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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $69,375,832 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alex Tuch (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Shea Theodore (One year remaining, $863K)

Potential Bonuses

Tuch: $425K

While the brand-new franchise is focused on building up a powerhouse team over the next five years, which means draft picks and more draft picks, which will create a revolving door at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, there should be at least one constant who is already locked in for the future in Theodore. The just-turned 22-year-old is considered to be a long-term piece and despite the team’s overwhelming defensive logjam, the hope is Theodore is on the team’s opening day roster. Theodore shined last year during Anaheim’s playoff run when he along with several other defenseman had to step in for injured players and fared well. Theodore, a offensive defenseman, was a first-round pick of the Ducks in 2013 and despite having just nine points in 39 regular season games last year, he put up eight goals in 14 playoff games.

Tuch, a talented forward acquired near the expansion draft in a side deal with the Minnesota Wild, has a chance to immediately make the team out of training camp. The 21-year-old wing was a first-round pick in 2014 and scored 18 goals for the AHL’s Iowa Wild last year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F James Neal ($5MM, UFA)
F Mikhail Grabovski ($5MM, UFA)
D Jason Garrison ($4.6MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($3.75MM, UFA)
D Luca Sbisa ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Clayton Stoner ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.14MM, RFA)
F William Karlsson ($1MM, RFA)
D Colin Miller ($1MM, RFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($1MM, UFA)
G Calvin Pickard ($1MM, RFA)
F Jon Marchessault ($750K, UFA)
F Teemu Pulkkinen ($700K, RFA)

The Golden Knights will be looking to move as many of their players at the trade deadline as they can. Neal should be their biggest trade bait as many teams wouldn’t mind adding a goal-scorer right in time for the playoffs. The 30-year-old wing is coming off a 23-goal season in Nashville and has scored 165 goals in the last six seasons combined. The team hopes that playing on a top line should keep his scoring numbers up high so that his price increases at the perfect time, but a recent report that a wrist injury suffered during the playoffs last year is still affecting Neal and he will miss two to four weeks is concerning. The team also has high hopes it can move Perron. After putting up a career-high 28 goals in 2013-14, he has struggled with injuries but rebounded last year with an 18 goal season. If he can stay healthy and produce similar numbers, he might be worth a mid to late pick.

One key decision the team will have to make is what to do with Marchessault, who is coming off a 30-goal season a year ago in Florida. At $750K, he is a bargain for the next year, but if he can duplicate his numbers from last year, he would be in line for a big payday. Complicating the situation is that Vegas head coach Gerard Gallant is a big fan of the 26-year-old and was the head coach in Florida wlast year when Marchessault started his breakout season.

The team also has a number of restricted free agents who they will likely hold onto. While Pickard’s name is rarely mentioned in Vegas as he is the current backup, don’t be surprised if Pickard is penciled in as the goaltender of the future. The 25-year-old struggled with Colorado last year (although he did have one of the worst teams around him), but was a promising prospect before that. Miller is another who should be retained. The 24-year-old was a promising defender in Boston who was just beginning to get full-time work. He got into 61 games last year and showed quite a bit of promise. Karlsson should get a bottom line spot in the lineup. The 24-year-old is coming off a 25-point season and the team hopes he takes his game up a notch.

While Grabovski likely won’t see the ice ever in Las Vegas (freeing the team of his $5MM cap hit), Garrison is a defender who may prove to have some value if he can produce on one of the team’s top defensive lines. The 32-year-old struggled at times in Tampa Bay and his offensive numbers have declined in the past couple of years. McNabb is considered to be an excellent defender and should provide solid defense for Vegas. He missed a lot of time due to a broken collarbone injury he suffered last October, forcing the 26-year-old in and out of the lineup all season and he eventually lost his starting job at the end of the year, but should get regular minutes with the Golden Knights. Sbisa is another player who should get playing time in hopes the team can move him later this year. The 27-year-old blueliner was a solid defenseman, but few teams were interested in his $3.6MM pricetag.

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Vegas Not Worried About Having Too Much Defense

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To some observers, the Vegas Golden Knights have some problems. The team has 13 defensemen on their roster, 11 with NHL experience. Yet, general manager George McPhee is not worried about the glut of defenders on his roster. While the coaches get a say, it will be McPhee who will make the final decision on who plays.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen writes that the team will likely keep eight defenders on their 23-man roster, so that should give defenseman a bit of comfort room. He also writes that it looks like nine players will compete for those eight spots. Three veterans will undoubtedly make the roster in Jason Garrison, Deryk Engelland and Luca Sbisa. Expect Brayden McNabb, the physical defender from the Los Angeles Kings to get a spot on the defensive roster as well as Nate Schmidt, who just signed a new two-year deal for $4.45MM. That’s five. Colin Miller, who led the Boston Bruins in Corsi For and Goals For percentage last season, should also be in the top six.

That leaves a still a number of defensemen who will be fighting for those last two spots.

“Our defensemen can count. They know there are a lot of D here right now,” McPhee said. “We’ll just have to see how camp goes and how we proceed. To be fair, you’d like to say it’s going to be the best six guys, but we’ll see. Sometimes you have to think short term and long term in this job and do what’s best for the organization from that standpoint.”

That quote might suggest that former Anaheim Ducks’ Shea Theodore, who the team picked up in an expansion deal, might be forced to start the season for the AHL Chicago Wolves as he still has waiver options remaining. Theodore, who had a major impact for the Ducks’ defense in the playoffs last year is still just 22 years old and only has 53 games of NHL experience so far, not including the playoffs. He put up just nine points in 34 games last year, but put up eight points in 14 playoff games in an expanded role. Others who will have to fight for spot include Jon Merrill, Clayton Stoner, Griffin Reinhart and Brad Hunt.

Schoen speculates that Merrill is likely to stay with the team, which could leave Stoner out. The team picked up Stoner with Theodore in part of an expansion trade deal. The Anaheim Ducks wanted to rid themselves of Stoner’s $3.25MM contract, but the 32-year-old injury plagued defender has not played since early last season and played in just 14 games last year.

Of course, none of this speculation makes any difference if the team can make a deal. The Golden Knights, who have already traded off several defensemen since the expansion draft, could be waiting for training camps to start. They may be hoping that an injury or a lack of depth could prompt a team to trade for one of their glut of defensemen. However, for now, McPhee continues to state that he is happy to have so much depth on their blueline.

“The neat thing about this process, and I’ve tried to explain this to a number of people, it’s still a blank canvas,” McPhee said. “We’re completely open minded about what might develop. I’m open for some unknown surprises. It’s wide open, and it should be.”

Vegas Notes: Marchessault, Neal, Perron, Sbisa

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While it’s almost impossible to guess what the Vegas Golden Knight’s roster may look like from year-to-year for the forseeable future as general manager George McPhee has made it clear that trading for draft picks is his first and foremost goal, there are some who see trends already and, according to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox, don’t be surprised at all if forward Jon Marchessault is re-signed to a long-term deal next year.

Fox did a podcast with Las Vegas Review-Journal hockey writer Steve Carp  (podcast on website), who says that Marchessault’s familiarity with former Florida Panthers’ head coach Gerard Gallant will make him want to stay in Vegas. The 26-year-old center will be joining his fourth team and has had his ups and downs after going undrafted early in his career. Before his 30-goal breakout season last year, he had only played in 49 career NHL games. He credits some of his success to Gallant, who was his head coach before being dismissed during the season. However, now that they are reunited in Las Vegas, he may look to stay where he is wanted.

  • Carp also says that the two most valuable trade chips at next year’s trade deadline will be James Neal and David Perron. While Neal’s name comes as no surprise after putting up 54 goals in the past two years, Perron’s value is unknown. The 29-year-old wing is far from his 28-goal season back in 2013-14, but did manage to play a full season last year in St. Louis and put up 18 goals. The belief is that McPhee is hoping to get second-round picks for each player, although Carp says he probably would be willing to accept a third-rounder, if needed. The Golden Knights whose emphasis is on receiving picks between the first and third round need help for next year’s draft. After having six picks in this year’s draft (including three first-rounders), Vegas has just two for 2018, yet seven in 2019 and five picks in the first three rounds in 2020. They hope the trade deadline will net them those 2018 picks.
  • Carp adds that one other issue with having 11 defenders currently on their roster is that nine of them are left-handed. Of all the defensemen on the roster, Carp says that McPhee wants to move Luca Sbisa, who has one year left on his deal, but at $3.6MM. “He’s 27 but he’s got a lot of money [owed to him],” Carp said. “I’m not sure if George didn’t overplay his hand a little bit in taking all these defencemen thinking he could flip ’em quickly for picks.”
  • Neal is also the likely candidate to become team captain, according to Carp. While Vegas has played up Marc-Andre Fleury as the face of the franchise, goaltenders are not permitted to be “on ice” captains.
  • Don’t expect the Golden Knights to sign one of the many veteran free agent forwards, according to Carp. A veteran does not fit in with the Golden Knight’s plans of developing youth or using veterans to trade for picks since no one seems to want players like Shane Doan or Jaromir Jagr now when they are available.

Vegas Golden Knights & Trade Deadline Capital

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As we look back at the recent NHL Expansion Draft, it seems as though the Vegas Golden Knights had a very clear plan. Three tenets seem to influence most if not all of their selections. Vegas Golden Knights

  1. Leverage your opportunity to gain draft picks and young players in exchange for taking a bad contract.
  2. If unwilling to deal, take players with some value and only one or two years remaining on their contract.
  3. If no players like that exist, take a pending free agent to avoid burdening your cap.

Though some may look at this and see an obvious strategy, it is amazing how closely the Golden Knights followed it. A quick look at their CapFriendly page and you can immediately see that they avoided players who were under contract long-term in the draft, as they currently have 16 players that will be unrestricted free agents either next summer or the year after that. Their only long-term contracts are Reilly Smith, David Clarkson and Erik Haula—players they acquired in trade (the Wild gave them the chance to sign Haula)—and Cody Eakin, who is under contract for a third season.

That cap flexibility is paramount to the Golden Knights, as it was never about building through the expansion draft. Almost none of the assets gained through a direct selection should play much of an impact on the team long term, and because of it GM George McPhee will be holding court on another transaction season next year. The trade deadline should be hugely influenced by the Golden Knights, with a large number of assets on the market.

James Neal, David Perron and Jon Marchessault, arguably the three most prolific offensive weapons the Golden Knights selected in the draft are all UFAs next summer, and would each command a hefty price on the open market. Established goal scorers are moved each spring for big packages, and each of these three are no different.

Brayden McNabb and Luca Sbisa headline the pending UFAs on defense and could each fetch a solid return at the deadline, especially if given increased roles for Vegas. Even Jason Garrison could be of some interest if the team is willing to retain a portion of his already (at that point) prorated salary. Garrison will probably get some powerplay time with the Golden Knights to boost his value come the deadline.

Past the UFAs, the team also has several pending RFAs already in their mid-twenties. Colin Miller for example will turn 25 just after the season begins, and is three years away from unrestricted free agency. It’s unlikely that the team competes for a Stanley Cup while Miller remains a cheap option, meaning moving him in the next year could fetch the biggest return. As a puck-moving defensemen he should get plenty of opportunity to show off his offensive upside.

Though some players will be moved out before the season starts because of the simple fact they currently have too many, it’s not unlikely that the Golden Knights will be holding all the cards come February once again. They could easily have half a dozen players on any trade bait list, and add to the impressive number of draft picks they already own.

Odd Defenseman Out In Vegas

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Although some of this might be attributed to wishful thinking, the Edmonton Journal’s David Staples openly wonders whether Griffin Reinhart could find his way back to Edmonton. This comes only a day after Reinhart was signed to a reasonable $800,000 deal for two-years in Vegas. Staples wonders whether the excess of defense on the left side will force Vegas to place Reinhart on waivers in an attempt to send him to the AHL. He surmises, probably correctly, that GM Peter Chiarelli would take another gamble on the player if it were to get that far. It seems incredibly unlikely he would make it to Edmonton’s position in the waiver wire, however, as many worse franchises would likely place a claim. It’s even less likely that Vegas management would risk losing that sort of asset for nothing in the first place.

Reinhart is unlikely to make an Edmonton return, but it’s not totally inconceivable that he’d be the odd man out in Vegas. The team went heavy on defense in the expansion draft, and odds are that they will eventually lose someone to the waiver wire if they can’t maneuver more moves. Once Nate Schmidt is signed, they’ll have 11 defensemen on the NHL roster, and that’s if Erik Brannstrom doesn’t make the big squad. Even assuming the Golden Knights can trade two more players, they’re not likely to carry more than 8 defensemen. Someone will be sacrificed to waivers unless GM George McPhee can pull some magic before the start of the season.

The most aged players include Jason Garrison (32), who has a no-trade clause, Deryk Engelland (35), Luca Sbisa (27), and Clayton Stoner (32). Brayden McNabb, Colin Miller, Schmidt, and Shea Theodore will likely constitute the team’s future defense, and it might be difficult for Reinhart to crack that group. Brad Hunt and Jon Merrill are the least likely to attract any major attention if they were to be waived, so there is no necessity to start floundering yet. Hunt in particular would pass with almost no difficulty, as the 5’9, 28-year old defender hasn’t been overly impressive in his 33 career NHL games. Still, depending on who else is moved and whether Reinhart makes an impact at training camp, he could be seen as a non-core piece. McPhee will need to make a determination as to who will be getting major playing time, considering that at this moment things are far too crowded for the younger players to shine.

McNabb, Schmidt, and Miller seem the safest for the moment, but anything can happen. The right side has to be a concern, as only Engelland and Miller naturally play that position. As for now, we’ll have to wait and see who gets unloaded for picks and future assets, and whether they will be much difficulty in doing so. It seems unlikely that Vegas would move Reinhart, a young piece who they just re-signed, considering that if nothing else he can fill a 7th or 8th defensive position. Sbisa and Stoner seem to be the most likely to move out to a team starved for defensive depth, especially considering their contracts are each only good for one more season.

Offseason Keys: Vegas Golden Knights

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While expansion and the beginning of free agency were the early headlines in what will be a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months to come. Here is a closer look at what still lies ahead for the Vegas Golden Knights.

It has already been a very busy offseason for Vegas who have swung 17 trades already as well as building their team via the expansion draft.  Despite that, GM George McPhee still has some work to do before the puck drops on their inaugural season.  Here are some remaining keys to their offseason.

Finish Shaping The Defense

While McPhee has trimmed down the number of blueliners since the draft down to 10 (they drafted 13), that’s still too many to work with given that the maximum roster size is 23.  At least one if not two still need to be moved out before the season gets underway.

Luca SbisaThe player that many expected to be moved is Luca Sbisa.  He was a bit of a surprise pick from Vancouver given that he carries a cap hit of $3.6MM for one more year and doesn’t appear to be in their long-term plans.  On the surface, it would appear that he was picked with the idea of flipping him but the post-expansion trade market for blueliners hasn’t exactly been robust as teams appear to be waiting McPhee out.

It’s only mid-July so there’s still plenty of time but it will be interesting to see if other teams are able to outwait McPhee and pick up someone at a bargain or if the market will pick up as more free agents come off the open market.

Build Minor League Depth

Although the Golden Knights will employ a shared minor league affiliate (with St. Louis), they’re still the primary feeder for AHL Chicago.  As things stand, they have around 15 players that are likely earmarked for the Wolves.  Even with the Blues sending some players there, that’s still not enough, especially when you consider the expectation of injuries not to mention the anticipated trades in-season for the nine pending unrestricted free agents that they currently have.

Though many of the top two-way free agents off the market now, there are still enough of them out there for McPhee to add a few more to the fold.  Alternatively, they could pick those players up via trades for some of the blueliners they’re likely going to be trading over the next couple of months.  It’s not a pressing need but they would be wise to set themselves up with more depth before the season gets underway.

Rent Their Space

As a result of dealing away players like Marc Methot and Alexei Emelin after the Expansion Draft plus the acquisition of LTIR-eligible David Clarkson and Mikhail Grabovski, Vegas will have plenty of wiggle room when it comes to the salary cap – about $8.6MM per CapFriendly as things currently stand.  The big names are pretty much gone in free agency but there are certainly teams that are still looking to free up cap space and the Golden Knights could conceivably swing another move or two to add some assets that way.  It wouldn’t be to the extreme of getting a top prospect or a first rounder but given that they’re not expected to contend right away, it would still be worth doing.

The other space they have is contract room.  Teams are permitted a maximum of 50 contracts and as a result of not having a full complement of minor league players, the Golden Knights sit well under the limit at 37 (although that will jump to 40 when their RFAs sign).  No team is at the maximum already but quite a few project to be within two or three of that limit when the season gets underway.  Some of those teams will want the flexibility to make in-season additions (or even sign college UFAs late in the year) which would give Vegas a chance to build some depth and add perhaps a pick or two if they use their contract slots that way.  They’re still at a spot where they will want to add as many assets as possible and this is another method that they can do so.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Vegas Still Has To Deal Multiple Defensemen

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The Vegas Golden Knights still have a lot of work left for them as the offseason continues. The team was heavily commended for focusing on drafting defense in the expansion draft several weeks ago and from there flipping those players for picks as Golden Knights general manager George McPhee has stated numerous times that they are building for the next five years. The team has stockpiled a large number of draft picks since then and still have a number of players to trade, whether that will be now or at the trade deadline next season.

However, they seem to have one issue that they must address before the season starts. Despite trading a bunch of defenseman for picks, the team still has a surplus of defensemen on its roster and the market is beginning to dry up. The team has already traded Trevor van Riemsdyk to Carolina, David Schlemko to Montreal and Marc Methot to Dallas for picks. Just last week, the team moved Alexei Emelin to Nashville, but they had to retain $1.1MM of his salary in order to make the deal work.

The team currently has 11 defensemen with NHL experience on its roster, which is about four or five defensemen too many. The team has made it clear that it doesn’t want to trade its young defensemen, so it’s the veterans they want to trade. The last thing the Golden Knights want to do is be forced to play veterans like Jason Garrison, Clayton Stoner and Luca Sbisa over their younger, but more than ready defensemen. The problem is that Garrison, Stoner and Sbisi are struggling players on expensive contracts. While all three players have only one year on their contracts remaining, Garrison will get $4.6MM, Stoner receives $3.25MM and Sbisi will make $3.6MM next season.

Garrison, 32, has lost a step and found himself being demoted to the bottom of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s depth chart. His salary forced Tampa Bay to offer Vegas two draft picks and Russian prospect Nikita Gusev to take him in the expansion draft. Stoner has dealt with numerous injuries in the last few years and Anaheim had to offer Shea Theodore to make Vegas take Stoner, but after playing just 14 games for the Ducks last year and a declining game, who would want him and that salary? Sbisi is just 27, but he struggled with Vancouver and with his salary may not have much trade value either, but he might be their best hope to make a deal.

The point, of course, is that Vegas will want to play their young defensemen like Theodore, Nate Schmidt, Colin Miller, Brayden McNabb, Jonathon Merrill and maybe even Griffin Reinhart. So, the team must do something to avoid the logjam. There are other options as well. Like Emelin, they could retain some of these players’ salaries in hopes a team would take some of them off their hands. They could wait till training camp and watch for teams that still have holes or suffer injuries that need filling. Another option would be to buy them out or even just sit them in favor of their younger players. However, one would hope Vegas has a plan in place.

Duchene Tops List Of Likely Trade Candidates

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Count Colorado Avalanche’s Matt Duchene as the most likely player to be traded in the offseason. TSN released its Trade Bait list Saturday with Duchene, Montreal’s Alex Galchenyuk and Ottawa defenseman Dion Phaneuf leading the list of players who are likely to find themselves a new home for the 2017-18 season. A Duchene trade has been rumored since before the regular season ended and been talked about by most NHL teams so far. The Avalanche, who finished the regular season with the worst record in the league, feel this might be the best time to move the 26-year-old center after a disappointing season. He scored 18 goals and had 23 assists last year, a far cry from his 2015-16 season in which he tallied 30 goals and 29 assists in a breakout season. Much of the belief is that he lacks quality line mates around him and would thrive on a different team. While the Avalanche failed to move him before the draft, it is considered inevitable that a trade happens.

Galchenyuk is considered expendable after the Montreal Canadiens acquired Jonathan Drouin on June 15. Just like Duchene, Galchenyuk scored 17 goals in 61 games, a far cry from his 30-goal output in 2015-16. However, the Canadiens are looking to bolster their defense and feel the 23-year-old might be the best path to do that. The Minnesota Wild are often suggested as a good match for the Canadiens, but many teams wouldn’t mind getting the third-overall pick in 2013. Phaneuf, who refused to waive his no-movement clause before the expansion draft, therefore forcing the Senators to expose and lose Marc Methot (coincidentally #4 on the list), is still expected to be moved. The 32-year-old had a solid season and his trade value might be at its highest. However, the franchise will have to convince teams to accept the remaining four years on his contract at $7MM a season.

Of the 15 players on the list, the Vegas Golden Knights have three players (all defensemen) on the list, including Methot, Luca Sbisa (#8), and Alexei Emelin (#12). The Avalanche have two players on the list with Duchene at the top as well as defenseman Tyson Barrie (#7). The Minnesota Wild are the only other team with multiple players on the list with Marco Scandella (#5) and Mathew Dumba (#10), although it is believed that the Wild will likely just trade one of its young defenseman and keep the other. Scandella is the more likely of the two to get traded.

For a full list, you can find it here.

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