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Petr Mrazek, Four Others Clear Waivers

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March 21: Mrazek, Clifford, Turris, Jaros, and Nash cleared waivers today ahead of the Trade Deadline. Sateri, Richardson, and Pouliot were all claimed.

March 20: The Toronto Maple Leafs have been dealing with goaltending issues for the past while, and after Erik Kallgren was given the net for the last several games, it was unclear where Petr Mrazek fit into the future of the team. Today, the Maple Leafs have offered Mrazek to the rest of the league by placing him on waivers according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. He is one of three Maple Leafs on the list today, joined by Kyle Clifford and Harri Sateri, a free agent goaltender the Maple Leafs have signed from the KHL, who has to clear waivers before he comes back to North America.

Those aren’t the only players on waivers though. The full list is as follows:

Riley Nash (ARI)
Brad Richardson (CGY)
Kyle Turris (EDM)
Christian Jaros (NJD)
Kyle Clifford (TOR)
Petr Mrazek (TOR)
Harri Sateri (TOR)
Derrick Pouliot (VGK)

Sateri, 32, just won an Olympic gold medal with Finland and has been an excellent netminder in the KHL for the last three seasons, but certainly doesn’t have a very long track record of success in North America. Drafted 106th overall back in 2008 by the San Jose Sharks, he struggled in parts of four minor league seasons before going to Russia. A few years later he was back with the Florida Panthers, where he played in nine NHL games and posted a .911 save percentage. After another sub-par year in the minors he was back overseas.

His signing, which will consist of a one-year contract that carries a cap hit of $750K through the end of this season, could be seen as nothing more than organizational depth at the deadline. With Mrazek’s struggles and placement on waivers today though, along with a recent injury to Jack Campbell, the Maple Leafs crease is completely up for grabs, even for a player like Sateri that is coming in fresh from outside the organization. That is of course as long as he clears, something that is certainly not a guarantee given how inexpensive his contract is.

It’s Mrazek that is the big name, given the fact that he signed a three-year, $11.4MM contract with the Maple Leafs just last summer. With a $3.8MM cap hit through 2023-24, a loan to the minor leagues would only clear $1.125MM for Toronto ahead of the deadline. With how quickly he has fallen out of favor with the Maple Leafs, Mrazek seems a prime buyout candidate for this offseason, should the team be unable to trade his contract elsewhere in the coming months.

Among the rest of the names are some veterans who could be snatched for a playoff run, though none are difference-makers at this point in their respective careers. Notably, for a player to be eligible for the rest of the AHL season and playoffs, he has to be on the roster at tomorrow’s deadline. For these players to get to that threshold, they needed to be placed on waivers today, if there was any thought of stashing them in the AHL down the stretch.

Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.

The Nashville Predators are sellers. In fact, the Predators being ready to gut their roster has been one of the more talked-about storylines of the 2020-21 season. Ask any media personality in hockey and they will say that Nashville is shopping this guy and listening on that guy. It seems that almost anyone on the roster could be available as the Predators have been labeled as disappointments.

Yet, hidden behind the headlines, the outrage level likely isn’t that high internally in Nashville. Quietly, the team is actually playing quite well of late. Since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman proclaimed last month that there were only three untouchables on the entire Nashville roster, the team has gone 10-7-1 including four wins in a row and wins in six of their past seven. The team is up to .500 on the season and that could be enough to sneak into the postseason in the Central Division’s final spot. In their history, the Predators have never really torn apart their roster and restarted and it seems unlikely that they have the proper motivation to do so now.

With that said, this is still not where the 2017 Western Conference Champions thought they would be at this point in time. The season results have gotten worse each year since their Stanley Cup Final appearance: a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round loss in 2019, and a failure to even advance beyond the qualifying round last year. Now, there is a real possibility that the Predators could miss the playoffs entirely this season. A team loaded with depth and numerous talented veterans, Nashville should be better and it is somewhat inexplicable why they aren’t. As a result, there needs to be a shake-up. However, given the recent improvements, the Predators’ approach to the deadline is likely to be less fire sale and more strategic dealing, especially in a buyer’s market.

Record

17-17-1, .500, T-5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$2.46MM in full-season space ($10.97MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

It is probably easier to start with the players who aren’t for sale. As Friedman noted back in February, that definitely includes career Predator goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is in the last year of his contract and quite possibly his career and is being honored with the ability to go out on his own terms (and a No-Movement Clause helps). It also included cornerstone defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. At the time, this was the extent of Friedman’s list. He even noted that young defender Dante Fabbro or top scorer Filip Forsberg could be available at the right price. Now, that is almost certainly not the case. Friedman has also since flipped on Ellis’ availability, but he should be safe. Nashville also has no reason to trade young impact players, such as off-season acquisition Luke Kunin, recent first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen, collegiate standouts Rem Pitlick and Jeremy Davies, and impressive goaltender Juuse Saros.

Beyond that group, it probably isn’t a stretch to say that GM David Poile will at least listen to offers for anyone else on the roster. Part of that is due to the Predators’ current situation and the slim likelihood that they can contend this season, even if they do sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Central Division. This means that they receive no benefit from hanging on to their impending unrestricted free agents. Mikael Granlund is the top trade chip among this group. The skilled forward was a late off-season signing and somewhat of an afterthought heading into the season, but leads all Nashville forwards in time on ice, proving himself to be an invaluable piece. Other teams have taken notice as well, as Granlund’s name has been floated on the rumor mill more than a few times and has been linked to several contenders. Another late off-season addition, Erik Haula will also be for sale. A similarly versatile forward to Granlund, Haula hasn’t made as much of an impact but has previously proven to be an asset in the right system. Among other expiring contracts, veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa, if healthy by the deadline, could draw some interest at a cheap price point. Despite their recent success, the Predators only reason for not trading any of these potential rentals would be if they had interest in an extension and only Granlund, their most valuable piece, would conceivably fit the bill.

The other reason why Poile is open to moving other players off his roster, those with term on their contracts, is partially due to the impending Expansion Draft. Whether the Predators choose to use the standard 7-3 protection scheme or instead choose the 8-skater scheme in order to protect Mattias Ekholm, they will be exposing key players either way. Ironically, the Predators’ impressive depth on paper is not doing much to help them this season but will hurt them in expansion. Ekholm is at the top of most trade boards as a name likely to move before the deadline. The Seattle Kraken would not hesitate to claim him if he was to be left exposed in the draft and the Predators will not give him up for free when he can command a strong return on the trade market as a balanced, two-way defenseman with an affordable contract and a reliable top-four track record. Yet, even if Ekholm is traded and the Predators can protect three defensemen and seven forwards, they still face liability up front. Nashville simply has too many valuable names at forward, even if many are underachieving. Are they really ready to let expensive, underwhelming former stars like Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene go for free? Could they really leave career Predators like Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons exposed? And they also need to consider protecting younger names like Pitlick an Yakov Trenin who could be looked upon to take on larger roles moving forward. There are simply too many names in Nashville for a valuable player not to be left exposed, so why not listen to trade offers instead. Moving Johansen or Duchene this season is unlikely due to cap implications, but Jarnkrok, Sissons, Rocco Grimaldi, and Nick Cousins are all for sale at the right price. The difference between last month’s mindset and the current strategy is likely that only one or two of the aforementioned players are likely to go, rather than the whole lot in a fire sale.

The x-factor for Nashville at the deadline is forward Viktor Arvidsson. By no means does the team have to trade the talented winger, who will have a safe spot on their protection list come Expansion Draft time if he is still on the roster. However, Arvidsson has been in decline for two seasons now – an unexpected regression for a 27-year-old. Arvidsson is still relied upon to play a key top-six role for Nashville, but is failing to produce like he did as a back-to-back 61-point player just a few years ago. On one hand, the Predators would be selling low on the skilled forward, who should still have plenty left in the tank. On the other hand, moving Arvidsson if they are happy with an offer could be the reality check that the team desperately needs. If the trade market remains underwhelming though, as many expect, it is more likely that Arvidsson stays put for now. Trading him at his lowest point while the team is finally gaining traction is not the shake up they need.

Others to Watch For: D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, 2022 UFA), D Matt Benning ($1MM, 2022 UFA), G Kasimir Kaskisuo ($700K, UFA), D Ben Harpur ($700K, RFA), F Michael McCarron ($700K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Despite several years in a row of regular season success, the Predators have managed to build themselves a nice pipeline of talent. At every position, they have multiple players who project to be good NHLers. The problem with their current pipeline is that it is getting a little old. Some of their best prospects are already in the pros, bouncing between the NHL and AHL or locked into contracts overseas. Many others are collegiate players on the older side for prospects. Nashville needs some fresh blood and the best way to do that is to add draft picks. Though they have their full complement of draft picks this year (minus a seventh-rounder), draft pick packages will be the way to go as they move on from current roster players.

2) Top-Four Left-Handed Prospect Defenseman – If available, the one area that Nashville could target a specific player rather than load up on draft picks is at left defense. With Ekholm looking like his time in Nashville is winding down and some concern over whether Boston University defenseman David Farrance will sign with the team or instead opt for free agency, there could be a major hole in the top-four at LHD. The Predators have the cap space to find a capable free agent stopgap, but could use a long-term plan. Young pros Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Frederic Allard are all right-handed and Davies looks like a solid NHLer but is already 24 and lacks top-pair upside. In the pipeline, Marc Del Gaizo is an intriguing prospect but more likely a bottom-pair defender. No one else even projects to be an NHLer. The Predators need to reload on the blue line, and can do that through the draft, but if a top young left-handed defense prospect is offered up, they would be wise to consider. To a lesser extent, center is also a position that could become a need sooner rather than later in Nashville as many of the Predators’ top forward prospects are not necessarily projected to play center at the top level. A natural pivot with top-six upside would be a nice addition, but isn’t as pressing as left defense and could be more easily found where the team expects to pick in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

Could Coronavirus Lead To The Return Of Compliance Buyouts?

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Just two weeks after the NHL announced a projected 2020-21 salary cap range that would have represented a major boost in teams’ spending power, things could not have gone in a worse direction in terms of meeting that estimation. The Coronavirus outbreak has shut the league down and there is no way to know when or if games will return this season. The league hopes to resume play and even maintains that they would like to avoid missing any games, but with each passing day that reality grows less and less likely. COVID-19 fears seem almost certain to cost games if not the entirety of the remaining regular season schedule and, in the worst-case scenario, possibly the playoffs as well. Missed games are missed revenue opportunities and the board of governors would be highly unlikely to approve a cap increase, especially of the magnitude initially projected, if they continue to suffer losses.

The last time that the NHL was forced to cancel games was in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. As the league and players’ association battled over collective bargaining terms, the NHL missed the first half of their season. A 48-game schedule began on January 19th, which for all involved was better than nothing but was certainly a hit to owners’ bottom lines. The 2012-13 campaign was expected to carry a $70.2MM cap hit, but that instead was a pro-rated number that in reality was just $60MM. The following season, given the lost revenue, the cap only meagerly returned to just $64.3MM, the same upper limit as in 2011-12.

Due to the unexpected stagnation of the salary cap for those two years, many teams were left under immense pressure to fit their rosters under the ceiling. In response, the NHL offered a solution: the “compliance buyout”. The compliance buyout follows the same rules as a standard buyout, allowing teams to cut ties with a player at the cost of two-thirds of the remaining value of their contract (one-third if under 26) over the course of double the length of the remaining term on the contract. The one defining difference is that compliance buyouts do not count against the salary cap. The NHL made this option available in the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons, with a limit of two per team over the two summers, and 18 teams took advantage. In fact, a number of teams are still paying off those buyouts – with a ways to go – with standouts including Christian Ehrhoff, Brad Richards, Ilya Bryzgalov, Vincent Lecavalier, and of course Rick DiPietro.

Could the compliance buyout make a return appearance should the Coronavirus outbreak continue to prevent NHL action from returning? If NHL teams end up losing revenue due to missed games, the 2020-21 salary cap limit will at best be the low end of the league’s projection, which is $84MM. And that would still be a $2.5MM increase. More likely in the case of canceled games would be the salary cap remaining at $81.5MM or only increasing marginally. Such a shift in the expected course of action would leave many teams in trouble. A report earlier today named the Chicago Blackhawks as one team that would have to make difficult roster decisions in the event of a stagnant cap, but they are far from alone. 13 teams already have $70MM+ in salary committed to 2020-21, while many of the 12 more  teams in the $60-70MM range either have key free agents to re-sign or are working with a small number of signed players. The Arizona Coyotes, who lead the pack with $79.99MM committed to just 18 players, were already hard-pressed to deal with an $84MM salary cap, nevertheless a continuation of the current $81.5MM. They would be left in a nearly impossible situation, unless offered a way out.

As such, it seems like a strong possibility that the compliance buyout could make its triumphant return. While the league does not want to address the “what if” of missed games at this point in time, should it reach the point where that result is inevitable, compliance buyouts will certainly become a hot topic. Whether the league would go about the process in a similar manner as they did last time around remains to be seen. They might instead offer a one-time shot this summer in light of NHL Expansion in 2021 that should get the salary cap back on track. It’s too early to tell, but as we all wait out the Coronavirus, it’s worth wondering whether the league could bring back an old device to mitigate the lasting effect of the pandemic.

Metropolitan Notes: Yzerman, Rangers, Penguins, Devils

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The announcement yesterday that long-time New York Rangers president Glen Sather would be stepping down from his hockey operations role has opened up a vacancy that will be highly valued by many. The New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that former Tampa Bay Lightning GM Steve Yzerman could be one of a number of experienced players or executives with their eye on the job. Yzerman notably left his post as Tampa’s GM prior to this season and many have speculated that he would be moving on to a new team and new title this off-season. Much of that speculation has centered around his former club, the Detroit Red Wings, but Brooks believes the top job in New York would also be a desirable destination. While Brooks cites several sources, he also stops short of confirming Yzerman’s interest in the job, saying that he simply “is amenable to being wooed” and would not “necessarily accept an offer if one were to be presented.” Nevertheless, the prospect of Yzerman joining the rebuilding Rangers, who are both a popular free agent destination and a well-stocked farm system, is intriguing. Yzerman has a track record of success with the Lightning and Team Canada and could be a major asset in turning the Rangers around in short order.

  • Brooks also names current Columbus Blue Jackets President of Hockey Operations John Davidson as a candidate to make a lateral move over to the division rival Rangers. In fact, Brooks names Davidson and Yzerman as the two favorites to replace Sather at this point. Other possible candidates include Rangers legend and Hall of Famer Brian Leetch, another long-time Ranger and current radio analyst Dave Maloney, and the recently retired Brad Richards. Brooks believes that the Rangers will work quickly to name a new president, citing Sather himself as saying the team hopes to make the hire by at least the start of free agency, if not by the NHL Entry Draft.
  • Two exciting Pittsburgh Penguins prospects are getting a taste of the pro game for the remainder of the season. The AHL’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins announced that forward Jordy Bellerive and defenseman Calen Addison have been signed to amateur tryout offers and have joined the team. The Lethbridge Hurricanes teammates saw their junior season end in the first round of the WHL playoffs, but are now on to a new challenge. Bellerive, 19, was undrafted but signed as free agent with the Penguins ahead of the 2017-18 season. He has since posted 175 points in 139 games over back-to-back tremendous seasons. The Lethbridge captain is arguably the Penguins’ top forward prospect and the team will be interested to see how he looks in the minors. Meanwhile, Addison may be Pittsburgh’s top defense prospect. The small, but speedy blue liner just completed his second season of near point-per-game production and is developing into the type of puck-moving defenseman that is re-shaping the way the NHL is played. A second-round pick last year, the Penguins spent considerable draft capital on Addison, but have to be happy with his consistent offensive play and the growth of his two-way game.
  • Fans of the New Jersey Devils will be fans of the Los Angeles Kings for the final two days of the regular season. While the Ottawa Senators (aka the Colorado Avalanche) have locked up the best odds in the upcoming NHL Draft Lottery, the No. 2 spot is still up for grabs and only the Devils and Kings can claim it. New Jersey, at 70 points with one game remaining, is currently in the third spot, but L.A. has 69 points and two games remaining. Just a single point out of four could be enough to give the Devils the second-best odds at winning the first overall pick. The difference in odds between second place and third place is only 2%, but this year in particular the No. 2 spot has added value. The presumptive top two picks in the upcoming draft, forwards Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, are in a tier of their own. If the lottery yields results matching the final leagues standings, as is statistically the most likely outcome, there is a major difference between drafting second overall versus third. The Devils could move up into one of those top two spots regardless of their finish, but have the best chances with a Kings win on Friday or Saturday as well as their own loss in the season finale. New Jersey just won the draft lottery in 2017, moving from No. 5 to No. 1 and selection Nico Hischier helped fuel the team to a playoff appearance last year. Another elite young talent to pair with Hischier and a healthy Taylor Hall could again make the 2019-20 season a “worst-to-first” scenario for the Devils.

Pacific Notes: Canucks, Silfverberg, Ferguson, Coyotes

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After trading for New York Rangers third-string keeper Marek Mazanec yesterday, the Vancouver Canucks are returning to some semblance of a normal situation in net. The team announced that starter Jacob Markstrom has been cleared to play and will get the start tonight against the Anaheim Ducks. Mazanec will be the backup, and if Markstrom can’t hold up, could make his first NHL appearance since 2016-17 after exclusively playing in the AHL the past two years. As for Michael DiPietro, the young prospect is on his way back to the OHL’s Ottawa 67’s, as his emergency loan has come to an end. DiPietro allowed seven goals on 24 shots in his NHL debut on Monday, a forgettable performance that he’s unlikely to forget. Meanwhile, the team did not issue an update on backup Thatcher Demko, Vancouver’s other top young goalie, who is currently on the injured reserve with a knee injury. If the Canucks hope to sneak into the playoffs, they’ll likely need both Markstrom and Demko to get healthy for the stretch run.

  • As usual, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman provided plenty of insider information in his latest edition of “31 Thoughts”. An encouraging note for Ducks fans, especially during a stretch without much good news in Anaheim, is that Friedman claims term is the only thing separating the team and winger Jakob Silfverberg from agreeing to a contract extension. While that means the two sides are still apart, it was cap hit that was the major roadblock to a new deal. Due to Anaheim’s overall lack of cap space and the restrictions of “tagging”, many speculated that Silfverberg’s desired salary would be too difficult for the Ducks to manage. The fact that term remains “the final hurdle”, as Friedman puts it, would seem to indicate that the dollars have been agreed upon and a the odds of a new contract getting done are better than not.
  • Friedman adds a new name to the list of Edmonton Oilers GM candidates. While he maintains that Vegas Golden Knights AGM Kelly McCrimmon and former Toronto Maple Leafs executive Mark Hunter remain popular options, he also adds Boston Bruins AGM John Ferguson Jr. to the mix. Friedman notes that interim GM Keith Gretzky, who appears to have some job insurance moving forward even if it isn’t at his current position, has experience working with Ferguson from his own time with the Bruins. Ferguson is a well-respected NHL executive who previously served as the Toronto Maple Leafs GM from 2003 to 2008 and has been with the Bruins for the better part of this decade. This also isn’t the first time that his name has come up in regards to an opening; Ferguson was considered a candidate to run the Vegas Golden Knights and has already been considered a candidate to do the same with the Seattle expansion team. However, GM jobs don’t come around very often and, like McCrimmon, if Ferguson is offered the Edmonton job, is unlikely to pass in favor of waiting on Seattle.
  • One last interesting note comes in regards to the Arizona Coyotes. Friedman points out that the Coyotes are struggling with so many injuries that their AHL affiliate, the Tuscon Roadrunners, could only ice a lineup of 17 skaters last night, playing a man down. CapFriendly’s depth chart shows that only 15 skaters under contract with the ’Yotes, including just nine forwards, are currently in Tuscon, as Arizona needs all the help they can get at the NHL level. Fortunately, Mario Kempe, Brad Richardson, and Christian Dvorak are all getting close to a return, while Michael Grabner and Jason Demers returned to practice today writes The Athletic’s Catherine Silverman. The closer the Coyotes get to full health this season, the better their chances are to push for a playoff spot in the tight Western Conference race.

Arizona Coyotes Acquire Jordan Weal

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A day of minor trades continues with a somewhat more high-profile swap between the Philadelphia Flyers and Arizona Coyotes. The third deal of the day sees forward Jordan Weal heading to Arizona in exchange for a 2019 sixth-round pick and ECHL defenseman Jacob Graves, as first reported by Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek and later confirmed by the teams. Weal is an impending unrestricted free agent.

While it may seem strange that the Coyotes, just three points ahead of 30th-place Flyers in the league standings, are acquiring a rental player, one look at Arizona’s injury report will help to explain the move. The team has been without Christian Dvorak all season, lost Nick Schmaltz for the remainder of the year, have been missing Michael Grabner since early December, and today added Brad Richardson to the injured reserve. The team is sorely lacking in NHL-caliber forwards and found one in Weal for a relatively affordable price. Weal is likely to slide into a top-nine role for the Coyotes and could treat the opportunity as a tryout for a new contract, so as to avoid what might be a quiet off-season market for his services.

Weal, 26, is just two years removed from a season in which scored better than a point-per-game in the AHL for a half season and better than a half point-per-game with the Flyers for the other half. At 24, Weal hit the open market as a Group 6 UFA, but Philadelphia paid to keep him around with a two-year contract worth $1.75MM per year, despite having less than half a season of NHL experience. He has fallen short of expectations as a full-time player, recording 21 points in 69 games with the Flyers last season and just nine points through 28 games this year, serving as a frequent healthy scratch over both campaigns. Where Weal has excelled this season is at the face-off dot, with an impressive 59.7% mark. He has also been a strong possession player, holding a 54.8 Corsi For % that trailed only Claude Giroux and Travis Konecny among Flyers forwards. The scoring has simply been lacking from Weal, an issue that the struggling Flyers could not afford to let him work out. While Weal may seem like just another depth piece on a Coyotes team filled with similar players, GM John Chayka will likely take a look at him in a variety of situations to see whether or not he would be a long-term fit in Arizona. Don’t rule out the possibility that he could be traded again before the deadline – or waived – if he gets off to a poor start. Regardless, Weal certainly wasn’t going to be a fit moving forward in Philadelphia and new GM Chuck Fletcher will be happy to land a draft pick for a player he planned to let walk.

Free Agent Rumor Round-Up: Roussel, Calvert, Hickey, Rieder, Perron, And More

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The Vancouver Canucks are closing in on an agreement with one of their top free agent targets. After Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman revealed that the Canucks were talking to two-way winger Antoine Roussel, colleague Rick Dhaliwal did some digging and discovered that the two sides were close on a long-term deal. Dhaliwal expects Roussel to sign a four-year deal worth more than $3MM per year with Vancouver. The former Dallas Stars brings grit and energy to the Canucks and has previously teased 30+ point potential. If the 28-year-old Frenchman can reach those levels of production while maintaining his notorious physical game, this could be a great signing by GM Jim Benning. However, it is well above what many would have expected Roussel to sign in both term and salary and could just as well be a disaster for Vancouver. Roussel is ranked 38th on PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents list with an estimated contract of two years and just over $2MM AAV.

[RELATED: PHR’s 2018 Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents]

  • Friedman has also linked the Colorado Avalanche and forward Matt Calvert. TSN’s Darren Dreger is among a few sources who have also heard about that pairing. Calvert, 28, has played his entire career for the Columbus Blue Jackets, but Dreger seems convinced that he is definitely on the move. The versatile, two-way winger would be a nice fit as a bottom-six regular who can fill gaps in the top-six, much like the role that Blake Comeau played for the team.
  • Dreger also reports that interest is high in defenseman Thomas Hickey. A shallow defense market is likely boosting the value of the serviceable defenseman, who is a tough defensive match-up and a dangerous off-the-puck play-maker, but prone to mistake when moving play. Many speculated that the Islanders would turn their attention to re-signing Hickey once the John Tavares situation had sorted itself out, but with Tavares dragging his feet and Hickey in talks with numerous teams, New York may not get that chance. We predicted that Hickey would land with the Montreal Canadiens on a multi-year deal in PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.
  • Another player getting a lot of attention is winger Tobias Rieder and the status of his suitors is changing quickly as the price rises. Just earlier today, the Vancouver Canucks were the first team confirmed to be in on Rieder and by now that list has increased dramatically. TSN’s Ryan Rishaug reports that the Calgary Flames, Montreal Canadiens, and Ottawa Senators are also in the running and that the price has gotten so high as to drive the Edmonton Oilers out of the bidding. The Athletic’s Craig Custance confirms the interest from the Canucks, Flames, and Habs and adds the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers to the list of interested parties. All this for a player that the Los Angeles Kings deemed unworthy of a qualifying offer.
  • As expected, David Perron is also one of the hottest names on the free agent market and his former team, the Vegas Golden Knights, are seemingly out of the running. Friedman calls it “very unlikely” that Perron returns to Las Vegas, where he set a career high with 66 points this season. For an idea on the price for Perron, he landed at #5 on the PHR Top 50 Free Agents list with a projected six-year, $32MM contract, which could be a conservative guess.
  • One team that is somewhat surprisingly in talks with Perron is Arizona. Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports details the off-season so far from the Coyotes and lists Perron, James van Riemsdyk, and Michael Grabner as Arizona’s top targets. Morgan also says that the team has not ruled out bringing back veteran forward Brad Richardson as well.
  • The Boston Bruins are moving on from Anton Khudobin and reportedly working fast to find his replacement. Beat writer Matt Kalman and The Boston Globe’s Kevin-Paul Dupont both hear that the team is very interested in Kari Lehtonen as the new backup to Tuukka Rask. With many talented goalies on the market, Lehtonen has flown under the radar somewhat despite incredibly comparable numbers to Khudobin in more starts and superior numbers to the likes of Jonathan Bernier, Cam Ward, Robin Lehner and others. Lehtonen also had the highest Quality Start rate of any of that group in 2017-18. Even here at PHR we may have underestimated Lehtonen, making him our sixth-best goalie among the Top 50 free agents.
  • Unsurprisingly, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun notes that the Washington Capitals have checked in with defenseman Brooks Orpik. A veteran leader and key contributor to their Stanley Cup run, the Capitals faced little choice but to trade Orpik away earlier this off-season in order to clear cap space to maintain their championship roster. Now that he has subsequently been bought out by the Colorado Avalanche, Orpik is fair game and could return to D.C. at a much more affordable rate. However, LeBrun warns that other teams are also in the running and Orpik may not take a discount rate in Washington over more legitimate offers.

 

Coyotes Notes: Perlini, Richardson, Draft Options

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While many would be quick to call Clayton Keller the Arizona Coyotes’ best young player, his teammate has quietly taken up the mantle of being the franchise’s all-time best young goal-scorer. AZSports’ Craig Morgan noted last night that Brendan Perlini’s 28th career goal in his 100th NHL game is most among ’Yotes alums in their first 100 games. Perlini passed up Peter Mueller, who had 27 in 100, a player who burned bright, but burned out young and was out of the NHL after his first five seasons. Arizona surely hopes that Perlini has more longevity and would especially be excited if he kept up his current level of play, having scored a goal in four straight games. Meanwhile, Keller surely has his eye on soon taking Perlini’s title; the 19-year-old has 14 goals through his first 53 games, so he’ll have to pick up the pace this season into next season.

  • Morgan was also the first to announce that Brad Richardson would not return to last night’s game after suffering an upper-body injury. There has been no update on Richardson’s status yet, but it would be no surprise if the veteran forward is out of the lineup for a substantial amount of time yet again. Richardson has had a tough go of it lately, missing six games due to injury this year after missing a whopping 66 games last year. Richardson has also struggled to produce with only nine points through 44 games. Nevertheless, the Coyotes are surely hoping that Richardson makes a speedy recovery with the NHL Trade Deadline fast approaching. With so few pending unrestricted free agents on the roster – Richardson, Antti Raanta, Luke Schenn, Zac Rinaldo – GM John Chayka would like to be able to move out as many as possible, unless his plan is make some larger deals involving his plethora of younger players.
  • In reality, the 2017-18 has long been over for the Coyotes and their next event of note is the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. Though the lottery could throw a wrench in their plans, Arizona is in the best position of any team to land the prize of the draft, Swedish phenom Rasmus Dahlin. TSN’s Bob McKenzie released his Mid-Season Draft Rankings today, in which he calls this the “Rasmus Dahlin draft” and makes of note of consensus that no player has a chance to go first overall besides the dynamic defenseman. With some doubt over the future of All-Star Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Chayka would like nothing more than to select a potential replacement in Dahlin. At the very least, the worst record in the NHL will guarantee the Coyotes a top-four pick and, as McKenzie specifies, one of the trio of forwards that make up the next tier of elite prospects behind Dahlin – Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, and Brady Tkachuk.

NHL Trade Deadline Trends

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With two (albeit minor) trades today, it seems as if the annual pre-NHL Trade Deadline flurry of activity is underway. NHL analytics guru Rob Vollman was ready for it yesterday, releasing some new, interesting statistics related to trade deadline trends. With the last day to make deals this season coming up on Monday, February 26th, these correlations may indicate what we can expect in the coming weeks.

Vollman’s first chart shows the distribution of deals made in the month leading up to the trade deadline. On average, there have been close to 41 trades in the month leading up to the deadline since 2005. There tends to be nearly a trade per day beginning 30 days prior to the deadline and going throughout the month, with the numbers increasing exponentially in the final three days. In 2016-17, there were five trades made in the month of January, which slowed down the early February pace somewhat. However, deals came with a more torrid pace beginning in the middle of the month, leading to a total of 41 trades made in the month – on par with the trend over the last decade plus. On average, one can expect 12 trades over the next month leading up to 29 swaps over the final two days prior and deadline day combined. On the 26th, it would be reasonable to see more than 20 trades made, as that has been the trend of late.

So who will be making those deals? Vollman’s second chart shows the frequency that each NHL team has made trades since 2005. The Anaheim Ducks stand out as having made far more deals in that time than any other team in the league, including quite a few deals prior to deadline day. Could the Ducks make a deal this deadline season? Of course, although GM Bob Murray and company may need some more clarity on the Western Conference playoff picture before deciding to be buyers or sellers. The last-place Arizona Coyotes, also common deal-makers, aren’t in that position, but with no impending free agent rentals outside of Brad Richardson, Luke Schenn, and maybe Antti Raanta, there may not be many trade options for GM John Chayka unless he makes some bigger splashes. Eastern Conference contenders Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Washington have all been known to make a few trades, so don’t expect anything different this season. On the other hand, the Red Wings, Stars, and Predators have a history of being hesitant to make moves. If Dallas does make a deal, expect it to come early, as they have far more trades made earlier in February than at the deadline. Conversely, the Avalanche often wait until the last minute, which should be no different in 2017-18 with Colorado being a team that could benefit from a clear look at the Western race.

The trading mania is about to begin, so even if John Ramage, Jeff Zatkoff, or even Anthony Duclair don’t interest you, don’t fret, more moves are on their way.

Trade Rumors: Coyotes, Canadiens, Jets, Islanders

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In all likelihood, the recent three-way trade that sent Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators and Kyle Turris to the Nashville Predators will be the biggest deal made this season. Yet, that hasn’t stopped the whispers of an bustling trade market, especially this early in the season. At the quarter pole of the 2017-18 campaign, it’s been an unpredictable season, prompting an unexpectedly active market. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch has had his ear to the ground and has plenty of input on who the buyers and sellers are right now:

  • To no one’s surprise, Garrioch states that the floundering Arizona Coyotes are “willing to talk about pretty much every player on their roster”. That of course doesn’t include Calder-hopeful Clayton Keller or many of their other 21-and-under starters, but the rest of the roster may as well be up for grabs. The big off-season acquisitions of Derek Stepan, Antti Raanta, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers have done nothing to change this team’s ability to win hockey games. At some point, GM John Chayka is going to go from “up-and-coming” to “up-and-went” and that pressure could force him to make some major moves as he rethinks his rebuild. While impending UFA’s like Raanta, Brad Richardson, and Luke Schenn would be the easiest pieces to move, the stakes are high for a Coyotes team whose core has done next to nothing for years and key pieces like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, and Tobias Rieder could soon be on their way out.
  • Perhaps the only team more disappointing than Arizona in 2017-18 is the farthest team from them across North America: the Montreal Canadiens. Under new head coach Claude Julien, the Habs have fallen apart. However, the newly-signed coach isn’t going anywhere, putting GM Marc Bergevin, who Garrioch calls ” the NHL’s most active GM”, on the hot seat. Bergevin may be willing to make a big move to save his job, and of course the first name that comes to mind is young forward Alex Galchenyuk, who has predictably struggled under the defense-first Julien. Galchenyuk seems lost in Montreal, without an identifiable position, role, or spot in the lineup, and could use a change of scenery. However, he is not wholly to blame for the Canadiens’ struggles. Tomas Plekanec has long been on the block and if the team truly commits to a rebuild, big names like Max Pacioretty, Shea Weber, and (if anyone is willing to take on his monstrous new contract) even Carey Price could soon join the list.
  • Garrioch mentions both the Winnipeg Jets and New York Islanders as possible sellers, but given the surprising success of both clubs thus far, neither is likely rushing to trade pieces away unless they can make their teams better this season. Impending Jets UFA’s Shawn Matthias and Matt Hendricks may draw interest, but if Winnipeg is in playoff position come deadline time, they would want veteran depth for themselves. It seems more likely that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff could use his overflow of young forwards like Marko Dano, Joel Armia, Andrew Copp, Adam Lowry, or Brandon Tanev as trade bait to bring in another top-six forward for a team that doesn’t shoot the puck nearly enough. As for the Islanders, Garrioch singles out first-time UFA Calvin de Haan as the player to watch. Yet, de Haan is one of, if not the best shot-blocker in the NHL, can play major minutes, and is reliable in both ends. If the Isles can resign him, wouldn’t they? Obviously, John Tavares is the main focus and the team thinks highly of younger options like Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, but the loss of a player like de Haan, especially with Travis Hamonic now in Calgary, could cripple a playoff-bound Islanders squad. Odds are de Haan sticks around, at least as long as New York remains playoff-bound.
  • So who’s looking? Garrioch mentions the Florida Panthers, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets, and the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins as suitors for forward help, with the Dallas Stars potentially looking to make another big blue line trade to turn their season around. With that many buyers and several disappointed sellers, the trade NHL trade market may not wait until 2018 to heat up.

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