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Red Wings’ Patrick Holway Transferring To Merrimack College

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At 22 years old, Detroit Red Wings’ 2015 sixth-round pick Patrick Holway has certainly taken the slow and steady approach to his development. However, after two strong seasons at the University of Maine, that plan changed when Holway stepped away from the program this year due to personal issues that forced him to move closer to his Boston-area home. Holway’s future had been a question mark ever since, but there is finally a next step on the horizon. The Providence Journal’s Mark Divver reports that Holway has committed to Merrimack College next season.

Divver adds that when exactly Holway will get started with the Warriors remains undecided. Generally, the NCAA requires a full year away from the game when transferring schools, especially within an athletic conference – like Holway moving from Maine to Hockey East rival Merrimack. This is why many collegiate players return to the USHL for a season after leaving a program, before jumping back into the college ranks. However, student-athletes may appeal the transfer rules and are frequently successful. Divver reports that Holway currently would not be eligible to suit up for Merrimack until this time next year, midway through the season. However, Holway will appeal to have his absence over the first half of this season count toward his transfer year, making him eligible to join the team next fall when the new season begins.

Either way, Merrimack will get a major boost from adding Holway, who still has two years of eligibility remaining. The 6’4″ blue liner plays a rugged style and can kill penalties and shut down opposing offenses. However, he also has more than a fair bit of finesse to his game and was a crucial piece of the Black Bears’ power play. Last season, Holway registered 19 points in 33 games to lead all Maine defensemen in per-game production. Talented in all three zones, Holway appeared to be trending toward being a capable pro player and the Red Wings hope that this gap year of sorts does not stymie that development. At this rate, Holway likely won’t be joining Detroit until the age of 24, but even as an older prospect should bring promise and could immediately step into a depth role for the organization if he continues to progress at Merrimack.

Is There A Market For Karl Alzner?

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It’s been a brutal 17 months for Montreal Canadiens defenseman Karl Alzner. Well, the first few months after Alzner signed a five-year, $23.125MM contract on July 1st, 2017 were probably okay. Once he actually took the ice with the Habs last season though, it was all downhill. Alzner had capitalized on a weak free agent market – one in which even we here at PHR considered him the third best name – which had inflated his value far beyond what it should have been. Alzner was a solid defenseman for many years for the Washington Capitals, consistently healthy and capable of eating significant minutes. However, he lacked much in the way of offense and in retrospect his defensive abilities were amplified by the copious talent around him on the eventual Stanley Cup champions. Transitioning to a weaker roster in Montreal, Alzner was exposed when asked to play a key role on the Habs’ blue line. Carrying the puck more often, Alzer became a turnover machine. Facing tougher assignments, he was far less effective on defense and took a career high in penalties. And per usual, he contributed just twelve points and was a non-factor on offense.

Entering this season, Alzner and Canadiens fans alike hoped that he could turn it around and return to the shutdown player they felt they had signed for top dollar. However, the organization and coaching staff had other plans. Alzner was a healthy scratch in season opener and to date has only played in eight games with a major drop-off in ice time. Alzner was placed on waivers and subsequently cleared earlier this week and it was fair to wonder whether he had played his last game in Montreal just over a season into his five-year deal. That became much more probable yesterday, when the Canadiens gave Alzner and his agent permission to seek a trade.

Yet, permission to seek a trade is not the same as having concrete interest and willing suitors. Although the Habs have little reason not to accept any deal brought to them – barring an unreasonable amount of retained salary requested – that is just one side of a trade which obviously needs multiple teams. But is there even a market for Alzner? Two years ago, there was ample interest in him on the free agent market, but after a year in which he was exposed as having a game dependent on the talent of the players around him, he’s no longer the prize he once was. Then there’s also the matter of his contract, a relative albatross of four more years at $4.65MM. His stock is the lowest it has ever been, while his price is at it’s highest. That’s a tough combination to sell to a team. Alzner went untouched on waivers, meaning any team interested in acquiring him would also expect the Canadiens to retain some salary or otherwise add another piece to the deal.

Clearly, Alzner is not a player that can do much to help a rebuilding team. His cost also makes him a difficult addition for any team close to the salary cap ceiling. This leaves a narrow group of potential suitors who have talented rosters but are in comfortable salary cap shape and have a long-term need for a defensive blue liner. Any come to mind? It’s not a common occurrence, at least not currently. The Toronto Maple Leafs, although dealing with the William Nylander saga and long-term salary cap planning as is, would make some sense. The team is likely to lose Ron Hainsey and Jake Gardiner to free agency this summer and could use a long-term physical presence on the blue line at the right price. Their preference would certainly be to add a right-handed defenseman, but might not be picky if they feel Alzner would excel in their system. Barry Trotz’ new uber-conservative New York Islanders could also be a fit for Alzner, as they could stand to upgrade their blue line depth and have the existing talent to ease Alzner into his natural stay-at-home role. Alzner would seem to be a perfect fit for the Isles’ current system that emphasizes physicality and patient pace. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild have fallen short of the ultimate goal despite strong recent campaigns and have the cap space to add a luxury piece like Alzner, who would be a bottom-pair defender for either team, albeit a needed depth addition. Finally, there are the Chicago Blackhawks who, despite shedding salary this summer, refrained from using their newfound cap space. Chicago had interest in Alzner when he was a free agent in 2017, considered by many the favorite to land the physical defender. The team could still use more talent and especially more shutdown play on the back end. However, with one of hockey’s worst contracts in Brent Seabrook already on the roster, could they really risk adding a similarly disappointing and overpaid defenseman in Alzner?

Those are just five teams who could potentially have interest in Alzner. There could be more, if some teams feel that Alzner’s play in Montreal has been a misrepresentation of his ability. Yet, there also could easily be less, as Alzner has done nothing in the past year plus to prove that he is anything more than a replacement level checking defenseman. Given his contract status, Alzner may find it difficult to match up with a new team and put together a successful trade out of Montreal. It is certainly a possibility, but the only team Alzner is likely going to be playing for in the near future is the AHL’s Laval Rocket.

Metropolitan Notes: Buchnevich, Nieves, Murray, Rask, Pickard

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After sitting in the press box for the last two games of their road trip, New York Rangers forward Pavel Buchnevich is expected to be in Sunday’s lineup against the Sabres. This is just another example of the coaching demeanor of David Quinn who isn’t hesitant to make clear what he demands from his players, both physically and mentally. Regardless, Quinn expects Buchnevich to respond in only one way about the scratches.

“I hope he’s pissed, and I think he is,” Quinn said after Saturday’s practice up in Westchester (via the New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis). “I want everybody to be pissed when they don’t play. Now do something about it.”

Buchnevich so far has kept his feelings about his benching quiet and prefers to keep his conversations with Quinn to himself. However, the general belief is that Quinn needs to see more consistency from Buchnevich, who has scored points in five games, but has also disappeared in the other five games this season. Quinn can only hope that Buchnevich is ready to buy in.

  • Staying with the Rangers, Newsday’s Anthony Rieber writes that forward Boo Nieves practiced with the team after suffering a concussion that he sustained in the preseason opener on Sept. 17. Nieves practiced with the Hartford Wolf Pack while the team was on their four-game road trip. While there is no timetable for the 24-year-old to be activated off of injured reserve, the 6-foot-3, 203-pounder is getting closer to providing the team with a big body in their lineup. Nieves played 28 games for the Rangers last year, putting up a goal and eight assists.
  • Josh Yohe of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Matt Murray is getting tired of being hit during games. The 24-year-old has been hit incidentally with no penalties being called all season, including it happening three times on Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs. With three concussions in his young career, this new trend is alarming to the goalie. “I’m out there to stop the puck,” Murray said. “That’s got to be my main focus. If I have to do take a hit to do so, it is what it is. I hope that the refs will do something.”
  • In a Q&A with Carolina Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell, NHL.com’s Michael Smith learned that the team is expecting to get back winger Victor Rask in the first week of December. Rask injured his hand while slicing food in his kitchen and underwent hand surgery during the preseason and was listed as out indefinitely. Waddell said the team met with team doctors at the last home game who confirmed that week was viable.
  • The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor (subscription required) writes that Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Calvin Pickard may have lost the game Saturday on two late goals by the San Jose Sharks, but the scribe writes that Pickard actually played a solid game and didn’t deserve to take the loss. The third-string goalie was called into action when injury-prone Michal Neuvirth returned to Philadelphia with an undisclosed injury. Despite struggling playing the puck on numerous occasions, the 26-year-old did play well in the net as two of the goals by Timo Meier and Joe Pavelski were unstoppable.

New Jersey Devils, RFA Miles Wood “Aren’t Talking”

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While the majority of restricted free agents this odd-season have been re-signed to new contracts, the outlook is not good for the handful of players that remain unsigned. The past week has revealed that the Toronto Maple Leafs’ William Nylander, the Anaheim Ducks’ Nick Ritchie, and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Shea Theodore are all far from a contract resolution with their respective teams. Add another to the list, as Devils beat writer Todd Cordell reports that New Jersey and RFA forward Miles Wood “aren’t talking” right now and appear far from agreeing to a new contract.

In fact, Cordell states that no progress has been made recently between the two sides and as of now no further talks are scheduled. It is a bleak outlook for both the team and player, especially since there is mutual interest in coming together on a deal. NJ.com’s Chris Ryan recently wrote that Wood was eager to get to camp and hoped for a resolution soon. However, in speaking with agent Peter Fish, Ryan echoes Cordell’s point that Fish and GM Ray Shero had not talked in some time. Even Cordell himself noted earlier this month that he expected a bridge deal between Wood and the Devils to be inked before camp, but that has not come to fruition.

If term isn’t the issue, then it is simply a disagreement on valuation that is holding up an extension. Wood, 23, set career-highs as a sophomore for the Devils last season. The big left winger out of Boston College recorded 19 goals and 32 points last year, nearly doubling up his rookie production in just 16 more games. Wood has certainly shown the potential to be a perennial 20-goal scorer and weapon on the power play. Yet, Wood has struggled to gain more responsibility under head coach John Hynes. Wood is not a particularly strong defensive forward and has mediocre possession statistics, not to mention a knack for taking detrimental penalties, indicating that he might just be a one-dimensional goal-scorer. His ice time would reflect that thought, as he saw fewer minutes last season than as a rookie at 12:28. This was the second-lowest average ice time of any regular New Jersey skater, with only Jimmy Hayes coming in behind him. As such, while the production looks good – fourth in goals, sixth in points in  2017-18 – and may continue to climb, the team may not see that translating into a larger role worth a larger salary. Therein lies that valuation issue that could keep Wood away from the Devils for a little while longer.

College Notes: Meyer, Fensore, Rule Changes

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Carson Meyer’s luck has finally turned. The Ohio native and Columbus Blue Jackets draft pick was hoping to make it the Buckeye State trifecta by transferring to Ohio State for his junior year collegiate season. Meyer struggled this past season at Miami University, fighting health issues and fatigue to record only ten points despite reaching 26 as a freshman and 51 in his final junior season in the USHL. Meyer later discovered that the “sickness” impacting his play was actually a 25-inch tapeworm. Wanting to put that experience past him, Meyer transferred to OSU only to be told that he would likely have to sit for a year due to NCAA transfer rules. However, the university has announced that the NCAA has approved their submitted waiver for Meyer to participate immediately this year. Now back at full health and joining a team that reached the Frozen Four last year, the quick winger could be in store for a breakout campaign.

  • Boston University has received a commitment from U.S. National Development Team defenseman Dominick Fensore, beginning in the 2019-20 season.  The young rearguard took to Twitter to announce the decision himself. While Fensore clearly has enough talent to play in the exclusive development program, he brings the undersized defensemen trend to a new level. The 16-year-old stands 5’6″ and is listed at just 141 pounds. While the teenage blue liner surely has more growing to do, that is incredibly small for any hockey player, never the less a defenseman. Luckily, BU has excelled in recent years with developing smaller defensemen, such as the Boston Bruins’ Matt Grzelcyk and current NHL prospects Chad Krys (CHI) and David Farrance (NSH). After another year with the USNTDP, playing alongside top 2019 defensive prospect and future Boston College rival Cam York, Fensore should be ready to join the Terriers and make an impact at the college level.
  • The rules for overtime in the NCAA will be a bit different going forward and how different they are will depend on the conference. The NCAA approved a proposal this week that gives each conference autonomy in deciding how best to handle overtime out of three options. If the score is tied after regulation, there will continue to be a mandatory five-minute, five-on-five overtime. After that, the new rule allows for a) the game to end in a tie, b) a shootout, or c) a five-minute, three-on-three overtime followed by a shootout. Non-conference games and postseason games will continue to use their previous overtime formats. Another new rule also provides each time with an additional timeout if the game goes to overtime. Other approved rule changes include using video replay to review ejection-worthy penalties, new definitions for slashing and legal substitution, and – perhaps most interesting – allowing teams to dress 19 players rather than the typical 18 players for each game.

The Salary Cap Implications Of A Shea Weber Early Retirement

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When Shea Weber signed a 14-year, $110MM offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012, everyone knew right away that it would end badly. Yes, Weber was 27 years old and one of the top defensemen in the league, but the contract was top-heavy and carried a $7.86MM cap hit through his age-40 season. The chances of him playing to a level matching that value over a full 14 years was very slim. The Flyers knew this and specifically structured it in a way that they hoped would scare the Nashville Predators and frugal GM David Poile away – it didn’t. The Predators had just watched Ryan Suter walk in free agency and couldn’t afford to let Weber leave as well. They matched the deal and held on to their superstar defenseman.

When Weber was then traded to the Montreal Canadiens for P.K. Subban in 2016, the risk in Weber’s contract increased exponentially. The league had since banned all similarly long-term contracts – setting a limit of seven years on the open market and eight years for an extension –  nevertheless the front-loaded, cap-circumventing type that Weber had signed. To combat teams continuing to front-load contracts, the NHL implemented salary cap recapture penalties. This system punishes teams for lengthening contracts with low-salary seasons in order to lower the cap hit during prime years by issuing a salary cap charge if the player retires prior to the end of the contract, thereby negating the years that lowered his cap hit. The calculation is the difference in total salary and total cap hit over the course of the contract with which the player played with the team, divided by the number of years remaining on the contract after retirement. In Weber’s case, the scenario looks like this:

Year           Team           Cap Hit           Salary           Difference
2012-13        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2013-14        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2014-15        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2015-16        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2016-17        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2017-18        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2018-19        MTL             $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2019-20       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2020-21       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2021-22       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2022-23       MTL*           $7.857MM        $3MM          -$4.857MM
2023-24       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2024-25       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2025-26       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM

So far over the course of Weber’s contract, both Nashville and Montreal have paid him far beyond what his cap hit would suggest. If Weber was to retire today, they would both be penalized. Nashville’s total penalty is $24.572MM, while Montreal’s is fluid. However, next season marks a drop for Weber below his cap number for the remaining eight years of his contract. Now, Weber is not going to retire this off-season. However, the chances that he retires early are very high. Earlier this week, it was reported that Weber had undergone a second off-season surgery and would likely be out until mid-season. Many expected when Weber was traded to Montreal that he still had many years left of strong play in him, but it appears that the deterioration of his body has already begun. Facing a decreasing salary for the remainder of his contract and concerns about his long-term health, it would be no surprise to see Weber retire in the next two years or so nevertheless by the end of the remaining eight years. By year, here is how the penalties would play out for both Nashville and Montreal:

If Weber retires before:      Penalty per year – NSH         Penalty per year – MTL
2019-20                                          $3.51MM                                              $918K
2020-21                                          $4.1MM                                                $762K
2021-22                                          $4.91MM                                              $543K
2022-23                                          $6.14MM                                             $215K
2023-24                                           $8.19MM                                             None
2024-25                                           $12.29MM                                           None
2025-26                                           $24.57MM                                           None

Obviously, the Predators have a lot to lose if Weber retires early. It is very unlikely that Weber, if he makes it that far, is likely to retire with one or even two years left on his contract. At that point, it is likely the Canadiens would just place him on long-term injured reserve to finish his career, as has become a growing trend in the NHL. However, if Weber is unable to get over the injuries that have plagued him in Montreal, could he call it quits within the next few years and stick Nashville with a $3.5-$5MM yearly penalty? Absolutely. It is a scary possibility for the Predators and a situation worth watching as Weber battles back from injury yet again next season and beyond.

All salary and cap figures are approximations. Data courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

NHL Warns Marchand, Bruins About Licking Players

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The NHL’s vice president of hockey operations Colin Campbell spoke to both the Boston Bruins general manager Don Sweeney and Brad Marchand today, warning the veteran forward that his actions of licking players is unacceptable and another incident like that will result in supplementary discipline, according to the NHL.

Marchand, who has been accused for licking a player for the second time in the Stanley Cup playoffs this year, was seen checking Tampa Bay’s Ryan Callahan into the boards and when Callahan shoved back, Marchand responded by licking him. He was accused of the same thing in the first round of the playoffs during Game 1 by the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Leo Komarov. Marchand was not penalized for either incident, but the league is stepping in now.

According to Rule 75.4 (iii), “Any player who persists in any course of conduct designed to incite an opponent into incurring a penalty,” which means the league could start handing out 10-minute misconduct penalties immediately for any similar actions, according to TSN’s Frank Seravalli.

“There’s absolutely no place in this game for that,” Tampa Bay head coach Jon Cooper said (via Joe Smith). “I don’t understand it.”

Even Boston coach Bruce Cassidy said Marchand needs to stop.

“Brad has to stop licking. That’s the end of the story,” said Cassidy (via Chris Johnston).

NHL Announces Lady Byng Trophy Finalists

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The Lady Byng Memorial Trophy often doesn’t get the credit it deserves, but in 2018 the high-profile nominees should turn some heads. The three finalists, as voted by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association, were announced by the league tonight as the Florida Panthers’ Aleksander Barkov, the Vegas Golden Knights’ William Karlsson, and the Buffalo Sabres’ Ryan O’Reilly. Whoever of the three is judged to have “exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability” will take home the hardware at the NHL Awards in June.

In many ways, this Lady Byng race is almost a runner-up competition to the Selke Trophy. All three of Barkov, Karlsson, and O’Reilly could have been a finalist for the best defensive player award this season. Barkov is a two-way wizard, Karlsson led the NHL in plus/minus, and O’Reilly continues to be one of the best face-off specialists of his generation. There was no lack of offense either, as Barkov and Karlsson each set career-highs with 78 points, while O’Reilly notched his fifth-straight season of 55+ points. However, they all have shown an adept ability to avoid penalties as well – a major criteria for the Lady Byng. O’Reilly in particular was a shockingly clean competitor in 2017-18, taking just one two-minute minor penalty in 81 games for an average of just one second worth of penalty minutes per game. This was far and away the most impressive mark on the year. Karlsson played in all 82 games, accumulating only six minor penalties for 12 PIM. Barkov was guilty of just seven minors, a total of 14 minutes in the box, all season.

The gentlemanly conduct is apparent among the finalists, as is the high standard of ability at both ends of the rink. All three played nearly game this season as well, showing the most important ability of all – availability. So what could decide the race? Sportsmanship, which is where O’Reilly’s recent remarks could hurt him. The Sabres center recently went on record as saying that he has lost his love for the game while playing in Buffalo. Compare that attitude to those of Karlsson, arguably the best skater on the team who has been the biggest story in hockey in their inaugural season, and Barkov, who has grown into a leader in Florida and led his team to an unlikely late-season surge, and you can see how O’Reilly could lose some votes. We’ll know for sure how it turns out at the NHL Awards on June 20th in Karlsson’s new home town.

Snapshots: Coaching Changes, Marchand Fine, McDonagh Debut

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Buried in the news of Ron Francis being replaced as GM of the Carolina Hurricanes was the fact that it was the first major personnel decision of the 2017-18 season. It’s March, well beyond the three-quarter mark of the season, and there has been just one general manager fired (but promoted) and still no coaches. It’s rare to see so much inactivity, but it can likely be linked to the fact that the league’s worst teams – Arizona, Buffalo, Ottawa, Vancouver, and Montreal – all have first- or second-year coaches: Rick Tocchet, Phil Housley, Guy Boucher, Travis Green, and Claude Julien respectively. Unsurprisingly, USA Today’s Kevin Allen lists the head coaches of four of the next five worst teams as being on the hot seat as the end of the season approaches. That includes the Edmonton Oilers’ Todd McLellan, the Detroit Red Wings’ Jeff Blashill, the New York Rangers’ Alain Vigneault, the Chicago Blackhawks’ Joel Quenneville, and the Carolina Hurricanes’ Bill Peters. The most obvious inclusion on this list is Peters, who has an owner looking to make changes and soon a new GM, and has also struggled to get the most out of his talented roster. Quenneville would be the biggest news, should he be removed, as the longest-tenured coach in the NHL, since 2008, and a three-time Stanley Cup champion. The last name on the list who doesn’t quite fit the pattern is the Washington Capitals’ Barry Trotz. Trotz has yet to be offered a contract extension and his future could depend on the Caps’ playoff success this season. However, as Allen states, Trotz would be the prime coaching candidate this summer if he isn’t retained by Washington. As of right now, all of these coaches are safe, but things could change quickly with the season coming to a close. In the meantime, if you would like to apply for the open Hurricanes GM position, here you go.

  • One thing that there has been plenty of in the league this season has been punishment handed down by the NHL Department of Player Safety, as the league has focused on cracking down on certain penalties. A player who has gained plenty of attention, fair or not, has been Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand. Marchand has finally spoken out after his most recent hit, a $2,000 fine for diving. Marchand spoke to the media, saying things like “it’s a small amount of money”, “it’s a joke”, “it’s pretty stupid” and “I don’t care about this.” He did go a step further though, adding “how are they (Player Safety) to tell …they go from being players to management and running the league pretty quickly and forget how to play the game.” While Marchand doesn’t seem to care much about a very minor fine, he is making a point that any fine for diving, the most subjective call in the game, is somewhat unreasonable, especially when the call comes from those who were not even present at the game.
  • While the Bruins are continuing to win behind three straight game-winners from Marchand, their rivals in the Atlantic Division and the President’s Trophy race, the Tampa Bay Lightning, continue to win as well. They’ll get even better starting tonight, as their huge trade deadline acquisition, Ryan McDonagh, is set to make his debut with the team tonight against the Montreal Canadiens. Head coach Jon Cooper told beat writer Bryan Burns that McDonagh is ready to go, after dealing with an upper-body injury for more than a month. McDonagh’s addition to the Bolts blue line makes them a scary team for anyone to go up against and that includes the Bruins, who play Tampa three more times this season and could very well meet them in the second round of the playoffs.

Super Bowl Preview: NHL Edition

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In the biggest sporting event of the year tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Patriots are five-time Super Bowl winners, including two of the past three, while the Eagles are looking for their first ever title in the Super Bowl era. The teams and their histories could not be more different. The same cannot be said for their NHL counterparts, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers, who have been rivals from as far back as when they were called the Boston Patriots in the AFL. So, while everyone else debates the ins and outs of the big game tomorrow, let’s take a look at the likely winner through the lens of the Pats’ and Eagles’ hockey-playing neighbors:

Scoring Offense – Advantage: Boston

When it comes to scoring, the Bruins are as dangerous as the Patriots. Boston has 160 goals for on the year, 8th in the league, but in only 49 games, giving them the 5th-best 3.27 goals per game rate. Led by Brad Marchand, who’s scoring .55 goals per game on his own this season, and his line mates Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, who make up the league’s most dangerous line, the Bruins have great offensive potential. The Flyers meanwhile are just 18th in the league in scoring, with 147 goals, and putting up only 2.88 goals per game. However, Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux are the two highest scoring players in the match-up, so don’t underestimate Philadelphia’s offensive potential.

Scoring Defense – Advantage: Boston

There’s no better team in the league at preventing goals than the Bruins, who are number one in goals against (120) and goals against per game (2.45). With Tuukka Rask playing Vezina-level hockey and Marchand, Bergeron, and 40-year-old Zdeno Chara (channeling his inner Tom Brady) among the top ten in the league in plus/minus, the Bruins are a force to reckon with on defense. The Flyers have struggled on defense in 2017-18, allowing 150 goals, tied for 19th in goals against. While the defense has been leaky at times, much of the fault lies with the underwhelming goalie duo of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth. 

Passing Offense – Advantage: Boston

Passing will be a vital factor in the big game, and the Bruins hold a slight edge. The Bruins have 271 assists on the year compared to the Flyers’ 264. While Voracek is undoubtedly the best passer in the contest, with 50 assists already on the year, Boston’s overall puck movement game is superior, due in no small part to sleek passers on the blue line in Charlie McAvoy and Torey Krug, and several of the best possession players in the league, including the top Corsi player so far in 2017-18, rookie rearguard Matt Grzelcyk. 

Turnovers – Advantage: Boston

Turnovers can make or break a game and while both teams are in the red in turnover margin, the totals are not even close. The Bruins have recorded 442 takeaways so far this season, among the best in the league. However, they do give up the puck a fair amount with 465 recorded giveaways, producing a turnover margin of -23. Fortunately for Boston, the Flyers have given up the puck 462 times themselves, but have had no luck at all in taking it back, with only 302 recorded takeaways. That produces an ugly turnover margin of -160 and another big advantage for Boston.

Special Teams – Advantage: Boston

The Bruins’ 7th-ranked power play (21.71%) and 5th-ranked penalty kill (83.33%) make them one of, if not the best special teams squad in the NHL. They capitalize on the opposition’s penalties, but don’t let their own penalties cost them. That will be especially helpful against Philadelphia, who takes fewer penalties per game than Boston and is just behind the B’s in power play efficiency; their 21.39% success rate is good enough for 8th. However, Philly has struggled greatly short-handed, with the league’s third-worst penalty kill (73.89%).

Super Bowl Prediction: New England in a landslide

It’s been a few years since the Bruins were playing at a level anywhere near the dynastic Patriots, but in 2017-18 they are right there. Compared to the Flyers in all the important (and possible to compare) football statistics, it’s not even close. If the Patriots channel the Bruins, they should roll over the Eagles like they’ve rolled over the NFL for close to 20 years. One final note: the Pats have struggled to score early and have had to come from behind in each of their last two Super Bowl wins and even their AFC Championship win two weeks ago – the Bruins have the second-best points percentage in the NHL this season when allowing the first goal. It all lines up.

 

 

 

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