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Free Agent Focus: Columbus Blue Jackets

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With free agency now just a couple weeks away, teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. While the Columbus Blue Jackets have no UFA’s of note, they still have their work cut out for them with a laundry list of RFA’s, including several core players.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Pierre-Luc Dubois – Getting Dubois, 22, locked up long-term is the core objective of the Blue Jackets’ off-season. Over the three seasons of his entry-level contract, Dubois totaled 158 points in 234 games, including a 61-point campaign in 2018-19 and a 57-point pace this season. He also wrapped up his contract on a high note, recording ten points in ten playoff games this year. For a team that is lacking in center depth and elite scoring talent, Dubois is critical to the short-term and long-term success of the Blue Jackets.

The problem is balancing Dubois’ long-term potential and dollar value with the team’s limited cap space for next season With no unrestricted free agents departing the lineup, the Blue Jackets have limited funds to work with against the flat cap. Yet, they also don’t want to settle for a more affordable short-term contract and risk Dubois continuing to improve and increasing his price on a new contract. Negotiations are already underway and the goal stated by both sides is to stick with a lengthy term and to get the deal done before free agency opens to provide the club with some cap clarity.

If a long-term extension can be reached, don’t be surprised to see an AAV of upwards of $8MM or more. If the two sides instead opt for a short-term deal given the fiscal constraints of the current NHL economy, Dubois is still likely set to make $6.5MM or more against the cap on his next deal.

F Josh Anderson – It’s difficult to know where the status quo lies between the Blue Jackets and Anderson. The last time that these two sides sat down to negotiate a contract, it was a contentious affair that ended in a late-summer, below-market contract that left Anderson unhappy and fueled trade rumors. Those flames were stoked by a 27-goal, 47-point season for Andersson in 2018-19 in which the young power forward greatly outplayed his contract. Yet, the tables turned again this season, as Anderson missed much of the year due to injury and was unproductive even when active. The season tanked Anderson’s trade value and at least some of his bargaining power and left his future with Columbus up in the air.

The latest twist in this saga was Anderson’s recent proclamation that he hopes to sign long-term in Columbus. This runs counter to his previous sentiment, but could end up working in the Blue Jackets’ favor. Given their cap crunch this off-season, the team could benefit from deflating the AAV on an Andersson extension by extending the term. Anderson could also return to form and again be a bargain for the club. The risk of course is that his injury troubles persist or he is unable to rediscover his scoring touch. Given the uncertainty of this off-season and Andersson’s health and performance, this seems like a case that is more likely to be settled in salary arbitration than with a long-term deal. While a one-year arbitrator’s decision might risk Andersson leaving as an unrestricted free agent next summer, the Blue Jackets would likely be happy to get an affordable deal done for Anderson and to have another year to consider whether they want to re-sign or trade the big winger.

D Vladislav Gavrikov – Since joining Columbus in the 2019 playoffs, Gavrikov has done nothing but prove that he is a solid two-way defenseman. While his lack of NHL experience makes it difficult to project his long-term value, Gavrikov has at least earned a raise and some security in his next contract. It’s unclear what the expectations are for Gavrikov’s new deal, but the Blue Jackets have all of the leverage. Due to his limited experience, Gavrikov falls under Section 10.2(c) of the CBA as a restricted free agent who is not eligible to sign an offer sheet. Barring a trade, Columbus is the only NHL team that Gavrikov can play for and they can more or less dictate the terms of the next contract. With that said, Gavrikov has proven to be a reliable top-four defenseman and the Blue Jackets are not going to play games. Expect the team to work out a short-term deal with Gavrikov and potentially trade one of their other seven one-way defensemen to cement his role as a core piece on the blue line.

Other RFAs: F Paul Bittner, F Marko Dano, F Maxime Fortier, F Jakob Lilja, F Ryan MacInnis, F Justin Scott, F Devin Shore, F Kole Sherwood, F Calvin Thurkauf, D Gabriel Carlsson, D Ryan Collins, D Michael Prapavessis, G Matiss Kivlenieks

UFAs: D Dillon Simpson, D Doyle Somerby

Projected Cap Space

CapFriendly lists the Blue Jackets as having 22 of 23 roster spots already filled for next season, including 19 one-way contracts. As a result, it should not be a surprise that their cap space is limited, with CapFriendly projecting just over $7MM to spare. The concern though is that Dubois and Gavrikov – at the very least – will be on the roster and should combine for well over $7MM. And that is not even including any free agent or trade additions for a team that has vowed to be active on the forward market. Fortunately, the team will get a bit of a break in the form of Brandon Dubinsky, who is not healthy enough to play again. Dubinsky’s $5.85MM cap hit will be wiped out, bringing Columbus’ true cap space total to around $13MM. While most of that will still be taken up by RFA signings, it will give the club some more flexibility to change up the roster if they so desire.

Long-Term Injuries Represent Continued Opportunity For Cash-Rich Teams

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The NHL’s salary cap ceiling will be $81.5MM for 2020-21 and will not increase until the league’s hockey-related revenue surpasses $3.3 billion once again. Even then, the number will grow slowly as the difference in escrow is slowly paid off. Despite that cap being the theoretical number that teams can spend to, many around the league will be icing rosters that are quite a bit cheaper.

Frank Seravalli of TSN reported just a few days ago that the Buffalo Sabres, Arizona Coyotes and Pittsburgh Penguins could all be operating with an internal budget much lower (with the Coyotes perhaps going “just south of $70MM”). They aren’t the only three, which could potentially open up even more opportunities for cash-rich organizations that have strong financial backing. Not only will they be able to bring in a roster that adds up to the salary cap ceiling, but players that are earning more money than their cap hits in 2020-21 could potentially be available in trade at a bargain price.

The other opportunity is one that has existed for some time but could be amplified this offseason: long-term injured reserve.

For years now, teams have traded in “dead contracts” in various situations. Trading for players who are under contract but will never play again has been a routine occurrence for teams like the Coyotes and Toronto Maple Leafs—though the two use those opportunities in very different ways. The Maple Leafs have used a strong financial situation to take on the contracts of players like Nathan Horton and David Clarkson, giving them a bit more flexibility when it comes to the salary cap. No, these dead contracts are not just bonus cap space as some imply, but they can create some creative ways to provide wiggle room around the hard cap.

It’s hard to use this to your advantage when you’re already working on an internal budget, especially with contracts that are not fully insured. But for those teams still able to flex their financial might, there will be some obvious candidates this offseason should they want to pursue these LTIR opportunities and can figure out a way to make it benefit their individual situation.

Ryan Kesler has two seasons remaining on his contract with the Anaheim Ducks, which is set to pay him $6.675MM annually. The 36-year-old forward is not expected to play again thanks to multiple hip surgeries, which ended his playing career in 2019 after he battled through pain to reach the 1000-game mark. Kesler does have a full no-movement clause for this season (which will switch to an eight-team no-trade clause in 2021), but that has been worked around in past transactions like this.

The Coyotes themselves still have Marian Hossa on the books for one more season at a $5.275MM cap hit, though his actual salary is still just $1MM for 2020-21. Hossa hasn’t played since a skin condition forced him into retirement in 2017 and could potentially be used as a trade chip if another team is looking for help reaching the salary cap floor this year. Henrik Zetterberg, is another player whose salary is just $1MM in 2020-21, though he carries a $6.08MM cap hit. The Red Wings have moved on from legendary players in this situation before, trading Pavel Datsyuk’s dead contract to the Coyotes in 2016.

Marian Gaborik is much the same, having last played in the 2017-18 season with the Ottawa Senators. The 38-year-old Gaborik is still under contract for next season and carries a $4.875MM cap hit, but is owed just $3.075MM in actual salary. According to a Postmedia report from 2018, approximately 80% of Gaborik’s salary is covered by insurance, making it an inexpensive way for the Senators to build up their commitments, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be used in a deal to get him completely off the books this summer.

One of the newest additions to this retired-but-still-active group is Brandon Dubinsky of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who missed all of the 2019-20 season with a chronic wrist injury. That injury is expected to keep him from ever playing again, but he is still owed $5.85MM for the 2020-21 season.

Of note, the Maple Leafs, who have been the team most notably acquiring these heavy LTIR contracts, will see both Clarkson and Horton come off the books this offseason. That doesn’t by any means indicate that they will go this route again, but don’t be surprised if you see some movement this offseason on players that will never actually hit the ice in an NHL game again.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Brandon Dubinsky Unlikely To Play Again

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The Columbus Blue Jackets were without Brandon Dubinsky for the entire 2019-20 season thanks to a chronic wrist injury, but he does have another year under contract with the team. Unfortunately, at this point, it doesn’t appear as though he will be able to return at any point. Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen told reporters today including Aaron Portzline of The Athletic that Dubinsky will “most likely” not play again because of the injury.

If that’s it for the veteran forward, he leaves the NHL with quite a successful career. A second-round draft pick of the New York Rangers in 2004, Dubinsky was in the NHL before his 21st birthday and never looked back. A heart-and-soul contributor for the Rangers throughout the first five full seasons of his career, he recorded 213 points in 393 regular season games on broadway.

In 2012 he was part of the massive trade that took Rick Nash to New York, heading back to Columbus beside Artem Anisimov and a first-round pick. Dubinsky would sign a long-term extension with the Blue Jackets in 2014, one that will still pay him $5.85MM next season even as he hits long-term injured reserve.

For the Blue Jackets, this actually may be something of a blessing in disguise, despite the leadership role that Dubinsky serves on the club. The team can move him to LTIR and gain a bit of extra cap flexibility instead of seeing his contract—which carries the second-highest cap hit on the team—anchor their finances next season.

Alternatively, because Dubinsky’s contract still owes him a full $5.85MM in salary, the Blue Jackets could move it to another team. Clubs all over the NHL will be looking to cut costs as revenue plummets, leading to an opportunity for those that are still financially stable. Columbus have made moves like this in the past, initially swapping Nathan Horton and David Clarkson’s contracts with Toronto because of a difference in insurance coverage, and then giving up draft picks to Vegas in order for them to take Clarkson’s deal off the books as well.

It is unfortunate how it looks like it will end for Dubinsky, but the 34-year-old can look back and be proud of an 823-game career. He is currently sixth all-time in Blue Jackets scoring, and had 438 points overall.

Snapshots: Lafleur, Snow, Dubinsky

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The hockey world held its breath when news broke that Guy Lafleur was heading in for quadruple bypass heart surgery. The Montreal Canadiens were proud to report however that the procedure was a success and Lafleur is expected to make a full recovery. We here at PHR wish the entire Lafleur family the best as they work through the recovery period, and are glad everything went smoothly. The 68-year old is one of the most well-known and successful players in NHL history, scoring 1,353 points in 1,1127 games over his long career.

Here are some more notes from around the league:

  • Chris Snow has been named an assistant general manager for the Calgary Flames. The 38-year old Snow has worked with the team for several years as their director of hockey analysis, running their advanced statistics department. He also previously worked for the Minnesota Wild and as a beat writer for both the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Boston Globe. Snow will join Craig Conroy and Brad Pascall as assistant general managers for the club.
  • When the Columbus Blue Jackets announced that Brandon Dubinsky would be out with a wrist injury to start the year, they explained that his timetable was indefinite. That may mean long-term, according to Dubinsky’s agent Kurt Overhardt, who spoke with Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription required). It is the same injury that Dubinsky dealt with last season.

Injury Notes: Dubinsky, McCabe, Blackhawks

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have already run into some injury trouble, announcing that Brandon Dubinsky will be out indefinitely with a wrist injury. Dubinsky is expected to miss the start of the regular season, though it’s obviously not clear how long this will keep him out.

This injury will open the door for another young Blue Jackets forward to see more ice, and isn’t the end of the world for Columbus given Dubinsky’s decline over recent years. Since the start of the 2017-18 campaign, the veteran forward has struggled offensively and recorded just 31 points in 139 games including just a single goal in 16 playoff contests. With Artemi Panarin gone to New York the Blue Jackets will need new faces to take on some of the offensive responsibility, and someone like Alexandre Texier will be relied on even more heavily as injuries start to pile up.

  • Buffalo Sabres defenseman Jake McCabe will miss the rest of the preseason with an upper-body injury, though the team believes he will be available to start the season. The Sabres loaded blueline is starting to look thinner and thinner thanks to several injuries, and it is not clear who would take his place if McCabe is not ready to go next week. Injuries aren’t a new thing for the 25-year old, who has played just 112 games over the last two seasons combined.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks were without Robin Lehner at practice today as he nurses a right hip injury, but it is not expected to keep him out long. Kirby Dach, who has been working through a concussion, will travel with the team to Europe for their Global Series matchups but isn’t expected to play in either game. The Blackhawks leave on Thursday and will play an exhibition match against Berlin in Germany before opening their regular season against the Philadelphia Flyers in Prague, Czech Republic.

Metropolitan Notes: Milano, Texier, Morin

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Despite losing all that forward talent this summer, the Columbus Blue Jackets find themselves in quite a roster jam. With 12 spots all but locked up, there is just one spot remaining for the bubble players. Amongst those is Sonny Milano, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, who looked like a impressive top-six option after the 2017-18 season when he tallied 15 goals as a rookie. However, he found himself instead spending most of 2018-19 with the Cleveland Monsters in the AHL and there is no guarantee that he will make the team this year. To make matters worse, Milano would have to pass through waivers if Columbus decides to cut him from the team, which would almost certainly result in another team claiming him.

The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline (subscription required) writes that the Blue Jackets would prefer to trade him than pass him through waivers, but the market for Milano has been cold. The team could opt to keep him and consider moving on from one of its veteran players, such as Markus Hannikainen or Brandon Dubinsky. However, the team wouldn’t be able to bury Dubinsky in the minors with his $5.85MM salary. However, Hannikainen might be an easier option as he makes just $750K.

  • Sticking with the Blue Jackets, Portzine, in a separate article, writes that Columbus is considering giving former star Artemi Panarin’s first-line position into the hands of rookie Alexandre Texier this season. Panarin, the team’s lead winger last season, left for the New York Rangers over the summer, but the team believes that the 20-year-old may be able to succeed in that role this year. Texier scored one goal in two late regular season games and played in all eight playoff games for Columbus, scoring two goals and three points. The scribe adds that if Texier does win the top-line job, he could become a top candidate for the Calder Trophy.
  • Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi believes that the Philadelphia Flyers are likely to keep eight defensemen out of training camp. The team has a numbers problem with defensemen and with only one of them waiver exempt, Philippe Myers, who is a lock to make the team, the Flyers would have to put a player on waivers, likely Samuel Morin. Philadelphia believes there is a good chance they would lose Morin if they put him on waivers and are more likely to keep the extra defenseman instead.

Columbus Blue Jackets Make Four Roster Moves

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The Columbus Blue Jackets were busy this morning, making several roster moves as they prepare for the last week before the trade deadline. Brandon Dubinsky has been activated from injured reserve, while Markus Hannikainen takes his place there. In addition, Adam Clendening has been recalled from the minor leagues while Kole Sherwood has been assigned to the AHL. Hannikainen’s IR stint is retroactive to February 14th.

Dubinsky has played just 37 games this season, and missed the last two weeks with a lower-body injury. The veteran forward has 11 points this season and has been relegated to a bottom-six role, but is still a veteran leader on the team and a big body who can engage physically and be a positive in the faceoff circle. The Blue Jackets have extremely thin center depth thanks to another down season for Alexander Wennberg, meaning they’ll take all the help they can get from a player like Dubinsky.

For Sherwood, a demotion comes just after making his NHL debut with the club a few nights ago. The 22-year old forward followed up that performance with over 11 minutes of ice time last night against the Tampa Bay Lightning and didn’t look outmatched at the highest level. Still, he has more to do in order to establish himself as a full-time resident in the Columbus lineup.

The moves leave Columbus with 13 forwards, meaning Anthony Duclair is likely the lone forward scratch for tonight’s game against the Montreal Canadiens.

East Notes: Ceci, Flyers, Dubinsky, Hannikainen

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While the Senators have several notable pending unrestricted free agents, they also have an intriguing restricted free agent on the horizon in defenseman Cody Ceci.  With a $4.3MM qualifying offer due at the end of the season, that may be too rich for Ottawa’s liking.  Accordingly, TSN’s Bob McKenzie noted in an appearance on TSN 1200 (audio link) that Ceci could also be a trade candidate for the Sens down the stretch.  His possession numbers aren’t pretty but he has been miscast in a top role all season long and it’s plausible to think that he would fare better in a lower spot on a contending team in a role that he’s better suited to play at this stage of his career.

Elsewhere out East:

  • With the Flyers moving out Jordan Weal to Arizona earlier in the week, it’s a sign that they’re at least ready to start dealing some depth pieces. With that in mind, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jordan Hall suggests that winger Michael Raffl and defenseman Christian Folin could be in line for a similar fate.  Raffl has taken a step back offensively this season and has just two goals in 31 games but has scored at least 13 in three of the last four seasons which will help his market.  Folin, meanwhile, has played a sparing role but as he’s a right-shot defender, there should be a little bit of interest.  Both players are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer.
  • The Blue Jackets will be without center Brandon Dubinsky (hamstring) and winger Markus Hannikainen (elbow) for a while, reports Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch. Both players were moved to injured reserve earlier in the week but instead of being out for days like the team had hoped, it appears both will be out longer.

Sergei Bobrovsky Will Not Dress Due To Team Incident

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have issued a press release indicating that Sergei Bobrovsky will not dress for the team’s game against the Nashville Predators tonight, citing an “incident” which has caused the team to basically suspend (though not in those words) the veteran goaltender. GM Jarmo Kekalainen explains:

There are certain expectations and values that we have established for our players that define our culture. An incident occurred in which Sergei failed to meet those expectations and values, so we made the decision that he would not be with the team for tonight’s game. This is an internal matter and we will have no further comment at this time.

In Bobrovsky’s place the team has recalled Jean-Francois Berube while also moving Brandon Dubinsky and Markus Hannikainen to injured reserve. The veteran goaltender is expected to be back with the team at practice on Friday, and head coach John Tortorella would not go into any more detail about the situation when pressed by media.

The development is certainly an interesting one given the situation that is brewing in Columbus. Bobrovsky is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and has been considered a potential trade target for months. Pulled in his last game after allowing four goals, the 30-year old goaltender now sits on just a .906 save percentage for the year, a far cry from his career average of .919 or the heights he reached as a two-time Vezina Trophy winner.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Columbus Blue Jackets

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads past the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. Let’s take a look at what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Columbus Blue Jackets. 

What are the Blue Jackets most thankful for?

There has been a dark cloud around the Blue Jackets at the start of the season with two of their best players suggesting they would rather be elsewhere (I’ll talk about that later) and then a significant injury to top defenseman Seth Jones, who tore a ligament in his knee during the preseason and missed the first month of the season. Throw in a disappointing season the previous year from players such as Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Dubinsky and Boone Jenner and many wondered whether the franchise might take a step back this season.

Instead, the Blue Jackets have played quite well and stand in second place in the Metropolitan Division with a solid 15-9-2 record this season. Several players have stepped up and the team has gotten solid goaltending. With a solid defense and lots of offense, the Blue Jackets look like a team that will contend and hopefully can make a deep push into the playoffs as the franchise hasn’t gotten out of the first round since the 2008-09 season.

Who are the Blue Jackets most thankful for?

Not more than a year ago, Columbus handed Cam Atkinson a seven-year, $41.1MM extension and he responded with a disappointing season, posting a pedestrian 24 goals and 46 points, the lowest of his career since the 2014-15 season. With a number of veterans struggling after being handed long-term deals (Dubinsky, Wennberg), many wondered whether the Blue Jackets made a mistake when they inked the then 28-year-old to such a long extension.

Fast forward one year and Atkinson is proving his value with a banner season so far. He has already scored 16 goals and 27 points in 25 games and looks to be developing into a point-per-game player, which would blow away any previous career highs. His team-leading five power play goals and two short-handed goals prove he has become the team’s most valuable player on the team so far this season amongst a large number of big names.

What would the Blue Jackets be even more thankful for?

While the team has got some secondary scoring, the team keeps hoping to turn some players’ careers around. The team signed Anthony Duclair to a one-year deal in hopes of developing him into the player everyone thought he would develop into. The Blue Jackets also had high hopes that Oliver Bjorkstrand would develop into a top-six player. While Duclair has already put up eight goals this season, he’s fallen into head coach John Tortorella’s doghouse and is has only scored one goal in the last eight games. Bjorkstrand, on the other hand, has struggled all year having scored just two goals along with two assists. Both are now fighting it out between each other for who gets a spot on Columbus’ third line. Hopefully, one of those player can distinguish themselves and take their game to a new level.

What should be on the Blue Jackets Holiday Wish List?

The team has a pair of major concerns on their roster with Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky about to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of the year. Both players have expressed a desire to play elsewhere, which could be devastating to the franchise. With the team unwilling to trade them off if they are in the hunt as the team values taking the team on a deep playoff run over trading them both off and rebuilding their roster again, there is a good chance the team will hold onto them. Panarin has expressed a desire to be in a bigger city, while Bobrovsky is looking for a record-breaking contract even bigger than that of Carey Price’s eight-year, $84MM deal that he signed last summer.

General manager Jarmo Kekalainen hopes that a winning culture can convince each of them to remain with the team so the team can finally make a Stanley Cup run that the franchise needs for its fans. Even if the team can retain one of them, that would be a big boost for the franchise which would likely fall flat without both of them.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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