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Learning From The Sedins

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The Vancouver Canucks are a team that is floundering to find a path forward. After nearly a decade of remarkable regular seasons and a painfully close Cup run in 2011, the Canucks are solidly in the rebuilding phase of their franchise. They start the 2017-18 off-season with the 5th overall pick and many decent, if unremarkable, options at the slot to help further that process. (An impact center is always a welcome piece.) The organization has struggled mightily to move on past the era of Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin, both of whom were consistently in the upper echelon of point-getters every season in their primes. Now 36 years-old, each player’s production has taken a nosedive. And the team hasn’t been able to draft difference makers up front to fill the void, despite this day being long anticipated.

Although wisdom is not often recognized as such until a later date, there was a sizable portion of the Canuck fanbase who had hope to move the Sedin twins just a few seasons ago. As soon as they missed the post-season in 2013-14 the writing was on the wall for the franchise. The move should have been made that season, or perhaps even the year prior. That season saw a massive decline in the twins’ production which has never fully recovered – Henrik down to 0.71 points per game from 0.93, and Daniel down to 0.64 PPG from 0.85.

The Sedins will undoubtedly have their numbers retired by the Vancouver organization and have given great years of hockey to the city. They may even be considered for the Hockey Hall of Fame, but without a Stanley Cup to their credit that will be a difficult sell. Regardless of all that, their value to the team as assets was ignored in favor of the long-shot hope that the Canucks could compete once more with their core players. Former GM Mike Gillis had an up-and-down tenure, but utterly failed to move on past aging players and his drafting didn’t help. With five 1st-round picks in his tenure, only 2013’s Bo Horvat amounted to an offensive threat for the franchise. Brendan Gaunce, Nicklas Jensen, Jordan Schroeder, and Cody Hodgson are all busts relative to their potential. Worse, their late round picks were even less successful, amounting to no notable NHLers at all. Jim Benning hasn’t exactly inspired either since taking over management duties.

Trading the Sedins would have been a phenomenally difficult undertaking, especially considering their desire to play together. But the potential return would have been substantial from any team able to fit them in (at a reduced rate). Now the hour is far too late, and the Sedins have only one season remaining on their contracts. At this point, it seems sensible to merely re-sign them and let them finish their days in British Columbia. But the opportunity squandered to recover some value from declining marquee names will haunt the franchise for years to come. That failure should serve as a warning to teams around the league that prolonging the rebuilding phase can have dire consequences.

Snapshots: Bylsma, Sedins, Red Wings

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While there has been some speculation that Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma could be on the hot seat (especially after GM Tim Murray didn’t give much of a vote of confidence yesterday), TSN’s Bob McKenzie doesn’t foresee a change being made behind the bench.  In an appearance on NBCSN, McKenzie had the following to say regarding Bylsma’s status (transcription courtesy of Fan Rag’s Chris Nichols):

“I would also think, absent some sort of cataclysmic disaster in the final two weeks of the season, that Dan Bylsma will also be back as head coach of this team next year; although that review process, as Murray said, still has to take place at the end of this season.

“I don’t think the Pegula family is keen on paying both Rex Ryan and Dan Bylsma not to coach the Bills and the Sabres, and they obviously made that decision with Rex Ryan and the Bills. At this point in time, I would suggest that Bylsma will be back.”

Bylsma is in his second season behind the Buffalo bench and while the team was clearly in a rebuilding mode when he took over, many expected the Sabres to take a significant step forward this season.  That hasn’t been the case though as they have just 72 points through 74 games and may not even match the 81 points they put up in 2015-16.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • Canucks GM Jim Benning plans to sit down with the Sedin twins at the end of the season to discuss their future with the club, reports ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun. However, LeBrun doesn’t expect that anything will happen aside from the twins playing out the final year of their contracts.  He notes that Vancouver greatly values their leadership especially as with the team being in the process of integrating several young players into their lineup.  Of course, with each player carrying a $7MM cap hit, that too will likely play a role in them sticking around for next season.
  • While the Red Wings won’t be making the postseason, they don’t plan on bringing their top prospects up to get their feet wet at the NHL level between now and the end of the year, head coach Jeff Blashill told Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Instead, the team wants to keep them with Grand Rapids of the AHL in the hopes of a lengthy postseason run and feels that’s more valuable than a short-term NHL appearance that could potentially disrupt their chances down there.  Accordingly, Detroit will look to their veterans (such as Ben Street who was shuffled up and down recently) at the minor league to fill any spots over these final few weeks.

Sidney Crosby Records 1,000th Point

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In just 787 games, Sidney Crosby has recorded his 1,000th NHL point. On a beautiful setup of Chris Kunitz, the assist made Crosby the 12th fastest player to the mark and the third to hit it this season (Alex Ovechkin and Henrik Sedin). With it, the Penguins released an interactive booklet showing the journey to 1,000 for “Sid”, who is widely considered one of the greatest players of all-time.

The booklet included quotes from players and alumni around the league, including Wayne Gretzky, Evgeni Malkin and Jonathan Toews. Malkin’s is borderline adorable as he gives it to his long-time teammate:

Hey Sid, I want to say congrats on your 1,000 points. It is a huge number. We both know that 999 [of those] points is because of my help. I have enjoyed playing with you. Every game, every night is so fun. Everyone knows that you are the best player.

Crosby hit the mark in six fewer games than another Pittsburgh legend, Jaromir Jagr, who recently recorded the 1900th point of his career. While Crosby has quite a few seasons left before he catches that ageless wonder, he is pushing himself further up the career lists. He’s only the 86th player in league history to make it to 1,000 and may even jump into the top-75 before the end of the season. He’s still 723 points behind the Penguins’ franchise leader Mario Lemieux, though it’s not so far-fetched that he may push to pass him eventually. At just 29 years old, Crosby has many years of solid hockey left to play. With no evidence of slowing down—in fact, some may say he’s speeding up—he’d need 547 more games at his current pace to tie Lemieux. That’s just six and a half seasons.

More likely he’ll go down as the best player of the post-lockout generation, and that’s still a heck of an accomplishment. Congratulations Sid.

Henrik Sedin, Alexander Ovechkin Approaching Milestone

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What better way to start the new year than by hitting a major career benchmark? We could see it happen twice this week, as Vancouver Canucks long-time center Henrik Sedin and Washington Capitals franchise forward Alexander Ovechkin are each within reach of 1,000 career regular season points. As the NHL begins it’s 100th season, just 83 players have scored 1,000 points in their career. Gordie Howe was the first to do it, back in 1960, and Patrick Marleau was the most recent addition, notching #1,000 last November. It took Marleau the most games to hit the mark, 1349 to be exact, while Wayne Gretzky did it the fastest, in 424 games, and had his second 1,000 in 857 games, just 433 games later, making him also the second fastest. The only active players on the list are Marleau, teammate Joe Thornton, Jarome Iginla, Marian Hossa and, of course, Jaromir Jagr. When will Sedin and Ovechkin join them?

Sedin currently sits at 996 points, just four points away from membership into the elite club. Sedin, and twin brother Daniel (965 career points), were drafted #2 and #3 overall by the Vancouver Canucks in 1999. They broke into the league together in 2000-01 and the rest is history. 16 years later, hockey’s ultimate siblings continue to be scoring machines in Vancouver. Henrik, now the captain of the Canucks, established himself as one of the best players in the NHL back in 2009-10, when he led the league with 83 assists and 112 points, earning both the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top scorer and Hart Trophy as MVP. Sedin went on to lead the league in assists in each of the next two seasons. Just two years ago, in 2014-15, Sedin notched 55 assists on his way to a 73-point season, showing up those who suggested he was slowing down. Now 36 years old, both Henrik and Daniel are finally starting to show their age, but Henrik is still the main man in Vancouver, sharing the team points lead of 26 with Bo Horvat. With just four points to go until 1,000, Sedin faces three opponents this week who are not exactly the toughest to score against. Vancouver hosts the Arizona Coyotes tomorrow night and then takes on the Calgary Flames in a home-and-home on Friday and Saturday. Sedin has a strong chance to join the 1,000 point club by week’s end.

Meanwhile, Ovechkin prepares to hit 1,000 at just 31 years old. The dynamic winger currently has 994 points, just six points away from becoming the fastest to 1,000 in the 21st century. The first overall pick in 2004, Ovechkin has been a star since the beginning. In his rookie season in 2005-06, the 20-year-old scored 105 points, took home the Calder Trophy in a landslide, and has never looked back. Ovechkin has had four seasons of over 100 points, including leading the league with 112 in 2007-08. He has won the Maurice Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal-scorer six times, including each of the past four years. He’s even two goals away from tying Maurice Richard himself for 29th all-time in goals. Ovechkin will hit 1,000 in no time and will likely be chasing 1,500 before we know it. But will he hit the mark this week? The Capitals square off against the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight, the upstart Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday, and then travel to Ottawa to face the Senators on Saturday night. Three good competitors are on the docket, but when it comes to scoring, never count out Ovechkin.

Pacific Division Notes: Gudbranson, Mueller

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The Vancouver Canucks finsihed 12 points behind Minnesota for the final playoff berth in the Western Conference in 2015-16 and with many of their best players – Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Alex Edler and Ryan Miller – all on the wrong side of 30, many thought it was time for the organization to embrace a full rebuild. Instead Vancouver inked veteran scoring forward Loui Eriksson in free agency and dealt young prospect Jared McCann along with a second-round pick to Florida for experienced defenseman Erik Gudbranson; moves that suggested the front office had every reason of contending in 2016-17. While the team sits just three points out of a playoff berth and with roughly two-thirds of the season remaining, it’s still more likely Vancouver will be a lottery team as opposed to a serious postseason contender. Now, with Gudbranson scheduled to reach restricted free agency next summer and likely in line for a marked raise over his $3.5MM cap hit, Vancouver will have to make a tough decision on what to do with the physical blue liner, as Jason Brough of Pro Hockey Talk writes.

As Brough explains, the Canucks have unexpectedly received strong play from rookie Troy Stecher, who has six points in 18 games, and already have Chris Tanev signed long term. Both are right-side defenders, as is Gudbranson, and a strong case can be made that they deserve top-four slots ahead of the former Florida Panther. In that case, Vancouver GM Jim Benning may not want to pay market value for Gudbranson, assuming he would be no more than a third-pair blue liner.

Benning has indicated that his newfound back end depth may allow him to trade a defenseman for a forward:

“We have depth on defense. We’ve rebuilt our defense. (Nikita) Tryamkin is 22 years old, (Troy) Stecher is 22 years old. (Alex) Edler at 30 is our oldest defenseman, so we have a young, good group back there. We have depth back there. So if we look to make a move, we’d have to use some of our depth on the blue line to add a forward.”

Gudbranson’s value is also difficult to project. The analytical community is not a fan, citing his substandard possession numbers – 48.7% career CF% – and his lack of offense. The towering blue liner has tallied just 48 career points in 336 NHL regular season games; good for a per-82-game-average of 11.7. With the league always looking for more offense and team’s prioritizing puck moving capabilities from its blue liners, there may not be as much of a trade market this summer for a player of Gudbranson’s ilk.

However, teams that value intangibles may be willing to overlook the advanced stats. But first, Vancouver has to decide whether they project Gudbranson to be a top-four defender and if not, are they going to be willing to extend the former third overall pick to a contract with an AAV in excess of $4MM or $5MM.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:

  • Defenseman Mirco Mueller has been recalled by the San Jose Sharks, according to the official website of their AHL affiliate, the San Jose Barracuda. Curtis Pashelka of the San Jose Mercury News relays that the team’s head coach, Peter DeBoer, has not yet decided whether Mueller will be in the lineup this evening. However, Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area believes it is likely the former first-round pick will sit out tonight. Mueller has appeared in 50 NHL games with the Sharks, netting one goal and four points. He has yet to suit up this season for the Sharks. Mueller has six points in 17 games with the Barracuda.

How Will The Expansion Draft Impact Canadian Teams?

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Continuing our look at different expansion draft angles,  CBC’s Amy Cleveland examines how the draft will affect the seven teams in Canada. Laying out the rules for the draft, Cleveland looks further and prognosticates who she sees as “potentially protected” versus those players who would be “intriguing” in being exposed. She further writes that all seven Canadian teams will be able to protect the bulk of their important players. The Flames sit prettiest without any non-movement clauses in contracts while the Leafs and Senators have only one player with an NMC (Nathan Horton, and Dion Phaneuf respectively).

Below are Cleveland’s picks for each team. Going to CBC’s page with the story includes in depth reasoning behind each of Cleveland’s choices.

Calgary Flames
NMC protected players: None.

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Edmonton Oilers
NMC protected players: Milan Lucic (F), Andrej Sekera (D), Cam Talbot (G)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Montreal Canadiens
NMC protected players: Carey Price (G), Jeff Petry (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Ottawa Senators
NMC protected players: Dion Phaneuf (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Toronto Maple Leafs
NMC protected players: Nathan Horton (F)

Potentially protected: 

Vancouver Canucks
NMC protected players: Loui Eriksson (F), Daniel Sedin (F), Henrik Sedin (F)

Potentially protected: 

​Intriguing exposed: 

Winnipeg Jets
NMC protected players: Dustin Byfuglien (D), Toby Enstrom (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

 

Full List Of Mandatory-Protection Players In Expansion Draft

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Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston has published the full list of players who, due to no-movement clauses in their current contracts, must be protected in the upcoming expansion draft for the new Vegas Golden Knights. These are players who will count against the protection limits should they choose not to waive their NMC rights prior to the draft.

Each team has the right to protect either:

A) Seven forwards, three defenders, one goaltender

or

B) Eight skaters, one goaltender

These players will count against those numbers, and as Johnston points out, there are some notable inclusions and omissions from this group. Players like Jordan Staal, Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan all had incorrect information spread about their contracts. The former two will now need protection, while the latter will not, due to his deal only having a no-movement to the minors clause.

The Chicago Blackhawks, with eight players listed, will have little flexibility at the draft, with only four forward spots (or one defenseman) left to use. Many others, according to Johnston, including Toronto’s Nathan Horton, are likely to be made exempt if they are still on LTIR as the draft approaches.

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Canucks Do Not Plan To Trade The Sedin Twins

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Vancouver’s slow start to the season has had many speculate about the possibility that the team could move mainstays Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin but team president Trevor Linden poured cold water on that.  Speaking with ESPN’s Craig Custance (Insider subscription required), Linden indicated that dealing the twins is not an option for the team:

“It’s not a consideration.  These guys are too important to our organization, as people. Unless they walk in my door and say, ‘Hey trade us,’ that’s never going to happen.”

The Sedins have been with Vancouver since being drafted second and third overall back in 1999.  The duo sit first and second in games played, assists, and points in franchise history (and are first and second in team scoring this season as well).  Henrik has 980 points in 1,182 career games while Daniel checks in with 951 points in 1,159 contests.

However, the Canucks find themselves in a tough spot at the moment.  While they would like to contend in the short-term, that seems unlikely to happen based on their roster and in a lot of those situations, teams will sell their veteran assets and rebuild, something that Vancouver has been hesitant to do recently.

Further presenting a challenge to the Canucks here on top of the fact that the Sedins have been the faces of the franchise for many years is their contract situation.  Both players are making $7MM through 2017-18 and have full no-move clauses.  They’ve also been a package deal in the past, meaning that if a team wants one of them, they’d have to trade for both.  In the salary cap era where many teams have limited space, finding $14MM in payroll room would be a significant challenge for any team.  Linden himself acknowledged that finances would make any potential trade quite difficult:

“I don’t know any team that can take $14 million, for starters. It’s pretty unrealistic.”

Could the Sedins at some point ask for a move in the hopes of taking one last run at a Stanley Cup?  Anything’s a possibility but it doesn’t seem likely at this point which means that the twins can continue to pad their numbers atop the Canucks record books for the foreseeable future.

[Related: Canucks Depth Chart]

What’s Next For The Vancouver Canucks?

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Last season the Vancouver Canucks reached their lowest point in more than fifteen years. They finished with 75 points, better than only the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, and missed the playoffs by a mile. As many believed that Daniel and Henrik Sedin were slowing down (as people do when they turn 35), the team looked like they should start a rebuild around some young forwards, and sell off assets for this season. After all, they were likely to get a top-three draft pick and already had Bo Horvat as a potential superstar.

Instead, they dropped to fifth in the draft and missed out on the big forwards, and then had an extremely confusing offseason period. First they traded one of their young prospects, Jared McCann for Erik Gudbranson, a still-young but much more expensive player who many in the analytics community believed was steady but mostly ineffective. McCann is off to a slow start in Florida (no points in eleven games), but still looks like he’ll eventually be a solid NHL centerman.

Next they signed Loui Eriksson, one of the summer’s biggest free agents to a huge six year, $36MM deal that will pay him through his age-36 season. Eriksson is a solid player, but hasn’t found any amount of success in Vancouver; he hasn’t scored a goal in 11 games after notching 30 last year.

Making a financial commitment of that level is usually reserved for teams looking to compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future, but Vancouver doesn’t seem like they’re poised to do that.  They’re 4-6-1 this season, and are currently down 2-1 and being out-shot by those same Maple Leafs who finished lower than them last year.  While Ryan Miller is having a solid year splitting time with the younger Jacob Markstrom, he’s a free agent next year (and 37 years old).

So what do the Canucks do now? Tearing down a team a few months after committing tens of millions in free agency isn’t a strong plan, but it may be what they have to do. Unfortunately for him, we’ll probably see the ousting of head coach Willie Desjardins, as is usually the case when things go downhill.

 

2016-17 Season Preview: Vancouver Canucks

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We’re now less than two weeks away from the start of the 2016-17 regular season. PHR continues with our season preview series, moving on to the Vancouver Canucks.

Last Season: 31 – 38 – 13 (75 points); finished sixth in the Pacific Division and missed the playoffs.

Cap Space Remaining: $2.771MM, via Cap Friendly.

Key Newcomers: Loui Eriksson (free agent – Boston); Erik Gudbrnason (trade – Florida); Philip Larsen (free agent – KHL)

Key Departures: Radim Vrata (free agent – Arizona); Jared McCann (trade – Florida); Matt Bartkowski (free agent)

Player(s) To Watch: Bo Horvat and Ryan Miller: Horvat represents a key building block for the future whereas Miller can help the Canucks compete for a playoff spot and/or become a valuable trade deadline chip.

Horvat may have already established himself as the team’s second best center after Henrik Sedin following a 40-point sophomore season and depending on how Brandon Sutter rebounds from an injury-filled 2015-16 season. While 40 points is strong production for a 20-year-old, second-year player but Horvat still needs to work on his overall game. This past season he finished with a -30 plus-minus rating and he also struggled in the puck possession department ranking 212th out of 234 forwards who played at least 800 minutes at 5v5 in Corsi For % with a 45.8%.

The third-year pivot will not only be a key contributor for the Canucks in 2016-17 campaign but his further development is an instrumental part of the organization’s roster retooling. With many of the team’s best players nearing the end of their careers – either with Vancouver or in the NHL – Horvat will be counted on to help lead the next wave of stars and to help guide the team back to the postseason.

Miller has long been regarded as one of the better goalies in the league, even if his average numbers don’t necessarily concur with that reputation. Of the 28 netminders who have seen 5,000 5v5 minutes combined over the last three seasons, Miller ranks just 22nd in Save % at 92.2%. He rated better when facing high danger chances at same strength situations, placing 15th with a HDSv% of 81.05%.

Regardless, excellent goaltending can help overcome a roster devoid of prime talent and if Miller turns in one of his better career performances in 2016-17, he may be able to keep the Canucks playoff chances alive late into the campaign.

It’s also quite likely that the team will shop Miller, who is entering the final year of his contract, ahead of the trade deadline in an effort to add futures to help speed up the rebuild. Even if no playoff contenders are in dire need of a starting goalie, an experienced option like Miller would still carry value as a backup. Since the Canucks probably would have little interest in re-signing the 13-year veteran, they might consider trading him – even for a second-round pick or less – a better option than losing him for nothing after the season.

Key Storyline: Will the Canucks fully buy in to a rebuild or continue to pretend they can be a playoff team at the same time they inject youth into the lineup? The harsh reality is the Canucks would need too many things to go right for them to make the postseason in 2016-17. Ryan Miller and Jacob Markstrom would have to provide top-notch play between the pipes. The Sedin twins will have to continue to stave off Father Time and perform at an elite level. Several of the team’s younger players – like Horvat – will need to improve further. And even if all of that goes their way it still probably wouldn’t be enough in a division that sent three teams to the postseason in 2015-16 and saw every other non-playoff squad make significant moves to improve their rosters.

Vancouver probably should have embraced the rebuild last year when they potentially could have moved some veteran assets for futures. But they shouldn’t be afraid to do so now, particularly if they don’t get off to a hot start to the season. It’s important that the organization adopts and implements a strategy that’s going to ensure on-ice success for the organization in the future as opposed to simply treading in the waters of mediocrity as they seem to be doing now.

Canucks Depth Chart

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