The Case For A Tristan Jarry Offer Sheet
The art of the offer sheet is all but dead in the NHL. As The Athletic’s Craig Custance writes, there have only been eight offer sheets in the salary cap era, all but one have been matched, and none have been signed since 2013. It remains a shadowy threat for every GM looking to lock up his young restricted free agents, but at this point is more myth than reality. Custance even conducted a poll of nine GM’s that implied a feeling across the league that no offer sheets are coming this off-season. Even with attractive targets like the cap-strapped Detroit Red Wings’ Dylan Larkin, the Calgary Flames’ newly-acquired Noah Hanifin, and a key piece of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ young core, William Nylander, none of the GM’s could see a realistic spot where making an offer would be worth the effort as the team would always be able to match.
What about thinking outside the box and not looking at the top targets but at the team most unlikely to match? The Pittsburgh Penguins are not getting any sympathy from teams around the league. Winners of two of the last three Stanley Cups, a playoff team every year since 2007, and home to the best player in the league, the Penguins have had a great run and it’s unlikely to end any time soon. While many teams fear the backlash associated with poaching young players through offer sheets, Pittsburgh is perhaps the only team in the league that could come under attack and no one else would mind. The Penguins have also put themselves in a position that makes them easy prey. CapFriendly currently estimates that the team has just $745K in cap space heading into next season. Even if Jimmy Hayes fails to break camp or Zach Aston-Reese is sent down – the only foreseeable options, the Pens are still left with no more than $1.5MM in space and will need room to maneuver during the season.
Pittsburgh has just one restricted free agent left to re-sign: 23-year-old goaltender Tristan Jarry. Jarry has not been considered an offer sheet threat for a couple of reasons. The first is simply that he has yet to prove that he is a true NHL-caliber goalie. Jarry was a star at the junior level with the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings and was drafted in the second round by the Penguins in 2013. His first two pro seasons were spent entirely in the AHL, expect for one spot start in Pittsburgh, and he made the transition look easy, posting strong numbers through 78 combined games. Last season was a deviation from that smooth upward trajectory. The departure of Marc-Andre Fleury left Jarry as the primary backup to starter Matt Murray and the NHL level proved to be a little more difficult. Jarry had an up-and-down season with streaks of both good and bad play. He also struggled when he was returned to the AHL in favor of Casey DeSmith or briefly Antti Niemi. However, at the end of the season Jarry’s line of a .908 save percentage, 2.77 goals against average, and .609 quality start percentage in 26 NHL appearance was more than respectable for his first year in the bigs. Has he proven without a doubt that he can be an NHL regular or reliable backup? No, but the potential is there.
The other reason that Jarry would seem to be a strange offer sheet target is that he is waiver-exempt. Jarry is too young and inexperienced to have lost his waiver protection. This means that a team could hypothetically offer far above market value and multiple years and the Penguins could simply match it and stash Jarry in the minors without a second thought. The only problem is that Pittsburgh especially could not leave Jarry in the AHL for a whole season, nevertheless multiple. Since Murray became a fixture in net for the Penguins in 2015-16, he has made 111 appearances in three seasons with no more than 49 games in any year. In that same time, the Penguins have used six other goaltenders. Excluding Fleury, who was the starter in Murray’s first season and split time with him the following year, Jarry, DeSmith, Niemi, Mike Condon and Jeff Zatkoff have had to make 59 appearances over the past three years – more than half of Murray’s games played. Pittsburgh’s injury-prone starter clearly needs multiple quality options behind him until he can prove himself over a full season. DeSmith, who admittedly outplayed fellow rookie Jarry last season but in 12 fewer starts, may struggle to even backup Murray this season, nevertheless replace him for short stretches with untested minor league journeyman John Muse – the only other Penguins goalie – as the backup. The Penguins need a third-string goalie who costs as close the minimum against the cap as possible. If Jarry was to sign an offer sheet for even $1.5MM AAV, Pittsburgh would struggle to move that contract back and forth or keep him on the roster all year long. A team with ample cap space and a well-off ownership group could easily improve on that offer as well. Only moving out salary or injured reserve space would conceivably allow the Penguins to keep Jarry at that price or more.
At the end of the day, an offer with just the right amount of salary and term would be hard for the Penguins to match in their current state. Sure, they could simply sign a proven veteran free agent to a minimum deal and move on, but losing a promising young netminder would be a blow. On the other side of the table, it would only cost a team at most a third-round pick – the compensation for any deal with an AAV under $2.03MM – to land a young, high-ceiling goalie who is still waiver-exempt. If Jarry excels at the NHL level, they made a great deal; if he struggles, he can be sent to the AHL risk-free for further development and may still turn out be a great deal. The rest of the league would hardly mind seeing Pittsburgh and wheeler-dealer GM Jim Rutherford baffled by an offer sheet as well. It seems to be a win-win. Will it happen?
Atlantic Notes: Larkin, Lightning, Moore
The Detroit Red Wings have two options in regards to signing restricted free agent Dylan Larkin this summer. The team could go short-term or long-term. With a solid, but hardly spectacular season, the Red Wings might want to wait and see how the 21-year-old develops over the next year or two and hand out short contracts to see if he’s worth the money. That makes sense considering the team is capped out with so many long-term deals having been handed out to veterans over the past few years.
However, NBC Sports’ James O’Brien writes that the team needs to look at the long-term option instead and lock up Larkin as quick as possible as he compares Larkin’s situation to that of Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, who signed an eight-year, $68MM deal a year ago, which is starting to look like a bargain after the many signings since then.
Larkin, who has shown that he’s one of the few answers in Detroit still hasn’t broken out with the Red Wings. While his rookie campaign showed plenty of promise with 23 goals, he’s failed to duplicate that number since. However, while he did just tally 16 goals a season ago, his 47 assists was a career-high along with his 63 points, suggesting he might be due for a breakout season. Signing Larkin to a long-term deal now while his value isn’t through the roof might be better than waiting another two years when they will be forced to shell out top dollar in the future with the cap constantly increasing.
- While it’s already been reported that the eight-year, $76MM extension that Nikita Kucherov signed will not take the Tampa Bay Lightning out of a potential Erik Karlsson trade, the team will have to make some moves if it does pull the trigger on a trade as the team has less than $3MM in cap space for this coming year. Brandon Schlager of the Sporting News writes that the most obvious candidates that would have to be moved would be forwards Ryan Callahan ($5.8MM AAV for two more years), Tyler Johnson ($5MM for six more years), Alex Killorn ($4.45MM for five more years) and defenseman Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM for one year).
- Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe attempts to break down what the Boston Bruins defense will look like next season as well as what the team should expect out of their top free agent target, John Moore. The scribe writes that general manager Don Sweeney hasn’t struck gold yet with his long-term free agent deals, pointing to the contracts handed out to Matt Beleskey and David Backes. Beleskey was an outright failure, while Backes has been average, at best. Moore is just 27 years old and will be playing already for his fifth team, which isn’t a good sign. What the team’s plans are for his usage is also unknown as if the team intends to put him on the team’s second-line defensive pairings, then the team would force either Torey Krug or Brandon Carlo to the third-line pairing, which doesn’t make sense either unless the team intends to move Krug. However, there is still no proof that Moore is good enough to be a top-four player.
Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings
Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Detroit’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agent: F Dylan Larkin — After a great start in his rookie year, there were a lot of questions after he struggled in his sophomore campaign when he put up just 32 points. However, the 21-year-old center brushed away any doubts this year, putting up 16 goals and a team-leading 63 points. With a team full of veterans, the Red Wings must begin to depend more and more on Larkin, who is developing into the franchise player they need to center one of their top lines. Add in a recent appearance at the IIHF World Championships where he helped Team USA win a bronze medal and he’s the key to Detroit’s rebuild.
Now coming off his entry-level deal, Larkin is in line for a significant raise from the $1.43MM deal he’s been on for the past three years. Not arbitration eligible, however, the negotiations might get ugly like the one that Andreas Athanasiou dealt with last year, especially with multiple quality players who will be restricted free agents this summer.
Other RFA’s: F Athanasiou, F Tyler Bertuzzi, F Martin Frk, F Matej Machovsky, F Anthony Mantha, F Zach Nastasiuk, F Matt Puempel, D Daniel Renouf.
Key Unrestricted Free Agent: D Mike Green — On a positive note, the team doesn’t have any pressing unrestricted free agents. While Green is quite an offensive defenseman, he’s also 32 years old and not necessarily in the team’s long-term plans. The team’s original plan was to trade the veteran blueliner to a playoff contender at the trade deadline and had hoped that he would provide the team with a big haul of picks and/or prospects. Instead, Green got hurt and missed the two weeks prior to the trade deadline and weren’t able to move Green.
While there has been some talk of bringing him back on a short-term deal, he might be able to get a bigger deal elsewhere, but considering defense is one of the team’s biggest weaknesses and not a lot of defensive prospects there to take his place, a reunion is certainly possible.
Other UFA’s: F David Booth, G Jared Coreau, F Turner Elson, F Matt Lorito, G Tom McCollum, F Ben Street, F Eric Tangradi.
Projected Cap Space: With all the bloated veteran contracts the Red Wings have on the books, cap space is something the team has had little of over the past few years. The team did get the contracts of Green, Tomas Tatar, and Petr Mrazek off the books to free up a little room, but they will likely need all of that to re-sign Larkin, Athanasiou, Mantha and Bertuzzi. While general manager Ken Holland says he doesn’t intend to sign any major free agents to long-term deals this summer, he did say he would look at players with shorter term deals, but in the end, the team hopes to bring in some of their youth to fill in the gaps this year.
Red Wings Notes: Larkin, Athanasiou, Fulcher
Drafting Dylan Larkin was the equivalent of hitting the NHL talent jackpot writes the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. Calling him the foundation of Detroit’s rebuilding process, Larkin fell to Detroit in the 2014 NHL Draft. St. James assesses that the 21-year-old center is captain material and that the Red Wings have a chance to build around a player that could lead them back to their familiar days of contention. Of course, the Red Wings have been reluctant to actually rebuild and instead, opt to sign free agents in the hopes of making the playoffs, which blocks the progress of younger players. Larkin was the exception, as his performance was too strong to ignore right out of his first training camp in 2015, and he’s been a mainstay on the roster since.
- St. James also answers questions about Andreas Athanasiou, the polarizing forward who dazzles with his speed and scoring prowess but perplexes with his inability to find regular ice time due to what appears to be conflicts with management. After holding out to start the 2017-18 season, Athanasiou did not live up to the billing Detroit was hoping for–but many in Hockeytown would argue he was never given the chance. She quotes head coach Jeff Blashill as saying… “that consistency level and work ethic and compete is going to be critical for AA.” It sounds like a tug of war between a player and management making some wonder if Athanasiou will find himself shipped out of town. St. James writes that with his numbers dropping, the return wouldn’t be what Detroit would want.
- Red Wings prospect Kaden Fulcher is featured in a London Free Press article, extolling the performance of the youngster who has been strong between the pipes for the Hamilton Bulldogs en route to a Memorial Cup appearance. Fulcher signed a three-year entry level contract with the Red Wings and MLive’s Ansar Khan explains that Fulcher’s improvement is a reflection of his work ethic. The Red Wings expect him to compete for a job in Grand Rapids and should that not pan out, he would go to either the Toledo Walleye of the ECHL or back to Hamilton for his overage junior year.
U.S. Announces 2018 Men’s National Roster
USA Hockey announced their initial 2018 national roster for the upcoming 2018 IIHF Men’s World Championships on May 4-20 in Copenhagen and Herning, Denmark, headlined by Chicago Blackhawks star Patrick Kane.
Kane, who announced he’d play this summer after his Blackhawks season ended with no trip to the playoffs, represented the U.S. twice in both the 2010 and 2014 Olympic Games, leading the U.S. to a silver medal in 2010, was named the captain of this team back on April 9. He will be joined by four others with World Championship experience, including Detroit Red Wings forward Dylan Larkin, New York Islanders forward Anders Lee, Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Connor Murphy and the Calgary Flames forward Johnny Gaudreau.
The one interesting roster note is the addition of 18-year-old Quinn Hughes, who is considered to be a likely top-10 pick in the upcoming NHL draft. The full roster can be found below:
G Scott Darling
G Keith Kincaid
G Charlie Lindgren
D Will Butcher
D Quinn Hughes
D Nick Jensen
D Alec Martinez
D Connor Murphy
D Jordan Oesterle
D Neal Pionk
F Cam Atkinson
F Blake Coleman
F Alex DeBrincat
F Johnny Gaudreau
F Brian Gibbons
F Patrick Kane
F Chris Kreider
F Dylan Larkin
F Anders Lee
F Sonny Milano
F Derek Ryan
F Tage Thompson
F Colin White
Red Wings Notes: Green, Goaltending, Larkin, Nielsen
Red Wings defenseman Mike Green’s surgery to repair his cervical spine was a successful one, GM Ken Holland told reporters, including Gregg Krupa of the Detroit News (Twitter link). Holland also noted that Green should be fully recovered for the start of training camp. The rearguard was shut down late in March and wasn’t healthy heading into the trade deadline which played a role in him not being traded.
The question now becomes whether or not Detroit shows interest in re-signing the pending unrestricted free agent. While Green’s offensive prowess isn’t what it once was, he still put up 33 points (8-25-33) in 66 games and their back end doesn’t have a lot of threats from the point. However, considering that he’s 32 years old and the fact that the Wings are in the midst of a rebuild, it may not make a lot of sense to bring him back unless he’s amenable to a short-term contract. Holland stated that a decision on whether or not to pursue a new deal with him may not be made until after the draft in June. Green made $6MM in each of the last three years and it’s likely that his next deal will carry a pay cut.
More from Detroit:
- Blues goaltender Carter Hutton is on Detroit’s radar for the offseason, reports MLive’s Ansar Khan. The 32-year-old is coming off a career year in which he led the league in goals-against average (2.09) and save percentage (.931). The Red Wings are in need of another goalie with the trade of Petr Mrazek prior to the trade deadline to play alongside Jimmy Howard, who has one more year on his deal with a cap hit of just under $5.3MM. Hutton’s salary was an even $1MM this season and he will undoubtedly command a significantly bigger deal on the open market this summer.
- Centers Dylan Larkin Frans Nielsen has committed to play at the upcoming World Championships, Khan notes (Twitter links). It will be Larkin’s fourth appearance in the tournament while Nielsen will be suiting up for the first time since 2012 (and eighth time overall). The tournament is set to be held in Nielsen’s native Denmark which likely plays a role in his decision to play this time around.
Red Wings Notes: Bertuzzi, Frk, Mrazek, Howard, Nielsen
After the Detroit Red Wings traded away winger Tomas Tatar last week at the trade deadline, the team has split his minutes in two directions. Prospect Tyler Bertuzzi has replaced Tatar’s spot in the lineup alongside Andreas Athanasiou and Dylan Larkin, while veteran Martin Frk has taken the departed forward’s power play minutes in hopes of proving worthy of returning to a top line in the future. So far, Bertuzzi has fared well in the two games he’s played in Tatar’s even-strength role, picking up two assists, while averaging more that 14 minutes of ice time. However, don’t expect that to stay that way next year, writes the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James.
While the team does want to get an extended look at Bertuzzi, what it’s really waiting for is next season. Then they will take long looks at winger Evgeny Svechnikov, the team’s first-rounder in 2015, and 2017 first-rounder Michael Rasmussen, who is expected to be the center of the future in Detroit. Rasmussen, is coming off a solid season in the WHL and might be ready to join the Red Wings next season. As for Svechnikov, the hope is that he is ready for a spot in Detroit next season, but has struggled at times in his first year in the AHL.
- St. James also adds that don’t expect too many call-ups this year as the Grand Rapids Griffins are still fighting for a playoff spot in AHL, so players like Svechnikov, Filip Hronek and Matt Puempel might not see a lot of time in Detroit as they are needed in Grand Rapids.
- In the same article, St. James writes that the team will have to also take a long look at backup goalie Jared Coreau, who was recalled from the Grand Rapids Griffins after the team traded away Petr Mrazek. She writes that the team has doubts he can be a quality NHL backup and with one year left on Jimmy Howard‘s contract, the team will be hard-pressed to find their future starter in one year. One possibility could be signing Mrazek back again in the offseason. With Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth already signed for next season, it seems unlikely that the Philadelphia Flyers will retain Mrazek, especially when he has a $4MM qualifying offer. Could Detroit make him their future No. 1?
- Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the team might consider extending Howard’s deal for one more year to give the team more time to find their goalie of the future. However, with the Red Wings looking to get as many picks as possible for their future, it would also make a lot of sense for the team to move him before the draft as team’s wouldn’t mind acquiring a veteran with just one year left on his deal.
- In the same story, Custance also takes a look at the way-too early protected list if there is an expansion draft in 2020 for the Seattle franchise, which seems inevitable. Sadly, the top two players the Red Wings would be forced to protect will be veterans Henrik Zetterberg and Frans Nielsen. The hope is that Zetterberg, who will be 39 by then, will have retired, which would free up a spot, however, Nielsen has a no-movement clause and then, at age 35, should not be on that list. However, the veteran, who would still have two years left on his deal at $5.25MM AAV at that point, is likely going to cost Detroit a quality player down the road.
Red Wings Notes: Howard, Larkin, Holland
MLive’s Ansar Khan reports that Detroit Red Wings goalie Jimmy Howard is slated to return for Saturday’s contest against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Howard was shelved with a lower body injury but Detroit’s bye week was a fortuitous opportunity for the veteran net minder to recover. Howard told DetroitRedWings.com’s Dana Wakiji that he’ll be ready for tomorrow’s game. In his last six starts, Howard has been 4-2 with a .952 save percentage, and a main reason the Red Wings have seen their fortunes trend up. Though they’re still out of the playoff hunt (and will stay that way most likely), Howard has been excellent for a team short on defense and elite talent.
- Khan takes questions in a mailbag next, indicating that he doesn’t expect any hitches as they did when Andreas Athanasiou held out as an RFA. Khan continues, writing that the Red Wings have $10MM with Mike Green and Petr Mrazek set to be free agents. With the cap rising as well, Khan doesn’t foresee any issues getting the important younger players, namely Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Athanasiou. Martin Frk and Tyler Bertuzzi are both in their final year of a contract but will come at a lower price than the aforementioned three.
- In another question, Khan writes that Henrik Zetterberg might have one season left before a new captain will have to be named. He sees Justin Abdelkader being the next Red Wing to wear the C while Larkin a future captain as well. Larkin was an alternate captain while playing in the World Juniors last May, but it wouldn’t be crazy to think that Larkin could be the next in line. Steve Yzerman was named captain at the ripe old age of 21, which just happens to be Larkin’s current age.
- The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James has a mailbag of her own, and gives her thoughts on the future of general manager Ken Holland. She believes he will still be around, either in the GM chair or as an adviser. She also believes that Larkin will be the first of the three young building blocks (Larkin-Mantha-Athanasiou) to be re-signed by Detroit.
Evening Snapshots: Slepyshev, Holland
As it was reported earlier, the Edmonton Journal’s Bruce McCurdy believes that Anton Slepyshev‘s availability is a “fire sale” sign that Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli has displayed for the entire league. McCurdy opines that the Oilers “appear poised to part company with yet another talented young Russian for pennies on the dollar.” Arguments abound for and against such a decision, with the former being that the young forward struggled with injuries and didn’t put together enough “excellent” nights to justify his keep. The latter argument poses that the youngster received an ample chance to display what he could do. Given little to no opportunity on special teams and logging limited minutes, McCurdy writes that the Russian posted impressive numbers during those limited chances–fleshed out further by advanced metrics. To be fair, McCurdy points out that only 40% of the Oilers goals occurred when Slepyshev was on the ice while his “pedestrian” numbers of 1 goal, and 3 points do little to help his case. While it appears to be another young player that the Oilers will ship out, one can only wonder how much longer the front office and coaching staff have before they’re the next to be booted.
- The Detroit News’ Bob Wojnowski guesses that the writing is on the wall for the Red Wings. All that’s left to decipher is who the architect will be for the inevitable rebuild: Ken Holland or someone else. Wojnowski writes that the Red Wings are no longer the elite team that will make a yearly playoff visit, but at least have some hope in the futures of Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou, and Anthony Mantha. Wojnowski quotes Holland as saying the Wings will either “stay pat or sell” at the deadline. Holland adds that he’s not in it for a rebuild (something he’s been consistently saying) and his job is to keep the team competitive. But he’s also not naive:
“I’ve been very fortunate to watch some great players on great teams, and I want to do that again. Sometimes your time runs out, but there is a plan, and we’re on our way back. Up until two years ago, we were making moves for the today, we weren’t bad enough to make moves for the future. At some point, you’re gonna pay the piper.”
Whether Detroit chooses to go forward with Holland or someone different remains to be seen. But even the executive who doesn’t want to go through a “painful” rebuild realizes that the days of buying, instead of selling, are over.
Who Is On Pace To Score 60 Points In 2017-18?
In 2016-17, only 42 NHLers hit the 60-point benchmark for the season. It was the lowest total since the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season (obviously), when only Martin St. Louis notched sixty, and down eleven from the 53 players who hit the mark two years earlier in 2014-15. However, with scoring up this season in the NHL, will the league increase it’s number of top scorers? Or will a greater depth and distribution of talent continue to limit players from reaching the high numbers of yesteryear?
As of now, with the 2017 segment of the season about to close, here are the players on pace for 60 points in 2017-18:
- Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 54 points in 37 games, Projection: 120 points
- Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 48 points in 37 games, Projection: 107 points
- John Tavares, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
- Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
- Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
- Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
- Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 45 points in 38 games, Projection: 97 points
- Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 43 points in 37 games, Projection: 95 points
- Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 44 points in 39 games, Projection: 93 points
- Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames – Currently: 41 points in 38 games, Projection: 89 points
- Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 41 points in 39 games, Projection: 86 points
- Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals – Currently: 41 points in 40 games, Projection: 84 points
- Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 40 points in 39 games, Projection: 84 points
- Anders Lee, New York Islanders – Currently: 39 points in 38 games, Projection: 84 points
- Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks – Currently: 38 points in 37 games, Projection: 84 points
- Brock Boeser*, Vancouver Canucks – Currently: 38 points in 36 games, Projection: 84 points
- Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 41 points in 41 games, Projection: 82 points
- Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins – Currently: 32 points in 29 games, Projection: 82 points
- Jon Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 34 points in 33 games, Projection: 81 points
- Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals – Currently: 39 points in 40 games, Projection: 80 points
- Taylor Hall, New Jersey Devils – Currently: 36 points in 36 games, Projection: 80 points
- Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Vincent Trocheck, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Mathew Barzal*, New York Islanders – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
- Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 35 games, Projection: 78 points
- Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 38 points in 41 games, Projection: 76 points
- Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 35 points in 38 games, Projection: 75 points
- David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
- Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
- Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
- David Perron, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 30 games, Projection: 74 points
- Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 34 points in 38 games, Projection: 73 points
- Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
- Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
- Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 32 points in 34 games, Projection: 73 points
- Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 29 games, Projection: 72 points
- Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
- Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
- Vlad Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 32 points in 37 games, Projection: 71 points
- Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild – Currently: 33 points in 39 games, Projection: 70 points
- Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 18 points in 15 games, Projection: 70 points
- Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames – Currently: 32 points in 38 games, Projection: 69 points
- Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings – Currently: 31 points in 37 games, Projection: 69 points
- John Klingberg, Dallas Stars – Currently: 32 points in 39 games, Projection: 67 points
- William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 36 games, Projection: 66 points
- Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 28 points in 33 games, Projection: 66 points
- Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 29 points in 35 games, Projection: 66 points
- Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Alexander Radulov, Dallas Stars – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
- Clayton Keller*, Arizona Coyotes – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
- John Carlson, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
- Reilly Smith, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 28 points in 36 games, Projection: 64 points
- Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 30 points in 39 games, Projection: 63 points
- P.K. Subban, Nashville Predators – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Teuvo Teravainen, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
- James Neal, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 62 points
- Kyle Turris, Nashville Predators – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 62 points
- Danton Heinen*, Boston Bruins – Currently: 26 points in 33 games, Projection: 62 points
- Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
- Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders – Currently: 28 points in 38 games, Projection: 61 points
- Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks – Currently: 26 points in 35 games, Projection: 61 points
- Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild – 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
- Rickard Rakell, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
- Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 61 points
- Erik Haula, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 61 points
- Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 37 games, Projection: 60 points
- Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins- Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
- Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points