussed Mikhail Grabovski was dealt for a similar package, which also protected some of the Islanders’ players. Vegas also didn’t shy away from taking veteran players with value – they selected James Neal (29 years old) from Nashville as well as David Perron from the Blues (29 years old). Certainly, with a little encouragement, George McPhee might have entertained the possibility of Ryan as a Knight. The price may have been steep, but Karlsson is in the prime of his career, while many players are looking for raises in the immediate future. Clearing Ryan’s albatross off the books may have gone a long way towards building toward a consistent contender.

Ultimately, Dorion decided against unloading a bloated contract in hopes that Ryan’s post-season revival was no mirage. With the UFA crop available, it’s difficult to blame the management for doubling down on the struggling winger. Five roster players will be UFA after this season, including Craig Anderson and Kyle Turris, while Mark Stone (RFA) has earned a raise. Karlsson will then be due a raise for 2019-20, as will five other forwards. The team will need to rely upon cost-effective ELC players and bargain contracts to continue holding pace with the rest of the Atlantic division. Only time will tell whether the Ryan decision was the correct one.

Ottawa’s Expansion Conundrum

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The Ottawa Senators are in for a tough decision come the completion of their playoff run, whenever that might be. Ottawa has a team which is built upon depth and scoring by committee, but each NHL team can only protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goaltender – or alternatively, 8 total skaters and 1 goaltender in the upcoming expansion draft. The Senators are in a situation where they will likely prefer to lose a veteran with a large contract. This seems doubly true because the organization is believed to have an internal cap for financial reasons, and will need to clear space in order to hand out hefty raises to Mark Stone and Kyle Turris following the 2017-18 campaign.

Obviously, Erik Karlsson, Stone, Turris, and Mike Hoffman will be protected. Karlsson is a perennial Norris favorite, captain of the team, and one of the best offensive defensemen the game has seen in decades. Stone and Hoffman are the driving forces behind offensive production, and are both on the young end of their primes. Turris has finally, fully come into his own as a number one center, posting  a 27 goal, 55 point season. Considering the price to acquire him (Mika Zibanejad) and the relative value of centers to this team which isn’t too formidable up the middle, Derick Brassard also seems a certainty to stay. Craig Anderson is the obvious pick in net. He’s been an absolute rock that the team has depended on the past few seasons, and this year was simply extraordinary. Cody Ceci is also a rather safe bet, consider minutes logged, age, and his role on the back-end. Marc Methot should seemingly be a core piece to the defense as well, but as we will soon see, his situation is far more complicated. So, in terms of definitely protected players:

Forward:    Hoffman, Stone, Turris, Brassard

Defense:    Karlsson, Ceci

Goalie:    Anderson

That leaves 3 forwards and 1 defensemen, or, alternatively, 2 total skaters to protect. It seems somewhat unlikely (although not impossible) that they will opt for the latter option. If we look at the potential list of who can be protected, there are no easy answers. Up front, Alexandre Burrows seems to have been a solid fit, as he has played well since being promoted to Turris’ right wing on the top line, and his cap hit drops to a measly $2.5 MM going forward. Zack Smith has been a more-than-capable third-line center, and is signed to a cap-friendly deal for four years after this. Bobby Ryan is incredibly overpaid ($7.25 MM) considering his performance this past year (25 points), but has expressed his profound disappointment in his own season to the relative acceptance of the fanbase. It doesn’t hurt his cause that he has been Ottawa’s best skater this post-season by far, leading the team with 7 points through 6 games. Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ryan Dzingel could also receive consideration for a protected forward spot, but only one is likely to remain unguarded.

In terms of defense, Dion Phaneuf has a bloated contract which would be especially helpful to be rid of. Phaneuf is getting an absurd $7 MM per year , but he is on the “must-protect” list due to his modified no-trade, no-movement clause. The team could ask him to waive, but considering his solid play of late, this is more difficult to conceive. There is also no guarantee that Vegas would be interested in the player. The up-and-coming Fredrik Claesson is exempt from the expansion draft and needs no protection. Therefore, it seems likely that Methot ($4.9 MM) will be the odd man out, as he would likely be exposed in the 7-3 option. This would be a difficult pill for Ottawa fans to swallow, as Methot has arguably been their best shutdown player and he logs a ton of tough minutes.

For a team that has worked so hard to shore up its back-end and add depth up front, there are no easy solutions for GM Pierre Dorion. If you lose Methot, you lose your best defensive defenseman – if you expose a resurgent Ryan, you surrender a creative offensive weapon. Either way, Vegas is likely going to pick one of its integral players from Canada’s capital city.

Injury Notes: Ferland, Stone, Leivo, Rust

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Calgary Flames winger Micheal Ferland has rejoined his teammates in Nashville today after being quarantined for almost a week. The 24-year old had showed signs of the mumps outbreak that had swept through the NHL briefly, but is now symptom free. He’ll be back in on the top line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan tonight, according to Kristen Odland of Postmedia.

Here are some other injury notes from around the league:

  • Josh Leivo will take the spot of the injured Eric Fehr in tonight’s Maple Leafs lineup according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. With Nikita Soshnikov still on the mend following a big hit from Zdeno Chara, Leivo will look to get back to his scoring ways tonight. The young winger had nine points in a ten game stretch last month when Mitch Marner was dealing with an injury, and has considerable offensive upside. He’ll slot in on the fourth line tonight beside Brian Boyle and Matt Martin.
  • Despite skating with the team in a regular jersey this morning, Cedric Paquette will not return to the lineup for Tampa Bay according to Caley Chelios of FOX Sports. The Lightning center will remain out alongside Steven Stamkos and Tyler Johnson for the time being.
  • On Stamkos, he was seen skating again before practice, but admitted to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times that “time is running out” for him to return this season. Stamkos has been skating for weeks as he tries to come back from a meniscus tear in his right knee. The Lightning are currently sitting five points back with ten games to play.
  • Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports that Ottawa Senators forward Mark Stone was back skating this morning, though he won’t play tonight. Stone was out early and stayed late at practice as he works hard to get back into the Senators lineup. The team can smell first place in the Atlantic Division, and getting Stone—arguably their best forward—back before the end of the season could help them wrestle the crown away from the Montreal Canadiens. With a matchup against the fourth Metropolitan team looming in the first round, whether they should really want it is a different story.
  • Penguins’ forward Bryan Rust is almost back in the lineup reports Bill West of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review after taking part in just about everything at today’s Pittsburgh practice. Though he won’t play tonight, the 24-year old forward will likely be back in a game before the end of the week; the Penguins take on Ottawa tonight, New York (Islanders) tomorrow and Philadelphia on Sunday.
  • Three goaltenders were at practice today for the Anaheim Ducks, including John Gibson as he continues to rehab his latest injury. Head coach Randy Carlyle said today that Gibson will definitely play before the end of the regular season, though that still leaves the question of whether he’ll be tested enough to start game one of the playoffs. We’ll see how many games the young netminder gets in before Anaheim has to take on a team like the Edmonton Oilers or Calgary Flames in the first round.

Snapshots: Kurker, Hunlak, Stone

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The Albany Devils have signed one of the most interesting college names in the country to an amateur tryout according to Mark Divver of the Providence Journal. Sam Kurker of Northeastern was originally drafted in 2012 by the St. Louis Blues and headed to Boston University to begin his college career. After a frustrating season and a half at BU, Kurker decided to take his talents elsewhere and headed back to the USHL to play for the Indiana Ice. Upon finishing the 2013-14 season with Indiana—and winning a championship—the team closed its doors and Kurker headed to the Sioux City Musketeers.

After an outstanding season for Sioux City Kurker went back to the NCAA ranks, this time at Northeastern. In two years at the school Kurker had similar frustrations as during his time for BU, and finished this season with just six points in 28 games. The former top prospect was overshadowed by other names like Zach Aston-Reese and Adam Gaudette, and will now try to continue his hockey career in Albany.

  • Any Toronto Maple Leafs fans that are hoping the pairing of Roman Polak and Matt Hunwick—affectionately nicknamed “Hunlack”—will be broken up should quit holding their breath, as a new article from Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston relays that Mike Babcock is very happy with the way they’re playing. Despite being horrendous weights on the team’s possession numbers, Babcock goes by other evaluation tools like “knowing where to stand”. While younger players often get caught chasing the puck in their own zone, the Leafs coach is happy to deploy a more veteran pair on defense.
  • Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen writes that Mark Stone is getting closer to returning to the Ottawa Senators lineup and has taken a “major” step towards that goal by getting back on the ice today. With the Senators losing their last four games, they’ve slipped down far enough to allow Boston and Toronto just a sliver of hope in the Atlantic race, and could use Stone’s help to slam that door shut for the final time. If they’re to do any damage in the playoffs, they’ll need their top forward healthy enough to contribute; they’ve scored just six goals in those four recent losses.

Saturday Snapshots: Tkachuk, Stamkos, Stone

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Given his pedigree, it should come as little surprise that one of Matthew Tkachuk’s strengths is his advanced hockey sense. His father, Keith Tkachuk of course, played 18 seasons in the NHL and scored 538 career regular season goals. As Darren Haynes writes on his Flames From 80 Feet Above blog, the younger Tkachuk displays hockey awareness on par with that of a 10-year veteran as opposed to that of a 19-year-old rookie.

Flames head coach Glen Gulutzan certainly agrees with the sentiment, praising the young power forward’s “gamesmanship, his hockey sense (and) his ice awareness.” Haynes describes a subtle play made by the rookie in a recent win over Dallas in which Tkachuk touched the puck with a high stick and knew if he was the first to touch it that the officials would blow the play dead. Instead, Tkachuk tracked the puck into the offensive zone and waited for a Stars player to play the puck. Adam Cracknell did just that and Tkachuk picked his pocket and moved the puck to Mark Giordano whose shot deflected off of Stars defenseman Dan Hamhuis and into the net.

Tkachuk has tallied 13 goals and 46 points in 67 games this season which represents excellent production for any rookie, much less one just 19 years old and in his first professional campaign. Yet beyond his offensive output, it may be the little things Tkachuk brings to the table that makes him such a valuable contributor to a team that appears poised to make the playoffs.

Elsewhere in the NHL on this Saturday:

  • Steven Stamkos, out since November with a knee injury, returned to the ice as a full participant at the Lightning’s Friday practice. While that has to be considered a positive sign in his lengthy recovery, Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Stamkos’ return is still not “imminent.” The Lightning, who have surprisingly managed to resurface in the playoff race despite a trade deadline selloff of goalie Ben Bishop along with forwards Brian Boyle and Valtteri Filppula, would certainly welcome a healthy Stamkos with open arms but at this point it appears they’ll have to manage without their captain for a little while longer.
  • Ottawa Senators forward Mark Stone, who has missed the last week with a lower-body injury, is still considered week-to-week and according to head coach Guy Boucher hasn’t skated while recovering from the leg issue, reports Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen. Stone, a terrific forechecker, has tallied 22 goals and 50 points in 63 games this season and is an important cog up front for the Senators. While the loss of Stone certainly stings, his absence has been mitigated somewhat by trade deadline acquisitions Alexandre Burrows and Viktor Stalberg, who have combined for six goals and nine points in the eight games since coming to Canada’s capital. Ottawa, at this point safely in possession of a postseason slot, will continue to look for production from the newest Sens as they work to secure a playoff berth.

Injury Notes: Calvert, Carrick, Senators

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have activated Matt Calvert off injured reserve as they get ready to play the Philadelphia Flyers tonight. After getting word that Ryan Murray will be out for four to six weeks, Calvert’s return should be welcome news in Columbus. The 27-year old winger hasn’t played since February 17th, out with a strained oblique muscle. Though he only has 11 points on the season, Calvert is a big part of the Blue Jackets’ bottom-six and penalty kill.

Following Calvert’s return, the Blue Jackets have sent T.J. Tynan back to the AHL. The diminutive forward had played three games for the team but rarely saw the ice. With less than eight minutes a night, Tynan was being wasted at the NHL level and instead will return to continue his excellent minor league season. With 30 points in 55 games, Tynan ranks second on the Cleveland Monsters in scoring and has shown a consistent ability to find his teammates.

Morning Notes: Glendale, Niederreiter, Halverson

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When Gary Bettman wrote a letter to Arizona lawmakers compelling them to pass Bill 1149—which would allow more than $200MM to be allocated from the state budget to build a new arena for the Coyotes closer to downtown Phoenix—he used some very strong wording. “The Coyotes cannot and will not remain in Glendale,” the Commissioner wrote in a thinly veiled threat that would hopefully force the Senate’s hand. He has received much backlash from the letter, including from a former mayor of Glendale herself, Elaine Scruggs (published by AZCentral).

Before the Coyotes moved out of downtown Phoenix they ranked 29th in attendance out of the league of 30 teams. Their first year in the Glendale Arena they ranked 19th in attendance. Attendance stayed in that tier until the floundering team started losing their disappointed fans’ support.

The truth is that the Coyotes have a world-class, taxpayer-funded arena that is designed for hockey and is only 12 years old. They have a City Council and City Manager ready to work with them to achieve an equitable long-term lease.

Scruggs makes a clear point in her letter, saying that it is not the people or city of Glendale’s fault, but the ownership groups the NHL has installed over their 19-year run. As the team struggles in last place in the Pacific Division, it is looking more and more like it won’t matter for the city that once loved their Coyotes. If they don’t get funding for another new arena, they might end up moving further than anyone—fans or the NHL—have ever wanted.

Expansion Draft Issues: Post-Trade Deadline

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Last month, we looked at several teams facing some tough situations in regards to the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft and offered potential solutions to how they could address their needs for forwards, defensemen and goalies at the NHL Trade Deadline. With March 1st over and done with, many of those squads have solved their problems with signings or acquisitions.

Calgary Flames

Problem: Defense

Status: Solved

The Flames solved their problem of otherwise having to expose Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, or Dougie Hamilton with the ingenious signing of Matt Bartkowski, the only defenseman on the planet who was both free to acquire and automatically eligible for exposure in the draft. It’s a good thing they signed him too, since they ended up trading away their best fall-back option, young defenseman Jyrki Jokipakka.

Carolina Hurricanes

Problem: Defense

Status: Unsolved

It was a pretty quiet deadline in Raleigh, as the ’Canes shipped out Ron Hainsey and Viktor Stalberg and then called it a day. What they didn’t do was acquire another body on the blue line to help solve their lack of a defenseman to expose. Carolina is still facing the problem of All-Star Justin Faulk being the only defenseman on the roster currently meeting the criteria for mandated exposure, due to the majority of their defensemen being too young to be eligible altogether. There is no way that Faulk is there for the taking by Vegas, but GM Ron Francis is left with only two choices: extend impending RFA Klas Dahlbeck or extend impending UFA Matt Tennyson and make sure he plays in seven more games this season, as he’s currently short of the 40-game mark.

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Vancouver Canucks Trade Alex Burrows To Ottawa Senators

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Following the Maple Leafs’ acquisition of Brian Boyle, the Ottawa Senators have made their own deal up front. The Vancouver Canucks have sent Alex Burrows east in exchange for Jonathan Dahlen, a prospect selected in the second round this summer. The deal includes a two-year extension for Burrows which will pay him $2.5MM per season.Alex Burrows

Ottawa has needed help on the wing since Bobby Ryan broke a finger and was ruled out for more than a month if not before. When Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman were both injured the next day, it proved just how fragile their depth at the position was. Burrows adds to that depth in a big way, despite not being the 30-goal scorer of his youth. His production has dropped to that of a third liner in recent years, though he does give you some special teams flexibility with experience on both the powerplay and penalty kill.

Burrows is currently earning a full season salary of just $3MM, though his cap-hit comes in at $4.5MM. For a team like Ottawa who does not spend right up to the cap, having a lower actual salary is a big plus.

Despite having his offensive production slip in recent seasons, Burrows still provides an ample amount of sandpaper to any game, getting under the skin of star players and often forcing teams into bad penalties. His style of play and general demeanor will be welcome on an Ottawa team that has missed that kind of play from Chris Neil due to being scratched or only playing a handful of minutes. Burrows would immediately become a hated target in the Atlantic Division, and a valuable playoff asset.

Burrows had a full no-trade clause in his contract, and may have only been willing to waive it after agreeing to an extension with the Senators. There was no guarantee he would get a two-year deal on the open market this summer, especially at the age of 35. With the Atlantic crown is clearly up for grabs, the Maple Leafs and Senators have pushed some of their chips forward as they reach for the top. We’ll see if the Montreal Canadiens now answer with a move of their own (turns out they will).

In Dahlen, the Senators have paid a very high price for the addition of grit and depth. The Swedish prospect was selected at #42 in this summer’s draft and is tearing up the Swedish second league with 41 points in 43 games. The 19-year old forward is an exceptionally skilled offensive player that dropped in the draft due to his small stature. The Canucks, dealing with a nightmarish season have pried a very good return out of a rental with a no-trade clause. While they didn’t receive any draft picks, Dahlen should be considered no worse than a late-first/early-second round pick in this year’s draft.

It’s a hefty price to pay for Burrows, even if he does fit the Senators lineup well. We’ll see if Ottawa has any more additions in the next few days, as teams load up for a dogfight in the last two months.

Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun was the first to announce that the two were finalizing a deal, though Joshua Kloke of The Athletic heard rumors of the deal earlier today. Kloke would include that it came with an extension, one that Dan Murphy of Sportsnet gave us the financials on.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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