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Goalie Notes: Binnington, Carolina, Edmonton

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Jordan Binnington has been a revelation for the St. Louis Blues this season. A 25-year-old rookie who didn’t make his first NHL start until January, Binnington somehow managed to record 24 wins, a .927 save percentage, and a league-leading 1.89 GAA this season and has led the Blues to the Western Conference Final thus far in these playoffs. Binnington will be 26 before next season and has just 33 career appearances, yet he is a Calder Trophy candidate and undeniably St. Louis’ MVP in this amazing turnaround season. So how do you compensate a season like this? The Hockey News’ Matt Larkin wondered the same thing and explored three comparable contracts that the Blues may explore this off-season. The first belongs to a player with many similarities to Binnington, NHL journeyman Andrew Hammond. Hammond’s breakout season with the Ottawa Senators in 2015 was even more impressive than Binnington’s, that is until he lost his job to a healthy Craig Anderson in the postseason. A 26-year-old “prospect” with only 24 NHL appearances to his name, Hammond received just $1.35MM per year over three years from the Senators following his big season. However, Larkin points out that Hammond was not expected to be the starter in Ottawa, whereas Binnington is undoubtedly going to begin next season ahead of Jake Allen on the Blues’ depth chart. He also notes that Binnington has arbitration rights this season and no reasonable arbitrator would be convinced that Binnington is worth an equivalent contract to Hammond’s, which would only be about a $1.5MM AAV. On the other end of the spectrum, Larkin uses Winnipeg Jets’ starter Connor Hellebuyck as an example. Hellebuyck, another older prospect out of UMass – Lowell, Hellebuyck joined the Jets in 2015-16 at age 22 as the backup, struggled the next year as the part-time starter, and then had a breakout campaign last year in the final season of his entry-level contract. Winnipeg responded with a six-year deal worth more than $6MM annually for Hellebuyck. However, by the time he signed his extension, Hellebuyck had played in 149 games over three seasons, a much larger sample size than Binnington’s. He was also younger and entered the NHL with far great expectations compared to Binnington’s relative obscurity through a long AHL career. Thus, Hellebuyck also fails to be a convincing comparison for Binnington. Larkin finally settles on the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Matt Murray. Murray also came out of nowhere as a rookie, albeit a 21-year-old rookie, to start 13 games down the stretch and then lead the Penguins to a Stanley Cup behind a stellar postseason. Despite Murray’s lack of NHL experience, the Penguins had seen enough to reward their young keeper with a three-year extension worth $3.75MM per year. While Binnington is significantly older and a less heralded prospect, he has a larger sample size and slightly better regular season numbers than Murray, making the deal a fair comparison. Under the current salary cap, which is likely to increase this summer, Murray’s deal would equate to about a $4.25MM AAV for Binnington. So what should Blues fans expect in a Binnington extension? The safe bet is somewhere between three and four years at $4-4.5MM per year, but a Stanley Cup title could still push that value even higher for the breakout keeper.

  • According to Shawn P. Roarke of NHL.com, Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour says there is a “pretty good chance” he goes back to Curtis McElhinney in net for an elimination Game Four against the Boston Bruins on Thursday. McElhinney has played well this postseason in relief of Petr Mrazek, including in Game Three. McElhinney made 29 saves and allowed just two goals on Tuesday night after Mrazek surrendered ten goals combined in Games One and Two. At this point, McElhinney does seem to give the Hurricanes the best chance to win against Boston, but is there more at stake here? Whether McElhinney or Mrazek are in net, the odds of Carolina winning Game Four are slim and the chances they win four in a row to advance are much, much worse. When the ’Canes are inevitably eliminated, they face a reality of both Mrazek and McElhinney being unrestricted free agents. If forced to choose between the two, one would certainly think that the team would prefer to bring back Mrazek, who outplayed McElhinney this season – and is nine years younger. However, they take the risk in going back to McElhinney, who lost nevertheless in Game Three, that Mrazek no longer feels like the top option in Carolina and looks for other opportunities on the open market. After a strong season, the Hurricanes can’t afford a downgrade in net, so unless they are open to spending more on a free agent upgrade to Mrazek – a Robin Lehner or Semyon Varlamov for example – they’ll need to be careful with how the approach his confidence as this playoff run winds down.
  • Is new Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland happy to enter next season with Mikko Koskinen and (Group 6 free agent) Anthony Stolarz in net? If not, he could have a hard time attracting free agents and might instead look to his old team for help. Steve Yzerman may also want to bring in fresh blood in Detroit, but the Red Wings are locked in to Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier next season to the tune of $7MM. The ink is still drying on Howard’s extension with the team and his loyalty likely lies more with the city of Detroit than with Holland. After a nice season, it would be a surprise for Howard to be dealt away. However, Yzerman will likely be willing to move the disappointing Bernier and Holland would seemingly be interested. After all, it was Holland who signed the journeyman to a three-year, $9MM contract just last summer. He very well may feel that Bernier can still live up to that contract, even after a poor first season with the Red Wings. It would not come as much of a surprise if Bernier outperforms Koskinen next season, so if Holland can re-acquire the veteran net minder on the cheap, it could make sense for the Oilers.

Goalie Notes: Rask, Binnington, Colorado

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Up 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Final behind a pair of convincing wins, the Boston Bruins have their eye on a second Stanley Cup title this decade and have the appearance of the team to beat right now. Tuukka Rask has been the Bruins’ best player so far this postseason and maybe the best player altogether. That is the growing consensus anyway, as Rask has emerged as the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy should Boston go all the way. Entering the third round of the playoffs, Vegas odds makers gave the Bruins keeper the best chances to be named playoff MVP after an incredible first two rounds. Two games later, he’s continued his strong play and those odds are only improving. Granted, Cup-winning goalies tend to be given strong consideration for the Conn Smythe every year, as reflected by St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington, San Jose’s Martin Jones, and Carolina’s Petr Mrazek filling spots two, four, and five respectively in the current odds as well. However, it’s more than that when it comes to Rask’s current level of play, as a quick look at the numbers will show that has truly been the best player in these playoffs so far. In 921 minutes, almost an hour more than Binnington in second, Rask not only leads all goalies in time on ice, but also tops all starters in wins and save percentage and is second in goals against average. Ruling out relief appearances by Dallas’ Anton Khudobin and Nashville’s Juuse Saros and two starts from Carolina’s Curtis McElhinney, Rask’s .937 save percentage is the best so far this postseason and, were it not for the New York Islanders’ Robin Lehner, Rask’s 2.02 GAA would also be tops. In fact, the Bruins allowed two late goals in Game Two against the Hurricanes after sitting back on a 6-0 lead, without which Rask would lead all categories and would hold a sub-2.00 GAA.

Rask has often faced unfair criticism during his time in Boston for lacking a “clutch” factor, despite winning a Vezina Trophy and leading the team to the 2013 Stanley Cup Final. In fact, while Rask may not get much recognition, he is quietly one of the better goaltenders in NHL history on paper and has been even better in the postseason. Rask’s career playoff save percentage currently sits at .927, ranked seventh all-time and fourth among active goalies, while his 2.21 GAA is 14th in the modern era and again fourth among active goalies. Compared to his career regular season .921 save percentage and 2.28 GAA, Rask is better in the playoffs, yet his regular season numbers rank third and fourth all-time behind only the likes of Dominik Hasek, Ken Dryden, and Martin Brodeur. Rask is certainly due more respect than he tends to get and if he continues this impeccable playoff run, he should get it in the form of the Conn Smythe Trophy.

  • Ranked second in the Conn Smythe odds and second among the four remaining starters in time on ice and goals against average, Binnington has continued to be the surprise performance fueling the Blues amazing turnaround season. A 25-year-old rookie who forced himself into Calder Trophy consideration with a stunning second half, Binnington recorded 24 wins, a .927 save percentage, and a league-leading 1.89 GAA this season. Yet, his numbers have tailed off in the postseason, although it’s been enough to get St. Louis through to the Western Conference Final. Is there more to Binnington’s slight struggles than just tougher competition in the playoffs? TSN’s Frank Seravalli writes that it’s hard to ignore the similarities between Binnington’s season and that of Andrew Hammond in 2015, when the “Hamburglar” took the league by storm. Hammond also arrived on the NHL stage late in his career and without much initial fanfare. He posted even better numbers in his rookie year than Binnington did his year and led the Ottawa Senators to the postseason, stealing starts from Craig Anderson along the way. However, he faltered in the playoffs and was replaced by Anderson mid-way through a first-round exit. Hammond put up pedestrian numbers as the Senators’ backup the next season before completely falling off the map. Could the same fate await Binnington? Already Binnington has bested Hammond’s season by continuing to play well in the playoffs, but how he’ll perform next year remains a mystery. In speaking with Blues coaches and players, Seravall notes that no one is worried that Binnington will fizzle out, this year or next. St. Louis fans just have to hope they are right, especially if the team opts to enter next season with the same tandem of Binnington and the inconsistent Jake Allen. 
  • After the Colorado Avalanche signed 22-year-old Adam Werner to his entry-level contract today, they now have two goalies under contract for next season, and that’s it. Fortunately, one of those two is starter Philipp Grubauer, who came on strong in the second half of the season and in the postseason. He looks like a solid starter moving forward, but the Avs have many decisions to make behind him before next season. Werner should be no higher than fourth on the depth chart next year, so he’s not the solution as Grubauer’s backup by any means. Spencer Martin, 23, is a restricted free agent who should be back with the team. However, Martin struggled in the AHL this season and has yet to assert himself as a true NHL option through four pro seasons. Current backup Semyon Varlamov is a free agent who seemingly remains on good terms with the Avalanche, but is coming off a contract worth $5.9MM annually and may not be willing to take less than Grubauer’s $3.33MM on his next deal. This would seem to put this year’s third-stringer, Pavel Francouz, in a promising situation. The 28-year-old KHL import had a strong first season in North America, earning AHL All-Star recognition and making two impressive NHL appearances. Francouz initially signed with Colorado before Grubauer was acquired last summer and expected to compete for NHL time more than he did. Perhaps this could be his opportunity to win a full-time backup job next season. If the Avalanche feel Francouz and Martin are not adequate depth behind Gruabauer, Brian Elliott, Anders Nilsson, and Curtis McElhinney are among the affordable backup options available in free agency.

Deadline Primer: Minnesota Wild

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Central Division, here is a look at the Minnesota Wild.

First-year GM Paul Fenton said it himself today that the Wild “can’t trade draft picks” this year due to their lack of depth in the pipeline. Yet, did they not just trade a fifth-round pick for defenseman Brad Hunt a few days ago? Fenton’s message is clear that the team is worried about their lack of youth on the NHL roster and few elite prospects in the system. He surely does not intend for Minnesota to be a “buyer” in the traditional sense this year. However, there is no reason to think that all of the Wild’s draft picks and prospects are off the table.

Minnesota has quietly won eight of their past twelve games and, while the myriad other teams competing for the final spot in the Central Division or a wild card berth continue to struggle to make up ground, the Wild have pulled away with a three-point lead over the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche. There are still many games left, but Minnesota is starting to differentiate themselves as a legitimate playoff team. With that status comes a need to strengthen the roster and address problem areas – especially the 24th-ranked offense – to make the most of a postseason opportunity. Perhaps Fenton and company can succeed in those goals with pure hockey trades, but odds are the team will warm up to moving more late picks or middling prospects if that’s what it takes.

Record

26-21-3, third in the Central Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$11.87MM of full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN or WAS 5th*, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
2020: MIN 1st, MIN 2nd, MIN 3rd, MIN 4th, MIN 5th, MIN 6th, MIN 7th
* – Wild owe the Vegas Golden Knights the better of their two 2019 fifth-round picks in return for Brad Hunt

Trade Chips

If you believe what Fenton says, then the Wild will be unwilling to move their best trade capital this deadline season. While he namely is talking about high draft picks, that likely also includes top prospects like forwards Kirill Kaprizov, Luke Kunin, and Ivan Lodnia, defenseman Filip Johansson, and goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen. The recent emergence of Jordan Greenway at the NHL level also makes him untouchable. If a team is looking to land a top young player for their rental at the deadline, they likely won’t find one from Minnesota.

However, Fenton’s willingness to make hockey trades – one-for-one player swaps – opens up many other possibilities. 26-year-old forward Charlie Coyle has long been a fixture on the trade block and this could be the year that the Wild finally move the two-way contributor and his team-friendly contract. The other roster forward that could garner considerable attention is 22-year-old Joel Eriksson Ek, who just can’t seem to find his way at the NHL level and could use a change of scenery. With defenseman Mathew Dumba potentially sidelined for the season, Minnesota would be hard-pressed to remain a factor in the Western Conference playoff race while also trading away any of their blue line regulars. However, AHLers Louie Belpedio and Carson Soucy could be intriguing options for rebuilding teams.

Outside of the pro ranks, some other prospects who could be on the move include Providence College forward Brandon Duhaime or London Knights defenseman Jacob Golden, but the Wild will likely be hesitant to move younger prospects if they don’t have to.

With every win, the Wild become less and less likely to entertain any offers for their own impending free agents. In what is already a buyer’s market, Minnesota is unlikely to get great value for their UFA’s and would be better served to hold on to them, whether that’s star veteran Eric Staal or valued depth like forward Eric Fehr, defenseman Nate Prosser, and goaltender Alex Stalock. One piece that could move is current third-string goaltender Andrew Hammond, if a contending team is willing to pay for depth in net.

Five Players To Watch For: F Charlie Coyle, F Joel Eriksson Ek, D Carson Soucy, F Mason Shaw, G Andrew Hammond

Team Needs

1) Scoring Winger: To Fenton’s credit, he has addressed many of Minnesota’s needs already, adding Hunt to improve defensive depth, trading for Victor Rask to add another capable center, and even grabbing Pontus Aberg to help improve scoring. However, the slumping Rask and unproven Aberg alone are not going to turn around one the league’s least impressive offenses, especially with Nino Niederreiter now gone. Outside of Zach Parise and Mikael Granlund, no Wild forward has wowed offensively this season. The team needs to add another goal-scoring forward, preferably a winger, and they need to do it this year if they want to compete with other contenders in the postseason. If Fenton wants to make long-term hockey trades, he could look at adding someone like the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli or the New York Rangers’ Chris Kreider in a deal for a player like Eriksson Ek. If he comes around to the idea of an affordable rental, the Rangers’ Mats Zuccarello may be a better option, while the Ottawa Senators’ Ryan Dzingel or the Detroit Red Wings’ Gustav Nyquist could also be fits. It will all depend on the asking price. If they can add two scoring wingers, even better.

2) Draft Picks: One thing is certain – Fenton’s assessment of the team’s pipeline is not wrong. The Wild lack almost any prospects who realistically project to be top NHL players and desperately need to reload the system with some talent. When it comes to moving pieces around, especially if they do opt to trade away impending free agents, Minnesota would be wise to continue to protect their own high draft picks while trying to add more valuable picks along the way.

Senators Intend To Ask Matt Duchene About Intentions After Holidays

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While the Ottawa Senators must await the return of center Matt Duchene from injury in about two weeks after they placed their star player on injured reserve Saturday. However, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos said Saturday evening on Hockey Night in Canada that the team isn’t going to wait much longer on whether it can retain him.

According to Kypreos, the team intends to wait until after the holiday season and then ask him about what his true intentions are about re-signing with the club.

“They probably will pass through the holiday season, but in the new year I think they’re going to want a real hard decision on Duchene, on whether or not he wants to stay or go,” Kypreos said. “If he doesn’t, then there is no question that they’re going to need all the time it can to trade him.”

The Senators paid a king’s ransom for Duchene last season when they sent off Kyle Turris, prospect Shane Bowers, goaltender Andrew Hammond, a third-round pick and the team’s first-round pick in the 2019 draft, which should be a high lottery pick, depending on how the team fares this year. Although Duchene struggled early in Ottawa, he found his way finishing the season with 27 goals and 59 points. If the team opts to move him, they will want to get some of those assets back.

There is still hope in Ottawa that the Haliburton, Ont. native will choose to re-sign with the Senators. He is currently tied for 13th in NHL scoring with 12 goals and 22 points. There had been rumors just a few weeks ago that the two teams were discussing an extension, but Kypreos said little has come from that so far.

“I can tell you, no numbers were ever exchanged,” Kypreos said. “But that won’t keep the Ottawa Senators from asking eventually what his intentions are.”

 

One Year Later: Matt Duchene Will Dictate The Senators’ Future

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A year ago today, the Ottawa Senators made a three-team deal with the Colorado Avalanche and the Nashville Predators. Since then, names like Erik Karlsson, Ryan McDonagh, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, and Tomas Tatar (twice) have all been traded. Yet, it’s that November 5th deal that is still the most memorable recent trade for many, due to both the immediate impact and the lasting results.

In that trade, Ottawa – at a contract impasse with center Kyle Turris – dealt he, first-round prospect forward Shane Bowers, goaltender Andrew Hammond, a first-round pick, and a third-round pick to Colorado. The Avs then flipped Turris to Nashville for defenseman Samuel Girard, forward Vladislav Kamenev, and a second-round pick. It was quite a haul for Colorado and they have yet to even use either of Ottawa’s picks, including a likely lottery pick in the first round next year. The Predators meanwhile signed Turris to a six-year extension and he has 53 points in 79 games since joining the team. The return for all of this for the Senators? Matt Duchene, who a year later is in limbo with an expiring contract and a team that is far from the contender he was promised.

As TSN’s Ian Mendes notes, Senators GM Pierre Dorion was coming off a 2016-17 season that saw his team make a run to the Eastern Conference final. When he acquired Duchene, he thought it could be the final piece of the puzzle to get them back and through that third round of the playoffs. Instead, Ottawa sunk to the second-worst record in the NHL. It’s too late to reverse that trade or the events of last season. The team could have simply traded Turris for picks and prospects at the deadline, as Mendes points out, and certainly could have found a deal for a top-six forward this off-season that was far less expensive. Their first-round pick in 2019 could be first overall, franchise center Jack Hughes, and there’s nothing they could do. Boston University standout Bowers could blossom into a top-line forward, but there’s no recourse for that. The only element of the trade left in the control of Dorion and the Senators is the future of Duchene and with it potentially the future of the team.

Ottawa is faced with two choices this season: pay Duchene or trade him. The 2009 third overall pick carries a $6MM cap hit on his current contract. If he were to hit the open market, he would certainly be due a raise. Duchene’s alleged reason for wanting out of Colorado last season was ironically that he didn’t want to play through a rebuild. If that is still his mindset, it would take a substantial sum from the Senators to keep him around. Owner Eugene Melnyk has been unwilling to pay his better player their fair value, leading to the Karlsson trade and likely more moves to come. Will he make an exception for Duchene? If not, the Senators need to move Duchene and sooner rather than later. The trade deadline will be the final opportunity to trade the star center, who will have a long list of suitors, but his value drops each day leading up to that point. Dorion will likely never get back a package commensurate with what he gave up for Duchene, but his best chance to get close is to trade him as soon as possible to the highest bidder.

Either option serves to benefit the Senators. Duchene may not be a superstar, but he is a talented, well-rounded player who is capable of leading Ottawa out of the basement if provided with at least a little support. On the other side, the team cannot escape the reality of their own rebuild and could greatly use the trade capital that they would gain from a Duchene trade. The worst case scenario – and a veritable death knell for the franchise – would be to make neither decision, opting not to trade Duchene and waiting and hoping for an extension agreement only to watch him walk away in free agency. One year later, this notorious trade is still so prevalent around the NHL. The Senators should celebrate the anniversary by making another major move with Duchene – a new contract or another trade – as soon as humanly possible.

Fifteen Players Placed On Waivers

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Another busy day on the waiver wire as 15 players were placed on waivers today, according to TVA’s Renaud Lavoie (Twitter link). No players was claimed from yesterday’s group of 16 players, but with the regular season fast approaching, teams are continuing to make big decisions.

F Justin Bailey (Buffalo)
F Nicholas Baptiste (Buffalo)
F Riley Barber (Washington)
D Matt Bartkowski (Minnesota)
F Patrick Brown (Carolina)
F Erik Condra (Dallas)
G Andrew Hammond (Minnesota)
F Mike Liambas (Minnesota)
D Evan McEneny (Vancouver)
F Greg McKegg (Carolina)
F Michael Mersch (Dallas)
F Liam O’Brien (Washington)
F Kyle Rau (Minnesota)
F Matt Read (Minnesota)
F Anton Rodin (Anaheim) — placed on unconditional waivers (per Lavoie)
D Matt Tennyson (Buffalo)

There are a few interesting names, including the “Hamburglar,” who lost his bid to unseat goaltender Alex Stalock as the backup goaltender in Minnesota. Hammond hasn’t been a full-time backup since the 2015-16 season, but has shown flashes of brilliance when he’s hot, including getting into three playoff appearances for Colorado last year. One of those games, Game 5, Hammond stopped 44 of 45 shots in leading the Avalanche to a 2-1 victory over the Nashville Predators. However, he wasn’t able to keep that success going as he yielded five goals the following game as Colorado was eliminated.

The 23-year-old Bailey is another interesting player who has worked his way up level-by-level and was on the border of a regular spot. Bailey has had three stints in the NHL now and last year’s was one of the more successful ones has he tallied three goals and four points in 12 games. Baptiste is another 23-year-old in Buffalo, who got an even longer look with the Sabres, 33 games, but only managed four goals in that time.

Read is another player with tons of experience. The 32-year-old had played quite a bit in the NHL before struggling to get playing time in Philadelphia, while the 25-year-old Rau posted 23 goals in Iowa last season in the AHL.

Washington’s Options At Backup Goalie

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The Washington Capitals have four goaltenders under contract for the coming season, Vezina Trophy-winning starter Braden Holtby and three unproven young backups: Pheonix Copley, Vitek Vanecek, and Ilya Samsonov. The defending Stanley Cup champions do not necessarily need to make any changes to their current depth chart and would most likely be fine this season with a tandem of Holtby and the hot hand among the three prospect keepers, with Copley getting the job initially.

However, championships are built on being prepared to handle the worst. This current iteration of the Capitals, while almost identical to the team that hoisted the Cup just months ago, is not. The only major departure out of D.C. this off-season was backup Philipp Grubauer, who was traded away to the Colorado Avalanche where he could compete for the starting job. Grubauer was far from a typical backup last season; the 26-year-old made 35 appearances, including 28 starts, which was tied for 37th-most in the league, among the NHL’s most active backups. When Holtby went through a rough patch down the stretch, Grubauer took over the reins as the starter and even got the call in the Capitals’ first two postseason contests. His 2.35 GAA was fifth among goalies with 30+ appearances, while his .923 save percentage was eighth among the same group. Grubauer was as solid as they come last season. Meanwhile, Holtby quietly had the worst season of his NHL career. His .907 save percentage and 2.99 GAA were a major deviation from his career performance, as he struggled with streaky play all year long. Without Grubauer, the Capitals likely would have had a worse playoff seeding and potentially would not have won the Stanley Cup.

So what happens if Holtby struggles again? Normally, it would be easy to say that the star goalie will regress positively back to the numbers that made him a top ten NHL stopper. However, after a deep playoff run added 23 appearances to his workload and significantly shortened his summer, it is hard to imagine that Holtby is fully refreshed and ready to be back in Vezina shape. His play last year may not be an indication of what is to come, but it may be a more accurate comparison for Holtby’s probable performance in 2018-19 than would his three prior seasons of dominant play. Without a reliable backup, the Capitals may be hesitant to lessen Holtby’s workload, but if they don’t they could risk another breakdown. Either way, the Washington backup goalie will not be a non-factor this season.

The first option behind Holtby will likely be Copley. Copley, 26, is a career minor leaguer with just two NHL appearances. In contrast, every team in the NHL last season began the year with a backup goaltender that had more than two previous appearances. Copley is also far from a prodigy; his numbers with the AHL’s Hershey Bears last season were poor and he only returned to Washington as nothing more than a toss-in to the Kevin Shattenkirk trade. So far in the preseason, Copley has made 41 saves on 46 shots for a paltry save percentage of .891. While the Capitals have put their faith in Copley to this point to be a serviceable backup, the undrafted free agent out of Michigan Tech has never been considered anything but minor league depth before now. Jumping to a primary backup for a goalie who may need substantial assistance is quite the task. Next up would likely be Vanecek, the Captials’ 2014 second-round pick who has not yet lived up to expectations. Vanecek is still only 22 and has room to improve, but since coming to North America three years ago, he has impressed at the ECHL level and failed to do so in the AHL. Vanecek’s numbers while splitting time with Copley on the Hersey Bears last year were even worse; Copley had an .896 save percentage and 2.91 GAA, while Vanecek had an .888 save percentage and 3.04 GAA. Vanecek has potential, but is not ready to be an NHL backup. Samsonov, in his first season in North America, is easily the most talented of the group. A 2015 first-round pick, Samsonov has been playing significant minutes in the KHL since he was 18. In three seasons with Metallurg Magnitogorsk, Samsonov was the primary backup to Vasili Koshechkin and posted a .925 save percentage or better each year. Some hope that young Samsonov can step in and immediately provide that same level of support for Holtby. However, the adjustment to the NHL – and even AHL – can be a difficult one when coming over from Europe. There is no guarantee that Samsonov’s performance will immediately translate. There is also a question of whether Washington will want to harm their heir apparent’s development by costing him starts as the NHL backup. As such, the Capitals are likely to play it safe with Samsonov this season.

Washington’s in-house options to back-up Holtby are not inspiring. The team could absolutely move forward with this group and hope that Holtby can make 65+ starts without a hitch, but there is ample risk involved with that strategy. Normally, it would be tough to significantly upgrade the goaltender position at this time of year, but not this season. Intriguing names are already available and more soon will be. On the free agent market, veterans Kari Lehtonen and Steve Mason remain unsigned. The Capitals do not have much cap space, but if either is willing to take a show-me deal, they would become a massive improvement on the team’s goalie depth. However, both players have been available for much of the off-season and the Caps have yet to pull the trigger. They may instead have their eye on younger, more affordable options. Michael Hutchinson, a free agent signing of the Florida Panthers this summer, is one possibility, as he was already placed on waivers at the earliest possible time. St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington and Vegas’ Oscar Dansk are other waiver options who may have slightly more upside than Copley. That is just the first subset of the backup goalie market though. Teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs (Curtis McElhinney, Garret Sparks, Calvin Pickard), Philadelphia Flyers (Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz, Alex Lyon), and Los Angeles Kings (Peter Budaj, Jack Campbell, Cal Petersen) have major logjams in goal that are prime for a trade or waiver claim. Washington could also wait to target one of a number of third-string goalies trying to be slipped through waivers, such as Al Montoya, Eddie Lack, Andrew Hammond, Anton Forsberg, Zane McIntyre, Jared Coreau, or J-F Berube. The opportunities are out there to upgrade at backup goalie. The only question is whether the Capitals make the move before it’s too late and those opportunities have disappeared.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $77,729,424 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Kunin (two years, $925K)
F Jordan Greenway (two years, $917K)
F Joel Eriksson Ek (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses:

Kunin: $500K
Eriksson Ek: $425K
Greenway: $400K

Total: $1.35MM

The team has just three entry-level players and all three will be critical to the team over the next couple of years. Their 2016 first-rounder, Kunin, suffered an ACL injury in April that required surgery. While he is close to be ready to return, he’s still being held out to allow his knee to fully heal. Regardless, the team has high expectations for him. He struggled to capture a full-time role with Minnesota last year, but scored 10 goals in the AHL in just 36 appearances there, while getting 19 games in with the NHL club. The team will need him to step into a full-time role as soon as he’s healthy. Eriksson Ek, the team’s 2015 first-rounder, got himself a full-time role, but struggled to put up points in the bottom-six, posting six goals in 75 games. A bigger role could allow him to take that next step.

The team also has big hopes for Greenway, who the team pried away from Boston University this spring. The 6-foot-6, 226-pound winger should provide the team with a solid power forward, who could jump into the team’s top-six immediately.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Eric Staal ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Eric Fehr ($1MM, UFA)
D Gustav Olofsson ($725K, RFA)
F Matt Hendricks ($700K, UFA)
F Matt Read ($650K, UFA)
D Nate Prosser ($650K, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($650K, UFA)
G Andrew Hammond ($650K, UFA)

The team will have an interesting decision to make on Staal at the end of this season. Staal, who was coming off a disappointing 13-goal season a few years ago, signed a three-year, $10.5MM deal, which has been one of the team’s best signings in their history. Staal, who many thought might be slowing down, responded with 28 goals in 2016-17 and followed that up with a 42-goal season last year. Now at age 33, what will Minnesota do in a year when he’s 34 and in need of another deal? If he posts another impressive season, the Wild will have to pay up to keep his services. A disappointing year could mean the end of a thrilling ride.

The rest of the group are full of one-year deals in which the players must prove their worth. The team brought in Fehr, Hendricks and Read to shore up their fourth line, which struggled at times last year, while the team also has a pair of veteran netminders fighting for the backup goalie spot in Stalock and Hammond.

Two Years Remaining

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Mikko Koivu ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Jared Spurgeon ($5.18MM, UFA)
F Charlie Coyle ($3.2MM, UFA)
F J.T. Brown ($688K, UFA)

The team gave Koivu a two-year extension a year ago, but the 35-year-old is starting to fade after a 14-goal, 31-point performance last season and could be moved down a line, especially if Eriksson Ek continues to improve. Koivu still remains the all-time leader in both games played and points, however, but this could very likely be his last contract.

Granlund could also be an interesting situation. The 26-year-old has improved his game over the last two season, posting a combined 47 goals and he had a career-high in assists last year with 46. His second half was also a big success as he posted 45 points in 46 games, almost a point a game. If he can keep that production up, the Wild should look good. Fortunately, the team has two more years to monitor his success before they have to offer him a new contract. Coyle is another player, who has the ability to put up big points, yet Coyle has struggled more recently, posting just 11 goals and 37 points in 66 games. However, a broken fibula could have been a cause of his on-ice struggles. The team hopes that he can bounce back and prove he belongs in the team’s top-six.

Spurgeon has been perhaps the team’s best defenseman this season. The 28-year-old missed 21 games with a partially torn hamstring and rushed back for the playoffs, but wasn’t 100 percent. Already injury-prone, the team still has the veteran for another couple of years before they have to decide on another long-term contract.Read more

Minnesota’s Fenton Has Tried To Make Moves This Offseason

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With a new general manager in house and the fact that the Minnesota Wild can’t seem to take a step forward despite reaching the playoffs six straight seasons, many people expected Paul Fenton to do something significant this offseason when he took over.

Instead it’s been a quiet offseason so far for the Wild as they have locked up some of their own players including Jason Zucker (five years, $27.5MM) and Mathew Dumba (five years, $30MM), but the team looks almost exactly the same from last season. The team did add some veteran depth when they signed Eric Fehr, Greg Pateryn, Matt Hendricks, J.T. Brown, Matt Bartkowski and Andrew Hammond. But they are only there to help the team’s bottom lines as well as add some physicality. The core of the team remains in tact. However, that’s not from a lack of trying, according to The Athletic’s Michael Russo (subscription required). In a mailbag column, the scribe writes that he’s talked to many contacts around the league who have told him that Fenton has been working the phones this summer, trying to make a deal, but has had little luck as teams often attempt to low-ball new GMs in hopes of catching a steal when the new GM is desperate to make a deal.

While owner Craig Leopold said he wanted to tweak the lineup after losing in the first-round this year, many felt that he wanted to alter the team’s core of  Charlie Coyle, Zucker and Nino Niederreiter. While Fenton has talked about those three, it is believed he’s talked about almost every player on the team, but hasn’t found a good enough deal yet to pull the trigger. Of course, Coyle and Niederreiter are coming off down seasons, which is not the best time to be shopping them. The 26-year-old Coyle has been with the team for six seasons, but after two straight seasons in which his stats increased significantly, Coyle struggled this year, posting 11 goals and 37 points in 66 games. A lot of that has to do with injuries as he broke his fibula early in the season and then had surgery on both of his wrists after the season, suggesting he was never fully healthy. Niederreiter also suffered a broken fibula as well as dealt with a high ankle sprain, which prompted his season to slip from 25 goals and 57 points to just 18 goals and 32 points in 63 games. Neither made for good trade bait. Zucker himself put up solid numbers last year with career highs in goals (33) and points (64), but he was a restricted free agent, which many teams shy away from.

Other players would have been even more difficult to move considering that Zach Parise is locked up at $7.54MM for the next seven years and has a no movement clause. Ryan Sutter is coming off a serious injury, while Mikko Koivu holds a no-trade clause after signing his two-year extension. Eric Staal, Devan Dubnyk and Jared Spurgeon all have modified no-trade clauses, but were not asked to submit their no-trade lists at the NHL Entry draft in June, suggesting the team had no interest in moving any of them.

With all those issues, it’s no wonder that Fenton and the Wild were unable to shake up the roster like many thought they would. The only positive scenario is that the team, which should be healthier this year, should return to the playoffs again and might be able to turn their fortunes around from then on. The team has a number of young players, who could have breakout seasons, including Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway and Nick Seeler who could help take the team to the next level.

Are There More Moves Coming In Minnesota?

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On Wednesday, the Minnesota Wild did what many thought wasn’t possible when they locked up high-scoring forward Jason Zucker on a long-term deal without putting themselves in an impossible situation with the salary cap. The team somehow managed to re-sign two young stars, both Zucker and Mathew Dumba, to a combined $11.5MM cap hit as well as add free agents Greg Pateryn, Eric Fehr, Matt Hendricks, J.T. Brown, Matt Bartkowksi, and Andrew Hammond all while maintaining some semblance of cap space. The team is projected to enter the season with $1.77MM in cap space and a roster that added talent while only losing the likes of Daniel Winnik and Matt Cullen.

The question now is: is it enough? While it never hurts to return the majority of a roster from a playoff team, there is some question as to whether the Wild are keeping up in the Western Conference arms race. The team has been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and has still won just four playoff series in its 18-year history. Fans are clamoring for more than just regular season success and Minnesota – and new GM Paul Fenton – have instead opted to return the same team so far in an off-season where major changes were expected. Although the new contracts for Zucker and Dumba were more than fair and the team addressed needs for more physicality on the blue line with Pateryn and another option in net with Hammond, as well as adding veteran depth pieces, there will be some who are critical of an otherwise quiet summer.

With so little cap space, the Wild may find it difficult to make many additions in-season as well. As the projected 23-man roster currently stands, Minnesota does not seem to be facing many holes and will get an injection of youth in the form of full seasons for Jordan Greenway and Nick Seeler. However, after getting a glimpse of other prospects like Luke Kunin, Louis Belpedio, and Carson Soucy last season, the team will undoubtedly want to avoid leaving them in the AHL all year. The trio all carry $925K cap hits that exceed the salaries of those on the roster they are most likely to supplant and the result will be even more cap space eaten up. Without moving out some salary, Minnesota will be left hoping their young talent can make a major impact as they will otherwise struggle to add veteran difference-makers over the course of the year.

While observers will always point to the massive contracts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as the contracts that Minnesota could most benefit from moving (although Suter is still one of the most reliable defensemen in the league), the team has also entertained offers for Jonas Brodin and Nino Niederreiter in the past and could do so again. While Eric Staal has been a revelation for the team, they could also look to move the pending free agent if they get off to a slow start and can land a younger asset in exchange. At the end of the season, it could be that this same Wild lineup plus some free agent additions and young players is enough to reverse their postseason fortunes. However, if they fall short again or, even worse, miss the playoffs, the team will finally have to make some major changes. It’s possible that the team gets ahead of that possibility by making some moves this off-season instead.

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