Salary Cap Deep Dive

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

October 1, 2017 at 6:24 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $65,647,000 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Matt Benning (One year remaining, $925K)
F Drake Caggiula (One year remaining, $925K)
F Connor McDavid (One year remaining, $925K)
F Jesse Puljujarvi (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Anton Slepyshev (One year remaining, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (Three years remaining, $925K)
D Darnell Nurse (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

McDavid: $2.85MM
Puljujarvi: $2.5MM
Nurse: $850K
Slepyshev: $600K
Caggiula: $425K
Benning: $300K
Yamamoto: $230K

Total: $7.755MM

Believe it or not, McDavid is still on the list as the Art Ross Trophy winner, Hart Memorial Trophy winner, and Ted Lindsay Award winner is on the last year of his entry-level deal. McDavid will also be listed later in the story under four year and more as McDavid signed his eight year, $100MM extension this summer and will be locked up long term regardless. More on him later …

The Oilers have high expectations for both Benning and Nurse to take that next step. With injuries mounting, both should be vaulted into bigger roles than they were last year. The 23-year-old Benning played in 62 games last year and played solidly while filling in for injured players. The 22-year-old Nurse also had a solid showing in 44 games this year. Both may be asked to jump onto top-four pairings on defense throughout the year.

Slepyshev, who suffered an ankle injury in the offseason looks close to being ready. He had 10 points in 41 games a year ago, but also scored three goals in the playoffs for Edmonton last year and many feel the 23-year-old is ready to take that next step. Caggiula, a big college player from the University of North Dakota, had seven goals and 18 points in 60 games a year ago in his first year with Edmonton and is also thought to be a player ready to make a jump.

Both Yamamoto and Puljujarvi (Edmonton’s 2017 and 2016 first-round picks, respectively) went head-to-head and battled it out for a final roster spot this training camp with Yamamoto getting the edge and Puljujarvi getting sent to Bakersfield, but don’t be surprised if Puljujarvi is back up at some point during the season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Mark Fayne ($2.6MM, UFA – team saved $1.025MM in cap relief by sending him to AHL)
F Ryan Strome ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Mark Letestu ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Patrick Maroon ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Jussi Jokinen ($1.1MM, UFA)
G Laurent Brossoit ($750K, RFA)
F Iiro Pakarinen ($725K, RFA)

Perhaps the most interesting player the team must focus on will be Maroon, who had a breakout year playing next to McDavid. The 29-year-old wing scored 27 goals and has proven to be one guy who seems to play well next to McDavid. He is a presence in front of the net and a physical force for the team.

Letestu, is another player the team will have to consider. Likely to be the team’s fourth-line center, Letestu put up 16 goals last year, although that was a career high and he’s already 32 years old. Jokinen, who signed a one-year deal this offseason, put up 11 goals last year in Florida, but at 34 years old is likely not a priority to the team.

As for restricted free agents, the team will take a long look at Strome, who the team acquired in the Jordan Eberle deal. The 24-year-old center has had an inconsistent career with the New York Islanders, but put up 13 goals and 30 points last year. The Oilers hope he can keep improving on those numbers. Brossoit will get his first chance to be Talbot’s backup. The 24-year-old looked promising in eight appearances last year.

Two Years Remaining

G Cam Talbot ($4.17MM, UFA)
D Eric Gryba ($900K, UFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($675K, RFA)

Obviously, the key is to lock up Talbot, who has proven to be a solid goaltender. The team has been thrilled with his performance over the last two years since he’s become a full-time starter. He played in an absurd 73 games last year and finished with a 2.39 GAA and a .919 save percentage. Assuming, his play doesn’t drop off, he could receive a big payday, even at 32. Gryba, a bottom-line veteran defenseman, and Khaira, a 23-year-old draft pick from 2012, just fill out the roster.

Three Years Remaining

F Zack Kassian ($1.95MM, UFA)

The fourth-line bruiser scored seven goals and added 17 assists, 201 hits and 101 penalty minutes in a full season last year and should continue aiding the team. The 26-year-old adds a physical presence at 6-foot-3, 209 pounds, which the team desperately needs and is critical to the team’s bottom line.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)*
F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM through 2024-25)
F Milan Lucic ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6MM through 2020-21)
D Andrej Sekera ($5.5MM through 2020-21)
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM through 2022-23)
D Adam Larsson ($4.17MM through 2020-21)
D Kris Russell ($4MM through 2020-21)
* McDavid’s extension doesn’t kick in until 2018-19.

As said earlier, McDavid signed a eight-year extension this summer, but that $12.5MM AAV won’t kick in until next year and the team will have to deal with that next offseason. However, when you look at this Edmonton team, they have a lot of young talent that is locked up long-term, meaning that Edmonton should be a really good team for many years. Having both McDavid, 20, and Draisaitl, 21, make for two franchise changing players and they have them together for another eight years. McDavid and Draisaitl combined last year for 59 goals and 118 assists and both should only get better.

Lucic is a solid contributor, who put up 23 goals and 50 points and likely to play next to Draisaitl on the team’s second line. Consistency is his game as he has put up solid numbers over the past six or seven years. The 29-year-old’s productivity is essential after the two centers. Nugent-Hopkins, is a different matter. The former first-overall pick in 2014, Nugent Hopkins inked a seven-year, $42MM deal in 2013 when he was just starting to scratch the surface of his career. Instead his offense had stagnated as he’s never scored more than 56 points in a season. Still just 24 years old, his defense is excellent, but for $6MM a year, that’s a lot of money for little offense.

Despite a knee injury that will keep him out for a few months, Sekera is a key component to the team’s blueline efforts. He will be badly missed, but he is expected to anchor that defense for many years. The team has its top-four defense locked up long term as well. Klefbom played a complete 82-game season last year, putting up solid numbers (12 goals) and solidifying himself as one of the team’s top defensemen. Both Larsson and Russell have settled in as the defense’s second line and should be there for some time as well. Larsson, the former fourth-overall pick they acquired in the Taylor Hall deal, is a key defensive defenseman just like the 30-year-old veteran Russell.

Buyouts

F Lauri Korpikoski ($1MM through 2017-18)
F Benoit Pouliot ($1.33MM through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: McDavid
Worst Value: Nugent-Hopkins

Looking Ahead

As said earlier, this team has been very well constructed as the Oilers have made it clear they are building around their youth as they have their top two superstars locked up for eight years together (nine years for McDavid). The defense is locked in for another four years as well and the Oilers have a bright future ahead of them. The team will have to keep an eye on the salary cap once McDavid’s contract kicks in, hence why the team traded Eberle this offseason. However, to go with their young stars, the team has a large amount of young forwards who could also step up and carry this team even further. Their depth looks ready to compete at a high level for a long time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Arizona Coyotes

September 27, 2017 at 7:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Arizona Coyotes

Current Cap Hit: $57,514,547 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Jakob Chychrun (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Lawson Crouse (Two years remaining, $894K)
F Max Domi (One year remaining, $863K)
F Christian Dvorak (Two years remaining, $839K)
F Clayton Keller (Three years remaining, $886K)
F Brendan Perlini (Two years remaining, $863K)
F Dylan Strome (Three years remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Chychrun: $425K
Crouse: $708K (AAV over the contract; amounts vary by year)
Domi: $500K
Dvorak: $268K (AAV over the contract; amounts vary by year)
Keller: $788K (AAV over the contract; amounts vary by year)
Perlini: $500K
Strome: $2.475MM

Total: $5.664MM

The Coyotes lead the league by a considerable margin when it comes to players on entry-level contracts which is why they find themselves so far under the Upper Limit. Domi was banged up last season but quietly played at a 50+ point pace once again. Repeating that would give himself a very good chance to skip the bridge contract and sign something long-term.

The other forwards aren’t quite in that spot (at least yet). Crouse was a regular last season but in more of a depth role and if that is the case again this season, he’s a candidate for a bridge deal in 2019. Dvorak had a strong rookie season and if he can build on that, he could conceivably get a long-term deal. Keller and Strome are just starting the first year of their contracts and while Keller projects to make an impact fairly quickly, that may not be the case for Strome. Lastly, Perlini was up and down at times in his rookie campaign. He should play more of a regular role this season but it’s still too early to tell whether or not he’ll be a regular top-six a couple of years from now.

As for Chychrun, he had a very strong rookie season which had him trending towards being a candidate for a long-term second contract. However, knee surgery has set him back somewhat as he’s still a long way away from being ready to play in 2017-18. If he picks up right where he left off, not only will he be likely to get a big second deal but it wouldn’t be surprising if Arizona were to try to extend him a year early. If he has some difficulties though, the early extension will certainly be off the table and it will be his play in 2018-19 that ultimately dictates which way his post-ELC goes.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Adam Clendening ($650K, RFA)
D Kevin Connauton ($1MM, UFA)
G Louis Domingue ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Anthony Duclair ($1.2MM, RFA)
G Antti Raanta ($1MM, UFA)
F Brad Richardson ($2.083MM, UFA)
F Tobias Rieder ($2.25MM, RFA)
D Luke Schenn ($1.25MM, UFA)

Rieder’s contract talks last offseason dragged out and his 2016-17 campaign was a lot like the previous year. If that happens again, he’s going to have a hard time getting a long-term deal. If there was ever a prototypical candidate for a bridge contract, Duclair was it. Two years ago, he was a legitimate top-six forward while last season, he struggled to produce in both the NHL and AHL. A big year from him would go a long way towards getting him some contract security. As for Richardson, he did well in limited action but spent most of the year on injured reserve due to a broken leg. He’s likely to have a minor role this season with the youngsters expected to get most ice time so he will probably have to settle for a lesser contract next summer.

Schenn is a typical depth/third pairing player who is best used in a sheltered role. He had to wait for several weeks last year in free agency to land this contract and there’s a good chance he’ll be holding out hope to simply land one at a similar rate next summer. Connauton battled injuries last season while playing a minimal role when he was in the lineup. A two-way contract at a lesser NHL salary is where he’s heading towards unless he can hold down a regular spot in 2017-18. Similarly, Clendening was mostly a spare part last year and wound up taking the league minimum early in free agency. He landed a one-way deal this time around but if he winds up being in and out again, he also could be a two-way candidate.

Raanta enters this season with a lot to prove. He is getting his first chance to be a legitimate starting goaltender and if he can build on his time with the Rangers and maintain that with a number one workload, he’ll position himself to potentially be the top goaltender on the open market a year from now. With that, a major pay raise and job security would be in order. On the flip side, if he scuffles, he may slot in at a rate more comparable to the top backups which this summer checked in around $2.5MM. Domingue looked like he might be a goalie of the future for Arizona but his first full season as an NHL backup didn’t go well. He isn’t under the microscope as much as Raanta will be but his performance will determine whether he’s still part of their future plans or whether they may be better suited looking elsewhere for a backup.

Two Years Remaining

F Dave Bolland ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Nick Cousins ($1MM, RFA)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Niklas Hjalmarsson ($4.1MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($1.8MM, UFA)

Bolland technically remains on the books (and the Coyotes won’t need to put him on LTIR this year) but isn’t at all in their plans and won’t be back with them or anyone else in all likelihood. Martinook has emerged as a quality third line forward over the past couple of seasons. With several entry-level guys expiring around that same time, it’s possible that one of them takes his place at that time but if not, it’s plausible that he could return with a cap hit in the $2MM range if he continues at this pace. Cousins was brought in this summer and should slot into a bottom-six role. Barring a big uptick in his production, his next contract shouldn’t be too much higher.

While there aren’t really forwards of note in this situation, that certainly can’t be said for the defense. Ekman-Larsson is their undisputed top player and is quietly one of the more prominent blueliners in the league. He will still be in his late 20s when he hits the open market and a max-term contract is certainly a possibility along with a sizable raise from his current $5.5MM. Hjalmarsson was brought in this summer to play with Ekman-Larsson and is a quality top-four option. He’ll be 32 in free agency and it will be his last chance to get a long-term deal but his next deal could be one where the longer the duration, the lower the cap hit will be.

Three Years Remaining

None (aside from Keller and Strome who were covered earlier)

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Jason Demers ($3.938MM through 2020-21)*
D Alex Goligoski ($5.475MM through 2020-21)
F Derek Stepan ($6.5MM through 2020-21)

* – Florida is retaining $563K of Demers’ contract

Stepan was the other part of the big offseason trade with the Rangers and he will slot in as their top line center right away while allowing prospects like Strome to develop without having to be rushed. He hasn’t typically been a high-end point producer but his all-around game is good enough to make him a good fit for a team that’s still loading up now. If for whatever reason it doesn’t work out, they would have no difficulty moving him down the road either.

Demers was acquired earlier this month and gives the Coyotes a quality second pairing player on a pretty reasonable deal with the Panthers footing part of the bill. He’s more of a number four blueliner but that’s the type of money those players are getting on the open market. Goligoski has quietly been a consistently effective point getter over the past several years and that was the case in his first year with Arizona. His playing time may take a dip with Hjalmarsson being added but he’s still a player who can handle top pairing minutes when called upon at a contract that’s below what most top pairing players receive.

Buyouts

F Mike Ribeiro ($1.944MM through 2019-20)
F Antoine Vermette ($1.25MM in 2017-18)

Retained Salary Transactions

G Mike Smith ($1.417MM through 2018-19)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Raanta
Worst Value: Bolland

Looking Ahead

Considering the Coyotes are a low spending team, it sounds funny to have to mention that their cap situation now is way better than last year where they had no space remaining and were well into LTIR. Because of all of their young players on rookie contracts, they have plenty of flexibility for a while yet.

If they are going to want to keep this core together though, their payroll budget is going to have to go up pretty quickly though. Not only will their youngsters need bigger second contracts but they’ll either have to extend or replace Raanta next summer with Ekman-Larsson in particular looking at a big jump the year after that. That said, they should still be under the cap when this all happens so the bigger question moving forward for them won’t be the cap but whether they get the financial flexibility from ownership to make it all happen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

September 24, 2017 at 4:20 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $73,012,499 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Brock Boeser (Two years remaining, $925K)
F Jake Virtanen (One year remaining, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Boeser: $850K
Virtanen: $850K

Boeser is one of the Canucks hope for the future. The team’s 2015 first-round pick has been playing exceptionally well in camp and looks ready to take a major role on the team. After two years at the University of North Dakota, Boeser managed to play in nine games for Vancouver last year, putting up four goals and an assist in that span and averaged 2.78 shots per game as well. Virtanen, on the other hand is just trying to cement a starting role on the team. The sixth overall pick in the 2014 draft, Virtanen has been disappointing and has had trouble finding a role with the club, playing 55 games two years ago and then settling for just 10 games last year. A solid camp so far suggests, he might have turned it around as he looks to take his game to the next level.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Daniel Sedin ($7MM, UFA)
F Henrik Sedin ($7MM, UFA)
D Erik Gudbranson ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Thomas Vanek ($2MM, UFA)
F Sven Baertschi ($1.85MM, RFA)
D Troy Stecher ($925K, RFA)
F Markus Granlund ($900K, RFA)
F Alexander Burmistrov ($900K, RFA)
F Anton Rodin ($700K, UFA)
F Reid Boucher ($688K, RFA)
D Patrick Wiercioch ($625K, UFA)

On a positive note, there are many contracts that are set to expire next year, which could give the Canucks quite a bit of cap space. What the team will do with the Sedin brothers, long-time franchise players, is still up in the air. Rumors that they have no interest in going to a contender to finish out their careers suggest that they may choose to retire or sign up for a much shorter, much cheaper deal with Vancouver. While both have been leading the franchise, their numbers have begun to decline now that they are 36 years old with Daniel Sedin putting up just 15 goals and 44 points a year ago, while brother Henrik also just putting up 15 goals and 51 points.

There are very few potential unrestricted free agents that are critical to the team’s building of the future. While Gudbranson is just 25 years old, the team has shown a willingness to move on from the defenseman and has been talked about in trade rumors all offseason. The former third-overall pick in 2010 didn’t fare well in his first year in Vancouver, suffering a wrist injury and playing in only 30 games. The team may want to move on before they lose him. Vanek, signed late in the offseason, is also likely a trade chip at the trade deadline.

As for restricted free agents, the team still has high hopes that Baertschi will continue to improve. After struggling to break into the Calgary Flames starting unit, Vancouver picked him up and got 15 goals in 2015-16 and another 18 last year. The 24-year-old could easily wind up on the team’s second line and have a big year. Granlund, 24, is another youngster who stepped up a year ago, putting up 19 goals as a full-time starter. Stecher will also be a free agent. The 23-year-old undrafted free agent had a solid rookie season after coming to the Canucks from the University of North Dakota. He is penciled in as a first-line defender. The team also has high hopes they can turn around Burmistrov’s career. The former top-10 pick in 2010 was signed away from Arizona with the hopes he can fill a need in the bottom six.

Two Years Remaining

D Alexander Edler ($5MM, UFA)
D Michael Del Zotto ($3MM, UFA)
D Ben Hutton ($2.8MM, RFA)
G Anders Nilsson ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Derek Dorsett ($2.65MM, UFA)
F Brendan Gaunce ($750K, RFA)

Edler has been a solid defender and a franchise player, having played his entire career in Vancouver. He is still effective, but his offense has slowed down over the last few years as he has had 22 or less points in four of his last five years. The team will have to decide whether to keep the 31-year-old blueliner when his contract is up, but that will likely have more to do with how he plays over the next two years. As for Del Zotto, the team signed him away from Philadelphia this offseason to fill a hole in the defense. Whether or not he can stay healthy is another matter. Hutton continues to develop his offensive game, but has time to do that.

Nilsson was also signed this offseason to challenge for playing time in goal. The 27-year-old was a solid backup in Buffalo, but is hoping for more playing time in Vancouver. As for Gaunce, the 23-year-old has yet to establish himself. He played in 55 games last year, but no goals and five assists will not cut it.

Three Years Remaining

D Chris Tanev ($4.45MM, UFA)
G Jacob Markstrom ($3.67MM, UFA)
F Sam Gagner ($3.15MM, UFA)

Tanev, a stay-at-home defenseman is a solid presence on a weak defense. The 27-year-old has established himself as a great defensive player and is well worth the money he is getting. Markstrom must prove he can handle being a starter. He only played 27 games as a backup, but must now prove he can hold off Nilsson and show he can be a starter in this league. If not, then he is just an expensive backup. Gagner came over from Columbus where he had a solid season, including 18 goals and 50 points.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Loui Eriksson ($6MM through 2021-22)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
F Brandon Sutter ($4.38MM through 2020-21)

The team is in good shape in that it has few bad contracts that it must deal with on the long-term. However, the team did hand Eriksson a six-year, $36MM deal a year ago as he was coming off a 30-goal season with the Boston Bruins. However, the deal doesn’t look as good after the 32-year-old put up 11 goals in 65 games one year later and the team still owes him quite a bit of money. Horvat, however, is one of the new wave of young stars for Vancouver as the 22-year-old put up a 20-goal, 52 points season a year ago. The team hopes an even bigger breakout may be coming in his third year. Sutter is another one who the team hopes can become more consistent. The 28-year-old wing had 17 goals and 17 assists last year, but injuries have kept him in and out of the lineup, depending on the year.

Buyouts

F Chris Higgins ($833K in 2017-18)

Retained Salary Transactions

G Roberto Luongo ($800K through 2021-22)
F Jannik Hansen ($500K in 2017-18)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Tanev
Worst Value: Eriksson

Looking Ahead

The Canucks are in a position to build a solid roster after this season. The team should be able to make a big free-agent splash if it wants and begin to build a winner. What this teams seems to lack is young talent, especially on offense. Horvat and Boeser should be great and there are a few others, but the team seems to lack those top young players who will turn the franchise around. That’s because several of their first-rounds like Gaunce, Virtanen haven’t panned out yet, which leaves a gaping hole of talent on the roster. Nevertheless, the team did a solid job bringing in solid role players for reasonable and short deals, which should only make them stronger.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings

September 23, 2017 at 8:41 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $68,168,560 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Oscar Fantenberg (One year remaining, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

None

This is not a very young team and the only player to have an entry-level deal is Fantenberg, who is the 25-year-old blueliner, who signed a one-year, two-way deal earlier this year. The defenseman has never played in the U.S. before, but he opened some eyes recently when he found himself on the Kings’ roster to travel to Japan for some exhibition games, suggesting he has a legitimate chance to earn a starting job on the team’s defense.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mike Cammalleri ($1MM, UFA)
F Jordan Nolan ($950K, UFA)
F Nick Shore ($925K, RFA)
D Christian Folin ($800K, UFA)
D Derek Forbort ($650K, RFA)
D Kevin Gravel ($650K, RFA)
G Darcy Kuemper ($650K, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($640K, UFA)

Have originally started his career in L.A., Cammalleri returns to his former team after a three-year stint in New Jersey, which came after a three-year stint in Calgary and after a three-year stint in Montreal. The 35-year-old wing isn’t the same guy who put up many 20-plus goal seasons, but the hope is he can fill a back-six line for the coming season at a low price. Nolan will fight for a fourth-line role, while Gravel may also have to fight for a bottom pairing on defense, especially since he is still waiver-exempt.

Shore is one of those young players the Kings hope will have a breakout year. The 24-year-old wing has not been able to put it all together yet. He finished last year with six goals and 11 assists for 17 points, but is capable of more if he can put it all together.

Forbert played on the first line a year ago and managed to play in all 82 games. The team now hopes the 25-year-old starts to cash in on the team’s promise when they drafted him in the first round back in 2010. His defensive proficiency is designed to allow others to focus on offense more. The team also hopes Folin, signed away from Minnesota this offseason, will grab one of the last couple of defensive openings. The 26-year-old played 51 games for the Wild last season, but has had trouble getting a full-time role.

Two Years Remaining

D Drew Doughty ($7MM, UFA)
F Andy Andreoff ($678K, UFA)

Just as there were few key one-year deals, the same holds true at tw0-year deals. Doughty is a key piece for the Kings. The 27-year-old defenseman is a great two-way player and finished with 12 goals and 44 points, a slight down year for the defenseman. The franchise blueliner has been mentioned in trade rumors, but is staying put for now and the team hopes it can eventually lock him up long-term.

Three Years Remaining

F Tyler Toffoli ($4.6MM, UFA)
D Jake Muzzin ($4MM, UFA)
F Trevor Lewis ($2MM, UFA)
F Kyle Clifford ($1.6MM, UFA)

Toffoli, the 25-year-old center, had established himself as a potential franchise player after increasing his goal totals every year, including a 31-goal performance in the 2015-16 season. However, like most Kings last year, Toffoli suffered a down year, finishing the season with 16 goals and 18 assists in 63 games and should bounce back in his fifth season with the franchise. Muzzin, a key defender, also saw his stats slip last year. After two 40-point seasons, his numbers dropped to 28 points. Lewis and Clifford are bottom line forwards who will have to fight for a chance to play on the team’s third line.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Anze Kopitar ($10MM through 2023-24)
F Dustin Brown ($5.88MM through 2021-22)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM through 2022-23)
F Jeff Carter ($5.27MM through 2021-22)
F Marian Gaborik ($4.88MM through 2020-21)
D Alec Martinez ($4MM through 2020-21)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.75MM through 2020-21)

It looks like the team invested all of their money on locking up their core players to long-term deals. However, many of those players have aged quickly and aren’t the franchise players they should be. Kopitar is still a very productive player, but should he be paid $10MM per year for the next seven years. He’s already 30, so that’s a contract that could hamper them for years. His 12 goals and 40 assists aren’t too impressive when you look at his contract. The 32-year-old Brown is in a similar situation. Despite having five years left, Brown’s game has slipped over the past few years. No longer the 20-goal scorer he was in his prime, the veteran wing actually had an improved year, putting up 14 goals and 36 points, which is the best year he’s had since 2011-12. Gaborik is entering a season in which has not been medically cleared to play yet after offseason knee surgery to correct two problems. At age 35, his time is running out, but the knee problems have forced him to miss 54 games over the past two years.

Quick is still considered a top-notch goalie, but the team lost him to injury for much of the season last year. His numbers are still good, but how long can he continue to do that with a depleted defense and an aging frontline? As for Carter, he was well worth the money the Kings spent for him. Even at age 32, Carter put up 32 goals and 34 assists for a big season. Martinez is also a defenseman who is trending in the right direction. The top-four defenseman is coming off a career-high in points with 39 and continues to improve.

Buyouts

D Matt Greene ($833K in 2017-18, $833K in 2018-19)
F Mike Richards ($1.32MM for a recapture penalty through 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Doughty
Worst Value: Brown

Looking Ahead

The Kings have themselves a lot of problems as the franchise is saddled with numerous long-term deals to players who are near 30 or have already crossed over that 30-year line. With a new coach and general manger in tow, the team must figure out how they are going to add some young players to mix in with the veterans they already have who aren’t going anywhere. Perhaps a buyout or two in the future will ease the cap problems this franchise will deal with, but it may be a while before this franchise returns to its former glory.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames

September 22, 2017 at 6:47 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Hit: $69,784,210 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Tkachuk (Two years remaining, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Tkachuk: $850K

It wasn’t known right away last year if Tkachuk would be NHL ready after being drafted but he put that talk to rest pretty quickly with a very productive rookie campaign. He is already a top-six forward and if he progresses into a top-liner by the end of his contract, he could find himself in the range of six years and $33MM that several notable players have signed coming off of their entry-level pacts.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikael Backlund ($3.575MM, UFA)
D Matt Bartkowski ($613K, UFA)
G Eddie Lack ($1.375MM, UFA)*
F Matt Stajan ($3.125MM, UFA)
F Kris Versteeg ($1.75MM, UFA)

* – Carolina is retaining $1.375MM on Lack’s contract.

The Flames have already publicly expressed an interest in keeping Backlund, their first rounder back in 2007. His game has really taken off over the past two seasons and he has now slid into a full-time top-six role. As a result, he’s in line for a sizable raise on his next contract given the demand for impact centers on the open market. Stajan has become more of a depth player in recent years and while he will likely earn another contract, it will be for considerably less than his current one. Versteeg impressed after coming over late in training camp last year but still was only able to garner a one-year deal, albeit at a decent raise. While on the surface it would seem like a similar season would position himself to get more interest in the summer, he hasn’t had a lot of suitors in the past.

Bartkowski was able to get the extra year on his contract thanks to expansion and will now battle for the seventh spot on the depth chart. As a result, his next deal shouldn’t be too much higher a year from now. As for Lack, he will serve as the backup and will be looking to restore some value after a particularly rough season with the Hurricanes. Top reserve netminders are starting to land bigger contracts (such as the one he’s currently on) and a good year from him would position Lack to sign at least a comparable deal next offseason.

Two Years Remaining

F Sam Bennett ($1.95MM, RFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($950K, RFA)
G Mike Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)*

* – Arizona is retaining 25% of Smith’s contract.

Bennett unsurprisingly signed a bridge deal coming off a so-so sophomore campaign. The Flames still view him as a top-six center down the road and if they’re unable to re-sign Backlund, he could find himself in that spot a year from now. This is a contract where both sides are hoping that Bennett vastly outperforms it and earns himself a big money, long-term pact as a result. If that doesn’t happen, he could find himself as a strong change-of-scenery candidate by the time the two years are up.

Ferland showed some offensive touch last season and plays a very physical style. Those two elements will be attractive when he’s eligible for free agency so assuming he can hover around the 15-goal mark, his next deal should be a fair bit pricier. Lazar had a disastrous 2016-17 season which is why Calgary was able to lock him up this cheap. He still has some upside and could make this a bargain by the time it’s all said and done if he can hold down a regular role but on the flipside, a poor training camp and start to the season could have him on waivers before too long.

After Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson didn’t get the job done last year, the Flames are hoping that Smith, who had comparable numbers behind a lesser defense in Arizona, will be able to help them take that next step forward. If Smith can rebound with the aid of one of the strong back ends in the league, the contract could wind up being a bit of a bargain but if he struggles, they’ll likely be shopping for a new starter next summer once again.

Three Years Remaining

D T.J. Brodie ($4.6504MM, UFA)
F Troy Brouwer ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Michael Frolik ($4.3MM, UFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($3.857MM, UFA)
D Michael Stone ($3.5MM, UFA)

Brouwer’s first season with Calgary did not go particularly well. He wound up with the lowest full-season point total of his career despite spending a significant portion of the season in their top six. He’ll probably get another chance in there at some point due to a lack of right-wing depth but if he falters early on, GM Brad Treliving will be looking to move him out. However, he has a full no-trade clause this season. Frolik has been remarkably consistent, averaging 0.50 to 0.54 points per game over the past four seasons and provides the Flames with good secondary production. He won’t be a strong value contract for the money he’s making but if he can maintain that level of scoring, the deal won’t be a negative one either.

Brodie struggled out of the gate last season but rebounded well while maintaining a spot on the top pairing. Whenever you can get a top-two defender at that price (with quality production from the point as well), it’s a bargain deal. Hamonic was acquired from the Islanders where he’ll be asked to play in a second pairing role. They paid a steep price to get him in terms of the acquisition cost but he’s only a year removed from being a top-two defender for the Islanders. He has the potential to really deepen their back end and take some pressure off of the top pairing and having someone that can do that making under $4MM is another bargain. Stone didn’t fare too well in Arizona but his play picked up after being dealt to Calgary. He’s pricey for the role he’ll start in (on the third pairing) but he’s capable of moving up when needed and is a nice luxury to have while they have the cap space.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75MM through 2021-22)
D Mark Giordano ($6.75MM through 2021-22)
F Sean Monahan ($6.325MM through 2022-23)

Treliving didn’t go the bridge route with his two top forwards last year and instead bypassed the bridge contract for the long-term deal right away. While both players saw their production dip a little bit in 2016-17 in the first year of their new contracts, Gaudreau and Monahan still finished first and second respectively in scoring for the Flames and are locked in as front-line fixtures for years to come. It’s also noteworthy that Gaudreau’s deal came in at the same rate as Giordano as that likely sets their internal contract ceiling for the foreseeable future.

Speaking of Giordano, his scoring numbers dropped considerably last season but his all-around game remained strong. As long as he can play at the level of a top pairing blueliner, the Flames will get good value out of this contract but he turns 34 before the season starts and has five years remaining. At some point, he is going to drop down the depth chart and make this a tougher deal to carry on the books but that is still probably a few years away at least.

Buyouts

F Lance Bouma ($667K in 2017-18, $767K in 2018-19)
D Ryan Murphy ($100K in 2017-18, $138K in 2018-19)
F Mason Raymond ($1.05MM in 2017-18)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Brodie
Worst Value: Brouwer

Looking Ahead

While many expect their provincial counterparts to have to make some cap-related trades in the near future, the Flames shouldn’t find themselves in that same situation any time soon. Their expected big pay raises are staggered a little bit (Backlund next summer, Tkachuk the one after that with maybe Bennett fitting here as well) and there aren’t any real cap-crippling contracts on the books. (Brouwer’s isn’t a good deal but it’s short enough that they could plausibly buy him out if it came to it.) Calgary has arguably the deepest defense corps in the league (Nashville would give them a run here) and they’ll be able to afford it for a while yet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Chicago Blackhawks

September 19, 2017 at 9:03 pm CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

Chicago Blackhawks

Current Cap Hit: $75,034,795 (over the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

RW Ryan Hartman (one-year remaining, $863K)
C Nick Schmaltz (two-years remaining, $925K)
C Vinnie Hinostroza (one-year remaining, $718K)
D Gustav Forsling (two-years remaining, $872.5K)
D Ville Pokka (one-year remaining, $650K)

Schmaltz is a lock for the roster along with Hartman but Hinostroza depending, on the play of a number of players, could find himself in Rockford to start the season. A strong training camp could give him a chance to usurp a few veterans on a PTO while also grabbing a spot away from the likes of a Tomas Jurco, Jordin Tootoo or Lance Bouma. Forsling will most likely spend the bulk of the season in Rockford, barring major injury or a lack of production from one of the veterans. Pokka will vie with Forsling for a spot, but many expect Cody Franson to have the upper hand when it comes to defensemen making the team, leaving the two youngsters as either a healthy scratch, or starting in Rockford.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Lance Bouma ($1M, UFA)
RW Patrick Sharp ($800K, UFA)
LW/RW Tomas Jurco (800K, RFA)
RW/LW Tommy Wingels ($750K, UFA)
RW Jordin Tootoo ($700K, UFA)
D Michal Kempny ($900K, UFA)
D Michal Rozsival ($650K, UFA)

It’s an interesting list of players with one-year deals, but Sharp, who is back for a second go-around with the Hawks, could find himself shuffled between the top and bottom six on any given day. Expect Sharp to be the player who takes a similar approach to the now retired Brian Campbell: a reunion in Chicago that could be extended yearly based on his body holding out and production remaining consistent. Sharp spent the last two seasons playing in pain, but after hip surgery, he now feels better. If this rejuvinates him, he could be a bargain deal.

This is dependent on a number of factors, namely, which young kids could see rotation within the lines. Jurco is an acclamation project, a castoff from the Red Wings who could play a big role should he live up to the once-upon-a-time expectations he promised. Wingels, Rozsival and Tootoo are most likely playing out a contract in Chicago while Kempny is playing for a longer term deal. Bouma is most likely a one-and-done in Chicago, but if he can recapture the scoring touch he had two seasons ago in Calgary, he could be a Panik-like revelation and earn some extra years in the Windy City.

Two Years Remaining

RW Richard Panik ($2.8M, UFA)
C Tanner Kero ($750K, RFA)
G Anton Forsberg ($750K, RFA)
G Jean-Francois Berube ($700K, UFA)

Panik received a very cap-friendly hit for a player who found a niche in Chicago, netting 44 points (22-22) in a career year. Kero filled in nicely during a slew of injuries, planting himself as a dependable third line center on a very economically friendly deal. Forsberg and Berube will both have chances to rotate in as backups.

Three Years Remaining

G Corey Crawford ($6M, UFA)

Crawford may be over 30 but he continues to be a dependable and often game-stealing force in the net for Chicago. Though the Hawks blue line is older, Crawford hasn’t shown signs of true regression, as his numbers held steady during a season when Chicago wasn’t nearly as defensively dominant.

Four Or More Years Remaining

Patrick Kane ($10.4M, Runs through 2022-23)
Jonathan Toews ($10.4M, Runs through 2022-23)
Brandon Saad ($6M, Runs through 2020-21)
Artem Anisimov ($4.5M Runs through 2020-21)
Duncan Keith ($5.5M Runs through 2022-23)
Brent Seabrook ($6.85M Runs through 2023-24)
Connor Murphy ($3.85M Runs through 2021-22)
Marian Hossa ($5.28M Runs through 2020-21)

The bulk of Chicago’s salaries are long-term and while some appeared to be wise deals (Kane and Toews) others threaten to be an albatross for many years to come (Seabrook). Hossa’s contract is another one that remains to be seen, as his allergy-related retirement could push the Slovak’s contract onto the LTIR, giving the Hawks some needed breathing room. This hardly solves matters, as it will still limit them from adding any major players since they’ll still be butted up to the Cap limit. The Saad-Panarin deal back in June flipped players with identical dollar amounts but Saad is inked to a longer term. Murphy is a solid defenseman who should only get better with time, especially being surrounded by leaders and talents like Keith, and Seabrook. Finally, the acquisition of Saad will give the front office and fans a litmus test on the Captain. Dogged for “disappearing” in the playoffs and not posting better numbers in the regular season, Saad will be another two-way presence that will ease some of the stress off of Toews’ on-ice assignments. An uptick in production should quiet those who believe Toews is regressing with a very expensive contract.

Still to Sign

None

Looking Ahead

Some say the Blackhawks window is closing, but much of the same was said about the Penguins, who are now coming off consecutive Stanley Cup victories. The key for the Hawks will be health as they certainly don’t have the flexibility to add much in the way of salary.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

September 17, 2017 at 4:57 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $69,375,832 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alex Tuch (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Shea Theodore (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Tuch: $425K

While the brand-new franchise is focused on building up a powerhouse team over the next five years, which means draft picks and more draft picks, which will create a revolving door at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, there should be at least one constant who is already locked in for the future in Theodore. The just-turned 22-year-old is considered to be a long-term piece and despite the team’s overwhelming defensive logjam, the hope is Theodore is on the team’s opening day roster. Theodore shined last year during Anaheim’s playoff run when he along with several other defenseman had to step in for injured players and fared well. Theodore, a offensive defenseman, was a first-round pick of the Ducks in 2013 and despite having just nine points in 39 regular season games last year, he put up eight goals in 14 playoff games.

Tuch, a talented forward acquired near the expansion draft in a side deal with the Minnesota Wild, has a chance to immediately make the team out of training camp. The 21-year-old wing was a first-round pick in 2014 and scored 18 goals for the AHL’s Iowa Wild last year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F James Neal ($5MM, UFA)
F Mikhail Grabovski ($5MM, UFA)
D Jason Garrison ($4.6MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($3.75MM, UFA)
D Luca Sbisa ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Clayton Stoner ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.14MM, RFA)
F William Karlsson ($1MM, RFA)
D Colin Miller ($1MM, RFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($1MM, UFA)
G Calvin Pickard ($1MM, RFA)
F Jon Marchessault ($750K, UFA)
F Teemu Pulkkinen ($700K, RFA)

The Golden Knights will be looking to move as many of their players at the trade deadline as they can. Neal should be their biggest trade bait as many teams wouldn’t mind adding a goal-scorer right in time for the playoffs. The 30-year-old wing is coming off a 23-goal season in Nashville and has scored 165 goals in the last six seasons combined. The team hopes that playing on a top line should keep his scoring numbers up high so that his price increases at the perfect time, but a recent report that a wrist injury suffered during the playoffs last year is still affecting Neal and he will miss two to four weeks is concerning. The team also has high hopes it can move Perron. After putting up a career-high 28 goals in 2013-14, he has struggled with injuries but rebounded last year with an 18 goal season. If he can stay healthy and produce similar numbers, he might be worth a mid to late pick.

One key decision the team will have to make is what to do with Marchessault, who is coming off a 30-goal season a year ago in Florida. At $750K, he is a bargain for the next year, but if he can duplicate his numbers from last year, he would be in line for a big payday. Complicating the situation is that Vegas head coach Gerard Gallant is a big fan of the 26-year-old and was the head coach in Florida wlast year when Marchessault started his breakout season.

The team also has a number of restricted free agents who they will likely hold onto. While Pickard’s name is rarely mentioned in Vegas as he is the current backup, don’t be surprised if Pickard is penciled in as the goaltender of the future. The 25-year-old struggled with Colorado last year (although he did have one of the worst teams around him), but was a promising prospect before that. Miller is another who should be retained. The 24-year-old was a promising defender in Boston who was just beginning to get full-time work. He got into 61 games last year and showed quite a bit of promise. Karlsson should get a bottom line spot in the lineup. The 24-year-old is coming off a 25-point season and the team hopes he takes his game up a notch.

While Grabovski likely won’t see the ice ever in Las Vegas (freeing the team of his $5MM cap hit), Garrison is a defender who may prove to have some value if he can produce on one of the team’s top defensive lines. The 32-year-old struggled at times in Tampa Bay and his offensive numbers have declined in the past couple of years. McNabb is considered to be an excellent defender and should provide solid defense for Vegas. He missed a lot of time due to a broken collarbone injury he suffered last October, forcing the 26-year-old in and out of the lineup all season and he eventually lost his starting job at the end of the year, but should get regular minutes with the Golden Knights. Sbisa is another player who should get playing time in hopes the team can move him later this year. The 27-year-old blueliner was a solid defenseman, but few teams were interested in his $3.6MM pricetag.

Two Years Remaining

G Marc-Andre Fleury ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Vadim Shipachyov ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Nate Schmidt ($2.23MM, UFA)
F Oscar Lindberg ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.45MM, UFA)
D Griffin Reinhart ($800K, RFA)
D Brad Hunt ($650K, UFA)

We’ll see where Fleury’s game is in two years, but the 32-year-old goaltender actually struggled last year with the Penguins. He finished the season with a 3.02 GAA in 38 games and had a .909 save percentage, well under his usual numbers. The question is, can he improve on that much when he doesn’t have Pittsburgh’s solid defense behind him and is, in fact, behind an expansion defensive line? Obviously, he made a name for himself in the playoffs when he had to sub in for an injured Matt Murray and thrived for a round until Murray returned. Pickard might be ready to supplant Fleury in two years if he hadn’t already done it.

Shipachyov is a different story. The 30-year-old KHL forward has been a big-time goal scorer for many year and now brings his talent to Las Vegas. However, he only inked a two-year deal and no one is quite sure how his game will translate to the NHL. They likely will avoid trading him in the first year of the deal, but don’t be surprised if he gets moved before his contract expires.

Schmidt is finally going to get a chance to prove he’s a top four defenseman. On a crowded defensive line, Schmidt was still a very good player, but he must prove himself now that he will be among the better defenders on the team. Lindberg is another young player who will be given a better opportunity to thrive. The 25-year-old center who was selected from the New York Rangers has tallied 21 goals in two season combined and the hope is he breaks out with the Golden Knights.

Three Years Remaining

F David Clarkson ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Cody Eakin ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.75MM, UFA)

The one thing is the team has few long-term deals and Clarkson’s deal shouldn’t count against the cap as the 33-year-old veteran missed all of last season and played in just 23 games in the 2015-16 season. He has been plagued by lower back issues for the last few years. The Golden Knights took the contract of Clarkson off the Columbus Blue Jackets’ hands for a first-round pick in 2017 and a second round pick in 2019.

Eakin, on the other hand, is a gamble made by general manager George McPhee. Originally drafted by McPhee in Washington back in 2009, Eakin has had an up and down career, including three seasons where he scored 16 or more goals, but the 26-year-old center really struggled in Dallas last season with just three goals in 60 games. McPhee likely thinks he can revive his career. Haula came from Minnesota in the expansion draft, but the 26-year old center has consistently improved in the four years he’s been in the league, finishing with 15 goal and 11 assist season. The team signed Haula to a three-year deal during their free agency window before the expansion draft. By taking Haula and avoiding Minnesota’s glut of defensemen, they also acquired Tuch as part of the overall deal.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Reilly Smith ($5MM through 2021-22)

Only one deal goes over four years as the team took the challenge of trading for Reilly Smith at the expansion draft for a 2018 fourth-round pick as part of a side deal. Smith is still just 26 and has scored 40 goals over the past two years combined, although he had a down year last year with just 15 goals and 22 assists. The team hopes Gallant, Smith’s former coach, can get him to play at the level when Smith was at his best.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

Alexei Emelin ($1.1MM for 2017-18)

Still To Sign

None

Looking Ahead

The team should thrive in Vegas as the team has made Fleury the face of the franchise and hopes to build the team’s initial success on Fleury, Neal and Shipachyov. The team is committed to build for the future. Their flurry of deals, however, netted them three first-round picks this year and a bunch of others and the hope is that if some players can have big years, the team can unload those for even more picks.

Eventually this team will be built around players like Cody Glass, Erik Brannstrom, Nick Suzuki, Theodore and other young players who are going to be added to their franchise over time.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

September 16, 2017 at 11:43 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $66,290,500 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kevin Labanc (Two years remaining, $718K)
F Timo Meier (Two years remaining, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Labanc: $183K
Meier: $750K

Total: $933K

Labanc didn’t make San Jose’s roster out of training camp but after being recalled in November, he was pretty much a regular for the rest of the season aside from a brief game or two here and there at the AHL level. With the team not replacing Patrick Marleau in free agency, they will be looking at Labanc among others to pick up the slack. Meier didn’t see as much NHL action as Labanc did but the fact he was pretty much a regular in the playoffs bodes well for his short-term NHL future. If one of them can lock down a top-six role by the end of their contracts, they’ll be in line to at least double their current pay two years from now.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Aaron Dell ($625K, RFA)
D Dylan DeMelo ($650K, RFA)
F Jannik Hansen ($2MM*, UFA)
F Tomas Hertl ($3MM, RFA)
F Chris Tierney ($735K, RFA)
F Joe Thornton ($8MM, UFA)
F Joel Ward ($3.275MM, UFA)

* – Vancouver is retaining $500K on Hansen’s contract.

Thornton’s raise came as a surprise but that only happened once Marleau departed for Toronto. He has the reputation of being a premier playmaker but is coming off of his lowest points-per-game average since 1998-99 and he’ll likely only be on the second line. Value wise, this isn’t a good contract but they have more than enough space to deal with it. Trading the contract might be tough but Thornton isn’t likely to waive his no-move clause anyway. Hansen is on a bargain contract for someone who is expected to play in the top six. If he can stay healthy and put up around 35-40 points, he’ll be in line to beat the $3MM salary he’s earning this season on the open market. Ward is better off as a third line winger at this stage but has still been a productive player even as he approaches the age of 37. If he decides to keep playing, he’ll be heading for one-year contracts from here on out. Tierney took his qualifying offer but unless his output takes a big dive, he could stand to double his contract next summer.

Then there’s Hertl, whose case is quite the intriguing one. He signed a bridge deal last summer and the first year didn’t go exactly as either side planned. A knee injury cost him a big part of the season and he wound up with just 22 points in 49 games. The Sharks will be counting on him to take a big step forward this season and if he delivers, the long-term, big money contract should be there as he’ll have lots of leverage with arbitration rights. If he only gets back to around the 35-40 point mark though, the question of what his ceiling is will come up – is he a front liner in the near future or more of a middle-six forward? If that happens, another one-year contract might not be out of the question.

DeMelo was banged up last year and was scratched at times when he was healthy and will likely once again be a depth defender. He’ll be in line for a raise due to his qualifying offer ($735K) but unless he gets regular playing time, he probably won’t get much more. Dell had a fantastic rookie season as the backup goaltender and his cap hit (which falls below the league minimum) looks like a major bargain. He is positioning himself nicely to be one of the better backups to hit the open market next summer at a time where quality backups are starting to get bigger contracts.

Two Years Remaining

F Logan Couture ($6MM, UFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($1.9MM, UFA)
D Tim Heed ($650K, UFA)
D Paul Martin ($4.85MM, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($6MM, UFA)
F Marcus Sorensen ($700K, RFA)

Couture and Pavelski are the cornerstones for San Jose up front and it’s interesting that both of their contracts expire at the same time. Pavelski has established himself as a legitimate number one center and those players are in high demand so he is looking at a fairly hefty increase on his next deal. Couture’s offensive numbers haven’t been quite as strong the last couple of seasons and if that continues, he’ll wind up with his next contract being somewhat similar to this one. If he can get back to the 65+ point form though, there will be a major deal waiting for him. Donskoi’s sophomore season wasn’t anywhere near as strong as his rookie campaign but with a cap hit below $2MM, he’s reasonably priced even in a bottom-six role. Like Meier, Sorenson didn’t see a lot of regular season action but was a regular in the playoffs. If he holds down a regular spot over the next couple of years, he’ll get a bit of a raise but they shouldn’t have to budget much more than that down the road.

Martin is coming off one of his best offensive seasons and has been a steady second pairing player. He’ll be 38 at the end of his contract though which will set him up for one-year deals when it expires. If he can hold down a second pairing spot for the next two years, he’ll be worth his deal (or close to it) but if Martin drops down to the third pairing, his contract may be a tough one to try and trade away.

Three Years Remaining

F Mikkel Boedker ($4MM, UFA)
D Justin Braun ($3.8MM, UFA)
D Brenden Dillon ($3.27MM, UFA)
F Melker Karlsson ($2MM, UFA)

Boedker’s first season in San Jose wasn’t a particularly strong one. His 26 points were his lowest since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign and he found himself on the third line (or lower) for good chunks of the season. History suggests he’s due to rebound somewhat but if he doesn’t, this will be a tough contract to try to move without taking a comparably bad deal in return. Karlsson has been an effective bottom six winger and should be able to hold down a third line role which will provide decent value on his contract.

With San Jose having a lot of money tied up in their back end, there was some speculation that a player like Braun could be moved for some help up front. While it appears they’ll give their prospects (and bounce back candidates) the first chance, this scenario could present itself once again during the season if they’re struggling to score. Dillon is no more than a third pairing player and with this much term and money left on his contract, he’ll be a tough one to trade if they ultimately decide that they would like to go cheaper at that spot.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Brent Burns ($8MM through 2024-25)
G Martin Jones ($3MM in 2017-18, $5.75MM from 2018-19 through 2023-24)
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($4.25MM in 2017-18, $7MM from 2018-19 through 2025-26)

Coming off of a career year, the Sharks didn’t waste much time getting Burns inked to an early extension and he rewarded them by doing even better last season while winning the Norris Trophy for the NHL’s best defenseman. However, he’s already 32 and it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be a top pairing All-Star by the end of his contract. San Jose should get good value out of this deal for a few years at least but this could be a problem by the time the last couple of years come around. Vlasic also wasted little time getting an extension done back in July and as long as he can maintain his spot on the first pairing, he’ll be worth the money. Once that changes though, this will likely also become a burdensome contract on the books.

Jones was yet another player to extend a year early. He has quickly emerged as one of the better starting goalies in the league and at $5.75MM, he’s signed at a lesser rate than a lot of the more prominent number ones. His shorter track record (he has only been in the league for four years and a starter for two) likely didn’t help his leverage in contract talks very much.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Looking Ahead

This feels a bit like a transition year for San Jose with eyes on reshaping things next summer. They have plenty of cap space for this season with Thornton’s big contract coming off of the books as well so they should have plenty of flexibility if they choose to do that.

They will likely want to be a bit careful on the back end where they’re going to be spending over $25MM this year, a number that will likely approach upwards of $29MM-$30MM for 2018-19. If they opt to change things up, they probably won’t want to add much more to the defense.

The big thing to watch for is Pavelski and Couture’s deals two years from now. Currently, the Sharks don’t have many long-term contracts on the books (which is a nice spot to be in) but that will have to change if they want to get those two signed. Given their penchant for early extensions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see talks kick off pretty quickly come July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Anaheim Ducks

September 13, 2017 at 7:38 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Anaheim Ducks

Current Cap Hit: $71,684,167 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Ondrej Kase (One year remaining, $670K)
D Brandon Montour (One year remaining, $925K)
F Nick Ritchie (One year remaining, $894K)

Ritchie had a nice first full season that saw him collect 28 points while playing 13 minutes per game. If he maintains that, he’ll position himself for a decent raise but if he can push closer to 40 points and take on a bigger role, he could push closer towards $3MM on a bridge contract. Kase took on a fourth line role and will probably battle for that spot in the lineup again. He’ll be in line for a small raise but nothing too significant.

Montour spent most of last year in the minors but played an important role in the playoffs due to injuries. With a pair of regulars slated to be out for a while to start the season, he should see action early on and could play himself into a full-time role.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Francois Beauchemin ($1MM, UFA)
D Kevin Bieksa ($4MM, UFA)
F Jared Boll ($900K, UFA)
F Andrew Cogliano ($3MM, UFA)
D Josh Manson ($825K, RFA)
F Dennis Rasmussen ($725K, UFA)
F Logan Shaw ($650K, RFA)
F Antoine Vermette ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Chris Wagner ($638K, UFA)

Potential Bonuses

Beauchemin: $600K
Ritchie: $850K

Total: $1.45MM

Cogliano has quietly been an effective secondary scorer in past years and fits nicely into a middle-six role. Those types of players have started to get squeezed out in free agency as teams look to sign top guys and round out the roster with cheap depth. Some players still buck that trend though and if Cogliano can get around 30 points again, he should be able to as well. Vermette has seen his production dip in recent years but remains one of the top faceoff players in the game which means there will always be some sort of market for him. He’s also collecting $1.25MM from the Coyotes so between that and his current cap hit, he will likely have to take a pay cut next season. The other four players on this list project to be depth pieces and won’t be expected to earn any sort of big raise on their next contracts.

On the back end, there are two different types of players. The first are the aging veterans, highlighted by Bieksa. He’s coming off of one of the quietest seasons of his career and has seen his role diminish quite a bit lately. He might garner one more contract based on reputation but it shouldn’t be close to what he’s getting now. Beauchemin has already stated that this is likely his final NHL season and will likely be more of a depth player when everyone’s healthy but value wise, this is still a pretty good contract.

Then there’s Manson on the opposite end of the spectrum. He has been buried behind their other young blueliners but has still managed to establish himself as an up-and-coming top-four option. He should get a chance to play a bigger role this coming season and with it, he’ll have an opportunity to show he’s worthy of a long-term contract like the others. Manson will also have arbitration rights so he is well on his way towards landing a much bigger contract coming off of his bridge deal. A lack of offense will limit the final number (he’ll come in below their top-three) but it will still be a major raise that GM Bob Murray will need to budget for.

Two Years Remaining

G John Gibson ($2.3MM, RFA)
D Korbinian Holzer ($900K, UFA)
G Ryan Miller ($2MM, UFA)
F Jakob Silfverberg ($3.75MM, UFA)

Silfverberg continues to improve by the year and is now a quality second line forward at the very least. He’s already looking likely to get a notable raise two years from now but if he can crack the 50 point mark, he’ll set himself up to be one of the more prominent names out there should he make it to the open market. As for Holzer, he has been a serviceable number six option when called upon and will reprise that role for a couple more years now. His next contract probably won’t be much bigger than this one.

Between the pipes is certainly interesting. Gibson hasn’t completely established himself as a sure fire starter just yet but based on his improvement over the last couple of seasons, there’s a good chance he’ll be there by the time this contract is up. If that happens, he could push for upwards of $6MM or more. Will the Ducks consider trying to extend him a year from now when the asking price could potentially be a bit lower? Miller was a nice acquisition to serve as insurance; he’s among the higher-paid backups but as someone who can still handle a starting workload if need be, it’s worth paying a bit more to have that option.

Three Years Remaining

F Patrick Eaves ($3.15MM, UFA)
D Sami Vatanen ($4.875MM, UFA)

After being a bottom-six player for basically his entire career, Eaves took off last season and was arguably the most surprising breakout player in the league. The Ducks are banking that he’ll still have at least some of that touch for this season and beyond after signing him before free agency. Eaves doesn’t have to eclipse 30 goals and 50 points to live up to the deal though; if he can even produce third line numbers, it should be a reasonable contract.

Vatanen took a step back offensively last year, scoring just three times. As the league trends towards more mobile defensemen though, his value increases as he is a strong puck-mover and skater so even if the production doesn’t take a big jump, he’ll still be a key player for them. Unfortunately for the Ducks, he will be on the shelf to start this year due to offseason shoulder surgery.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Cam Fowler ($4MM in 2017-18, then $6.5MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Getzlaf ($8.25MM through 2020-21)
D Hampus Lindholm ($5.206MM through 2021-22)
F Ryan Kesler ($6.875MM through 2021-22)
F Corey Perry ($8.625MM through 2020-21)
F Rickard Rakell ($3.79MM through 2021-22)

While Perry is typically a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs, his regular season output dipped considerably last year; not only did he not hit 30 goals for the first time in three years, he didn’t even reach 20. When he’s on his game, Perry is still a very strong top line winger but if he’s starting to slow down, this contract could be a problem down the road. Getzlaf isn’t a major goal scorer but he’s still one of the more dominant centers in the league; while his deal is far from cheap, it’s not a major overpayment either, particularly given the demand for top centers. Kesler played up to his new contract last season but at 33 with five years left and his style of play, there’s a good chance those last few years could become burdensome. On the flip side, Rakell’s deal looks to provide very strong value after a career season that saw him score 33 goals despite missing time early on. A contract like his will help them to keep the higher-paid veteran core together a little longer.

It wasn’t long ago that Fowler was the subject of frequent trade speculation. He then went out and had his best season and earned himself a massive extension in the process. As long as he plays similar to how he performed in 2016-17, this should be a reasonable contract at worst over the long run. Lindholm’s offensive numbers have dropped two straight years but there is still some upside. If he can hold down a second or third blueliner role (a fairly safe assumption), then they’ll get good value out of that contract.

Buyouts

D Simon Despres ($1.2625MM in 2017-18, a $338K cap credit in 2018-19/2019-20, $963K in 2020-21, then $663K through 2024-25)
D Mark Fistric ($450K through 2018-19)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Patrick Maroon ($500K in 2017-18)

Still To Sign

None

Looking Ahead

While Anaheim is in good shape cap-wise this season, that will soon change. The team has over $56MM tied up into just 12 players for 2018-19 which doesn’t leave a whole lot of wiggle room to keep some of their pending free agents (plus get Manson’s next deal done). Beyond that, the number of veterans they have on long-term deals will likely price them out of going after top players in free agency or trades for the foreseeable future. The Ducks have been tight to the cap before (they finished with no cap space last year thanks to LTIR) and are likely to be in that spot once again pretty quickly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

September 10, 2017 at 4:50 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $68,913,333 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kevin Fiala (Two years remaining, $863K)
G Juuse Saros (One year remaining, $693K)

Potential Bonuses

Fiala: $500K
Saros: $183K

Total: $683K

A team that is designed for a Stanley Cup run probably shouldn’t have too many players on entry level contracts and the Predators have just the two. Fiala is the team’s top young potential star as the former 2014 first-rounder found himself getting called up to the Predators and logged 54 games last year, scoring 11 goals. He even managed to cement himself in the starting lineup and played in five playoff games, scoring two goals, but then broke his femur and his playoffs were cut short. Nevertheless, the team is expecting a big year from the young wing and some even have him penciled in on the team’s second line. As for Saros, the 22-year-old goalie had a pretty good showing last year, playing in 21 contests (19 starts) and putting up a 2.35 GAA and a .923 save percentage. He should be able to shoulder the load as the backup and right now looks to be Nashville’s goaltender of the future.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Alexei Emelin ($3MM, UFA)
F Scott Hartnell ($1MM, UFA)
F Cody McLeod ($800K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($650K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($650K, UFA)
D Anthony Bitetto ($613, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($613K, RFA)

The team, already immersed in quality defenders, picked up another veteran defender in Emelin this offseason in a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights, who picked him from the Montreal Canadiens in the expansion draft. A solid veteran, Emelin, should fill in for the injured Ellis until he returns in December and then provide some veteran depth throughout the rest of the season, which should keep Nashville’s defensive corps as strong as it had always been and he will likely be allowed to move on when his contract expires next year.

Hartnell returns to Nashville after 10 years. Originally drafted in the first round by Nashville in 2000, the 35-year-old forward played six years for the Predators before being traded to Philadelphia. He has scored 314 goals, but only managed 13 in his last year in Columbus. The team hopes his presence will spark the team for another Stanley Cup run. The rest, including Weber, Irwin and McLeod

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($7MM, UFA)
D Ryan Ellis ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Pontus Aberg ($650K, RFA)
F Colton Sissons ($625K, RFA)

Two years from now, Rinne’s who has been with the franchise since 2005, will be 36 years old and while he’s still playing well, he’s also beginning to slow down. Do they have an heir apparent ready to take over in Saros? It’s too early to tell, but unless he’s playing out of his mind still in two years, the team will most likely have to find a replacement in net. However, the team hopes he can keep it together for another couple of years for another chance at a Stanley Cup run.

Ellis went down with a knee injury during the playoffs, but continued to play. However, after offseason knee surgery, the 26-year-old defender will be out until January. Regardless, the defenseman is an outstanding defender and was listed by NHL.com as one of the top 20 defenseman in the league last year. His offensive numbers continue to improve as well as he had career highs with 16 goals and 38 points. Even with the injury, his $2.5MM deal for two more years is a bargain.

Aberg and Sissons are both restricted, so re-signing them shouldn’t be too big of a problem. Both are depth players with potential as Aberg has had little NHL experience, but scored 31 goals last year for the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals. He then got into 15 games for the Predators, scoring two points, but took off in the playoffs, putting up two goals and five points in 16 games. Sissons had just eight goals in 58 games last year, but then put up 12 points, including six goals in the playoffs, so the 23-year-old could be a player who could have an improved year.

Three Years Remaining

F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The 28-year-old Smith has been with Nashville from they day he was drafted in 2009 and he developed into a solid 20-goal scorer. In 2015, after scoring 47 goals in two years, he was rewarded with a five-year, $21.3MM deal. After a 12-goal season last year, his deal looks like one of the team’s worst deals. The team hopes he bounces back and returns to form. Josi, on the other hand has been one of the top defensemen in the league and is a bargain at $4MM per year. At 27 years old, Josi puts up big numbers and while last year’s numbers of 12 goals and 37 assists were below his usual standards, he made up for it with strong defense. Watson still has much to prove, but is likely to hold onto a fourth-line position this year. He only had 17 points in 77 games, but was a scorer with the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals and at age 25 has time to develop his skills.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D P.K. Subban ($9MM through 2021-22)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
F Filip Forsberg ($6MM through 2021-22)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM through 2020-21)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75 through 2021-22)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM through 2021-22)

Like a high-end general manager David Poile has locked up all his talent long-term with the idea of making long playoff runs the norm in Nashville. While Subban is already half-way through the eight-year, $72MM deal he signed in Montreal in 2014, he is the physical presence the team’s defense needs. He had 10 goals and 40 points, but was always there to shut down the other team’s top offensive player. Johansen just received his eight-year, $64MM deal in July and he did that with 14 goals and 47 assists last year. The team’s number one center added another three goals and 10 assists in the playoffs until he had to undergo emergency thigh surgery.

Forsberg has also been a key scorer for the team as the 23-year-old scored 31 goals last year and 90 goals in the past three seasons. A first-round pick in 2012, he is an integral piece to the team’s top scoring line along with Arvidsson, who is also locked up long-term. The 24-year-old had a breakout season last year, putting up 31 goals and 30 assists. He only had 16 points in 58 games a year ago.

The team went out and stole Bonino away from the Stanley Cup winning Pittsburgh Penguins. The 29-year-old gritty center had 18 goals and 19 assists for the Penguins a year ago, but $4.1MM a year for a 18-goal scorer seems exorbitant, assuming he even can be a second-line center. Ekholm is another quality defender on the team, who will have to pick up the slack with Ellis out, but the defensive defender is a key piece to the team. Jarnkrok’s long-term, short-money deal seems nice for a 25-year-old who has scored 31 goals combined in the last two seasons. If he can take it up one more notch, they will have themselves a steal.

Buyouts

F Viktor Stalberg ($1.17MM in 2017-18 and 2018-19)
F Eric Nystrom ($1MM in 2017-18)
D Barret Jackman ($667K in 2017-18)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Josi
Worst Value: Bonino

Looking Ahead

Poile has done an excellent job of putting together a team that can make a long run at a Stanley Cup. They have the defense and the firepower to do that, as well as the fact that almost everyone is locked up for three years or more. They do have a limited time with Rinne in goal, but besides that the team should prove to be a perennial contender for the next few years.

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