Examining The Blues’ Offseason Thus Far
Now that the dust has settled on the NHL Entry Draft and the early days of free agency, it’s fair to begin making sense of the direction certain teams are headed. One of the busier and more interesting teams this offseason has been the St. Louis Blues, who have taken a no-holds-barred approach to retooling their roster, including the trades of forward Jordan Kyrou and multiple first-round picks, as well as the Jonathan Drouin buyout. The Blues have also been busy adding to their lineup, bringing in forwards Connor McMichael and Mason McTavish, as well as defenseman Brandon Carlo and prospect Milton Gastrin. All of it looks dishevelled and all over the place, but for a team that has badly needed a retool, it’s a decent start for the Blues, though it’s a risky one as well.
The risky moves involve Kyrou and McTavish, and it’s hard to say which move carries more risk. Trading Kyrou was certainly a gamble, as he is a bona fide top-six forward who can put up offense. While he is talented, Kyrou struggled offensively last season, and it’s fair to wonder if the Blues sold low on the 28-year-old until you look at the return. St. Louis received forward McMichael, the number 16 selection in this year’s draft, and the aforementioned Gastrin, which was fair value for the highly sought-after Kyrou. Some might wonder why St. Louis felt compelled to deal Kyrou, but there was clearly something off about the core in St. Louis, which appeared so talented on paper yet was unable to get it done on the ice. Kyrou and McMichael suffered from the same affliction last season, namely that their talent levels didn’t line up with their on-ice production. A fresh start should work out well for both of them.
The other major risk for St. Louis was dealing two first-round picks for McTavish, who has a ton of upside and is just 24 years old. Like Kyrou, McTavish had a down year, and Anaheim elected to sell low, although St. Louis paid a hefty price for the former third-overall pick. There are concerns about McTavish’s skating, but St. Louis probably isn’t concerned about the top-end speed of their power forward with the heavy shot. That will be the risk with McTavish, though, because as good as his hands are and as accurate as his shot is, he needs to get around the ice with some pace, and it remains to be seen whether he will improve that.
Then there was the buyout of Drouin, which, in a vacuum, made sense given that he was owed $4MM and had dramatically underperformed last season in the first year of his two-year deal. Drouin had signed the contract last summer with the New York Islanders, who quickly realized he wasn’t a fit and moved him as part of the trade for Brayden Schenn. Drouin had been an effective player in the years prior while with the Colorado Avalanche, but didn’t fit with the Islanders or the Blues last season and is now a UFA. What made the Drouin buyout odd is that the Blues didn’t really use the savings on another move (other than the Ross Johnston signing) and instead opted to keep the cap space available. But with a full roster of 23 and over $10MM available, it’s possible they don’t spend it. It could be that St. Louis is staying under an internal cap and needed to save actual dollars, which might be the only real explanation for buying out a player who could’ve had some value at the NHL Trade Deadline if he had a bounce-back season.
The signing of Johnston was one of the only other major pieces of news for the Blues on the first day of free agency, as they kept things quiet, signing only him to a three-year, $6MM deal, and Dillon Dube to a one-year deal at the league minimum. Johnston will bring sandpaper to the Blues’ lineup and is effectively just an enforcer at this stage of his career, while Dube will be an unknown at the NHL level, having not played an NHL game since January 2024.
Overall, it’s hard to fault St. Louis for wanting to be proactive in their retooling rather than waiting around for prospects and picks to hopefully work out. By converting Kyrou and their extra first-round picks into young, NHL-ready talent, St. Louis has made themselves more difficult to play against and kept intact a fairly young core that also includes Robert Thomas, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. They didn’t go about things in the most cohesive manner, but there are times in the NHL when teams make moves to set up something bigger down the road or as part of a bigger plan. The Blues are a team in transition at the moment, and some of the moves made should inject energy into a group that had perhaps become a little stale and a little pessimistic about some of the trades made towards the end of last season, when some key pieces were sent out the door at the trade deadline. St. Louis got younger this summer, and it’s hard to judge the totality of their moves until the team takes to the ice next October.
Blues Acquire Brandon Carlo From Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ new-look front office has parted with an addition from the previous administration. Defenseman Brandon Carlo has been traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for two third-round picks per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. The deal was first reported by NHL.com’s Kevin Weekes. Specifically, Toronto will receive picks #73 and #76 in Saturday’s third-round.
Carlo joined the Maple Leafs ahead of the 2025 Trade Deadline in a deal that sent center prospect Fraser Minten, a first-round pick, and a fourth-round pick to the Boston Bruins. He only appeared in 75 games with the Maple Leafs, in part thanks to a foot injury that required surgery in December. Carlo racked up 10 points, all assists, as a member of the Maple Leafs. He also recorded 91 hits and 136 shot blocks, both fourth-most on the Toronto blue line in his time.
While Carlo didn’t shine in Toronto, he was able to fill a defense-focused, second-pair role on a nightly basis. He filled a shutdown role with the Bruins for nine seasons before his move. Carlo found much more impact in Boston, setting a 51.7 expected goals-for percentage through 617 games and recording at least 100 hits in five different seasons. He was a reliable defensive-defenseman who countered the high-octane offense of Torey Krug through his prime years, after spending the start of his career paired with Zdeno Chara.
St. Louis will now try to revitalize Carlo’s prime years, six years after acquiring the final years of Krug’s career in 2020. Carlo will help pillar a right-hand side in flux on the St. Louis blue line. He will join Colton Parayko as the shutdown options, while young defenders Logan Mailloux and Adam Jiricek find their footing in play-driving roles.
Jiricek made his pro debut during the AHL’s Calder Cup Playoffs but managed no scoring in six games. Acquiring Carlo will give Jiricek a bit more time to find his footing at the pro level, before the former first-round pick is called upon to fill a major role. He is still rather inexperienced for a pro defender, appearing in only 82 games through two seasons in the OHL thanks to a season-ending, lower-body injury in 2024-25.
The 29-year-old Carlo is set to enter the final year of his contract – a six-year, $24.6MM contract signed with Boston in 2021. He carries an inexpensive, $4.1MM cap hit.
Toronto used their acquired draft picks to draft winger Zach Olsen and defenseman Mans Gudmundsson. Both are strong picks. Olsen is among the best slot forwards in the class, playing with great and speed in small puck battles. Gudmundsson is among the best defensive-defenseman, with a shutdown presence and staggering frame. Both players bring fairly one-dimensional styles, though should find their way to pro impacts on the back of projectable skills.
East Notes: Maple Leafs, Mehlenbacher, Berglund
Tonight’s game was a tough one for the Maple Leafs. The team announced (Twitter links) that goaltender Anthony Stolarz (lower body), defenseman Brandon Carlo (lower body), and forward Dakota Joshua (upper body) all exited their game against Washington due to injuries.
Stolarz went down just 2:34 into the game after extending to make a save and dropped to the ice in pain. He was helped off and couldn’t put any weight on his leg while Joseph Woll took over for the rest of the game. Carlo made it through two periods, playing into the final minute of the second but didn’t come out for the third while Joshua was injured on a hit from Rasmus Sandin in the back half of the middle frame. The Maple Leafs have a quick turnaround as they’re set to play against the Islanders on Thursday; it wouldn’t be surprising to see several recalls before that contest. One of those will be netminder Artur Akhtyamov as TSN’s Mark Masters relays (Twitter link) that the youngster will be brought up and make his NHL debut against New York.
Elsewhere in the East:
- Red Wings prospect Owen Mehlenbacher is entering the NCAA transfer portal, reports Mark Divver of the New England Hockey Journal (Twitter link). The 22-year-old center was a seventh-round pick by Detroit back in 2022 and has played three college seasons so far. The first two were spent at Wisconsin where he managed 10 points in 51 combined games. This season, Mehlenbacher played at UMass after going through the portal last offseason, tallying three goals and six assists in 32 appearances. At this point, it seems unlikely that Detroit would want to sign Mehlenbacher based on how things have gone so far so he’ll be banking on finding a landing spot where he can have a big senior season.
- The Flyers are attempting to bring prospect Jack Berglund to North America to get him some action with AHL Lehigh Valley, relays Anthony DiMarco of Daily Faceoff. The 19-year-old forward was a second-round pick back in 2024, going 51st overall. Berglund had seven goals and five assists in 40 games with SHL Farjestad this season and has another year under contract with them. Kevin Kurz of The Athletic adds (Twitter link) that Philadelphia would like to have Berglund in training camp with them next season which suggests they intend to sign him to an entry-level deal for next season.
Latest On Maple Leafs’ Defense
In last night’s loss to the Detroit Red Wings, the Toronto Maple Leafs suffered another serious blow on defense, losing Oliver Ekman-Larsson partway through the game to a lower-body injury. Earlier today, on TSN’s Insider Trading, Pierre LeBrun posited that Ekman-Larsson is expected to miss some time. Still, there’s no concern about his availability for Team Sweden at the Olympics.
As bad as it is to lose your highest-scoring defenseman, that’s not the only injury Toronto’s defensive core suffered last night. According to TSN’s Chris Johnston, there is concern from the Maple Leafs that Brandon Carlo is also suffering from an ailment. Carlo only recently returned from a foot injury that cost him two months of the 2025-26 campaign.
Factoring in the long-term groin injury to Chris Tanev, Toronto may be without 75% of the top-four of their defensive core for the foreseeable future. Few teams would be able to absorb that many losses, and it couldn’t come at a worse time for the Maple Leafs, who currently sit one point back of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Still, although the team has yet to provide an update on the status of Ekman-Larsson or Carlo, LeBrun indicated on Insider Trading that the new injuries have motivated the Maple Leafs to increase their efforts to acquire a defenseman.
LeBrun specifically mentioned Dougie Hamilton of the New Jersey Devils and Luke Schenn of the Winnipeg Jets as likely options. Each defenseman has been linked to the Maple Leafs rather significantly over the last few weeks.
Still, there are a few reasons for pause. It’s not to suggest that Toronto couldn’t use an outside acquisition to bolster its defensive core, but desperation typically leads to overpayment. That’s not something the Maple Leafs can afford to do with so little prospect and draft capital.
Furthermore, the possibility of a Hamilton trade in the near future has taken a steep decline over the last few days. New Jersey recently lost defenseman Luke Hughes for the next month or more with a shoulder separation, opening a spot in the top four for Hamilton. As long as Hughes remains out, the Devils will be less inclined to move Hamilton despite the perceived benefits of doing so.
Meanwhile, it’s not obvious that Schenn would be a significant upgrade over Toronto’s other options. He’s had a disappointing year with the Jets, scoring one goal and six points in 35 games, averaging 13:51 of ice time per game. Furthermore, his defensive metrics have declined, showing a CorsiFor% of 45.2% and an on-ice SV% of 89.2% at even strength.
It’s clear that the Maple Leafs will need to bring in some help at any rate. Toronto has seven more games until the upcoming Olympic break, and their record over that stretch could have significant ramifications for the rest of the season.
Maple Leafs Activate Brandon Carlo From Injured Reserve
5:00 p.m.: Toronto officially announced Carlo’s activation, assigning Marshall Rifai to AHL Toronto instead as the corresponding move. McCabe remains on the active roster.
11:44 a.m.: The Maple Leafs will reinstate defenseman Brandon Carlo from injured reserve ahead of tonight’s game against the Panthers, head coach Craig Berube told reporters (including David Alter of The Hockey News). Toronto will need to make a corresponding move, although with fellow rearguard Jake McCabe injured and likely to miss a week with a lower-body injury, he’ll likely take Carlo’s IR spot.
The Leafs have been without Carlo for the majority of the season. Back on Nov. 13 against the Kings, he blocked a shot with his foot that knocked him out of the lineup. He was initially listed as day-to-day but sustained a setback in early December that resulted in surgery. He was expected back sometime in mid-January, so today’s activation comes ahead of schedule.
Yesterday, Berube clarified that Carlo’s setback was an infection in his ankle that had impacted initial recovery (per Anna Dua of Sportsnet). That stemmed from a left ankle fracture he had with the Bruins in 2018, so his recent procedure also addressed that clean-up.
While he’s been gone, the club has gained some ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race, but not much. They’re 11-7-5 in 23 games without him after starting 8-8-2. They’re only four points out of a spot, but their 19-15-7 record on the whole is still third-worst in the conference amid a tightly-packed picture.
With other injuries continuing to mount on Toronto’s blue line, the importance of Carlo’s return can’t be overstated. The big shutdown D wasn’t off to the best start, only controlling 42.8% of shot attempts at 5-on-5 with two assists through 18 games, but he’s a big part of the Leafs’ penalty kill and averages 20 minutes per game. With the Leafs’ top shutdown pair of McCabe and Chris Tanev out of the lineup, Carlo returning to be a stabilizing factor alongside Morgan Rielly will help them avoid overtaxing overutilized depth options like Simon Benoit and Philippe Myers.
Atlantic Notes: Tkachuk, Matheson, Carlo, Canadiens
As much as he would have liked to, forward Matthew Tkachuk won’t play in the Winter Classic tomorrow for the Florida Panthers. The Panthers announced the news earlier today from team reporter Jameson Olive.
Still, it shouldn’t be too much longer for the two-time Stanley Cup champion. Tkachuk has been working his way back from a groin injury for the first half of the 2025-26 campaign, and has been skating in a non-contact jersey for the last handful of practices.
Although it won’t come in the Winter Classic, the return of Tkachuk will be a major boost to the defending Stanley Cup champions. Despite being outpaced by the red-hot Buffalo Sabres in the last few days, the Panthers are only one point back of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. Returning a player of Tkachuk’s caliber, who’s scored 88 goals and 254 points in 211 regular-season contests, should help them recoup some lost ground in the standings.
Other updates from the Atlantic Division:
- The Montreal Canadiens have a little bit of a different look to their defensive core tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes. Before the game, the Canadiens announced that defenseman Mike Matheson would miss the game due to an upper-body injury, and rookie Adam Engstrom would take his spot in the lineup. Matheson’s injury has caused some controversy, as it’s likely linked to being elbowed by Panthers forward Brad Marchand in yesterday’s overtime win. Marchand was penalized on the play, but didn’t receive any supplemental discipline.
- Although they’ve lost veteran defenseman Chris Tanev for the foreseeable future, the Toronto Maple Leafs may have a different right-handed defenseman return this weekend. Earlier today, Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun highlighted in his article that Brandon Carlo could be activated from the injured reserve for Saturday’s game against the New York Islanders. Carlo, in his first full season with the Maple Leafs, has been largely disappointing this year, registering two assists in 18 games while being injured for much of the year due to lower-body concerns.
- Back in Montreal, Sportsnet’s Eric Engels provided a few injury updates on Kirby Dach and Kaiden Guhle. Engels suggested that the Canadiens are remaining cautious with Dach, who has missed the last six weeks with a fractured foot. He’s expected to return soon, but could need additional time before he’s fully ready to return. Meanwhile, Engels stated that the team is far more optimistic about Guhle, who could return when Montreal returns from their current road trip, which would be on January 7th against the Calgary Flames.
Atlantic Notes: Lightning, Carlo, Montembeault, Beckman
A pair of core players for the Lightning appear to be close to making their returns from injury. Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times notes (Twitter links) that winger Brandon Hagel and defenseman Erik Cernak took part in today’s morning skate. Hagel has missed nearly two weeks due to an upper-body injury sustained against Florida, taking one of Tampa Bay’s top scorers out of the lineup as he has 18 goals and 13 assists in 32 games. Head coach Jon Cooper relayed (via Encina) that Hagel is now in the day-to-day range. Cernak, meanwhile, has missed a little more than a month due to an undisclosed injury that wasn’t the same as the lower-body issue that briefly kept him out in November. He has four assists, 43 blocks, and 40 hits in 19 games so far this season. Both players are on IR (Cernak is on LTIR, more specifically) so roster spots will need to be freed up before they can be put back onto the active roster.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- Maple Leafs defenseman Brandon Carlo took part in Toronto’s morning skate today as he works his way back from foot surgery, relays David Alter of The Hockey News. The 29-year-old has missed the last six weeks with what was originally termed as a maintenance thing but he wound up having a procedure done earlier this month. Carlo is in his first full season with Toronto and has two assists and 34 blocked shots in 18 games while averaging just over 20 minutes per game of playing time. While he’s back skating, there remains no firm timetable for a return to the lineup.
- As expected, the Canadiens announced (Twitter link) have recalled goaltender Sam Montembeault from his conditioning stint. The 29-year-old has struggled this season, posting a 3.65 GAA with a .857 SV% in 15 appearances, resulting in a demotion to third-string status after Jacob Fowler was recalled. Montembeault played in two games while on assignment, turning aside 47 of 52 shots in a pair of losses to Cleveland.
- Senators prospect Lucas Beckman has been traded in the QMJHL as Chicoutimi announced that they’ve acquired him from Baie-Comeau for a pair of players and two draft picks. The goaltender was a fourth-round pick back in June, going 97th overall. In 23 games with the Drakkar this season, he has a 3.29 GAA along with a .905 SV%, numbers that are a considerable step back from 2024-25 when he was on more of a contending team. Ottawa holds Beckman’s signing rights until June 1, 2027.
Maple Leafs Notes: Berube, Lalonde, Salary
After the Toronto Maple Leafs fired assistant coach Marc Savard on Monday, many began to speculate that head coach Craig Berube may be on the chopping block as well. Speaking with the media yesterday, Maple Leafs General Manager Brad Treliving put those rumors to bed.
According to TSN’s Chris Johnston, when asked about Berube’s future in Toronto, Treliving said, “I want to make it clear. I support Craig fully.” Still, knowing the pressure the Maple Leafs face consistently, things can change relatively quickly in Toronto. Berube is 68-41-9 (61.4% win percentage) as the Maple Leafs’ head coach, but the team has fallen five points back of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference and is in 23rd place in the league standings.
If Berube stays, it won’t be because the Maple Leafs didn’t have any external options, either. The recent head coach of the Dallas Stars, Peter DeBoer, is still seeking a new job and may jump at the chance to guide an Original Six franchise. Since the 2011-12 season, with four different teams, DeBoer has coached his team to eight Conference Final appearances and two in the Stanley Cup Final. However, he has yet to coach a team to the sport’s highest glory.
Additional notes from the Maple Leafs:
- Now that Savard has exited the organization, the Maple Leafs needed a coach to take over the team’s power play, which is last in the league with a 13.04% success rate. Reporting from Treliving’s media availability, Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun shared that Derek Lalonde will be tasked with that duty. During his time as head coach of the Detroit Red Wings, the team was one of the best with the man advantage, though much of that rested on the shoulders of Lalonde’s assistant coach at the time, Alex Tanguay.
- When it comes to how the team will approach the other half of the regular season, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period suggested that the Maple Leafs could look to move out some money. Pagnotta listed players such as Max Domi, Brandon Carlo, and Matias Maccelli as obvious candidates to be on the move. Still, given that Treliving shared that the team was not ready to punt on the 2025-26 campaign, it’s unlikely that the Maple Leafs are going to make many subtractions from their roster.
Maple Leafs’ Brandon Carlo Out Another Month
Maple Leafs defenseman Brandon Carlo underwent foot surgery last week and will be out of the lineup for at least another month, head coach Craig Berube told reporters following last night’s loss to the Sharks (via Luke Fox of Sportsnet). He’s already been out nearly a month after sustaining the injury against the Kings on Nov. 13, so it’ll be around an eight-week absence for the righty when all is said and done.
Toronto’s defense will remain in structural disarray for a while yet. They’ve been without their top two right-shot options, Carlo and Chris Tanev, for the past month. Tanev saw a specialist earlier this week regarding his upper-body injury but is now seeking a second opinion after that meeting, per Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun. He continues to skate with the team in a no-contact jersey, but it doesn’t appear his return is on the horizon, either.
Potentially adding to the pile of injuries is Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who left last night’s overtime defeat in the third period after falling awkwardly on his left leg (video via Sportsnet). It’s not as bad as it looked, though, and he’ll be back at practice tomorrow before making a determination on his availability for that night’s game against the Oilers, per Hornby.
Carlo, acquired from the Bruins at last year’s trade deadline to serve as a shutdown anchor for Morgan Rielly at even strength and play a penalty-killing role, had averaged 20:04 of ice time through the first 18 games of the season before exiting the lineup. He managed two assists with a +2 rating but didn’t have the two-way impact they hoped for, controlling just 42.8% of shot attempts and 45.5% of expected goals at 5-on-5.
The Leafs claimed veteran righty Troy Stecher off waivers from the Oilers last month after Carlo got hurt. With four points and a +8 rating in 11 appearances, the 31-year-old has been as good a stopgap option as they could’ve hoped for.
Leafs’ Brandon Carlo Likely To Undergo Surgery, Out Indefinitely
The Maple Leafs will be without defenseman Brandon Carlo for a good chunk of the season. After telling reporters yesterday that Carlo had a setback in his recovery from a lower-body injury and was meeting a specialist, head coach Craig Berube said today that the righty will need surgery and will be out “an extended period of time” (via David Alter of The Hockey News).
Carlo has already missed seven games due to the injury he sustained against the Kings on Nov. 13. It’s still unclear what play caused it; he didn’t appear to miss a shift. It wouldn’t be shocking if Carlo had been playing through something and aggravated it. The 6’5″ shutdown rearguard has been noticeably less involved in the play than normal this season, averaging a career-low 0.67 hits per game. That’s a 56% decrease from his career average of 1.51.
Physicality and defensive smarts are where Carlo makes his money, and they’re why the Maple Leafs parted ways with a steep package – including Fraser Minten and this year’s first-round pick – to acquire him from the Bruins at last season’s trade deadline. Carlo’s contract situation was a significant factor as to why Toronto paid a premium. Not only was he not a rental – he remains under contract through 2026-27 – but Boston retained 15% of his cap hit to bring it down to $3.485MM for the Leafs. That’s a great price tag for someone Toronto imagined would be consistently deployed as a top-four defender as an anchor for Morgan Rielly.
Unfortunately, the Reilly-Carlo experiment has largely fallen flat. The duo was outscored 10-9 in last year’s postseason. This year, they’re allowing 3.11 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, the most of any Toronto defensive pair. Carlo’s -4.2% relative Corsi share is the third-worst figure of his career. And while he’s not known or relied upon for offense, his two assists through 18 games are also a slightly lower pace than what he usually posts.
With another year left on his contract at an already-reduced cap hit, the struggling Maple Leafs might have looked to flip Carlo as they look to retool their depth on the fly, particularly in the name of improving their defensive structure. Only the Sharks have allowed more shots per game this season than Toronto’s 31.4. With fellow top-four righty Chris Tanev also on the shelf as he rehabs a suspected concussion, keeping him out indefinitely, their depth has been tested.
If the Leafs’ focus is still on getting significantly ahead of the .500 mark for the first time this season and putting themselves back in the playoff conversation, finding a higher-profile stopgap on the right side than recent waiver claim Troy Stecher needs to be a priority – especially if Carlo’s return timeline is now months, not weeks.