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Trade Candidate Profiles 2018

Trade Candidates: Mark Letestu

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With the trade deadline just days away, we continue to profile several players that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

Mark Letestu has not had a good season. In fact, in many ways this is the worst season of his NHL career. However, when Trade Deadline season rolls around each year, experienced, versatile depth forwards on expiring contracts are consistently the most common type of player dealt. Letestu fits the bill, hence the rampant speculation that he will be traded. Like Letestu, the Edmonton Oilers have not had the 2017-18 campaign they expected and have no reason to keep Letestu and, based on his play this season, are likely eager to trade him to the highest bidder. This is not a question of if Letestu will be dealt, but when and to whom.

Contract

Letestu is in the final season of a three-year, $5.4MM contract signed with the Oilers in 2015. The deal holds a $1.8MM cap hit and no trade protections.

2017-18

The 32-year-old Letestu is coming off a career-high 35 points in 2016-17. While he may not be an offensive juggernaut, Letestu has been the definition of reliable in his nine-year NHL career. He can play on the power play and penalty kill, excels at the face-off dot, and is hardly ever found taking a bad penalty. In 2017-18, he has continued to dominate the dot and play clean hockey; that’s about all he’s done right. Letestu has seen his offense disappear this season and, with it, his play time. He is currently on pace for 25 points this season, 10 fewer than last year and tied for the second-least of his career. Even worse, most of that production came earlier in the season. Letestu recorded 16 of his 18 points prior to the new year and is currently on a 24-game goal-less streak, with just two assists to show for the last two months. To qualify that lack of impact on the score sheet, consider that Letestu is still averaging more than two minutes per night on the power play as well. Between his significant power play and penalty kill time – despite no offense and a team-worst plus/minus – Letestu is left with under nine minutes a night of five-on-five time this season.

Season Stats

58 GP, 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points, -16 rating, 10 PIM, 91 shots, 12:57 ATOI, 50.7 CF%

Potential Suitors

Despite a miserable season, there continues to be immense interest in Letestu. That is not to say that the Oilers will receive an immense return when they trade him, but there will be some competition driving up the price for a player that otherwise would be worth very little. Some teams may consider Letestu’s personal struggles a function of Edmonton’s poor season and hope for a bounce back to his 2016-17 level of play with a change of scenery. Others may just see him as a specialist and continue to use him as Edmonton does – power plays, penalty kills, face-offs, and little else.

Among the teams rumored to be interested in Letestu are the Winnipeg Jets, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Toronto Maple Leafs. He would fit well as an energy line or 13th forward on any of those teams. Other squads who could use another body up front include the Los Angeles Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, and Boston Bruins, while several others are sure to do their due diligence on his availability as well. However, as The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline alluded to, the perfect fit for Letestu is likely back with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Letestu spent parts of four seasons in Columbus before signing with Edmonton, including arguably his best season in 2013-14. Not only that, but Portzline points out that Letestu and his family still call Ohio home. While too much stock is often put into familiarity when it comes to transactions and Letestu likely won’t have a say in his destination, the landing spot makes sense for other reasons as well. The Jackets are still fighting hard for a playoff spot and may not be willing to pay for a premium player with their playoff future still uncertain. Letestu will likely be more affordable and, as an added bonus, can jump right into the lineup, rejoining some past teammates and lending his experience to the many younger, newer Jackets forwards. More specifically, Columbus has also struggled greatly with special teams this season, sporting the league’s worst power play and a bottom-five penalty kill. They may have a better chance than anyone at giving Letestu an environment where he can rediscover his even strength game and scoring touch, but even if he doesn’t, he can at least help to rejuvenate the special teams.

Likelihood of a Trade

The likelihood of Letestu being traded is as close to 100% as any player on the block. The Oilers have absolutely no reason to keep him and there is high interest in his services. At some point over the next few days, Letestu will have a new home for the remaining months of the 2017-18 season.

Trade Candidate: Evander Kane

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As the trade deadline continues to creep closer and closer, we continue our profiles of players that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

Sabres winger Evander Kane is no stranger to the spotlight both on and off the ice.  He also has certainly become accustomed to being the focal point of trade speculation as his name has been in the rumor mill all season long.  At some point over the next week, it’s highly expected that he will be dealt.

Contract

Kane is in the final season of a six-year, $31.5MM contract he signed back with Winnipeg in 2012.  He is receiving a $6MM salary with his $5.25MM cap charge and he will be an unrestricted free agent in July.

2017-18

Evander KaneEven though the Sabres struggled out of the gate, Kane got off to a fantastic start offensively and was hovering around the point-per-game mark through the first 35 games of the season (33 points).  Accordingly, GM Jason Botterill set a very high asking price, one that involved a first-round pick, a conditional selection, plus a top prospect.  Based on how he was playing, it was certainly a justifiable ask as well.

Unfortunately for Buffalo, Kane hasn’t been able to sustain that level of play over the past two months.  In fact, he hasn’t even come close.  In the 25 games since then, he has just six points (4-2-6) despite still averaging over 18 minutes per night of ice time.  Now, instead of being a player providing top-line production, he has produced as a bottom-six winger despite still seeing top-line minutes.  That certainly has hurt Botterill’s leverage and has undoubtedly played a role in Kane sticking with the Sabres to this point in time.

Season Stats

60 GP, 19 goals, 20 assists, 39 points, -14 rating, 57 PIMS, 224 shots, 19:22 ATOI, 50.7 CF%

Potential Suitors

In the East, Pittsburgh has expressed an interest previously but their salary cap constraints would require them to free up a considerable amount of space before they could make a deal even if Buffalo retains on his cap hit.  In terms of a fit though, he would fit in well in a secondary role which may be the best role for him to play.  The Bruins are known to be looking for help on the wing although the acquisition cost for Kane may be higher than they’re willing to pay.  The Islanders make some sense in terms of where he could fit in but GM Garth Snow has ruled out trading top picks and prospects for rentals which takes them out of the equation.  Columbus is looking for scoring help and while he’s not a center – the position they’d prefer to add to, they’ll take help putting the puck in the net where they could get it.

Out West, his former team in Winnipeg is looking for a scoring winger but there’s no way a reunion is happening with Kane.  Nashville is also on the lookout for help on the wing but Rick Nash is believed to be their preferred target at the moment.  If a deal can’t be reached there, they could get involved in talks for Kane.  The Blues could benefit from another top-six winger but like Pittsburgh, salary cap constraints would make a deal particularly challenging as things currently stand.  If Anaheim decides to be buyers at the deadline, they would be an intriguing fit for Kane and have some prospect capital to deal from on the back end, a position that Buffalo needs help with.  However, the Ducks could turn around and be sellers depending on how these next few games go.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Considering there have been no talks about a contract extension, the odds here have to be quite high that Kane will eventually be moved.  Botterill has indicated previously that Buffalo will be willing to retain to help facilitate a trade but they may have to drop their asking price before a deal actually happens.  That’s something that the Sabres won’t want to do until they have to so this is a case that could drag out right until deadline day on the 26th.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidates: Thomas Hickey

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

Thomas Hickey’s name is not one that has been heard often this year: not in regards to trades, not in regards to his impending free agency, not in regards to his performance, not at all, really. Yet, the question is not why, but why not? Hickey is arguably enjoying his best NHL season and is a main reason why injuries didn’t tear the New York Islanders apart. Hickey has come a long way from being a fourth overall pick with chronic injury issues given away on waivers; it’s time to give him his due credit. Hickey is a dark horse candidate to be traded by the deadline if another team realizes his value and the Islanders decide they are better off trading him than keeping him.

Contract

Hickey is in the final season of a three-year, $6.6MM contract signed in 2015. The deal carries a $2.2MM cap hit – which will be count for under $600K by the deadline – and has no trade protection.

2017-18

It’s no secret that allowing goals – a league-high 214 (and it’s not close) – is what separates the New York Islanders from many other similarly skilled contenders. Yet, things could be much worse. Calvin de Haan suffered a season-ending injury in December and Johnny Boychuk has missed more than 20 games due to injury; those injuries could have broken the Isles. Add in Nick Leddy’s struggles in his own zone and the declining play of Dennis Seidenberg and, without Hickey, this could very well be a team far outside of the player picture. Instead, New York currently holds the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference and are very much in the mix to keep it. Hickey has been a solid two-way presence for the Islanders all season. Beginning the campaign as a frequent healthy scratch to now the third-leading defenseman in total ice time, behind Leddy and Adam Pelech, Hickey’s role has transformed as his performance has improved. Hickey now leads the team in plus/minus by a significant margin, is third among defensemen in scoring, and has claimed a spot on the team’s top penalty kill unit. Hickey also has the second-most defensive zone starts, again behind only Pelech, as he has been relied on for sound defensive play in his own end and his great ability to see the ice and make an outlet pass. On the personal side, Hickey is on pace for 21 points this season, which would be his third-most in the NHL and the best points-per-game rate of his career. Hickey has quietly been very impressive this season, even if the score sheet or the eye test doesn’t seem to point to a star player and, beyond that, has been incredibly valuable to the Islanders.

Season Stats

47 GP, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, +15 rating, 63 shots, 18:07 ATOI, 46.2 CF%

Potential Suitors

Hickey has stepped up and played great for the Islanders in 2017-18. With that well-established, New York is also a team with many injuries on the blue line. Hickey cannot play a bigger role down the stretch for any other team than he has for the Isles. Like more talked-about names such as Nick Holden or Ben Hutton, Hickey will be a depth addition for a contender if he’s traded; a luxury No. 6, 7, or 8 defender. So who needs depth on the left side? The Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning, both vying for the President’s Trophy, are both eager to add another body to their respective blue lines, but may be unwilling to pay the price for a top name. Hickey would seem to fit nice on either top contender. The Metropolitan rival New Jersey Devils could also greatly benefit from another body on the blue line, but the Isles may be hesitant to trade him to a team also in contention for an Eastern wild card spot.

The best chance for the Isles to both trade Hickey and also not hurt their own Stanley Cup odds would be to look west, where the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets would both like to add another defenseman on the left side, especially one who plays a confident game in his own zone. Either destination would be a good fit for Hickey, where he could work his way into a starting role.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Unlike the aforementioned Holden and Hutton, Hickey is not on a team that is a bona fide seller. The Islanders are still fighting for a playoff spot and, more importantly, to show impending free agent John Tavares that they have a bright future. Hickey has played such a key role for New York, that no one will blame them that if they use him as their own “rental” in order to maintain some semblance of a team that can prevent the opposition from scoring.

However, there are two scenarios in which Hickey becomes far more likely to move. The first is if, over the next nine days, the Islanders’ playoff hopes take a major hit. New York plays its next three games against likely playoff teams, including the Devils, and anything less than two points in that stretch could see their playoff hopes slip away. The second scenario is that, as has been rumored, the Isles acquire one of the top defensemen on the trade market. While that would be a sign that they are all in for this season, even if their acquisition has term on his contract, it could also mean that they hedge their bet by trading away Hickey for the best offer.

If the deafening silence surrounding Hickey means anything, the Islanders are not keen on moving him. Yet, things can always change around the deadline. A loss of playoff odds, a big trade, or even just an overwhelming offer could cause GM Garth Snow to rethink his plan. Give it a 50/50 chance that Hickey is dealt.

Trade Candidate: Max Pacioretty

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

Although he has a reputation of being a streaky scorer, Canadiens winger Max Pacioretty has been one of the more prominent goal scorers around the NHL over the past several years.  With Montreal floundering in the standings, his name has been floated out in trade talks and as a result, he is one of the top players available heading into the deadline.

Contract

Pacioretty is in the fifth season of a six-year, $27MM contract.  He is earning a salary of $5MM both this season and next and will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019.

2017-18

As is the case with a lot of Montreal’s players, this season hasn’t gone to plan for Pacioretty.  He has had his usual hot stretches but his slumps have lasted longer than normal and as a result, he has yet to hit the 20-goal mark which puts his streak of four straight years with at least 30 tallies in serious jeopardy.

However, for teams interested in acquiring him, there is some cause for optimism.  His shooting percentage of 8.1% is his lowest since becoming a full-time NHL player back in 2010-11.  He also has been in a situation where his center has primarily been a winger playing out of position which certainly hasn’t helped.  A move to a team with quality options down the middle would likely result in him getting closer to his career numbers.

Season Stats

56 GP, 16 goals, 17 assists, 33 points, -12 rating, 22 PIMS, 198 shots, 19:10 ATOI, 53.5 CF%

Potential Suitors

Nov 4, 2017; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Montreal Canadiens left wing Max Pacioretty (67) warms up during the pre-game before a game against the Winnipeg Jets at Bell MTS Centre. Mandatory Credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY SportsMost contending teams with some cap room will have interest in Pacioretty and it’s possible that non-playoff teams may kick the tires knowing that he’s signed for one more year (that might be more of an offseason inquiry, however).

In the East, Tampa Bay is likely to make a splash at some point and adding a top winger would make a potent offense that much stronger.  The two teams have already made a significant swap recently as well with the Jonathan Drouin–Mikhail Sergachev deal back in the summer.  Garth Snow is on record saying he doesn’t want to move picks and prospects for rental players but with Pacioretty being signed for one more year, there could certainly be a fit with the Islanders.  The Blue Jackets need scoring help and have more than enough room to fit him in on the salary cap this season.

Out West, Nashville has solidified their depth down the middle and can turn their focus to the wing where Pacioretty would slot in well inside their top six.  Los Angeles has shored up their back end with the Dion Phaneuf acquisition and will now turn their focus up front.  However, GM Rob Blake may be hesitant to part with the top pick and/or prospect considering they’re a team on the bubble for the postseason.  Meanwhile, San Jose is going to be on the lookout for help in their top six with Joe Thornton out and they are well-positioned both this season and beyond for the salary cap; they can add Pacioretty’s deal without any difficulty.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Does Pacioretty have more trade value now where the acquiring team can have him for two playoff runs or in the offseason when more teams have cap space to work with and the Canadiens could be open to retaining on the contract?  The answer to this question may play a role in what happens here.  GM Marc Bergevin has set a steep asking price and with other scoring wingers on the market, he may have a hard time landing it unless several of them get moved in the coming days or someone decides Pacioretty is worth paying a premium for.  As a result, the summer appears to be the likelier time for a trade to take place.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidates: Nick Holden

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The New York Rangers are selling. That much is well-established. While the main focus of the media is on big names like Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello, the reality is the only deals that are more likely than not include the team’s impending unrestricted free agents. One such player, and the only Rangers defenseman that fits that description, is Nick Holden. While Holden is not the swift, puck-moving defenseman emphasized by today’s NHL, he still holds value in many facets of the game. In fact, it’s fair to say that Holden has been routinely under-rated throughout his career (at least Patrick Roy thought so). New York knows this too, after acquiring him from Colorado for just a fourth-round pick back in the 2016 off-season only to watch him play a key role on the blue line the past two seasons. Now that they’re on the other side of the table looking to trade him away, they’ll try not to make the same mistake. However, with a “fire sale” potentially about to begin for the Rangers, Holden seems destined to be shipped out for the best offer.

Contract

Holden is in the final season of a three-year, 4.95MM contract extension signed with the Colorado Avalanche in 2014. His cap hit in 2017-18 is $1.65MM, but will count for under $500K at the deadline.

2017-18

Nothing that Holden does on the ice jumps out, though for a defenseman, that can be a good thing. In no way does Holden play a flashy, offensive possession game and his numbers this season prove that. He has just a few goals and a handful of assists on the year, below average Corsi numbers, and almost no role on the power play. Perhaps the most telling detail of his playing style is that the casual hockey fan likely has never heard of him, as his play rarely garners attention. Why then is he playing top-four minutes for the Rangers this year and playing top-pair minutes last year? Holden simply has a solid, no-nonsense game. He plays a safe, dependable style in his own end and can thus be relied on for major minutes without risking a breakdown on defense. Holden is also a physical, but clean player. He has led the Rangers in hits in back-to-back seasons, but does so while taking few detrimental penalties. When given the chance, Holden also has quite the shot and led all Blueshirt blue liners in goal-scoring in 2016-17. It’s easy to say that Holden has taken a step back this season. His offensive totals are way off his pace set last year and his plus/minus and ice time are down as a result. However, as for the hallmarks of his game, Holden is playing just as physical, is blocking more shots, and has improved greatly in turnovers, with fewer giveaways and more takeaways. Holden’s 2017-18 season would give no team any reason to think that he is a game-changer or the answer to all of their problems, but could he be a reliable asset to a contender? Absolutely.

Season Stats

51 GP, 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points, +4 rating, 12 PIM, 48 shots, 19:00 ATOI, 45.0 CF%

Potential Suitors

Holden fits the bill of a player who gets traded every deadline season –  a responsible depth defenseman who can play reliable hockey when called upon. Every season contenders seems to add a player like this simply out of convenience rather than necessity. Holden is not the type of player who will radically change the fortunes of a contender, but – especially at that cap hit – he is one worth the asset investment as he can provide reliable defense if necessary. Look for the top teams in the league to take a look at Holden in the next two weeks. The Atlantic trio of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs could all use depth on the blue line and while at times they have all been connected to bigger targets, surely one or more will decide to settle for a lesser addition. In the Metro, the Washington Capitals could really use some defensive depth and experience and the New Jersey Devils could particularly use a more safe, reliable defender given their current goal-tending crisis. In the Pacific, the Los Angeles Kings would make a nice fit, so long as their playoff position is a little firmer by the deadline.

However, the best fit for Holden seems to be the Central’s Dallas Stars. The Stars have little cap space to work with and have admitted that they won’t be major buyers, but the affordable contract of Holden paired with the responsible, hard-nosed game that head coach Ken Hitchcock appreciates makes for a nice match. Dallas is in good position to at least clinch a wild card spot this season and perhaps play spoiler in the postseason, but regardless of the status of Marc Methot, the team is known to be looking for a defenseman and Holden fits the bill for the type of guy they want and can afford to acquire.

Likelihood of a Trade

If the Rangers are serious about their fire sale, then a Holden trade is nearly a certainty. There has been no word on any extension talks, meaning Holden’s days in New York are numbered; no point in keeping him around just to fade away into free agency at the end of the season. The Rangers got Holden for a fourth-rounder in the off-season two years ago and now, two solid campaigns later and at deadline prices, they should be able to get at least that back. If the fire sale is on, they should take what they can get and move on.

Trade Candidate: Thomas Vanek

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

New coach, new expectations, but in the end, the Vancouver Canucks don’t look that much different. Vancouver finds themselves in seventh place in the Pacific Division, once again not competing for a playoff spot. The Canucks had higher expectations this year when they decided to add some veteran depth to the team in hopes it might spark their young core to play at a higher level. The team does have hope as they have a large amount of talented young prospects that aren’t too far away from joining the team over the next few years, but they must answer the question if they want to move out veteran scorer Thomas Vanek.

Contract

Dec 19, 2017; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks right wing Thomas Vanek (26) skates against the Montreal Canadiens during the third period at Rogers Arena. The Canadiens won 7 - 5. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

Vanek is currently finishing up the one-year contract he signed this offseason with Vancouver at $2MM. He will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

2017-18

At age 34, many teams believed that Vanek’s game may have passed him by and many of those teams chose to look elsewhere this offseason. He wasn’t signed until Sept. 1 by Vancouver, but he continues to prove that he can score in this league. He currently has 16 goals in 56 games and has impressed management to the point that they are considering re-signing him to an extension.

While Vanek has been fortunate enough to play on a line with rookie sensation Brock Boeser, the veteran has shown he can still score clutch goals and set up his teammates as well. He is quite versatile and is capable of playing anywhere in the lineup if needed. His lack of speed, however, doesn’t help him.

Season Stats

55 GP, 15 goals, 22 assists, 37 points, -15 rating, 24 PIM, 102 shots, 13:59 ATOI, 44.7 CF%

Potential Suitors

Vanek could have a number of suitors, because of the fact that he won’t be very costly. The Detroit Red Wings, who traded away Vanek at the trade deadline a year ago, only received an average prospect and a third-round pick from the Florida Panthers. So, many teams that are short on salary cap space and picks may find Vanek to be an interesting option, ranging from the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Nashville Predators.

One possibility could be the Boston Bruins, who are desperate for depth on the wings. Vanek might be a good fit to join the Bruins second or even third line and provide even more offense during a playoff run. His penalty killing skills might also be helpful for Boston as well.

Likelihood Of A Trade

It’s more of a 50-50 proposition. The team could easily find a take for Vanek, but will the Canucks get true value for him? Perhaps if the team can get a second-rounder for Vanek, then it might be worth it, but at the same time, there are rumors that Daniel Sedin and his brother Henrik Sedin are considering returning for another year next season. The question then is, should they keep Vanek around for another year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidate: David Perron

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

Ever since the Vegas Golden Knights were contructed, the plan had always been to build through the draft, but add a few veteran players they could move at the trade deadline. While James Neal was an obvious choice when the team selected him from Nashville Predators, no one was as confident that veteran winger David Perron would be as successful. Yet one season in, Perron is having a one of his best seasons of his career. The question now is does the team still want to trade him?

Contract

Jan 19, 2018; Sunrise, FL, USA; Vegas Golden Knights left wing James Neal (18) reacts after a goal by left wing David Perron (not pictured) against the Florida Panthers in the first period at BB&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Perron is in the final season of a two-year, $7.5MM contract—$3.75MM cap hit, $3.75MM salary that he signed with the St. Louis Blues. He will be a UFA in July, and a modified no-trade clause in which he can submit three teams he doesn’t want to be traded to.

2017-18

Perron has been fantastic on the Golden Knights’ second line along with Neal and Erik Haula this season. Acquired via the expansion draft from St. Louis, the original plan had been to move him at the trade deadline, but instead, he’s made himself a key top-six player on a team that has the best record in the Western Conference. While he has just 13 goals this year, that’s still on target for his best goal-scoring season since 2013-14 when he potted 28 goals when he was with the Edmonton Oilers.

However, what makes his game stand out more than anything is his ability to move the puck. His 36 assists puts him already at 49 points with still almost a third of a season left. That already gives him more points than he’s had since that 2013-14 season in Edmonton. Add that to his clutch play in key moments, which includes four game-winning goals and he’s become too good to move.

Season Stats

48 GP, 13 goals, 36 assists, 49 points, +7 rating, 36 PIM, 89 shots, 17:42 ATOI, 48.9 CF%

Potential Suitors

At this point, almost any team might want to get a hold of Perron as a player rental for the upcoming playoffs. Even at $3.75MM, that’s a pretty good deal for a 29-year-old player having a great season. However, there is little chatter considering where the Golden Knights stand at present. General manager George McPhee has been non-committal to whether they intend to be buyers or sellers, but most believe they won’t be sellers.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Extremely unlikely. While you can never say never, Perron is a fixture for a team that looks ready to make a deep playoff run in their first-ever season, which no one predicted. With the team’s chemistry operating at peak efficiency, moving one of their key pieces could wreck their success. Once considered a trade deadline candidate, it looks like Vegas will hold onto him as their own player rental. While there has been little early indication that Vegas intends to extend Perron’s contract, that’s still a possibility as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidate: Michael Grabner

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The New York Rangers are selling. In not so many words, Glen Sather and Jeff Gorton reached out to their fans and told them that they were going to blow up the core of the team, selling off familiar faces and beloved teammates. Not only might that include franchise leaders like Ryan McDonagh, but expiring assets like Rick Nash and Michael Grabner. While the former may be getting more headlines, Grabner is not one to be overlooked.

Michael GrabnerContract

Grabner is in the final season of a two-year, $3.3MM contract—$1.65MM cap hit, $1.65MM salary. He will be a UFA in July, and holds zero trade protection.

2017-18

In September of 2015, Grabner was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for five minor league players, who have combined for a total of 11 NHL games since. Several of them are no longer playing hockey in North America. It was a dump of his $5MM salary, after three consecutive injury-filled seasons for the New York Islanders. For Toronto, nothing went right for Grabner as he scored just nine goals and 18 points in 80 games.

But then, the Rangers came calling and everything changed. Suddenly, Grabner exploded for 27 goals last season, all of them at either even-strength or short-handed. His speed and ability to counter-punch with devastating efficiency was a big part of the Rangers offense. This year has been much of the same.

Amazingly, despite getting essentially zero powerplay time all season Grabner already has 21 goals. That total easily leads the Rangers, and puts him among the elite players in the game in terms of goal production given his limited minutes. His 20 even-strength markers tie him for sixth in the league behind names like Nikita Kucherov, Alex Ovechkin, Auston Matthews, William Karlsson and Sean Couturier. He’s on pace for the second 30-goal season of his career, but only has five assists all year.

Season Stats

53 GP, 21 goals, 5 assists, 26 points, -8 rating, 12 PIM, 116 shots, 14:40 ATOI, 44.1 CF%

Potential Suitors

There are basically no teams in the league who have their eye on the playoffs and couldn’t use a player like Grabner. His ability to penalty kill and versatility to play with scoring or checking units means he can fit in anywhere. He comes with an extremely reasonable cap hit at $1.65MM and got some good playoff experience last season with the Rangers (where he scored four goals in 12 games, again tying for the team lead).

The question will be who wants to pay the most for a player who isn’t as dynamic offensively as other rental wingers like Nash, or Evander Kane. Though he can certainly put the puck in the net, creating offense for his linemates has never been Grabner’s game.

One interesting destination could be Los Angeles, who have been desperate for scoring since Jeff Carter’s injury and could use another injection of speed into the lineup. Another is Tampa Bay, who have room for another winger and could really use some help on the penalty kill. The Lightning lost arguably their best defensive forward in Ondrej Palat for a few more weeks, and could easily slide Grabner into their salary structure.

Likelihood Of A Trade

A trade is all but certain for Grabner, as one of the expiring assets the Rangers will use to kick their rebuild into gear. If someone is going to offer a first-round pick, as some have suggested, he’d likely be on his way out in the next few days. Otherwise, the Rangers might be wise to hold onto him until some of the other shoes have dropped and teams feel like their rivals are getting the better of them.

The eventual return may be far less, depending on where the market sets the price for rentals, but it’s clear that Grabner will have value around the league. If there is a team who feels that he can make a big difference on their team in those key situations, there just could be a small bidding war for his services.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidates: Radim Vrbata

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The last time that the Florida Panthers went out and added a veteran Czech forward, it worked out perfectly. Jaromir Jagr was an All-Star and the Panthers were Atlantic Division champions. GM Dale Tallon may have been hoping that lightning would strike twice when he added Jagr’s countryman, Radim Vrbata, this off-season. It didn’t. In fact, Vrabta’s tenure in Florida has been an unmitigated disaster, as the 36-year-old is on pace to have the worst offensive season of his long, successful NHL career.

Nevertheless, Vrbata has shown time and time again to be a lethal weapon when he finds the right line chemistry and, despite what they say, even on teams other than the Coyotes. Vrbata’s decline in production could be a sign of his age, but some teams may gamble on it instead being a product of his surroundings and will look to acquire the experienced scorer at a bargain price. The Panthers are not as far out of a the playoff picture as some might think – six points back with two games in hand as of this writing – but that won’t stop them from entertaining offers on several players, especially Vrbata. The veteran forward hasn’t worked out in Florida and wouldn’t be much of a loss for the Cats, so a trade could wind up as a win-win for both sides.

Contract

Vrbata signed a one-year deal with Florida this summer that carries a $2.5MM base salary, his cap hit for the year. Vrbata can earn an additional $1.25MM in performance bonuses and, interestingly enough, a trade to a contender could trigger one of them; Vrbata earns $250K if his team makes the playoffs this season. He also earns $250K each for 10 goals, 15 goals, 20 goals, and 45 points. With just 5 goals and 13 points thus far, he realistically has a shot at only $500K in bonuses for 10 goals and a playoff berth. This overage would count against next season’s cap.

2017-18

The myth surrounding Vrbata has always been that he doesn’t perform outside of Arizona. While past campaigns in Colorado, Chicago, and Vancouver have indicated otherwise, this season in Florida has only added fuel to that fire. Vrbata has skated in 35 games for the Panthers this season, missing five games due to injury, five to illness, and another six (and counting) as a healthy scratch. Even when he’s been on the ice, Vrbata has been invisible. He’s outside the top ten in goals, assists, and points among Panthers and his impressive power play production has dried up, reduced to just four points on the year. On top of that, Vrbata has the third-worst plus/minus on the team and, as he has his whole career, plays with little physical or defensive ability. As a result of his poor play, the 16-year NHL veteran is seeing the least ice time of his career. The Vrbata experiment in Sunrise did not work out and will soon be over, either via trade or the end of the season.

Season Stats

35 GP: 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points, -8 rating, 14 PIM, 78 shots, 13:05 ATOI, 44.3 CF%

Potential Suitors

So who would want to trade for such an uninspiring asset? Unfortunately for Vrbata, the Coyotes aren’t an option as they are as far from a deadline seller as any team could be. However, Vrbata has found success elsewhere before in his career and he can do so again. Especially at this point in his career, Vrbata is the perfect deadline depth acquisition: a hired gun who doesn’t need to be relied upon to be a team’s best player. With the right fit, Vrbata can score in bunches down the stretch and in the postseason. Several playoff-bound teams are known to be looking for a scoring winger, including the Washington Capitals, St. Louis Blues, and San Jose Sharks. All three teams have the infrastructure where Vrbata could settle in to a middle-six role depending on which personnel he fits best with. Top contenders like the Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning – if the Bolts are willing to bring Vrbata back for a second go-round after his disappointing prior stint – could also use the luxury of bringing in a veteran winger, but could also survive if he doesn’t work out and ends up a frequent scratch.

However, where Vrbata is likely the best fit is not with a bona fide playoff team, but instead a fringe team looking to make a minor addition in hopes of increasing their odds of seeing the postseason. The Calgary Flames, who won’t trade away any high draft picks, might be happy to take a look at Vrbata if the price is a late pick or low-end prospect. The Colorado Avalanche, the team that drafted Vrbata, and New Jersey Devils have both stated that they won’t derail their long-term plans by chasing expensive rentals, but could pursue the affordable Vrbata, while the Anaheim Ducks and Carolina Hurricanes could also be options if they are closer to a playoff berth come deadline day.

Likelihood of a Trade

Predicting whether Vrbata’s 2017-18 performance will outweigh his career production in the eyes of this year’s buyers is impossible. There is a clear need for a veteran winger with a scoring touch on many teams, including some not even mentioned, but whether they target Vrbata over any number of other options (even including Panthers teammate Colton Sceviour) remains to be seen. If anyone does come calling though, it would be a surprise to see Florida turn down the best offer. The Panthers will continue to push for a playoff spot of their own, but Vrbata won’t play a real part in that plan whether he is traded or not. The signing was a failure, but Florida can still turn it into a positive if they are able to get something back in return for trading Vrbata.

Trade Candidate: Rick Nash

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

News broke this morning that the New York Rangers had finally asked Rick Nash for his 18-team no-trade list, essentially confirmed what has been suspected for some time. The team plans on trading Nash before the deadline, trying to recoup as much value as possible out of the last few months of his current contract.

Contract

Nash is in the final season of an eight-year, $62.4MM contract—$7.8MM cap hit, $8.2MM salary. He will be a UFA in July, and holds an 18-team no-trade list.

Alain Vigneault, Rick Nash2017-18

For years, Nash was one of the elite goal scoring talents in the NHL. Armed with excellent speed, a large frame and good hands, the power forward topped 40 goals in three different seasons, and 30 in five others. Since his 42-goal 2014-15 season things have started to trend downwards, but there is still effective hockey left in the 33-year old.

This year, Nash has scored 15 goals through 52 games and has seen his ice time increased back to more than 17 minutes a night. His value as a defensively responsible forward is still quite high, and he still spends nearly two minutes penalty killing every night.

Season Stats

52 GP, 15 goals, 10 assists, 25 points, -5 rating, 20 PIM, 162 shots, 17:04 ATOI, 48.7 CF%

Potential Suitors

Even with Nash’s large cap hit, the market could include several teams around the league. If the Rangers are willing to retain salary (which they are), several teams in the Western Conference could see him as one of the top additions, especially because of his two-way ability.

Dan Rosen of NHL.com lists the Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, San Jose Sharks and St. Louis Blues as possible destinations, with others noting his familiarity with people like Ken Hitchcock and Joe Thornton. All four teams are battling for position in the West, and could end up driving the price higher and higher for top rentals.

Another interesting spot would be a return to Columbus, though it would take a trade between division rivals to pull it off. The Blue Jackets are looking for some more depth at forward—though specifically center if they had the choice—and would likely welcome the old face of their franchise back for one last run. The two sides did not leave on good terms when Nash was dealt in 2012, but that was some time ago and included a different front office regime.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Nash confirmed he had handed in his list today, and seemed upset at the thought he wouldn’t be a Ranger at the end of the season. Speaking to media including Sean Shapiro of The Athletic, he explained how hard it will be to tell his son that he isn’t with the team anymore.

It’s hard to imagine that the team won’t trade him now, but there is definitely the possibility that he returns to New York in the offseason. Knowing that, it would be foolish of the Rangers to not cash in on whatever return they can get, unless they truly believe they can compete this season in the playoffs. Even still, the return for Nash—which some are speculating could be as high as a first-round pick—is more valuable to the franchise than his contributions this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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