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Trade Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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Although we’re less than three months into the season, the trade deadline is already just three weeks away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Nashville Predators.

The Nashville Predators are sellers. In fact, the Predators being ready to gut their roster has been one of the more talked-about storylines of the 2020-21 season. Ask any media personality in hockey and they will say that Nashville is shopping this guy and listening on that guy. It seems that almost anyone on the roster could be available as the Predators have been labeled as disappointments.

Yet, hidden behind the headlines, the outrage level likely isn’t that high internally in Nashville. Quietly, the team is actually playing quite well of late. Since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman proclaimed last month that there were only three untouchables on the entire Nashville roster, the team has gone 10-7-1 including four wins in a row and wins in six of their past seven. The team is up to .500 on the season and that could be enough to sneak into the postseason in the Central Division’s final spot. In their history, the Predators have never really torn apart their roster and restarted and it seems unlikely that they have the proper motivation to do so now.

With that said, this is still not where the 2017 Western Conference Champions thought they would be at this point in time. The season results have gotten worse each year since their Stanley Cup Final appearance: a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round loss in 2019, and a failure to even advance beyond the qualifying round last year. Now, there is a real possibility that the Predators could miss the playoffs entirely this season. A team loaded with depth and numerous talented veterans, Nashville should be better and it is somewhat inexplicable why they aren’t. As a result, there needs to be a shake-up. However, given the recent improvements, the Predators’ approach to the deadline is likely to be less fire sale and more strategic dealing, especially in a buyer’s market.

Record

17-17-1, .500, T-5th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$2.46MM in full-season space ($10.97MM at the trade deadline), 0/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, COL 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th
2022: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

It is probably easier to start with the players who aren’t for sale. As Friedman noted back in February, that definitely includes career Predator goaltender Pekka Rinne, who is in the last year of his contract and quite possibly his career and is being honored with the ability to go out on his own terms (and a No-Movement Clause helps). It also included cornerstone defensemen Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. At the time, this was the extent of Friedman’s list. He even noted that young defender Dante Fabbro or top scorer Filip Forsberg could be available at the right price. Now, that is almost certainly not the case. Friedman has also since flipped on Ellis’ availability, but he should be safe. Nashville also has no reason to trade young impact players, such as off-season acquisition Luke Kunin, recent first-round pick Eeli Tolvanen, collegiate standouts Rem Pitlick and Jeremy Davies, and impressive goaltender Juuse Saros.

Beyond that group, it probably isn’t a stretch to say that GM David Poile will at least listen to offers for anyone else on the roster. Part of that is due to the Predators’ current situation and the slim likelihood that they can contend this season, even if they do sneak into the playoffs in a top-heavy Central Division. This means that they receive no benefit from hanging on to their impending unrestricted free agents. Mikael Granlund is the top trade chip among this group. The skilled forward was a late off-season signing and somewhat of an afterthought heading into the season, but leads all Nashville forwards in time on ice, proving himself to be an invaluable piece. Other teams have taken notice as well, as Granlund’s name has been floated on the rumor mill more than a few times and has been linked to several contenders. Another late off-season addition, Erik Haula will also be for sale. A similarly versatile forward to Granlund, Haula hasn’t made as much of an impact but has previously proven to be an asset in the right system. Among other expiring contracts, veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa, if healthy by the deadline, could draw some interest at a cheap price point. Despite their recent success, the Predators only reason for not trading any of these potential rentals would be if they had interest in an extension and only Granlund, their most valuable piece, would conceivably fit the bill.

The other reason why Poile is open to moving other players off his roster, those with term on their contracts, is partially due to the impending Expansion Draft. Whether the Predators choose to use the standard 7-3 protection scheme or instead choose the 8-skater scheme in order to protect Mattias Ekholm, they will be exposing key players either way. Ironically, the Predators’ impressive depth on paper is not doing much to help them this season but will hurt them in expansion. Ekholm is at the top of most trade boards as a name likely to move before the deadline. The Seattle Kraken would not hesitate to claim him if he was to be left exposed in the draft and the Predators will not give him up for free when he can command a strong return on the trade market as a balanced, two-way defenseman with an affordable contract and a reliable top-four track record. Yet, even if Ekholm is traded and the Predators can protect three defensemen and seven forwards, they still face liability up front. Nashville simply has too many valuable names at forward, even if many are underachieving. Are they really ready to let expensive, underwhelming former stars like Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene go for free? Could they really leave career Predators like Calle Jarnkrok or Colton Sissons exposed? And they also need to consider protecting younger names like Pitlick an Yakov Trenin who could be looked upon to take on larger roles moving forward. There are simply too many names in Nashville for a valuable player not to be left exposed, so why not listen to trade offers instead. Moving Johansen or Duchene this season is unlikely due to cap implications, but Jarnkrok, Sissons, Rocco Grimaldi, and Nick Cousins are all for sale at the right price. The difference between last month’s mindset and the current strategy is likely that only one or two of the aforementioned players are likely to go, rather than the whole lot in a fire sale.

The x-factor for Nashville at the deadline is forward Viktor Arvidsson. By no means does the team have to trade the talented winger, who will have a safe spot on their protection list come Expansion Draft time if he is still on the roster. However, Arvidsson has been in decline for two seasons now – an unexpected regression for a 27-year-old. Arvidsson is still relied upon to play a key top-six role for Nashville, but is failing to produce like he did as a back-to-back 61-point player just a few years ago. On one hand, the Predators would be selling low on the skilled forward, who should still have plenty left in the tank. On the other hand, moving Arvidsson if they are happy with an offer could be the reality check that the team desperately needs. If the trade market remains underwhelming though, as many expect, it is more likely that Arvidsson stays put for now. Trading him at his lowest point while the team is finally gaining traction is not the shake up they need.

Others to Watch For: D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, 2022 UFA), D Matt Benning ($1MM, 2022 UFA), G Kasimir Kaskisuo ($700K, UFA), D Ben Harpur ($700K, RFA), F Michael McCarron ($700K, RFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Despite several years in a row of regular season success, the Predators have managed to build themselves a nice pipeline of talent. At every position, they have multiple players who project to be good NHLers. The problem with their current pipeline is that it is getting a little old. Some of their best prospects are already in the pros, bouncing between the NHL and AHL or locked into contracts overseas. Many others are collegiate players on the older side for prospects. Nashville needs some fresh blood and the best way to do that is to add draft picks. Though they have their full complement of draft picks this year (minus a seventh-rounder), draft pick packages will be the way to go as they move on from current roster players.

2) Top-Four Left-Handed Prospect Defenseman – If available, the one area that Nashville could target a specific player rather than load up on draft picks is at left defense. With Ekholm looking like his time in Nashville is winding down and some concern over whether Boston University defenseman David Farrance will sign with the team or instead opt for free agency, there could be a major hole in the top-four at LHD. The Predators have the cap space to find a capable free agent stopgap, but could use a long-term plan. Young pros Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Frederic Allard are all right-handed and Davies looks like a solid NHLer but is already 24 and lacks top-pair upside. In the pipeline, Marc Del Gaizo is an intriguing prospect but more likely a bottom-pair defender. No one else even projects to be an NHLer. The Predators need to reload on the blue line, and can do that through the draft, but if a top young left-handed defense prospect is offered up, they would be wise to consider. To a lesser extent, center is also a position that could become a need sooner rather than later in Nashville as many of the Predators’ top forward prospects are not necessarily projected to play center at the top level. A natural pivot with top-six upside would be a nice addition, but isn’t as pressing as left defense and could be more easily found where the team expects to pick in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

Latest On Nashville Predators Deadline Chips

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The Nashville Predators have won three of their last four games and had a familiar face on the ice at this morning’s skate, as injured captain Roman Josi joined the group while working his way back. The team also had pending unrestricted free agent Mikael Granlund on the ice after he missed the team’s game on Sunday, but still absent were the group of Matt Duchene, Luke Kunin, and Ryan Ellis.

Ellis specifically is not close to a return, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be making headlines. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet opened his 31 Thoughts column today with a note on the veteran defenseman, explaining that he is no longer off-limits in trade talks. Ellis was one of three players that Friedman listed as an “untouchable” when discussing the Predators last month, but now writes that “something’s made the Predators think.”

Specifically, Friedman speculates that the Philadelphia Flyers could be a fit for Ellis, given how long he could be an impact player for them. The recently-turned 30-year-old is under contract through the 2026-27 season at a cap hit of $6.25MM, more than reasonable when Ellis is playing at his full capacity. There aren’t a ton of defensemen that can impact the game as much as Ellis when healthy, as shown by his outstanding offensive and defensive numbers.

Since his first full season in 2013-14, Ellis ranks 30th among defensemen in scoring with 244 points, fifth in plus/minus at +103, and has averaged more than 21 minutes a night playing on both the powerplay and penalty kill. If possession statistics are more your taste, his 56.5% on-ice GF% puts him 10th among defensemen with at least 100 games played, and he comes in at 27th in CF% at 52.7%, again among those with at least 100 games played since 2013-14.

In short, Ellis is a true top-pairing defenseman that could be a game-changer for many teams around the league, though it’s not clear what kind of package would be needed to pry him out of Nashville. Even his inclusion in trade talks is surprising and may point to a more widespread rebuild plan for Predators GM David Poile.

Also mentioned in Friedman’s piece is Granlund, who continues to be among the top rental options on the market, and Calle Jarnkrok, who still has a year left on his contract. The 29-year-old Jarnkrok was one of the long-term deals that paid off for Poile, who signed him to a six-year, $12MM deal in 2016 after just 167 NHL games. While he has never really developed into a top scoring option, Jarnkork has chipped in double-digit goal totals in each season of the deal and has 15 points in 26 games this season. For just a $2MM cap hit, that kind of scoring depth is valuable, especially when it is versatile enough to play center or the wing.

Mattias Ekholm is the other big name available in Nashville, and though Ellis steals Friedman’s headline, the Sportsnet scribe tucks in another note. Other executives around the league believe that Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin has “made a push” for Ekholm, despite his pleas to the media that it will be a quiet deadline for the club. Ekholm has been linked to almost every contender in the league at one point or another, given how effective he is for a relatively low cap hit. The 30-year-old is under contract through next season at a $3.75MM cap hit, though is owed $5MM in actual salary for 2021-22.

Even with several obstacles in the way of trades this season, it seems to be shaping up as an exciting deadline for the Predators if they want it to be.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Bruins, Jets Among Teams Interested In Mattias Ekholm

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One of the top prizes of the trade deadline – if he ultimately gets dealt – is Predators defenseman Mattias Ekholm.  A top-four blueliner is hard to come by at this time of year, especially one that’s on an affordable contract for next season.  Accordingly, there will be no shortage of suitors, even in a salary cap environment where most contenders can’t afford to add anyone of consequence without offsetting money.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports in his latest 31 Thoughts column that the Jets and Bruins are among the teams that are interested in Ekholm’s services.

The 30-year-old has been a minutes-eater for several seasons now, logging more than 23 per night over each of the last four seasons, a number that hasn’t dipped much this year as Ekholm is at 22:18 per game in 2020-21.  He’s playing at a 33-point pace offensively, a mark that he has reached in four of the last five seasons as well.  Often matched against top lines from other teams, he’s someone that can conceivably slot onto the top pairing which will have many contenders intrigued.

The easy parallel to draw in terms of what the cost will be is Toronto’s acquisition of Jake Muzzin two years ago.  Muzzin’s contract situation was similar to Ekholm’s deal ($3.75MM this season and next before being UFA-eligible) and Friedman notes that Nashville is using Muzzin’s return as a template for these talks.  That would include a first-round pick plus a pair of quality prospects.

There is definitely a case to be made for both Boston and Winnipeg to pay that price.  The Bruins never replaced Torey Krug who left for St. Louis in free agency last summer which has left a vacancy in their top-four.  Their younger blueliners have held their own in that role but if they have eyes on contending, they’d be in better shape with a proven veteran in that spot.  Jarred Tinordi, a recent waiver claim to cover for some recent injuries, suffered an upper-body injury tonight against Pittsburgh as well.

As for the Jets, defense has been a considerable weakness for them the last couple of years with the exodus of talent they’ve had.  Two years ago, Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers, and Ben Chiarot were all fixtures on their back end but all four are gone now with Neal Pionk being the only impact blueliner added since then.  Ekholm would form a nice one-two punch on the left side with Josh Morrissey and give that unit some stability.  Of course, there is the quarantine period to contend with but GM Kevin Cheveldayoff indicated yesterday that it’s not a concern for him; they’ve already made one big move this season with that in place as it is.

Ekholm has made it known that his preference is to remain in Nashville but as Friedman puts it, the veteran may be the ‘belle of the trading ball’ at the moment.  If that’s the case, GM David Poile may eventually be offered an offer that’s too good to pass up on between now and next month’s trade deadline which means the defenseman may not get his wish.

Mattias Ekholm Hoping To Remain With Predators

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With the Predators struggling in the standings (sixth in the Central Division) and a rapidly-growing list of injuries to key players, defenseman Mattias Ekholm has emerged as a potential trade piece.  But if the 30-year-old has his way, he’ll be staying with Nashville as he told Adam Vingan of The Athletic (subscription link) that his preference is to remain with the team that drafted back in the fourth round (102nd overall) in 2009.

It’s quite understandable as to why he’ll be highly sought-after.  Top-four blueliners are hard to come by at this time of year and Ekholm is certainly that.  He has logged heavy minutes, playing more than 23 per game in each of the last four seasons and over 21 this year.  Offensively, he has been quietly consistent, picking up 33 points or more in four of the last five years and with four goals and five assists in 18 games this season, he’d be above that pace if this was a full schedule.  And of course, in his own end, he has been one of Nashville’s top defensive weapons, often spending time against opposing top players.

At a time where teams are having even more difficulty fitting extra money on the books, Ekholm is certainly quite affordable.  Carrying just a $3.75MM AAV for this season and next, he’s on a below-market deal although in this environment, it’s worth noting that his price tag in salary dollars jumps to $5MM next season.

The obvious comparable in terms of a trade would be the Kings-Maple Leafs swap involving Jake Muzzin in 2019 with the blueliner going to Toronto for a first-round pick and a pair of prospects.  Muzzin carried a similar price tag ($4MM), was the same age, and had the same amount of term remaining on the deal.

However, there are a couple of different factors at play.  More teams could afford Muzzin then than can afford Ekholm now unless Nashville shows a desire to take a sizable contract back as part of the return.  Of course, there is also expansion to consider.  Ekholm would almost certainly be a must-protect player so the acquiring team would have to be comfortable with not only losing the elements required for any trade but also the opportunity cost of not protecting a different defender has to also be taken into consideration.

While the 2020-21 season is going up in smoke in a hurry for the Preds, this isn’t a situation where GM David Poile is going to be forced into making a move.  Nashville can safely protect Ekholm from Seattle and because he has another year on his deal, Poile can wait until the summer to see what the offers look like when teams more have financial flexibility.  Of course, Ekholm’s preference appears to be that no move is made at all.

Trade Rumors: Predators, Fleury, Vesey

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While Mattias Ekholm may be the name that teams are clamoring over right now, whether he’s actually available or not, he isn’t the only Predator that might eventually be on the block. Many, including top analysts Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet and Pierre LeBrun of TSN, believe that the Predators are quickly approaching the point of no return this season and will begin to move players shortly. Despite a talented roster on paper, Nashville sits in seventh place in the Central Division with a points percentage of just .400 through 15 games. More than a quarter of the way through their campaign, the Predators face a slim chance of turning it around and making the playoffs, especially in this season’s difficult makeshift format.

While Nashville may not quite be ready to fully blow up their roster, both Friedman and LeBrun agree that impending free agents Mikael Granlund and Erik Haula are as good as gone. Both had significant interest on the open market late into this past off-season before deciding on Nashville and that interest should remain. Granlund especially has performed well – he’s arguably Nashville’s second-best forward thus far – and should net a decent return. That may not be the end of the list, though. Veterans Brad Richardson and Luca Sbisa may also hold rental value, while term forwards like Nick Cousins, a disappointment in his first season with Nashville, Rocco Grimaldi, or Calle Jarnkrok could also find themselves on the block. Friedman notes that top-six centers Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen may be made available, but given their massive contracts and lacking production in the current flat cap climate, interest will likely be slim. Their potential availability is still a sign that the Predators could be considering a major shake-up nonetheless.

  • Although they considered moving him this off-season in an effort to open up cap space, Friedman does not believe that Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is still available. The fan favorite has been stellar this season, especially in light of the struggles of “starter” Robin Lehner. While Lehner has battled injury and inconsistency, Fleury has posted a .937 save percentage and 1.56 GAA, and most importantly seven wins through nine starts. He has been a major reason why the Knights are off to such a hot start; a start that likely would have gone the other way had Fleury been moved this off-season leaving the frustrated Lehner as the only experienced goalie on the roster. So while Fleury remains an aging asset on an expensive contract who at least had the appearance of only being a backup moving forward, he has proven himself invaluable to Vegas. With a number of teams troubled in net, including Fleury’s former Pittsburgh Penguins, there is a renewed interest in taking on Fleury’s contract in order to take advantage of his current hot streak, but don’t expect the Golden Knights to give him up this season.
  • Following their acquisition of Alex Galchenyuk, Friedman wonders if the Jimmy Vesey experiment has already come to an end in Toronto. The free agent addition has just three points in 16 games despite having been given ample opportunity to produce. Given the Maple Leafs’ tight salary cap situation, even with a pair of players currently on Long-Term Injured Reserve, Toronto has to be measured in every roster decision. Once Wayne Simmonds and Jack Campbell return to health and especially if Galchenyuk has earned a role in the starting lineup by that time, the team likely will not have room to carry Vesey, even at just $900K against the cap. An affordable (to most) impending free agent with size and goal-scoring ability, it seems likely that someone would be willing to give Vesey another shot, especially if they can get him for free on waivers. If the Maple Leafs feel that Vesey will not clear, the countdown may have already begun for the team to make a trade before he is lost for nothing on the waiver wire.

Teams Hoping Mattias Ekholm Hits Trade Market

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The Nashville Predators are now 6-9 on the season and have a goal differential of -16. That last number is third-worst in the NHL, ahead of only the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators, meaning the Predators might actually be lucky to have the wins they do. It’s no surprise that trade speculation has started to swirl around the team with The Athletic’s Adam Vignan examining the potential return for five players should Nashville decide to sell.

The top name on that list is Mattias Ekholm, and while it might seem unlikely that the Predators would part with the top-four defenseman at first glance, that won’t stop teams from calling. Vignan was told by one scout that Ekholm “would draw a lot of interest” and colleague Pierre LeBrun expanded on that idea on TSN’s Insider Trading:

There’s a more intriguing name when I talk to teams around the league that they hope will be on the market—and I think there is an absolute solid chance that the Predators at least listen— top-four defenseman Mattias Ekholm, who has been a long-standing member of that organization.

LeBrun does explain that the smoke around Ekholm’s name could be the Predators just testing the market to gauge potential returns, but if he does hit the market you can bet there would be plenty of teams intrigued.

Ekholm recently suffered a lower-body injury and is listed as week-to-week for the Predators.

The first thing that pops off the page when considering Ekholm has to be his contract, which carries a $3.75MM cap hit through the end of next season. That number is affordable (if not downright cheap) considering versatile Ekholm has been throughout his career. Now 30, he’s played in 550 career games and posted at least 33 points in four of the last five seasons. In 2018-19, Ekholm even finished tenth in Norris Trophy voting after setting a career-high of 44 points in 80 games.

An all-situations contributor, pretty much every team in the league could plug him in somewhere to help their playoff chances. The fact that you would get him for an additional season would only be more valuable. Comparisons were made by both Vignan and LeBrun to Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez, two other top-four defensemen traded in recent years with some term left on their deals.

In 2019, Muzzin cost the Toronto Maple Leafs a first-round pick and two prospects. He came with a $4MM cap hit and another year on his deal, which was ultimately extended even further by Toronto. Last year, Martinez was acquired by the Vegas Golden Knights for two second-round picks. He too had an extra year on his deal and carries a $4MM cap hit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Nashville Predators Place Mattias Ekholm On IR

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The Nashville Predators will be without one of their top defensemen for the time being. The club has announced that Mattias Ekholm has been placed on injured reserve with an undisclosed lower-body injury. Additionally, checking forward Mathieu Olivier has also been transferred to the injured reserve. Taking their places on the active roster in the meantime are defenseman Ben Harpur and young forward Eeli Tolvanen. 

The Predators will be without Ekholm for at least ten days from his most recent appearance on Tuesday as a result of moving him to IR. However, without more intel on the injury or a timeframe for his return, the talented two-way defender could be out beyond that date. Ekholm actually missed the Predators’ first game against the Tampa Bay Lightning this week, on Monday, February 8th, but returned to the roster the next night for the second game of the back-to-back. It’s possible that he reaggravated the injury or that this has simply been a lingering issue. Either way, the Predators will have to cope with losing Ekholm, a stalwart on the back end for eight years now.

This is an important season for both the Predators and Ekholm and this injury absence puts pressure on both. A Stanley Cup finalist in 2017, Nashville looked like they had the core to contend for years to come. Instead, it has been a steady decline of playoff failure from a second-round upset as the President’s Trophy winners in 2018 to a first-round exit in 2019 and finally a stunning qualifying round loss in 2020. Now they might simply be fighting to even qualify for the postseason this year. The Predators currently sit in seventh in the Central Division with a disappointing .385 points percentage and the third-worst goal differential in the NHL.

If Nashville needs to make major changes to get back on track, one of the key questions is whether Ekholm will be part of that future. With the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft waiting ahead, the Predators will have to decide if they want to protect seven forwards and three defensemen – likely to be Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and the future of the blue line in Dante Fabbro – leaving Ekholm exposed or whether he is worth opting for the eight-skater protection scheme which could leave some young forwards exposed. A rebuilding team might give up (or alternatively trade beforehand) a 30-year-old core defenseman rather than a promising prospect forward. So far this year, Ekholm’s per-game production and ice time are both down considerably compared to the past few years and if he has an extended injury absence or is unable to turn things around upon is return, it could certainly influence the team’s decision.

 

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,165,476 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Dante Fabbro (two years, $925K)
F Rem Pitlick (one year, $925K)
F Eeli Tolvanen (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Tolvanen: $2.85MM
Fabbro: $850K

The team has a few players with entry-level contracts who could make an immediate impact. Fabbro is the obvious one, especially after the team traded away P.K. Subban to New Jersey in a cap-saving move. Fabbro, the team’s first-round pick in 2016, finally signed in late March after three seasons at Boston University, playing in four regular season games, followed by six playoff games, combining for one goal and two points in amongst those 10 games. Now with Subban gone, the team has to hope that Fabbro will be ready to immediately take over the open top-four spot in the team’s defense. If not the team could have some issues at that spot. The team also inked Pitlick, the team’s third-rounder in 2016, after three years at the University of Minnesota. After tallying 47 goals in three years, the team hopes that Pitlick can make his mark on the team immediately.

Tolvanen, who dominated in the KHL at 18 years of age, failed to make the Predators team last year and spent most of his season with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL, scoring 15 goals and 35 points in 58 games and will try to force his way into the Predators lineup this year with a good training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikael Granlund ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($4.25MM, UFA)
D Roman Josi ($4MM, UFA)
D Dan Hamhuis ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Austin Watson ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($1MM, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($750K, UFA)
F Daniel Carr ($700K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($675K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($675K, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($667K, UFA)

The most well documented story is the Predators’ desire to lock up Josi to a long-term deal. The 29-year-old has proven to be an excellent defensive blueliner, but has also shown off quite a bit of offense, putting up 40 or more points for the past six seasons, including a 56-point performance last year. Josi has indicated that he wants to stay in Nashville, but evidently is waiting to see how the restricted free agent market pans out before signing any deal.

With significant cap issues coming up over the next few years, the Predators will have to make key decisions on what they want to do with Granlund and Smith. Nashville acquired Granlund at the trade deadline last year, swapping a younger Kevin Fiala for the 27-year-old, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. Granlund, who scored 47 goals in his two previous seasons, stepped back last year, scoring just 16 goals last season and only one of those in 16 games with Nashville. If Granlund can return to his 25-goal ways, the Predators are likely to find a way to keep him in the future, but another poor season could end their relationship early. Smith is a different situation. He’s been a 20-goal scorer for five of his last six seasons, but will be 31 when he signs his next deal. The question is whether the team wants to lock him up when he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Most of the other players listed here are depth options, with a number of bottom-pairing forwards and defensemen.

Two Years Remaining

G Pekka Rinne ($5MM, UFA)
F Nick Bonino ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Steven Santini ($1.42MM, RFA)

The next two years could be the final two for Rinne, who will be 38 at that time. The veteran goaltender and Vezina Trophy winner put up another impressive season last year with a 30-19-4 record and a .918 save percentage. He will likely carry the load for the next two years, but Saros, the team’s goaltender of the future, will likely see more and more games before taking over as the Predators’ No. 1 goaltender in 2021-22. Saros played 31 games last season and while posting a 2.62 GAA, he did sport a .915 save percentage and should eventually get an extension.

Bonino was brought in from Pittsburgh to be the team’s third-string center and jumpstart the team’s bottom-six. He has done that, but also has found himself dropped down to the fourth line in the meantime and at $4.1MM, that’s a lot of money to be paying a bottom-line player. The only long-term hope, is that room is made so that Bonino, who posted 17 goals and 35 points last season, can return to his third-line role eventually.

Three Years Remaining

F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)

The team has a solid bargain going with Forsberg making just $6MM per season. The Predators have gotten impressive production out of the winger, who posted 28 goals and 50 points last season (surprisingly his worst season of his career so far) and there is still hope that the 25-year-old may take his game up another notch and return to his 30-goal, 60-point mark that he has reached twice in his career or even take his game even further. However, the skilled winger remains an impressive player at a reasonable price for the next three years.

Ekholm may be the biggest bargain of the lot as the 29-year-old is one of the most underrated players in the league, showing off great defensive skill as well as posting 40 points for the first time in his career last year. Ekholm scored eight goals and 44 points last year and at under $4MM, the team has a cheap top-four player for quite a few years to come. Jarnkrok also gives the team a discounted player as the depth winger is a solid value at just $2MM per year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM through 2026-27)
F Kyle Turris ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM through 2023-24)
F Colton Sissons ($2.86MM through 2025-26)

The team had to finally pay out to get themselves the No. 2 center that they desired. They thought they did that a few years ago when the traded for Turris and extended him, but so far that match hasn’t been what the team hoped for. However, after moving out Subban, the team had enough cap room to replace him on the roster with their biggest need, which will be filled by Duchene, who should be the perfect top-six center the team has coveted for year. Duchene is coming off a 31-goal, 70-point season and if he can continue to post numbers like that should be a solid value as well at $8MM per year. Turris, on the other hand, now moves down to the third-line center position and the team has high hopes that the 30-year-old will rebound from a seven-goal, 23-point disappointment last year. However, after a solid showing at the World Championships this summer, the team hopes he can rebound.

It’s hard to believe that people talk about the Nashville defense constantly, but only one of them is signed longer than three years. However, Ellis signed his long-term deal, which looks like a bargain for the team. The 28-year-old broke 40 points for the first time in his career and with his exceptional defense, is going to be a key member of their blueline for a long time.

Johansen’s goals have been down since coming over from Columbus, but he continues to be a dominant passer and put up a career high in assists this year with 50 as well as 64 points, the second-best of his career. The 27-year-old should only get better. Arvidsson is also locked up long-term as the 26-year-old scored a career-high 34 goals last season and has proven to be a top-line winger and even looks like a bargain at $4.25MM. Sissons also was just recently signed to a long-term, seven-year contract at a low price as the team believes he should be part of their bottom-six for a long time.

 

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Ekholm
Worst Value: Turris

Looking Ahead

The Nashville Predators have been put together impressively, using their no-tax situation to their advantage as players have made it clear that they want to stay in Nashville. The team has a solid core, but after a disappointing playoffs, the team must prove that they can return to their old dominance, especially in a challenging division like the Central, and continue to be one of the top teams in the league. Adding another top-six center should help and if they can get the most out of their players, the Predators should be a dominant team for years, but if head coach Peter Laviolette can’t get some of his players to take the next step in their development, they may be in trouble too.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

IIHF Notes: Russia, Sweden, Czech Republic

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If your team has already been eliminated from the NHL playoffs or failed to get there in the first place, the upcoming IIHF World Championship is the last bit of high level hockey for the season. The 2019 tournament is shaping up to be a good one with some of the best talent on the planet facing off, and the Russian contingent has to be one of the favorites heading in.

Today, Russia announced their leadership group for the tournament by naming Ilya Kovalchuk team captain. Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin and Sergei Plotnikov have been named alternates, an impressive group with plenty of international experience. Kovalchuk served as an alternate at last year’s Olympic Games, but he’ll take over the top role given Pavel Datsyuk’s absence from the tournament.

  • Sweden continues to add firepower to their group, and have added William Nylander, Mattias Ekholm and Marcus Pettersson in addition to Elias Lindholm who was recently confirmed. Nylander was a huge part of the 2017 gold medal for Sweden, recording 14 points in 10 games—twice that of any of his teammates. The Toronto Maple Leafs forward had an extremely disappointing season but will try to get things turned around on the international stage where he has excelled in the past.
  • The Czech Republic announced today that Filip Hronek, Jakub Vrana and Dmitrij Jaskin will join their group, an interesting sight given the status of the latter two. Players rarely attend the tournament without an NHL contract in hand, and Vrana and Jaskin are both set to be restricted free agents this summer. Perhaps that means some decisions have already been made on the pair, as Vrana is expected to be signed quickly by the Capitals while Jaskin may not receive a qualifying offer. Either way, we’ll have to wait and see if they actually take part in the tournament that starts on May 10th.

PHWA Announces 2018-19 Midseason Awards

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Though they have no bearing on the eventual winners, last season the Professional Hockey Writers Association brought back their Midseason Awards to give fans an idea of who was leading the charge around the NHL at the halfway point. Today those ballots have been tallied and the midseason trophies were given out:

Hart Trophy – Most valuable player

1. Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames
3. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

Norris Trophy – Best defenseman

1. Mark Giordano, Calgary Flames
2. Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs
3. Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks

Selke Trophy – Best defensive forward

1. Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins
2. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
3. Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators

Calder Trophy – Best rookie

1. Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks
2. Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
3. Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars

Lady Byng Trophy – Sportsmanship & gentlemanly conduct

1. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
2. Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs
3. Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames

Vezina Trophy – Best goaltender

1. John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks
2. Marc-Andre Fleury, Vegas Golden Knights
3. Frederik Andersen, Toronto Maple Leafs

Jack Adams Award – Best coach

1. Barry Trotz, New York Islanders
2. Bill Peters, Calgary Flames
3. Jon Cooper, Tampa Bay Lightning

GM of the Year Award

1. Brad Treliving, Calgary Flames
2. Doug Wilson, San Jose Sharks
3. Lou Lamoriello, New York Islanders

Rod Langway Award – Best defensive defenseman

1. Mattias Ekholm, Nashville Predators
2. Mark Giordano, Calgary Flames
3. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

Comeback Player of the Year Award

1. Robin Lehner, New York Islanders
2. Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres
3. Zach Parise, Minnesota Wild

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