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Expansion Draft Issues: Several Teams Have Moves To Make Before July 17

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The trade deadline may have come and gone, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be any more trades over the courses of the remainder of the league year. The NHL Expansion Draft is right around the corner, with protection lists due on July 17, ahead of the draft on July 21. By that time, all 30 participating teams must be able to submit a protection list that complies with the exposure requirements of the draft. As a reminder, teams may protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie or eight skaters and a goalie. However, they must also expose two forwards and one defenseman signed beyond this season and who have played in 27 NHL games this season or 54 games over the past two seasons, as well as a goaltender under team control beyond this season.

For many teams, this is easier said than done though. Long-term forwards and defensemen with considerable games played who are also deemed expendable are not all that common. With the trade deadline completed, teams are stuck with the group that they have unless they decide to make a trade in the time between their regular season end or postseason elimination and the week of the draft. Some can solve their problems internally, while others may be more hard pressed. Based on their most likely protection scheme, here are the teams with work to do:

Calgary Flames

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Solutions: The Flames may be having a difficult season, but they have a talented top-six who are all signed long-term. Except, that’s where the term forwards end. If Calgary cannot convince Milan Lucic to waive his No-Movement Clause, the team will be missing both of their required forwards for exposure by protecting Looch and the top-six. Even if Lucic does waive, the team will need to make another forward available to Seattle. RFA Dillon Dube meets the games played criteria, but the team is likely to protect the young forward or, if not, will not do anything to make him more attractive to the Kraken. That leaves fellow RFA Dominik Simon and impending UFA’s Derek Ryan, Josh Leivo, and Joakim Nordstrom, as well as Brett Ritchie with six more games played, as other names who could earn extensions due to otherwise meeting the exposure criteria.

Likelihood of a Trade: Medium. With so many affordable, bottom-six role players that the team could hand new one-year deals, the Flames have options. However, if Lucic does not waive and the team feels pressured to re-sign two of those players, they may look for outside help rather than bring back too much of a forward corps that has underachieved this year.

Colorado Avalanche

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Solutions: As one of the top scoring team’s in the NHL, the Avalanche will want to keep as much of their forward corps as they can and with the likes of Gabriel Landeskog and Brandon Saad heading to free agency and not in need of protection, the team can do just that. However, if Colorado does protect their top nine scoring forwards minus Landeskog and Saad, that leaves them with, at best, one forward to expose and zero if they choose to protect both Valeri Nichushkin and J.T. Compher. If the Avs do choose to protect the duo, that should leave RFA Tyson Jost unprotected, who they could extend in order to meet the exposure requirement. However, Jost has arbitration rights and may not rush into a new deal. Other candidates to re-sign would be UFA’s Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Carl Soderberg, or Matt Calvert. Fortunately, the Avalanche have an even easier internal fix and that is simply playing Logan O’Connor five more times before the end of the season.

Likelihood of a Trade: Low. Between playing O’Connor and exposing one of Nichushkin or Compher, Colorado may not have to make any move at all. If they do, they have options. Who wouldn’t want to re-sign in Colorado right now, even if its only for the purpose of being expansion draft fodder.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Solutions: It’s easy to guess six forwards that the Blue Jackets will protect, but the seventh is a bit trickier. Do they expose star Gustav Nyquist, who has missed the whole season due to injury and is on a substantial contract and on the wrong side of 30? Or do they expose Eric Robinson, who has been a hard-working depth presence this season but has limited upside? Well, if they choose to protect either one, it only leave the other as meeting exposure criteria. Only if both are exposed is Columbus good to go and that scenario seems unlikely. However, the only forward currently meeting the requirements other than term is RFA Kevin Stenlund, though UFA Mikhail Grigorenko requires only two more games played (and a new contract).

Likelihood of a Trade: High. The Blue Jackets surely want to bring Stenlund back, but he has arbitration rights and may not be keen to sign quickly just to help with expansion requirements. If a Stenlund deal can’t be reached sooner rather than later, Columbus may not have a choice but to bring someone in from the outside. A Grigorenko extension seems unlikely, as does exposing both Nyquist and Robinson.

Dallas Stars

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Solutions: The Stars’ protection scheme at forward is fairly obvious, as they have seven core forwards who stand out above the rest. However, those seven are also the only regular forwards with term on their contracts. Of all other expansion-draft eligible forwards for Dallas, only Joel L’Esperance has additional time on his current deal and he cannot reach the games played requirement. As a result, the Stars must find two forwards to expose, whereas most of these other problematic teams can at least scrounge up one forward. Among the options to re-sign are veteran UFA’s Blake Comeau and Andrew Cogliano or younger UFA’s Tanner Kero and Justin Dowling. However, it may be easier to re-up an RFA like Jason Dickinson or, with three more games, Nicholas Caamano. 

Likelihood of a Trade: Medium. The Stars have a number of options, many of whom will likely re-sign at some point anyhow or else Dallas will have to rebuild their bottom-six from scratch. However, with two slots to fill there is always a chance that acquiring a player could be easier than negotiating a pair of early extensions.

New Jersey Devils

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Options: A rebuilding Devils team has a number of regular forwards who are ineligible for the draft and many others, protected or not, who are restricted free agents. What they lack is many term forwards, especially of the the expendable variety. While New Jersey could go in a few different direction with their protected list, the reality is simply that they have only five draft-eligible forwards who are signed beyond this season and at least four of those are locks to be protected. The x-factor is Andreas Johnsson. The first-year Devil has fallen well short of expectations and it would not be a surprise to see him exposed, leaving the team with just one spot to fill to meet the quota. However, if they are determined to give Johnsson a second chance and not lose him for nothing, then that becomes two slots that must be filled. The other problem in New Jersey is that the team doesn’t want to give Seattle any added incentive to steal some of their promising young players. Michael McLeod, Janne Kuokkanen, Yegor Sharangovich, and Nathan Bastian would all meet the exposure criteria if extended, but it’s safe to assume that the Devils will protect two or three of that group and may not be too excited to lose any of the others. Nick Merkley, who requires seven more games played and a new deal, could be seen as more expendable and may be okay with accepting a quick extension, even if it just for expansion purposes.

Likelihood of a Trade: High. With the possibility that New Jersey could protect Johnsson and, in any scenario, will want to steer the Kraken away from their young forwards if at all possible, the Devils seem like a prime candidate to bring in some outside help with meeting exposure criteria.

San Jose Sharks

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Options: Much like the Stars, the Sharks are not an elite team right now, but possess a solid group of top-six forwards who will all be protected. Also like Dallas though, the team has complete lack of long-term commitment to any forward outside of that group. The only other eligible forward signed beyond this season is Jayden Halbgewachs, who has not played a single NHL game, nevertheless enough to meet the requirement. There is not a great list of internal options to re-sign either. Of the players who would meet exposure criteria with an extension, Patrick Marleau is likely to retire, Marcus Sorensen seems to need a fresh start in free agency, and one of Rudolfs Balcers and Dylan Gambrell is likely to be the seventh forward protected. That really leaves UFA Matt Nieto as the lynchpin. If the Sharks can re-up Nieto and whoever they don’t protect between Balcers and Gambrell, they are good to go. If Nieto isn’t keen to re-sign and if Balcers or Gambrell wish to pursue arbitration, the Sharks will be stuck without any forwards to expose.

Likelihood of a Trade: High. The Sharks are in as tough a position as any team on this list. If left exposed, Washington native Gambrell seems like a very likely pick by Seattle, but San Jose needs to meet the exposure quota all the same. That could involve bringing in one if not two forwards before the draft. There simply aren’t many other options on the roster.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Problem Area: Forward OR Defense (Scheme-Dependent)

Internal Options: It should come as no surprise that a team build entirely on a small, expensive core group and veterans on affordable, one-year deals is not well-prepared for the expansion draft. Of the ten Toronto skaters who currently meet the exposure criteria, four are forwards that will be protected in any scenario and three are defensemen that will be protected in any scenario. This leaves Alex Kerfoot at forward and Justin Holl on defense(with Pierre Engvall as the odd man out will likely be exposed regardless); only one can be protected and the other is the most likely Leaf to be selected. If the Maple Leafs value Holl more than Kerfoot, they will go with eight skaters in their protection list. In this scenario, they will not have any defensemen who meet the exposure criteria. Fortunately, any of RFA Travis Dermott or UFA’s Zach Bogosian or Ben Hutton could re-sign and fill that role. Alternatively, if the team values Kerfoot more than Holl, they will go with the standard 7-3 protection scheme. This would allow them to protect Kerfoot as well as extend and protect others like Zach Hyman, Joe Thornton, or Jason Spezza. Those three would all meet exposure requirements as well with a new deal, but Toronto will not offer them up to Seattle. Wayne Simmonds, Riley Nash, or Alex Galchenyuk could be more likely though. Unfortunately, these are all unrestricted free agents and not as easy to re-sign before the off-season as a restricted free agent. The Leafs could find themselves in a bind as a result.

Likelihood of a Trade: Low. There is still so much to be determined about the Leafs’ approach to the draft and they have options either way and player who would likely be eager to re-sign. It’s not a straightforward situation by any means, but they should be able to figure it out without taking the risk of adding salary that they can’t spare by making a trade.

Winnipeg Jets

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Options: The Jets are known for their depth at forward and eight of their top-nine meet the exposure criteria as a result, with RFA Andrew Copp not fitting the bill but almost certain to be protected anyway. The decision for the seventh and final protection slot is likely between the recently-extended Adam Lowry and upstart Mason Appleton. Whoever isn’t protected fills one of the two exposure roles. However, no one else is currently eligible. Extension candidates include UFA’s Mathieu Perreault, Trevor Lewis, and Nate Thompson, but Winnipeg may not necessarily want to commit further to any of those three. The solution: Jansen Harkins is signed through next season and requires just four more games to meet exposure level.

Likelihood of Trade: Low. Just play Harkins and move on. The list of teams in trouble is already long enough.

 

Columbus’ Gustav Nyquist Will Not Play This Season

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When the Columbus Blue Jackets watched an exodus of talent walk out the door in the 2019 off-season, the only top free agent that they were able to bring in to help make up for the losses was Gustav Nyquist. Nyquist signed a four-year, $22MM contract that placed him among the most well-compensated UFA’s that summer. A four-time 20-goal scorer coming off a career-high 60-point season, Nyquist was expected to step into the Columbus lineup and bring that same level of production. For the most part he did just that last season, meeting the high expectations. The long-time Detroit Red Wing showed no issues adjusting to his new team, recording 15 goals and 42 points in a shortened 70-game season, good enough for second on the team in scoring. However, the veteran had also quietly been dealing with a nagging injury in his left shoulder that turned out to be a torn labrum. He underwent surgery in early November and was given a 5-to-6 month recovery timeline. The Jackets realized that they would be missing the two-way, top-six forward for much of the season, but expected him back for the stretch run and hoped he would be joining a playoff push as well.

Well, five months have already passed with the six-month mark coming up shortly and there has been little word on Nyquist. That is, until today. Blue Jackets beat writer Jeff Svoboda relays word from head coach John Tortorella that Nyquist will not return to the Columbus lineup this season. Tortorella did not expand on this statement, leaving it ambiguous as to whether there has been a setback in his recovery that is truly preventing his return or whether the club has decided that there is no use bringing him back given their status this season. As for the latter, the Blue Jackets were toying with playoff contention for a short period of time, but have cooled off immensely in recent weeks. In fact, their 2-7-1 record in their past ten games is the second-worst mark in the league in that span. These struggles, pushing Columbus to seventh in the Central Division and ten points back of a playoff spot, coupled with the deadline departures of key contributors Nick Foligno and David Savard, have made a postseason push close to impossible and likely made it an easier decision for the team to shut Nyquist down.

The Blue Jackets certainly could have used Nyquist this season though. The play-making winger logged major minutes for Columbus last season and contributed to both special teams units. Due in no small part to Nyquist’s absence, the team has failed to improve in scoring this season, both even strength and on the power play, and have taken a step back on the penalty kill. And while team defense may seem to rely on the blue line and goaltending more than the forwards, missing Nyquist’s stable two-way presence for 18+ minutes per night has contributed to some degree in the Blue Jacket’s massive slide from the league’s third-best goal against average last season to 26th this year.

With all that said, Nyquist’s inability to return this season does raise some questions about his security this off-season. If the team is simply being cautious by not activating him this season, that would seem to imply that they have his future interests in mind and see him continuing to play a part with their club. However, if the soon-to-be 32-year-old has instead been recovering slowly and is still physically unable to return, that is a whole other issue. Facing financial pressure and facing an impending cap crunch, with Patrik Laine in need of a new deal this summer and Seth Jones and Zach Werenski in the same boat the next summer, a $5.5MM cap hit for an aging player who has not seen action in a year may not be appealing to the Blue Jackets. If they are unsure that Nyquist can return to being a dependable top-six forward in the final two years of his contract, they could opt to expose him in the Expansion Draft or trade him away, letting another team take that chance. Even if just for peace of mind heading into the off-season, it would have been nice for Columbus to see Nyquist return before the end of the season. Instead, they will have to prepare for an important off-season with an expensive question mark on the roster.

Metropolitan Notes: Konecny, Capitals, Blue Jackets

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After two 24-goal seasons in Philadelphia, there were many that were concerned that Philadelphia Flyers forward Travis Konecny was at a crossroads in 2019-20 where his career would either take that next step or fall back. Konecny took that next step, scoring 24 goals for a third straight year, but also seeing a points increase of 12 in a pandemic-shortened season. Much of those offensive statistics can be credited to his improved defense, according to The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor (subscription required).

With a new coach coming in last year in Alain Vigneault, Konecny put more of his offseason focus into developing his two-way game, which impressed the new coach, giving him more on-ice access during games, including playing late in games, something that he rarely saw under former head coach Dave Hakstol and then interim coach Scott Gordon. Vigneault’s confidence in Konecny led to an increase of minutes where he saw a 1:32 ATOI of more ice time.

While his regular season was a success, his playoffs was far from it with zero goals and seven assists in 16 games, including a big drop-off in his defensive ratings. The key to his future as a potential Flyers’ star is whether he can prove his two-way game is for real.

Gustav Nyquist Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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The Columbus Blue Jackets will be without one of their consistent offensive pieces for the first part of the 2020-21 season. Gustav Nyquist has undergone surgery to repair a labral tear in his left should and has been given a recovery timeline of five to six months. GM Jarmo Kekalainen explained why the surgery was required at this point:

This was a chronic issue that Gus has been dealing with for a number of seasons. He has been able to perform at a high level, but a cyst in the area developed over time that has inhibited his ability to continue to do so. As a result, surgery was the best course of action and we look forward to having him back at full strength this season.

Nyquist, 31, signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jackets in the 2019 offseason and ended up scoring 42 points in 70 games this season. That put him behind only Pierre-Luc Dubois for the team lead, and continued what has been an incredibly consistent pattern throughout his career. Nyquist has played in at least 57 games in each of the last seven seasons, recording at least 40 points in each of them.

Given he’ll be out until at least April, the Blue Jackets will have to find a way to replace some of that offensive. As Aaron Portzline of The Athletic points out on Twitter, there are still several top-six options available on the free agent market, including Mike Hoffman, Erik Haula, Andreas Athanasiou, and Mikael Granlund. Perhaps this injury will push Kekalainen and the Columbus front office toward a deal with one of those names, or perhaps it will only open an opportunity for one of the team’s young players to receive more minutes.

Columbus does have plenty of cap space remaining, though both Dubois and Vladislav Gavrikov remain unsigned.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Gustav Nyquist Signs With Columbus Blue Jackets

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The Columbus Blue Jackets may have lost Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene, but they’ve added one of the other top free agent forwards. Gustav Nyquist has signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jackets that will carry a $5.5MM average annual value according to Bob McKenzie of TSN.

The 29-year-old winger has been a solid producer over the years as he has two straight 20-goal seasons, although his best two years were much earlier in his career when he tallied 55 goals over two seasons with Detroit between 2013 and 2015. Knowing they weren’t likely going to bring the veteran back, the Red Wings traded him to San Jose for a 2019 second-round pick and Nyquist proved to be instrumental in assisting the Sharks throughout the rest of the regular season and the playoffs. In 19 regular season, he scored six goals and 11 points and while he scored just one goal in 20 playoff games, he did set up a number of his teammates as he wracked up 10 assists.

In Columbus, Nyquist should fill a key role in the team’s top-six that not just lost Duchene and Panarin, but also is expected to part ways with Ryan Dzingel, who many believed would stay with the Blue Jackets. His presence should fill that gap and also give Columbus a solid second-line winger, who could eventually slide back into a third-line role as he gets older and a number of the team’s young prospects are ready to step into greater roles.

Vancouver “Still In The Mix” For Gustav Nyquist

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The Vancouver Canucks have had quite the interesting offseason so far, highlighted by the retirement of Roberto Luongo placing more than $3MM of cap recapture penalties on their books. To combat that the team placed will buy out Ryan Spooner to open up some more cap space for potential free agent signings and new contracts for their own RFAs. While Vancouver has been routinely linked to free agent defenseman Tyler Myers, Rick Dhaliwal of Sportsnet reports that the team is currently “still in the mix” for Gustav Nyquist as well.

Nyquist, 29, was acquired by the San Jose Sharks at the deadline and fit in quite well with them, scoring 22 points in 39 games including a solid postseason. Even with the good fit he may end up being too pricey for the team to retain after they made Erik Karlsson the highest-paid defenseman in the league and need to get Timo Meier under a new deal. That opens him up for a bidding war on the open market as one of the top second-tier free agent forwards, something Vancouver is obviously interested in.

Coming off a four-year $19MM deal signed with the Detroit Red Wings in 2015, Nyquist is undoubtedly looking for a raise on the $4.75MM cap hit he carried last season. After recording a career-high 60 points his market won’t be small, and there has been plenty of speculation on where that might lead him. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet suggested recently that the Columbus Blue Jackets may be a fit, which would make sense given Aaron Portzline of The Athletic’s reporting (subscription required) that they have been focused on free agent forwards.

If Vancouver does get involved with Nyquist, they’re going to have to make sure they don’t overextend themselves while Brock Boeser is still without a contract. The 22-year old forward should be getting a healthy raise on whatever deal he signs, and is much more important to the team’s future than a free agent forward who will be 30 before the season begins.

Joonas Donskoi Drawing Interest

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The San Jose Sharks won’t be able to afford new contracts for all of their pending free agents, so names like Joonas Donskoi are going to have to scour the market for a new opportunity. That isn’t going to be very difficult, as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) reports that nearly have the league has already “kicked the tires” on Donskoi, and lists the Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche and Buffalo Sabres as teams with real interest.

The 27-year old winger has scored 14 goals in each of the last two seasons and reached a new career-high with 37 points in the 2018-19 campaign. That was despite averaging just over 13 minutes a night, making him quite an efficient scorer in the lower half of the Sharks’ lineup. It comes as no surprise then that teams are interested in bringing him aboard, hoping they can coax even more production out.

It is important to note that unlike many depth wingers, Donskoi has virtually no experience on the penalty kill and thus would need to be able to contribute enough offensively to warrant whatever deal he eventually earns. Though he’s not useless defensively and isn’t completely against physical play, those are certainly not his calling cards.

Edmonton, as LeBrun points out, is checking the market on basically every free agent winger including Donskoi’s teammate Gustav Nyquist, who is also drawing interest but hasn’t ruled out a return to San Jose. The Oilers are in desperate need of help this season to try and avoid missing the playoffs again, and will look to add some skill to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the open market.

Free Agent Notes: Salary Cap, Marner, Gusev, Duchene, Dillon

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With rumors of the 2019-20 salary cap possibly being lower than the $83MM that teams initially expected, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that an NHLPA spokesperson told him that there should be an announcement on the salary cap this evening.

With talks that the salary cap could be as low as $81.5MM, LeBrun writes that the NHLPA is taking their time to weigh that number. That number is expected to have a significant effect on teams, especially on those that are tight to the cap as that leaves them even less room to work with and could force teams to dump salaries even more than ever.

  • LeBrun also tweets that the agent for Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner, Darren Ferris, is expecting to hear from other teams on Wednesday, the day the RFA speaking period begins. With plenty of talks of high demands and a suggested willingness to sign an offer sheet, Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas has his hands full. Dubas and Ferris did not meet this week in Vancouver and Ferris is expected to leave the draft for home, although there is plenty of time for both Dubas and Ferris to meet next week.
  • While many fans of the Vegas Golden Knights have been looking forward to seeing KHL star forward Nikita Gusev play this season, TSN’s Darren Dreger suggests that the restricted free-agent may not end up getting the chance. With plenty of cap concerns, Vegas may not have enough money to sign the 26-year-old winger, and the Golden Knights may opt to trade him to relieve some of those cap issues. Dreger adds that multiple teams have inquired about Gusev, who currently would be penciled in on their third line and could be expendable for the right price. Gusev signed a one-year deal, $925K in April of this year, but he didn’t appear in a game for the Golden Knights. He won the KHL MVP award in 2018 and has scored 63 goals in the last three season for SKA St. Petersburg.
  • The Athletic’s Craig Custance reports that he has heard there won’t be any deal between the Columbus Blue Jackets and unrestricted free agent center Matt Duchene before the speaking period opens on Sunday. While that isn’t a major surprise, of all the Blue Jackets’ big-named free agents, Duchene was their best hope to re-signing. However, especially after the recent P.K. Subban deal, it is believed that Nashville has become the front-runner for Duchene’s services.
  • Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports that the San Jose Sharks would be open to moving defenseman Brendan Dillon for the right price. Dillon, who is currently slated to play on the top defensive pairing next to Brent Burns is making $3.27MM, but with significant cap issues coming this offseason, the team could use the extra cap room to try and make sure it can sign all of its top free agents, including restricted free agent Timo Meier, as well as unrestricted free agents Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Joonas Donskoi and Gustav Nyquist, although the latter two are less likely to return.

Erik Karlsson Re-Signs With San Jose Sharks

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UPDATE: The Sharks have now officially announced the Karlsson extension and it is worth even more than previously believed. Karlsson is set to make $11.5MM on average over an eight-year term for a total of $92MM, according to CapFriendly. That includes $53MM in signing bonuses, largely front loaded in the early years for potential lockout protection, as well as in the final two years to dissuade a buyout. The contract also includes a full No-Movement Clause. There is little doubt remaining that San Jose is all in on Karlsson given these terms, which make Karlsson the highest paid defenseman in NHL history and behind only Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews overall. The Sharks simply have to hope that he can get back to full health and remain that way as long as possible, while those teams that missed out on a chance to court him this summer have to hope that the somewhat underwhelming replacement options don’t drastically increase their asking price.

 

It’s been an ongoing narrative early this off-season that the San Jose Sharks were willing to do whatever it takes to re-sign Erik Karlsson, after the all-world defenseman played well – when healthy – in his first season with the team. Karlsson is considered not just the top defenseman on the free agent market, but arguably the biggest name overall, and that’s taking into account his injury concerns. Few defensemen in the NHL can do what a healthy Karlsson can offensively and the 29-year-old was set to cash in on the open market. Yet, it seems that GM Doug Wilson and the Sharks have convinced Karlsson that he doesn’t need to test the waters to find a considerable contract and a winning team. TSN insider Bob McKenzie reports that “all signs are pointing” to Karlsson returning to San Jose and colleague Pierre LeBrun follows it up by stating that “a deal is indeed done.”

McKenzie is hardly the first to report that extension talks were getting close between the two sides, but when the respected hockey mind makes a pronouncement like this, it generally carries significant weight. LeBrun thus checked in himself and found previous reports that the two sides were talking about a contract in the neighborhood of Drew Doughty’s eight-year, $88MM contract to be true. LeBrun believes that is will be an eight-year deal worth more than Doughty’s $11MM AAV. This would make Karlsson’s cap hit the third-largest in NHL history.

Unless his negotiating rights were to be traded prior to July 1st, the Sharks were always going to be the only team that could offer Karlsson that valuable eight year. However, it is likely their willingness to move into the double-digit AAV realm that pushed negotiations closer to a resolution. Especially in a season in which Karlsson missed 29 games due to injury, there was plenty of speculation that his value would take a hit on the free agent market, resulting in lesser term or at least a lower dollar value over a long-term deal. Instead, the Sharks seemingly plan to keep Karlsson in town by offering him the same contract he likely would have landed prior to this past season and hope that recent groin surgery solves the nagging soft tissue damage that cost the superstar blue liner so much time this season.

Assuming this extension becomes official shortly, it will have wide-ranging effects. San Jose cannot afford to re-sign Karlsson to this contract and also re-up restricted free agents Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc without making some sacrifices. Priority unrestricted free agents like Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Gustav Nyquist, and Joonas Donskoi cannot all return if any can. Signing even one of those players may force the Sharks to move out other salary from the roster. Additionally, per the terms of the original Karlsson trade, San Jose will also surrender a 2021 second-round pick to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for extending their acquisition. As for the rest of the free agent market, one of the top names is now off the board. The demand and thus the price for the next tier of defensemen – Jake Gardiner and Tyler Myers – just went up, as did the cost of bringing in a big name like Artemi Panarin or Matt Duchene after both Karlsson and Jeff Skinner received larger contracts than expected.

The greater story here though is that the Sharks’ Stanley Cup window, which some saw as closing if Karlsson, Pavelski, and Thornton were all to leave, has now been extended with the re-signing of one of the game’s best defensemen, so long as he can stay healthy. With Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic together on the blue line for at least six more years and core forwards like Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl, and soon Meier locked up, the team has strength at both ends and will continue to be a top competitor year in and year out.

 

Financial Flexibility Key To Sharks’ Offseason

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The San Jose Sharks went all-in this season. A team that was already strong enough to compete for the Stanley Cup decided to go out and acquire Erik Karlsson before the start of the season, sending a huge package of assets to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for the star defenseman. That came just a few months after the team had snatched Evander Kane at the 2018 trade deadline, which had already cost them a fair amount of draft capital. As if that wasn’t enough, they then went out at this year’s deadline and acquired Gustav Nyquist for another set of picks, leaving them with just one selection in the first four rounds this year and without their first and third picks next season.

That kind of shopping spree usually leaves a team with plenty of regret if they don’t end up winning it all. The Sharks, if you weren’t paying attention, didn’t win it all.

Still, as San Jose head into the offseason after another disappointing playoff loss, there is still hope. Despite having a relatively bare cupboard of draft picks, and three players on the roster making more than $8MM per season despite being on the wrong side of thirty, the Sharks have an incredible amount of flexibility this summer. That’s thanks to a whopping seven players reaching unrestricted free agency, allowing the team to pick and choose who they bring back and for how much.

Obviously, watching Karlsson walk after one year—or Nyquist after a few months—would be frustrating for the Sharks. The same could be said about long-time leaders in Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton, both of whom are also set to become unrestricted free agents. But within that potential frustration is also an opportunity, one which could result in the Sharks being just as competitive again next season, albeit with a different cast of characters.

Specifically, Karlsson and Nyquist come with more than just a monetary price tag. Both players will cost the team a second round pick if they re-sign, to Ottawa or Detroit respectively, as part of the conditions of their trades. That may end up being a deciding factor if GM Doug Wilson doesn’t want to lose any more of his already rare picks. Pavelski and Thornton meanwhile come with age and injury concerns, given how their last few seasons have gone. Both—and perhaps especially Pavelski—are still effective, but Wilson may have to make the hard decision of letting franchise icons leave, as he did with Patrick Marleau two years ago, if they demand too much money.

It’s that money question that is what makes this summer so interesting for the Sharks. CapFriendly currently projects San Jose to have nearly $25MM in cap space for next season, thanks to just 14 players in the entire organization with one-way contracts. Obviously the team will need to sign several players to fill their ranks, but they aren’t forced into anything at the moment. The next wave of on-ice leaders for the Sharks is  going to include players like Kevin Labanc and Timo Meier, but both are restricted free agents who can either be signed long-term or short depending on the rest of the offseason. Neither one has arbitration rights, meaning the team can take negotiations slow if they choose.

Like last offseason, when the Sharks made a pitch to top free agent John Tavares, Wilson can see what the prices are on some of the other top names before backing himself into a corner. Thornton has already said that he would only come back to play for San Jose, while it would be hard to see Pavelski running into the arms of another team without giving the Sharks every chance to match whatever offers come in.

There’s nothing good about having such a small selection of draft picks, but the Sharks have done so well over the last few years—Labanc, for instance is a sixth-round pick from 2014 who looks like he may be a 70-point scorer one day—they have enough built into the system to overcome this short lull. It’s free agency that will be really interesting for a team that can’t seem to get over the hump, and they have more than enough financial ammunition to make it a show.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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