Jacob Trouba

Injury Notes: Kulikov, Pesce, Carrick, Arvidsson

November 12, 2018 at 1:20 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The Winnipeg Jets recalled top prospect Sami Niku this weekend as a replacement for the injured Dmitry Kulikov, and he might get a longer than expected opportunity in the NHL. Kulikov has been moved to injured reserve and is out for at least four weeks according to Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun. The veteran defenseman suffered an upper-body injury, and will now have to fight his way back on the roster in a month’s time.

Kulikov had appeared in just six games this season for the Jets, averaging fewer than 11 minutes per game. That’s a far cry from the expectations placed on him when he signed a three-year $13MM deal in the summer of 2017, one that has not aged well given the rest of the big contracts Winnipeg needs to give out. The team has plenty of cap space at the moment, but will need to hand out deals to Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor, Jacob Trouba and several other restricted free agents this summer.

Brett Pesce’s absence at Carolina Hurricanes practice may have set off some alarm bells given the recent speculation about the team’s interest in William Nylander, but Michael Smith of NHL.com reports the defenseman is working through a minor lower-body injury. Pesce won’t play tonight for the Hurricanes, but is listed as just day-to-day for now.
Meanwhile in Dallas, Stars’ defenseman Connor Carrick will miss at least three more weeks with his lower-body injury according to broadcaster Bruce LeVine. The Stars are without John Klingberg as well, leaving a lot of the puck-moving responsibility to young defensemen Miro Heiskanen and Julius Honka. Carrick has four points in nine games for the Stars since being acquired just prior to the beginning of the season. Importantly, that trade included a condition that would change the seventh round pick to a sixth round pick for Toronto if Carrick plays in 50 games. An injury like this puts that 50 game threshold very much in doubt.
Viktor Arvidsson had just returned from a stint on injured reserve, but is headed back to the shelf after leaving the Nashville Predators recent game against Dallas. Arvidsson has been placed on injured reserve once again, meaning he’ll miss at least a week with his upper-body injury.

Toronto’s Auston Matthews Suffers Shoulder Injury

October 27, 2018 at 8:52 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 6 Comments

Sunday: Head coach Mike Babcock said that Matthews will be re-evaluated on Monday, according to NHL.com’s Dave McCarthy. However, Babcock did admit that Matthews will not practice Sunday or play in Monday’s game against Calgary.

“He’s not ready right away for sure,” Babcock said.

Saturday: The Toronto Maple Leafs got some bad news as star Auston Matthews suffered a shoulder injury during the second period of their game against the Winnipeg Jets Saturday. The center took a big hit (video here) from Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba and skated off in pain, immediately exiting the game. It didn’t take long before the team announced that he will not return to the game. This marks the third shoulder injury in his career.

Any significant injury would be devastating for both Matthews and the team. The 21-year-old Matthews is having the best start of his career, posting 10 goals and 16 points in the team’s first 10 games (not including this one), but he missed 20 games due to injury last year (including a second-degree shoulder separation injury) and the Maple Leafs would like to avoid another long stretch of games without their star center. Matthews also suffered a significant shoulder injury in juniors. Any injury would likely push John Tavares into an even bigger role for the team as well as promote Nazem Kadri to the team’s second line.

If Matthews does miss time, it could be a way for restricted free agent William Nylander to get that extra leverage and force the team to hand him a contract closer to the $8MM pricetag that he’s asking for. The two sides have been far apart in contract negotiations as time is starting to run out. A significant injury could force Toronto to add some money to the deal to get him into their lineup as quick as possible to keep their offense rolling.

Central Notes: Makar, Dunn, Morrissey, Vesalainen

October 20, 2018 at 3:00 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

The Colorado Avalanche may be focused on the present, but their future looks bright as well. Not only do the Avalanche have the Ottawa Senators first-round pick this season, which could be a lottery pick despite the team’s success early on this year, the team likes what it sees from Cale Makar, the fourth-overall pick in 2017.

The 19-year-old, who is in his sophomore year at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, has been dominating so far in the early games of the season. UMass reports that Makar leads the NCAA already in points/game with 2.33 as he has three goals and seven points in three games. Makar, who had a good season last year, had just 21 points in 34 games last season, putting him way ahead of where he was a year ago. There continue to be rumors that he’ll sign with the Avalanche after this collegiate season.

The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) answers questions in a mailbag session and points out that the St. Louis Blues intend to put more responsibilities on the shoulders of second-year defenseman Vince Dunn, who has struggled getting minutes early in the season and has been scratched twice. However, Rutherford writes that the Blues believe he’s been one of their most effective defenders and is likely to receive top-four minutes from now on. Evidently, Dunn suffered through back issues over the summer and wasn’t able to get into top shape before the season started. Now that he’s almost back to the shape he was in last year, Dunn is likely to see an uptick in minutes. He’s already expected to be paired on the top defensive line with Alex Pietrangelo.
In a notebook, The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek (subscription required) writes that Winnipeg Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey is developing nicely after being drafted as an offensive-only defenseman back in 2013. Since then, he’s developed into an excellent shutdown defender and with Jacob Trouba, combine as the team’s shutdown defensive line against other team’s top players. However, when veteran defenseman Dustin Byfuglien went down with an injury last week, Morrissey was given his job on the No. 1 powerplay and still maintains that job despite Byfuglien’s return. Byfuglien has moved to the No. 2 power play role.
With the Winnipeg Jets sending 2017 first-round pick Kristian Vesalainen down to Manitoba of the AHL Friday, Moose head coach Pascal Vincent said that the goal is to give the 19-year-old lots of minutes, especially on the power play to get him more ready to eventually return to Winnpeg. “…we want to put him in a position to be successful so he is going to play a lot of minutes and on the power play and I think for his development that’s the right thing,” Vincent said (via Dave Minuk of illegalcurve.com).

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

October 6, 2018 at 3:58 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $74,274,122 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Patrik Laine (one year, $925K)
F Kyle Connor (one year, $925K)
F Kristian Vesalainen (three years, $925K)
F Jack Roslovic (two years, $894K)
F Brendan Lemieux (one year, $839K)
D Sami Niku (two years, $775K)

Potential Bonuses:

Laine: $2.65MM
Connor: $850K
Roslovic: $213K
Lemieux: $200K
Niku: $183K

Total: $4.1MM

The Jets were hit hard when many of their entry-level deals expired a year ago and next year won’t be too much different as the team, which is now starting to feel the strain of the salary cap, will have to find a way to hand over a lot of money to Laine, who could receive a long-term deal at an extremely high price. Of course, the 20-year-old is worth that money. The winger scored 36 goals in his rookie campaign and topped that with a 44-goal season last year. If he can reach numbers even close to that, he could be one of the highest players in the league in a year.

Connor should also cost the team a good deal of money as the 21-year-old winger posted 31 goals in his first full NHL season last year and looks to be heading in a similar direction and could also get himself a contract in the $5MM+ range in one season. The team gets another year for Roslovic, who is currently playing in the bottom-six, but don’t be surprised if the 21-year-old center might eventually move into the top-six at some point in the season.

It’s still too early to know where Vesalainen stands, but the highly-touted prospect will get time immediately in a bottom-six role and develop his skills. With three years on his entry-level deal, the team hopes it can get some cheap scoring options from him for a few years.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Jacob Trouba ($5.5MM, RFA)
D Tyler Myers ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Ben Chiarot ($1.4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Andrew Copp ($1MM, RFA)
D Joseph Morrow ($1MM, RFA)
F Nic Petan ($874K, RFA)
F Marko Dano ($800K, RFA)
G Laurent Brossoit ($650K, RFA)

While the team is deep in forwards, their defense has many long-term questions surrounding them. Two of those players have contracts that will expire at the end of the season. Trouba is the most interesting. Despite holding out several years ago and showing little interest in Winnipeg, it looked like things were improving after Winnipeg enjoyed an impressive season last year that took them to the Western Conference Finals. However, another difficult negotiations that failed to bring in a long-term deal and the team may be forced to move on from Trouba sooner than later. He can be an unrestricted free agent after the 2019-20 season.

Myers is also a candidate for the team to move on from as the veteran is on the final year of a seven-year, $38.5MM deal. While Myers is still a very productive player, the long term deals the team has already signed off on as well as potential deals with Laine and Connor could make him a cap casualty as well. The team has Niku, among others, sitting in the AHL waiting for a spot to open and some could open up at the end of the year.

Two Years Remaining

D Dmitry Kulikov ($4.33MM, UFA)
D Josh Morrissey ($3.15MM, RFA)

The team made a couple of free agent signings last offseason, including bringing in goalie Steve Mason and signing Kulikov. Mason has already been traded away after a disappointing season, while Kulikov has had trouble fitting in as well, even being held out of several playoff games last year. The 27-year-old is barely holding onto his spot as a third-line defender and could find himself fighting for time eventually if he can’t improve his game.

Morrissey is a different story. The partner to Trouba has been a solid defender and has continued to improve his game and will still be a restricted free agent in a few years, giving the team another opportunity to lock him up long-term.

Three Years Remaining

D Dustin Byfuglien ($7.6MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Perreault ($4.13MM, UFA)
F Adam Lowry ($2.92MM, UFA)

Byfuglien is locked up long-term and in many ways is the face of the franchise, who produces both physicality and offense for the team. The 6-foot-5, 260-pound blueliner did just provide eight goals last year, one of the lowest totals of his career, but the 33-year-old still managed to produce 45 points. The team needs the veteran to continue his dominant play for a few years more if the team intends to continue a long-term Western Conference run.

The team also needs Perreault to continue playing solid hockey as one of their best bottom-six forwards. The 30-year-old posted 17 goals last year, one goal shy of his career-high. The 25-year-old Lowry is another player who the team needs to step up for the franchise. He posted 15 goals in 2016-17, but managed to score just eight goals last year in 45 games. However, his passing game showed quite a bit of improvement.

Four Or More Years Remaining

G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.19MM through 2023-24)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.13MM through 2023-24)
F Nikolaj Ehlers ($6MM through 2024-25)
F Blake Wheeler ($5.6MM in 2018-19; $8.25MM through 2023-24)
F Bryan Little ($5.29MM through 2023-24)

The franchise has quite a few blue-chip players already locked up long-term with the most important position, goaltending, looking to be in good shape after the team signed Hellebuyck to a six-year, $37MM deal. The 25-year-old posted an impressive breakout season that saw him post a 2.37 GAA and a .924 save percentage and should be a major positive for the team over the next six years.

The team signed Wheeler, their captain, to a long-term extension this offseason. He will finish out his previous deal at $5.6MM, but will start on a four-year extension at $8.25MM. Wheeler posted 20 goals for the fifth-straight season, but also saw his points total surge as the 32-year-old put up a career-high 91 points last year, way better than his previous career-high of 78 points.

Ehlers signed a seven-year extension at this time last season and the 22-year-old posted a career-high 29 goals last season playing on the other side of Laine and producing one of the team’s most dangerous lines. The team also has Little working as a second-line center, although many believe that he’d be better off with a bottom-six role down the road, which would make him an expensive long-term cost at $5.29MM.

Buyouts

F Mark Stuart ($583K in 2018-19)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Scheifele
Worst Value: Kulikov

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The Winnipeg Jets have done an incredible job so far drafting and developing high-end talent and so far have done an excellent job keeping them in the fold for what the team hopes to be a solid five year run for a Stanley Cup. The team has already locked up many of their top players and while they still have a few more to go, they look well on their way to doing that. The only real question is how general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff handles his defense as he has a pair of major decisions to make within the next year when it comes to dealing with Trouba and Myers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Winnipeg Jets, Josh Morrissey Agree To Two-Year Bridge Deal

September 16, 2018 at 4:19 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 2 Comments

The Winnipeg Jets have agreed to a two-year bridge deal with restricted free agent defenseman Josh Morrissey, according to Winnipeg Sun’s Ken Wiebe. It will be a two-year deal with $6.3MM with an AAV of $3.15MM. That’s impressive value for Winnipeg, who have finally wrapped up their offseason signings.

The team has already signed a host of players this offseason, including goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (six years, $36MM), forwards Adam Lowry (three years, $8.75MM), Brandon Tanev (one year, $1.15MM), Marko Dano (one year, $800K), defensemen Jacob Trouba (one year, $5.5MM), Tucker Poolman (three years, $2.33MM), Joseph Morrow (one year, $1MM). They also extended Blake Wheeler to a five-year, $43.25MM deal.

Morrissey, who has been in the league for two years, posted solid numbers for the Jets as the partner of Trouba on the team’s top line. The 23-year-old has been solid on defense and showed some offensive spark, posting 13 goals and 46 points in two seasons. He was also paired more and more against their opponents’ top line, especially in the playoffs. The two-year deal allows the Jets to look into a long-term option then when he still will be a restricted free agent. That gives both sides more opportunity to see if Morrissey can continue to develop into legitimate No. 1 defender down the road.

The signing could also spark other restricted free agents as both Edmonton Oilers’ Darnell Nurse and Vegas Golden Knights’ Shea Theodore were both waiting to see what Morrissey would do. The deal could affect the negotiating leverage that both have as neither player had better offensive numbers than Morrissey.

Central Notes: Trouba, Kunin, Josi

September 15, 2018 at 8:35 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

The Jets and Jacob Trouba weren’t able to work out an agreement on a contract and wound up going through salary arbitration with him being awarded $5.5MM. The defenseman told Postmedia’s Ken Wiebe that he’s hopeful to avoid going that route next offseason and indicated that he remains open to signing a long-term pact with the team, acknowledging that there were long-term deals discussed over the summer. Winnipeg has several players in the final year of their contract including fellow blueliner Tyler Myers plus wingers Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor and already has nearly $52.5MM committed to just 11 players for 2019-20. While Winnipeg may certainly be interested in giving Trouba a long-term contract, they may not be able to afford to do so without clearing out someone else to create the cap space.

Plenty Of Work Still Left To Do In Winnipeg

August 22, 2018 at 9:20 am CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The Winnipeg Jets are one of the strongest and deepest teams in the NHL. They reached the Western Conference Finals last season on the back of a strong goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck, a never-ending offensive attack, and a diverse and talented blue line. This summer they had quite a bit of work to do to keep that group together, and have already dealt with several issues.

Hellebuyck was signed to a six-year contract, guaranteeing he’ll be in Winnipeg through his prime years, while Adam Lowry and Tucker Poolman signed multi-year deals to maintain their roles as depth players in the NHL. Jacob Trouba reached a one-year deal through the arbitration process, and crept one year closer to unrestricted free agency, and several other fringe pieces re-upped for one-year deals. Just yesterday, Nicolas Kerdiles inked his two-way deal yesterday, but unfortunately, that doesn’t cover nearly all the work the team still has to do.

First on the to-do list has to be a new deal for Josh Morrissey, who has established himself as a key left-handed counterpart to the big names on the right side for the Jets defense corps. With Toby Enstrom leaving for greener pastures, Morrissey will be asked to take on even more responsibility going forward and could demand a long-term deal. The Jets have Poolman, Dustin Byfuglien and Dmitry Kulikov signed past 2018-19, and need to get some more certainty on the blue line as they continue their negotiations with Trouba and fellow 2019 UFA Tyler Myers. For his part, Morrissey believes that a contract will get done before the start of the season. He told Jason Bell of the Winnipeg Free Press as much in a recent interview:

Everyone’s going to have their own opinions and that’s fine, but from my standpoint as a player, my agent and from our conversations with the team, everything’s been going great. Everyone’s confident it will be handled and done, definitely in time for the season.

It’s in Myers, Trouba and captain Blake Wheeler that the next group of big decisions lie. All three are scheduled for unrestricted free agency next summer, and though an extension can’t be signed with Trouba until January, the other two are potential extension candidates at any point. The team certainly doesn’t want to watch two of their most valuable players walk out the door in less than a year, especially as they just start their competitive window.

Then, there is the question of Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor. Both star forwards are heading into the final years of their entry-level contracts, and both could break the bank on long-term extensions. While Laine says there is no rush to get a deal done, the Jets have to try and save every possible dollar if they’re going to be able to bring back Wheeler and Myers too. Connor is fresh off a breakout 31-goal campaign as a rookie, and Laine looks like he’s poised to be the next great NHL goal scorer capable of winning multiple Maurice Richard trophies and contending for the Hart as league MVP. That kind of player could get an eight figure salary if he pushes hard for it, though the recent Nikita Kucherov extension could put a soft cap on winger earnings for a while.

The Jets are currently sitting with $35MM in cap space for the 2018-19 season, but that suddenly doesn’t seem like very much when you start adding up the salaries of Morrissey, Wheeler, Myers, Trouba, Laine and Connor. There’s room to keep everyone in Winnipeg, but it will be a tight fit. The next 12 months will be an incredibly busy period for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, even while the team tries to compete for the Stanley Cup.

Snapshots: Jets, Islanders, Stars

August 20, 2018 at 6:08 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

Do the Winnipeg Jets need to reassess how they are building their team? Obviously, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff and company are doing a fine job as is; the Jets finished with the second-best record in the NHL last season and boast one of the league’s youngest lineups. However, Paul Wiecek of The Winnipeg Free Press makes a valid point that with a cap crunch coming for the talented squad, the team would be better off shifting their focus away from the blue line and onto the forward corps. Wiecek cites the contract disputes with Jacob Trouba – who will be a restricted free agent once again next summer – and the still unsigned Josh Morrissey as situations that the Jets could move on from in the near future. Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot will also both be unrestricted free agents next off-season and the team will have to figure out what do there as well. Instead of continuing to devote precious cap space to the blue line, like the Jets’ Central Division rival Nashville Predators, Wiecek feels the team would be better off focusing their efforts and expenditures up front. With Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor, as well as several other young depth forwards, headed to restricted free agency in 2019, it may be in Winnipeg’s best interests to sign their talented homegrown forwards to long-term deals and look at other options on the blue line. The same goes for re-signing captain Blake Wheeler, an impending UFA would draw considerable interest if he hit the open market. Wiecek suggests the team look at the recent Stanley Cup winners, the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins, who were far more invested in star power and depth up front than on the back end. With that talent already in place among the Jets’ forwards, and some dissent and long-term questions on the blue line, this may be an idea that would work out very well in Winnipeg’s favor.

Another team making changes to their structure are the New York Islanders. However, this adjustment is one of strategy and culture under new head coach Barry Trotz. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple sat down with the recent Stanley Cup winner and learned about the whirlwind first couple of months for Trotz with the team. Trotz was not short on feelings about the club and its future:

“There’s going to be change. It’s going to be structurally, on and off the ice, expectations are going to change… On the ice, I have a vision of how we can play to be better. This team can score, with John Tavares or without John Tavares. The area it’s failed in maybe the last year and a half is on the defensive end. Just looking at the trends over the last four years, it’s clear that’s an area we need to fix. The great thing about the game, one of the hardest things to do in this league is create offense and score goals. This team has been able to do that in the last four years. One of the easiest things to correct, if there’s a commitment and a buy-in, is keeping the puck out of your net. We’ll need a bigger buy-in, we’ll put some structure, we’ll make sure the details are there and we’ll make players accountable. If they’re not, we’ll get someone who can be accountable. And we’ve got to build our players. We’ve got some unfinished products who can certainly be better. Get them to play to their capabilities, that’s all we ask. We want them to be consistent and play to their capabilities, we never ask guys to do more than they’re capable of.”

To say it has been a difficult summer for the Islanders and their fans, given the loss of Tavares and the lack of improvement elsewhere on the roster, is an understatement. However, they still obtained a successful and well-respected coach and hearing that he has a clear plan and is open about his expectations has to be a boost to the morale of the team and its supporters.
Another new head coach has his players excited for the coming season. In speaking with Mike Zeisberger of NHL.com, Dallas Stars defenseman John Klingberg expressed his pleasure with the team’s hiring of Jim Montgomery as their new coach. Montgomery recently visited Klingberg at his home in Sweden and the talented defender came away very impressed with their first real interaction. Not only was Klingberg very appreciative of his new bench boss’ willingness to make the long trek to visit him, but also connected with Montgomery about his plans for the team and his own individual development. Klingberg feels that Montgomery can help him transform into a true No. 1 defenseman and that his plan for the team will play to the elite puck-movers strength. Klingberg summarized his excitement for the new campaign nicely, telling Zeisberger that he and Montgomery “have the potential to do some big things.”

Negotiation Notes: Arbitration Hearings, Nylander, Islanders

August 1, 2018 at 8:00 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

Two more players sat down for arbitration hearings today, as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that neither the Ottawa Senators and Cody Ceci nor the Dallas Stars and Gemel Smith were able to come to terms beforehand. Both situations bear watching over the next 48 hours, as they must agree to a deal in that window or else get stuck with the arbitrator’s award. Ceci’s case is similar to that of the Winnipeg Jets’ Jacob Trouba, which went through to a decision earlier this off-season. Both Ceci and Trouba filed at a number that shares few reasonable comparisons – Trouba at $7MM and Ceci at $6MM. While Trouba’s side likely tried to use several recent cases of offensive-minded defenseman who settled for $5.5MM and then argue that he is the superior defensive player, Ceci does not have the comparable offense to make as strong a case. As such, he is unlikely to get the $5.5MM award that Trouba landed, the midpoint of his case. Instead, look for Ceci to get somewhere in the $4-4.5MM range. Smith’s is a much different scenario, similar to another previously decided case this summer, that of Calgary Flames defenseman Brett Kulak. In both cases, the team offered only a minimum, two-way contract while the player filed at a higher value for a one-way deal – Kulak at $1.15MM and Smith at $900K. While Kulak was able to land a $850K one-way deal from the arbitrator, he also played in 71 games in the platform year, while Smith only suited up for 46. Smith faces a far tougher argument that he is a bona fide NHL player at this point in his career.

Restricted free agent William Nylander continues to negotiate with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but the explosive young forward is not interested in a short-term bridge deal. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox suggests that Nylander is only talking about a long-term deal right now. While the Leafs might be trying to play it safe, with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner also in need of extensions next summer (along with the majority of their roster), Nylander doesn’t seem willing to take a bridge deal only to watch his fellow budding stars sign long-term contracts instead. Nylander may have hit restricted free agency earlier than Matthews and Marner, but the trio all have similar games played and points since Nylander only played in 22 games with Toronto in his first season before the other two joined the squad. All three have been remarkably consistent early on and, given their similarities, it is hard to blame Nylander for wanting a long-term deal when he knows that Matthews and Marner are likely to get them.
While it makes sense that the New York Islanders have focused on adding forwards and a new goaltender this season, after losing superstar center John Tavares and starting goalie Jaroslav Halak to free agency, Newsday’s Andrew Gross thinks it’s strange that the team has not added to the blue line at all. The team re-signed Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock, but have added no one else while losing Calvin de Haan and opting not to bring back Brandon Davidson and Dennis Seidenberg. Gross notes that recently re-signed center Brock Nelson, an impending free agent, could be used as a trade chip to add to a blue line that struggled greatly last season. There are certainly teams out there with a plethora of defensemen who could use Nelson up front. The Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, and Winnipeg Jets are clubs that fit the bill, but Nelson would not be nearly enough to land a Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, or Jacob Trouba and an expendable piece that he might fetch, like a Trevor van Riemsdyk, Adam McQuaid, or Tucker Poolman might not be enough to fix the Islanders blue line. New York may have to up the ante beyond Nelson to land a difference-maker on the back end.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

July 31, 2018 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 5 Comments

Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

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