Atlantic Notes: Hoffman, Kane, Red Wings Rebuild
While a lot of talk about the Ottawa Senators currently revolves around defenseman Erik Karlsson, who will become a free agent in 2019 and expects top dollar, the Hockey News’ Lyle Richardson writes that a deal isn’t likely to happen any time soon as general manager Pierre Dorion still has hope that he can eventually work out an extension when the two parties can begin negotiating next July.
However, Richardson instead suggests the team might focus on moving some other pieces this season, especially pointing a finger at center Mike Hoffman. The 28-year-old will have two years remaining at 5.19MM AAV after this season, which increases his value. While his numbers are a little down (he’s only scored once in his last nine games), Hoffman is still in line for a solid 20-goal season as he currently has nine goals and 13 assists in 30 games. On top of that, he has put up 20 goals in each of his last three seasons.
Besides that, players such as Cody Ceci and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are other trade options, according to Richardson, but considering they are 23 and 25, respectively, the team may want to keep their youth if the goal is to rebuild the team. Bobby Ryan, Dion Phaneuf and Derick Brassard are also trade possibilities, but even less likely as all three have modified no-trade clauses and because of their high salaries, are unlikely to be going anywhere.
- In the same article, Richardson writes the Buffalo Sabres are not likely to trade forward Evander Kane before the upcoming holiday trade freeze (Dec. 19 to 26). It’s more likely the team will make a move after that as they are still trying to raise his pricetag. The 26-year-old looks to be having a career year as he already has 31 points this season in 33 contests, nearly a point a game, along with 14 goals. Richardson writes that several teams are likely to bid on Kane, including the San Jose Sharks, the St. Louis Blues, the Anaheim Ducks and the Calgary Flames, although few of them are good fits.
- Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) compares the Toronto Maple Leafs roster and to the rebuilding plan of the Detroit Red Wings, pointing out where Detroit stands when it comes to building a franchise like the Maple Leafs. Custance writes that the obvious missing piece on the Red Wings is the lack of a superstar like Auston Matthews, but there some of the other pieces are present on the Red Wings roster. He compares Mitch Marner to that of Anthony Mantha, William Nylander to that of Dylan Larkin and Nazem Kadri to that of prospect Michael Rasussen and keeps going. Among many conclusions, Custance points out the lack of a superstar as well as the team’s need to grab a franchise-changing defenseman and goaltender, but feels Detroit might not be that far away if luck rolls their way.
East Notes: Red Wings, Islanders Arena, Senators
Despite winning just once in their last 11 games, the Red Wings haven’t shifted to sell mode just yet, reports TSN’s Bob McKenzie on TSN 1050 (audio link). As a result of what is looking like a fairly weak Atlantic Division, they’re still within striking distance of a playoff spot, sitting five points out heading into play on Friday. If that time does come, however, McKenzie notes that the only true untouchable for Detroit will be Dylan Larkin, who has rebounded nicely after a disappointing sophomore campaign. He adds that wingers Anthony Mantha and Andreas Athanasiou are players that would fall just outside that category but would require a significant overpayment to acquire. Realistically, their most marketable trade chip would be pending UFA defenseman Mike Green, whose offensive prowess would be a boost to several contenders around the league, assuming they can fit in his $6MM cap hit.
More from the East:
- There could be something concrete on the Islanders’ Belmont Park arena proposal in the somewhat near future. Newsday’s Jim Baumbach reports via Twitter that a decision on which development proposal to accept (from the Islanders or NYCFC) could come within the next three weeks. Team owner Jon Ledecky acknowledged earlier this month that there is no current backup arena plan in place should their proposal not be accepted. Under their agreement with Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the team can opt out of its 25-year arena lease in January which lines up well with this potential timeline.
- Senators owner Eugene Melnyk met with the media in advance of Saturday’s outdoor game and spoke of how he has been “underwriting” the team in recent years. When questioned about whether he would consider moving the team, he ruled it out for the time being but suggested he’d be open to doing so down the road (via Luke Fox of Sportsnet): “If it becomes a disaster, yes. If you start not seeing crowds showing up, yes,” he said. “But, for now, we are on the cusp of doing OK.” Despite making the Eastern Conference Final last season, Ottawa ranks 25th in the league in attendance.
East Notes: Red Wings, Sabres, Capitals
The Athletic’s Prashanth Iyer hands out some quarterly grades (subscription needed) for the Red Wings and there were some surprises for Iyer in the first 20+ games. Iyer lists Jonathan Ericsson and Luke Glendening as a couple players who earned better marks for improved play while youngsters Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha both received As for their strong, team leading performances thus far. Iyer points out that Detroit has seen some modest improvement from last season, but it’s in the special teams where they’ve seen jumps, which has certainly helped their bubble-team playoff hopes. He does point out, however, that the 5v5 play will need to improve, or the Wings will be on the outside looking in for the second consecutive season.
- Sportsnet’s Rory Boylen writes that despite tanking and acquiring a star in Jack Eichel, the Sabres blueprint of suffering through lean years to get top talent hasn’t worked as they planned. Now, as they sink to the bottom of the Eastern Conference, the losing appears to be taking its toll on not only the fanbase, but players both on the current roster and those who went to playoff-ready teams. Boylen points out that for every success story in Toronto, Pittsburgh or Chicago, there are the Edmonton and Colorado cautionary tales that reveal a circle of hell that revolves around missing the playoffs and drafting high only to see little in return. Buffalo seems to be trapped, once again eyeing a top pick in 2018 with an 82% chance of not even getting that top pick. Worse, it’s shedding that “culture of losing” which has ensnared Sabres present and past. Changing the front office and coaching staff hasn’t changed much, and though it will take time, the Sabres are mired in a negative cycle that is challenging to escape.
- Are the Capitals next to see a decline in play? ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski listed a number of reasons why dark days may be ahead for Washington, who has come oh-so-close to turning that corner in capturing a Stanley Cup. And yet, it’s always found a way to be stopped–be it the always vexing Pittsburgh Penguins or a key injury at the most inopportune time, the Caps could never find a way to maneuver around that last hurdle to secure as much as a Cup Final appearance. Wyshynski writes that optimism remains in the organization but they’re certainly inching closer to that “iceberg” that could ultimately sink the Caps once and for all.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Detroit Red Wings
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on.
What are the Red Wings most thankful for?
Recovering from an early six game slide. When the Red Wings started 4-1, early doom-and-gloom prognosticators wondered if Detroit would buck trends and surprise with a stronger 2017-18. Then came six straight losses, rumors of head coach Jeff Blashill’s job security, and concerns that it would be a long and painful season. They righted the ship, stringing some wins together and now sit even at 8-8-2. Disaster was averted, but there are signs that significant struggles wait ahead.
Who are the Red Wings most thankful for?
Dylan Larkin, and Anthony Mantha. Both young players are key to any type of rebuilding plan Detroit has. They haven’t disappointed. Larkin has looked more comfortable centering a line, while Mantha has been every bit of the goal scoring presence Detroit envisioned when they drafted him. It cannot be understated how important it is that in order for the Red Wings to return to prominence, the younger players must deliver. Larkin and Mantha’s strong play in the first month has been crucial to the present and future success of the team.
What would the Red Wings be even more thankful for?
A young, top pairing defenseman. About 75% of the league wants one of these, too, but the Red Wings have been searching, unsuccessfully, for this since
Nicklas Lidstrom‘s retirement. Despite the strong play of their goaltenders and the younger players, the defense has been shaky. Niklas Kronwall has been better, Nick Jensen has been steady and Mike Green has been a boon offensively. But they can’t rely on them for the long term when it comes to top pairing minutes. Green will most likely be shipped
out to fetch draft picks or a younger impact player, and Kronwall’s knee is a liability. Trevor Daley, brought in to help the offense, has been a strong skater but only has one point in 18 games. The Red Wings, simply put, need help on the blue line. At some point, the goaltending will come back to earth, putting more pressure on a defensive corps that is average.
What should be on the Red Wings’ Holiday Wish List?
Looking ahead, and though it’s not what general manager Ken Holland wants, Detroit needs to have another high draft pick. Yes, it’s a crapshoot with the lottery system, as last year’s draft showed with Colorado winning under 30% of their games and getting a fourth overall pick for their performance. But the Red Wings need to get elite talent in order to be competitive again, and picking in the top five is one way to do so. Their wish list should also include some crafty trades to stockpile draft picks. The days of hoodwinking other teams and finding Henrik Zetterbergs and Pavel Datsyuks late in the draft are over. They need enough where they can package picks, trade up, and have a greater chance of grabbing talent in the first and second round.
Red Wings Notes: Mantha, Bertuzzi, Blashill
Anthony Mantha has learned quite a bit writes the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. She writes that his rise in scoring is tied to his work ethic, which included an improvement to his skating and notes that the 23-year-old hasn’t gone more than three games without a goal. Paired with 21-year-old Dylan Larkin often this year, much has been made about how the younger generation needs to take the torch and lead the rebuilding Red Wings into a new era. Mantha has 13 points in 16 games (7-6) while Larkin has 14 points (2-12). Mantha is on pace to become the goal scorer the Red Wings envisioned him to be when they drafted him in 2013. With both playing well, and having Andreas Athanasiou back, the younger kids are injecting much needed speed and skill into the lineup.
- St. James continues, reporting that while winger Tyler Bertuzzi is closer to return, a spot in Detroit isn’t as open as it once was. With newly acquired Scott Wilson bringing “grit” and with Detroit winning more than losing recently, it will take some change for him to be re-inserted into the lineup. St. James indicates that Bertuzzi and 2015 first round pick Evgeny Svechnikov are the top candidates to be shuttled to Detroit when changes are needed.
- As for head coach Jeff Blashill, St. James indicates that a recent winning streak and stronger play, especially on the road, have taken some pressure off of the bench boss. She points out that after they finish up their road trip, Detroit has 13 of its next 15 games at home. Should Detroit play well during that stretch, St. James believes that a playoff berth could be within reach.
Red Wings Notes: Rebuilding, LCA, Parenteau, Athanasiou
After 25 years of sustained success where the team didn’t miss the playoffs, the Detroit Red Wings are entering a new phase of reality—and it will be painful writes the Athletic’s Corey Pronman. There is an entire generation of Detroit fans who didn’t know the playoffs without the Red Wings in them, but that will become a harsh truth as Detroit attempts to restock a steady–but hardly elite cupboard of talent. Pronman identifies Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, and Andreas Athanasiou as the pillars of hope for Detroit, but they are hardly the likes of Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov or Nicklas Lidstrom, players the Red Wings rode into Stanley Cup glory two decades ago. Pronman continues, writing that it’s not a knock on the players but instead, shows just how hard it is to win consistently in the NHL. Additionally, he reminds Wings fans looking for a full teardown that there is only a 25% chance that tanking will garner a #1 pick–which may not even pan out. Regardless of the path they take, Detroit is surely in for bumpy times ahead.
- The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James quotes Wings coach Jeff Blashill calling the new Little Caesars Arena the “Ritz Carlton” of hockey arenas. After years of playing at the hastily constructed and outdated Joe Louis Arena, the Red Wings step into a state of the art facility that houses a practice rink and mammoth 25,000 square foot locker room.
- St. James also writes that P.A. Parenteau, who signed a PTO with the Red Wings has the best chance of getting a permanent spot by boosting the Red Wings powerplay. Last season, Detroit was dreadful with the man advantage and Parenteau has made a career of potting powerplay goals and it may be a perfect match for both the Wings and the nine-year veteran.
- The Red Wings are “standing firm” on their contract offer to forward Andreas Athanasiou, putting a two-year, $3.8M deal on the table. TSN’s Bob McKenzie cited progress between the camps and TSN reported that general manager Ken Holland expects to make a move in order to get cap compliant.
The Latest On Andreas Athanasiou
It’s not a lot, but there were some mild updates on the Andreas Athanasiou situation in Detroit.
Detroit News beat writer Ted Kulfan reports that while there is little more to report about Athanasiou’s status with the Red Wings, time is running out for both sides to figure out how to get something done.
Kulfan writes today that though he has overtures to play in the KHL, Athanasiou’s reluctance to sign indicates a glimmer of hope that he re-ups with Detroit. Kulfan indicates that not only are they still apart in negotiations, but the Wings are tight to the Cap, even before even re-signing Athanasiou. From Kulfan’s standpoint, the Wings are setting the bar for the slew of young free agents expected to see raises next season, namely Dylan Larkin, and Anthony Mantha.
Winging it in Motown ‘s John Curran takes another look, indicating that the recent silence from both sides could be a good sign for the Red Wings when it comes to the speedster returning. Curran, like Kulfan, shows both sides of the argument–writing that Athanasiou could easily be a 20-goal scorer for a Red Wings squad starving for consistent scorers. Conversely, he could be another in a long line of Red Wings players inked to lucrative deals who fail to live up to their new pay.
The Athletic’s Craig Custance notes that there is an “undercurrent of belief” in some NHL circles that Athanasiou is seeking a trade out of Detroit. What the Red Wings could fetch remains to be seen, but unless it netted something significant, it wouldn’t go over well with a fanbase that appears ready to storm Holland’s office with pitchforks and torches.
Regardless, Holland hasn’t helped his standing with his decision making lately, and many wonder if this will be his final year in Hockeytown. The Athanasiou saga hasn’t helped matters, either. On one hand, he believes the playoffs are the end goal for a team who wasn’t close last season. On the other, the roster has seen little change while Holland is struggling to sign one of the team’s better goal scorers. It certainly doesn’t help the perception that Holland’s over-spending for players during the 2016 offseason (and before that) has cost the Wings now and into the future.
As the season nears, it remains to be seen whether either side budges, or if Athanasiou calls Detroit’s bluff and heads over to Russia.
Evening Notes: Zetterberg, Shipachyov, Pickard
The Detroit Red Wings are getting ready to start another season shortly and while many aren’t expecting an impressive season from this team, the team still has eyes for the playoffs. MLive’s Ansar Khan answers some mailbag questions about the upcoming season and points out that with the combination of gritty veterans and young talent, the team may show some promise. The scribe writes to expect 36-year-old veteran Henrik Zetterberg to center Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist, who were their top line at the end of last year. The belief is that Tatar and Nyquist should benefit from Zetterberg’s presence to build their confidence early in the season.
He added that Dylan Larkin looks ready to take over as the team’s second-line center and be matched with Anthony Mantha, who scored 17 goals in his first full season. Justin Abdelkader might be a good fit to fill out that line. The third line would Frans Nielsen, Darren Helm and Andreas Athanasiou, if the restricted free agent signs with the team. Luke Glendening, Riley Sheahan and Tyler Bertuzzi are the likely candidates on the fourth line, assuming things don’t change much in training camp.
- The Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen writes that the team will be counting heavily on the success of Russian veteran Vadim Shipachyov this season. The 30-year-old forward was the third-leading scorer in the KHL last year with 26 goals and the team believes that if he can make the conversion to the NHL successfully, the Golden Knights might be better than many believe when it comes to offense. The team already has James Neal, Jon Marchessault, Reilly Smith, David Perron and the hope is Shipachyov will be that top-line player that opens up the offense.
- In the same story, Schoen adds that he wouldn’t be surprised if Golden Knights’ goaltender Calvin Pickard makes a name for himself, possibly even this season. While starting goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has received all the press and has become the face of the franchise, Pickard is just 25 years old and was a second-round pick in 2010. He was considered a top prospect before he struggled in a full-time role for the struggling Colorado Avalanche last year. His 2.98 GAA left a lot to be desired. However, Fleury is already 33 and while he was impressive in the playoffs for the Penguins, didn’t have a great year as the backup, putting up a 3.02 GAA for the year in 38 games. If Pickard can re-establish himself in Las Vegas, he could find himself getting big minutes.
Red Wing Notes: Athanasiou, Helm, Nielson, Svechnikov
A few days ago, PHR reported that Detroit Red Wings winger Andreas Athanasiou is receiving interest in signing a one-year deal with the KHL as he and the team struggle to sign a new deal. MLive’s Ansar Khan answers mailbag questions for readers and quickly points out that it is a legitimate possibility that he signs a deal in the KHL, although it’s still more likely he stays in Detroit and signs before training camp begins.
While the Red Wings have handed out some major contracts over the past few years to free agents, the team must take a hardline approach with Athanasiou because they have other young players they must lock up in the future, including Anthony Mantha and Dylan Larkin. Most hockey players don’t start making the big money until their third contract, so it’s unlikely the team will break the bank to bring Athanasiou back on a big deal.
Khan adds that if Athanasiou does leave for Russia, the team does have several options. While Athanasiou was the team’s second-leading goal scorer with 18 goals in just 64 games, he’s still a developing player, having scored just nine goals in 37 games during his rookie campaign. Many Red Wings players had down years last year and the Red Wings have high hopes to see some of their veterans bounce back this year. Much of Athanasiou’s production could be filled by increased production by Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader, Riley Sheahan and Larkin. The other possibility is that the team inks Thomas Vanek in such a situation, assuming he’d agree to ink a one-year deal and the team can move out some salary to make that deal work.
- In the same mailbag, Khan writes that there is little chance the Red Wings could take advantage of the Pittsburgh Penguins need at center and move out the contracts of either Darren Helm or Frans Nielsen. He writes that both contracts remain too long and too expensive to trade off to a desperate team. Helm’s deal still has four years at $3.85MM per year, while Nielsen’s is even worse with five years remaining at $5.25MM per year.
- Khan adds that 2015 first-round pick Evgeny Svechnikov would not be a likely candidate to make the team this year as he is still not ready for a full-time NHL role yet. He writes that he believes he needs another full year at the AHL level with the Grand Rapids Griffins. He scored 20 goals and 31 assists for the Griffins last year in 74 games.
The Oldest NHL Rosters, Looking Forward
The average age of a team is a stat which gets thrown around rarely, but it can be quite telling when it comes to salary cap planning and drafting. The youngest teams tend to have exceptionally talented stars under the age of 25 (Oilers, Blue Jackets), or find themselves out of contention entirely, banking on the rebuilding process (Arizona, Colorado). At the opposite end of the spectrum are the most aged teams, some past their windows of contention and almost all struggling with an identity crisis. However, there are outliers in the group – for instance, Florida is the 5th oldest team at present, while most of the top talent is still in their primes. Still, the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Los Angeles Kings all have Father Time looming ominously above their franchises. All of these teams could re-structure themselves and find themselves back on the right track, if their drafting improves and their general managers cut loose harmful contracts while able.
Ottawa Senators
The most recently successful of the three, Ottawa fans likely aren’t expecting another Conference Finals finish. The team lost Marc Methot in expansion, and their largest move in the off-season was the signing of 35-year-old Johnny Oduya. With an average age of 29.73, they should be see the effects of age start to impact their performance. Although 36 year-old Craig Anderson was pivotal in their 2016-17 success, he has one year remaining on his contract and Marcus Hogberg will be looking for an opening in the mid-term future. If Anderson’s workload drastically increases, he could find difficulty in maintaining his above average numbers, and that could spell trouble. By re-signing the steady Mike Condon, however, they at least alleviated that concern.
The team had a chance to unload 30 year-old Bobby Ryan to Vegas, but opted against it. They’ll now have his contract on the books until he’s 35. 36 year-old Alex Burrows has two years remaining on his deal, while 32 year-old Clarke MacArthur has three. 32 year-old defenseman Dion Phaneuf has hard mileage on him with his physical style of play, and has four years remaining on his deal. Outside of Colin White, Cody Ceci, and Fredrik Claesson, everyone on the roster is over the age of 25. If Logan Brown pans out, he should go a long way in rejuvenating the forward corps. Filip Chlapik of Charlottestown is certainly no slouch either. On the defensive side, Thomas Chabot has the talent to make a significant impact, but there’s a logjam of older veterans in his way. While Ottawa obviously doesn’t need to entertain a full rebuild, they need to allow their prospects a chance to make the NHL squad and embrace a youth infusion. Signing the Oduyas of the world only prolongs that necessity.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings have paid out far too much money to mediocre talent, and it has been death by a thousand papercuts for Ken Holland. The team now finds itself $3.9 MM over the salary ceiling, desperately trying to find a way to shed salary and slip under before year’s start while still signing RFA Andreas Athanasiou. This is another franchise who opted to go with an established veteran on the backend this summer, Trevor Daley (33), when the team was in desperate need of younger legs. The team finds itself second oldest league-wide, with an average age of 29.27. Part of the reason Detroit consistently finds itself among the oldest franchises in the league is that the organization places extreme value on fully maturing its prospects, usually in the AHL, before regularly dressing for the big club. This is a fine ideal, but it usually results in more expensive contracts for RFAs, as the totals posted by well-groomed players are usually superior to those of untested rookies. In the Salary Cap era, having productive players on ELCs is a huge contributor to success.
Henrik Zetterberg, 36, has four more years on his deal, and logs exceptionally taxing minutes. Johan Franzen, 37, is already burning cap space, as his LTIR will be on the books for another 3 seasons. Once the year begins, its not a great issue, but it complicates matters in the off-season. Frans Nielsen, 33, is no spring chicken himself and also takes on greater responsibility in Detroit than he ever did in Long Island. With 5 years remaining on his deal, it begs the question of whether he will be performing at a Selke-caliber when he’s turning 38. Only Xavier Ouellet and Danny DeKeyser are under the age of 30 on defense, with Daley, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall, and Jonathan Ericsson all having no-trade clauses. The Wings have some enticing prospects on the horizon, but with so many immovable and long-term contracts, it will be difficult for them to find places on the team in the short-term. Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha are both ready for larger roles, but true talents like Michael Rasmussen should get the opportunity to shine in a top-six role. Detroit is in no position to seriously compete, and perhaps it’s time to embrace the necessary partial rebuild. Trading some of the dead-weight contracts would be a solid start.
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles is only a few years removed from a Stanley Cup win, but it seems like ages past. They have the third-oldest roster on paper at the moment, with an average age of 29.14. The Kings don’t actually have any players over the age of 35, so in that sense, they’ve avoided serious headaches. Marian Gaborik (35) and Mike Cammalleri (35) are the team’s greybeards, and while both had down seasons, they could each realistically rebound under new leadership. The problem for Los Angeles is that they don’t have any bonafide prospects pushing the issue. Adrian Kempe is the surest best to make the roster this year, as he could slot into a bottom-six role quite easily. Defenseman Paul LaDue should see his fair share of work this year as well. Beyond that, they’ll have no players playing on entry-level contracts. It’s simply unsustainable to draft in such a poor manner for so long, and Los Angeles is seeing the hurt now. If Jonny Brodzinski, a former 5th-rounder, could make the leap permanent, it would be a great help.
The Kings are over $6.8 MM under the cap ceiling, so unlike the Wings and Senators the franchise isn’t overly concerned about money. Dustin Brown‘s contract is particularly egregious, but there’s not much to be done about it. Los Angeles can still turn things around, but they’ll need more recent draft picks to find a way to contribute going forward. Gabriel Viladri will head back to Windsor for the season, but he could inject a serious shot of youthful speed and creativity into the roster in 2018-19. There’s just not a ton of excitement when it comes to Kings prospects, and considering that Vilardi was the first first-round pick since 2014 (Kempe), it’s easy to see why. Still, Tanner Pearson (25) and Tyler Toffoli (25) should have more prominent offensive roles this year, while some older defensemen were abandoned, so management seems to be righting the ship.