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Salary Cap Floor Should Not Pose Problems For Any Team In 2018-19

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The purpose of the salary cap in the NHL is to maintain a sense of competitive balance across the league. That means both limiting how much a team can spend, the salary cap ceiling, but also ensuring that every team is competitive with a minimum expenditure, the salary cap floor. Some teams, generally those in smaller markets or undergoing rebuilds, tend to try to toe the line of the salary cap floor, paying as close to the minimum as possible for their roster. In years past, some teams have even struggled to hit that mark, taking on injured players or overpaying players in order to pass the floor. It’s unlikely that any of the 31 franchises will face that problem in 2018-19.

This season, with a corresponding jump in the salary cap ceiling, the floor moved to $58.8MM. With the bulk of unrestricted free agency accounted for, just three teams currently sit below that mark: the New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, and Winnipeg Jets. However, both the Rangers and Jets can immediately be crossed off as a salary floor concern. The pair are perhaps the two teams with the most potential salary tied up in salary arbitration this off-season.

The Jets currently have the lowest projected payroll in the league, with a 16-man roster that accounts for approximately $52.7MM. However, Winnipeg’s list of restricted free agents who have filed for arbitration include Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck, defenseman Jacob Trouba, and forwards Adam Lowry, Chris Tanev, and Marko Dano, as well as defenseman Tucker Poolman who did not file. Those six players could easily combine for more than $20MM in combined salary when all is said and done, putting the Jets well clear of the floor and closer to the ceiling. Defenseman Josh Morrissey, who is not arbitration eligible also needs a new contract. Winnipeg is far from a floor concern.

In New York, the Rangers sit at $55.8MM in projected cap committed to 16 players, just $3MM shy of the floor. They also need to re-sign a majority of their young core, with forwards Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, and Jimmy Vesey and defenseman Brady Skjei having filed for arbitration. The Rangers could pass the floor by extending just one of those players, nevertheless all four. New deals for those three forwards still leaves New York one or two shy of a full roster as well, meaning more salary will come into the fold via promotion or an additional acquisition.

As for the Devils, New Jersey is already close to the floor at a projected $56.4MM for 19 players. Forwards Blake Coleman and Stefan Noesen have filed for arbitration and the deals for both could be enough to push the Devils to where they need to be. Even if it doesn’t, the team will still need to sign non-arbitration eligible RFA’s Miles Wood and Steve Santini, whose deals should definitely be enough. New Jersey will likely be a team that hovers close to the floor next season; that didn’t stop them from making the playoffs in 2017-18, though.

Perhaps the only team who should be legitimately concerned about the salary cap floor next season in Ottawa. The Senators and owner Eugene Melnyk have made it no secret that they are trying to shed salary and come in as close to the minimum as possible. Right now, the team sits just $3MM above the floor at a projected $61.8MM roster for 20 players. However, that isn’t including the arbitration resolutions for both defenseman Cody Ceci and forward Mark Stone. Those two deals will put Ottawa well above the floor. Even if the team was to trade star defenseman Erik Karlsson, they should remain above the floor, especially with additional salaries likely to be added in the trade return. The one scenario in which Melnyk could succeed in dropping significant salary would be if both Karlsson and Bobby Ryan were to be traded away. The resulting $13.75MM loss in payable salary would more than offset the contracts for Stone and Ceci and likely the contracts of those players coming back as well, potentially dropping the team below $58.8MM. Yet, even in that case, the Senators’ efforts to fill out their roster after losing Karlsson and Ryan – either by promotion or acquisition – could easily be used to get back to that mark.

The salary cap floor was never intended to be used as a target for teams to hover above and spend as little as possible. The goal of the NHL is have each and every team be competitive, not simply trying to maximize profits. As such, the 2018-19 season has some parity promise as seemingly no team will struggle to get over the floor or have to use contracts for the old and injured to get there. For the first time in years, every team seems set to be competitive and comfortably over the minimum cap hit.

All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

Snapshots: Offer Sheets, Wideman, Bergevin

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The NHL has restricted free agency for a reason, but instead of it being a way for talent-deprived teams to sign away top young players, offers sheets are ignored and never used. The last offer sheet signed was five years ago when Ryan O’Reilly signed an offer sheet with the Calgary Flames in 2013 and there have only been eight offer sheets signed in the salary cap era.

After all, with a weak unrestricted free agent class this season, teams would benefit if they had an equally good chance at competing for restricted free agents. This year’s restricted free agent class is quite impressive. Led by Vegas’ William Karlsson, Ottawa’s Mark Stone, Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba and Toronto’s William Nylander, teams should be making a move on some of these players.

Sportsnet’s Sean McIndoe writes the main reason for the lack of offer sheets comes down to the compensation that is returned if a team allows a team to leave. The scribe writes that the compensation is not good enough and forces teams to sign their restricted free agents regardless of their cap situation. He points out that the compensation looks impressive when dealing with a player that makes more that $10.15MM per year. A team that signs a restricted free agent in that bracket would receive four first-round picks. Unfortunately, few players are in that salary bracket unless your name is Connor McDavid. If he was a restricted free agent, any team would give up four first-rounders for McDavid.

If the NHL wants to improve on restricted free agency, then they must double the compensation so teams really need to think about whether they would rather have that player or let him go and take the compensation package. Unfortunately right now, no team wants the compensation package.

  • Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun writes that unrestricted free agent Chris Wideman said that he wants to return to the Ottawa Senators next season, but isn’t sure he’s in the team’s plans for next season. The 28-year-old defenseman said he talked to general manager Pierre Dorion recently and was told that the organization had other matters to attend to before addressing whether they plan to bring him back. Wideman missed most of the season last year after having surgery in December to repair a torn hamstring after Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin fell on him on Nov. 16. Used as a depth defenseman for his three years in Ottawa, he averaged a career-low 11:33 of ATOI in 16 NHL contests, despite putting up eight points in that time period.
  • Stu Cowan of The Montreal Gazette writes that general manager Marc Bergevin said today that the team is willing to trade the No. 3 pick in the NHL Entry Draft. “I’ll listen, I’m open,” Bergevin said. “I’ve told teams if they want to make me an offer, I’ll look at it. But again, sometimes teams don’t want to move up. As much as a team wants to move back or move up, if there’s no takers or buyers then you just sit where you’re at.”

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

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Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Ottawa’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: D Cody Ceci – While Ceci may not be universally loved by the traditional scouting or analytics community, his role on the Senators is clear. He’s expected to anchor the shutdown second pair and allow Erik Karlsson’s unit to play more offensively against weaker competition. Ceci logged over 23 minutes a night last season, easily registering more short-handed time than any other player for the Senators. His 2:46 of penalty killing time every night was a minute more than any defenseman expected to be with the club next season, with only Dion Phaneuf (now with the Kings) and Johnny Oduya (free agent) closer than Ben Harpur’s 1:43 average.

That’s a heavy load for Ceci under noted defensive coach Guy Boucher, and one that has limited any offensive upside he showed as a young player. Ceci recorded just 19 points last season, with only 14 of those coming at even-strength. That doesn’t give him a lot of firepower when going into contract negotiations, as defensive metrics are harder to argue. Still, he should see a raise on the $2.8MM he earned in 2017-18, especially if he signs long-term. Ceci is on track to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020 since he started his career so young, meaning anything longer than a two-year contract will be buying out UFA years.

F Mark Stone – Though Ceci is important, it all comes down to Stone this summer for the Senators as they look to lock up their best offensive player. Any contract Stone signs will send him to unrestricted free agency at its conclusion, meaning both sides will probably be looking for a long-term deal. The 26-year old is coming off arguably his best season even though he played in just 58 games due to injury, as he was more than a point-per-game player during those contests. With 62 points on the year he registered his fourth consecutive 20+ goal, 50+ point season and is one of the league’s top takeaway artists, able to strip the puck from unsuspecting defensemen with ease.

Nearly everyone that watches the Senators on a regular basis realizes that Stone is an elite player in the NHL, but unfortunately for the club (and their frustrated ownership) that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s very well-known around the league to fans of other teams. That might help them in negotiations, as his lack of All-Star notoriety may keep his cap hit relatively reasonable. After earning an average of $3.5MM for the past three seasons, it’s not out of the question that he could double his salary should he sign long-term, and end up with a contract like Evander Kane’s recent seven-year, $49MM deal.

Other RFAs: D Fredrik Claesson, G Chris Driedger, F Nick Moutrey, F Nick Paul

Key Unrestricted Free Agent: D Chris Wideman – If Ceci has been overused in his time in Ottawa, the opposite could be said for Wideman who despite good possession statistics and excellent offensive pedigree has averaged just under 14 minutes a night during his Senators career. This season was even more disappointing for the 28-year old defenseman, as he tore his hamstring in November and played only 16 games all year. He had eight points in those 16 contests, showing off the ability that made him a 61-point player in the AHL in 2014-15, but never could return before the end of the year despite his hard rehab schedule.

Wideman seems like he’s destined to go unsigned by the Senators, unless of course they’ve made the decision to trade Karlsson after all. If they do end up moving their captain, bringing back a good puck-moving right-handed defenseman like Wideman makes a lot of sense. Otherwise there isn’t a lot of room for him on a club that looks like it will have at least six NHL defensemen already under contract. Perhaps since he missed most of the season Wideman wouldn’t be looking for much of a raise on his $800K salary from 2017-18, but with the free agent market thin on talent from the right side there ought to be plenty of suitors for his services come July 1.

Other UFAs: F Tyler Randell, F Mike Blunden, F Max Reinhart

Projected Cap Space: Ottawa only has around $60MM committed for next season, and with the cap ceiling expected to climb to something around $80MM there is plenty of room for Stone and Ceci to be re-signed without hamstringing the team on the free agent market. That said, the Senators have never been a team to spend heavily on big name free agents and have an owner that sets an internal budget separate from the league’s cap. After a season at the bottom of the league without playoff revenue, it’s not clear how flush with cash the Senators will be this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Early Notes: Offer Sheets, Kane, Yakupov

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After another two teams were eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, more and more focus is shifting to the offseason and how free agency will shake out. As always, there will be speculation about the potential of an offer sheet being signed with one of the many high profile restricted free agents, and Rory Boylen of Sportsnet is here to break down how it all works.

Boylen also lists several players that could be signed to a sheet, including Mark Stone, Jacob Trouba, Mathew Dumba, William Nylander and others. One of the most interesting names listed, and one to keep an eye on all summer is William Karlsson of the Vegas Golden Knights. After a 43-goal breakout season, there is no one who can definitively say what he’s worth or what he’ll be asking for in negotiations this summer.

  • Evander Kane was playing with a separated shoulder during the playoffs, according to Kevin Kurz of The Athletic, which could at least partially explain why he struggled in the San Jose Sharks’ final series against the Vegas Golden Knights. The Sharks have a decision to make now on Kane, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st. Should they sign him to a contract extension, they’ll be forced to upgrade the second-round pick sent to Buffalo at the trade deadline to a first rounder.
  • Just like last summer, the idea that Nail Yakupov could return to Russia and the KHL is already starting to percolate. After another disappointing season that saw the 2012 first-overall pick register just 16 points in 58 games for the Colorado Avalanche, he’s scheduled to become a restricted free agent once again. Adrian Dater of BSN Denver asked Yakupov’s agent directly about a potential return to Russia, who answered simply “he’s a grown man, and he will decide what’s best for him.” Last spring we examined the opportunity that the KHL could offer, before he eventually decided to give the NHL another shot.

East Notes: Flyers Draft Picks, Hart, Senators

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With two picks in the top-20 of the upcoming draft, the Flyers could be poised to make some noise.  GM Ron Hextall has been aggressive in going after specific prospects he likes and the 14th and 19th selections give him a variety of options.  Despite a tendency to move up, Hextall told John Boruk of NBC Sports Philadelphia that there’s no guarantee he’ll be looking to do so once again:

“We’ll look at everything with those picks. I’m not saying we move them or move up. I don’t know. I don’t know what’s going to come our way. You sit here and you might want this or that. Someone else is going to want the same things you want.”

On top of having an extra first-rounder, the Flyers also have two selections in the fifth and seventh rounds so there will certainly be opportunities for Hextall to be active on the draft floor.

Elsewhere around the East:

  • Still with Philly, Flyers goaltending prospect Carter Hart received a pair of accolades today. The WHL announced its end-of-season award winners and Hart not only won the Goaltender of the Year award (for the third straight year), he also took home the Player of the Year honors.  Hart posted a stellar 1.60 GAA and a .947 SV% in 41 appearances, leading some to wonder if he could make a run at a regular NHL spot next season, a rarity for goalies coming out of the junior ranks.
  • The Senators have held preliminary contract discussions with pending restricted free agent winger Mark Stone and Cody Ceci, GM Pierre Dorion acknowledged in an interview on TSN 1200 in Ottawa (audio link). However, there is no indication that new deals are imminent.  The Sens also have decisions to make on a pair of pending unrestricted free agents in blueliner Chris Wideman and winger Magnus Paajarvi; Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the team has interest in keeping both players around.  Wideman’s case, in particular, will be an interesting one as he was quite productive in a limited role this season (eight points in 16 games) before suffering a hamstring injury that ended his season back in November.

Snapshots: Hutton, Jarnkrok, Stone

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Just a couple of years ago, Canucks defenseman Ben Hutton was viewed as a key cog in their future plans.  Fast forward to today and the 24-year-old is coming off a campaign where he failed to score a goal in 61 games and spent considerable time as a healthy scratch.  Following their loss on Saturday, he acknowledged to Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Province that “a restart button would be nice”.

While the implication in the article is that Hutton would welcome a fresh start with Vancouver next season after being called out on multiple occasions by head coach Travis Green, Botchford notes that many around the team have Hutton pegged as a possible trade candidate this summer.  He carries a cap hit of $2.8MM through next year which also serves as his qualifying offer in June of 2019 and if his role doesn’t change with the Canucks for next season, he’d certainly be a non-tender candidate.  Accordingly, it may make sense for the team to look to move him this offseason even though they’d be selling low.

More from around the league:

  • The Predators are getting closer to getting one of their forwards back, potentially in time for the start of the playoffs. GM David Poile told reporters, including NHL.com’s Robby Stanley (Twitter link) that center Calle Jarnkrok is making progress and is now listed as day-to-day.  The 26-year-old has been out for nearly a month due to an upper-body injury.  His eventual return should boost an already-deep Nashville lineup that heads into the postseason as the Presidents’ Trophy winners.
  • While many are wondering if the Senators will be spending big on a possible contract extension for defenseman Erik Karlsson, that’s not the only big-money decision they’ll have to make. Winger Mark Stone is heading for restricted free agency this summer and is coming off his third 60-plus point season in the past four years.  What’s particularly noteworthy about that mark this year is that he recorded 62 points (20-42-62) in just 58 games.  Accordingly, Postmedia’s Ken Warren speculates that a new deal for Stone could approach $8MM per year which would represent a significant jump on the $4.5MM salary he earned this season (with a cap hit of $3.5MM).  He is one year away from unrestricted free agency eligibility so the team won’t be able to use multiple RFA years to lower the cap hit a little bit.

Injury Update: Stone, Marchand, Duclair, Crawford, Nutivaara, Bishop

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Ottawa Senators winger Mark Stone will not be making the trip to Florida for their game against the Panthers on Monday, according to Ottawa Sun’s Don Brennan. Stone suffered a leg injury after colliding with Calgary’s Micheal Ferland on Friday.

Brennan added that Ottawa coach Guy Boucher said today that he did not know whether the injury would keep Stone out of the lineup short-term or long-term. The loss of Stone would be another disappointment in the Senators’ season. Stone has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing season. The 25-year-old already has broken his career-high in assists with 42 and is on track to have a career-high in goals. He currently has 22 this season. He was one of the few untouchable players at the trade deadline this season.

  • The Boston Bruins announced that Brad Marchand would miss Sunday’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks with an upper body injury. The move has received a lot of attention as the forward was yanked at the last minute before the game, just one day after Marchand had another collision with a player, this time with Chicago’s Anthony Duclair. Many believe the team held him out as a precaution from potential retribution.
  • Speaking of Duclair, Tracey Myers of NHL.com writes that Duclair was wearing a walking boot on his right leg this morning. Coach Joel Quenneville said yesterday after the game that Duclair is expected to miss one to two weeks. Myers added that goaltender Corey Crawford is still not skating with the team, although he is working out on his own.
  • Steve Gorten of the Columbus Dispatch writes that good news could be coming for two players with the Columbus Blue Jackets as defensemen Dean Kukan and Markus Nutivaara are both practicing in full gear and may be close to returning to the team. Kukan and Nutivaara were both injured in the same game on Feb. 16. Kukan, who has been out with an upper-body injury, has appeared in 10 games for Columbus this year. Nutivaara has been on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. He has played in 51 games so far this season with three goals and 15 assists.
  • Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News writes that Dallas Stars goaltender Ben Bishop, who has been out since Mar. 5 with a knee injury, skated today with no pads and is scheduled to skate tomorrow with pads. No word on how soon, the veteran goaltender is expected to return. The 31-year-old has played 51 games for Dallas, posting a 2.49 GAA and a solid .917 save percentage.

Senators Notes: Dorion, Anselmi, Karlsson

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Armed with a new three-year extension, Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion has a tough task ahead of him, but he has already said that change is coming. He has stated that he has been listening to offers for the entire team with the exception of captain Erik Karlsson, winger Mark Stone and defenseman Thomas Chabot after a tough season which sees them in seventh place in the Atlantic Division after a season in which they went to the Eastern Conference finals last season.

The Ottawa Citizen’s Bruce Garrioch writes the real question is how big of a change will Dorion want to make at the deadline or during the offseason. Names have surfaced range from Mike Hoffman, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Cody Ceci, Dion Phaneuf and Johnny Oduya.

“The phone is always busy,” Dorion said. “We’ve put ourselves in the position that we are and people know that last year we had a lot of players that were key components to us getting to the final four teams. I think other teams are looking at us. We have the assets, but we’re going to make good hockey deals and that’s very important for this organization.”

The Senators are looking for established young players, who have NHL experience already as well as high-end prospects and picks. Of course, the team is unlikely to trade their whole team away either.

“These next three weeks are very important for the team that we need to set in place for the following years,” Dorion said. “At the same time, branding something, telling people exactly what our plan is, isn’t the best course of action. There will be changes that will be made.”

  • Tom Brennan of The Ottawa Sun writes that the Ottawa Senators front office mayhem continued last week when they announced that president and CEO Tom Anselmi would be vacating his role. The scribe believes he resigned three weeks ago, because of what one source described as “craziness.” In 24 months, the Senators have gone through two presidents, three chief financial officers and three chief marketing officers. With the team struggling in attendance, hiring Dorion to an extension might have been one of the smartest moves owner Eugene Melnyk has done in quite a while and shows that he wants stability within the organization.
  • The Ottawa Sun’s Ken Warren writes that with the news that the Senators are taking a step back and trying to rebuild the team will only hasten the departure of Karlsson. Why would Karlsson want to stay on a team with front office instability and has already admitted they intend to rebuild? On top of that, Warren believes the team likely doesn’t want to commit $80-$100MM. It looks more likely the team would be more likely to shed salary.
  • In the same article, Warren also points out that Dorion still has a lot to prove as general manager. While he’s drafted well, some of Dorion’s moves have been questionable, including trading prospect Jonathan Dahlen for fourth-liner Alexandre Burrows, whose contract is only holding the team back. Exposing defenseman Marc Methot in the expansion draft didn’t help as he was a great partner to Karlsson. The scribe also adds that he believes the team overpaid for both Pageau and Smith.

Mark Stone, Patrick Maroon Interested In Signing Extensions

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While many players are worried about which team they’ll be suiting up for in just a few weeks, two are already thinking about inking extensions in the summer. Mark Stone and Patrick Maroon both spoke about wanting to stay in their respective cities, though they may find different outcomes as the deadline approaches.

Mark StoneFirst Stone, who told Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia that he wants to stay with the Ottawa Senators long-term and has little doubt the two sides will come to an agreement when he hits restricted free agency this summer. Stone is in the last season of his three-year, $10.5MM contract and has developed into the Senators best forward on most nights. Despite missing the last seven games due to injury, Stone leads the Senators in scoring with 44 points in 44 games and is arguably the league’s best takeaway artist.

Stone will deserve a huge raise if the Senators want to sign him long-term, as he has just a single season left before being eligible for unrestricted free agency. Turning 26 in May, he could demand a contract along the lines of some of the game’s elite wingers. Depending on how Ottawa feels about their finances as they move towards Erik Karlsson’s 2019 unrestricted free agency, Stone’s contract could come with some substantial hurdles. Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf remain on the books with huge cap hits, and owner Eugene Melnyk has hinted in the past that the Senators would need to cut salary.

Then there is Maroon, who is headed towards unrestricted free agency this summer. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required), Maroon’s representatives have already touched base with the Edmonton Oilers to discuss an extension, though if things can’t be completed in the next few weeks one would have to believe a trade could be the result. Even with the Oilers’ recent surge they remain more than ten points out of a playoff spot and have to be looking towards next season and beyond.

Maroon has found his game in Edmonton and developed into an effective player, but with the Oilers heading into Connor McDavid’s eight-year $100MM contract and Leon Draisaitl already earning $8.5MM per season, they have to be very careful with how they divide the rest of their salary cap. Even though Maroon is on pace to come short of his career-high of 27 goals set last season, he should still get a raise on the $2MM cap hit he currently carries.

The fact that Maroon is relatively inexpensive this season—he would come with only a prorated $1.5MM cap hit since Anaheim is still retaining part of his salary—also increases his trade value. Edmonton could potentially use him as a rental at the deadline, only to try and re-sign him in the summer months. That’s a tricky game to play though, as things can change quickly in the NHL, especially if Maroon were to go to a team with a good chance at the Stanley Cup. There’s no telling what could change his mind and cause him to sign elsewhere after hitting the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Minor Transactions: 02/06/18

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As always, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves around the league right here. Make sure to refresh throughout the day.

  • According to the AHL transaction page, the Anaheim Ducks have recalled Nicolas Kerdiles from the minor leagues, though it is unclear what the corresponding move is to make room for him. Kerdiles has played in just two games for the Ducks this season, but has 19 points in 23 games for the AHL’s San Diego Gulls.
  • The Ottawa Senators have recalled Max McCormick once again, as they deal with injuries to Bobby Ryan and Mark Stone. McCormick is still looking for his first NHL point this season, after being held scoreless in his first three games.
  • After spending time as a healthy scratch recently, Michael Bournival will return to the Syracuse Crunch to get back into some game action. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward has played in only four NHL games this season, but is a key part of the AHL attack.

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