Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings Inching Closer To Contract
Among the names left on the restricted free agent list, Dylan Larkin stands out as a potential franchise linchpin. Though William Nylander and Sam Reinhart are important forwards, and Noah Hanifin, Darnell Nurse, Shea Theodore and Josh Morrissey are all talented defensmen, it’s Larkin that could be the face of the Detroit Red Wings for quite some time and probably the most important contract to still be worked out. Larkin recently said that he believed something would be done before training camp, and yesterday reiterated that fact to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox.
Something’s coming. I’ve told everyone I think it’ll be before training camp. It’s right there. I’m just waiting to iron out the details.
There have been reports that the Red Wings have been working towards a five or six year contract, but Larkin indicated that there are “different offers out there” that could also include a shorter bridge deal. That depends on how much room GM Ken Holland and the Detroit front office can clear up this summer, given that the Red Wings only have $2.83MM in cap space. Larkin would take up more than that even on a bridge deal, meaning there is plenty more work to be done for the club over the next few weeks.
Teams can go over the cap in the offseason (up to 10% or $7.95MM), and the Red Wings still have Johan Franzen‘s cap hit that can be placed on long-term injured reserve for additional cap flexibility. But if Larkin does end up signing a long-term deal, it would take up a considerable amount of space given that he has just four years of restricted free agency remaining.
Even with the crunch that is occurring right now for Detroit, the may rather get Larkin under contract for some of his unrestricted free agent years given that their cap situation starts clearing up as soon as 2019-20. With nearly $18MM scheduled to come off the books in the form of Gustav Nyquist, Jimmy Howard, Thomas Vanek and Niklas Kronwall, the team can certainly afford to give the next wave of talent substantial raises. As a team the Red Wings are getting closer to financial freedom and a real chance at a rebuild, and Larkin’s next deal will set the precedent for all the players that come after him. It might still take a little while to work through, but at this point both sides seem confident something will get done.
Poll: Who Are The Best Centers In The NHL?
The NHL Network lit up the hockey world recently when they revealed their list of the Top 20 Centers in the league, ranking Connor McDavid as the best in the league ahead of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The number four slot was occupied by Auston Matthews, which ruffled some feathers, while the reigning Stanley Cup champions Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom were down at 13 and 14 respectively.
The Penguins (Croby, Malkin), Maple Leafs (Matthews, John Tavares), Capitals (Kuznetsov, Backstrom) and Oilers (McDavid, Draisaitl) all had two names on the list, while other potential options like Eric Staal, Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Toews, Brayden Schenn, Brayden Point, Ryan O’Reilly, Sean Monahan and Dylan Larkin were all absent.
Since the NHL Network’s fan vote was so different—Jay Beagle ranked 20th on the list—we thought we’d do our own tally here at PHR. In the poll below we’ve listed many options and are asking you to vote for your top group by selecting 10 names. Does Matthews stay in the top five? Can defensive wizards like Anze Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron climb up the rankings? Does the PHR community believe in William Karlsson? Cast your vote for the top 10 centers in the league and make sure to leave a comment explaining your choices.
Who are the best centers in the NHL?
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Sidney Crosby 12% (1,249)
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Connor McDavid 11% (1,161)
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Evgeni Malkin 8% (837)
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John Tavares 8% (817)
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Patrice Bergeon 7% (751)
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Auston Matthews 7% (719)
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Nathan MacKinnon 7% (711)
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Steven Stamkos 6% (612)
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Anze Kopitar 6% (607)
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Mark Scheifele 4% (449)
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Tyler Seguin 4% (412)
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Evgeny Kuznetsov 3% (340)
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Jonathan Toews 3% (315)
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Nicklas Backstrom 3% (311)
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Jack Eichel 2% (243)
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Aleksander Barkov 2% (168)
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Ryan Getzlaf 1% (158)
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Ryan O'Reilly 1% (102)
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Sean Couturier 1% (100)
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Mathew Barzal 1% (89)
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Leon Draisaitl 1% (80)
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William Karlsson 1% (77)
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Brayden Schenn 1% (55)
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Joe Thornton 0% (52)
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Dylan Larkin 0% (51)
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Brayden Point 0% (48)
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Sean Monahan 0% (46)
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Nazem Kadri 0% (46)
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Ryan Johansen 0% (41)
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Matt Duchene 0% (38)
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Eric Staal 0% (35)
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Paul Stastny 0% (32)
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Bo Horvat 0% (24)
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Vincent Trocheck 0% (22)
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Nico Hischier 0% (19)
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Mikko Koivu 0% (16)
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Mika Zibanejad 0% (13)
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Derek Stepan 0% (8)
Total votes: 10,854
[Mobile users click here to vote]
*Though Claude Giroux has played center for much of his career, his absence from the NHL Network list means he was likely left off the ballot. We’ve similarly left him out of the poll, along with other part-time centers like Joe Pavelski, Blake Wheeler and Logan Couture. If you feel as though any of them should be included in this group, make sure to leave a comment down below.
Plenty Of Talent Remains Unsigned Among Restricted Free Agents
Now that all of the arbitration hearings have concluded and any player filings resolved, 21 restricted free agents remain unsigned around the league. These players must have a contract by December 1st in order to play at all this season, otherwise they will have to sit out the whole season. On the list are several players who play a huge role on their respective teams, and are likely in negotiations on long-term contracts.
Dylan Larkin, perhaps the most talented offensive player on the Detroit Red Wings, expects to sign before training camp begins in a little over a month. There have been reports that he’s looking at a five or six year contract, which would take him right to unrestricted free agency. The talented forward scored 62 points last season and is a huge part of the future for the Red Wings, but the team is currently in salary cap trouble and likely needs to make a move of some sort before the start of the year to fit Larkin in.
William Nylander has also been clear in his desire for a long-term deal, but isn’t stressing about the negotiations. The Toronto Maple Leafs will face questions over the next few seasons of how to fit all of their talented forwards under the cap, and the first real step towards that salary structure is getting something done with Nylander. The 22-year old forward finished with 61 points for the second year in a row, but could take another step forward if the Maple Leafs second powerplay unit rebounds in 2018-19.
Among defensemen, Noah Hanifin, Shea Theodore and Josh Morrissey stand out as some of the most important names. Hanifin’s contract is finally on the front burner after a busy arbitration schedule for the Calgary Flames, and things are progressing in a “positive” direction. When the Flames bought out Troy Brouwer‘s contract last week they gave themselves some flexibility for signing Hanifin to a long-term deal, but could always go the bridge route to make sure he fits into their organization properly. Theodore developed into a key piece for the Vegas Golden Knights this season after starting in the minor leagues due to a roster crunch, and should be rewarded accordingly on his new deal. The Golden Knights haven’t been shy about locking up some of their key players recently, and Theodore should likely be no different.
Morrissey is interesting, given the uncertainty around the Jets blue line in general. Jacob Trouba is once again on a short-term deal and could bolt for unrestricted free agency in 2020, while Tyler Myers is scheduled to become a UFA next summer. If the team has plans on retaining either of them they’ll have to be careful with how much money they commit to Morrissey, despite his obvious talent and fit for the club.
The full list of restricted free agents is below:
Ondrej Kase (ANA)
Nick Ritchie (ANA)
Marek Langhamer (ARZ)
Sam Reinhart (BUF)
Noah Hanifin (CGY)
Hunter Shinkaruk (CGY)
Dylan Larkin (DET)
Matt Puempel (DET)
Darnell Nurse (EDM)
Michael McCarron (MTL)
Kerby Rychel (MTL)
Kevin Rooney (NJD)
Steven Santini (NJD)
Miles Wood (NJD)
Jordan Schmaltz (STL)
William Nylander (TOR)
Shea Theodore (VGK)
Eric Comrie (WPG)
Nicolas Kerdiles (WPG)
J.C. Lipon (WPG)
Josh Morrissey (WPG)
Dylan Larkin Expects To Sign Before Training Camp
There are still some big name restricted free agents that remain unsigned around the league, including Dylan Larkin of the Detroit Red Wings. After leading his club in scoring last season Larkin wasn’t eligible for arbitration and was in no rush to get a new contract early in the offseason. Larkin was a guest coach at the Red Wings’ youth camp today, where he spoke to reporters including Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press:
I feel pretty confident that something will get done before training camp. No worries about it.
St. James tweets that the two sides are looking at a five or six-year contract, which would buy out at least one unrestricted free agent year. Every time that you take away UFA seasons from a talented young player the cap hit of the deal will increase, something that the Red Wings will have to carefully navigate in contract talks. The team currently has just $2.8MM in cap space, though Johan Franzen‘s contract will eventually be placed on long-term injured reserve. The team can also be up to $7.95MM (10% of the cap) over the ceiling during the offseason, meaning they could sign Larkin and then make additional moves before the year begins.
With 63 points last season, Larkin finally started fulfilling his potential as a top center in the NHL. His physical gifts are obvious, blessed as one of the league’s fastest skaters and possessing high-end puck skills and playmaking ability. His 39 even-strength assists put him behind only Connor McDavid, Claude Giroux, Artemi Panarin, Steven Stamkos and Mathew Barzal, while his 6.9% shooting percentage will almost certainly improve going forward. Logging nearly 20 minutes a night, Larkin established himself as the future in Detroit and could easily take another step forward next season after turning 22 just a few days ago.
The Red Wings are still in trouble financially for the next few seasons, but are slowly turning things around through the draft. With Filip Zadina and Joe Veleno joining the organization from this draft’s first round, and other young players like Dennis Cholowski and Michael Rasmussen closing in on the NHL, there could be a youth movement coming in the next few seasons. Larkin will be the spearhead for that movement, and should get some contract certainty in the next few weeks.
Atlantic Notes: Reinhart, Panthers, Forsbacka Karlsson, Canadiens
The recent restricted free agent deals signed by Calgary’s Elias Lindholm (6-year, $29.1MM deal) and Minnesota’s Jason Zucker (6-year, $27.5MM deal) may be interesting, but no one might be more intrigued by those deals than Buffalo Sabres restricted free agent Sam Reinhart.
The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington cites that Reinhart has quite similar numbers to that of both Lindholm and Zucker. Reinhart is coming off a 25-goal, 50-point season, while Lindholm tallied 16 goals and 44 points. Zucker potted 33 goals for 66 points. So a long-term extension could look similar to those two deal.
However, Harrington also adds that the Sabres are likely maneuvering for a shorter bridge deal as the team still isn’t sure what they have in Reinhart. He was drafted in the same 2014 draft that produced Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, who is also looking for a long-term deal. Yet, Larkin is the face of Detroit’s franchise, while Reinhart is not with players like Jack Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin around.
- Jameson Olive of the Florida Panthers website reports that he recently interviewed Panthers’ general manager Dave Tallon, who said there are still a number of players available out there that the GM likes, so don’t be surprised if the Panthers aren’t done dealing. The Panthers have been relatively quiet this offseason, although they did trade for Ottawa’s Mike Hoffman earlier this year as well as sign goaltender Michael Hutchinson to a one-year deal through free agency. The team’s biggest addition is likely to come from their youth as prospects like Henrik Borgstrom and Owen Tippett are expected to take on full-time roles with the team this season. However, could a trade still be in the works?
- The Athletic’s Joe McDonald (subscription required) writes that the Boston Bruins expect that prospect Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson will challenge for the third-line center job in training camp this year. The 21-year-old, who was a second-round pick back in 2015, posted 15 goals and 32 points in his first season in the AHL and hopes to make the jump next season. “He’s got the ability,” Providence Bruins coach Jay Leach said. “He has a high level of skill and can make high-end plays, the kind of plays you need your third-line center to make at the NHL level. He went through a year last year where he turned into a professional hockey player. He was playing against men, and there were some adjustments, and he still had a pretty solid year.”
- Brendan Kelly of the Montreal Gazette notes that many people are wondering why the Montreal Canadiens left $8MM in cap room sitting around last season when they could have spent it to upgrade their team. With no free agents to worry about, the team has almost the same amount of money available to spend this season, but once again seems content not to spend that money, suggesting the team would rather save that money for their profits. He wonders if Montreal fans are willing to accept a bargain-basement team.
Atlantic Notes: Marner, Karlsson, Larkin
While Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews acknowledged recently that discussions have started regarding a contract extension, there hasn’t been a similar note for winger Mitch Marner, who also is entering the final year of his entry-level deal. Ken Campbell of The Hockey News argues that the 21-year-old may be wise to wait until next summer to work out a new deal instead of doing an early extension.
Marner has been quite productive through his first two NHL seasons, recording 61 points in his rookie campaign and 69 last year. He managed to do so despite not spending a lot of time with Matthews which is also notable. With Toronto adding top free agent center John Tavares this summer, there’s a good chance that Marner will play with either him or Matthews which could result in a nice jump in his point total. If that’s the case, he can likely get a bigger contract next summer with a bit more leverage than he currently has now.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- There is nothing imminent on the trade front for the Lightning when it comes to Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson. Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) characterizes the discussions as not having got particularly close to a deal and adds that some feel that Ottawa isn’t in any rush to move him and are prepared to wait to get the price they want. Of course, further complicating things is that Tampa Bay may have to involve a third team to offload enough payroll to take on Karlsson’s $6.5MM contract as the Sens aren’t expected to be willing to take significant salary back in return.
- While the Red Wings have yet to lock up RFA center Dylan Larkin, the soon-to-be 22-year-old told NHL.com’s Nick Cotsonika that there are no major issues thus far in their contract negotiations. Larkin is coming off of a career year that saw him collect 63 points to lead the team in scoring and will likely be bypassing the bridge contract. It was reported earlier this month that Detroit is looking to do a five-year contract here but that they may have to go to six to get something done.
Remaining Restricted Free Agents
We’re getting closer to turning the calendar over to August, and there is still a lot of work to do for teams around the NHL. 10 arbitration cases remain unsettled, including for star players like William Karlsson and Mark Stone. Both will be extremely interesting to follow, as their respective teams have tough decisions on their hands.
For the Vegas Golden Knights, do you hand out a long-term expensive contract to a player that is still relatively unproven. Though Karlsson scored 43 goals this season he had just 18 career tallies beforehand, and finished this season with an impossible 23.4% shooting percentage. There is almost no chance that he can maintain that rate going forward, meaning his huge 2017-18 season may be a career-high. On the other side of that coin though is the increased opportunity he was given after switching teams, which could provide a realistic chance for him to be a 30-goal, 65-point player going forward. Signing him now would likely get you a bit of a discount on that type of scoring threat, though Vegas would assume almost all of the risk.
In Ottawa, there’s no clear direction on how the team will deal with Stone’s impending unrestricted free agency. Obviously one of the team’s most talented players, an arbitration award of one year would stop the Senators from negotiating with Stone’s camp until January on any potential extension and could make him a prime trade candidate. The 26-year old posted his fourth consecutive 20-goal season in 2017-18 despite playing in just 58 games. With all the turmoil in Ottawa it could be difficult to convince him to stick around long-term.
Beyond the arbitration cases though there is an incredible amount of talent left on the RFA board. Dylan Larkin, William Nylander, Sam Reinhart, Shea Theodore, Josh Morrissey and many others remain unsigned and could all be looking at expensive long-term deals with their respective clubs. These players are already excellent players in the NHL before they’ve even become eligible for arbitration and could really grind the offseason to a halt if they decide to hold out. There’s no indication that anyone is planning a long negotiation, but we’re now almost a month into the signing period without any deals.
Below is the full list of unsigned restricted free agents:
Ondrej Kase (ANA)
Nick Ritchie (ANA)
Marek Langhamer (ARZ)
Sam Reinhart (BUF)
Noah Hanifin (CGY)
Garnet Hathaway (CGY) – Scheduled for arbitration, July 30
Hunter Shinkaruk (CGY)
Patrik Nemeth (COL) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 4
Gemel Smith (DAL) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 1
Dylan Larkin (DET)
Matt Puempel (DET)
Darnell Nurse (EDM)
Michael McCarron (MTL)
Kerby Rychel (MTL)
Miikka Salomaki (NSH) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 2
Kevin Rooney (NJD)
Steven Santini (NJD)
Miles Wood (NJD)
Kevin Hayes (NYR) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 2
Ryan Spooner (NYR) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 4
Cody Ceci (OTT) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 1
Mark Stone (OTT) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 3
Robert Hagg (PHI)
Jordan Schmaltz (STL)
William Nylander (TOR)
William Karlsson (VGK) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 4
Shea Theodore (VGK)
Eric Comrie (WPG)
Nicolas Kerdiles (WPG)
J.C. Lipon (WPG)
Josh Morrissey (WPG)
Nic Petan (WPG)
Snapshots: Offer Sheets, Hall, O’Gara
With a limited pool of quality unrestricted free agents this year and quite a few impressive names among restricted free agents available, one has to wonder whether this might be the year that a team makes an attempt to pry away one of them with an offer sheet.
Sure, no team has used an offer sheet since 2013 when the Calgary Flames attempted to sign center Ryan O’Reilly away from the Colorado Avalanche. It didn’t work and since then, there hasn’t been one. Yet with names like Noah Hanifin, Dylan Larkin and William Nylander still available, you would think a team might attempt to go the offer-sheet route.
However, Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that won’t be happening this year, if again. The scribe informally polled nine general managers, who all collectively said there would be no offer sheets handed out this summer. One reason is that general managers see it as a way to drive up salaries, which they don’t want, and since almost all offer sheets are matched, then what would be the point? Custance adds that the compensation for offer sheets must be changed, so teams might be more willing to let a player go.
- Chris Ryan of nj.com analyzes the success of Hart Trophy winners the following year they won, as he wonders how New Jersey Devils Taylor Hall will respond next season after winning the Hart Trophy with a 39-goal and 93-point season. While most of the previous winners (going all the way back to the 2006 season) saw a decline in their play the following year, most of them still put up solid numbers and still were in the voting for the Hart Trophy the following year, even if they didn’t win it. Edmonton’s Connor McDavid finished fifth in the voting the following year, while 2016 Hart Trophy winner Patrick Kane finished sixth the next season.
- Fluto Shinzawa of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that former Boston Bruins defenseman Rob O’Gara, who was traded at the trade deadline to the New York Rangers as part of the Nick Holden trade felt the trade was bittersweet. The 25-year-old blueliner was still on his entry-level contract and had only played 11 NHL games before the trade, but the four-year Yale University product had already lost some faith in him. In a league where youth thrives, O’Gara had already run out of time as he failed to crack Boston’s rotation and was often passed over for promotion by younger defenseman. In New York, however, he got a legitimate chance to take on a more permanent role, as he played in 22 games, a role he hopes to hold onto this season.
Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings Progressing Towards Contract
The Detroit Red Wings already reached new contracts this summer with players like Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Bertuzzi, but have one key restricted free agent still remaining. That’s Dylan Larkin, who may be the most talented player on the Red Wings roster an a core piece of what the team wants to do going forward. Without arbitration rights there isn’t much of a rush to get a Larkin deal done, but Craig Custance of The Athletic reports that there is little doubt on the player’s side that something will get done in the next few weeks. Larkin told Custance that he doesn’t think negotiations will continue into September, though obviously nothing is guaranteed at this point.
Custance opines that the deal will be around five or six years, meaning Larkin would be giving up some of his scheduled unrestricted free agent seasons. Despite Larkin still only being 21 years old, he is on track to hit UFA status four years from now when he’s 25. Any years included in a deal past that would start to dramatically increase the contract’s cap hit, something the Red Wings have to be careful with at this point. The team has around $2.8MM in cap space remaining this summer, and though they can move Johan Franzen to long-term injured reserve to get a little more flexibility are likely going to have to trade another contract once Larkin’s deal comes through.
The speedy forward scored 63 points last season and could be demanding quite a substantial raise on his entry-level contract, meaning the Red Wings might need some short-term salary relief to fit everyone in. Next summer a huge amount of money comes off the books due to the expiring contracts of players like Gustav Nyqust, Niklas Kronwall and Jimmy Howard, but there will need to be players signed to replace them as well. Though Detroit had an incredible draft, adding a handful of blue chip prospects to a pool that had been extremely shallow the last few years, you can’t expect all of them to step in next season and make an impact.
A Larkin deal is unavoidable and important, but the Red Wings will have more work to do this summer even after he puts pen to paper. How long that contract extends into his free agent years will have a real impact on how GM Ken Holland and the rest of the Detroit front office navigate the rest of the offseason, and even the early part of the 2018-19 campaign.
East Notes: Larkin, Red Wings, Penguins
The Red Wings are focusing on a long-term contract for restricted free agent forward Dylan Larkin, reports Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. She notes that Detroit’s preference is to sign him to a five-year deal but that they could have to go to six to get a deal done. A five-year term would buy out the remainder of Larkin’s RFA-eligible years but only get rid of one UFA-eligible season which isn’t something teams often try to do. On the other hand, doing that would be a way to get some longer-term stability while keeping the salary cap hit slightly lower which could be quite useful for a team that is once again pegged to be right up against the cap in 2018-19.
Elsewhere out East:
- Still with Detroit, they are looking at adding someone from outside the franchise to their front office, notes Gregg Krupa of The Detroit News. The Red Wings have lost several executives in recent years, including Steve Yzerman, Jim Nill, plus scouts Mark Leach and David Kolb which has left them lacking in certain areas. With former players Jiri Fischer, Dan Cleary, Shawn Horcoff, and Tyler Wright now in key positions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to add someone with some experience.
- While the Penguins have added another center to the fold with the signing of Derek Grant earlier today, GM Jim Rutherford told Josh Yohe of The Athletic (Twitter link) that the move isn’t a precursor to a trade. Instead, it gives them more flexibility. It had been suggested last weekend that Pittsburgh could look at trying Derick Brassard on the wing and move him up in the lineup. With Grant giving them an extra center in the fold, that looks like more of a realistic possibility now.