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Free Agent Profile: Phil Kessel

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In his peak throughout the 2010s, Phil Kessel was a consistent 30-goal threat, displaying his electric shooting talent en route to back-to-back Stanley Cup championships with the Pittsburgh Penguins (and with the Toronto Maple Leafs before that). While Kessel’s move to Arizona for the last three seasons may have left him forgotten in some circles, he’s coming off his best season in three years.

Despite a career-low 4.6 shooting percentage, Kessel will pitch his relatively high point total, especially given the poor state of affairs in Arizona, to convince teams he’s still a credible threat. And, looking at his strong play-driving numbers from last season, he may have a point. Despite seeing his ice time dip to its lowest point during his three years in Arizona, Kessel still managed to finish within 11 points of the team lead at age 34.

It’s not often that a 34-year-old is on the open market with a strong reason to invest in a rebound season, but that’s the case with Kessel. Even if his defense hasn’t been pretty lately, it was never a selling point to his game. Considering his career average shooting percentage sits over 10 percent, expecting Kessel to have a stronger offensive season in 2022-23, at least in terms of putting pucks in the net, is a safe bet.

His Stanley Cup pedigree should also make him an attractive option for teams looking for affordable depth to help push them over the hump to a Stanley Cup.

Stats

2021-22: 82 GP, 8-44-52, -24 rating, 40 PIMs, 175 shots, 45.3 CF%, 16:41 ATOI
Career: 1204 GP, 399-557-956, -148 rating, 372 PIMs, 3700 shots, 49.3 CF%, 18:02 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Kessel should find a home before a lot of other veterans are forced to settle for PTOs as training camps begin. While he’s not what he used to be, he still had more than 50 points last season. With his low price tag, he should be an attractive option as teams continue to tinker with their rosters during the month of August.

There could be a spot for him in the bottom six of a retooled Calgary Flames forward group. While Jakob Pelletier is a strong candidate to make a jump to the NHL next season after a strong season in Stockton, Kessel could challenge other veterans such as Milan Lucic or Sean Monahan for playing time at a cheaper price and more goal-scoring upside. He could go Cup-chasing with the Colorado Avalanche as well, as they’ve lost some depth forwards such as Andre Burakovsky and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. He could also stand to be a solid secondary scoring option for the Minnesota Wild after they lost Kevin Fiala.

If he wants to head back East, the New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, and Florida Panthers are a trio of teams that could use him in their bottom six.

Projected Contract

Kessel came in 23rd on our Top 50 UFAs list in early July. While he likely won’t command the $2MM AAV we predicted at this point, there’s still a solid chance he could earn seven figures and not have to settle for a league minimum deal. It all likely depends on the cap situation of the team Kessel opts to sign with, as after over $90MM in career earnings, per CapFriendly, money likely won’t be a huge factor in his decision.

Latest on Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk

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There’s a significant sense around the league that teams are rushing to get their salary cap situations cleared up before the start of free agency next week. Moves like the Tampa Bay Lightning trading Ryan McDonagh to the Nashville Predators for spare change and the Minnesota Wild moving early on a Kevin Fiala deal are evidence of that.

Now, another team is joining that list of really trying to make headlines in the near future. ESPN’s Kevin Weekes reports that the Calgary Flames are making “every effort” now not only to re-sign top pending unrestricted free agent forward Johnny Gaudreau but also restricted free agent Matthew Tkachuk.

While most of the public talk has centered around Gaudreau’s status, it makes sense that general manager Brad Treliving would want to get these deals done in a short window. Playing on the same line, Gaudreau and Tkachuk helped propel each other to career seasons. The Flames are likely hoping that keeping the two together will keep their level of play from declining after this season.

Finances are also a huge part of this equation too, though. Gaudreau and Tkachuk are surely bound to take up a gigantic chunk of Calgary’s offseason spending limit, likely at least $16MM of it. With a long list of other players to re-sign and/or spots to fill via free agency, Calgary needs a clear picture of how much cash they’ll be able to devote to players like Andrew Mangiapane and Oliver Kylington while still fielding a cap-compliant squad.

With Tkachuk’s value through the roof after his 40-goal, 100-point season and Gaudreau likely able to net eight figures on the open market, Treliving faces his toughest challenge yet as GM in Calgary in order to keep this year’s Pacific Division champions at the top of the Western Conference.

Los Angeles Kings Acquire, Extend Kevin Fiala

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June 30: The team has now officially announced the seven-year extension, which will carry a cap hit of $7.875MM. CapFriendly reported yesterday that the contract includes a no-movement clause in years 2-4 and a limited no-trade clause in years 5-7.

June 29: The Los Angeles Kings have acquired the restricted free agent rights to winger Kevin Fiala from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for their 2022 first-round selection and defense prospect Brock Faber, per The Athletic’s Michael Russo. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to report Fiala heading to Southern California.

As confirmed by the league just hours earlier, the Los Angeles selection that the Wild are acquiring will be the 19th overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. The Wild now own picks 19 and 24 in the first round.

It’s important to note an extension between the Kings and Fiala still needs to be worked out, but with the Kings having nearly $20MM in projected cap space this summer per CapFriendly (and Fiala having arbitration rights), the contract itself is an eventuality, with TSN’s Chris Johnston reporting there’s a long-term extension in place. Friedman is reporting a cap hit of $7.9MM, and Johnston is reporting a seven-year term.

It’s hard to think that Fiala won’t become a spectacular fit within the Kings organization. The 25-year-old’s 85 points in 2021-22 would have led the Kings by 18, with Anze Kopitar leading them in scoring with 67 points. It’s also hard to think that Fiala won’t join a line with Kopitar (and likely 2022 All-Star Adrian Kempe) as the Kings’ top unit. Suddenly, with a support group behind them that includes Phillip Danault, Viktor Arvidsson, Alex Iafallo, and up-and-comers like Quinton Byfield and Arthur Kaliyev, Los Angeles looks poised to build on last year’s playoff appearance and solidify themselves as real players in the Western Conference. Of note, it’s also a reunion between Fiala and Arvidsson, who both were developed and got their starts with the Nashville Predators.

While it’s no top-five pick like some expected, the Wild get two quality pieces in return for Fiala as well. Faber, a Minnesota native, exploded onto the scene this year as one of the premier two-way defense prospects in the game, notching 14 points in 32 games with the University of Minnesota and getting the call to the United States Olympic team. Just 19 years old, Faber was the 45th overall selection in the 2020 draft by the Kings. The Wild are also likely to receive a high-upside prospect with the 19th overall pick. Some potential selections, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie’s rankings based on NHL scout surveys, are another Minnesota native in Jimmy Snuggerud (ranked 17th), Czech utility forward Jiri Kulich (ranked 18th), Russian sniper (and cancer survivor) Ivan Miroschnichenko (ranked 19th), sniper and University of Minnesota-Duluth commit Isaac Howard (ranked 20th), or Swedish forwards Liam Ohgren and Noah Ostlund (ranked 21st and 22nd). While none of those likely have the offensive upside of Fiala, combined with the addition of Faber, it seems to be close to fair value at first impression.

Expect this deal to open the floodgates for moves and deals ahead of the 2022 NHL Draft next week.

The Athletic’s Michael Russo was the first to report the full details of the trade.

Talks Picking Up On Kevin Fiala

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Last season was something of an all-in moment for the Minnesota Wild, thanks to the tough cap situation that is just on the horizon. The team will have more than $12.7MM in buyout penalties in 2022-23, and more than $14.7MM in the following two seasons. That means when it comes to extending restricted free agent Kevin Fiala, there isn’t much money in the piggy bank.

That has led to Fiala’s name leading the trade market as the draft approaches, almost a sure bet to be dealt at some point this offseason. He’s the top name on The Athletic’s trade bait board, Michael Russo of The Athletic suggests that he will be dealt within the week, and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that things are “intensifying on the Fiala front.”

Last month, Russo and Harman Dayal examined the kind of return the Wild should expect for their young star, following his breakout season that included 33 goals and 85 points. The 25-year-old winger is one of the most dynamic offensive talents in the league, and though there has been some inconsistency throughout his career, could drastically change the outlook of several teams.

His relative youth makes him an attractive target for just about anyone, though he does come with the caveat of restricted free agency. With six years under his belt already, he could go through arbitration and walk directly to the open market in a year, if he doesn’t reach a long-term extension with whatever team acquires him. That is a risk, meaning interested teams would likely want to discuss at least the framework of a contract before actually pulling the trigger on a trade.

With the draft right around the corner and free agency to come, the NHL trade market is about to get interesting. Fiala’s name is right at the top of that and could be the first domino to fall this summer.

Kevin Fiala’s Future Remains Uncertain

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The Minnesota Wild had a heck of a season, recording a franchise-high 113 points and securing home ice advantage in the first round. Unfortunately, it didn’t result in any postseason success, as they were eliminated in six games by the St. Louis Blues.

Despite the fact that they haven’t been together for very long, many were pointing to this season as a sort of “last dance” for the current Wild roster because of cap penalties coming next year. Minnesota will carry a $12.74MM cap charge in 2022-23, and a $14.74MM cap charge in the following two years because of the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. With a penalty that amounts to close to 16 percent of the cap ceiling, it’s extremely hard to build a competitive roster, at least when your goal is the Stanley Cup.

That means this offseason, general manager Bill Guerin will have to make some significant changes.

Most notable is the restricted free agent status of Kevin Fiala, who set a career high with 33 goals and 85 points this year after finding immediate chemistry with rookie Matt Boldy. Fiala’s platform year was an outstanding example of the dynamic five-on-five player many have always known he can be, as 67 of those points came at even-strength. Now, as he heads into the summer as an RFA for the final time, the Wild could very well have to move on from their Swiss star. Guerin was clear about that at his press conference today:

There’s uncertainty. We’d love to have Kevin back. I don’t know if it’s going to be possible. We have to dig into it a little bit, to see what we could possibly do. But there is uncertainty, that’s a good word for it. 

I’m uncertain. I am. Look, we can do anything–but at what cost?

Guerin explained that there have not yet been discussions with Fiala’s agent but there is no rush at the moment. As an arbitration-eligible RFA, the team still has control over the 25-year-old through the summer and doesn’t necessarily have to rush to get a new contract or a trade completed in the coming weeks.

Importantly, the Wild already have more than $75MM committed to next season with the buyout penalties, and other roster holes to address. That includes the goaltending position, where Cam Talbot is under contract, but Marc-Andre Fleury is a potential candidate for a short-term extension. They also will have several forward spots open even beyond Fiala, with Nicolas Deslauriers and Nick Bjugstad both scheduled for unrestricted free agency.

There are some internal candidates for those spots, with Marco Rossi leading the way after he returned from illness to have an excellent minor league season. The 20-year-old forward is expected to compete for a spot in training camp and likely has an inside track, given his relatively inexpensive entry-level contract. Rossi’s offensive upside could help to soften the blow of losing Fiala, and a trade could net the Wild other pieces to help build their club into a contender once again. It will be difficult, however, which makes this first-round loss likely sting all the more for fans in Minnesota.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Wild, Babcock, Trouba

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Questions are sure to arise this offseason in the State of Hockey. The Minnesota Wild, although they forced the series to six games, were dealt with pretty handily in the final days of their season by the St. Louis Blues, capped off by a 5-1 rout in Game 6.

Now, with the full effect of the controversial Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyouts kicking in next season, many wonder how the Wild will be able to manage their cap space moving forward. NBC Sports’ James O’Brien looks at a few routes the Wild could go down to manage their salary cap situation next season. The buyouts take up a combined $12.74MM next season, and although the team’s cap situation is fuzzy due to the amount of playoff Black Aces still on the active roster, they’ll surely have less than $10MM to work with this offseason. That includes signing Kevin Fiala, who’s a restricted free agent with arbitration rights (again), to a new deal, and finding a goalie to replace (or to-resign) Marc-Andre Fleury. While Fiala could be dealt, especially after an underwhelming playoff performance, they could also look to clear out some depth names. O’Brien names Dmitry Kulikov, who carries a $2.25MM cap hit next season, as another trade piece, although he does have an eight-team no-trade list (somehow).

  • While there hasn’t been any official link, and there likely won’t be knowing the tight-lipped Lou Lamoriello, The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz names former NHL bench boss Mike Babcock as a potential fit for the New York Islanders’ coaching vacancy. Kurz references Lamoriello’s history with Babcock in Toronto, and Lamoriello’s history of opting for tougher, more aggressive voices in the room as a solution to unsatisfactory team performance. Since then, he’s served as a senior adviser at the University of Vermont and the head coach of the University of Saskatchewan.
  • After Jacob Trouba’s controversial hit that gave Sidney Crosby a reported concussion, The Athletic’s Eric Duhatscheck looked at whether the NHL could examine a potential rule change to penalize similar hits in the future. Duhatschek notes that penalizing all hits to the head is extremely unlikely, as evidenced by current NHL leadership’s hesitation against cracking down on body contact. While illegal head contact exists in the NHL, by its definition, the league viewed Trouba’s hit as legal.

Snapshots: Three Stars, Ovechkin, Senators

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The NHL has released its Three Stars for last week, with Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos leading the way. After racking up 13 points in four games Stamkos is now just three points away from cracking the 100-point mark for the first time in his career. Already with a career-high of 60 assists, Stamkos has changed his game dramatically over the last few seasons and reinvigorated a Hall of Fame-level career that had been held back by injuries.

Second and third went to Kevin Fiala and Jonathan Quick, two players that have been questioned at times over the last few years. Fiala, 25, has finally found a level of consistency that matches his talent, and with 11 points in four games last week now has 84 on the season. In fact, Fiala is on a ten-game point streak and is really establishing himself as one of the most dynamic offensive players in the entire league, something that certainly will complicate matters in the offseason when he hits restricted free agency for the final time. Quick meanwhile was left for dead a few years ago when injuries struck and his numbers fell off a cliff, but the 36-year-old has battled admirably for the Kings this season. With a .909 save percentage, he still lags behind some of the league’s elite netminders but just ask some of his previous Western Conference opponents about how dominant he can be in the postseason.

  • Alex Ovechkin has been listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury after leaving last night’s game for the Washington Capitals but was present on the ice and in full uniform at the team photo today. With the Capitals still trying to chase down the Pittsburgh Penguins for a better playoff position, losing Ovechkin over the last few games of the season will obviously be a big blow. But with their inclusion in the postseason secure, resting him through the next week may be the more prudent option. Ovechkin, who will turn 37 before the start of next season, has 50 goals and 90 points in 77 games this year.
  • The Ottawa Senators had an exciting reinforcement at practice today as Shane Pinto joined the group, but he won’t actually play before the end of the season. Pinto hasn’t played since November, and totaled just five games on the season. It was more bad news when head coach D.J. Smith took the podium after practice, announcing that Colin White and Connor Brown are both not expected to play again this season. Brown is dealing with nagging injuries and his inclusion in the upcoming World Championship will be up to him and how he feels in the coming weeks. Brown finishes the disappointing year with ten goals and 39 points in 64 games.

Central Notes: Byram, Toews, Wild

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Back in January, Avalanche defenseman Bowen Byram contemplated not returning this season or even hanging up his skates altogether, relays Mike Chambers of The Denver Post.  He had recently returned to Colorado’s lineup before his concussion symptoms returned and had to shut things down at that time.  The progress that the 20-year-old made in his recovery nudged him towards trying to come back this season which he did last week and he has gotten into six games since then.  Byram’s playing time since then has been a bit limited relative to his early-season usage which is certainly understandable both in terms of allowing him to ease back into things plus Colorado’s top seed in the Western Conference.  He could be an interesting wild card for the Avs heading into the postseason as he certainly has given their third pairing a lift.

More from the Central:

  • Still with Colorado, defenseman Devon Toews won’t suit up tonight and won’t accompany the team on their upcoming three-game road trip, notes Peter Baugh of The Athletic (Twitter link). The good news for the Avalanche is that head coach Jared Bednar indicated that the injury isn’t cause for concern which means he should be good to go for the playoffs, if not a game or two before then.  The 28-year-old is logging more than 25 minutes a game on the back end this season, second to only Cale Makar for Colorado.
  • Michael Russo of The Athletic outlines (subscription link) the tough decision the Wild are facing this summer.  Their cap situation gets a lot worse with the increased dead cap charges on the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts and it appears they’ll be facing a situation where either winger Kevin Fiala or defenseman Mathew Dumba get traded.  Minnesota wasn’t able to agree to a long-term deal with Fiala last summer and wound up taking him to salary arbitration.  He has one year of RFA eligibility remaining and with 73 points in 75 games, he’ll be eyeing a big raise on his $5.1MM price tag while making it very difficult to justify moving him.  Dumba is signed through next season at $6MM and would certainly have a strong trade market if they opted to move him to keep Fiala in the fold.

Snapshots: Three Stars, Andersen, Smith

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The NHL has released its Three Stars for last week, with the top spot belonging to Vladimir Tarasenko of the St. Louis Blues. It’s been an incredible return to form for Tarasenko this season, after multiple shoulder surgeries had clouded his NHL future. After requesting a trade and going unclaimed by the expansion Seattle Kraken, he returned to the Blues with a renewed vigor and has posted the best offensive season of his career, with 76 points in 69 games. That includes 11 points just last week, as he continued what is now a six-game point streak.

Second and third went to Kevin Fiala and Mike Smith respectively, another two players whose futures with their current organizations looked murky not too long ago. The Minnesota Wild forward still might end up pricing himself out of the market given how well his season has gone since Matt Boldy’s arrival. In his last 46 games, Fiala has 25 goals and 55 points, including ten last week. Smith meanwhile looked at one point like he would be out of the league entirely, but the 40-year-old netminder has turned things around of late, posting consecutive shutouts in his last two games to lengthen a personal win streak to six and raise his season save percentage to .911.

  • Just as one veteran netminder turns things around, another may be out for a little while. Frederik Andersen has suffered an injury and will be re-evaluated in a week, according to Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour, who spoke to reporters including Sara Civian of The Athletic. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that Andersen’s MRI did come back negative and there is hope he’ll be ready for the playoffs, but a timeline is not clear at this point. Andersen has been one of the league’s very best this season, posting 35 wins and a .922 through 52 appearances.
  • Speaking of being back in the playoffs, Vegas Golden Knights head coach Pete DeBoer told reporters including Jesse Granger of The Athletic that if they make the postseason, he would expect Reilly Smith to return at some point. The 31-year-old Smith hasn’t played since early March and was moved to long-term injured reserve a few weeks ago. The Golden Knights, however, are no sure thing to make the playoffs at this point, as they currently sit four points behind the Nashville Predators for the final wild card spot (but only three behind Los Angeles for a divisional position).

Minnesota Wild Targeting J.T. Miller

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Things are not alright in Vancouver amidst another disappointing start. The Canucks sit seventh in the Pacific Division with just three wins in their past ten games. While the front office and ownership have promised (at least publicly) to stay the course and not overreact to their current turmoil, NHL competitors are taking notice and lining up for a piece of a potential fire sale.

At the front of the line are the Minnesota Wild. The Central Division leaders are enjoying a strong start, but are not without holes in the lineup, one of them being another top-six scorer. While The Province’s Ben Kuzma notes that Minnesota native Brock Boeser would seem to be the ideal acquisition, he reports that the Wild have in fact called on J.T. Miller. While Miller has flashed ability at every stop, including New York and Tampa, he has been at his best since landing with the Canucks. Miller can do it all from the center position; a balanced scorer, fierce checker, and face-off ace, Miller has developed into a well-rounded top-six pivot. He even plays big minutes for the Canucks, too. The Wild have taken notice and clearly feel that he could be an asset, perhaps even on the top line.

Kicking the tires is far from finalizing a deal though and the Canucks won’t let Miller go easily. Miller is signed through next season and at a $5.25MM AAV that is very palatable for a player who has scored at a near point-per-game pace since arriving in Vancouver. Kuzma suspects that a package from Minnesota would likely include Kevin Fiala, which could be attractive to the Canucks. Fiala and the Wild seem to be at odds about his role on the team following a difficult negotiation this summer and the 25-year-old forward could benefit from a change of scenery. The Canucks would get younger by swapping Miller for Fiala, but will also maintain their goal of avoiding a rebuild by adding another talented, proven forward in return. That won’t be it either, as the Canucks will be able to command some building blocks as well. Their first-round pick and top prospects Marco Rossi and Matt Boldy are likely off the board, but a second-round and/or an exciting young name like Calen Addison or Adam Beckman could be floated instead.

Again, a deal is nowhere close but when interest is able to be confirmed like this, there is typically more than just smoke. The Canucks and Wild seem like good trade partners, the question is whether Vancouver is willing and if so whether Minnesota can meet their demands. Miller could be a game-changer for a Wild team in position to make a deep run this season.

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