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Stretch Run Storylines: Buffalo Sabres

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Buffalo.

The Buffalo Sabres had high hopes the team would make that next step this offseason and the team did start strong once again with Jack Eichel leading the way. However, once again, the Sabres struggled midway through the season and saw them drop in the standings and out of the playoff race. The team in some ways is quite young, but with no playoff appearances since the 2010-11 season, there is quite a bit of pressure on the team to figure things out and get back to winning.

Lack Of Long-Term Deals

One of the most interesting things about the Sabres is that their future is quite open as Buffalo has locked up just five players past the 2020-21 season and will have to start looking at locking up some of their talent long-term at some point down the road. The biggest problem for Sabres’ management is that they have made some poor decisions over the years with long-term deals handed out to Kyle Okposo and more recently Jeff Skinner, both of which currently look like questionable deals.

The team should gain quite a bit of cap space this summer with a number of players about to hit unrestricted free agency, including Wayne Simmonds, Michael Frolik, Jimmy Vesey, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Matt Hunwick and Vladimir Sobotka. While the franchise may bring one or two of them back, it does free up some cap room to add some talent. The team also have a number of restricted free agents, who could be eligible for long-term deals, including Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Dominik Kahun, Brandon Montour and Linus Ullmark. The question is whether Buffalo is ready to lock some of these players up.

Goaltending Questions

The Sabres thought they solved their goaltending issues a couple of years ago when they signed Carter Hutton to a three-year deal. However, that experiment hasn’t gone well either. The goaltender has struggled in a starting role, struggling even more this year than in his first season. This year in 31 appearances, the 34-year-old has a 3.18 GAA and .898 save percentage and finally the Sabres decided to split the starts between Carter and Ullmark.

Ullmark is a lock to return, but the question is what to do with Carter. Do they want to give him one more chance or perhaps buy out his final year. Is Ullmark, who did show significant improvement this season (2.69 GAA, .915 save percentage in 34 appearances), ready for a starting role? Should the team go out and sign one of the many big-named unrestricted free agent goalies this offseason? Lots of questions, but the team must make a decision down the road to fix those woes.

Development Of Youth

The Buffalo Sabres now need their youth to take that next step in their development. The team has finally seen Eichel take that next step into both a leader on and off the ice, which is something the Sabres needed desperately. Olofsson proved extremely valuable in his rookie campaign with 20 goals and 42 points in 54 games, but dealt with some injuries that prevented him from making an ever bigger impact on the ice.

However, what the Sabres need is for more of their young talent to take that next step. Casey Mittelstadt struggled even more in his second season with just four goals and nine points in 313 games and was sent to Rochester to work on his confidence. Promising youngster Tage Thompson also spent the season with the Americans of the AHL to work on his game and was injured quite a bit. Defensive acquisition Henri Jokiharju struggled in his first season as well.

What the team needs is for some of their young players to take that next step like Eichel. Buffalo needs more from Rasmus Dahlin, the first-overall pick in 2018, and they must successfully develop prospect Dylan Cozens if/when he makes the team next year. Others need to step up as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Transactions: 02/10/20

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We’re now just two weeks from the 2020 NHL trade deadline and the rental market is still not exactly clear. Even after the Toronto Maple Leafs squeezed a backup goaltender out of Los Angeles, we’re still waiting on teams to really start buying and selling. As they prepare for the six games on the schedule, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves right here.

  • The Buffalo Sabres have returned Andrew Hammond to the minor leagues, though it is not clear whether he’ll be back for tomorrow’s game against the Detroit Red Wings. Carter Hutton was away from the team for a family reason during yesterday’s loss to the Anaheim Ducks.
  • Mathieu Joseph has been recalled by the Tampa Bay Lightning, returning to the NHL after more than a month away from the team. The 23-year old winger has seven points in 34 games with the Lightning this season.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have recalled Pontus Aberg to help them out at practice, given some absences up front. Though William Nylander is back, John Tavares and Justin Holl have taken his place on the shelf with an illness. Zach Hyman is also missing the practice as a maintenance day, while Kyle Clifford is away attending a funeral.
  • Alex Lyon has been returned to the AHL by the Philadelphia Flyers, indicating that Carter Hart is ready to return for them. The Flyers take on the Florida Panthers tonight in the first half of an important back-to-back.
  • Martin Fehervary has been recalled and will play for the Washington Capitals again tonight, after being involved in a paper transaction yesterday. Fehervary is getting a look in order for the Capitals to know what kind of depth they have on defense as the deadline nears.
  • Calle Rosen has been returned to the Colorado Eagles, as the Avalanche return home after a five-game road trip. Rosen has played eight games for the Avalanche this season after being acquired in the Tyson Barrie–Nazem Kadri deal last summer.

Buffalo Sabres Goaltending Down To AHL Tandem

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The Buffalo Sabres already had some issues in the net with their tandem of Linus Ullmark and Carter Hutton this season. While neither has been too disappointing, neither has been a difference maker either. However, just in the last couple of weeks, that tandem has disappeared, at least temporarily. The team lost Ullmark to a leg injury and was placed on injured reserve on Jan. 29th and now Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski reports that Carter Hutton will be out for family reasons. No word on the timetable for his return.

The team already had called AHL’s Jonas Johansson when Ullmark went down and now the team has recalled Andrew Hammond to replace Hutton. That leaves the Rochester Americans’ tandem in charge of the NHL team.

Johansson is expected to start Sunday against the Anaheim Ducks. The 24-year-old has made two relief appearances for Buffalo this season, posting a 2.58 GAA and a .886 save percentage. However, he has been much more successful in Rochester. He was named to the AHL All-Star Game with a 2.19 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 20 appearances.

Hammond, no stranger to the NHL with 56 NHL appearances including several key winning streaks with both Ottawa and Colorado over the years, has not made an appearance since filling in for the Avalanche during the 2017-18 playoffs. He has a 2.57 GAA and a .905 save percentage with the Americans in 27 appearances this season.

Both will be expected to hold down the pipes for Buffalo until either Ullmark or Hutton are able to return.

Eastern Notes: Mantha, Johansson, Dobson, Paul

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The Detroit Red Wings lost Filip Zadina for two to three weeks, but the team did get a boost of good news as winger Anthony Mantha practiced with the first time since he suffered a mid-body injury on Dec. 21 against Toronto when Jake Muzzin slammed him to the ice, according to NHL.com’s Dana Wakiji. The 25-year-old was wearing an orange no-contact jersey, but it’s step in the right direction for the winger who has appeared in just 29 games this season.

“I’m feeling better,” Mantha said. “Obviously today was the first practice with the team, so it feels good mentally. Physically, I’ve been getting better over the last couple of weeks. I can’t complain.”

Mantha was playing well, posting 12 goals and 24 points in those 29 games and was looking to potentially post career highs, but now will look to help the Red Wings offense, which has struggled for most of the year.

  • In his most recent mailbag, the Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski writes that the Buffalo Sabres might be interested in taking a long look at 24-year-old prospect goaltender Jonas Johansson, who will be a restricted free agent next year and could be a candidate to replace Carter Hutton next season if he fares well, assuming they can move Hutton. Johansson has played well with the Rochester Americans this year, posting a 2.19 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 20 games. The team might also want to avoid keeping Johansson in Rochester next year, which could block the path when top goalie prospect Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen becomes a full-time AHL goalie.
  • When the New York Islanders lost defenseman Adam Pelech for the season due to an Achilles’ tendon injury, many thought that rookie Noah Dobson would be the recipient of the extra minutes that the team lost. Instead, Newsday’s Andrew Gross writes that head coach Barry Trotz has relied on his five veteran blueliners and continues to hold Dobson out of key moments in games. Dobson doesn’t play in the third period at all in tight games. The five veterans are forced to take extra shifts in order to replace Dobson, who refers to the situation as five and a half defenders, but doesn’t feel the extra ice time is having a negative effect on the other five defenders.
  • Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that Ottawa Senators forward Nick Paul is skating again and should be able to return at some point this week. The 24-year-old suffered a high ankle sprain on Jan. 7 against the Capitals and deemed to be out for four weeks, which is right on schedule. Paul has six goals and 13 points in 38 games this season.

 

Snapshots: Three Stars, Spooner, Okulov

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The NHL has released their Three Stars for last week, and Boston Bruins fans will be happy to know that David Pastrnak’s performance was not overlooked. The young forward took home the top spot after scoring seven goals in three games including a four-goal performance against the Anaheim Ducks. Pastrnak is now tied with James Neal for the league lead in goals with nine.

Not to be forgotten however are John Carlson and Carter Hutton that took home second and third respectively. Carlson continues to lead the NHL in scoring with 18 points (including eight last week) and has been an absolute force for the Washington Capitals early. Hutton meanwhile stopped all 72 shots he faces last week including 47 in a single game to shutout the Los Angeles Kings. If the Buffalo Sabres netminder can continue to provide this kind of performance, the team may well have a chance to fight for that divisional playoff spot that they’ve coveted for so long.

  • Ryan Spooner has changed teams again, but that doesn’t mean he’s coming back to North America. The former NHL forward will join Dynamo Minsk in the KHL for the rest of the season, leaving HC Lugano of the Swiss NLA. Spooner is still just 27, but spent time with three different NHL organizations last season and can’t seem to find a home anywhere.
  • Following up on the recent report linking the Toronto Maple Leafs to Konstantin Okulov, Igor Eronko of Sport-Express confirms that the Russian forward has indeed spoken to Mike Babcock already. Okulov has 13 points through his first 17 games in the KHL this season and is a potential target for teams looking to add international talent next summer.

Arbitration Breakdown: Linus Ullmark

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

The Buffalo Sabres are 50/50 on settling arbitration cases so far this summer, coming to an agreement with Remi Elie prior to a hearing, but going through the process with Evan Rodrigues. They remarkably have two cases left with just two hearing dates remaining. The first, scheduled for Friday, is with 26-year-old homegrown goaltender Linus Ullmark. Ullmark’s performance as well as his role with the team has been up and down over his career and there is no consensus as to whether he is still growing into a future starter or has settled into a backup position. That much was evident when the two sides exchanged filing numbers, as the two figures were drastically far apart. The Sabres prevailed against Rodrigues in a case that seemingly favored the player; will they do so again? Here is a closer look at the case:

The Case of Linus Ullmark

Career Statistics: 63 games played, 24 wins, .910 save percentage, 2.87 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 37 games played, 15 wins, .905 save percentage, 3.11 goals against average

Filing Numbers: Ullmark – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $800K (midpoint: $1.725MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Starting-Caliber Goaltender: strong 2017-18 numbers in NHL and AHL; comparable numbers to starter Carter Hutton in platform season; higher quality start percentage than Hutton in platform season
  • Lacking Opportunity: strong numbers in 20 appearances as a rookie in 2015-16, made only six appearances over the next two seasons; Sabres were ninth-worst in shots allowed in platform season, lacked opportunity to play behind competent defense

Team Side

Themes:

  • Backup-Caliber Goaltender: inferior statistics to starter Hutton in platform season; SV% and GAA ranked in bottom ten among 48 goalies with at least 30 appearances in platform season; unable to earn more appearances in prior seasons
  • Unreliable Goaltender: cannot handle regular NHL workload, numbers in five appearances in 2017-18 far superior to numbers as primary backup in 2018-19; allowed four or more goals in 15 appearances, including seven of final twelve appearances and five times in back-to-back appearances

Potential Comparable Player:

David Rittich (2019)
Career Statistics: 67 games played, 35 wins, .909 save percentage, 2.70 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 45 games played, 27 wins, .911 save percentage, 2.61 goals against average
Salary: $2.75MM

  • Player’s argument: Similar career numbers; similar age, size, developmental path
  • Team’s counter: Rittich had substantially better numbers in the platform season; has shown steady improvement at NHL level, eventually winning starting role; Rittich has better quality start percentage, more reliable and consistent performances

Prediction

There are not many great cases for arbitration-eligible goaltenders with Ullmark’s level of NHL experience. That serves to benefit him though, as one such player is a case settled last week in Rittich. Although Rittich’s new $2.75MM salary is more than Ullmark’s side filed for, they can acknowledge Rittich’s superior play in the platform season and still argue that the career numbers are similar enough to warrant their  $2.65MM ask. As for the Sabres, they can easily argue that Rittich is on a much better trajectory than Ullmark, but the player side may admit to that themselves. They’ll have to really hammer home the contrast between the two goalies if they are to use Rittich’s case to their advantage. Otherwise, Buffalo will have to dig deep to find a different case that both fits the criteria for a case that can be used in a hearing and also makes sense as a comparable player, so they can add additional points to their argument. It’s going to be tough, though. The Sabres pulled out a surprise against Rodrigues, but don’t expect them to do it again. Anticipate a potential award to land somewhere in the $2.1-2.3MM range.

Sabres Sign Andrew Hammond

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“The Hamburglar” is making his next appearance in Buffalo. The Sabres have announced a one-year contract with Andrew Hammond worth the NHL minimum $700K. The veteran goalie should slot in as the team’s No. 3 keeper next season.

Buffalo had hoped that this was the year that stud goaltending prospect Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen might take over full-time duties in Rochester, but the prospect underwent hip surgery in April which could miss a large chunk of the season and therefore would be better off as a backup option once he returns. Hence the addition of Hammond. The 31-year-old known for impressive streaks, including an incredible run while he was with the Ottawa Senators in the 2014-15 season in which he posted a 1.79 GAA and a .941 save percentage in 24 games for them. Unfortunately for Hammond, he also had just as many streaks where he was unsuccessful, making for a very streaky goaltender.

He has played just 56 total NHL games over his career and spent last season as the third-string option for the Minnesota Wild, but was not able to beat out backup Alex Stalock and served as the starting netminder with the Iowa Wild in the AHL. He played 33 games for Iowa, putting up a 2.81 GAA and a .910 save percentage, but never played a game for Minnesota.

While Buffalo’s goaltending situation looks solid in Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark, neither goalie posted great numbers and if one of them falters, the team might feel comfortable calling up Hammond.

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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Free agency is now just a few days away and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. The Buffalo Sabres, now that they have inked Jeff Skinner to an eight-year, $72MM deal earlier this month, don’t have as much to worry about as the team has neither many important restricted or unrestricted free agents they need to worry about.

Key Restricted Free Agent: G Linus Ullmark – The Sabres may not have gotten the season they were hoping for from free agent goaltender Carter Hutton, but they also had high hopes for Ullmark to take the next step and establish himself as a solid backup to the veteran. However, whether that will be the case is another question. While Ullmark looked early on in the season like the answer as the team’s backup, his play started to slip as the year wore on and he struggled especially late in the season, eventually finishing with a 3.11 GAA and a .905 save percentage. However, with no other young goalie particularly close to being ready to challenge him, it’s likely the Sabres will give Ullmark another year to develop his body for the long-haul for the season.

F Zemgus Girgensons – While hardly an impact player, the Sabres have been using the 25-year-old as a bottom-line depth option for six years already as he provides the team with some size and grit that the team needs at the bottom of their line-up. While he hasn’t broken the 10-goal mark since the 2014-15 season (he scored five last year), he did finish with 144 hits last season, his highest numbers since his rookie season. The question is whether the team sees him as a long-term option as he is one year away from becoming a unrestricted free-agent.

F Evan Rodrigues – The team has like what it has seen from Rodrigues, who signed with Buffalo after four years at Boston University and has since worked his way through the AHL and finally saw a full season in Buffalo this year. While his numbers were quite pedestrian as he finished the year with nine goals and 29 points, he has seen increased playing time and the team hopes he can still provide some middle-six depth for the team, although he should receive a slight raise from the $650K that he made last season.

Other RFAs: F Remi Elie, F Johan Larsson, D Jake McCabe, F C.J. Smith

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Jason Pominville – He has played 11 seasons for Buffalo over the course of his career and despite hitting 36 years of age, the team may consider bringing back the veteran as an inexpensive depth option. After all, he posted 16 goals last season, while playing a career-low 12:28 last season. While he certainly wasn’t worth the $5.6MM he was making last season, he would be worth a low-cost deal, who could provide the team’s youth with a veteran presence.

Other UFAs: F Eric Cornel, F Kyle Criscuolo, D Jack Dougherty, F Taylor Leier, F Sean Malone, D Brycen Martin, F Matt Moulson, F Daniel O’Regan; D Matt Tennyson, G Scott Wedgewood, G Adam Wilcox

Projected Cap Space: The Sabres currently sit a little more than $15MM under the cap ceiling, according to CapFriendly, and should have some cap room to try to find some offense to help out their struggling second line. With the recent addition of defenseman Colin Miller from Vegas, the team should be in good shape with their defense, but the team’s biggest problem was putting the puck in the net, which the team hopes that it can improve on with the right roster moves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Islanders, Panthers, Sabres Sign Minor League Goaltenders

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Several teams have fortified their depth in net before the NHL Trade Deadline, which also acts as a deadline for players to sign and be postseason-eligible. The New York Islanders have signed Jeremy Smith, the Florida Panthers have signed Chris Driedger, and the Buffalo Sabres have signed Adam Wilcox. All three deals are identical: two-way contracts worth the minimum $650K at the NHL level for the remainder of the 2018-19 season. The trio of keepers will need to clear waivers today.

Smith’s signing is the most significant, as the Islanders have all but clinched a playoff spot this season. The 29-year-old journeyman played in ten games for the Colorado Avalanche just two years ago and previous stops also include the Nashville Predators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Boston Bruins, and Carolina Hurricanes. Smith has had several strong seasons in the AHL, including a two-year stretch with the Providence Bruins a few years back in which he was among the best keepers in the league. While the Islanders have hit the jackpot this season with outstanding performances from Thomas Greiss and Robin Lehner, there was a significant lack of depth in net with third-string goalie Christopher Gibson struggling immensely this season in the AHL and having a poor track record in the NHL. With Smith signed, he is likely the new third-string should anything happen to Greiss or Lehner.

Driedger, 24, spent several years with the Ottawa Senators before signing an AHL contract with the Springfield Thunderbirds this off-season. Before the Panthers traded Michael Hutchinson away, Driedger was relegated to the ECHL with Hutchinson and Samuel Montembeault taking the AHL starts. However, he has gotten into 16 games with the Thunderbirds since and has outperformed Montembeault. The promising prospect likely remains Florida’s next man up in net, but given the injury histories of Roberto Luongo and James Reimer, it is certainly possible that both Montembeault and Driedger could see NHL action this season.

The Sabres’ signing of Wilcox is likely in response to a recent rash of injuries in net. Both Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark have had injury scares lately, while young Jonas Johansson recently underwent season-ending surgery. While their postseason hopes are dwindling, it still remains a possibility for Buffalo and adding Wilcox gives them depth behind Hutton, Ullmark, and Scott Wedgewood. Wilcox, 26, is no stranger to being an emergency option; the Sabres were forced to call him up last season – again as the fourth-string option – and were pleased by a shutout performance in his lone appearance.

Injury Notes: Capitals, Sabres, Blues

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Washington Capitals forward Lars Eller appears to have avoided serious injury on Friday night. Eller left the Caps’ contest with the Calgary Flames early in the second period and did not return, due to an undisclosed lower-body injury. He then did not practice with the team this morning. However, the Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan relays news from head coach Todd Reirden that Eller will simply be a “game-time decision” on Sunday when Washington hosts the Boston Bruins. It seems that he is only nursing a minor injury and should be ready to return to action sooner rather than later. The dependable third-line center is an underappreciated part of the Capitals’ talented team and would have been an unfortunate injury absence.

Khurshudyan also states that defenseman Christian Djoos is nearing his return to the lineup. Djoos has been out since mid-December after undergoing thigh surgery and has missed 23 games this season. However, he has been cleared for contact and has resumed practicing with the team. Reirden did not rule out the possibility that Djoos could head to Hershey on a conditioning stint with the AHL’s Bears, but one way or another should see game action in the near future.

  • The Buffalo Sabres suffered a brutal 7-3 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks yesterday and are no doubt dealing with some injured morale today. However, two of the players that did not suit up on Friday are in fact dealing with actual injuries. The team announced that forward Johan Larsson and defenseman Matt Hunwick are both considered day-to-day with injuries. Larsson, who likely got hurt when he last played on Wednesday, is out with an upper-body injury, while Hunwick, who played in just his third game of the season on Tuesday, probably suffered his lower-body injury during that contest. On top of that, the team also announced that starting goaltender Carter Hutton missed practice today due to illness. The status of all three players is in doubt for the Sabres’ next game against the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday.
  • The St. Louis Blues are hoping to stay in the playoff race in the Western Conference and the contributions of rookie Robert Thomas could be key in doing so. The Blues have announced that Thomas has been activated from the injured reserve and will be back in the lineup tonight when the team visits the Columbus Blue Jackets. Thomas has missed the past seven games with a shoulder injury. A 2017 first-round pick, Thomas has just 14 points in 37 games thus far, but has noticeably improved along the way in his first pro season. That trajectory could have him as an impact player for St. Louis down the stretch.

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