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The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

Rutherford Eyeing Trade Market To Improve Penguins

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Changes are coming in Pittsburgh this off-season, but GM Jim Rutherford is “not even really thinking about free agency right now”. Speaking with Josh Yohe of the Athletic, Rutherford admits that “we won’t really have the cap space to do anything anyway. We’re going to re-sign some of our restricted free agents. And at that point, we’re around the cap.” The Penguins need to re-sign RFA’s Bryan Rust, Riley Sheahan, Daniel Sprong, Jamie Oleksiak and more and even with the expected increase to the salary cap limit will only have $8-12MM maximum to work with. The team could make a couple additional minor moves here and there on the unrestricted free agent market, but Rutherford is correct that team is strapped for the cap space to make any significant signings this summer, at least as things stand now.

As a result, it is the trade market that Rutherford is more interested in. The team has already stated that they don’t plan to buy out any of their current players, but they could look to move them via trade. Atop that list are likely wingers Carl Hagelin and Conor Sheary and defenseman Matt Hunwick. In fact, the blue line appears to be the most likely area for a player to be traded away, as the team enters next season with six veterans under contract and Oleksiak and Frank Corrado as restricted free agents. Rutherford stated to Yohe that defenseman Brian Dumoulin is the most untouchable player on the back end due to his invaluable defensive play, and also expressed his fondness for Oleksiak and Olli Maatta as well. Rutherford said that the front office is optimistic that Kris Letang and Hunwick will perform better next year and were happy with the play of Justin Schultz and Chad Ruhwedel as they made up for Letang’s and Hunwick’s shortcomings respectively this season. However, Rutherford added that his comfort with this group doesn’t mean that won’t make a change.

The goal in making any deal is to improve the depth and youth of the Penguins’ forward corps. This explains why the team was connected to Max Domi recently, before he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens last week. The team is seeking versatility and upside up front and are willing to move substantial assets to get it, but Rutherford wasn’t willing to part with the Alex Galchenyuk-level ask from the Arizona Coyotes for Domi. Rutherford knows that even if he does nothing this summer, Pittsburgh will still be a contender, and as such he does not need to overpay in any trade. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are not going anywhere and Rutherford has already confirmed that he is not shopping Phil Kessel. It’s safe to assume that young winger Jake Guentzel and new acquisition Derick Brassard are also safe. That is already shaping up to be a solid group yet again and the internal addition of younger players should add energy and potential. However, Rutherford’s preference still is to add depth and even more youth if he can to combat the injuries and fatigue that hurt his aging roster last year. Those are the moves he is looking to make this summer and it seems inevitable that at least one such transaction will be made by the expert executive. They may not be three-peat champions, but the Penguins are going to re-stock and be dangerous again in 2018-19.

Pittsburgh Is Not Looking To Trade Phil Kessel

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Following the recent report from The Athletic’s Josh Yohe that Penguins star forward Phil Kessel was upset about his usage in the playoffs and that he and head coach Mike Sullivan were at odds that had led the team to look at moving Kessel, colleague Pierre Lebrun clarified the situation after speaking with Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford. LeBrun reports that Rutherford feels the rumors of dissension in the locker room have been “blown out of proportion”. If this sounds familiar, it is because Rutherford responded to Kessel rumors similarly last summer and, of course, he was not traded. It appears to again be a topic that is inflated by the media more than it is grounded in reality.

Rutherford tells Lebrun that both he and Sullivan understand that it is Kessel’s preference to play with Evgeni Malkin, but defends his coach, saying “there’s times where they play together, when they’re both really going, and there’s times when they don’t… (Sullivan) believes balance throughout the lineup is the best way to win, and we won two Cups that way”. He continues that “for someone to suggest it’s an issue within our team, that can’t be taken care of or resolved, I don’t believe that’s accurate… I don’t feel that we have to trade Phil Kessel.”

If there is no discourse, why would the Penguins trade Kessel? Yes, there are salary cap concerns, but some of those could be eliminated by the estimated significant cap increase, while others could be assisted by shipping out a less-crucial player like Carl Hagelin or Matt Hunwick. After all, Kessel’s 92 points this season did finish tied for seventh in the league in scoring – ahead of Sidney Crosby – and he was among the league’s best in goals, assists, and power play production. At a reduced cap hit courtesy of the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Penguins would much rather keep Kessel and his enormous output rather than try to find a fair return for him. If not for the rumored rift between he and Sullivan, there is little reason they would rush to deal him away. It appears that we can close the book on this hypothetical, at least until next off-season.

Snapshots: Penguins, Wild, Candella

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The Pittsburgh Penguins will face the Washington Capitals in round two once again, but will open the series without two key forwards. Evgeni Malkin and Carl Hagelin have both already been ruled out for game 1, with the latter not even making the trip to Washington with the team.

This is the exact reason that the Penguins went out and added players like Derick Brassard and Riley Sheahan during the year, strengthening their squad down the middle for inevitable playoff injuries. Malkin’s absence is especially lucky for the Capitals, who he has dominated throughout his career. In 40 regular season games against Washington Malkin has 18 goals and 57 points, and has registered 19 points in 20 career playoff games between the two.

  • The Minnesota Wild are looking for a new GM, but it’s not one to start a rebuild. With that in mind, Chad Graff of The Athletic (subscription required) examined the potential candidates for the job, even naming a favorite in Paul Fenton. The Nashville Predators assistant GM has been linked to several head jobs over the last few years, and according to Graff even interviewed for the Minnesota job before Fletcher was originally hired.
  • The Vancouver Canucks will likely not sign Cole Candella to an entry-level contract according to Rick Dhaliwal of News 1130. The 20-year old defenseman was selected in the fifth round two years ago, but could end up re-entering the draft should he go unsigned by June 1st. Though he led the Sudbury Wolves blue line in scoring this season with 33 points, he’ll have to look for his next opportunity elsewhere.

Revisiting The January Trade Market

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As front offices around the league call and text trying to find the right fit for their rosters, fans are waiting with bated breath wondering who could be pulling on their favorite sweater in the next few weeks. Will a superstar change hands and take over as the new face of a franchise? Will a veteran finally find his way to the Stanley Cup promised land? The deadline is now less than six weeks away.

We may not have to wait until the very end to answer these questions though, as January has been a busy month for trade action in the past. We’ve already had two moves this year, and several more could be finalized before the calendar turns over. For now, let’s take a look back at the last few years to see what kind of moves are made in the dawn of the new year.

2018:

January 4th: Edmonton acquires Al Montoya from Montreal in exchange for a 2018 conditional fourth-round pick.

January 10th: Chicago acquires Anthony Duclair and Adam Clendening from Arizona for Richard Panik and Laurent Dauphin.

2017:

January 1st: Arizona acquires Mitchell Moroz from Edmonton in exchange for Henrik Samuelsson.

January 11th: Anaheim acquires Jhonas Enroth from Toronto for a 2018 seventh-round pick.

January 13th: Nashville acquires Cody McLeod from Colorado in exchange for Felix Girard.

January 19th: Nashville acquires Andrew O’Brien from Anaheim for Max Gortz.

January 21st: Los Angeles acquires Cameron Schilling from Chicago for Michael Latta.

January 24th: Ottawa acquires Tommy Wingels in exchange for Zack Stortini, Buddy Robinson and a 2017 seventh-round pick.

January 26th: Montreal acquires Nikita Nesterov from Tampa Bay in exchange for Jonathan Racine and a 2017 sixth-round pick.

Obviously 2017 wasn’t filled with the most blockbuster trades in the month of January, but several teams did add small pieces for potential playoff runs. Nesterov didn’t really work out in Montreal, and Wingels couldn’t find his scoring touch in Ottawa.

2016:

January 3rd: Chicago acquires Richard Panik from Toronto in exchange for Jeremy Morin.

January 6th: Los Angeles acquires Vincent Lecavalier and Luke Schenn from Philadelphia in exchange for Jordan Weal and a 2016 third-round pick.

January 6th: Nashville acquires Ryan Johansen from Columbus in exchange for Seth Jones.

January 7th: Montreal acquires Max Friberg from Anaheim in exchange for Dustin Tokarski.

January 8th: Vancouver acquires Emerson Etem from New York in exchange for Nicklas Jensen and a 2017 sixth-round pick.

January 14th: Ottawa acquires Conor Allen from Nashville in exchange for Patrick Mullen.

January 15th: Montreal acquires Victor Bartley and John Scott from Arizona in exchange for Jarred Tinordi and Stefan Fournier.

January 15th: Arizona acquires Victor Bartley from Nashville in exchange for Stefan Elliott.

January 16th: Anaheim acquires David Perron and Adam Clendening from Pittsburgh in exchange for Carl Hagelin.

January 21st: Anaheim acquires Ryan Garbutt from Chicago in exchange for Jiri Sekac.

2016 was a much more active January, with big names like Lecavalier, Johansen and Jones all dealt. While the Nashville-Columbus trade might have had the biggest impact long-term, Pittsburgh’s acquisition of Hagelin was a big part of their Stanley Cup run, as he scored 27 points down the stretch and added another 16 in the playoffs.

There is certainly value to be had in January trades, and it’s clear that teams like Nashville and Anaheim aren’t scared of making an early move. While those two might not be the most watched teams on the trade market this year, don’t rule them out of making tweaks once again.

Penguins Notes: Trade Challenges, Hornqvist, Hagelin

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While it has been reported over the past several weeks that the Penguins have been aggressive in talking trades and that they could try to do something sooner than later, GM Jim Rutherford acknowledged to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that making further changes may not be what the team actually needs at the moment:

“Some of the things that I see, I don’t believe changing player personnel is going to do it. As a group, we have to be more consistent and do what we do best.”

Mackey notes a couple of factors that could work against the Penguins in any trade discussions.  For starters, they have limited trade chips aside from defenseman Ian Cole.  They’re not likely to be willing to part with their pending unrestricted free agents and while they’d likely want to move Carl Hagelin’s contract ($4MM through 2018-19), they’re going to have a hard time finding some takers.  Prospect Daniel Sprong will certainly garner interest but considering how he has fared since being recalled, they’re going to want to hold onto him as well.

The other issue at play will be the salary cap.  As is the case with a lot of contenders, their room to work with is limited; per CapFriendly, they can add a player making just over $2.3MM but that’s only if they wait until trade deadline day to make that move.  Most impact players make considerably more which means that Rutherford may need to be creative if he wants to add someone of consequence to the roster.  Otherwise, they will have to try to turn things around with the personnel they have.

More from Pittsburgh:

  • Also from Mackey’s column, Rutherford confirmed that there “hasn’t been any movement” when it comes to contract extension discussions for winger Patric Hornqvist. The 31-year-old is on pace for his fifth straight 20-goal season which should have him positioned for a raise on his current $4.25MM cap hit.  With more than $60MM committed to 13 players for next season already, the Pens will be in tough to commit to another big-ticket deal without clearing some money off the books for next season.
  • Hagelin finds himself with just seven points (2-5-7) through 43 games, well below his career averages. Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review speculates that fatigue could be a factor as he has played the fourth most games of any player (regular season and playoffs) over the past six seasons.  For his part, Hagelin doesn’t want to use fatigue as a reason for his struggles but has admitted that he has lacked energy at times this year.  It will be interesting to see if Pittsburgh rests him a bit in the second half hoping that doing so will get him going a bit more.

Metropolitan Notes: Bailey, Hagelin, Stephenson

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The New York Islanders may have come out of last night’s performance with a loss, but it definitely didn’t feel like one. For one, the team’s offense, particularly the power play, seems to have hit its stride and the team finds itself putting up solid numbers. A lot of that credit goes to their top line of John Tavares and Anders Lee. However, it’s the third man on that line that deserves quite a bit of credit, according to Newsday’s Arthur Staple, who gives much of the line’s success to Josh Bailey.

Bailey has been the key to the team’s offensive firepower, especially on the power play and has helped fix that power play which started the NHL season at a 0-for-20. The scribe points out that while Tavares and Lee have combined for five of the team’s nine goals, all coming since their Oct. 19th game against the New York Rangers, it is Bailey’s passing work that has made the difference. The 28-year-old winger is among NHL leaders with six power play assists since then and has had nine assists in the last four games, giving him 13 assists this season. In fact, since the start of last year (the 2016-17 season), Bailey has racked up 56 assists and only 10 players in the NHL have more than him, including names like Connor McDavid, Erik Karlsson, Patrick Kane and Niklas Backstrom.

Unfortunately, for the Islanders while that’s great to see him taking that next step, its also another cause for concern as he is in the last year of a five-year, $16.5MM deal. He undoubtedly will expect a raise, likely a significant one and suddenly along with Tavares, the team will have their work cut out for them this offseason.

  • Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazzette writes that Pittsburgh Penguins’ fourth-line wing Carl Hagelin is well aware that his offense needs to step up. The recently scratched wing has struggled this year offensively. While he’s never been an offensive juggernaut, the 29-year-old has struggled with just a goal and an assist in 14 games. Add that to the $4MM the team owes his this year and next year, his struggles even stand out more. Mackey writes that it’s his shooting percentage that has fallen off a cliff since last year. His 4.4 percent shooting percentage is way down from his earlier career averages of 9.4 percent.
  • Mike Vogel of NHL.com writes that the Washington Capitals’ line of Lars Eller, Tom Wilson and Chandler Stephenson is thriving in the three games that they’ve been paired together. Eller and Wilson have played together quite a while, but it has been the addition of Stephenson, who replaced the injured Brett Connolly that has made the difference in the line. The 23-year-old might finally be breaking into Washington’s lineup after only playing in 13 games combined in the last two years. So far, his one goal and two assists in four games looks solid. In the three games, the Eller-Wilson-Stephenson line has posted three goals and eight points, the most of all the Capitals lines. The success of the back-end line is welcome since the top six lines have struggled recently.

 

Money To Move Out In Potential Pittsburgh Trade

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Often lost in the narrative chronicling the Penguins’ need for a third-line center is the fact that money will almost certainly head the other direction in any trade. Currently, Pittsburgh is a respectable $3.82 MM under the cap ceiling, but a few factors should be considered. Firstly, GM Jim Rutherford will almost surely allot at least $1 MM in space to acquire necessary rentals at the trade deadline. Second, his defensive and center depth is rather weak overall, so any move would likely not be the last before a post-season pursuit. Third, and perhaps most important, multiple contracts on the horizon will force uncomfortable decisions on wing and top-four defense.

With Matt Cullen departing for Minnesota, the Penguins’ third best center is Carter Rowney, just one season removed from AHL plug duty. Zach Aston-Reese could fill in temporarily, but it’s not ideal for his first professional season. The teams needs an upper-echelon third center option, and available options are supremely limited league-wide. Rutherford claimed to have half a dozen options in July, but with the summer expiring the options are far fewer. Although Rutherford is playing his cards close to his chest, it’s nearly inconceivable that the Penguins go into the new year without greater certainty at that position. A move needs to be made.

On defense, the team will need to determine the future of multiple players. It’s a fair assumption that the team will bank on the improved health of Norris-capable Kris Letang, for better or worse. Justin Schultz is also safe, as is the dependable Brian Dumoulin. In that fourth position, will the Pens re-sign impending UFA Ian Cole, or will his shot-blocking mentality start to show its toll? Is Olli Maatta worth $4.083 MM on a cash strapped team? Will Derrick Pouliot finally clean up his turnovers and make an impact in the Steel City and make either expendable? If Maatta’s skating doesn’t substantially improve, it’s a safe bet his contract will be the one off-loaded in any transaction, regardless of potential and upside.

On offense, the team will also need to make painful judgments. Patric Hornqvist is entering his final year of his contract, and at 31 years old, how will his body hold up multiple seasons into a new contract? Would Bryan Rust be able to replace his intangibles and hard-nosed offense at a fraction of the cost? His internal value is incredibly high, but he’s been relegated to a third-line role for the foreseeable future. Additionally, how devoted is Pittsburgh to the Phil Kessel model? It seems incredibly far-fetched that the team might consider moving Kessel, and they would undoubtedly receive a lesser player in any trade. Still, his $6.8 MM is a strain on the overall forward structure. With Jake Guentzel looking to land a substantial raise in two seasons, Kessel may not be entirely untouchable. Finally, could an accessory piece be moved off the roster as a throw-in for a potential elite third-line center? Impending RFA Scott Wilson isn’t the most glamorous of names, but he could easily earn decent money on his next contract and provide depth scoring for a re-building team. Carl Hagelin’s $4 MM was well above his current rate of production, and his blistering speed could be a tempting add for any squad.

In the final evaluation, Pittsburgh will almost certainly part with a roster player if they are to land a significant piece at the 3rd-line center position. Maatta seems most likely, and has for some time, but the selling teams will have a definite upper-hand in all negotiations, and the money complicates matters. The team has shown time and again it is willing to part with high-end draft picks, but any impending deal will necessarily be more intricate, considering the dearth of the organization’s prospect pool and other contributing factors.

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

With the Penguins up two games to zero in the Stanley Cup Finals, the team’s success under the guidance of GM Jim Rutherford cannot be understated. Potential back-to-back championships following a long list of playoff disappointments and identity crises would all but erase the sting of many poor management decisions under former GM Ray Shero.

After the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the team has not looked back in the slightest offensively. They sat out and relished their summer last off-season with minimal movement, but this year Rutherford has decisions to make. Although the makeup of the team will surely be different come October, there are many options to be considered.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Sidney Crosby (NMC), Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Phil Kessel (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, Josh Archibald (RFA), Oskar Sundqvist (RFA), Jean-Sebastien Dea (RFA)

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin (RFA), Derrick Pouliot (RFA), Justin Schultz (RFA), Frank Corrado (RFA), Tim Erixon (RFA), Stuart Percy (RFA)

Goalies:

Marc-Andre Fleury (NMC), Matt Murray

Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney, Tristan Jarry, Zach Aston-Reese, Thomas DiPauli, Teddy Blueger, Dominik Simon,  Jeff Taylor, Ethan Prow, Lukas Bengtsson, Sean Maguire

Key Decisions

To get the elephant in the room cleared aside, it seems a foregone conclusion that Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his No Movement Clause in order for the franchise to protect Matt Murray. This arrangement would suit him, as he performs far better statistically in a starting role, and it allows him to be “the guy” in a new city. If for some unforeseen reason Fleury opts against waiving his NMC, Rutherford will assuredly find a trade elsewhere prior to the expansion draft. At the end of the day, Murray, with two amazing playoff performances at only 23 years-old, is going nowhere.

The other four players who must be protected are those which will not give management any sleepless nights. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both future hall of famers playing prime hockey, providing great value for their contracts. Kessel, at his reduced rate, has absolutely exceeded expectations when his contract was shipped from Toronto. Kris Letang is the only player who some fans have balked out, as he has missed substantial chunks of time, consistently hitting LTIR and wasting cap dollars. Letang, however, is easily a top-10 defenseman in the league,. Watching how these playoffs have been far less decisive than last for Pittsburgh, there is no doubt the entire organization is willing to take the risk to have him return to the blueline.

The major decision right off the start will be whether Rutherford will decide to go with the 7 forwards-3 defensemen-1 goalie model, or the 8 total protected alternative. It seems apparent that most teams will opt for the former, because it provides protection to two additional players. The Penguins, however, are facing truly unique circumstances, and it seems slightly more likely that they will opt for the latter.

Assuming they go that route to protect their defensive corps (one of Justin Schultz/Olli Maatta), the decision at forward will not be an easy one. Beyond the big three up front who must be protected, there are a few names which could intrigue Vegas. Considering the cost to acquire him (James Neal), and his absolutely pivotal net-front presence, Patrick Hornqvist seems the safest bet to secure protection. Rutherford is a big fan, and many in management have placed a lot of faith in him. The downside of this, of course, is that it would leave Bryan Rust exposed. Rust has already made a name for himself in big games, with multiple game-winning and series-clinching goals. He has the same net-front mentality that Hornqvist does, and is five years his junior. Hornqvist is the more proven offensive commodity, but Rust’s 15 goals and 28 points are nothing to look down upon. In the wake of a potential loss of the hard nosed but unrestricted Chris Kunitz, this would be a painful blow to the team’s physicality. Thankfully, both Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are exempt from selection, which helps solidify their top lines regardless of this decision.

The defense if the 4-4-1 model is adopted is quite easy to predict. Although Ian Cole has been a completely perfect shot-blocking minute muncher this playoff run, he is 28 years old and relatively ineffective at driving offense with speed. Assuming that Schultz re-signs and doesn’t command an absolute robbery of a contract, he will be protected. His playoff run has been mostly solid, if spotted with occasional mishap, and his 51 points last season was good for 6th among defenseman in the league, just behind the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith. That sort of production isn’t easily replaced, and especially considering Letang’s precarious health situation, he is the go-to offensive defenseman in his absence.

Maatta could certainly find himself on the outs, but it’s difficult to imagine him being exposed in the expansion draft. The team showed a great deal of confidence in him by inking him to a 6 year contract after limited sophomore season action, and his contract at $4.083 is certainly manageable. The 23 year-old two-way defender will certainly need to improve his skating to keep up with the high-flying organizational mentality, and there is the possibility his sluggishness has landed him in serious disfavor. If Rutherford were intent on moving on from Maatta, however, it would not be via expansion – he is too valuable a piece to lose for nothing. A trade is certainly a possibility, but the smart money is on the front office praying for a healthy summer of training and improvement for the young Finn.

It is certainly conceivable that the Penguins do opt for the 7-3-1 option, if they truly value Rust more than Schultz or Maatta. This would result in Rust, Scott Wilson, and one of Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald, and Carl Hagelin to be the additional protect-ees. (Hagelin’s $4 MM contract would likely make him a prime target for sacrifice under this scenario.) Maatta would be the likely claim in this potentiality, as he is less favored internally for purely stylistic reasons when contrasted with Schultz.

However, it seems more likely that Pittsburgh has already worked out a scenario between Fleury, his agent, and Vegas management regarding Marc-Andre Fleury. Rutherford’s lack of panic around the draft last year has led many to believe that this situation has already been handled, and that perhaps a sweetener will be thrown in for not claiming Bryan Rust or a young defenseman.

Projected Protection List

F Sidney Crosby (NMC)
F Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
F Phil Kessel (NMC)
F Patrick Hornqvist

D Kris Letang (NMC)
D Brian Dumoulin
D Justin Schultz
D Olli Maatta

G Matt Murray

If for whatever reason one of Maatta and Schultz is left to dry in the place of this prediction, the re-signing of Trevor Daley and perhaps even Ron Hainsey would likely follow suit. The loss of Rust would be difficult to sustain on an emotional level, as he has been a leader for the younger Wilkes-Barre call-ups since last season. But with young players like Zach Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong looking to claim a roster spot in training camp next season, his offensive production would likely be easy to absorb. Ultimately, however, it seems probable that Fleury will be Vegas’ selection. Following his impressive resurgence in the first two round of the playoffs, and his difficult situation in Pittsburgh behind the legendary Matt Murray, it seems a fit that would work for all parties involved.

Injury Update: Bonino, Colin Wilson Out

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Nick Bonino could be facing a longer-term injury, as he has been spotted donning a suit, opting out of normal pre-game activities according to Dan Rosen of NHL.com. He has been utilizing a walking boot on his left foot and needs crutches to remain mobile. His position as 3rd line center will most likely be filled by the winger/center hybrid Carter Rowney, while the greybeard Matt Cullen will shift to center the 4th. Carl Hagelin found his way into the lineup as the replacement 12th forward at the last minute, in favor of the speedy Josh Archibald. Hagelin has a lot to prove to management following a down year. GM Jim Rutherford may be looking to shed a bit of salary this summer, as RFAs Brian Dumoulin and Conor Sheary will be looking for hefty raises.

Bonino has displayed his talents this post-season most obviously on the penalty kill. Although his even-strength production has picked up, especially in a game against where he centered Bryan Rust and the aforementioned Rowney, his shot-blocking prowess has been universally lauded. The forward has 4 goals and 3 assists through 21 playoff games after an up-and-down regular season performance where he posted 37 points. His 99 blocks during the season led all forwards, and his 15 this post-season have been instrumental in series where the Penguins have been drastically outshot.

As mentioned yesterday, this issue could affect Bonino’s future with the organization, as he was already facing an uncertain summer. The team will need to rely on the rest of the forward corps to up their defensive play if they hope to replace his presence tonight.

  • Colin Wilson doesn’t look as though he will be fit to play this evening, according to Tomas Willis. Vernon Fiddler also remains sidelined, while Cody McLeod is expected to be a scratch. P.A. Parenteau and Harry Zolniercyzk look to take their forward spots in the lineup. Parenteau had a decent season before being traded from New Jersey, but only potted one assist in 8 games in Nashville. Zolniercyzk, himself an ex-Penguin, is a feisty physical presence who will be inserted to provide energy. Although Wilson has regressed offensively the last two seasons, he was a pivotal player for the Predators early in this playoff run, potting 4 points in 12 games on an offense that has performed largely by committee. His solid defensive play will also be need to be recouped, as his 53.1 Corsi For % was one of the team’s best during the season.
  • Pekka Rinne finds the net this evening, despite his poor play in Games 1 and 2. Juuse Saros will not see his first start as head coach Peter Laviolette has chosen to place his confidence in the veteran tender. Rinne has posted a .778 save percentage in the Finals thus far, but will hope to turn it around in front of the home crowd.

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