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Jeff Skinner

Jeff Skinner To Miss Three-To-Four Weeks

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Friday night was a tough one for the Sabres.  They struggled in a 3-0 loss to Boston and in the process, they lost one of their top offensive threats as the team announced that winger Jeff Skinner will miss the next three-to-four weeks due to an upper-body injury.  The injury occurred early in the third period in a collision with Boston winger David Pastrnak.

Skinner is only a year removed from scoring 40 goals although that production hasn’t quite carried over to this season.  He currently sits fifth in team scoring with 11 goals and eight assists through 39 contests which isn’t the point total they were hoping for when they signed him to an eight-year, $72MM deal back in June.

Nonetheless, it’s another blow to Buffalo’s forward group which has multiple players out already and has seen several others struggle this season.  GM Jason Botterill is known to be shopping multiple defensemen for help up front and while this injury could help a deal like that along, they’ve also lost some leverage with other teams in the process.

After a strong start to the season, Buffalo has won just one of their last six games and have dropped out of a playoff spot in the process with all of the teams battling with them for the final guaranteed playoff spot in the Atlantic having games in hand on them.  Now they’ll be forced to try to get back in without one of their better offensive players for the next little while.

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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Free agency is now just a few days away and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. The Buffalo Sabres, now that they have inked Jeff Skinner to an eight-year, $72MM deal earlier this month, don’t have as much to worry about as the team has neither many important restricted or unrestricted free agents they need to worry about.

Key Restricted Free Agent: G Linus Ullmark – The Sabres may not have gotten the season they were hoping for from free agent goaltender Carter Hutton, but they also had high hopes for Ullmark to take the next step and establish himself as a solid backup to the veteran. However, whether that will be the case is another question. While Ullmark looked early on in the season like the answer as the team’s backup, his play started to slip as the year wore on and he struggled especially late in the season, eventually finishing with a 3.11 GAA and a .905 save percentage. However, with no other young goalie particularly close to being ready to challenge him, it’s likely the Sabres will give Ullmark another year to develop his body for the long-haul for the season.

F Zemgus Girgensons – While hardly an impact player, the Sabres have been using the 25-year-old as a bottom-line depth option for six years already as he provides the team with some size and grit that the team needs at the bottom of their line-up. While he hasn’t broken the 10-goal mark since the 2014-15 season (he scored five last year), he did finish with 144 hits last season, his highest numbers since his rookie season. The question is whether the team sees him as a long-term option as he is one year away from becoming a unrestricted free-agent.

F Evan Rodrigues – The team has like what it has seen from Rodrigues, who signed with Buffalo after four years at Boston University and has since worked his way through the AHL and finally saw a full season in Buffalo this year. While his numbers were quite pedestrian as he finished the year with nine goals and 29 points, he has seen increased playing time and the team hopes he can still provide some middle-six depth for the team, although he should receive a slight raise from the $650K that he made last season.

Other RFAs: F Remi Elie, F Johan Larsson, D Jake McCabe, F C.J. Smith

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Jason Pominville – He has played 11 seasons for Buffalo over the course of his career and despite hitting 36 years of age, the team may consider bringing back the veteran as an inexpensive depth option. After all, he posted 16 goals last season, while playing a career-low 12:28 last season. While he certainly wasn’t worth the $5.6MM he was making last season, he would be worth a low-cost deal, who could provide the team’s youth with a veteran presence.

Other UFAs: F Eric Cornel, F Kyle Criscuolo, D Jack Dougherty, F Taylor Leier, F Sean Malone, D Brycen Martin, F Matt Moulson, F Daniel O’Regan; D Matt Tennyson, G Scott Wedgewood, G Adam Wilcox

Projected Cap Space: The Sabres currently sit a little more than $15MM under the cap ceiling, according to CapFriendly, and should have some cap room to try to find some offense to help out their struggling second line. With the recent addition of defenseman Colin Miller from Vegas, the team should be in good shape with their defense, but the team’s biggest problem was putting the puck in the net, which the team hopes that it can improve on with the right roster moves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agency Notes: Edler, Hayes, Pavelski, Krug

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When Alex Edler asked Vancouver not to move him at the NHL Trade Deadline, many assumed it was precursor to an extension between the long-time Canuck and his team. Yet, as the weeks have passed and no resolution has emerged, that expectation grew less and less certain. Now, after a month or so of reports that term and expansion protection were coming between the two sides, it seems the deal is dead and Edler will hit the open market. Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal reports that it does not sound like the Canucks and Edler will get a deal done by July 1st. This does not entirely rule out a return to Vancouver, but it will be substantially harder to convince him to come back after he’s tested the waters and likely found teams willing to give him the desired term and No-Movement Clause. This especially rings true today, as Erik Karlsson’s extension leaves a thin defense market even weaker and D-needy teams will have little choice but to meet the demands of Edler and fellow top free agents like Jake Gardiner and Tyler Myers. It would not be surprise to now see Vancouver make a hard push for one of those two as well, as they seek an upgrade on the blue line but were not willing to give the 33-year-old Edler a long-term deal or risk losing young players to protect an aging veteran in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.

  • It’s been a roller coaster of reports on Kevin Hayes since the moment his negotiating rights were acquired by the Philadelphia Flyers from the Winnipeg Jets. The Flyers obviously became the favorite to sign the free agent center given their early access, but there have since been reports followed by other conflicting reports about how talks have been going between the two sides. Finally, trusted Flyers source Frank Seravalli of TSN has chimed in and he has only good news for Philly fans. Seravalli reports that the two sides have made good progress and that talks are trending toward a contract. He stops short of guaranteeing a deal gets done, but believes that it will. This would remove yet another major name from the free agent market, following Karlsson, Jeff Skinner, and Jordan Eberle. And like those three, reports of a deal being close have so far been proven true this off-season.
  • The sheer magnitude of Karlsson’s new contract with the Sharks has surprised many and has reinforced the narrative that San Jose will have to lose other key free agents to re-sign the talented defenseman. While he wouldn’t speak specifically about talks with those players, GM Doug Wilson did warn not to make assumptions when asked about Joe Pavelski, per The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz. Wilson says that nothing has been ruled out, making a Pavelski return a possibility. He also spoke to the importance of getting Karlsson under contract “well before July 1st”, specifically so that the team can plan around their new salary cap paradigm. It still remains a long-shot barring trades to remove salary from the current roster, but until Pavelski, a career Shark, puts pen to paper elsewhere, he remains a possibility for San Jose.
  • Boston defenseman Torey Krug will not be a free agent until next summer, but he has already proven that he is worth a significant raise in his next contract. The Bruins’ power play magician is fifth among all NHL defensemen in regular season scoring over the past three years and second only to Erik Karlsson in playoff scoring. Karlsson’s new extension, along with the contracts of players like John Carlson and Victor Hedman, raise the bar for what Krug might be looking for in his next deal. Even though he has some struggles defensively, it is fair to assume that his current $5.25MM cap hit will not cut it. This leaves the Bruins in a difficult spot, as they must first re-sign elite young defensemen Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo this summer. Those moves will leave Boston with little cap space this off-season and not much more the following year when Krug needs a new contract. Yet, speaking with the media today, GM Don Sweeney made it clear that his intent is not to trade the mobile defender, nor to let him leave after next season:

If somebody blew us away (with a trade offer for Krug), every player has to be looked at in that way. When you’re an organization, you just have to, you’re doing a disservice if you don’t. But it would take a pretty unique opportunity for us to part with Torey. We think he’s a big part of the fabric of our group. He’s kind of that next wave of leadership that we talk about.

Erik Karlsson Re-Signs With San Jose Sharks

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UPDATE: The Sharks have now officially announced the Karlsson extension and it is worth even more than previously believed. Karlsson is set to make $11.5MM on average over an eight-year term for a total of $92MM, according to CapFriendly. That includes $53MM in signing bonuses, largely front loaded in the early years for potential lockout protection, as well as in the final two years to dissuade a buyout. The contract also includes a full No-Movement Clause. There is little doubt remaining that San Jose is all in on Karlsson given these terms, which make Karlsson the highest paid defenseman in NHL history and behind only Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews overall. The Sharks simply have to hope that he can get back to full health and remain that way as long as possible, while those teams that missed out on a chance to court him this summer have to hope that the somewhat underwhelming replacement options don’t drastically increase their asking price.

 

It’s been an ongoing narrative early this off-season that the San Jose Sharks were willing to do whatever it takes to re-sign Erik Karlsson, after the all-world defenseman played well – when healthy – in his first season with the team. Karlsson is considered not just the top defenseman on the free agent market, but arguably the biggest name overall, and that’s taking into account his injury concerns. Few defensemen in the NHL can do what a healthy Karlsson can offensively and the 29-year-old was set to cash in on the open market. Yet, it seems that GM Doug Wilson and the Sharks have convinced Karlsson that he doesn’t need to test the waters to find a considerable contract and a winning team. TSN insider Bob McKenzie reports that “all signs are pointing” to Karlsson returning to San Jose and colleague Pierre LeBrun follows it up by stating that “a deal is indeed done.”

McKenzie is hardly the first to report that extension talks were getting close between the two sides, but when the respected hockey mind makes a pronouncement like this, it generally carries significant weight. LeBrun thus checked in himself and found previous reports that the two sides were talking about a contract in the neighborhood of Drew Doughty’s eight-year, $88MM contract to be true. LeBrun believes that is will be an eight-year deal worth more than Doughty’s $11MM AAV. This would make Karlsson’s cap hit the third-largest in NHL history.

Unless his negotiating rights were to be traded prior to July 1st, the Sharks were always going to be the only team that could offer Karlsson that valuable eight year. However, it is likely their willingness to move into the double-digit AAV realm that pushed negotiations closer to a resolution. Especially in a season in which Karlsson missed 29 games due to injury, there was plenty of speculation that his value would take a hit on the free agent market, resulting in lesser term or at least a lower dollar value over a long-term deal. Instead, the Sharks seemingly plan to keep Karlsson in town by offering him the same contract he likely would have landed prior to this past season and hope that recent groin surgery solves the nagging soft tissue damage that cost the superstar blue liner so much time this season.

Assuming this extension becomes official shortly, it will have wide-ranging effects. San Jose cannot afford to re-sign Karlsson to this contract and also re-up restricted free agents Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc without making some sacrifices. Priority unrestricted free agents like Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Gustav Nyquist, and Joonas Donskoi cannot all return if any can. Signing even one of those players may force the Sharks to move out other salary from the roster. Additionally, per the terms of the original Karlsson trade, San Jose will also surrender a 2021 second-round pick to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for extending their acquisition. As for the rest of the free agent market, one of the top names is now off the board. The demand and thus the price for the next tier of defensemen – Jake Gardiner and Tyler Myers – just went up, as did the cost of bringing in a big name like Artemi Panarin or Matt Duchene after both Karlsson and Jeff Skinner received larger contracts than expected.

The greater story here though is that the Sharks’ Stanley Cup window, which some saw as closing if Karlsson, Pavelski, and Thornton were all to leave, has now been extended with the re-signing of one of the game’s best defensemen, so long as he can stay healthy. With Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic together on the blue line for at least six more years and core forwards like Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl, and soon Meier locked up, the team has strength at both ends and will continue to be a top competitor year in and year out.

 

Sabres Notes: Skinner, Pominville, Trade Options

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The Buffalo Sabres accomplished their biggest offseason task on Friday evening when it signed winger Jeff Skinner to a eight-year, $72MM extension. Regardless, despite being able to convince a top player to sign a long-term deal in Buffalo, there are a number of significant ramifications that go with the Sabres’ locking up the 27-year-old.

Skinner and Jack Eichel will now combine for 22.5 percent of the team’s salary cap, which is the sixth-highest number for teams’ top two players. While the Sabres have cap room to work with, the team may find themselves in trouble down the road, according to the Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski. In fact, Buffalo general manager Jason Botterill may have trouble in a few years when he tries to sign some of the team’s other young pieces, including Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin, Brandon Montour and Casey Mittelstadt, which could give the team some issues with improving in the near future. All that for a team that didn’t come close to making the playoffs this past season.

  • The Athletic’s Jon Vogl (subscription required) writes that the Sabres had no choice but to sign Skinner to long-term deal. While the scribe admits that the money is significant, the team couldn’t have handled losing their first-line winger, considering the significant amount of cap space the franchise has both this year and next and the near-impossible task of replacing him. Not signing him would have been worse than overpaying him. Regardless, this should give Botterill an extended chance to prove that he is a competent GM as he will have to assemble the rest of the team’s roster for the next few years, even if Skinner doesn’t pan out over the long haul.
  • In a separate note, Lysowski also reports that the team is in discussions with  forward Jason Pominville and are hoping to bring the veteran back on a cheaper deal. While no longer a top-six option, the 36-year-old Pominville has worked effectively as a bottom-six forward who can produce some offense, as he potted 16 goals last season. The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington adds that Buffalo should offer him a one-year deal between $2-2.5MM and have him play a big role on the team’s fourth line as well as the penalty kill unit.
  • Pierre LeBrun, in a notebook piece for The Athletic (subscription required), reports that Buffalo isn’t done making moves to improve its team this season. The Sabres are looking to add a second-line center and/or a top-six winger to its roster to improve its scoring for next season. LeBrun adds that one name that Buffalo has inquired on is Minnesota Wild winger Jason Zucker and he also wonders whether the team would consider taking on the contract of Kyle Turris in Nashville to fill their center void.

Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres Agree To Long-Term Extension

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9:27 PM: It is official now and McKenzie was right on the mark with the terms. The Buffalo Sabres have announced an eight-year, $72MM extension with leading goal scorer Jeff Skinner. Skinner’s eight-year term is the NHL maximum and one only the Sabres could have awarded him. His new $9MM AAV is one that only 13 other forwards have topped, including teammate Jack Eichel. The Sabres hope that this investment can keep those two stars playing together on the team’s top line and dominating the competition en route to a return to the postseason.

8:46 PM: It was widely assumed that the Buffalo Sabres and star forward Jeff Skinner would eventually come to terms on a contract extension. After all, both sides benefited from the partnership in year one. Skinner enjoyed one of his best seasons to date, including potting a career-high 40 goals, while the Sabres landed a surefire top-line forward, who finished third on the team in scoring and found chemistry with young centerpieces Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart. Now, it appears that this speculation is about to pay off. TSN’s venerable insider, Bob McKenzie, reports that Buffalo is closing in on signing Skinner to an eight-year extension, thought to be in the realm of $9MM AAV.

If this $72MM deal comes together, Skinner could wind up in the upper echelon of NHL players when it comes to contract value. P.K. Subban, the only other player in the league with a $9MM cap hit, is currently ranked 16th in the league in AAV. The next players on the list are at $9.5MM, likely outside of the projected ranger for Skinner, but anything between a $9MM and $8.7MM AAV would put Skinner right there with Subban. Among those Subban would pass up include Sidney Crosby, Leon Draisaitl, Steven Stamkos, Claude Giroux, and Logan Couture. Obviously, the salary cap ceiling is increasing and Skinner’s cost is a function of that, but this is still a considerable leap for a player whose last contract was a six-year deal with a $5.75MM AAV with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Whether or not Skinner’s reported new value is a fair representation of his ability is up for debate. What’s not up for debate is that Buffalo can afford to offer this contract and possibly overpaying is better than the alternative. The Sabres are currently ranked 25th in committed salary cap entering the off-season with more than $29MM in space and Skinner is arguably their only priority free agent. Buffalo is a team that desperately want to improve, especially after a hot start was followed by an embarrassing second half and would up in yet another disappointing finish. Letting Skinner walk in free agency would be a nightmare for the team and GM Jason Botterill would rather gamble with his job down the line than almost surely lose it in the present if he failed to retain or somehow substantially replace Skinner. Will the 27-year-old be worth $9MM when he’s 35 years old? Almost certainly not, but that’s the trade-off of every long-term UFA contract. In the short-term this would be a great deal to hold on to a talented player who has been a great fit.

Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Skinner, Sustr

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It’s draft season, and the final rankings from several of the hockey world’s leading scouts are starting to come out. Today marked the release of Corey Pronman’s first 2019 mock draft for The Athletic (subscription required), and Craig Button’s top-31 prospects for TSN. Pronman’s mock details some of the rumblings he has heard at the draft combine and elsewhere, and interestingly notes there is still no consensus on who the Chicago Blackhawks will be taking at third overall.

While Pronman lists Alex Turcotte there hesitantly, Button has CHL defenseman Bowen Byram as the third best prospect available. More notable than that even is Button’s ranking of Cole Caufield, who has continued to fly up boards as we close in on the draft later this month. The diminutive forward climbs to fourth on the TSN list, with even more lauding of his ability to put the puck in the net.

  • Bob McKenzie of TSN will release his final draft rankings a little later in the month, but he did tweet out a note regarding Buffalo Sabres forward Jeff Skinner today. McKenzie notes that it is “crunch time” in the negotiations between Buffalo and Skinner, and expects either a deal will get done in the next few days or the sniper will wait until unrestricted free agency. The TSN insider expects an eight-year deal worth $72MM, or something thereabouts. Skinner, 27, is coming off a 40-goal season and has made it clear he does enjoy playing with the Sabres. Still, a $72MM price tag is awfully expensive for any team.
  • A report out of Russia has Andrej Sustr signing a one-year deal with Kunlun Red Star of the KHL, though there has been no formal confirmation at this point. The 28-year old defenseman is set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 after his current deal expires, and spent last season almost entirely in the minor leagues. Sustr was once a full-time member of the Tampa Bay Lightning blue line, but fell out of favor and never found his footing in the Anaheim Ducks organization.

UFA Notes: Skinner, Engelland, Pardy

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Buffalo Sabres fans were hoping that 40-goal scorer Jeff Skinner would be re-signed by now and each day closer to July 1st increases the nervousness that they are feeling. However, TSN reports that GM Jason Botterill is not worried, at least not yet. Botterill remains confident that the two sides will come together on an extension, which as of the last update was in the eight years and $70-80MM range. Unless Skinner’s rights are dealt elsewhere, which seems unlikely given the GM’s optimism, no other team can match the Sabres’ offer given the benefit of that eight year. Botterill says that talks with Skinner have been ongoing since January, but there was brief pause in negotiations while Buffalo searched for their new head coach. However, Botterill notes that Skinner has since spoken to that new hire, Ralph Krueger, who also believes that Skinner will remain a Sabre. It seems that the two sides are back on a positive path, but with time running out before the free agent market opens, no assumptions can be made just yet.

  • The Vegas Golden Knights are also hoping to re-sign a key player, veteran leader Deryk Engelland. However, the Knights are not going up against competing offers, but rather the draw of retirement. Engelland, 37, has enjoyed a decade of NHL action and could be tempted to hang them up. If he chooses to keep playing though, there is little doubt that he would only stay in his adopted home town of Las Vegas. Knowing this, The Sin Bin reports that the Golden Knights have made an offer to their alternate captain. It’s likely another bonus-laded, low cap hit one-year contract like the one he has signed in each of the past two years. At this time, Sin Bin notes that he has yet to accept. Engelland will likely take some time to consider his next step in his career after another long season.
  • Adam Pardy has answered the call of retirement, but not after first accomplishing his ultimate goal this season. Pardy, 35, led his hometown Newfoundland Growlers to the ECHL’s Kelly Cup Championship in their inaugural season and now, The Telegram reports, he can ride off into the sunset. Pardy, while technically a free agent, has not been on an NHL contract in two years. He did play in 342 NHL games with five different teams over his long and winding career path though, last suiting up for four games with the Nashville Predators in 2016-17. After a year abroad in Sweden, he returned home to Newfoundland for an opportunity he couldn’t pass up with a pro team in his home province. Pardy recorded a career-best 21 points in 41 games and played a key role in a deep playoff run en route to a meaningful championship.

Latest On Jeff Skinner

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The biggest question of the Buffalo Sabres offseason, at least now that the head coaching vacancy has been filled, is whether or not GM Jason Botterill can get Jeff Skinner under contract. The star forward is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and would be one of the very best available players on the open market. Buffalo has maintained since they acquired him last year that they want to re-sign Skinner long-term, but to this point nothing has been set in stone. That might be changing soon, as Bob McKenzie said on NBC Sports last night that the two sides are getting closer:

The sense seems to be that there’s optimism, but not to the point where either side is entirely comfortable with the numbers that they’re exchanging. I do expect that there is likely to be more dialogue between Skinner’s [representatives] and the Buffalo Sabres. For quite some time now I’ve been saying that I think the sweet spot for a number is an eight-year deal somewhere between $8.5MM per year and $9.5MM per year. 

Buffalo certainly wants him back, and Skinner would like to come back but they’ve just got to get the final massaging of the numbers to the point where both sides are happy. So it’s very close, but it’s not done. And until it’s done, it’s not done.

Skinner of course is coming off the best season of his career, scoring 40 goals and 63 points for the Sabres while finding instant chemistry with Jack Eichel. There is every reason in the world for the Sabres to want to retain Skinner, given how they’ve watched talented players like Ryan O’Reilly and Evander Kane sent packing in recent years but still haven’t found much success on the ice. Buffalo needs to start keeping their talent around if they ever want to stop the perpetual rebuild they’ve found themselves in for so long.

Still, an eight-year deal for any player comes with plenty of risk. While Skinner is one of the youngest free agents on the market, he also is a relatively one-dimensional player that doesn’t provide much if his goal scoring ability ever dries up. That has led to underwhelming seasons in the past, including his final one in Carolina in which he scored just 49 points in 82 games and ended up in a trade north. He only turned 27 a few weeks ago, but those 40 goals came on a likely unsustainable 14.9% shooting percentage. If that drops his career average of 11.2%, a $9MM+ contract might be a bit tougher to swallow.

East Notes: Burakovsky, Skinner, Lee

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Washington’s salary cap situation doesn’t leave them a lot of wiggle room to work with this summer.  Restricted free agent winger Andre Burakovsky is arguably their most intriguing player in need of a new contract.  His qualifying offer checks in at $3.25MM which is on the pricey side for a forward who has scored a dozen goals in each of the last three seasons but at the same time, he’s only 24 and has shown flashes of considerable upside.  Despite that, NBC Sports Washington’s J.J. Regan posits that their $1.15MM bonus overage from 2018-19 (bonuses for fellow RFA Jakub Vrana and UFA blueliner Brooks Orpik) could ultimately force Brian MacLellan to non-tender him next month.  It’s rare that a player with some track record of NHL success becomes available on the open market so if he was to become available, there would undoubtedly be considerable interest in him despite his struggles.

Elsewhere out East:

  • Contract talks between the Sabres and winger Jeff Skinner are expected to resume this week at the Draft Combine, reports Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (Twitter link). Talks between the two sides have gone back several months but they’ve yet to find an agreement just yet.  Complicating matters is that Skinner had a torrid start that saw him score 30 goals in his first 44 games.  However, he had just ten in 38 contests the rest of the way.  It’s plausible to think that Skinner will want to be paid for reaching the 40-goal mark while Buffalo GM Jason Botterill will be looking for a cheaper deal given his late struggles and concussion history.
  • With Brock Nelson now locked up for six more years, the Islanders will likely shift their focus to captain Anders Lee, notes Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post. There is mutual interest in getting a deal done but the issue continues to be the term of the deal.  The winger will turn 29 in July so a near max-term pact will certainly carry some risk; Cyrgalis suggests the Isles may not want to go more than four years.  However, he’s a big part of their attack and one of the top wingers on the open market so GM Lou Lamoriello will likely have to compromise and give him a longer-term contract to keep Lee in the fold.

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