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Expansion Primer: Anaheim Ducks

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The expansion scenario for the Anaheim Ducks is one of the more fascinating stories of this off-season. Ever since the rules of the Expansion Draft were announced, fans have been wondering how the Ducks could traverse such a difficult process for teams with depth at all positions. That was even before Anaheim marched to a Pacific Division title and Western Conference championship appearance behind career-best seasons for Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler, and Josh Manson. Neither the 7-3 scheme nor the 8-skater scheme offer the Ducks enough protection to emerge June 21st unscathed and they have been desperately looking for trade help since they were eliminated from the postseason. Will they find it? Or will the best player on the division rival Vegas Golden Knights be a former Duck?

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Corey Perry (NMC), Ryan Getzlaf (NMC), Ryan Kesler (NMC), Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano, Antoine Vermette, Jared Boll, Logan Shaw, Sam Carrick, Chris Wagner, Corey Tropp, Emerson Etem, Nicolas Kerdiles

Defense
Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Kevin Bieksa (NMC), Simon Despres, Clayton Stoner, Josh Manson, Jaycob Megna

Goaltender
John Gibson, Dustin Tokarski

Notable Exemptions

Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, Jacob Larsson

Key Decisions

The first decision the Ducks really need to make is what scheme they want to use. Many at first thought that the Anaheim would have to use the 8-skater format to protect four defenseman: centerpieces Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Kevin Bieksa, who has a No-Movement clause. However, as the season went on, that decision became even more difficult. Bieksa fell out of favor under head coach Randy Carlyle and will almost surely waive his clause or, if he refuses, be bought out. Yet, young Josh Manson has developed into a shutdown defender like no other in Anaheim. While puck-movers like Lindholm, Vatanen, or Fowler could be replaced by up-and-coming prospects Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, and Jacob Larsson or a healthy Simon Despres, the Ducks would be hard-pressed to replace the skill set of Manson.

So, the Ducks could go eight skaters and protect Lindholm, Vatanen, Fowler and Manson. The problem with that is then Anaheim would lose a young impact forward. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler have No-Movement clauses, but would be locks to be protected regardless. That would leave just one slot left and two budding stars, Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg, in need of protection, not to mention iron man Andrew Cogliano. Vegas fans were salivating at the though of either Rakell or Silfverberg lining up on the Knight’s first line next year, but after the seasons they had, that seems next to impossible. The Ducks are in win-now mode and can ill-afford to lose one of their vital top-six forwards, especially in such a weak free agent market.

Instead, Anaheim will likely choose to go seven forwards and three defenseman as their protection scheme. Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Rakell, Silfverberg, and Cogliano will all be safe, as will three of the Ducks’ top four defenseman. Rather than lose the fourth for nothing, Anaheim has recently boosted its efforts to trade Vatanen. If they cannot, they will have to make a call between he and Manson, as Lindholm and Fowler have separated themselves from the pack as the team’s top two defenders.

The Ducks will also have to make a call about their seventh and final forward. Other noteworthy top-nine regulars like Nick Ritchie and Ondrej Kase are exempt from the draft, so the decision will probably come down to veteran Antoine Vermette or youngster Logan Shaw or Nicolas Kerdiles. Either way, Anaheim is in good shape with meeting the two-forward quota with the likes of Jared Boll and Chris Wagner both qualifying while not really in the conversation for protection. Vermette had a good first season in Anaheim, but he is 34 years old and has lost a step on his famous two-way game. The 25-year-old Shaw plays a physical game and contributed 10 points in 55 games in 2016-17, but was only given limited ice time and doesn’t have the ceiling of a player like Kerdiles. Yet, Kerdiles only played in one regular season game and four playoff games, notching just one assist. His AHL numbers suggest that he could do much more if given the chance though.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Corey Perry (NMC)
Ryan Getzlaf (NMC)
Ryan Kesler (NMC)
Rickard Rakell
Jakob Silfverberg
Andrew Cogliano
Nicolas Kerdiles

Defensemen

Cam Fowler
Hampus Lindholm
Sami Vatanen

Goalie

John Gibson

If the Ducks are unsuccessful in trading Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson could be the prize of the draft for the Golden Knights. The 25-year-old righty has the makings of top-pair defensive blue-liner who could anchor an entire defense. However, he just simply hasn’t reached that level yet, while Vatanen is an elite puck-mover.

If the Ducks do trade Vatanen, Manson is safe and Vegas won’t touch Kevin Bieksa, nor would would they likely take a chance on the injury-riddled Simon Despres. Minor league-caliber keeper Dustin Tokarski won’t generate any interest either. At this point, that decision on the final forward becomes key. Vegas will be on the lookout to get as much upside as possible in the Expansion Draft, and that is what Kerdiles provides. Anaheim can best protect their forward corps by retaining the young winger’s services. Vegas may have interest in Antoine Vermette as a veteran leader, but it’s doubtful. By default, Shaw could be the pick, but it wouldn’t be a major loss for the Ducks.

From potentially losing Jakob Silvferberg, Rickard Rakell, or Manson, if the Ducks can trade Vatanen and get Bieksa to waive his No-Movement clause, they could in fact leave Vegas with very little to choose from and could escape expansion with largely the same team that nearly made the Stanley Cup Final this season.

Goalie Market Far Too Crowded

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Although the expansion draft and entry draft are the immediate matters on the minds of those not involved with the Finals, there is still ample reason to speculate on the UFA class. After all, the ability for teams to start signing players is less than a month away. In a particularly weak free agent class, however, one factor sticks out quite prominently. There are 10 goaltenders who played regularly for their teams this season, who will be vying for far fewer NHL roster spots. Only two teams are truly desperate for a starter, those being the Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets.

None of the available goaltenders even cracks my top 25 free agents, which should indicate how poor some of the tenders’ seasons have been. That said, these 10 names combined have played thousands of NHL games. By my estimation, still leading the pack should be former Calgary Flame Brian Elliott. Elliott’s career stats are decent, and he’s only one season removed from a 38 win, .930 save percentage year with the Blues. However, he melted down in grand fashion this off-season en route to a sweep at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks. It may not be fair, but that will absolutely impact his perceived value around the league. His one-year contract gamble, which looked wise at the time, may cost him now. Also in the “top tier” of goaltenders available are Peter Budaj, who had a career year in Los Angeles, Mike Condon, who is one of the most valued backups league-wide, and Jonathan Bernier, who had 21 wins and a respectable .923 save percentage in the regular season before being totally usurped by John Gibson.

Then there is the “middle tier” of goaltenders who likely won’t see a ton of interest, but could easily serve backup duty, some only on a severely reduced contract. These include Ryan Miller, Chad Johnson, and Steve Mason. Ryan Miller is nearly 37 years old, and although he may still have a bit left in the tank, it’s impossible to imagine a team opting to make him their starter. Complicating matters is that Miller will likely want a multi-year agreement to bring him security. Chad Johnson will likely find work, but it could be a long while waiting. Teams will more than likely scour the field for the bigger names first, and only circle back to him as a security backup. Steve Mason is an interesting reclamation project, especially when you consider that his stats weren’t totally horrendous (.908 SV%, 2.66 GAA). However, his career numbers just aren’t that solid, and the absolute fury he invoked from the Flyers fanbase didn’t boost his confidence or stock. Mason will need to come to terms with the fact that he is no longer a number one goalie, nor will he be paid as one – he earned $4.1 MM on his last contract and he’ll see nowhere near that this time around.

Rounding out the “bottom-most” group is Ondrej Pavelec, Jhonas Enroth, and Curtis McElhinney. Out of these, McElhinney seems the only with a solid hope of finding a gig. He only played in 21 games this past year between Columbus and Toronto, but performed decently. His .917 save percentage, well up from his .905 career, might be just enough to negotiate a contract, perhaps in the event of an injury. Pavelec has been nothing short of a disaster in Winnipeg, with his only good statistical year being 2014-15. He played just 8 games last season, with a .888 SV%. He may be forced to look overseas for employment. Enroth hasn’t fared any better – he’s only played 17 games in the last two seasons, not even tallying a win in 2016-17.

Essentially, none of these goalies will be highly sought after. Condon could realistically see a starting role next season, as could Budaj, which would have been unthinkable in the not-so-distant past. Teams have many options when it comes to goaltending, but none of them are particularly awe-inspiring. The prices on contracts will likely be diminished substantially due to the abundance of available players, and agents could see this situation extend deep into the summer months.

 

Randy Carlyle Inks Extension In Anaheim

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Head coach Randy Carlyle has been extended as head coach of the Anaheim Ducks, per the team’s twitter. The contract is good through 2018-19, with an option for 2019-20. Trent Yawney and Rich Preston will be returning for at least one season, with Todd Marchant returning as Head of Player Development.

The organization is opting to stay the course in what many anticipated could be a tumultuous summer. With Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry getting another playoff older, and Randy Carlyle in the midst of his second tour of duty in Orange County, those central figures all look to remain locked in place for the foreseeable future. Although familiarity is often a good thing, there was a subsection of the Anaheim fanbase hoping for greater change. All three were present when the Ducks won their first and only Stanley Cup 10 years ago. Carlyle had been let go in 2011 before returning this season. His stint in Toronto was the topic of great scrutiny league-wide, but his all-time coaching record remains a sterling 410-283-93.

It’s hard to argue with his relative success this year, however. If the Ducks had lost to the upstart Oilers in the second round, perhaps this extension wouldn’t sit quite as well with fans. These Ducks had a fantastic regular season performance with Carlyle at the reigns, finishing 46-23-13. Their resilience in the post-season (exemplified by a 3-goal comeback late to win Game 5 against Edmonton) was the marvel of the league. Captain Getzlaf looked totally rejuvenated and ready to lead his team back to Finals contention, while youngsters such as Rickard Rakell and Cam Fowler made great strides in their game. Carlyle’s hard-nosed brand of hockey was adopted by this team, which got them to Game 6 of a Conference Final. Whether or not his old school mentality will lead to success long-term remains to be seen. GM Bob Murray doesn’t seem concerned, and stated his unequivocal confidence in the bench boss.

Marchant has done quite well in his front office role since he retired as a skater to don a suit back in 2011. In those 6 years, Marchant has played a large part in the successful ascendance and development of young draftees Fowler (2010), Rakell (2011), John Gibson (2011), Josh Manson (2011), Hampus Lindholm (2012), Frederik Andersen (2012), Shea Theodore (2013), Nick Ritchie (2014), and Brandon Montour (2014). His familiarity with the last two years’ draft picks will be invaluable as well, as Jacob Larsson (27th OV 2015), Julius Nattinen (59th OA 2015), and Max Jones (24th OA 2016) try to build pro careers. Assistant Trent Yawney was promoted from the Norfolk Admirals 3 seasons ago, after his head coaching career in Chicago ended in disastrous results back in 2007. Rich Preston has served has an assistant coach for multiple teams dating back to the 1990s, with a successful return to coach his hometown Regina Pats that ended in 2013.

Western Conference Final Injury Updates

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Game 6 of the Western Conference Final between the Nashville Predators and Anaheim Ducks is underway at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, but neither team is fielding a full-strength roster for this one. Fans were well aware of the serious condition of Predators center Ryan Johansen, but many other key players were still considered day-to-day heading into tonight’s game. With lineups announced, nearly all in question remain out.

For the home team, looking to put an end to this series tonight and clinch their first ever Stanley Cup Final berth, the Predators will have to do so without captain Mike Fisher and bruising forward Craig Smith. Fisher missed Game 5 as well with an undisclosed injury, but given the minimal amount of attention the team had given his condition, many expected Fisher to be back for Game 6. That is not the case, as he misses his second straight contest. Smith was a game-time decision and even took part in warm-ups, but made the call himself that he was not healthy enough to play. Nashville avoided another major loss in the first period tonight, as Viktor Arvidsson was the victim of a game misconduct-worthy boarding by the Ducks’ Nick Ritchie and left the game. However, he returned mere minutes later.

The loss of Ritchie is the least of Anaheim’s concerns, as the major injury issue of the game is the absence of starting goaltender John Gibson. Gibson had played every minute of every Ducks postseason game thus far until getting injured in Game 5 with a lower body injury. However, many believed that Gibson would be ready to go for an elimination game. Instead, Gibson did not even suit up for Game 6, leaving Jonathan Bernier to make his first career playoff start, backed up by Jhonas Enroth. Bernier allowed two goals on the first three shots he faced as the Predators jumped out to an early 2-0 lead. Also missing from the Anaheim lineup (still) is Patrick Eaves and, more surprisingly, Rickard Rakell. Rakell missed Game 5 with a lower body injury, but he too was expected to suit up tonight. Instead, Rakell did not even make the trip to Nashville. For Gibson, Eaves, and Rakell, their injuries may mean that they have played their last games of the 2016-17 season.

Injury Notes: Aberg, Gibson, Johansen

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Nashville fans can breathe a thankful sigh after seeing Pontus Aberg land face-first on a shift well before his diving goal in Game 5. He was ushered off of the bench by officials only after he had been allowed to score the eventual game winner, fearful that the previous impact may have caused a concussion. Although no official word has come, Aberg seems to be fine and obviously in good spirits. “I…lost my tooth, but it didn’t hurt my head.” Obviously, execution of concussion protocol is still less than ideal, but in this one instance Nashville fans aren’t complaining.

Aberg has been an unsung hero for these Predators, this being his first goal of these playoffs. The 23 year-old winger has played the bulk of the past three seasons with the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals, but with the injury bug biting the team, he has taken a spot which he hasn’t relinquished. Especially in light of the injuries to Ryan Johansen and Mike Fisher, the need for a role player to provide some offense was necessary.

  • NBC Sports has surmised from the post-game interview of Anaheim coach Randy Carlyle that goaltender John Gibson is hopeful to recover to start Game 6. Jonathan Bernier needed to fill in as relief in last night’s Game 5 loss due to an unknown lower-body injury and conceded two goals. Going into an elimination game with your backup goaltender is not the ideal scenario, especially considering how solid Gibson has been. Boudreau did caution that Gibson would need to be evaluated again by medical officials before being given leave to play. Notably, Rickard Rakell was also referred to as day-to-day. Rakell has been one of the Ducks’ most creative offensive players, and would be a welcome return to a team that has struggled at times against red-hot goaltender Pekka Rinne.
  •  Ryan Johansen was actually in far worse shape than previously believed. Disclosed by Jon Morosi, the young Predator appears to have suffered Acute Compartment Syndrome, which prevents oxygen from getting to muscles. Built-up pressure and the side effects from reduced blood flow can actually result in loss of limbs or death if left untreated. Johansen had to undergo thigh surgery on Friday and therefore was ruled out for the remainder of the playoffs. Thankfully his doctors caught the issue and rectified it quickly, as Johansen is expected to make a full recovery.

Revision: The article had cited Bruce Boudreau instead of Randy Carlyle. 

Gibson Doesn’t Return After Period 1 Of Game 5

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8:23 CT: The Ducks have confirmed that Gibson is questionable to return with a lower-body injury. Bernier saved 10 of 11 shots in the second period.

7:43 CT: Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson did not return to the ice after the first period of their Game 5 matchup with the Nashville Predators. No word yet, although it is assumed that it’s an injury. Jonathan Bernier takes over in net for the Ducks, who last played on May 7 in a mop-up role against the Edmonton Oilers. Veteran Jhonas Enroth is the emergency backup for the Ducks.

Anaheim Ducks Recall Three

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Just prior to puck drop of Game Two of the Western Conference finals tonight between the visiting Nashville Predators and host Anaheim Ducks, the Ducks announced that they have recalled a trio of players from their AHL affiliate, the San Diego Gulls. Joining Anaheim presumably for the remainder of their playoff run are goaltender Jhonas Enroth and forwards Nicolas Kerdiles and Sam Carrick. 

The group was no longer of use in the minor leagues, as the Gulls season came to an end last night in a 2-0 loss to the San Jose Barracuda, their rival and the affiliate of Ducks’ rival the San Jose Sharks, in Game Five of the series. Now, they’ll look help out the big squad in any way they can. Enroth is simply an insurance policy should John Gibson or Jonathan Bernier somehow unexpectedly be unable to suit up. The veteran keeper began the year at the NHL level with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but after a disastrous start of 0-3-1 to the tune of an .872 save percentage and 3.94 goals against average, he was traded to the Ducks for this exact purpose of being a fallback option. Enroth has eight years of NHL experience and should be able to step in in the unlikely chance that his services are needed. Kerdiles and Carrick lack the experience, but make up for it in energy and ability. Kerdiles made his NHL debut earlier this season and then added two playoff games to his resume earlier in the postseason. He has yet to record a point in three games, but it’s only a matter of time given that the 23-year-old was a point-per-game player for the Gulls in the AHL playoffs. Carrick has not seen NHL ice for over a year, and never with the Ducks nor in the playoffs. The 25-year-old played in 19 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs between 2014-15 and 2015-16, recording a goal and an assist. Carrick has 39 AHL points this season between San Diego and the Rockford Ice Hogs, following a minor mid-season trade with the Chicago Blackhawks.

Whether the Ducks intend to play Kerdiles and Carrick or not, the pair is not in the lineup tonight for Game Two. Anaheim announced their lineup shortly after making the call-ups official, but still went with Chris Wagner and Jared Boll on the energy line. If the Ducks lose at home again tonight and head to Nashville down 2-0, they may look to change things up and give Kerdiles or Carrick an opportunity to make a difference in their playoff fate.

Morning Notes: Krueger, Bernier, Coyotes

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Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet woke the hockey world up this morning with some news on the Vancouver Canucks head coaching vacancy. When he reached out to Ralph Krueger about the rumored interest, the former Edmonton Oilers head coach replied “I have had some interesting chats these past weeks, but my focus remains fully on the Saints for now.” The Saints of course is referring to the Southampton Football Club with which Krueger holds the chairman role and has since his 2014 exit from hockey.

Krueger of course coached the European team at this fall’s World Cup of Hockey, ushering them all the way to the final game against Team Canada. Kruger held the Edmonton job for just one season before being dismissed, but many around the hockey world believe he could easily step behind an NHL bench once again. His players at the World Cup praised him tremendously, and there have been rumors since his exit that he would eventually make his return to the sport.

  • It wasn’t just an overtime winner that thrilled Maple Leafs fans last night, but a goalie switch for the Anaheim Ducks. Jonathan Bernier came on in relief of John Gibson last night, and helped the Ducks claw their way back from a 4-1 deficit. While it’s not clear if that would ever warrant a start from the former Leaf, their fan base would clearly welcome it. The Maple Leafs would receive a draft pick if the Ducks made it to the Finals with Bernier starting more than half the games; a second-rounder if they were to win it all, and a third should they lose in the final series. Gibson allowed four goals on 16 shots, but will likely get back in the net with the Ducks up 3-0 in the series.
  • The Arizona Coyotes are hoping the Minnesota Wild can claw back from their own 3-0 deficit to the St. Louis Blues. When the Coyotes traded Martin Hanzal to Minnesota at the deadline, they agreed to a condition that would see them receive a draft pick based on how many series the Wild win in the playoffs. Should the Wild be eliminated by the Blues, Arizona will get a 2019 fourth-rounder, but if they somehow climb back it could move all the way to the second round with two series victories.

Morning Notes: Flames Burn Out, Toronto’s Unlikely Hero, Looking Ahead

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Saturday April 15th was a riveting evening of hockey for any fan of the sport. The Blackhawks were dominated 5-0 by the Predators in Game 2, but the other three games were all nail-biters. The Flames looked to take the lead after climbing out of a 2 goal deficit in the 2nd period, but the call on the ice of goalie interference against John Gibson kept the game tied. The Ducks would go on to get a bizarre ricochet goal from the stick of Ryan Getzlaf with just 4:46 remaining in regulation to secure an ugly win, and go up 2-0 in the series.

  • The Leafs’ Kasperi Kapanen has not been in the spotlight – the likes of Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews have been so phenomenal that he is easily forgotten in the mix. The promising young crafty forward was the centerpiece of the Phil Kessel deal, which until now, had undoubtedly looked to favor the Penguins. Serving 4th-line duty, the forward had only scored one goal in his 8 games up with big squad this season. In the second overtime of Saturday’s Game 2 versus the Capitals, the forward crept in to the back post as Brian Boyle used his lanky frame to fool the netminder into sealing the near post in anticipation. The result was a gorgeous finish to a game where an unlikely hero was desperately needed. If the forward can build on this huge goal, perhaps he can become an X-factor in a series where they are the underdogs. He seems to be confident in the team’s chances.
  • The Senators would not go down quietly. Down 2 goals through 40 minutes, the squad rallied to tie the game with tallies from Chris Wideman and Derick Brassard. As mentioned in an earlier post, Chara’s late regulation delay-of-game penalty proved quite costly, as the Senators capitalized on the powerplay’s momentum and ended the overtime quickly. Dion Phaneuf hammered one home after the team had hit two posts previously in quick succession. The series has been incredibly tight, but surely Bruins fans will lament the lost opportunity, especially in light of their badly bruised defensive squad.
  • Four games will take place this Sunday. The Wild will try to avoid going down 3-0 in hostile territory, the Blue Jackets will hope to dodge a similar fate with cannons firing, and the Sharks and Rangers look to go up at home after splitting the first two on the road.

Anaheim Ducks Re-Assign Jhonas Enroth To San Diego

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In what is one of the best things an Anaheim Ducks fan can hear—though not because of anything he has done wrong—Jhonas Enroth has been sent back to the AHL. The goaltender didn’t play, but has been with the team for two weeks as John Gibson rehabbed from his latest lower-body injury. The move signals that Gibson is at least healthy enough to backup Jonathan Bernier, giving the Ducks two capable goaltenders.

Since Gibson’s original injury in late February, Bernier has gone 10-2-1 with a .937 save percentage and created somewhat of a goalie controversy where there had previously been none. With Randy Carlyle’s familiarity with Bernier from their time in Toronto coupled with Gibson’s expected rust after being out for so long, it wouldn’t be unfathomable for the team to go with Bernier to start the playoffs (Maple Leafs fans rejoice, as that is good news for you).

Either way, the demotion of Enroth is good for the Ducks who have recently taken over first place in the Pacific Division and are trying to lock up home ice advantage for the majority of the playoffs. If they can finish first in their division, they’ll still likely have to go through a Pacific rival in the first round, meaning they’ll need all the healthy bodies they can get.

For Enroth, he’ll return to San Diego where he has been spectacular this season, putting up a .944 save percentage since being acquired from the Maple Leafs earlier this year. The Gulls have already locked up a playoff spot and are a real threat for the Calder Cup now that they have their best goaltender back.

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