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J.T. Miller

NHL Rules On Conditional Draft Picks

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With both the regular season and playoffs up in the air for quite some time, there had been many questions about conditional draft picks and how they might be conveyed. However, now with the establishment of a 24-team playoff format, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun (subscription required) reports that the league has also clarified how conditional picks will change hands, meaning teams will have to reach the round of 16 in order to be considered a ’playoff team.’ The NHL doesn’t view the qualifying round as playoff hockey.

“More specifically, for Trade condition purposes, a Club will not be deemed to have qualified for the Playoffs unless or until they have progressed into the Round of 16, and ‘Playoff Games/Rounds’ will only include the games/rounds played in the Round of 16 or later. We believe this interpretation will best reflect the intentions of the parties at the time of the Trade,” the league stipulated.

There are several trades that fall into this category with the Vancouver Canucks pick being at the heart of the issue. The Canucks traded their 2020 first-round pick to Tampa Bay for J.T. Miller, conditional on the Canucks making the playoffs. That pick, in the meantime, was traded to New Jersey for Blake Coleman. With Vancouver in the 24-team playoff format, many believed that the Devils already had the Canucks’ first-round pick. However, this ruling indicates that the Canucks would have to win their play-in game against the Minnesota Wild first and reach the round of 16 before that picks transfers. If Vancouver loses in the first round, then they keep the lottery pick and will send a unconditional first-rounder in 2021 to New Jersey.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Minnesota Wild are in a similar situation with the first-round pick that was sent from Pittsburgh to Minnesota for Jason Zucker (assuming the Penguins got into the playoffs). However, while that pick looked to be a lock, a play-in loss to the Montreal Canadiens would allow the Penguins to keep the pick and send an unconditional one in 2021, which Pittsburgh would be likely to do if they can get a lottery pick in a strong draft.

There are still a few conditional trades that the NHL will have to look deeper into, including the Edmonton/Calgary swap of Milan Lucic and James Neal as well as the New Jersey-Carolina swap of Sami Vatanen, which deals with a conditional fourth-round pick if Vatanen played in five regular season games for Carolina, which he didn’t do. However, the play-in games could constitute regular season games, depending on how the league rules on it.

Stretch Run Storylines: Vancouver Canucks

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues (something the league remains hopeful of doing), there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Vancouver.

The Canucks have been a team trying to pry their way into the playoffs after several years of rebuilding. The team even took that next step, trading their first-round pick last offseason to Tampa Bay in exchange for goal-scoring forward J.T. Miller, a deal that paid off as he leads the team in scoring with 72 points and is tied for the team lead in goals with 27. The team has been in the playoff race all season, but might have some challenges in the months ahead.

Playoff Race

The Canucks have 78 points at this point in the season and currently, based on points percentage, they would be the first wildcard team if the season ended today. That’s great news, but if the regular season resumes and is based on points, the Canucks would be out of the playoffs, meaning they would need to prove they can overcome teams like Nashville and Winnipeg, among others, to squeak into the playoffs.

Vancouver does have the advantage of being a young team that might have a better shot of jumping out quickly like it did when the regular season started and the Canucks dominated the Pacific Division for the first couple months of the season. Players like Quinn Hughes would be playing as if he was a second-year player and should be able to provide even more stability in their back end to help the team gain their way into the playoffs. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who was on LTIR before the suspension of play, is already fully healed from his knee injury, and ready to go — another big plus.

Pending UFAs

The team does have quite a bit offseason work to complete this season. The team has to lock up Markstrom to a long-term deal. The UFA could be one of the bigger names on the goalie market for teams, although he recently told Iain MacIntyre of Sportsnet, that he has no intention of playing for another team and wants to re-sign in Vancouver, which is good news for Canucks fans. The 30-year-old had his best season to date with a 2.75 GAA and a .918 save percentage.

However, the team has other issues, which could be challenging, considering the team is capped out. Barring a compliance buyout that could save them, the Canucks may have to make some significant moves to stay under a cap that likely won’t increase this offseason. The team also must consider contracts for veteran defenseman Chris Tanev as well as trade-deadline acquisition Tyler Toffoli, who looked exceptional in 10 games, scoring six goals and 10 points in a Vancouver uniform. That doesn’t even consider the team’s RFAs for next season, including Jake Virtanen, Adam Gaudette, Troy Stecher and Tyler Motte.

Hughes For Calder?

Hughes will have chance to walk away from the offseason with some hardware as it looks more and more like a two-person race for the Calder Trophy, for the best rookie. While many feel that Cale Makar was the runaway leader for the trophy, the play of Hughes in the second-half of the season has been exceptional and could be enough to vault himself past Makar in the running. Hughes did win our PHR poll in March by quite a landslide.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Three Stars, Samuelsson, Kreider

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The NHL has released their Three Stars for last week, and unsurprisingly Leon Draisaitl lands on top. The Edmonton Oilers superstar now leads the entire league in scoring and has actually been on fire since being separated from Connor McDavid. Draisaitl has 22 points in the 11 games away from McDavid, finally finding some wing help in the form of Kailer Yamamoto.

Second star Steven Stamkos won’t turn many heads after appearing in these spots many times before, but the same can’t be said about J.T. Miller who takes home the third star. Miller has found a new level of production with the Vancouver Canucks and is already just a few goals and points short of his career-highs.

  • Ulf Samuelsson had been serving as a pro scout for the Seattle expansion franchise, but will leave the organization to take a job as head coach of Leksands IF in the SHL. That’s the team Samuelsson played for before joining the NHL back in 1984 for a long, productive career.
  • Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) examined several potential trade scenarios for the deadline, giving his take on what it would take to acquire some of the top rentals. Chris Kreider is the first name he writes on, reporting that eight teams have told the New York Rangers that “they’ve got Kreider at the top of their wish list.” LeBrun’s speculative trade will turn a lot of heads, as he suggests a package similar to the one that New York received for Kevin Hayes last year.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $79,773,331 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Mikhail Sergachev (one year, $894K)
F Alexander Volkov (one year, $864K)
F Mitchell Stephens (one year, $833K)
F Anthony Cirelli (one year, $728K)
F Mathieu Joseph (one year, $728K)
D Erik Cernak (one year, $698K)

Potential Bonuses

Sergachev: $850K
Cirelli: $183K
Joseph: $183K
Cernak: $148K

The Tampa Bay Lightning have done exceedingly well with their young players as they always seem to have key contributors filling out their roster who are on low-cost salaries. Unfortunately for the team all of those entry-level contracts will be expiring after this season. However, for a team that is fighting for a Stanley Cup title, the Lightning should be happy to have several of these players around for this year.

At the top of the list is Sergachev, who came over in the Jonathan Drouin trade a couple of seasons ago. Sergachev has improved greatly, but is still battling for a top-four role, one which he may win this season as he continues to develop his skills. The 21-year-old already has 15 goals and 72 points over two seasons, but spent most of his time last year as a third-line option for Tampa Bay. The team hopes he can win a spot on the first line and earn some power play time to allow his offensive skills to kick in for the Lightning. Another strong season could force Tampa Bay to pay up significantly for him. The team also got some impressive play from Cernak last season who came up and found a permanent home with his physical play.

Cirelli and Joseph have made an impact for Tampa Bay as well. After an solid stint back in 2017-18, Cirelli had a breakout season, scoring 19 goals and 39 points last season and could take another step up this season with J.T. Miller gone. Joseph surprised quite a few when he made the team last year out of training camp, posting 13 goals and 26 points in a third-line role most of the time. The opportunities may continue to increase for the 22-year-old who has showed a hard-working mentality as well as solid skill.

Both Stephens and Volkov are in their last year of their entry-level contract, but both could see time up with the Lightning at some point this season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Mike Condon ($2.4MM, UFA — buried at $1.33MM)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)
G Louis Domingue ($1.15MM, UFA) — buried at $75K)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Danick Martel ($700K, RFA)
D Luke Schenn ($700K, UFA)

In their pursuit of a Stanley Cup, the team went out and acquired some veteran players to help the team for this year. They signed Shattenkirk immediately after being bought out from the New York Rangers to give the team a key veteran after they lost Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi in the offseason. The team hopes Shattenkirk can find his game and stay healthy this year and be able to provide quality minutes. They also hope Schenn can provide solid depth and physicality at the bottom of their lineup. On offense, the team also went out and signed Maroon to add some grit to their fourth line after the team lost Ryan Callahan to injury. Callahan was very productive in his time with the Lightning, but injuries derailed his last couple of years.

To unload the final year of Callahan’s contract, the Lightning traded him to Ottawa and were forced to accept Condon, who the team has already buried in the minors to give the team more cap flexibility. Domingue has been buried in the AHL as well.

Two Years Remaining

D Braydon Coburn ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Cedric Paquette ($1.65MM, UFA)
G Curtis McElhinney ($1.3MM, UFA)
D Luke Witkowski ($700K, UFA)

Despite a solid backup in Domingue, the Lightning surprised quite a few people when they inked McElhinney to a two-year deal, plucking him away from a number of interested teams. The 36-year-old veteran had an impressive season after being claimed by Carolina at the beginning of last season. McElhinney appeared in 33 games, picking up 20 wins with a 2.58 GAA and a .912 save percentage. The hope is the veteran will provide some extra insurance and maybe take some of the workload off the starter this season.

The team also has high hopes that bringing back Coburn as well as a gritty multi-versatile player like Witkowski will give Tampa Bay some much needed depth on their blueline.

Three Years Remaining

F Brayden Point ($6.75MM, RFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)

The Lightning has done exactly what it wants to do with Point, which was get him signed to a three-year bridge deal, something the team does with all its players before locking them up to long-term deals. Now the team has three more years to evaluate him before they have to lock him up to a long-term deal. The deal is actually quite reasonable, considering how much the center has excelled in each of his three seasons. Point’s rookie season was solid with 18 goals, but that number increased to a 32-goal campaign in 2017-18 and he followed that up with a 41-goal, 92-point season last year, making him one of the top young forwards in the game. Regardless, the team was able to sign him for a reasonable cost, giving the Lightning another strong presence at a discounted rate.

On the other hand, Palat may be the opposite of Point. Having struggled with injuries the past couple of seasons, the 28-year-old has appeared in just 120 out of 164 games over the past two seasons and scored a disappointing eight goals in 64 games last year as he’s slipped to a third-line role after a promising 23-goal rookie season back in 2013-14. Since then he’s scored in the teens, but has seen those numbers dip even further with his injury history. Unfortunately, at $5.3MM, the team hopes he can get healthy and rebound as he would be a hard player to find a trade partner for.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM through 2023-24)
D Victor Hedman ($7.88MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM through 2025-26)
F Yanni Gourde ($5.17MM through 2024-25)
F Tyler Johnson ($5MM through 2023-24)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM through 2022-23)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($3.5MM in 2019-20; $9.5MM through 2027-28)

The team has done a phenomenal job of signing their top talent. Kucherov is arguably one of the top three players in the league and is now just starting his eight-year contract at a reasonable $9.5MM. The 26-year-old scored 41 goals and 128 points to win the Hart Memorial Trophy, Art Ross Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award and should be one of the greats for the Lightning for a long time. Stamkos also continues to put up big numbers for someone whose $8.5MM deal looks pretty good. He potted 45 goals last season and a career-high 98 points, which gives Tampa Bay an impressive one-two punch, which doesn’t even include Point.

The Lightning also has quite a bit tied up into their top two defensemen in Hedman and McDonagh. Hedman is one of the top defensemen in the league, only a year removed from winning the Norris Trophy in 2017-18. He posted an impressive 12 goals and 54 points last season and remains in his prime. It’s too early to see how he will fare as he gets older as his contract will run through his age-34 season. But by the time Hedman truly slows down, there shouldn’t be that much time remaining on his deal. As for McDonagh, the team’s second-best defenseman still posted solid numbers, nine goals and 46 points. However, he is two years older than Hedman and has a seventh year remaining on his contract, meaning he’ll be 37 in his final season, which suggests that his contract could become an issue even in just a few years.

As for Gourde, Johnson and Killorn, the team hopes that with the salary cap likely rising over the next few years, those role players’ deals will still look good, if not very good as they age. All have become solid contributors as middle-six players and hopefully will give the team good value over the next four or five years.

Buyouts

D Matt Carle (1.83MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Point
Worst Value: Palat

Looking Ahead

The job that Steve Yzerman has done to get the franchise to this point, which might be one of the most impressive organizations that have been built, is impressive and the hope that Julien BriseBois will continue that success in Tampa Bay. The team had an amazing regular season a year ago, but a quick exit in the playoffs left many to wonder whether the team is as good as many think. However, BriseBois has done a good job bringing in some more veterans as well as some grit in hopes that this offensive team doesn’t get pushed around too much this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pacific Notes: Miller, Gaudette, McLeod

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The Vancouver Canucks paid a heavy price this summer when it went out and traded their 2020 first-round pick to Tampa Bay to acquire forward J.T. Miller. Despite a disappointing season with the Lightning last year in which he scored just 13 goals and 47 points, Vancouver believes they are getting a 20-goal, 50-point player, who can immediately step into the Canucks’ top-six.

One thing that many people like about Miller is the fact that he is a versatile forward, who can play any position on the forward line. And at reasonable cost at $5.25MM over the next four years, he should provide solid value for a team that needs to score goals. However, while most people have Miller penciled in as a winger on one of those top two lines, The Athletic’s Harman Dayal (subscription required) writes that the team should instead consider moving him back to center and placing him on the third line in hopes of stabilizing a line that has been a nightmare for several years now.

Of course trading a first-round pick for what could be a third-line center might not look good for general manager Jim Benning. However, Dayal cites that Miller has solid defensive skills that would make him a solid full-time center and the entire goal is to make the team better and the team might be better off with Miller at center and a lesser winger moving up in the lineup. It also might leave the team better off with a deeper and more talented balance on all three lines, as opposed to putting all their talent in the top two lines.

  • Sticking with the Canucks, the Province’s Ben Kuzma writes that no matter how you look at it, Vancouver center Adam Gaudette just doesn’t have much of a chance to make the team out of training camp. The 22-year-old Gaudette played 56 games for Vancouver last year, but with a loaded roster and the fact that he is waiver-exempt, the math just doesn’t work out for Gaudette staying in the NHL when the season starts. It’s far more likely that the team will send the former Hobey Baker award winner to Utica in the AHL to start the season. He only played 14 games there last year as he spent most of his first professional season learning on the fly as the team’s No. 3 center. However, with more depth in hand, Kuzma writes that the team might be able to develop his skills even better in Utica. He scored five goals and 11 points in the 14 games he played with the Comets last year.
  • Despite continued impressive play by 2018 second-round pick Ryan McLeod in rookie camp so far and considering that McLeod came close to breaking camp with Edmonton last year, the team is very high on his development and potentially making the team this year. However, the Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins writes that despite McLeod’s impressive play, the recent signing of Riley Sheahan almost guarantees that McLeod will return to juniors this year. Regardless, Leavins believes have their future No. 3 center, starting next season.

 

 

Atlantic Notes: Backes, Kronwall, Reinhart, Zaitsev

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With the NHL salary cap set Saturday at $81.5MM for the 2019-20 season, cap room has become a premium. That became just as apparent Saturday when teams began unloading some of their expensive contracts, including Nashville’s P.K. Subban (to New Jersey), Tampa Bay’s J.T. Miller (to Vancouver) and Toronto’s Patrick Marleau (to Carolina). The latter trade of Marleau to the Hurricanes perhaps was the most interesting as Toronto also had to fork over a 2020 first-round pick as part of the package to unload Marleau’s $6.25MM contract.

That deal may become a precedent for teams hoping to move out a bad contract. In fact, because of that trade, The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa (subscription required) suggests that the Boston Bruins will likely have to keep forward David Backes on the roster for at least another year. The Bruins still owe $6MM to the 35-year-old Backes for another two seasons, which isn’t helping the team as they must re-sign a number of key free agents, including restricted free agents Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Danton Heinen and also wouldn’t mind keeping unrestricted free agents Marcus Johansson and Noel Acciari. Backes has struggled the last couple of seasons, but his numbers really fell off this season as he posted just seven goals and 20 points in 70 games and has fallen into a bottom-six role.

While the team wouldn’t mind unloading that contract, Shinzawa writes that the Marleau deal, which has a similar number to Backes’ contract, except for one more year, would almost guarantee cost the Bruins a first-round pick (and possibly more) to unload, which they are unlikely willing to do.

  • The Detroit Free-Press’ Helene St. James reports that the Detroit Red Wings and general manager Steve Yzerman won’t change their offseason plan as they wait for defenseman Niklas Kronwall to make a decision on whether he wants to return for a 16th season. The veteran may not make a decision until late in the offseason. One reason to suggest that the 38-year-old could return is that he is 47 games shy of having played 1,000 games. The long-time Red Wings blueliner still fared well last year, scoring three goals and 27 points in 79 games.
  • The Athletic’s John Vogl writes that while the Buffalo Sabres need a second-line center to give Casey Mittelstadt time to adjust to the NHL, general manager Jason Botterill said that it is unlikely that Sam Reinhart will be moving there. Reinhart, originally drafted as a center when he was the second-overall pick in 2014, saw his career take off when the team moved him to the right wing position two seasons ago. Since then, he’s tallied 47 goals in those two years. “Look, it’s always a possibility there,” said Botterill. “You have to be open to it and we’ll see how things go with Ralph (Krueger) with that discussion, but I also think in the last year or so, he’s excelled on the wing and I think he’s in a position where he can drive a line from the wing.”
  • The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel reports that Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas said Saturday that there is nothing new on the trade front when it comes to moving defenseman Nikita Zaitsev. The team has made it clear to other teams they aren’t just going to use him as a salary dump. “We’re willing to try to accommodate him and work with him, but we need a similar player back,” Dubas said. “We don’t have the depth on D and we don’t want to rush our prospects.”

NHL Sets Salary Cap at $81.5MM for 2019-20

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The NHL and NHLPA have made it official, as TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the NHL salary cap for 2019-20 will be $81.5MM, as many had recently projected with the salary floor being set at $60.2MM.

That isn’t good news for teams that are at or near the cap as many teams had hoped that the cap might be closer to $83MM like it was projected several weeks ago. However, recently rumors had been rumbling that the number would be closer to $82MM and potentially as low as $81.5MM, which is what it ended up being, which is a worst-case scenario for teams hoping for that extra space to maneuver.

That could prompt more teams that need to open up cap space to make cost-cutting moves. The league has seen some of that already today with the Nashville Predators unloading the $9MM contract of defenseman P.K. Subban in order to free up space to extend defenseman Roman Josi and potentially sign a free-agent center such as Matt Duchene in the coming week. The Toronto Maple Leafs sent a future first-rounder to Carolina also today in order to unload the final year of Patrick Marleau and his $6.25MM contract. The Tampa Bay Lightning also unloaded J.T. Miller’s $5.25MM contract that still has four more years on it for a future first-rounder as well. Other teams that are in trouble and could be making similar cap-saving moves include the Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.

The announcement, however, could be big news for teams with plenty of cap space to sell. The Devils acquired a top-four defenseman for a very little return, while Vancouver added a top-six forward in Miller. There are six teams underneath the ceiling of $60.2MM, including the Philadelphia Flyers, Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators and the Colorado Avalanche. Several of those team have significant free agents to sign, however, including Winnipeg, Philadelphia and Colorado, but there are many teams that could take advantage, now more than ever, of some of the teams who have already capped themselves out. In fact, Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen was thrilled at the cap number.

“It doesn’t affect us. I like it,” Kekalainen said (via NHL.com’s Dan Rosen). “It’s going to squeeze some teams some more. … They’re going to have to solve their problems and maybe we can be a solution.”

Vancouver Canucks Acquire Tampa Bay’s J.T. Miller

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With salary dumps starting off the day after both Patrick Marleau and P.K. Subban were traded earlier, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the Vancouver Canucks are closing in on a deal to acquire forward J.T. Miller and the four years remaining at $5.25MM from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Vancouver trades goaltender Marek Mazanec, a 2019 third-round pick (goaltender Hugo Alnefelt) and a conditional first-round pick in 2020, reports NHL.com’s Dan Rosen. If the Canucks do not make the playoffs, the 2020 first-rounder will be conveyed in 2021.

With plenty of salary cap issues, the Tampa Bay Lightning had to move out some salary, especially with restricted Brayden Point expected to get a big raise this summer. Miller seemed to make the most sense as the forward struggled last season in his first full year with the Lightning. After posting more than 20 goals for three straight years, Miller saw his goal-scoring numbers drop to just 13 last season. With a no-trade clause kicking in on July 1, the team had to make a move sooner rather than later.

For Vancouver, Miller should provide some much needed offense as Miller can play all three positions and still is just 26 years old and should find a role somewhere in the team’s top six. If he continues to struggle like he did last year, he could always take over the third-line center duties. The Canucks have the cap space to take in the deal, but Miller’s four year’s at $5.25MM is pretty reasonable had the team tried to land a player of Miller’s success on the free-agent market.

It wasn’t a long stay for Miller, who the team acquired as part of the Ryan McDonagh trade back at the trade deadline in 2018. He looked sharp for the team’s stretch run that year, tallying 10 goals and 18 points in 19 games. The team then signed him to a five-year, $26.25MM contract last offseason, but now decided to move on from him. The team got solid value for him as they expect to get either the team’s 2020 first-rounder (assuming the Canucks make the playoffs) or the team’s 2021 first-rounder. They also added a third-round pick in this year’s draft, while also getting Mazanec. While it looks like it would fill their hole in the net in Syracuse, the team only picked up Mazanec’s rights as he has already signed a contract in the Czech League for two years. The team already lost both of Syracuse’s goaltenders from last year as Eddie Pasquale has already signed with Barys Nur-Sultan in the KHL, while they traded Connor Ingram to Tampa Bay for a future seventh-round pick.

Why Tampa Bay’s Defense Will Look Much Different Next Season

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While recency bias has hockey fans looking back on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s season as a failure due to their shocking early playoff exit, in reality the team was historically good, winning 62 games en route to 128 points and an easy President’s Trophy win. In general, most teams who enjoy that level of success would look to change as little as possible, even with the postseason disappointment. Last year’s Stanley Cup-winning Washington Capitals have become the standard for staying the course and, by all accounts, the Lightning expect to follow in their footsteps and avoid the temptation to make sweeping changes.

However, it’s not that simple. As Joe Smith of The Athletic writes, the Bolts will have to undergo a major makeover on their blue line. Tampa Bay is already committed to over $73MM for 16 players next season. That list includes top defensemen Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, as well as most core forwards like Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, J.T. Miller, and Yanni Gourde and starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, it does not include half of the eight defensemen used regularly by the Lightning this season: Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Dan Girardi, and Jan Rutta. More importantly, it also doesn’t include sophomore breakout forward Brayden Point. Even with the salary cap expected to climb north of $80MM this off-season, re-signing Point will eat up most of that space and extending fellow RFA forwards Cedric Paquette and Adam Erne will add up as well. Without a considerable cap dump, it would seem re-signing even one of those UFA defensemen, nevertheless most of them, will be incredibly difficult.

So what does Tampa do about this situation? The aforementioned cap dump seems a near certainty, as veteran forward Ryan Callahan is expected to be traded or bought out this summer. A buy out could give the Lightning the wiggle room to re-sign one of the four pending UFA’s, while a trade could either open up cap space or allow the team to bring in a blue liner with a bad contract like Callahan’s. Yet, Callahan alone is not the only move that the Bolts could make before next season. Smith mentions Miller as the easiest forward to trade away, as his trade protection does not kick in until the new league year on July 1st. Johnson, Palat, and Alex Killorn all have full or limited No-Trade Clauses, making them harder to deal, but still expendable regardless. In moving any of those four valuable forwards – or even Point if negotiations reach an impasse – the Bolts would likely be able to land a talented defenseman in return.

Outside of Callahan though, the Lightning do not have to make other trades to form a capable defense. Internally, they already have a promising top-four in veteran stars Hedman and McDonagh and promising young rearguards Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak. AHL standout Cal Foote will also challenge for a job in camp, while the team will almost certainly target a defenseman with the 27th overall pick in the first round this year, who could push for an NHL spot right away if they’re lucky. Moving Callahan, if salary does not come back in return, could enable the team to re-sign Rutta, likely the cheapest option of the four, or perhaps Coburn or Girardi on hometown discounts. It is hard to imagine Stralman being within their price range or any two returning. Yet, affordable options will also exist on the free agent market, as many players may be willing to sign for less for a shot at the Cup in Tampa Bay. Veteran UFA options who could come in under $2MM or so include Michael Del Zotto, Adam McQuaid, Ben Lovejoy, and Roman Polak, among others.

The only certainty when it comes to Tampa’s defense this season is that it will not look the same as it did last year. There is simply no financial way for the team to maintain the depth and balance on the blue line that this unit had, but some savvy moves this off-season could still keep the defense just as strong. How the team handles Point, Callahan, and the free agency and trade markets will be one of the more intriguing story lines this summer and could dictate whether the Bolts are able to follow the Capitals’ model and stay the course toward a championship following postseason disappointment.

Arizona Coyotes To Target Scoring This Off-Season

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The Arizona Coyotes missed out on the postseason this year by a mere four points. While a success overall for the rebuilding club, the Coyotes struggled greatly on offense. The team’s 209 goals for were tied for third-worst in the NHL and their 16.3% power play success rate was sixth-worst. Behind stellar goaltending from Darcy Kuemper and strong team defense, the team largely got the job done, but they need to improve their scoring if they want to take the next step.

It’s thus no surprise that both Richard Morin of Arizona Republic and Craig Morgan of The Athletic write that Arizona will be looking to add a prominent scoring forward this summer. GM John Chayka would seem to agree:

I think to understand what we need to do to improve is pretty simple: We need to score more goals. I think anytime someone’s going through and trying to diagnose what you need to do to take that next step, that’s not the complicated part or complex part. I think what we need to understand and work through is, how do we score more goals? How do we create more offense, while maintaining that fundamental foundation of being a good stingy, defensive team.

Among the top options – albeit unlikely – for the Coyotes on the free agent market would be Columbus Blue Jackets stars Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene, Buffalo Sabres’ standout Jeff Skinner, or any of the New York Islanders’ trio of Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle, and Brock Nelson. All of these forwards are prime talents, but may not be available to Arizona. Both Skinner and Lee are expected to re-sign with their current teams, as could Eberle or Nelson, while Panarin and Duchene are likely outside the Coyotes’ price range. More accessible free agent scorers could include Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, Wayne Simmonds, or Brett Connolly, one or two of which would be a major boost to Arizona’s offense.

Morgan also adds that several cap-strapped teams could be forced to move talented forwards, leaving the Coyotes in places to scoop up valuable players at a discount. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, and Tampa Bay Lightning are all in a tough spot, leaving the likes of Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mathieu Perreault, Ondrej Palat, J.T. Miller, or Alex Killorn possibly up for grabs.

Either by signing or trade, the Coyotes are likely to add a prominent forward or two and are expected to target wingers rather than centers. Arizona will be a team to watch this off-season as they target several of the aforementioned top names.

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