David Pastrnak

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

August 31, 2018 at 8:31 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Projected Cap Hit: $76,540,667 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry Level Contracts

D Charlie McAvoy (one year, $917K)
D Brandon Carlo (one year, $789K)
F Jake DeBrusk (two years, $863K)
F Danton Heinen (one year, $873K)
F Ryan Donato (one year, $900K)
F Anders Bjork (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses:

McAvoy: $500K
DeBrusk: $425K
Heinen: $213K
Donato: $850K

Total: $1.99MM

Under $5.5MM in salary and under $2MM in potential bonuses for that group of players? It would be hard to find any team in the league who wouldn’t be excited about that scenario. Carlo has played a top four role for the Bruins for two seasons already and McAvoy asserted himself not only as the top defenseman on the team as a rookie last year, but one of the best defenders in the league; they’re both just beginning to show what they can be. The other four forwards will likely make up the bulk of the top nine in Boston this season. Heinen and DeBrusk finished fourth and sixth respectively among Bruins forwards in scoring last year, each with 40+ points, and noticeably improved as the season wore on. Bjork began the year in the top six and scored at a pace that would have put him at 30+ points on the year, if not for a roster crunch and later on an injury that kept him out of the lineup for much of the year. The latest addition is Donato, who joined the team down the stretch after leading both the NCAA and Winter Olympics in goals per game. If the Bruins’ top prospect finds chemistry with a scoring line and earns substantial ice time, he could be a legitimate Calder Trophy threat.

Of course, the caveat to all of this is that the Bruins can only enjoy most of these bargain deals for one more year. All but DeBrusk and Bjork will be due extensions by this time next year. McAvoy is in line for an expensive, long-term contract that could easily surpass the six-year, $29.7MM contract just recently signed by the Calgary Flames’ Noah Hanifin. Carlo will be due a much more modest raise, but a raise nonetheless. The real intrigue lies with Heinen and Donato. If Heinen is again the best non-first line forward on the Bruins this season, he will have cemented himself as a crucial piece of the core and will be able to command a hefty bump in salary. A regression and being overshadowed by other young forward could keep his next cap hit at a more comfortable level. The same goes for Donato, who could meet his lofty expectations as a rookie and significantly raise his asking price or could fail to stand out against Boston’s other young forwards and sign a more modest second contract. Perhaps even the Bruins don’t know which outcome they would prefer: their impending RFA’s playing incredibly well and boosting their value or instead playing secondary roles and staying reasonably priced? Either way, the team will at least be glad to have DeBrusk and other incoming prospects at ELC cap hits in 2019-20.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry Level

D Zdeno Chara ($5MM, UFA)
D Adam McQuaid ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Noel Acciari ($725K, UFA)

Not much is going to change on the Bruins roster between 2018-19 and 2019-20 if unrestricted free agency is any indicator. Given how few current players are impending unrestricted free agents and the number and value of the likely RFA contracts that they will need to hand out, it will probably be a quiet summer in Boston next year.

Of this group, the one departure that seems certain is McQuaid. As it stands now, McQuaid might not only be a bench player for the Bruins this season but could even be considered the team’s #8 defenseman and very well could land on the trade block or even waivers over the course of the campaign. The loyal veteran is one of the remaining holdovers from the team’s 2011 Stanley Cup title and has only ever played hard-nosed, competent hockey in Boston. However, frequent injuries paired with the development of Kevan Miller into a better version of McQuaid has all but made the original superfluous. Now, Boston may not carry eight defenseman all season long and if someone other than McQuaid is traded, that would open up some more opportunity for the physical veteran. However, it still seems that – given the players signed on the blue line as it is and the crop of prospects in Providence (AHL) pushing for play time – that McQuaid’s days in Boston are numbered one way or another.

Counting the days until Chara retires may be a pointless effort, though. The 41-year-old continues to defy nature in every regard. Chara led all Boston skaters in ice time with 23 minutes per night and has been the team’s average ice-time leader for a whopping twelve years straight. While his offense remains in decline, his defensive game made a major comeback last season and the league’s oldest defenseman even garnered Norris Trophy votes. In all likelihood, the Bruins will look to reduce Chara’s role this year in an effort to make him even more effective in limited minutes. If that proves successful, don’t be surprised to see Boston give Chara incentive-laden one-year contracts until he finally decides to hand up his skates. At this rate, it could be another year or two after this current contract expires.

Some may discount what spark plug Acciari brings to the Bruins and consider his impending free agency to not be much of a factor. Yet, Acciari is considered by many to be one of the more underrated defensive forwards in the league. A versatile player and punishing checker, Acciari is an ideal fourth-liner who frustrates the opposition without landing in penalty trouble or ending up on the wrong side of turnovers. Acciari logged 152 hits last season versus just four minor penalty minutes and recorded 20 takeaways to just nine giveaways. Few players in the league are so efficient with their defensive play. Acciari is a local product who fits the style and culture of the Bruins well and could certainly wind up with a multi-year extension. With that said, the Bruins’ addition of Chris Wagner this summer adds a lot of the same ability that Acciari brings to the table. If cap space or roster space becomes an issue, Acciari is not guaranteed a new contract.

Two Years Remaining

D Torey Krug ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Kevan Miller ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Matt Grzelcyk ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Chris Wagner ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Joakim Nordstrom ($1MM, UFA)
G Jaroslav Halak ($2.75MM, UFA)

Although their contracts expire in just two years, it is far too early to tell what the future holds for any of these players. The easy prediction would be that in two years time, the Bruins will have homegrown products ready to replace the unrestricted free agents, with Grzelcyk sliding into the offensive defenseman role that Krug has dominated for so long. However, things rarely work out that simply. On the blue line, the Bruins do have a lot in the pipeline with three recent first- or second-round picks at the AHL level and another overseas, not to mention Grzelcyk currently slated for extra man duty. The hope would be that all or some combination of Chara, McQuaid, Krug, and Miller will be allowed to depart over the next two seasons, with McAvoy, Carlo, Grzelcyk, and John Moore leading a new group of rearguards, but only time will tell. In the meantime, roster restrictions could mean that one of McQuaid, Krug, or Miller are traded away in the coming season.

Up front, Wagner and Nordstrom have yet to take the ice for the Bruins. While Wagner is a bona fide bottom-six commodity who seems like a natural fit, Nordstrom is less so. Unless he surprises, the veteran forward seems more likely to land on waivers over the next two years than he is to earn an extension. Finally, there is Halak, who was brought in to lessen the burden on starter Tuukka Rask, who has proven to be a far superior player with more rest. Boston needs to bridge the gap to a class of young goaltenders with promise, but still in need of much development. Halak, 33, is out to prove that he can still be a great goaltender behind a competent defense. If he succeeds, he’ll likely be looking for a chance to start when he next hits free agency. If he fails, the Bruins won’t retain a washed-up, aging keeper anyway. Halak is perhaps the only player of this group that is for sure only in Boston for two years maximum.

Three Years Remaining

F David Krejci ($7.25MM, UFA)
F David Backes ($6MM, UFA)
F Sean Kuraly ($1.275MM, RFA)
G Tuukka Rask ($7MM, UFA)

Outside of Kuraly, the collection of players in this category are those most often maligned by critics both in and outside of Boston. Krejci, the highest paid player on the Bruins, has begun the aging process far sooner than many expected. The 32-year-old has seen a drop off in production every year since 2013-14 and is visibly slower and less dynamic on the ice. While he played well with DeBrusk and for a time Rick Nash last season, the Bruins still have yet to find the right line mates to spark his game the way that long-departed players like Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton, and Loui Eriksson did. Backes has certainly not been the answer, and while the 34-year-old has struggled with health issues in his two years since coming to Boston, it is hard to imagine him even at his healthiest surpassing the 30-40 point capability he has shown of late. At $6MM for three more years, that could be a hard pill to swallow. Krejci and Backes are still capable of turning their current trends around and making the most of the next three years. Regardless, they won’t be back once their current contracts expire.

Rask could be a different story. For all of the criticism that Rask gets for inconsistent play and poor postseason performance, the 31-year-old has the second-best career save percentage in NHL history behind only Dominik Hasek and is the active leader in both save percentage and goals against average. On top of that, his career playoff numbers are actually even better – .924 and 2.25 compared to .922 and 2.26. Like any goalie, Rask is simply the easiest person to blame when things don’t go well for the Bruins. The other source of ire is that, at $7MM, the aging Rask is paid like a top five goalie when of late he has performed more like a top 10 or 12 goalie. Any rumor of a Rask trade right now is nonsense and likely will remain so through this contract. At that point, the Bruins will have to address the development of their prospect goalies and the options on the market, but could very well return to a then-34-year-old Rask for another contract, this one shorter and more affordable.

The odd man out in this group, fortunately, is Kuraly. Some were surprised when the Bruins handed a three-year term to a fourth-line player, but Boston has a recent history of finding success with consistent energy line groupings. They have clearly pegged the capable Kuraly as a mainstay in the bottom-six moving forward. At a very reasonable cap hit, there is nothing to be concerned about with this contract.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D John Moore ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
F Patrice Bergeron ($6.875MM through 2021-22)
F David Pastrnak ($6.67MM through 2022-23)
F Brad Marchand ($6.125MM through 2024-25)

Just like the group of entry-level players under contract in Boston, there aren’t many general managers around the league who would turn down this group of long-term contracts. The entirety of the most dangerous line in the NHL are all signed for four or more years at under $7MM apiece. Bergeron, the best two-way forward of his generation and arguably of all-time, centering two wingers that finished with 80+ points last year in Marchand and Pastrnak. Marchand, who has seven years left on his contract, has blossomed into one of the most potent scorers in the league while still maintaining a style that frustrates oppositions and causes turnovers. Pastrnak, 22, will be 27 when his contract expires and has only just begun to show his true potential. When that time arrives, the Bruins will likely be happy to throw another eight years at him. To a lesser extent, the same goes for Bergeron, who in all odds will get the Chara treatment of never-ending extensions so long as he remains effective. This trio looks ready to dominate for a long time.

As for Moore, very rarely is a long-term deal signed that carries so little risk. At $2.75MM, Moore chose term and security over market value. The 27-year-old defenseman has dealt with injuries and inconsistency in his career, but has also had stretches of top pair-caliber play. Most of the time, he is simply a sound presence on the back end who does everything well, even if he doesn’t do anything great. At his best, Moore could be a long-term partner for McAvoy who provides solid defense that allows the No. 1 defenseman to take more offensive risks. At his worst, Moore can be a steady stay-at-home mainstay on the third pair while the Bruins bring up other young, inexperienced defenseman. Either way, as the salary cap increases, Moore’s salary will become more and more of a bargain, especially if his health issues are in the past. The Moore contract was surprise, but not a mistake by Don Sweeney and company.

Buyouts

D Dennis Seidenberg ($1.17MM through 2019-20)
F Jimmy Hayes ($867K in 2018-19)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Matt Beleskey ($1.9MM through 2019-20)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Pastrnak (Excluding entry-level contracts)
Worst Value: Backes

Looking Ahead

How the Bruins’ impending restricted free agents perform this year – and next – will go a long way in dictating how the Bruins are constructed and fare with the salary cap moving forward. The team faces the tough task, though anyone would take it, of managing a crop of talented young roster players and a pipeline of promising prospects with a solid group of veterans signed long-term. Doing so won’t be without bumps and bruises and Boston will likely be right up against the salary cap ceiling for some time to come, but the benefit of effectively rebuilding on the fly by bringing in a new young core to support an older core of capable veterans will be years more of contending seasons for the Bruins. The likes of Marchand, Pastrnak, McAvoy, Carlo, DeBrusk, Heinen, Donato, not to mention several more exciting prospects, likely aren’t going anywhere and the team will have to focus on building around them. It’s working with the contracts of players like Backes, Krejci, Chara, Krug, and Rask that could present challenges.

Bruins To Meet With Ilya Kovalchuk

June 14, 2018 at 7:04 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

The Boston Bruins have already been linked to Russian free agent and former NHL superstar Ilya Kovalchuk this off-season, but GM Don Sweeney confirmed the interest today, telling NHL.com’s Amalie Benjamin that he will speak with Kovalchuk and his camp in the coming days. The Bruins are seeking to add a veteran scoring winger to their top six for next season and, if they don’t resign trade deadline acquisition Rick Nash, Kovalchuk could be a suitable replacement. Kovalchuk has already met with the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks, while the Detroit Red Wings, New York Rangers, and Dallas Stars are among others who would like to outbid the Bruins for the big-name import.

Kovalchuk, 35, has been one of if not the best player in the KHL since he bolted from the New Jersey Devils in 2013. Sweeney still believes that the veteran sniper has the ability to left to translate those numbers back to the NHL. A big, strong shooter, Kovalchuk would not only add more talent and some balance to the Bruins roster, but would also be a great stylistic role model for a player like Jake DeBrusk, who he would likely skate beside with center David Krejci. However, the Bruins also liked the chemistry that those two players shared with Nash prior to his concussion late in the regular season. Sweeney stated that they remain in communication with Nash and that financially a deal with one of Nash or Kovalchuk would all but rule out the signing of the other.

If the decision were left up to Ty Anderson of The Sports Hub, he would gladly take Kovalchuk. The Bruins beat writer believes that the Russian goal scorer is the exact kind of gamble that Boston should take this summer to add a difference-maker that can balance their top six. Anderson notes that the Kovalchuk played right wing alongside Zach Parise in New Jersey and found great success and could do the same in Boston. His scoring touch could be what it takes to bring together a Bruins’ second line that paled in comparison to the league’s best line – Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak– last year.

Both Sweeney and Anderson note that the financial flexibility may be needed to sign Kovalchuk – or Nash – to his desired contract. TSN’s Darren Dreger and Pierre LeBrun said the same on “Insider Trading” today, adding that the Bruins would like to move David Backes this summer and may even consider trading Krejci in the right move to free up space. The duo also bring up an interesting twist that the Kovalchuk sweepstakes is having on the trade market. They feel that the suitors for Carolina Hurricanes winger Jeff Skinner are largely the same as those talking to Kovalchuk. They name the Bruins, alongside the Kings and Sharks, as the teams that could look at Skinner if they were to miss out on Kovalchuk. Nash, Kovalchuk, Skinner, and the off-season is just getting started in Boston. A big move could be on the horizon for the Bruins.

Poll: Should the Boston Bruins Break Up Their Top Line?

June 10, 2018 at 10:21 am CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 6 Comments

The Boston Bruins have improved quite a bit in the last few years. After two years of not making the playoffs between the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, the Bruins reached the playoffs a year ago, falling in the first round to the Ottawa Senators. This year, they took it another step, advancing past the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the playoffs before being eliminated in the second round at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

What stopped them from a deeper playoff run was the Lightning’s ability to shutdown the Bruins’ top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak. Considered to be one of the best lines in the NHL, if not the best, that first line combined for 16 goals and 53 points in 12 postseason games. However, among the seven losses they sustained, that top line managed just four goals, 11 points and a minus-23, suggesting the team is too reliant on that top line. Regardless, Marchand had his second-best season of his career last year with 34 goals and 85 points. Bergeron had a high-quality year with 30 goals and 63 points, while Pastrnak had a career-season with 35 goals and 80 points. The three work real well together, when things are going well.

Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports Boston writes that the team might need to look at breaking up its top line and spread the wealth throughout multiple lines. While he admits there is no reason to break up Marchand and Bergeron as the two have been together too long, the scribe believes it better if Pastrnak moves to his own line and stars on a more potent second line, possibly with David Krejci, who has shown good chemistry with Pastrnak in the past and most recently at the World Championships this year.

General manager Don Sweeney said recently that the team is considering that as a possibility, but it’s too early to decide.

“It’s a prolific line, it’s very difficult to stop, and the chemistry that they have created [is special]. We had three people at the World Championships come back and said ‘Boy, [David] Krejci and [David] Pastrnak played really well together’…so those things filter back to the coaches,” said GM Don Sweeney. “I don’t think anything is set in stone. It’s certainly a coach’s decision, but we’ll have some conversations.”

With a number of young, talented players such as Jake Debrusk, Anders Bjork, Danton Heinen and Ryan Donato on the team, perhaps one of them might develop better next to Marchand and Bergeron. It certainly worked for Pastrnak. Bjork, in fact, started the season off on the first line before injuries derailed his season.

Do you think the Bruins should break up their top line?

Should the Bruins break up their top line?

Yes, spread the wealth around to all the lines. 50.22% (226 votes)

No, don't break something that's perfect. 49.78% (224 votes)

Total Votes: 450

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Super Bowl Preview: NHL Edition

February 3, 2018 at 2:17 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

In the biggest sporting event of the year tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Patriots are five-time Super Bowl winners, including two of the past three, while the Eagles are looking for their first ever title in the Super Bowl era. The teams and their histories could not be more different. The same cannot be said for their NHL counterparts, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, who have been rivals from as far back as when they were called the Boston Patriots in the AFL. So, while everyone else debates the ins and outs of the big game tomorrow, let’s take a look at the likely winner through the lens of the Pats’ and Eagles’ hockey-playing neighbors:

Scoring Offense – Advantage: Boston

When it comes to scoring, the Bruins are as dangerous as the Patriots. Boston has 160 goals for on the year, 8th in the league, but in only 49 games, giving them the 5th-best 3.27 goals per game rate. Led by Brad Marchand, who’s scoring .55 goals per game on his own this season, and his line mates Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, who make up the league’s most dangerous line, the Bruins have great offensive potential. The Flyers meanwhile are just 18th in the league in scoring, with 147 goals, and putting up only 2.88 goals per game. However, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux are the two highest scoring players in the match-up, so don’t underestimate Philadelphia’s offensive potential.

Scoring Defense – Advantage: Boston

There’s no better team in the league at preventing goals than the Bruins, who are number one in goals against (120) and goals against per game (2.45). With Tuukka Rask playing Vezina-level hockey and Marchand, Bergeron, and 40-year-old Zdeno Chara (channeling his inner Tom Brady) among the top ten in the league in plus/minus, the Bruins are a force to reckon with on defense. The Flyers have struggled on defense in 2017-18, allowing 150 goals, tied for 19th in goals against. While the defense has been leaky at times, much of the fault lies with the underwhelming goalie duo of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth.

Passing Offense – Advantage: Boston

Passing will be a vital factor in the big game, and the Bruins hold a slight edge. The Bruins have 271 assists on the year compared to the Flyers’ 264. While Voracek is undoubtedly the best passer in the contest, with 50 assists already on the year, Boston’s overall puck movement game is superior, due in no small part to sleek passers on the blue line in Charlie McAvoy and Torey Krug, and several of the best possession players in the league, including the top Corsi player so far in 2017-18, rookie rearguard Matt Grzelcyk.

Turnovers – Advantage: Boston

Turnovers can make or break a game and while both teams are in the red in turnover margin, the totals are not even close. The Bruins have recorded 442 takeaways so far this season, among the best in the league. However, they do give up the puck a fair amount with 465 recorded giveaways, producing a turnover margin of -23. Fortunately for Boston, the Flyers have given up the puck 462 times themselves, but have had no luck at all in taking it back, with only 302 recorded takeaways. That produces an ugly turnover margin of -160 and another big advantage for Boston.

Special Teams – Advantage: Boston

The Bruins’ 7th-ranked power play (21.71%) and 5th-ranked penalty kill (83.33%) make them one of, if not the best special teams squad in the NHL. They capitalize on the opposition’s penalties, but don’t let their own penalties cost them. That will be especially helpful against Philadelphia, who takes fewer penalties per game than Boston and is just behind the B’s in power play efficiency; their 21.39% success rate is good enough for 8th. However, Philly has struggled greatly short-handed, with the league’s third-worst penalty kill (73.89%).

Super Bowl Prediction: New England in a landslide

It’s been a few years since the Bruins were playing at a level anywhere near the dynastic Patriots, but in 2017-18 they are right there. Compared to the Flyers in all the important (and possible to compare) football statistics, it’s not even close. If the Patriots channel the Bruins, they should roll over the Eagles like they’ve rolled over the NFL for close to 20 years. One final note: the Pats have struggled to score early and have had to come from behind in each of their last two Super Bowl wins and even their AFC Championship win two weeks ago – the Bruins have the second-best points percentage in the NHL this season when allowing the first goal. It all lines up.

Who Is On Pace To Score 60 Points In 2017-18?

December 31, 2017 at 9:24 am CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

In 2016-17, only 42 NHLers hit the 60-point benchmark for the season. It was the lowest total since the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season (obviously), when only Martin St. Louis notched sixty, and down eleven from the 53 players who hit the mark two years earlier in 2014-15. However, with scoring up this season in the NHL, will the league increase it’s number of top scorers? Or will a greater depth and distribution of talent continue to limit players from reaching the high numbers of yesteryear?

As of now, with the 2017 segment of the season about to close, here are the players on pace for 60 points in 2017-18:

Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 54 points in 37 games, Projection: 120 points
Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 48 points in 37 games, Projection: 107 points
John Tavares, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Currently: 49 points in 38 games, Projection: 106 points
Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 46 points in 38 games, Projection: 99 points
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 45 points in 38 games, Projection: 97 points
Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 43 points in 37 games, Projection: 95 points
Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 44 points in 39 games, Projection: 93 points
Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames – Currently: 41 points in 38 games, Projection: 89 points
Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 41 points in 39 games, Projection: 86 points
Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals – Currently: 41 points in 40 games, Projection: 84 points
Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 40 points in 39 games, Projection: 84 points
Anders Lee, New York Islanders – Currently: 39 points in 38 games, Projection: 84 points
Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks – Currently: 38 points in 37 games, Projection: 84 points
Brock Boeser*, Vancouver Canucks – Currently: 38 points in 36 games, Projection: 84 points
Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 41 points in 41 games, Projection: 82 points
Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins – Currently: 32 points in 29 games, Projection: 82 points
Jon Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 34 points in 33 games, Projection: 81 points
Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals – Currently: 39 points in 40 games, Projection: 80 points
Taylor Hall, New Jersey Devils – Currently: 36 points in 36 games, Projection: 80 points
Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
Vincent Trocheck, Florida Panthers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
Mathew Barzal*, New York Islanders – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 36 points in 38 games, Projection: 78 points
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 35 games, Projection: 78 points
Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues – Currently: 38 points in 41 games, Projection: 76 points
Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 35 points in 38 games, Projection: 75 points
David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 34 points in 37 games, Projection: 75 points
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars – Currently: 35 points in 39 games, Projection: 74 points
David Perron, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 30 games, Projection: 74 points
Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres – Currently: 34 points in 38 games, Projection: 73 points
Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 33 points in 37 games, Projection: 73 points
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 32 points in 34 games, Projection: 73 points
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 29 games, Projection: 72 points
Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars – Currently: 34 points in 39 games, Projection: 71 points
Vlad Namestnikov, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 32 points in 37 games, Projection: 71 points
Eric Staal, Minnesota Wild – Currently: 33 points in 39 games, Projection: 70 points
Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 18 points in 15 games, Projection: 70 points
Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames – Currently: 32 points in 38 games, Projection: 69 points
Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings – Currently: 31 points in 37 games, Projection: 69 points
John Klingberg, Dallas Stars – Currently: 32 points in 39 games, Projection: 67 points
William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 29 points in 36 games, Projection: 66 points
Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche – Currently: 28 points in 33 games, Projection: 66 points
Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers – Currently: 29 points in 35 games, Projection: 66 points
Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
Alexander Radulov, Dallas Stars – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 31 points in 39 games, Projection: 65 points
Clayton Keller*, Arizona Coyotes – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
John Carlson, Washington Capitals – Currently: 31 points in 40 games, Projection: 64 points
Reilly Smith, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 28 points in 36 games, Projection: 64 points
Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets – Currently: 30 points in 39 games, Projection: 63 points
P.K. Subban, Nashville Predators – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
Mats Zuccarello, New York Rangers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
Teuvo Teravainen, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes – Currently: 29 points in 38 games, Projection: 62 points
James Neal, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 62 points
Kyle Turris, Nashville Predators – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 62 points
Danton Heinen*, Boston Bruins – Currently: 26 points in 33 games, Projection: 62 points
Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
Dustin Brown, Los Angeles Kings – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs – Currently: 29 points in 39 games, Projection: 61 points
Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders – Currently: 28 points in 38 games, Projection: 61 points
Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks – Currently: 26 points in 35 games, Projection: 61 points
Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild – 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
Rickard Rakell, Anaheim Ducks – Currently: 27 points in 34 games, Projection: 61 points
Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 36 games, Projection: 61 points
Erik Haula, Vegas Golden Knights – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 61 points
Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning – Currently: 27 points in 37 games, Projection: 60 points
Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins- Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points
Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators – Currently: 25 points in 32 games, Projection: 60 points

So there you have it. If these 77 skaters stay healthy, the 2017-18 season will easily surpass the down 2016-17 campaign could come close to doubling that number of skaters to score 60+ points, setting a new high since the last lockout in the process. Of course, health is always the main factor and the reason why players who were previously on pace for 60+ points (Jaden Schwartz, Mark Scheifele, Filip Forsberg, Logan Couture, Tyson Barrie) are currently impossible to project. They could just as easily bounce back quickly from injury and make this benchmark as they could struggle to return to health and miss it. Will all 75 of these players hit 60+ points? Probably not, though for each one that drops out, another player such as Thomas Vanek, Alex Pietrangelo, David Krejci, William Nylander or Brent Burns could go on a hot streak and jump right into the mix. For now, this is the the current picture in the race to 60 points.

Surprises in the current projections:

Lightning, Islanders, and Flyers stars make up the top six projected scorers, with Nikita Kucherov way ahead of everybody. Kucherov could potentially outscore talented teammates Victor Hedman and Tyler Johnson combined.
Tampa is joined by Vegas with six players apiece on the list; that’s two teams making up 16% of the league’s top scorers. Add in the Isles’ five players and you have three teams with a 23% share.
The Montreal Canadiens are the only team without a player trending toward 60+ points and they aren’t even close. Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, and Alex Galchenyuk are all only on pace for 44 points.
How about Kings veteran Dustin Brown on pace for 62 points after five straight seasons of failing to crack 40? Or rarely talked-about Bruins rookie Danton Heinen eyeing 63 points? Neither would have been anywhere near the conversation for 60+ points prior to the season.
Four rookies are on pace for 60+ points, led by the extremely impressive Brock Boeser, while Joe Thornton is amazingly the only player over 33 on the same path.

Injuries Unending In Boston; Krejci, DeBrusk Join Sidelined

November 28, 2017 at 7:35 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 6 Comments

Boston Bruins beat writer Joe Haggerty could not have said it better: “You can’t make this stuff up”. The unbelievable rash of injuries continues in Boston, as center David Krejci and rookie winger Jake DeBrusk have been ruled out for Wednesday night’s match-up against the Atlantic-leading Tampa Bay Lightning.

The sheer number of injuries suffered by the Bruins this season, especially among the forward corps, is hard to comprehend. 22 games into the 2017-18 campaign the only forward to have played every game are David Pastrnak and energy-liners-turned-top-nine-mainstays Riley Nash, Sean Kuraly, and Tim Schaller. While there is no word yet on the extent of DeBrusk’s injury, the young scorer has been one of the Bruins’ more dependable forwards with 12 points in 21 games, but of course he now joins the long list of casualties. Currently out of the lineup alongwith DeBrusk and Krejci, who had only just returned to action, are 2016-17 leading scorer Brad Marchand, veteran David Backes, power play catalyst Ryan Spooner, promising rookies Anders Bjork and Peter Cehlarik and, of course, defenseman Adam McQuaid as well. Spooner just recently re-injured the groin that had kept him out all but eight games on the season. In the same game, Cehlarik suffered a leg injury that should keep him out at least a month. Marchand and Bjork have been sidelined since November 13th and there has been no concrete information on when exactly either can be expected back. Backes has made a remarkably quick recovery from major surgery to cure his diverticulitis, but he too is not quite ready to return and there are doubts about how he will play once he is back. Other Bruins forward who have missed time already this season: Patrice Bergeron (5 games), Noel Acciari (13 games), and Matt Beleskey (2 games).

The defense has done a bit better though, with captain Zdeno Chara and talented youngsters Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo all suiting up for every game. Kevan Miller has missed only one game, while Torey Krug’s four-game absence seems like nothing. A platoon of Paul Postma, Rob O’Gara and Matt Grzelcyk has performed well enough in the absence of McQuaid.

In total, the Bruins have missed a whopping 100 man-games already this season, far more than any other team in the league and heavily weighted toward their forwards. That makes it all the more impressive that the team is still sitting pretty in the Atlantic Division. In terms of points percentage, the B’s are third in the Atlantic and just behind the two-time Cup-champion Pittsburgh Penguins overall. Their 60 goals for may a bottom-five number in the NHL, but what would you expect from a two-way team missing most of its offensive talent? A recent winning streak showed that the Bruins and head coach Bruce Cassidy can get it done, even with a makeshift roster. There is no sign of when Boston will get back to full strength, if ever this season, but if they do it could be dangerous for the rest of the NHL.

Atlantic Notes: Pastrnak, Lightning, Hicketts, Krejci

October 29, 2017 at 2:23 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 2 Comments

It wasn’t the best matchup for the Boston Bruins Saturday, but the team allowed right wing David Pastrnak to take the faceoff with 0.9 seconds remaining in their overtime game with the Los Angeles Kings. According to Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe, had Pastrnak just got a stick on the puck, things wouldn’t have spiraled out of control in that short amount of time. Instead, the Kings’ Anze Kopitar won a clean faceoff and passed it to Tyler Toffoli, who blasted it past Boston goaltender Tuuka Rask with 0.4 seconds left, allowing the Kings to walk away with a shocking victory. If you haven’t seen it, catch the video here.

According to Shinzawa, Pastrnak still was the best option for who was out there between Anders Bjork and Torey Krug, but he should have done anything, even illegal, to keep the Bruins from allowing a clean faceoff. A penalty would have only given the Kings an extra attacker, which would have made little difference with 0.9 seconds remaining, but it could have allowed Boston to substitute with a better face-off specialist like Patrice Bergeron.

“All we’re asking him to do is basically affect the puck there,” said coach Bruce Cassidy. “Not even win it. We don’t need to win it. We just need some sort of stick on it so it bounces toward the boards. I think that’s what David was thinking. If he could push it toward the boards, it has no chance of going backwards. Didn’t happen.”

Brandon Burns of NHL.com writes that special teams is what let the Tampa Bay Lightning down in Saturday’s 4-1 loss to the Anaheim Ducks. The scribe writes that it has been the team’s special teams that has made the difference in the team’s success this season. While the team only found itself in two penalty killing situations all game, Tampa Bay allowed goals both times, while the power play had four power play chances and couldn’t convert, something the team has done in 10 of 11 games. Neither Steven Stamkos or Nikita Kucherov were able to get on the scoreboard, breaking both of their scoring streaks at 11 games.
Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Detroit Red Wings should be taking a long look at Grand Rapids Griffins defenseman Joe Hicketts as a potential callup to fix the team’s defensive struggles. The 21-year-old undrafted free agent has impressed the organization and almost made the team out of training camp with his physical play, despite his 5-foot-8, 177-pound frame. The scribe breaks down Hicketts’ play and points out that he is the perfect player to shake up the team’s failing blueline.
The Boston Bruins tweeted that veterean center David Krejci will miss Monday’s game against the Columbus Blue Jackets with what’s believed to be a back injury. Krejci, who missed Saturday’s game against the Kings, has one goal and five assists in six games, centering the Bruins top line. David Backes will likely fill in for him in that spot again.

Restricted Free Agents Still To Sign

September 15, 2017 at 3:30 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

Originally published on August 8th, and updated as of September 15th.

While the offseason has crawled along, name after name has been knocked off the list of restricted free agents as teams try to put together their roster for next season. With Monday’s signing of Barclay Goodrow by the San Jose Sharks, there are only 20 RFAs remaining unsigned for the 2017-18 season.

Heading that list is still Leon Draisaitl and David Pastrnak, two young superstars looking for a long-term payday before they turn 22. Each of them scored at least 70 points last season and have established themselves in the top tier around the league. Past them there is still a ton of talent. Alexander Wennberg and Bo Horvat make up the next tier of RFAs, coming off 50+ point seasons and key building blocks for their respective teams down the middle. Both just 22-years old they’ll be important contracts for Columbus and Vancouver to deal with before training camp starts.

After that, the list is dotted with several useful players who should have full-time roles this season along with some who are on the edge of the NHL still. Calgary leads the way with three remaining, while many teams have all their free agents locked up. Below is a list of the remaining free agents, along with their point totals from last year.

Andreas Athanasiou (DET) – 64 GP, 18 G, 11 A, 29 P

Josh Anderson (CBJ) – 78 GP, 17 G, 12 A, 29 P

Nikita Zadorov (COL) – 56 GP, 0 G 10 A, 10 P (Signed, two years, $4.3MM)

Marcus Foligno (MIN) – 80 GP, 13 G, 10 A, 23 P (Signed, four years, $11.5MM)

David Pastrnak (BOS) – 75 GP, 34 G, 36 A, 70 P (Signed, six years, $40MM)

Leon Draisaitl (EDM) – 82 GP, 29 G, 48 A, 77 P (Signed, eight years, $68MM)

Alexander Wennberg (CBJ) – 80 GP, 13 G, 46 A, 59 P (Signed, six years, $29.4MM)

Bo Horvat (VAN) – 81 GP, 20 G, 32 A, 52 P (Signed, six years, $33MM)

Connor Brown (TOR) – 82 GP, 20 G, 16 A, 36 P (Signed, three years, $6.3MM)

Damon Severson (NJD) – 80 GP, 3 G, 28 A, 31 P (Signed, six years, $25MM)

Sam Bennett (CGY) – 81 GP, 13 G, 13 A, 26 P (Signed, two years, $3.9MM)

Zemgus Girgensons (BUF) – 75 GP, 7 G, 9 A, 16 P (Signed, two years, $3.2MM)

Anthony Duclair (ARZ) – 58 GP, 5 G, 10 A, 15 P (Signed, one year, $1.2MM)

Brendan Gaunce (VAN) – 57 GP, 0 G, 5 A, 5 P (Signed, two years $1.5MM)

Brett Kulak (CGY) – 21 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 3P (Signed, one year, $650K)

Robbie Russo (DET) – 19 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P (Signed, two years, $650K)

Petteri Lindbohm (STL) – 7 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P (Signed, one year, undisclosed)

Tyler Wotherspoon (CGY) – 4 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P (Signed, one year, $650K)

Jean-Sebastien Dea (PIT) – 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P (Signed, one year, $650K)

Tye McGinn (TB) – 0 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P (Signed, one year, undisclosed)

David Pastrnak Signs Six-Year Contract

September 14, 2017 at 9:06 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 5 Comments

The Boston Bruins and David Pastrnak have finally come to terms, signing a six-year $40MM contract. The deal will pay Pastrnak an average of $6.67MM throughout the deal, which at first glance looks like a tremendous value.

Breaking out this season with 34 goals and 70 points, Pastrnak showed why he was so highly coveted by the Bruins organization and proved he could be an elite offensive talent. At just 21, he’s now completed three seasons in the NHL meaning this extension buys out only two UFA years. That length, which will make him a unrestricted free agent at 27, is why the cap hit is so much lower than someone like Leon Draisaitl, who was compared to Pastrnak all offseason. Draisaitl gave up three UFA years, but received an $8.5MM AAV on his new contract.

More similar is the deal Filip Forsberg signed last summer after his own entry-level contract expired. Forsberg received $34MM over six years, but was a year older than Pastrnak is now and didn’t have quite the high in terms of points. Forsberg backed up his deal with another 30-goal campaign, a path Bruins fans will hope Pastrnak follows.

One of the more interesting things is that Pastrnak’s average salary comes in right between Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, something that had been reported as important to the team. Though Marchand told them it was fine if the new contract surpassed his, they likely still didn’t want it to far outpace the two superstar forwards. It would have, had the term been extended to eight years.

While the deal seems good for the Bruins, it’s almost perfect for Pastrnak as well. He gets paid a hefty salary and entirely avoids the arbitration process, and will hit the market in 2023 as an in-his-prime scoring machine that could demand another huge contract. Obviously the Bruins will want to keep him around even longer, but he’ll likely have the ability to demand an eight-year contract from any team that wants to buy out UFA years (as long as the CBA stays the same).

Some may point to the fact that Pastrnak has “only had one good year,” but the Bruins certainly don’t think that he was just a flash in the pan. Even in his first two seasons he still scored at more than a 40-point pace, and those were mostly played as a teenager. If he continues to develop, he could be pushing Marchand for the team scoring lead as soon as this season.

The deal also has ramifications elsewhere around the league. Young wingers like William Nylander, Mitch Marner and Patrik Laine will be looking to get paid in the next couple of seasons, and there is now another sub-$7MM extension for an elite scorer. While Draisaitl’s deal likely gives them a top end to negotiate towards—though he has played plenty of center during his short career as well—Pastrnak, Forsberg and Johnny Gaudreau give them something more realistic to work up from. You can bet this deal will be brought up in negotiations for the next several years.

Darren Dreger of TSN was first to report the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On David Pastrnak’s Contract Talks

September 13, 2017 at 2:39 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

David Pastrnak is one of the five remaining unsigned restricted free agents, and easily the most important one to his team. As training camp is set to open tomorrow the Boston Bruins have yet to come to some sort of an agreement with the young sniper, and as agent J.P. Barry told Joe Haggerty of CSNNE there’s “no breakthrough yet.” Pastrnak is still in the Czech Republic, and has decided not to attend camp with the Bruins until a deal is done. Darren Dreger of TSN gets the feeling that something is coming later tonight, but there are definitely still obstacles to overcome.

One such obstacle is the KHL, which has reportedly already given offers to Pastrnak to play in Russia next season. It remains extremely unlikely that he would go there, as he’s maintained all along that he loves Boston and wants to play for the Bruins long-term, but it is still a negotiating tactic his camp can use. The added proposition of playing in the Olympics is just another factor on the KHL’s side, given that Pastrnak would likely be the Czech Republic’s top forward (sorry, Jaromir).

For Bruins fans still wringing their hands with anxiety, remember that holdouts for big name RFAs happen often. Last year, Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Kucherov all signed just before the season began, with no ill-will between the two sides. Though Hampus Lindholm, Rickard Rakell and Jacob Trouba ended up holding out into the season, there is no reason to think Pastrnak would do the same. Instead, he’s more likely to just miss a few days of training camp before a long-term contract is announced. Dreger reports that they’ve been looking at 5-8 years, though it’s still unclear where they will land.

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