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Draft Notes: Suzuki, Makar, Hischier, Patrick

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The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy believes that Owen Sound’s Nick Suzuki could very well be the steal of the draft. Suzuki, who has seen explosive growth in his draft stock, scored 96 points (45-51) in 65 games. Suzuki passes the standard and advanced stats test for many. Kennedy writes:

Scouts love his skill and his compete level. What’s even more intriguing is that, by advanced stats that I have seen, Suzuki was the best possession forward in the entire draft class – better than Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier by a mile.

NHL.com’s Mike Morreale writes that NHL Central Scouting tagged Suzuki as the tenth best prospect in North America, while scout Matt Ryan regards Suzuki as a “consistent prospect” who continuously improved as the season went on. Ryan also notes that had one of the “toughest schedule against the toughest competition,” and still managed to produce eye popping numbers and performances. While there are a glut of centers primed to be taken in the top ten, it would not be shocking to see Suzuki crack the top ten.

  • Could Cale Makar be the first overall pick? The Calgary Herald’s Wes Gilbertson reports that one scout who spoke to TSN’s Bob McKenzie said he would take Makar first overall if he had that pick. Gilbertson writes that the “smooth skating” defenseman won’t be waiting long in Chicago for his name to be called, and that 27 teams were interested in talking to him at the NHL scouting combine. Picks in the top ten will be heavy with defensemen and centers, and Makar appears to be one who could have his name called as early as the top three. Some scouts have even compared him to Erik Karlsson, who was the fifteenth pick overall in the 2008 NHL draft. Adding more to this theory, ESPN Insider Corey Pronman predicts that Makar will be selected by New Jersey at number one instead of  Hischier or Patrick.
  • On the topic of Hischier and Patrick, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Sam Carchidi adds to the speculation that the Devils could very well take a defenseman at #1, which would give the Flyers the first crack at the two centers. Carchidi writes, however, that neither center cares who goes first. Both players had dinner with Flyers GM Ron Hextall in separate gatherings, and Patrick believes he is fully recovered from the injuries he fought through during the 2016-17 season. Regardless of who they pick, the Flyers will sit pretty should the Devils take a defenseman and leave two prized centermen for Philadelphia.

NHL Awards Preview

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Caught up in the excitement of the Expansion Draft, it’s easy to forget that there is also an awards show tonight. Yes, the best trophy in all of sports, the Stanley Cup, has already been presented to the Pittsburgh Penguins, as has the Conn Smythe Trophy for playoff MVP to their captain, Sidney Crosby. Crosby also already locked up the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy for the most regular season goals. Edmonton Oilers wunderkind Connor McDavid captured the Art Ross Trophy for the most regular season points as well. Braden Holtby locked up the William M. Jennings Trophy already too, as the Washington Capitals allowed the least amount of goals against in the regular season. Yet, all three of these players and many more still have a lot on the line tonight. Here are the nominees for tonight’s NHL Awards:

Hart Trophy – Most Valuable Player

Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets

  • Star goalie helped to lead the Blue Jackets to their best record in franchise history, all while topping the league in save percentage (.931) and goals against average (2.06)

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

  • The NHL’s leading goal-scorer and back-to-back winner of the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

  • 20-year-old phenom led the league in points and assists and took his team from the draft lottery to the second round of the playoffs

Norris Trophy – Best Defenseman

Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks

  • Not only led all defenseman in scoring with 76 points, but finished ninth overall among some of the league’s most dynamic forwards. Can check with the best of them as well.

Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

  • A down year for the Bolts was a career year for Hedman, who finished just four points behind Burns with 72, and led all blue liners with 56 assists

Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

  • If this award had been voted on after the playoffs, it might have been a different result. The NHL’s best puck-mover may still pull it off behind a 71-point campaign and an improved defensive game

Read more

Golden Knights Will Not Select Young Lightning Defensemen

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It has been rumored for some time that the Tampa Bay Lightning and GM Steve Yzerman had struck a deal with the Vegas Golden Knights and GM George McPhee to steer them away from certain players. The Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith has added some concrete names to that speculation this afternoon, reporting that Vegas would not select young Bolts’ defensemen Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. The pair were left exposed as Tampa Bay chose to protect Norris Trophy finalist Victor Hedman, his partner Anton Stralman, and veteran Braydon Coburn. 

Dotchin, 23, skated in 35 games with the Lightning as a rookie in 2016-17 and recorded 11 points along the way. At 6’3″, 210-lbs., the bruising blue liner played major minutes for Tampa and proved to be a reliable stay-at-home option. Koekkoek, also 23, was the tenth overall pick in the 2012 NHL Draft by the Bolts, and has played in 41 career NHL games over the past three season, including 29 this past year. Although Koekkoek has been able to move the puck well and score at the AHL level, he has yet to find the same consistency and success at the NHL level. Nevertheless, he has shown promise and the Lightning were not willing to lose he or Dotchin for nothing

So what is the deal that protected the pair? Speculation earlier today from Smith was that the Lightning may be offering up the rights to prominent Russian prospect Nikita Gusev as part of the deal. Smith pondered if that would be in exchange for protecting the young defenseman or in exchange for selecting the bad contract of veteran blue liner Jason Garrison. While it still remains unknown who the Knights will take from Tampa, the confirmation that it will not be Dotchin or Koekkoek alone could mean that Gusev is on his way to Vegas, where former SKA St. Petersburg teammate Vadim Shipachyov has already signed.

 

Islanders Likely To Move Grabovski And 15th Overall To Vegas

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Arthur Staple of Newsday has had to deal with multiple changes in story for the Islanders in the wake of their bizarre protection scheme released yesterday. It seems as though the rationale behind that suspect arrangement might finally be coming to light.

According to Staple, there is a complicated arrangement between Vegas and the Islanders to move Mikhail Grabovski to the team as well as steer Vegas’ pick by enticing them with a 1st-round selection (#15). The 33 year-old Grabovski has had massive concussion issues which kept him sidelined all last season. There’s a very real possibility that Grabovski never fully recovers to full form, so this would be a pure cap dump from the perspective of Vegas. He hasn’t played over 60 games in a season since 2012, and although he has posted decent offensive numbers, he’s never broken 60 points. His contract is worth $5 MM and only runs for another season. It remains to be seen what enticement Vegas will need in order to take on that contract.

The 1st round pick will be offered to Vegas in exchange for their staying away from certain players. As of now, it seems probable that this means the protection of Brock Nelson and/or Calvin de Haan, as other names have been floated with little confirmation. Nikolai Kulemin could be a possible intriguing draft target for Vegas – it would help the cap situation of Garth Snow even further and he has a tight connection with Grabovski. Kulemin is also only under contract for another season, at $4.19 MM.

Even in light of this this information, the whole arrangement seems wildly unnecessary and convoluted. However, If Vegas is willing to take on injured players contracts and cap dumps, as this deal would imply, it may keep the doors open for players such as Toronto’s Joffrey Lupul.  If there are any further details that break before Vegas’ selections, we at PHR will be on top of the development.

Entry Draft Notes: Avalanche, Stars, Flyers

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The Colorado Avalanche seem to be at least entertaining the possibility of moving down in the draft. According to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post, the team is split internally over whether to select the best player available or to draft a dynamic defenseman, which is their biggest organizational need at the moment. Finding the proper balance between these two philosophies is always difficult, and ultimately, the scouts are the ones who need to believe in a particular player. It is interesting to note that Chambers doesn’t see defender Cale Makar being taken that early in the draft, and that the Avalanche might be “stuck” selecting another forward. Makar actually got votes for the top pick from one of TSN’s analysts, and there are many who believe he will hop into the top-5. Bob McKenzie actually had him slotted in at that #4 spot, so it’s a bit difficult to determine what the Avalanche are thinking here.

If the organization did decide to trade to a lower pick, as director of amateur scouting Alan Hepple says is “a scenario…that they’re ready for”, it would likely include a piece that will provide more immediate help for the team. After a 48 point season, that could mean plugging a hole at practically any position. It’s a lot to consider, especially in light of the Matt Duchene trade rumors which haven’t stopped swirling since they began halfway through the season. This article will only keep more eyes peeled on the team from Denver headed into Friday’s draft.

  • The Flyers don’t seem to have the blinders on regarding their #2 selection, according to Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  They are spending most of their time and energy focusing on the later rounds. This makes sense for any team with a top selection, but especially for Philadelphia who will almost certainly draft whichever of Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier remains. The team is heavily invested in looking to load up on offensive talent, and with 11 picks in this year’s draft, they’ve set themselves up very well. One of the major criticisms for the team in recent drafting has been the over-emphasis on physicality and intangibles, while ignoring more dynamic offensive players. We’ll see if they can avoid that pitfall this weekend.
  • The Stars look to be leaning away from the big Windsor forward Gabriel Vilardi, according to Sean Shapiro of NHL.com. He also speculates that Dallas is particularly high on the aforementioned Makar and HIFK’s shifty Miro Heiskanen. They look to be focusing on defense for another draft, and with their top-end offense it’s no wonder why. They just exposed Cody Eakin to Vegas because of their glut of center-men, and even though Vilardi is an exceptional, versatile forward – he’s not a need. Both Makar and Heiskanen were ranked in the top-5 final rankings by McKenzie, so it’s difficult to see Dallas moving from their #3 position.

Should Vegas Corner Goalie Market?

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With the recent trade of Mike Smith to Calgary, the market for starting goaltenders is dwindling even further. An interesting dynamic for the Vegas Golden Knights as they choose their team will be whether they opt to select every quality goalie out there in order to flip them to other teams. There are quite a few available – Marc-Andre Fleury of Pittsburgh, Eddie Lack (and Cam Ward) of Carolina, Calvin Pickard of Colorado, Antti Raanta of New York, Petr Mrazek of Detroit, Roberto Luongo of Florida, Jaroslav Halak of the Islanders, Michal Neuvirth of Philadelphia, Peter Budaj of Tampa Bay, and Philipp Grubauer of Washington, with a few interesting prospects also exposed.  As we’ve seen in the past few seasons, dealing a goaltender for anything remotely resembling fair value can be an enormous challenge. The salary cap has really warped the value of a solid starting goaltender in a way that has not been totally beneficial to the players.

One down season and a tender’s value goes down quite heavily. The top ten goalies in the league always seem to find a home on the rare occasion they hit unrestricted free agency, but that has been a rare occurrence. Many might point to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final when they isolate a particular moment that the highly-paid goaltender became an oddity. In that Final, Michael Leighton, third-string for Philadelphia, faced off against the very pedestrian Antti Niemi, who was then  sacrificed for cap reasons. With the whole league watching, these teams ascended to hockey’s main stage with relative no names in the crease. While that moment may have been particularly damaging, the moment for me was the fiasco that was the Luongo and Cory Schneider trade saga in Vancouver, which lasted parts of 2 seasons. Then Canucks GM Mike Gillis had a terrible time finding a suitor for Luongo before finally being forced to ship Schneider off in the 2013 offseason for a 9th round pick. This too, was terrible value, considering that Schneider was one of the best young goalies in the league and coming off a scorching season where he had a .937 save percentage. This ordeal took place less than two years after Luongo had taken the team to its first Final since 1994. Granted, Luongo’s contract was considered a bit of an albatross, but it very publicly cemented the value of goaltenders on the trade market as minimal.

Looking forward to the present day, and the last two goaltenders have been traded for rather uninspiring returns. Arizona’s Smith only fetched a 3rd rounder, and Ben Bishop only netted a 4th from Dallas. GM George McPhee could end up hosting a goaltender buffet, with few paying customers. He would be wise to gauge the interest of other teams before deciding on their selections in net. They obviously want to draft a solid starter and a few young goaltenders as future cornerstones. They need to draft 3, and it’s difficult to envision them drafting less than 4 with the enticing names available out there. But if they decide to go into 5 or 6 goaltender territory, McPhee could manufacture a logjam that could be difficult to sort out. After all, only the WInnipeg Jets are truly desperate for a starting goaltender, and that’s assuming they don’t want one of Brian Elliott, Mike Condon, or another UFA to be their partner for Connor Hellebuyck. Philadelphia could be interested in a younger asset, and there are always teams who will desperately seek a starter mid-season when a keeper inevitably goes down to injury. That said, the market simply doesn’t favor the strategy of going all-in in net.

Vegas Storming 1st Round Of Draft

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The Vegas Golden Knights are in an odd position, where they control a strong negotiating position over teams who don’t want to lose valuable roster players. Vegas is under no obligation to comply with any requests, and can essentially extort other teams for maximum return. If Anaheim wants to protect Josh Manson, for example, Vegas will play hardball. They will do so for two reasons: first, the better the player, the more important he will be to a future Knights team, and two, they have no incentive not to take that player for anything less than an optimal return. GM George McPhee is already looking to have a better competitive jump-start than any previous NHL expansion team by a significant margin. And it doesn’t look as though he will opt out of choosing the best available players for anything short of a ransom. Some teams might be desperate enough to do so.

Vegas is already assumed to have three picks, and could easily snag more. They have their own pick at #6, and are believed to have side-deals with Columbus and the New York Islanders in order to acquire the #24 and #15 picks, respectively. Anaheim is definitely in discussions to keep Manson and possibly even Sami Vatanen, who they desperately tried to trade for value before Saturday’s roster freeze. It’s quite conceivable that picks are in play there, but Anaheim no longer has its 2017 first after trading it to Dallas for Patrick Eaves.

Other teams who will be desperate to keep players include Nashville, who would lose James Neal, Chicago, who have exposed Trevor van Riemsdyk, and San Jose, who could lose one of Paul Martin or David Schlemko. If those teams, or any other organization, really want to hang onto particular players, there’s a very real possibility they will need to surrender a top pick.

For historical reference, only one team has ever drafted with 5 first-round picks – the 1974 Montreal Canadiens. The last team who had 4 first-round picks was the 1999 New York Islanders, when they selected Tim Connolly at #5. If Vegas could amass yet another first round pick, or even two, it would put them in an incredibly enviable position headed into the Entry Draft. The importance of flash and showmanship is rarely overlooked in the City of Lights, and the team looks to continue that philosophy by embracing the saga that the expansion draft has become.

Mrazek Exposed Due To “Attitude”

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In one of the more surprising exposures of an action-packed Sunday, Petr Mrazek was left un-shielded by the Red Wings in favor of his senior backup Jimmy Howard. The reason why is even more surprising.

Howard ($5.292 MM) earns more than Mrazek (4.0 MM), and has an extra year on his contract. More shocking is the difference in age – Howard is 33 whereas Mrazek is only 25, still young for a goaltender in development. Howard has started far fewer games the last two seasons, only 24 in 2016-17. He did perform statistically well and rebounded with a .927 save percentage, whilst Mrazek posted a .908. Still, when Mrazek was on the list of those exposed, many assumed Detroit GM Ken Holland had negotiated a side-deal with Vegas to protect the tender. Not the case, apparently.

According to Holland, “I’m not spending any future assets to hang onto players”, which is as cut-and-dry a response as we’ve seen. Ansar Khan of Michigan Live states that the Wings passed on Mrazek in their expansion list due to a combination of “performance and attitude”. He even went so far as to claim that Mrazek is believed by some in the organization to be “too cocky for his own good”. The article even mentions Mrazek’s alleged unhappiness with the inability of Holland to trade Howard after the 2015-16 season.

Mrazek certainly had a better season in 2015-16, and contract negotiations did drag on for quite some time before the parties settled on a two-year deal. Mrazek was one of the most surprising goalies in that year, helping sneak the team in for their 25th consecutive playoff berth behind a mediocre defense. At the age of 23, it looked certain that the era of Howard in Hockeytown was nearing a close. After his pitfalls through 50 starts last season, management obviously decided that risking Mrazek would not hurt the team in a sizable way. If any trades were attempted to deal Mrazek, they were apparently quite unsuccessful.

Regardless of how toxic the relationship between the parties is, these sentiments might scare Vegas off of placing a claim. They certainly have a plethora of other options available around the league to tend net or flip for picks. Detroit certainly won’t be hurting for goaltending now that Jared Coreau has led the Grand Rapids Griffins to an AHL championship and is ready for prime-time. But if off-ice issues truly are a concern, and Vegas doesn’t select Mrazek, Detroit could have a very tense situation on their hands next season.

Islanders’ Perplexing Side-Deal With Vegas

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As I briefly mentioned in a previous article, the New York Islanders decided to travel a very perplexing road with their protection list. They shielded only 3 forwards, and protected 5 defensemen, allowing a whole host of forwards to be claimed.  These include Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Casey Cizikas, Nikolai Kulemin, and Josh Bailey at the upper end of the spectrum. Defenseman Calvin de Haan, who has reportedly has had difficulty coming to a deal with management on a new contract, is also left at Vegas’ disposal

What complicates matters is that Arthur Staple of Newsday has been insinuating that the Islanders have a deal in place to protect Nelson, Strome, and de Haan, while others, such as Darren Dreger, believes the deal only applies to forwards.  NHL Numbers stated today that the protection agreement would protect only Bailey and Cizikas, which is easily the most disastrous deal of the group. From a pure value standpoint, Nelson, de Haan and Strome have far more value than either player. Staple believed yesterday evening that the Islanders were going to trade their 15th overall selection in order to push Vegas in a favorable direction. Even still, it doesn’t explain the particulars of the players protected.

John Tavares is an obvious keeper, and Andrew Ladd helped the offense in a big way after a rocky start. Anders Lee is coming off a phenomenal 34 goal season in only his 3rd full outing. The defense revolves around Nick Leddy and Travis Hamonic, and despite his steps backward Johnny Boychuk is a big minute eater for the team. You could have made a case for Ryan Pulock over Boychuk, and made that quite convincingly, but it seemed inevitable that team would lose a defender no matter what. Boychuk did have an NMC, which complicated that matter. Considering that the team was 17th in goals against this past season, that wasn’t exactly a worst-case scenario.

Instead of taking the orthodox 4-4 route and protecting Nelson or Strome as well as Pulock or de Haan, or protecting all but one forward in a 7-3 scheme, the Islanders chose instead to protect a relative no-name in Adam Pelech. Pelech had a solid season, to be sure, but he is a bottom-pairing defenseman and doesn’t project as a difference maker. By opting to leave these players exposed, they take a large aspect of the decision making out of their own hands. GM Garth Snow sacrificed a first round pick and a certain degree of autonomy to protect two forwards, when they could instead have done that on their own. If the end goal was to entice Vegas into selecting Thomas Hickey, they could have done so without the bizarre protection structure. This isn’t even delving into the insanity of surrendering a first-round selection to protect one mid-level player over another.

All in all, the Islanders and GM Garth Snow have stolen the show today for most bewildering decision. Unless the deal with Vegas is far more encompassing than it appears at the moment, they are looking to lose a solid contributor and a 1st-round pick when both could have been avoided.

 

The original article incorrectly linked Dylan Strome.

Metropolitan Division Offers Vegas Multiple Goalies, Project Players

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The Metropolitan Division was undoubtedly the most competitive last season, with 3 of the league’s top 5 points finishers within it, including the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. Some teams in the Metro have prepared poorly, while others look to take a minor hit and move on from expansion relatively unscathed. No major surprises exist outside of Brooklyn, where the Islanders took the crown for the most unorthodox and confounding strategy.

The Penguins seem to have known for quite some time that Marc-Andre Fleury was Vegas bound. GM Jim Rutherford balked at trade offers last off-season despite the goalie’s no-movement clause potentially complicating matters further down the line. The organization finally asked him to waive his clause in February, and both parties seem willing to move on. Rutherford did seem to be leaning toward the 7-3-1 model originally, but eventually opted to go with the 4-4 route to protect both Olli Maatta and Justin Schultz. If for whatever reason Fleury is not chosen, playoff performer Bryan Rust is almost certainly the claim. Columbus’ list is about what we expected, but it still seems strange to see Josh Anderson and Jack Johnson are left exposed. If there is a deal in place for a 1st round pick, as reported earlier by the Columbus Dispatch, Johnson is the likely selection. He’s still got a lot of talent, and with all his international experience, he could be a great leader for younger players in Vegas.

The Philadelphia Flyers made one of the smarter (if unexpected) decisions of the day and opted to protect Scott Laughton over assistant captain Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and the streaky Michael Raffl. Jordan Weal is still left exposed, and theoretically any of the three could be headed to Vegas. The Washington Capitals are absolutely going to lose a solid player, and it’s destined to be either the very promising defenseman Nate Schmidt or standout goalie Philipp Grubauer. The Capitals knew this was coming for a long time, but it can’t hurt any less to lose assets in this fashion. A possible scenario to watch out for is whether Vegas will pursue T.J. Oshie as a free agent in the short-term. They have first dibs on negotiations if they want to open that conversation, and he’s considered by many to be the top available UFA. The team doesn’t really need another goaltender, and their defense would survive without Schmidt, even with his incredible talent.

The New Jersey Devils arguably have the weakest roster on paper at the moment, and it shows with the potential selections Vegas need to consider. Mike Cammalleri is unproductive and overpaid, Beau Bennett has all but busted when he isn’t injured, Jacob Josefson scored one goal last season, and Devante Smith-Pelly is with his third club in as many years. The New York Rangers couldn’t move Antti Raanta and now it seems probable that Vegas will take advantage. Other options would include Jesper Fast and the very productive (27 goals) Michael Grabner, neither of whom is good enough to justify passing on the solid Raanta. No surprises here, but management certainly waited until the final hour to buyout Dan Girardi – which allowed them to utilize that 7-3-1 strategy effectively. Carolina will offer up one of the worst prizes to the Golden Knights, and Lee Stempniak is the only name that truly jumps out. Long-time goalie Cam Ward finds himself on the outs, as does Eddie Lack, but when the team moved for Scott Darling this fate was very foreseeable. Perhaps management will try to entice Vegas to claim one of the keepers and help their logjam along.

The New York Islanders seem to have botched their efforts today, but there may be machinations behind the scenes which could justify such a bizarre strategy. GM Garth Snow opted to protect only 3 forwards and 5 defensemen – the only team to do so. Even worse, one of the defenseman left unprotected was Calvin de Haan. Assuming there is no deal to take a blueliner in the works, Vegas could choose de Haan or their favorite from a large selection of intriguing forwards. Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, and Ryan Strome are all available, and each provides a different skillset. McPhee could even take one of the league’s toughest bottom sixers in Casey Cizikas or a crafty, veteran Nikolai Kulemin. He has loads of options, and none of them are any good for an Islanders team who survive off their depth. Why Adam Pelech, with his 12 career points and 46.6% Corsi For in 2016-17, was worth protection over any of those names will surely be one of the draft’s greatest quandaries.

Vegas will get an opportunity to draft their starting two goaltenders from the Metro, and will have a wide assortment of options elsewhere. The Washington situation should be fun to speculate on, and trying to find a worthwhile pick in New Jersey could be an adventure for the Knights. Snow’s Islanders are just an incredible anomaly, and that list may draw some serious criticism.

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