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Salary Cap Deep Dive

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Montreal Canadiens

October 22, 2021 at 7:30 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 8 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Hit: $90,481,370 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Cole Caufield (two years, $881K)
D Alexander Romanov (one year, $894K)
F Nick Suzuki (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Caufield: $300K
Romanov: $637.5K
Suzuki: $537.5K
Total: $1.475MM

Caufield joined Montreal late last season and wound up playing in their top six pretty much the rest of the way including for most of their playoff run.  Viewed as a possible contender for the Calder Trophy, expectations are quite high for the 20-year-old who is a candidate to bypass a bridge contract and sign a long-term pact.  That’s what happened with Suzuki (we’ll get to his extension later) who is quite the bargain this season before his next deal kicks in.  Both players have very good chances of hitting their bonuses.

Romanov played a regular role during the regular season but hardly played during the playoffs.  This season, he has moved up and down early on and hasn’t really locked down a spot in the top four.  That has him trending towards a bridge contract while he could hit one or two of the three ‘A’ bonuses in his deal.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Adam Brooks ($725K, RFA)
D Ben Chiarot ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Brett Kulak ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Artturi Lehkonen ($2.3MM, RFA)
G Sam Montembeault ($750K, RFA)
D Sami Niku ($750K, RFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($950K, UFA)
F Mathieu Perreault ($950K, UFA)
D Chris Wideman ($750K, UFA)

Lehkonen has been an effective checker for Montreal for the past few seasons but his price tag is approaching the point where he’s getting too expensive for that role.  If he winds up on the fourth line for a good chunk of the season, he becomes a non-tender candidate.  Otherwise, if he scores enough to stick around, his raise shouldn’t be too substantial.  Paquette and Perreault signed as unrestricted free agents back in July and have had limited roles so far this season.  With the cap crunch that’s looming, this is the price tag they’ll need their fourth liners to have, if not a little lower.  If they take something like that next summer, a return is possible.  Brooks was added on waivers and will need to have close to a regular role to avoid Group VI UFA status.  At this point, he should be able to get a small raise – particularly if he becomes UFA-eligible – but should still be in the six-figure range.

Chiarot’s contract with the Canadiens was a head-scratcher when he signed it in that it seemed to be well above his value but he has established himself as a top-four blueliner and his performance in the playoffs certainly helped his value.  A raise next summer certainly isn’t out of the question although it’s doubtful it will come in Montreal with their cap situation.  Kulak has played well at times and struggled at others, shifting him to a lower rung on the depth chart.  His spot is one they’ll likely want to carry someone a little cheaper in moving forward.  Wideman and Niku were added to try to add some firepower from the back end though both have struggled in their own end in the past which has hurt their value.  If one of them becomes a regular, there’s a case to be made for a raise next summer but if they’re in and out of the lineup, another contract close to the minimum is likely.

Montembeault was brought in as extra depth in the preseason and is basically a short-term placeholder as the backup right now.  It’s certainly not ideal from a development scenario – he turns 25 next week and has only 130 career professional appearances – and that will hurt his next contract unless he winds up being the number two option all season long.  At this point, another two-way deal near the NHL minimum is likely.

Two Years Remaining

G Jake Allen ($2.875MM, RFA)
F Paul Byron ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM, UFA)

Drouin’s return has been a positive one after taking a leave of absence late last season.  On the whole, his production with Montreal hasn’t lived up to the price tag which would have him seemingly heading for a pay decrease unless he is able to establish himself as a consistent scoring threat over the next two seasons instead of being consistently inconsistent.  Byron has been one of the better waiver pickups in recent years but with where he is on Montreal’s depth chart when fully healthy (the fourth line), it’s a deal that’s well above market rate.  It’s a premium they could once afford but this contract will cause them some issues next summer.

Allen opted not to test the free agent market this past summer, instead inking a two-year deal shortly after being acquired and putting him on what appeared to be a pathway to Seattle until he wound up being protected.  Viewed as an above-average backup, he’s making a bit less than what typical second-stringers have recently landed on the open market.  They’ll get good value from this deal.

Three Years Remaining

D Joel Edmundson ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Toffoli ($4.25MM, UFA)

Hoffman didn’t have much luck in free agency a year ago, having to eventually settle for a one-year deal.  However, he fared much better this time around, signing this contract within a few hours of the market opening up.  A consistent scorer, Hoffman should fill some holes offensively for the Canadiens but his limitations otherwise make him a bit of a curious fit.  Toffoli, who is more of a two-way player, is a better fit for Montreal and is coming off a surprisingly strong first season with the Canadiens that saw him finish seventh in the league in goals scored.  That was a nice return for someone making the money of someone on the second line.

Edmundson’s first season with Montreal was a good one, as he earned a spot in their top four while logging over 20 minutes a game during the regular season and more than 23 minutes per night in the playoffs.  He doesn’t produce much offensively but players like him have been in the $3.5MM to $4MM range over the last couple of offseasons.

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Four Or More Years Remaining

F Josh Anderson ($5.75MM through 2026-27)
F Jake Evans ($750K in 2021-22, $1.7MM through 2024-25)
F Brendan Gallagher ($6.75MM through 2026-27)
D Jeff Petry ($6.25MM through 2024-25)
G Carey Price ($10.5MM through 2025-26)
D David Savard ($3.5MM through 2024-25)
F Nick Suzuki ($7.875MM from 2022-23 through 2029-30)
D Shea Weber ($7.857MM through 2025-26)

Gallagher has been a consistently productive sparkplug throughout his tenure with Montreal and had been on one of the bigger bargain deals in the league on his last contract ($3.75MM).  That was changed with this new pact, one that carries some risk with Gallagher’s wrist issues in the past and his style of play which isn’t one that lends itself towards aging well.  Anderson’s contract was a big shocker when he signed it as he was coming off his one-goal season but he did relatively well in his first season although his point total was still somewhat underwhelming.  Power forwards get paid and that held true here although it’s unlikely he’ll produce enough to provide positive value on the contract.

As for the forward deals that start next season, Suzuki is now firmly entrenched as Montreal’s top center, allowing him to skip the bridge deal and earn a fairly hefty salary for someone whose career high in points is 41.  There is certainly some extrapolation in this deal; it’s likely he’ll be a bit overpaid at the beginning with the hopes that they’ll get some surplus value in the back half of it.  Evans is only in his second season of being a regular NHL player and he has been asked to step onto the third line.  If he can handle that role and up his production, this deal could be a below-market one but if he struggles, he’ll be a bit on the highly-paid side for a fourth liner.

There are plenty of question marks surrounding Weber.  He’s not expected to play this season which has allowed Montreal to put him on LTIR; they’ll use that to stay in cap compliance when Price and Byron return from their LTIR stints.  Can he play again?  Comments from the team over the summer seemed to suggest it was unlikely although nothing has been definitive yet and the Canadiens haven’t shifted their captaincy over to a healthy player yet.  If he can’t come back, he’ll remain LTIR-eligible.  Worth noting, the last three years of the deal are for $1MM in salary which makes him a candidate to be flipped to a team that’s well under the cap floor.  That coincides with when Montreal’s liability for salary cap recapture would lapse as their total accumulated cap hit would exceed salary paid.  (Nashville’s remains intact for the remainder of the contract.)

Petry has played behind Weber throughout his time in Montreal but now is their undisputed top defender at the price tag of a second option.  If he’s able to take on the extra workload while hovering around the 40-point mark again, this deal should hold up well.  Savard was brought in effectively as Weber’s replacement, at least when it comes to the defensive side of things.  He struggled last season and while the AAV is reasonable for a top-four player, it could become an issue if he isn’t able to play in the top four by the end of it.

Price is the highest-paid goalie in league history and with the way the goaltending market has shifted the past few years towards more of a tandem style, it’s reasonable to think no one else is getting to his AAV anytime soon.  For that price tag, the Habs haven’t got much from Price over the past couple of regular seasons which have been somewhat pedestrian.  His playoff numbers have been much better but if their plan is only to play him 45-50 games when he’s healthy, his contract is quite an overpayment for that role.

Buyouts

D Karl Alzner ($1.958MM in 2021-22, $833K in 2022-23 and 2023-24)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Toffoli
Worst Value: Price

Looking Ahead

For this season, the Canadiens should still be cap-compliant when Price and Byron come off LTIR although they won’t have much wiggle room at that time which will limit what they’re able to do as the season progresses.

That wiggle room is basically completely gone for 2022-23.  With Suzuki’s deal kicking in, they have $84.1MM in commitments to 13 players.  Even if you subtract Weber off the books completely (which isn’t exactly accurate based on how LTIR is actually calculated), that basically leaves them with enough room to try to round out the roster with minimum salary players.  Romanov won’t be signing for that and if they want to keep Chiarot, they’re going to have to get rid of a core player to be able to afford him.  GM Marc Bergevin has committed to this core for the foreseeable future and it’s difficult to see them being able to afford to add much to it anytime soon.  If anything, the cuts will be coming starting next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Montreal Canadiens| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

October 11, 2021 at 7:42 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $70,019,735 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jesper Boqvist (one year, $925K)
F Jack Hughes (one year, $925K)
F Dawson Mercer (three years, $894K)
D Ty Smith (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:
Hughes: $2.85MM
Mercer: $400K
Smith: $400K
Total: $3.65MM

Hughes showed some improvement in his second season but isn’t playing at the level that a recent first-overall selection is expected to.  Many expect him to take a step forward this year but it’s fair to wonder if that will be enough to get him a long-term deal or whether he’d be better off with a bridge.  Nico Hischier’s contract (more on that one later) would be the potential comparable but if Hughes thinks he can hit another level, his camp would be better off going for a short-term second contract.  On the bonus front, the ‘A’ portions are certainly attainable ($850K in total) while the ‘B’ ones seem unrealistic for him to get to.

Boqvist, who was sent down to start the season, should earn a limited role before too long.  As a result, a short-term second deal is likely.  Mercer made the team out of camp but it’s too early to assess whether he’ll be able to hit some bonuses while forecasting his next contract before he plays a game isn’t really doable.  There are other forwards (Tyce Thompson and Alexander Holtz) that could play their way onto the roster but they’re candidates to go back and forth which makes it unlikely their respective bonuses are hit.

Smith’s rookie season was an impressive one as he locked down a spot inside New Jersey’s top four on the back end while chipping in offensively.  Lots can change over the next two years but assuming he progresses, he’s looking at a significant raise and could be a candidate for a long-term pact that buys out a few UFA years as well.  His bonuses are certainly achievable as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Jesper Bratt ($2.75MM, RFA)
D/F Mason Geertsen ($725K, UFA)
D Christian Jaros ($800K, UFA)
D P.K. Subban ($9MM, UFA)
F Miles Wood ($2.75MM, RFA)
F Pavel Zacha ($2.25MM, RFA)

Bratt hasn’t emerged as an impact scorer yet but the speedster has put up at least 30 points in each of his four NHL seasons, including the pandemic-shortened last two years.  He eventually settled on a bridge deal just days before the regular season started although he’ll have arbitration eligibility and a $3.3MM qualifying offer (120% of the AAV) working in his favor this time around.  He needs to establish himself as a bigger threat if he wants to land a considerably higher price tag than that.  Wood is coming off a good season in the goal department with 17 in 55 games and has a $3.5MM qualifier coming his way.  That’s on the high side for someone who hasn’t scored 20 yet but they have the wiggle room to afford that raise even if he remains more of a secondary piece.  Zacha has slowly improved and quietly led the Devils in scoring last season.  He has a $3MM qualifier on the horizon and while he’s basically locked in on the third line with their first-overall picks holding down the top two spots, he can still be an impact piece.  A long-term deal in the $4MM range is a realistic scenario here if he’s around the 35-40-point mark again this season.

Subban is no longer the top-pairing player that he was when he signed this contract and durability has been a concern the last few years.  He’s more of a role player and his next deal might not even be half of his current rate.  He’ll be a candidate to be dealt between now and the trade deadline as long as New Jersey is willing to retain half of the price tag.  Jaros is a depth piece, a placeholder for some of their prospects until one of them is ready to come in.  Geertsen was a surprising waiver claim but with the role he’s likely to have, it’s unlikely he’ll garner much more than the minimum on his next contract.

Two Years Remaining

G Jonathan Bernier ($4.125MM, UFA)
G Mackenzie Blackwood ($2.8MM, RFA)
D Ryan Graves ($3.167MM, UFA)
F Andreas Johnsson ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Janne Kuokkanen ($1.85MM, RFA)
F Michael McLeod ($975K, RFA)
D Damon Severson ($4.167MM, UFA)
D Jonas Siegenthaler ($1.125MM, RFA)
F Yegor Sharangovich ($2MM, RFA)
F Tomas Tatar ($4.5MM, UFA)

Tatar was one of the more intriguing unrestricted free agents in the 2021 class.  His production dipped a bit after two strong seasons with Montreal but what really worked against him was being a healthy scratch for most of their playoff run.  That certainly hurt his value although he still managed to land a decent price tag, albeit not at the type of term he was hoping to command.  If he can help elevate the production in the top six though, he’ll have a chance to land a similar contract two years from now.  Johnsson was acquired as a cap dump from Toronto but didn’t come close to matching the production he had with the Maple Leafs.  That contract will be difficult to move unless he rebounds.

Sharangovich had a nice rookie season buoyed by a good half-season in the KHL before the NHL season got underway.  As long as he stays in their top six, he should be able to produce enough to warrant a raise on his $2.05MM qualifying offer while he’ll have arbitration rights at that time.  Is he a long-term piece for them?  They’ll find out over the next two years.  Kuokkanen didn’t look out of place in a middle-six role last season, his first taste of regular NHL action.  The price tag is a little high given his limited NHL experience but if he even stays on the third line, they’ll get a good return on it.  His qualifier is at $1.95MM with arbitration rights in 2023.  McLeod, a 2016 first-rounder, has had a slower development path but is now waiver-eligible, helping him secure a spot.  He’ll have time to establish himself as a legitimate full-time NHL player and will need to do so if he wants to get more than his $1MM qualifier.

Severson has been miscast in a top-pairing role over the last few years so it will be interesting to see how he fares on the second pairing which is where he’s more suited to be.  His contract has been a bargain considering the role and ice time he has played but now in a more optimal spot on the depth chart, he could stand out a bit more which would certainly improve his fortunes heading into free agency in 2023 where he’s already looking at a raise.  Graves joins New Jersey after Colorado decided they needed to move him out for expansion considerations and he should add a stabilizing presence on the back end.  If he holds down a spot in their top four as expected, he should be looking at a small raise at a minimum on his next deal.  Siegenthaler hasn’t had an extended NHL look but should get one over the next couple of years.  If he’s more of a depth player than an impact one, he shouldn’t get much more than this on his next contract.

Last season was a tough one for Blackwood as he was thrust into the undisputed starting role with Corey Crawford retiring at the beginning of training camp.  A bout with COVID-19 didn’t help things as he struggled upon his return.  He is viewed as their long-term starter but has some work to do to earn the big money contract that number one netminders get.  Bernier was brought in this summer in the role that Crawford was supposed to fill – serve as a mentor to Blackwood while pushing for playing time.  It’s an above-market contract for that role but they have more than enough cap room to pay the extra cost to get the player that the wanted.

Three Years Remaining

No players have expiring contracts following the 2023-24 season.

Read more

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Dougie Hamilton ($9MM through 2027-28)
F Nico Hischier ($7.25MM through 2026-27)

Hischier wasted little time signing his second contract, doing so with a year remaining on his entry-level pact.  It seemed like a reasonable move on both sides – Hischier got some long-term security while New Jersey hoped they’d get a bargain as Hischier develops into a number one center.  That could still happen but the last two years haven’t gone as well as anyone would have liked.  He’s still just 22 and lots can change but they didn’t get much value on the first year of that deal.

For years, the Devils have struggled to lure top free agents to New Jersey even with ample cap space.  That changed with the signing of Hamilton, the big prize on the open market.  He worked his way into becoming a legitimate top-pairing defender, pushing Severson and Subban down a notch while adding another dimension offensively.  It’s a high price in terms of money but with a very clean cap situation, it’s a move that was well worth doing.

Buyouts

G Cory Schneider ($2MM through 2023-24)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Will Butcher ($911K in 2021-22)

Salary Cap Recapture

F Ilya Kovalchuk ($250K through 2024-25)

Best Value: Zacha
Worst Value: Subban

Looking Ahead

GM Tom Fitzgerald has a very clean cap situation in front of him as he looks to navigate the Devils out of their rebuild.  They can still add pieces this season (or take on contracts if needed) without any fear of getting close enough to the cap ceiling where earned bonuses could roll over to next season.

From a longer-term perspective, with only Hischier and Hamilton signed beyond 2022-23, they have all sorts of cap room at their disposal.  Some will towards Hughes and younger players coming off their bridge deals while Severson and Graves are looking at raises as is Blackwood.  They should be able to keep that core intact while still having enough room to add impact players.  There is still work to be done but brighter days are ahead in New Jersey.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

New Jersey Devils| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

September 29, 2019 at 12:30 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $79,773,331 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Mikhail Sergachev (one year, $894K)
F Alexander Volkov (one year, $864K)
F Mitchell Stephens (one year, $833K)
F Anthony Cirelli (one year, $728K)
F Mathieu Joseph (one year, $728K)
D Erik Cernak (one year, $698K)

Potential Bonuses

Sergachev: $850K
Cirelli: $183K
Joseph: $183K
Cernak: $148K

The Tampa Bay Lightning have done exceedingly well with their young players as they always seem to have key contributors filling out their roster who are on low-cost salaries. Unfortunately for the team all of those entry-level contracts will be expiring after this season. However, for a team that is fighting for a Stanley Cup title, the Lightning should be happy to have several of these players around for this year.

At the top of the list is Sergachev, who came over in the Jonathan Drouin trade a couple of seasons ago. Sergachev has improved greatly, but is still battling for a top-four role, one which he may win this season as he continues to develop his skills. The 21-year-old already has 15 goals and 72 points over two seasons, but spent most of his time last year as a third-line option for Tampa Bay. The team hopes he can win a spot on the first line and earn some power play time to allow his offensive skills to kick in for the Lightning. Another strong season could force Tampa Bay to pay up significantly for him. The team also got some impressive play from Cernak last season who came up and found a permanent home with his physical play.

Cirelli and Joseph have made an impact for Tampa Bay as well. After an solid stint back in 2017-18, Cirelli had a breakout season, scoring 19 goals and 39 points last season and could take another step up this season with J.T. Miller gone. Joseph surprised quite a few when he made the team last year out of training camp, posting 13 goals and 26 points in a third-line role most of the time. The opportunities may continue to increase for the 22-year-old who has showed a hard-working mentality as well as solid skill.

Both Stephens and Volkov are in their last year of their entry-level contract, but both could see time up with the Lightning at some point this season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Mike Condon ($2.4MM, UFA — buried at $1.33MM)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)
G Louis Domingue ($1.15MM, UFA) — buried at $75K)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Danick Martel ($700K, RFA)
D Luke Schenn ($700K, UFA)

In their pursuit of a Stanley Cup, the team went out and acquired some veteran players to help the team for this year. They signed Shattenkirk immediately after being bought out from the New York Rangers to give the team a key veteran after they lost Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi in the offseason. The team hopes Shattenkirk can find his game and stay healthy this year and be able to provide quality minutes. They also hope Schenn can provide solid depth and physicality at the bottom of their lineup. On offense, the team also went out and signed Maroon to add some grit to their fourth line after the team lost Ryan Callahan to injury. Callahan was very productive in his time with the Lightning, but injuries derailed his last couple of years.

To unload the final year of Callahan’s contract, the Lightning traded him to Ottawa and were forced to accept Condon, who the team has already buried in the minors to give the team more cap flexibility. Domingue has been buried in the AHL as well.

Two Years Remaining

D Braydon Coburn ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($1.65MM, UFA)
G Curtis McElhinney ($1.3MM, UFA)
D Luke Witkowski ($700K, UFA)

Despite a solid backup in Domingue, the Lightning surprised quite a few people when they inked McElhinney to a two-year deal, plucking him away from a number of interested teams. The 36-year-old veteran had an impressive season after being claimed by Carolina at the beginning of last season. McElhinney appeared in 33 games, picking up 20 wins with a 2.58 GAA and a .912 save percentage. The hope is the veteran will provide some extra insurance and maybe take some of the workload off the starter this season.

The team also has high hopes that bringing back Coburn as well as a gritty multi-versatile player like Witkowski will give Tampa Bay some much needed depth on their blueline.

Three Years Remaining

F Brayden Point ($6.75MM, RFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)

The Lightning has done exactly what it wants to do with Point, which was get him signed to a three-year bridge deal, something the team does with all its players before locking them up to long-term deals. Now the team has three more years to evaluate him before they have to lock him up to a long-term deal. The deal is actually quite reasonable, considering how much the center has excelled in each of his three seasons. Point’s rookie season was solid with 18 goals, but that number increased to a 32-goal campaign in 2017-18 and he followed that up with a 41-goal, 92-point season last year, making him one of the top young forwards in the game. Regardless, the team was able to sign him for a reasonable cost, giving the Lightning another strong presence at a discounted rate.

On the other hand, Palat may be the opposite of Point. Having struggled with injuries the past couple of seasons, the 28-year-old has appeared in just 120 out of 164 games over the past two seasons and scored a disappointing eight goals in 64 games last year as he’s slipped to a third-line role after a promising 23-goal rookie season back in 2013-14. Since then he’s scored in the teens, but has seen those numbers dip even further with his injury history. Unfortunately, at $5.3MM, the team hopes he can get healthy and rebound as he would be a hard player to find a trade partner for.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM through 2023-24)
D Victor Hedman ($7.88MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM through 2025-26)
F Yanni Gourde ($5.17MM through 2024-25)
F Tyler Johnson ($5MM through 2023-24)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM through 2022-23)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($3.5MM in 2019-20; $9.5MM through 2027-28)

The team has done a phenomenal job of signing their top talent. Kucherov is arguably one of the top three players in the league and is now just starting his eight-year contract at a reasonable $9.5MM. The 26-year-old scored 41 goals and 128 points to win the Hart Memorial Trophy, Art Ross Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award and should be one of the greats for the Lightning for a long time. Stamkos also continues to put up big numbers for someone whose $8.5MM deal looks pretty good. He potted 45 goals last season and a career-high 98 points, which gives Tampa Bay an impressive one-two punch, which doesn’t even include Point.

The Lightning also has quite a bit tied up into their top two defensemen in Hedman and McDonagh. Hedman is one of the top defensemen in the league, only a year removed from winning the Norris Trophy in 2017-18. He posted an impressive 12 goals and 54 points last season and remains in his prime. It’s too early to see how he will fare as he gets older as his contract will run through his age-34 season. But by the time Hedman truly slows down, there shouldn’t be that much time remaining on his deal. As for McDonagh, the team’s second-best defenseman still posted solid numbers, nine goals and 46 points. However, he is two years older than Hedman and has a seventh year remaining on his contract, meaning he’ll be 37 in his final season, which suggests that his contract could become an issue even in just a few years.

As for Gourde, Johnson and Killorn, the team hopes that with the salary cap likely rising over the next few years, those role players’ deals will still look good, if not very good as they age. All have become solid contributors as middle-six players and hopefully will give the team good value over the next four or five years.

Buyouts

D Matt Carle (1.83MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Point
Worst Value: Palat

Looking Ahead

The job that Steve Yzerman has done to get the franchise to this point, which might be one of the most impressive organizations that have been built, is impressive and the hope that Julien BriseBois will continue that success in Tampa Bay. The team had an amazing regular season a year ago, but a quick exit in the playoffs left many to wonder whether the team is as good as many think. However, BriseBois has done a good job bringing in some more veterans as well as some grit in hopes that this offensive team doesn’t get pushed around too much this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Alex Killorn| Andrei Vasilevskiy| Anthony Cirelli| Anton Stralman| Brayden Point| Braydon Coburn| Cedric Paquette| Curtis McElhinney| Dan Girardi| J.T. Miller| Jan Rutta| Jonathan Drouin| Kevin Shattenkirk| Louis Domingue| Luke Schenn| Luke Witkowski| Mathieu Joseph| Matt Carle| Mike Condon| Mikhail Sergachev| Nikita Kucherov| Ondrej Palat| Salary Cap| Salary Cap Deep Dive| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2019| Steve Yzerman| Tampa Bay Lightning

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

September 18, 2019 at 8:25 pm CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $80,346,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jake DeBrusk (one year, $863K)
F Karson Kuhlman (one year, $750K)
D Connor Clifton (one year, $725K + three-year, $3MM extension)

Potential Bonuses

DeBrusk: $450K
Clifton: $20K

The Bruins survived a big restricted free agent dilemma this summer when all three of McAvoy, Carlo, and Heinen needed new contracts. They also managed to help themselves out for next year as well, inking Clifton to a three-year extension that kicks in after this season. However, DeBrusk still presents a major hurdle ahead of them next off-season. The 22-year-old winger, a first-round pick in 2015, has started his NHL career with back-to-back seasons of 40+ points and finishes among the top-six scoring forwards on the Bruins. If he maintains his comfortable spot on the second line next to Krejci, that’s likely to continue. The problem with DeBrusk is that, while he flashes 60-point upside and a natural goal-scoring ability, he also can go on long stretches of very little scoring. Boston likely isn’t ready to pay the young forward like a 60-point player when he hasn’t proven himself to be consistent, especially if they face another cap crunch next summer.

Kulhman and Clifton are likely slated for depth roles to begin the season and are two of many notable prospects fighting for ice time in Boston. However, after each performed so well in the postseason, they have a leg up on taking over regular roles. Injuries on the blue line could push Clifton into a starting job on opening night, while Kuhlman has skated with Krejci and DeBrusk often in camp and could try to show that his hard-working style is worthy of a shot ahead of other talented prospects and veteran additions. The Bruins already foresaw Clifton continuing to improve and locked him up at a bargain rate. Could they do the same with Kuhlman before too long?

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Torey Krug ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Charlie Coyle ($3.2MM, UFA)
G Jaroslav Halak ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Kevan Miller ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Zdeno Chara ($2MM+$1.75MM bonuses, UFA)
D Matt Grzelcyk ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Chris Wagner ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Joakim Nordstrom ($1MM, UFA)
F Brett Ritchie ($1MM, RFA)

Even with the retained salary of Matt Beleskey and the buyout payments of Dennis Seidenberg coming off the books, the Bruins would be hard-pressed to try to re-sign all of these free agents, including DeBrusk and Kuhlman, next summer. Fortunately, that doesn’t seem like their plan. With McAvoy, Carlo, Clifton, and Kampfer signed through 2020-21 at least, the Bruins hardly seem interested in re-signing another righty. Miller is likely in his last season with Boston, taking the injury-prone defender’s cap off the books. 42-year-old Chara could very well be done after this year too. Especially if the team can ween themselves off relying too much on their captain, Chara will likely feel ready to move on. The future Hall of Famer struggled with injuries last season and did not look himself for stretches. Dropping his salary will be even more relief for Boston.

They hope to use that space to keep the left side as strong as the right. The Bruins will soon begin extension talks with Krug, who has stated he would take a discount to stay in Boston. The Bruins’ brass have also shown a dedication to Krug and a willingness to keep him around no matter what. The likely result is a new resolution between the two sides on a long-term deal, perhaps one that could make Krug a career Bruins. Behind him, a similar player in Grzelcyk has quietly developed into a reliable NHL defenseman. While not as dynamic as Krug or McAvoy, Grzelcyk moves the puck well and plays hard. The local product is certainly in line for a raise, but just how big a role he plays this season will greatly figure into the discussions. Grzelcyk is an RFA, but the Bruins hope they won’t have to flex their leverage too much to re-sign a hard-working young player.

Up front, all eyes will be on Coyle this season. Arguably the Bruins’ best forward on their run to the Stanley Cup Final, Coyle has fit in well back home in Boston. Whether he’s skating on Krejci’s right flank or anchoring the third line, Coyle is bound to play an important role this season. If he makes the most of it, getting back into the 50-point range as he did previously with the Minnesota Wild, the Bruins may have a hard time letting him go, especially with Krejci’s contract expiring one year later and Bergeron the year after that. However, the price could be too much. Coyle’s current cap hit of $3.2MM has been a bargain since the moment he signed the contract and he may be unwilling to take a hometown discount.

Wagner, Nordstrom, and new addition Ritchie project to battle for regular play time on the fourth line this year, with Kuraly, Lindholm, Backes, and others in the mix. With those three signed for one season longer and prospects pushing for ice time in the bottom-six, it’s hard to imagine all three players coming back. Ritchie has the best chance of establishing himself as more than just a grinder, and will be an RFA as well, while Wagner surprised with a dozen goals last year and endeared himself to his hometown fan base. Nordstrom is thus likely the odd man out, either due to roster or cap restrictions.

Halak was stellar last year as the backup to Rask, putting up numbers among the best in the league and superior to his starter in just eight fewer starts. Can he keep it up? And if he does, are the Bruins willing to pay for it? Rask’s contract expires after 2020-21 and the Bruins need a starter beyond that point, but it would be strange for the team to invest in the 34-year-old Halak instead of the 32-year-old Rask or someone outside of the organization. If Halak is willing to stay on as Rask’s backup at a reasonable rate, the team will likely be happy to keep him while they wait on prospects to develop, but otherwise Halak will probably follow a long line of talented Rask backups out of town.

Two Years Remaining

F David Krejci ($7.25MM, UFA)
G Tuukka Rask ($7MM, UFA)
F David Backes ($6MM, UFA)
D Brandon Carlo ($2.85MM, RFA)
F Danton Heinen ($2.8MM, RFA)
F Sean Kuraly ($1.275MM, UFA)
F Par Lindholm ($850K, UFA)
D Steven Kampfer ($800K, UFA)

If it weren’t for the value contracts of Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak, people would not be as critical of Krejci. The 33-year-old center just matched a career-high 73 points last season, a more than fair output at his cap number and one that most fan bases would be happy with. However, he is overshadowed by the more productive and more affordable first-line unit. Nevertheless, Krejci is as reliable as they come and is valued greatly by the front office. He will be 35 by the time his contract expires and will likely take a substantial pay cut to finish out his career in Boston, much like Chara.

Rask also receives too much grief for his salary, mostly as it compares to other players on his team. As goalie contracts continue to inflate, Rask’s relative value has improved, especially as he’s strung three solid seasons together, capped off with an incredible performance in the postseason. When his contract expires, he will be 34. It’s not terribly old for a goalie, but old enough that he won’t be looking for another long-term deal. If he’s willing to take a slight pay cut, odds are the Bruins are willing to let him bridge the gap to a prospect or free agent replacement.

The third of the veteran trifecta, Backes’ tenure in Boston has been a nightmare. If he even makes it through his contract in Boston, not being traded or bought out prior, there is no chance he re-ups with the Bruins. Most likely he will retire and the team will celebrate being free from his contract.

Interestingly, it may end up being Carlo who is the biggest name to watch in the 2021 off-season for the Bruins. The young defenseman is developing into a dominant shutdown defenseman, not unlike Chara, and looks like a key piece on the blue line for a long time. How he performs over the next two years and how it is reflected in a long-term contract will be fascinating, especially for a player with little production to show for his game.

Heinen will also be an intriguing name to watch after signing a bridge deal of his own this summer. Is Heinen growing into a top-six scoring talent, like he has shown flashes of? Or is he more of the smart, two-way bottom-six player that shows up most nights. In two years, the team will be more informed and Heinen’s contract will surely reflect how they see him in their lineup moving forward. One way or another, Heinen seems primed for salary arbitration.

Lindholm and Kampfer are depth players who will have to battle for roster spots to begin this season, nevertheless stay relevant through two years. Kuraly is different. The young center has excelled as the Bruins’ fourth-line center and continues to grow in his two-way intelligence and penalty kill ability, while chipping in offense from time to time as well. Kuraly could be on the hunt for more money and opportunity when his contract expires, but if he’s content with his role in Boston, he seems like a long-term fit.

Three Years Remaining

F Patrice Bergeron ($6.875MM, UFA)
D Charlie McAvoy ($4.9MM, RFA)

The changing of the guard could be coming in 2022. With Chara likely having retired by this point, Bergeron will be captain and will likely be wrestling with retirement or a short-term contract in Boston. One thing is for sure: as long as Bergeron wants to play, there will be a spot for his with the Bruins.

Should Bergeron opt to retire, McAvoy will not only enter the 2022-23 season with a massive new contract, but very likely with the “C” on his sweater as well. One of the best young players in the NHL, if McAvoy stays healthy and continues to produce at a high level over the next three years, there’s no limit to what his next contract could be. He will likely have taken on a major leadership role by that time as well. As the Chara/Bergeron era starts to wind down, it is McAvoy that is the next face of the Bruins franchise.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F David Pastrnak ($6.667MM through 2022-23, UFA)
D John Moore ($2.75MM through 2022-23, UFA)
D Connor Clifton ($1MM through 2022-23, UFA)

F Brad Marchand ($6.125MM through 2024-25, UFA)

What’s better than having Pastrnak signed at less than $7MM for four more years? Marchand at even less for six more years. Although Marchand is eight years older than Pastrnak, neither of the two are slowing down any time soon. In 2023, the Bruins will likely make Pastrnak the highest-paid forward on the team and solidify their young core moving forward, but Marchand will still be a value as a player whose style of game won’t be overly impacted by the aging process. He may not be a 100-point scorer anymore by that point, but he’ll still make an impact and Pastrnak may be a 100-point player himself to pick up the slack. With salary inflation heading the way that it has in recent years, it is incredible to think of the value that these two players will be moving forward.

Then there’s Moore and Clifton, two players who seem like odd inclusions next to Pastrnak and Marchand as the Bruins’ current long-term commitments. In an ideal world, both defensemen will continue to merely be depth options for Boston with the ability to be capable starters if called upon. The younger and more affordable Clifton is likely the better deal, but the Bruins handed Moore a five-year deal last summer for a reason, and it wasn’t because they had an immediate need for a starting left-handed defenseman. As the Bruins’ blue line gets younger, Moore could be a valuable veteran piece on the blue line, even if he does play a non-starting role. Again, given cap inflation, $2.75MM may not seem like as bad a value down the road for a top depth defenseman and mentor.

Buyouts

D Dennis Seidenberg ($1.167MM through 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Matt Beleskey ($1.9MM through 2019-20)

Still To Sign

F Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (RFA, plans to play in Europe in 2019-20)

Best Value: Brad Marchand
Worst Value: David Backes

Looking Ahead

GM Don Sweeney continues to make shrewd value signings, locking up McAvoy, Carlo, and Heinen this summer on discount bridge deals. If he can do the same with DeBrusk and convince Krug and Coyle to stay at home for a reasonable rare, Sweeney will truly show why he earned the GM of the Year title. The Bruins are doing what many teams in all sport struggle to do: rebuild on the fly. As many long-standing pieces depart in the coming years, how the Bruins handle re-signing their young replacements and filling out the roster will dictate just how long this Stanley Cup window stays open.

Boston Bruins| Brad Marchand| Brandon Carlo| Brett Ritchie| Charlie Coyle| Charlie McAvoy| Chris Wagner| Danton Heinen| David Backes| David Krejci| David Pastrnak| Dennis Seidenberg| Don Sweeney| Jake DeBrusk| Jaroslav Halak| John Moore| Kevan Miller| Matt Beleskey| Matt Grzelcyk| Patrice Bergeron| Salary Cap| Salary Cap Deep Dive

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

September 7, 2019 at 7:31 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $73,541,089 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Kunin (one year, $925K)
F Jordan Greenway (one year, $917K)
F Nico Sturm (one year, $874K)

Potential Bonuses

Kunin: $600K
Greenway: $500K

Kunin and Greenway will both have to earn their way onto the team this year, but both have legitimate shots at making the team as a potential third line forward. Kunin showed some promise last season, playing in 49 games and scoring six goals and 11 points, although he will have to take his game up a notch to stay there. Greenway, on the other hand, scored 12 goals over 81 games, picking up 24 points, but the former Boston University star, has the potential for a breakout season for the Wild.

Sturm was the team’s big signing this offseason as he was considered to be one of the top unrestricted free-agent college forwards this year and choose to ink a deal with Minnesota. He scored 36 goals over three seasons at Clarkson University, and while he could make the team out of training camp, he might need a year of seasoning in the AHL as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikko Koivu ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Jared Spurgeon ($5.18MM, UFA)
F J.T. Brown ($688K, UFA)

At 36 years of age, this could be his final year with Minnesota, although much of that decision will depend on how his final season will turn out. The captain was having a solid season with eight goals and 29 points in 48 games, but his season was cut short in February when he went down with a torn ACL and torn meniscus in his right knee. The team can only hope that Koivu bounces back from his injury and is ready to go as the season opens.

Spurgeon, on the other hand, is coming off another impressive season with the Wild and while there had been rumors of Minnesota looking to move their 29-year-old defensive star, the team also hasn’t gotten very far in locking him up this summer as he is eligible to sign an extension. With so much money tied into veteran players, the real question is whether there will be money left to sign Spurgeon to a new deal or whether he wants to stay. If no deal can be made, Spurgeon could be a valuable trade chip at the trade deadline.

Two Years Remaining

G Devan Dubnyk ($4.33MM, UFA)
D Jonas Brodin ($4.17MM, UFA)
F Eric Staal ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($2.88MM, UFA)
D Greg Pateryn ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.9MM, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($1.9MM, RFA)
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($1.49MM, RFA)
D Nick Seeler ($725K, UFA)
D Brad Hunt ($700, UFA)

A lot of the Wild contracts are set with two years remaining, which could make for an interesting offseason in two years, considering that a number of their young players and key pieces will come up at the same time. The team must decide over the next two years is Dubnyk will continue to be the goaltender of the future down the road. He’ll be 35 at that point and he will have to prove he’s still a top-line goaltender. Dubnyk has had two solid seasons over the past two years. He finished the 2018-19 season with a 2.54 GAA and a .913 save percentage in 67 games.

Brodin is another candidate, whose status could be determined by what happens with Spurgeon. The 26-year-old has been a solid defensive presence and a top-four performer, but will have to prove that he is in the team’s long-term plans. If the team signs Spurgeon, it might have to move on from Brodin to save some of its cap room, but the team still has two years to sort it out. After two impressive seasons with Minnesota, Staal’s play dropped a little last year as he managed just 22 goals after tallying 70 in his first two years with the Wild. However, at 36, the team hopes he can still provide enough offense to lead the team and eventually take more of a middle-six role in the future.

The team also has a number of youngsters who will still be restricted free agents, but a breakout year from Hartman, Eriksson Ek or Donato could make any of them an expensive contract in two years. Hartman was brought in to provide a combination of scoring and grit to the team’s bottom-six, while both Eriksson Ek and Donato are both young pieces that the team hopes can move into their top-six within the next two years. Eriksson Ek has struggled since reaching the NHL, scoring just seven goals last season in 57 games, while Donato had stalled in Boston before breaking out after the Wild picked him up at the trade deadline. Donato picked up 16 points in 22 regular season games with Minnesota.

Three Years Remaining

F Victor Rask ($4MM, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($785K, UFA)

Unfortunately, one trade that brought out the wrath of fans was the trade in which now former GM Paul Fenton sent underachieving Nino Neiderreiter to Carolina for Rask. While taking Rask back was part of the deal to match salaries to a certain extent, Neiderreiter established himself as a top-six player in Carolina, while Rask struggled even more. The 26-year-old Rask finished the season with just three goals, two while in Minnesota and there remain questions about what role Rask will play this season. While many have him penciled in as the team’s fourth-line center, there is a legitimate possibility that he could lose find himself buried in the AHL if he can’t rebound and put together a better season. That shouldn’t be too hard. He did score 51 goals over the previous three seasons, so there is potential. As for Stalock, the team has a reliable backup at a very friendly price, but could easily cut him loose if the team can find a better option in net over the next three years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Zach Parise ($7.54MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Suter ($7.54MM through 2024-25)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM through 2023-24)
D Mathew Dumba ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM through 2022-23)

The matching contracts of Parise and Suter are starting to be felt in Minnesota. While both players are still providing solid play, the fact that Parise is 35 and Suter will be 35 in January, could start to be worrisome to fans as they each have six mores seasons left and their play could start declining soon. Parise has dealt with injuries for the past few years although he only missed eight games last season. However, before being fired, Fenton did look into the possibility of trading off Parise, but the pair were brought to Minnesota in 2012 to win a championship and with many people not picking them to even reach the playoffs this year, their usefulness might be at an end unless Minnesota can reshape its roster into a winner sooner than many have been expected.

With what many people thought was a rebuilding phase coming, many people were thrown off when the team signed the 32-year-old Zuccarello to a five-year deal, giving them another high-priced veteran on the team. However, Zuccarello is a solid playmaker who should make a big impact on the Wild’s top-six. He was impressive in the playoffs for the Dallas Stars, scoring four goals and 11 assists in 13 games last year. Zucker has been another player rumored to be on the move after a 33-goal move in 2017-18 and a decline to 21 goals last year. However, the team can only hope that Zucker can return to his 30-goal ways. Regardless, even with a new GM in Minnesota, the team might also have a great trade chip if the team wants to move out a contract.

With the exception of a fight that cost him a good chunk of the season, Dumba has established himself as a first-line defenseman, scoring 12 goals and 22 points in just 32 games after a 50-point season the previous year. Finally healthy, Dumba should step up and be one of the team’s top players on the blueline and could be a bargain over the next few years if he continues to develop his game.

Buyouts

F Tyler Ennis ($1.22MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Kevin Fiala

The key to Fenton’s tenure will be how Fiala fares. The team unloaded Mikael Granlund in an attempt to bring Fiala in, a young and talented winger. The 23-year-old posted 23 goals and 48 points in 2017-18, but struggled out of the gate in Nashville, posting just 10 goals and 32 points before the trade. In Minnesota, he scored three goals and seven points in 19 games and will have to prove that he was worth the trade. Of course, the Wild must find a way to sign him and might be forced to use a bridge deal to bring him in.

Best Value: Dumba
Worst Value: Parise

Looking Ahead

The Wild are not necessarily expected to make a big impact on the Central Division considering the division is loaded with top teams and might be the most challenging one in the league. However, the team has a number of young players who could take that next step this year and the team will need that if they want to compete in the Central. Of course, the Wild must also avoid injuries, which have ravaged the franchise for the last few years. Their high-priced veterans must stay healthy and continue to contribute at a high level for the next few years or Minnesota will be in even bigger trouble.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Alex Stalock| Brad Hunt| Devan Dubnyk| Eric Staal| Greg Pateryn| J.T. Brown| Jared Spurgeon| Jason Zucker| Joel Eriksson Ek| Jonas Brodin| Jordan Greenway| Kevin Fiala| Luke Kunin| Marcus Foligno| Mats Zuccarello| Mikael Granlund| Mikko Koivu| Minnesota Wild| Nico Sturm| Salary Cap Deep Dive| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2019

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

August 31, 2019 at 6:29 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $82,864,294 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Ilya Samsonov (two years, $925K)
F Jonas Siegenthaler (one year, $714K)

Potential Bonuses

Samsonov: $550K
Siegenthaler: $83K

The one failing of the Washington Capitals and their dominance of their run over the years has been their inability, lately, to develop young talent that can step in. Again there are few players on entry-level contracts who can help ease the Capitals’ salary cap. However, the team believes that they might be close to bringing in their top prospect in Samsonov. The talented Russian goaltender finally arrived in North America last season and had mixed results in his first year in the AHL. However, Samsonov is likely to get a long look in training camp this season and even if he doesn’t make the team, he’s due to make his NHL debut at some point this season. After all, the Capitals must figure out quickly whether they have their future No. 1 netminder.

Siegenthaler finally looks ready to step into a permanent role on the Capitals’ blueline. The 22-year-old showed promise last year in 26 regular season games and even saw some playoff action with four games last season. The defensive defenseman is a perfect addition to a defense that is still dealing with injuries.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicklas Backstrom ($6.7MM, UFA)
G Braden Holtby ($6.1MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($2.35MM, UFA)
D Christian Djoos ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Travis Boyd ($800K, RFA)
F Brendan Leipsic ($700K, RFA)

Washington will have a big decision to make next offseason as they have two of their core pieces who will become unrestricted free agents and with serious cap issue for several years coming, the team will almost assuredly have to make a tough decision and are likely to lose at least one of them for nothing next summer. Neither is likely to be traded considering the team is strong enough to compete for a Stanley Cup, but the team just can’t afford both. The most likely scenario is the team finds a way to retain Backstrom, but will be forced to let Holtby go, considering that top goaltenders have been cashing in and the Capitals likely won’t have the money to keep him around. Of course much could change, but considering that Washington does have a top goaltending prospect who is almost ready for the NHL, losing Holtby might be an easier blow to take than losing Backstrom.

The remaining group will have to prove their worth. The most interesting player could be Gudas, who is considered a likeable locker room guy, but the Capitals will have to wait and see how well the veteran blueliner fits in with their defense and what the cost of retaining him in the future will be.

Two Years Remaining

F Alex Ovechkin ($9.54MM, UFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($3.35MM, RFA)

While it’s hard to imagine a Capitals team without their star in Ovechkin seems highly unlikely, Washington will have to see whether they can convince their star to re-sign. He’ll be 36 years old by the time he signs his next contract, which means he has quite a few options and while re-signing with Washington is the most likely possibility, the veteran has a number of options which could include returning to Russia to finish his career. Signing with Washington also could hinge on how the Capitals will look in two years. If the team looks like an aging team that has little real chance at winning a title, Ovechkin could also look elsewhere in the NHL for a last chance for a Stanley Cup. The Athletic’s Jesse Granger suggested a while back that Ovechkin might be a good fit with Vegas in a couple of years, suggesting that his relationship with George McPhee could be enough to bring him over there.

The team needs Vrana to continue his development. A player who struggled and was a big question mark at this time a season ago, Vrana answered a lot of questions last year with a 24-goal, 47-point season. If he can continue that success and be a consistent top-six player, the team will likely have hand him a long-term deal in two years.

Three Years Remaining

D Michal Kempny ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Pheonix Copley ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($750K, UFA)

The team lacks many major contracts here, but if Kempny continues to prove to be a solid defensive presence on Washington’s blueline, the team may have to hand out a significant contract. While the defender will be out for the start of the season and remains an unknown after a season-ending hamstring injury, he has proven to be quite reliable since the Capitals acquired him back at the trade deadline in 2018. Copley, who posted solid numbers as a full-time back-up goalie, likely will hold down his job, but will be challenged by Samsonov, who the team hopes will be their goalie of the future.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D John Carlson ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM through 2024-25)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM through 2024-25)
F Tom Wilson ($5.17MM through 2023-24)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM through 2022-23)
F Lars Eller ($3.5MM through 2022-23)
F Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
F Richard Panik ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
D Nick Jensen ($2.5MM through 2022-23)
F Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM through 2022-23)

The bulk of the team’s contracts are here with plenty of money being dedicated to the team between the next four to seven years. Many of these players will likely not be worth the money they are paying for them by that time and much will depend on whether Washington can supplement the team with young, cheap talent. However, the core of the team comes down to Carlson, Kuznetsov, Oshie and Wilson, all of which are currently key to the team’s status as threats to capture another Stanley Cup in the next few years. Carlson, who hits 30 at midseason, put up another phenomenal numbers last year, scoring 13 goals and a career-high 70 points. Kuznetsov had a slight down year, but could be a candidate for a big bounce-back season. Oshie continues to put up solid numbers, 25 goals last season, but will turn 33 during the season and will be 39 before his contract expires, which could go bad quickly. Wilson’s contract doesn’t look nearly as bad, especially after posting career highs in goals (22) and points (40).

Orlov saw his goal-scoring numbers drop, but he still has been a key figure on the team’s defense. Although he saw his ATOI drop by a minute in a half, the team still believes that Orlov is a top-pairing defender. The team hopes that Jensen might provide the same value at a much cheaper price. Jensen, acquired from Detroit and immediately extended for four years, gives Washington even more depth on the team’s blueline. He only averaged 17 minutes in his 20 games with Washington, but he could return to the 20 minutes he was averaging when he was with the Red Wings.

Washington has started to put more effort into bringing in cheaper players, who they think can contribute to the team long-term such as Hagelin and Panik, who were both locked up as the team believes both can contribute as middle-six players for a number of years.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Wilson
Worst Value: Oshie

Looking Ahead

The Capitals are a team that have made it clear years ago that they were going for it. They succeeded finally, winning a Stanley Cup after the 2017-18 season. However, they looked just as formidable last year, despite a first-round exit in a grueling seven-game series against the Carolina Hurricanes. However, expectations continue to be high that this veteran laden club can continue to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. With a number of their players already in their 30’s, the question will end up being how long can they keep this up? The team is capped out and will be for years to come, so they could lose quite a bit of talent over the next few years and with one of the weakest group of prospects in the league, the team will have to be quite clever with the cap to keep the team relevant.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Alex Ovechkin| Braden Holtby| Brendan Leipsic| Carl Hagelin| Chandler Stephenson| Christian Djoos| Evgeny Kuznetsov| Ilya Samsonov| Jakub Vrana| John Carlson| Jonas Siegenthaler| Lars Eller| Michal Kempny| Nic Dowd| Nick Jensen| Nicklas Backstrom| Pheonix Copley| Salary Cap| Salary Cap Deep Dive| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2019| Washington Capitals

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

August 18, 2019 at 2:31 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $79,004,791 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Andrei Svechnikov (two years, $925K)
F Martin Necas (three years, $863K)
D Jake Bean (two years, $863K)
F Warren Foegele (one year, $747K)

Potential Bonuses:

Svechnikov: $2.65MM
Necas: $538K
Bean: $500K
Foegele: $20K

With a system full of top prospects, the Hurricanes got an impressive rookie season from Svechnikov, drafted with the second-overall pick in 2018, last season and now will have a top-six option for another two years at an entry-level cost. At 18 years old, he tallied 20 goals and 37 points and should be in line for more playing time and bigger numbers this season as a 19-year-old and could eventually become the franchise winger the team needs long-term. The Hurricanes also have high hopes for Necas to step in and take big role next season at the center position. The 2017 first-rounder had an impressive season for the Calder Cup Champion Charlotte Checkers of the AHL and could provide Carolina with some cheap talent.

Bean, the team’s first-rounder in 2016, has only made two appearances for Carolina, but could get a chance to take a much bigger role after a strong season with Charlotte, which saw his skills take that next step. The 23-year-old Foegele began to show off his offensive skill over the course of the season in Carolina. He scored 10 goals and 15 points during the regular season, but was even more impressive in the playoffs with five goals and nine points in just 15 games. If he can take his game up a notch, the Hurricanes could have an even more impressive offense next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Justin Faulk ($4.83MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($2.3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($874K, RFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($850K, RFA)
F Brian Gibbons ($725K, UFA)
F Clark Bishop ($700K, RFA)
F Lucas Wallmark ($675K, RFA)

There were rumors that suggested that talks between Carolina and Faulk were no where close on a potential extension and others that said negotiations were promising, however, Faulk could be a legitimate trade candidate if the team can’t eventually work out an extension. The 27-year-old Faulk had a solid season both defensively as he was finally in the positive on his plus/minus for the first time in his career, while also adding 11 goals and 35 points. However, with a number of young defensemen who are waiting for a chance to get an opportunity in Carolina, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Carolina unload him at the trade deadline.

Haula is an interesting acquisition. The 28-year-old was coming off a 29-goal season in Vegas’ inaugural season, but then suffered a gruesome knee injury and never returned. In the end, he played just 15 games, although he was close to returning late in the season with many believing that he would have been available had the Golden Knights had gotten deeper into the playoffs. If he can prove to be healthy, Haula might prove to be one of the best acquisitions of the year. Whether the Hurricanes will re-sign him will obviously depend on how he fares next season.

The team might be ready to move on from van Riemsdyk, who has served as a bottom pairing defenseman, but probably makes too much at $2.3MM to keep around long term, especially since Fleury hasn’t really had a true chance to prove himself and could be a better option at his price.

Two Years Remaining

D Dougie Hamilton ($5.75MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($3.38MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.13MM, UFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($2MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($738K, RFA)

The team has a number of interesting contracts with two years left, including their entire goaltending situation. The team has Mrazek, who put together a stellar season after years of inconsistency, and new backup Reimer as the new tandem with their top prospect in Nedeljkovic close to ready to step into the lineup. All three will likely stay this season as Nedeljkovic is waiver exempt and likely will just stay in the AHL. However, if he can prove in training camp that he’s ready for the back-up role, few would be surprised if the team found a way to unload Reimer, who had a terrible season last year in Florida.

Despite hearing constant rumors that Carolina was shopping Hamilton around this offseason, it looks like the Hurricanes will have the veteran defenseman for another season. He put up solid numbers, scoring 18 goals an 39 points and is solid defensively, but he could eventually be a trade candidate, perhaps as early as the trade deadline if the team struggles and can’t reproduce the same success it had a season ago. The team also hopes that they can get Dzingel to provide the same type of offense he was producing in Ottawa, rather than his struggles in Columbus. However, he should provide solid value at his pricetag and fit in nicely as a middle-six option.

Three Years Remaining

F Nino Niederreiter ($5.25MM, UFA)

It might have been the trade of the year when the Hurricanes acquired Niederreiter from Minnesota for Victor Rask. While Rask struggled in Minnesota, Niederreiter’s season took off when he arrived, scoring 14 goals and 30 points in 36 games and he slotted in nicely on the first line. If he can produce anything close to that, the team has a steal of a deal for the next three years. If his production drops back to what it was in Minnesota earlier in the year (nine goals and 23 points in 46 games) then the team has a contract that could be a burden for some time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sebastian Aho ($8.45MM through 2023-24)
F Jordan Staal ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4MM through 2023-24)
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM through 2024-25)
D Brett Pesce ($4.03MM through 2023-24)

The Montreal Canadiens did Carolina a favor when they shocked the NHL by signing Aho to an offer sheet that didn’t look difficult to match. While five years likely isn’t ideal, the Hurricanes still now have their top franchise player signed until 2024 and can figure out its plans after that, but now are one of the few teams that have locked up their franchise restricted free agent already, with the rest still waiting to sign a contract. That should provide Aho, who had another breakout season with 30 goals and 83 points, with plenty of time to be ready for training camp and see if he can take his game to another level once again.

His linemate in Teravainen is another key piece of Carolina’s future who keeps producing better and better numbers. The 24-year-old produced 21 goals and a career-high 76 points and is locked up for another five years as well, giving Aho a solid winger to work with. The team, however, may not be as thrilled with the four years it still has in Staal, who produced one of his worst seasons although injuries did play apart. The 30-year-old still has four years at $6MM from a 10-year, $60MM deal he signed back in 2012. After posting just 11 goals and 28 points in 50 games, the team hopes he can bounce back.

One thing the Hurricanes did was locking up its young defenders. The team has seen Slavin develop into a top-line defenseman in the last year and to have him locked up at just $5.3MM for six more years will likely be one of the team’s biggest bargain for a long time. He has been averaging more than 22 minutes per game for three of his four seasons in the league. Pesce has also seen his game increase and is also a steal with the rising cost of young defensemen lately. Pesce saw his minutes break 20 minutes for a second straight season, while his offense increased by 10 points.

Buyouts

F Patrick Marleau ($6.25MM in 2019-20)
F Alexander Semin ($2.33MM through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Justin Williams (UFA)
F Saku Maenalanen (RFA)
D Roland McKeown (RFA)

One question that is still up for grabs is whether Williams will return to the team. The 37-year-old winger has been told he can take as much time as he wants to determine whether he wants to return to hockey. He’s made it clear it’s either Carolina or retirement, but after putting up a solid campaign last year of 23 goals and 53 points, it’s hard to believe that the veteran leader is ready to hang it up if he still is capable of producing as a top-six forward. While he may eventually have to slide down to the third line, the veteran was critical to the team’s deep playoff run and Carolina hopes he will come back.

While McKeown might have a hard time finding playing time in Carolina’s stacked defense, the team will need to get Maenalanen signed at some point. The 6-foot-4 bottom-six winger stepped into the lineup late in the season and was a solid contributor, posting four goals and eight points in 34 games, while skating for just 9:26 of ATOI. He provided some physical play and if he can steal a spot on the fourth line, could be valuable.

Best Value: Slavin
Worst Value: Staal

Looking Ahead

The Carolina Hurricanes have done an impressive job of drafting well, developing their talent and adding veteran talent at reasonable prices. With most of their core already locked up long-term and plenty of talent still on entry-level contracts, the Hurricanes should be able to keep their team competitive for years and keep getting better as the team continues to develop.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AHL| Alex Nedeljkovic| Andrei Svechnikov| Brett Pesce| Brian Gibbons| Brock McGinn| Carolina Hurricanes| Clark Bishop| Dougie Hamilton| Erik Haula| Gustav Forsling| Haydn Fleury| Injury| Jaccob Slavin| James Reimer| Jordan Martinook| Jordan Staal| Justin Faulk| Justin Williams| Lucas Wallmark| Martin Necas| Montreal Canadiens| NHL| Nino Niederreiter| Patrick Marleau| Petr Mrazek| Players| Prospects| Retirement| RFA| Salary Cap| Salary Cap Deep Dive| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2019| Transactions| Vegas Golden Knights

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

August 17, 2019 at 6:32 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 7 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $80,474,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Zach Whitecloud (one year, $925K)
F Cody Glass (three years, $863K)
D Nicolas Hague (three years, $791K)

Potential Bonuses:

Whitecloud: $850K
Glass: $850K
Hague: $133K

While there is no guarantee that any of these three will be on the roster when the season begins, all three are expected to see time with the Golden Knights this season and could find themselves with significant roles depending on how things shake out. Glass, the team’s biggest prospect, is finally turning pro and while the organization has said in the past that Glass needs a full year of AHL work, he may have proved himself after his junior season ended last year. The sixth-overall pick from the 2017 draft, tallied five points in six AHL regualar season games, but was also one of the team’s top players throughout the AHL playoffs as he helped lead the team to the Calder Cup Finals. He tallied seven goals and 15 points in 22 playoff games. That play suggests that he might be ready and will compete for an immediate chance on the team’s third line.

Hague and Whitecloud are expected to challenge for a spot on one of the open spots in Vegas’ defense. Both players had impressive seasons with the Chicago Wolves last season and might be ready to make an impact. The 20-year-old Hague scored 13 goals in his rookie campaign, while the defensive Whitecloud showed off some offensive potential in his first full season in the AHL.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Cody Eakin ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($2.78MM, UFA)
D Nick Holden ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.38MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1MM, UFA)
G Malcolm Subban ($850K, RFA)
G Garret Sparks ($750K, RFA)
F Curtis McKenzie ($750K, UFA)
F William Carrier ($725K, RFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($700K, UFA)
F Valentin Zykov ($675K, RFA)

With their cap room extremely tight, there remains a legitimate possibility that the team may still make a trade and if that does happen, the player is likely to come from this list of players. Eakin, Reaves and Holden are not likely to return in a year and could be trade bait. Eakin is coming off a career-best season with 22 goals and 41 points, but assuming the team is healthier this year, will likely settle into a third-line center role this year unless Glass beats him out. However, with Eakin’s value at its highest, the team might be able to get the best return if they move him and his $3.85MM contract.

Reaves has become a fan favorite in Vegas, giving the team highlight reel hits and become a popular locker room presence. He also posted 305 hits for the Golden Knights. However, Reaves makes quite a bit of money for a player who produced nine goals and 20 points last season. With some young fourth-line players closing in on potentially replacing him, the team could find a taker in Reaves and his $2.78MM deal.

The team has been impressed with the development with Merrill, who was initially only looked at as an emergency defenseman, but really took that next step last season and has earned himself a full-time role with the possibility of even earning top-four minutes next season. Holden would be another option for the team free up cap room as the team signed him last summer to a two-year deal, but the veteran struggled to get consistent playing time and is on the outside looking in. The team might hope it can send Holden to a defense-needy team, but may be forced to bury him in the AHL if he can’t prove he belongs on the Golden Knights roster and with Engelland likely taking a lesser role at the bottom of the defense next season, it might be hard to win a spot.

The Golden Knights also have an interesting battle in net for the backup goalie spot after acquiring Sparks during the offseason from Toronto. While Subban is the likely candidate to keep the position, Sparks could provide some much needed depth in goal for the future if the Golden Knights managed to hold onto him. Sparks was a top prospect goaltender just a season ago, but struggled in his first full season in Toronto. However, the Golden Knights hope he can bounce back quickly.

Two Years Remaining

F Paul Stastny ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Brandon Pirri ($775K, UFA)

The team has been set up to provide a number of short-term deals at higher cost and Stastny is one of those who signed a three-year deal at a high AAV. Injuries limited the veteran to just 50 games last season, but when he played, he provided excellent playmaking on the team’s second line, scoring 13 goals and 42 points. If the 33-year-old can stay healthy this season, he could center one of the strongest lines in the league as he is one of the best playmakers who historically makes his line mates even better.

Pirri is an interesting addition. The 28-year-old showed off his scoring touch after being called up midway through the season. In just 31 games, he tallied 12 goals and 18 points, including a string of goals. Most expected the UFA to find a team that could offer him more playing time this summer. Instead he opted to remain and may get that playing time after the team decided to move KHL star Nikita Gusev to New Jersey this summer. Gusev had been penciled into the third line which now could fall to Pirri, who the team hopes can continue his scoring ways.

Three Years Remaining

G Marc-Andre Fleury ($7MM, UFA)
F Reilly Smith ($5MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($2.5MM, UFA)

While Fleury has been a stud since arriving from Pittsburgh in the expansion draft, the veteran goaltender is now 34 years old and has three years remaining on his deal. The Golden Knights have to hope that Fleury can continue playing at a high level for that time as they do not have a suitable replacement in the system at all yet and could find themselves in trouble in a few years if they can’t find a suitable player to step in and help take the burden from the netminder. With little faith early in the season in Subban, Fleury played in 61 regular-season games last season, his highest total since 2014-15. Subban did improve somewhat and played better in the second half, but it’s likely that Fleury will take on another significant load this season as well.

While 53 points may not be the type of numbers the team was hoping for from Smith, the Golden Knights know that Smith has proven to be a valuable commodity who is a key on the team’s penalty kill and is an excellent playmaker, especially when playing with the top line. McNabb has also been a key player under a cap-friendly deal who is playing solid minutes in the top-four, while providing excellent defense along with 200 hits last year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Mark Stone ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
F Max Pacioretty ($7MM through 2022-23)
D Nate Schmidt ($5.95MM through 2025-26)
F William Karlsson ($5.9MM through 2026-27)
D Shea Theodore ($5.2MM through 2025-26)
F Jon Marchessault ($5MM through 2023-24)
F Alex Tuch ($4.75MM through 2025-26)

It’s hard to believe, but after just two years, the team has its core in tact and locked up for a long time and should be Stanley Cup contenders for the next few years. Stone’s value has only increased in the last year as he completed the team’s quest to have two dominant lines. While the Golden Knights could alter their lines this season, Stone is expected to be a big piece and eventually the face of the franchise in Vegas after being acquired from Ottawa at the trade deadline and then signing a eight-year extension immediately after the trade and at $9.5MM, he may prove a bargain as the 28-year-old posted 33 goals and 73 points during the regular season, but really took off in the playoffs, putting up six goals and 12 points in seven playoff games.

While all the long-term deals look solid, if there is one to scrutinize even closer, it’s the four-year extension that Vegas signed Pacioretty to a year ago. That extension is kicking in this year, but the 30-year-old didn’t bounce back to his 30-goal ways that he had in Montreal in previous seasons. Pacioretty, who scored 30 goals five times in six straight years in Montreal, scored just 22 goals and 40 points in his first year in Vegas, but the team hopes they can get more out of him this year. He did show off more offense in the playoffs as well as he tallied five goals and 11 points in seven games.

The Golden Knights finally locked up Karlsson to a long-term deal, something both sides were hoping for and getting the forward to sign for under $6MM is impressive for the franchise. While the 24-year-old Karlsson saw his goal totals drop from 43 to 24 last season, a drop off was expected and the team believes that with two impressive lines, Karlsson should get more chances to score with less pressure from just top-line defenders.

Schmidt and Theodore should continue to develop and provide top-four defense for many years to come. Theodore in particular is only 24 years old and could break out and develop into a dominant defenseman in the next few years. Tuch took a solid step in his development, scoring 20 goals and 52 points in his second year and if the 23-year-old keeps improving, could be quite the bargain under $5MM in the future.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

F Tomas Tatar ($500K through 2020-21)

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

D Jimmy Schuldt (RFA)

The team might have to free up just a little extra to finally get Schuldt locked up for a number of years, but the top collegiate free-agent this offseason opted to sign with Vegas and could begin his career immediately. With attention from 29 of the 31 teams, many believe that Schuldt will get every opportunity to win a spot on the Golden Knights’ defense and could make his impact right away. After four years at St. Cloud State, he still will have to prove that he can beat out Whitecloud and Hague, but once the RFA signs, he could end up being a big piece to the team’s defensive outlook.

Best Value: Karlsson
Worst Value: Pacioretty

Looking Ahead

The Golden Knights general manager combo of George McPhee and Brad McCrimmon have done an amazing job of putting a team together quickly that is ready to compete immediately and have a chance to compete for many years. At the moment, the team has done a good job of locking up its core and while the team is right up against the cap, it does have a number of players making quite a bit of money while on short-term deals, which could allow the team to continue to upgrade to the team after those deals expire. Throw in a number of younger players who are getting closer and closer to being able to contribute, the team should be in solid shape for quite a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AHL| Alex Tuch| Brandon Pirri| Brayden McNabb| Cody Eakin| Cody Glass| Curtis McKenzie| Deryk Engelland| Expansion| Garret Sparks| George McPhee| Jimmy Schuldt| Malcolm Subban| Marc-Andre Fleury| Mark Stone| Max Pacioretty| Nate Schmidt| Nick Holden| Paul Stastny| Salary Cap Deep Dive| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2019| Vegas Golden Knights

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

October 7, 2018 at 2:53 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $78,030,832 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Miro Heiskanen (three years, $894K)
D Julius Honka (one year, $863K)
F Roope Hintz (two years, $812K)

Potential Bonuses:

Heiskanen: $2.5MM
Honka: $500K
Hintz: $158K

Total: $3.16MM

The Dallas Stars got a big boost to their defense when they managed to get Heiskanen, the third-overall pick in 2017, to come over to the NHL from Finland. The talented defenseman should be both an offensive and defensive presence for years to come and should be one of the cornerstones of the franchise. The 19-year-old posted 11 goals and 23 points in 30 games in the Liiga last year and has made an immediate impact to the team. And at an entry-level price, should prove to be an even greater impact to the team’s salary cap.

Honka, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, has shown glimpses of being a dominant defenseman as well, but despite his offensive talents, his lack of defense has kept him out of the lineup and has caused him to doubt himself as he is dealing with confidence issues. There was a belief that with new head coach Jim Montgomery around, Honka was starting to develop into that top-four defenseman that the team was hoping for, but he has already been scratched twice, suggesting he’s still not there yet.

A team that lacks offensive depth should be thrilled that Hintz has made the roster. The 21-year-0ld is a 2015 second-round pick and is coming off a 20-goal campaign in his first season of the AHL and could provide some offense from the wing position.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Jason Spezza ($7.5MM, UFA)
D Marc Methot ($4.9MM, UFA)
F Mattias Janmark ($2.3MM, RFA)
D Esa Lindell ($2.2MM, RFA)
F Brett Ritchie ($1.75MM, RFA)
D Roman Polak ($1.3MM, UFA)
D Connor Carrick ($1.3MM, RFA)
F Jason Dickinson ($875K, RFA)
F Gemel Smith ($720K, RFA)

This could be the last season for Spezza, and if not, it will be at a much lower AAV. Spezza is coming off one of the worst seasons in his career when he tallied just eight goals and 26 points last season as the 35-year-old struggled. While more determined to put up better numbers this year, the team likely will have to find top-six offense from someone else down the road. Methot is no different as his almost $5MM in salary could be better used elsewhere with the team’s defensive depth, although like Spezza, they could bring him back on a cheaper deal. The defensive specialist struggled with injuries last year, appearing in just 36 games.

The team may need a lot of that money for Lindell, who has developed into a solid top-four defender in Dallas. His defense has always been solid, but he has improved on offense, posting a career-high of 27 points and needs to be locked up to a long-term deal. The team also might consider locking up Janmark, who has improved each year since joining the team. The 25-year-old put up 15 goals back in the 2016-17 season and followed that up with an 19-goal season last year, suggesting he could be ready to take that next step this year and become that much-needed offensive weapon on their second line.

Two Years Remaining

F Martin Hanzal ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Valeri Nichushkin ($2.95MM, RFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Devin Shore ($2.3MM, RFA)
F Radek Faksa ($2.2MM, RFA)
F Tyler Pitlick ($1MM, UFA)

The team still has two years of Hanzal remaining, who signed a three-year deal last offseason, but has struggled with back issues. The 31-year-old appeared in just 38 games last season, posting five goals and 10 points and remains injured at the moment. While he has been skating, there remains no timetable for a return. However, if Dallas can get him back healthy at some point this year, he could provide the Stars with some secondary scoring. Although he’s never been a 20-goal scorer, Hanzal adds a physical presence to the team.

Nichushkin is another player who the team has high hopes for after he agreed to return to the NHL after a two year stint in the KHL. The 2013 first-rounder put up just pedestrian numbers in his two years with CSKA Moscow, but the team believes he should fare well on their second line this season and should produce some offense. Khudobin is another important addition to the team as the team fell apart after the team’s starter went down late in the season at a critical moment. Without a solid backup (Kari Lehtonen), the team struggled and failed to reach the playoffs. Khodobin adds that much needed solid netminder who can fill in for Bishop, who has a history of injury issues.

The team also needs offense from Shore and Faksa. Both have shown the ability to produce, at times, on the bottom-six lines, but both have the potential to take their games up a notch if they can find the right chemistry. Shore has scored just 24 goals in two seasons combined, while Faksa, a defensive center, scored a promising 17 goals last year.

Three Years Remaining

F Blake Comeau ($2.4MM, UFA)
D Stephen Johns ($2.34MM, UFA)

The team has little to worry about in three years as it has just the veteran Comeau locked up and Johns. Comeau was brought on board to add a gritty, veteran presence to the team, while the 6-foot-4 Johns put up solid defensive numbers for the Stars and even provided eight goals.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM through 2024-25)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM through 2021-22)
F Tyler Seguin ($5.75MM in 2018; $9.85MM through 2026-27)
G Ben Bishop ($4.92MM through 2022-23)
D John Klingberg ($4.25MM through 2021-22)

The team has several of their cornerstone players already locked up, the most significant came this summer when Seguin agreed to an eight-year extension to stay in Dallas long-term. Until he did so, there was plenty of speculation the team might have to move on from him, but with their franchise player locked in, the team can now focus on building the team around him rather than looking for a new franchise player. The 26-year-old posted a career-high 40 goals last year, but many feel that he is ready for a breakout season and might be able break out and take his game to the next level.

Benn is another player who the team counts on quite a bit on that fearsome first line. The 29-year-old is still a major offensive force who posted 36 goals and 79 points last season, bouncing back from a lesser 26-goal season in 2016-17. He continues to be a consistent scoring threat as he has never (strike shortened season excluded) scored less than 22 goals in his entire career. Radulov adds that third element for Seguin and Benn. The 32-year-old winger signed away from Montreal last summer was a perfect linemate on that first line as he tallied 27 goals of his own.

Bishop put up decent numbers last year as he played in 53 games for the Stars and put up a 2.53 GAA with a solid .916 save percentage. However, injuries knocked him out at a critical time and the team needs him to be healthy for a sustained playoff run. Klingberg had a great season for the Stars, despite seeing his goals scored drop to career-low eight. However, his career-high 59 assists suggested that he’s moving to the upper echelon of defenseman in the league and he even garnered some Norris Trophy consideration.

Buyouts

G Antti Niemi ($1.5MM in 2018-19)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Klingberg
Worst Value: Hanzal

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The key to the Stars plan was getting Seguin to sign on the dotted line and despite some early offseason concerns that it might not happen, the two sides were finally able to come to an agreement before training camp started. That allows the team and general manager Jim Nill to continue working towards adding pieces around a core of Seguin, Benn, Klingberg and Heiskanen by adding much-needed depth. The team looks to be in good shape for the extended future. Now they just have to win some games.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Alexander Radulov| Anton Khudobin| Antti Niemi| Ben Bishop| Blake Comeau| Brett Ritchie| Connor Carrick| Dallas Stars| Devin Shore| Esa Lindell| Gemel Smith| Jamie Benn| Jason Dickinson| Jason Spezza| Jim Montgomery| John Klingberg| Julius Honka| Kari Lehtonen| Marc Methot| Martin Hanzal| Mattias Janmark| Miro Heiskanen| RFA| Salary Cap| Salary Cap Deep Dive| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2018

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

October 6, 2018 at 3:58 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $74,274,122 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Patrik Laine (one year, $925K)
F Kyle Connor (one year, $925K)
F Kristian Vesalainen (three years, $925K)
F Jack Roslovic (two years, $894K)
F Brendan Lemieux (one year, $839K)
D Sami Niku (two years, $775K)

Potential Bonuses:

Laine: $2.65MM
Connor: $850K
Roslovic: $213K
Lemieux: $200K
Niku: $183K

Total: $4.1MM

The Jets were hit hard when many of their entry-level deals expired a year ago and next year won’t be too much different as the team, which is now starting to feel the strain of the salary cap, will have to find a way to hand over a lot of money to Laine, who could receive a long-term deal at an extremely high price. Of course, the 20-year-old is worth that money. The winger scored 36 goals in his rookie campaign and topped that with a 44-goal season last year. If he can reach numbers even close to that, he could be one of the highest players in the league in a year.

Connor should also cost the team a good deal of money as the 21-year-old winger posted 31 goals in his first full NHL season last year and looks to be heading in a similar direction and could also get himself a contract in the $5MM+ range in one season. The team gets another year for Roslovic, who is currently playing in the bottom-six, but don’t be surprised if the 21-year-old center might eventually move into the top-six at some point in the season.

It’s still too early to know where Vesalainen stands, but the highly-touted prospect will get time immediately in a bottom-six role and develop his skills. With three years on his entry-level deal, the team hopes it can get some cheap scoring options from him for a few years.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Jacob Trouba ($5.5MM, RFA)
D Tyler Myers ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Ben Chiarot ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Andrew Copp ($1MM, RFA)
D Joseph Morrow ($1MM, RFA)
F Nic Petan ($874K, RFA)
F Marko Dano ($800K, RFA)
G Laurent Brossoit ($650K, RFA)

While the team is deep in forwards, their defense has many long-term questions surrounding them. Two of those players have contracts that will expire at the end of the season. Trouba is the most interesting. Despite holding out several years ago and showing little interest in Winnipeg, it looked like things were improving after Winnipeg enjoyed an impressive season last year that took them to the Western Conference Finals. However, another difficult negotiations that failed to bring in a long-term deal and the team may be forced to move on from Trouba sooner than later. He can be an unrestricted free agent after the 2019-20 season.

Myers is also a candidate for the team to move on from as the veteran is on the final year of a seven-year, $38.5MM deal. While Myers is still a very productive player, the long term deals the team has already signed off on as well as potential deals with Laine and Connor could make him a cap casualty as well. The team has Niku, among others, sitting in the AHL waiting for a spot to open and some could open up at the end of the year.

Two Years Remaining

D Dmitry Kulikov ($4.33MM, UFA)
D Josh Morrissey ($3.15MM, RFA)

The team made a couple of free agent signings last offseason, including bringing in goalie Steve Mason and signing Kulikov. Mason has already been traded away after a disappointing season, while Kulikov has had trouble fitting in as well, even being held out of several playoff games last year. The 27-year-old is barely holding onto his spot as a third-line defender and could find himself fighting for time eventually if he can’t improve his game.

Morrissey is a different story. The partner to Trouba has been a solid defender and has continued to improve his game and will still be a restricted free agent in a few years, giving the team another opportunity to lock him up long-term.

Three Years Remaining

D Dustin Byfuglien ($7.6MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Perreault ($4.13MM, UFA)
F Adam Lowry ($2.92MM, UFA)

Byfuglien is locked up long-term and in many ways is the face of the franchise, who produces both physicality and offense for the team. The 6-foot-5, 260-pound blueliner did just provide eight goals last year, one of the lowest totals of his career, but the 33-year-old still managed to produce 45 points. The team needs the veteran to continue his dominant play for a few years more if the team intends to continue a long-term Western Conference run.

The team also needs Perreault to continue playing solid hockey as one of their best bottom-six forwards. The 30-year-old posted 17 goals last year, one goal shy of his career-high. The 25-year-old Lowry is another player who the team needs to step up for the franchise. He posted 15 goals in 2016-17, but managed to score just eight goals last year in 45 games. However, his passing game showed quite a bit of improvement.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.19MM through 2023-24)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.13MM through 2023-24)
F Nikolaj Ehlers ($6MM through 2024-25)
F Blake Wheeler ($5.6MM in 2018-19; $8.25MM through 2023-24)
F Bryan Little ($5.29MM through 2023-24)

The franchise has quite a few blue-chip players already locked up long-term with the most important position, goaltending, looking to be in good shape after the team signed Hellebuyck to a six-year, $37MM deal. The 25-year-old posted an impressive breakout season that saw him post a 2.37 GAA and a .924 save percentage and should be a major positive for the team over the next six years.

The team signed Wheeler, their captain, to a long-term extension this offseason. He will finish out his previous deal at $5.6MM, but will start on a four-year extension at $8.25MM. Wheeler posted 20 goals for the fifth-straight season, but also saw his points total surge as the 32-year-old put up a career-high 91 points last year, way better than his previous career-high of 78 points.

Ehlers signed a seven-year extension at this time last season and the 22-year-old posted a career-high 29 goals last season playing on the other side of Laine and producing one of the team’s most dangerous lines. The team also has Little working as a second-line center, although many believe that he’d be better off with a bottom-six role down the road, which would make him an expensive long-term cost at $5.29MM.

Buyouts

F Mark Stuart ($583K in 2018-19)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Scheifele
Worst Value: Kulikov

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The Winnipeg Jets have done an incredible job so far drafting and developing high-end talent and so far have done an excellent job keeping them in the fold for what the team hopes to be a solid five year run for a Stanley Cup. The team has already locked up many of their top players and while they still have a few more to go, they look well on their way to doing that. The only real question is how general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff handles his defense as he has a pair of major decisions to make within the next year when it comes to dealing with Trouba and Myers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Adam Lowry| Andrew Copp| Ben Chiarot| Blake Wheeler| Brandon Tanev| Brendan Lemieux| Bryan Little| Connor Hellebuyck| Dmitry Kulikov| Dustin Byfuglien| Jacob Trouba| Josh Morrissey| Kevin Cheveldayoff| Kyle Connor| Laurent Brossoit| Mark Scheifele| Mark Stuart| Marko Dano| Mathieu Perreault| Nic Petan| Nikolaj Ehlers| Patrik Laine| RFA| Salary Cap| Salary Cap Deep Dive| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2018

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