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Vegas Golden Knights & Trade Deadline Capital

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As we look back at the recent NHL Expansion Draft, it seems as though the Vegas Golden Knights had a very clear plan. Three tenets seem to influence most if not all of their selections. Vegas Golden Knights

  1. Leverage your opportunity to gain draft picks and young players in exchange for taking a bad contract.
  2. If unwilling to deal, take players with some value and only one or two years remaining on their contract.
  3. If no players like that exist, take a pending free agent to avoid burdening your cap.

Though some may look at this and see an obvious strategy, it is amazing how closely the Golden Knights followed it. A quick look at their CapFriendly page and you can immediately see that they avoided players who were under contract long-term in the draft, as they currently have 16 players that will be unrestricted free agents either next summer or the year after that. Their only long-term contracts are Reilly Smith, David Clarkson and Erik Haula—players they acquired in trade (the Wild gave them the chance to sign Haula)—and Cody Eakin, who is under contract for a third season.

That cap flexibility is paramount to the Golden Knights, as it was never about building through the expansion draft. Almost none of the assets gained through a direct selection should play much of an impact on the team long term, and because of it GM George McPhee will be holding court on another transaction season next year. The trade deadline should be hugely influenced by the Golden Knights, with a large number of assets on the market.

James Neal, David Perron and Jon Marchessault, arguably the three most prolific offensive weapons the Golden Knights selected in the draft are all UFAs next summer, and would each command a hefty price on the open market. Established goal scorers are moved each spring for big packages, and each of these three are no different.

Brayden McNabb and Luca Sbisa headline the pending UFAs on defense and could each fetch a solid return at the deadline, especially if given increased roles for Vegas. Even Jason Garrison could be of some interest if the team is willing to retain a portion of his already (at that point) prorated salary. Garrison will probably get some powerplay time with the Golden Knights to boost his value come the deadline.

Past the UFAs, the team also has several pending RFAs already in their mid-twenties. Colin Miller for example will turn 25 just after the season begins, and is three years away from unrestricted free agency. It’s unlikely that the team competes for a Stanley Cup while Miller remains a cheap option, meaning moving him in the next year could fetch the biggest return. As a puck-moving defensemen he should get plenty of opportunity to show off his offensive upside.

Though some players will be moved out before the season starts because of the simple fact they currently have too many, it’s not unlikely that the Golden Knights will be holding all the cards come February once again. They could easily have half a dozen players on any trade bait list, and add to the impressive number of draft picks they already own.

Odd Defenseman Out In Vegas

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Although some of this might be attributed to wishful thinking, the Edmonton Journal’s David Staples openly wonders whether Griffin Reinhart could find his way back to Edmonton. This comes only a day after Reinhart was signed to a reasonable $800,000 deal for two-years in Vegas. Staples wonders whether the excess of defense on the left side will force Vegas to place Reinhart on waivers in an attempt to send him to the AHL. He surmises, probably correctly, that GM Peter Chiarelli would take another gamble on the player if it were to get that far. It seems incredibly unlikely he would make it to Edmonton’s position in the waiver wire, however, as many worse franchises would likely place a claim. It’s even less likely that Vegas management would risk losing that sort of asset for nothing in the first place.

Reinhart is unlikely to make an Edmonton return, but it’s not totally inconceivable that he’d be the odd man out in Vegas. The team went heavy on defense in the expansion draft, and odds are that they will eventually lose someone to the waiver wire if they can’t maneuver more moves. Once Nate Schmidt is signed, they’ll have 11 defensemen on the NHL roster, and that’s if Erik Brannstrom doesn’t make the big squad. Even assuming the Golden Knights can trade two more players, they’re not likely to carry more than 8 defensemen. Someone will be sacrificed to waivers unless GM George McPhee can pull some magic before the start of the season.

The most aged players include Jason Garrison (32), who has a no-trade clause, Deryk Engelland (35), Luca Sbisa (27), and Clayton Stoner (32). Brayden McNabb, Colin Miller, Schmidt, and Shea Theodore will likely constitute the team’s future defense, and it might be difficult for Reinhart to crack that group. Brad Hunt and Jon Merrill are the least likely to attract any major attention if they were to be waived, so there is no necessity to start floundering yet. Hunt in particular would pass with almost no difficulty, as the 5’9, 28-year old defender hasn’t been overly impressive in his 33 career NHL games. Still, depending on who else is moved and whether Reinhart makes an impact at training camp, he could be seen as a non-core piece. McPhee will need to make a determination as to who will be getting major playing time, considering that at this moment things are far too crowded for the younger players to shine.

McNabb, Schmidt, and Miller seem the safest for the moment, but anything can happen. The right side has to be a concern, as only Engelland and Miller naturally play that position. As for now, we’ll have to wait and see who gets unloaded for picks and future assets, and whether they will be much difficulty in doing so. It seems unlikely that Vegas would move Reinhart, a young piece who they just re-signed, considering that if nothing else he can fill a 7th or 8th defensive position. Sbisa and Stoner seem to be the most likely to move out to a team starved for defensive depth, especially considering their contracts are each only good for one more season.

Offseason Keys: Vegas Golden Knights

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While expansion and the beginning of free agency were the early headlines in what will be a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months to come. Here is a closer look at what still lies ahead for the Vegas Golden Knights.

It has already been a very busy offseason for Vegas who have swung 17 trades already as well as building their team via the expansion draft.  Despite that, GM George McPhee still has some work to do before the puck drops on their inaugural season.  Here are some remaining keys to their offseason.

Finish Shaping The Defense

While McPhee has trimmed down the number of blueliners since the draft down to 10 (they drafted 13), that’s still too many to work with given that the maximum roster size is 23.  At least one if not two still need to be moved out before the season gets underway.

Luca SbisaThe player that many expected to be moved is Luca Sbisa.  He was a bit of a surprise pick from Vancouver given that he carries a cap hit of $3.6MM for one more year and doesn’t appear to be in their long-term plans.  On the surface, it would appear that he was picked with the idea of flipping him but the post-expansion trade market for blueliners hasn’t exactly been robust as teams appear to be waiting McPhee out.

It’s only mid-July so there’s still plenty of time but it will be interesting to see if other teams are able to outwait McPhee and pick up someone at a bargain or if the market will pick up as more free agents come off the open market.

Build Minor League Depth

Although the Golden Knights will employ a shared minor league affiliate (with St. Louis), they’re still the primary feeder for AHL Chicago.  As things stand, they have around 15 players that are likely earmarked for the Wolves.  Even with the Blues sending some players there, that’s still not enough, especially when you consider the expectation of injuries not to mention the anticipated trades in-season for the nine pending unrestricted free agents that they currently have.

Though many of the top two-way free agents off the market now, there are still enough of them out there for McPhee to add a few more to the fold.  Alternatively, they could pick those players up via trades for some of the blueliners they’re likely going to be trading over the next couple of months.  It’s not a pressing need but they would be wise to set themselves up with more depth before the season gets underway.

Rent Their Space

As a result of dealing away players like Marc Methot and Alexei Emelin after the Expansion Draft plus the acquisition of LTIR-eligible David Clarkson and Mikhail Grabovski, Vegas will have plenty of wiggle room when it comes to the salary cap – about $8.6MM per CapFriendly as things currently stand.  The big names are pretty much gone in free agency but there are certainly teams that are still looking to free up cap space and the Golden Knights could conceivably swing another move or two to add some assets that way.  It wouldn’t be to the extreme of getting a top prospect or a first rounder but given that they’re not expected to contend right away, it would still be worth doing.

The other space they have is contract room.  Teams are permitted a maximum of 50 contracts and as a result of not having a full complement of minor league players, the Golden Knights sit well under the limit at 37 (although that will jump to 40 when their RFAs sign).  No team is at the maximum already but quite a few project to be within two or three of that limit when the season gets underway.  Some of those teams will want the flexibility to make in-season additions (or even sign college UFAs late in the year) which would give Vegas a chance to build some depth and add perhaps a pick or two if they use their contract slots that way.  They’re still at a spot where they will want to add as many assets as possible and this is another method that they can do so.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Vegas Still Has To Deal Multiple Defensemen

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The Vegas Golden Knights still have a lot of work left for them as the offseason continues. The team was heavily commended for focusing on drafting defense in the expansion draft several weeks ago and from there flipping those players for picks as Golden Knights general manager George McPhee has stated numerous times that they are building for the next five years. The team has stockpiled a large number of draft picks since then and still have a number of players to trade, whether that will be now or at the trade deadline next season.

However, they seem to have one issue that they must address before the season starts. Despite trading a bunch of defenseman for picks, the team still has a surplus of defensemen on its roster and the market is beginning to dry up. The team has already traded Trevor van Riemsdyk to Carolina, David Schlemko to Montreal and Marc Methot to Dallas for picks. Just last week, the team moved Alexei Emelin to Nashville, but they had to retain $1.1MM of his salary in order to make the deal work.

The team currently has 11 defensemen with NHL experience on its roster, which is about four or five defensemen too many. The team has made it clear that it doesn’t want to trade its young defensemen, so it’s the veterans they want to trade. The last thing the Golden Knights want to do is be forced to play veterans like Jason Garrison, Clayton Stoner and Luca Sbisa over their younger, but more than ready defensemen. The problem is that Garrison, Stoner and Sbisi are struggling players on expensive contracts. While all three players have only one year on their contracts remaining, Garrison will get $4.6MM, Stoner receives $3.25MM and Sbisi will make $3.6MM next season.

Garrison, 32, has lost a step and found himself being demoted to the bottom of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s depth chart. His salary forced Tampa Bay to offer Vegas two draft picks and Russian prospect Nikita Gusev to take him in the expansion draft. Stoner has dealt with numerous injuries in the last few years and Anaheim had to offer Shea Theodore to make Vegas take Stoner, but after playing just 14 games for the Ducks last year and a declining game, who would want him and that salary? Sbisi is just 27, but he struggled with Vancouver and with his salary may not have much trade value either, but he might be their best hope to make a deal.

The point, of course, is that Vegas will want to play their young defensemen like Theodore, Nate Schmidt, Colin Miller, Brayden McNabb, Jonathon Merrill and maybe even Griffin Reinhart. So, the team must do something to avoid the logjam. There are other options as well. Like Emelin, they could retain some of these players’ salaries in hopes a team would take some of them off their hands. They could wait till training camp and watch for teams that still have holes or suffer injuries that need filling. Another option would be to buy them out or even just sit them in favor of their younger players. However, one would hope Vegas has a plan in place.

Duchene Tops List Of Likely Trade Candidates

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Count Colorado Avalanche’s Matt Duchene as the most likely player to be traded in the offseason. TSN released its Trade Bait list Saturday with Duchene, Montreal’s Alex Galchenyuk and Ottawa defenseman Dion Phaneuf leading the list of players who are likely to find themselves a new home for the 2017-18 season. A Duchene trade has been rumored since before the regular season ended and been talked about by most NHL teams so far. The Avalanche, who finished the regular season with the worst record in the league, feel this might be the best time to move the 26-year-old center after a disappointing season. He scored 18 goals and had 23 assists last year, a far cry from his 2015-16 season in which he tallied 30 goals and 29 assists in a breakout season. Much of the belief is that he lacks quality line mates around him and would thrive on a different team. While the Avalanche failed to move him before the draft, it is considered inevitable that a trade happens.

Galchenyuk is considered expendable after the Montreal Canadiens acquired Jonathan Drouin on June 15. Just like Duchene, Galchenyuk scored 17 goals in 61 games, a far cry from his 30-goal output in 2015-16. However, the Canadiens are looking to bolster their defense and feel the 23-year-old might be the best path to do that. The Minnesota Wild are often suggested as a good match for the Canadiens, but many teams wouldn’t mind getting the third-overall pick in 2013. Phaneuf, who refused to waive his no-movement clause before the expansion draft, therefore forcing the Senators to expose and lose Marc Methot (coincidentally #4 on the list), is still expected to be moved. The 32-year-old had a solid season and his trade value might be at its highest. However, the franchise will have to convince teams to accept the remaining four years on his contract at $7MM a season.

Of the 15 players on the list, the Vegas Golden Knights have three players (all defensemen) on the list, including Methot, Luca Sbisa (#8), and Alexei Emelin (#12). The Avalanche have two players on the list with Duchene at the top as well as defenseman Tyson Barrie (#7). The Minnesota Wild are the only other team with multiple players on the list with Marco Scandella (#5) and Mathew Dumba (#10), although it is believed that the Wild will likely just trade one of its young defenseman and keep the other. Scandella is the more likely of the two to get traded.

For a full list, you can find it here.

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