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Expansion Primer 2021

Pro Hockey Rumors 2021 Expansion Draft Primers

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The 2021 NHL Expansion Draft process is upon us. Rosters are frozen, protection lists are submitted, and in under 24 hours the full list of players available to the Seattle Kraken will be known ahead of Wednesday’s draft. Over the past month, Pro Hockey Rumors has previewed how the expansion process could shake out for each of the 30 teams participating, including predicting protection lists and identifying potential Kraken targets. While many of these scenarios have changed in the weeks since, capped off by a flurry of activity today, many also remain intact. As the protection list details continue to trickle in, catch up with the key decisions that each team faced in preparing for this league-altering event:

Anaheim Ducks
Arizona Coyotes
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Vancouver Canucks
Vegas Golden Knights – exempt
Washington Capitals
Winnipeg Jets

Expansion Primer: Arizona Coyotes

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the Coyotes faced an expansion draft, they ended up losing a player that they had no intention of even signing. Teemu Pulkkinen was an unsigned restricted free agent that had played just four games for the Coyotes at the end of the 2016-17 season. He was grabbed by Vegas and signed to a one-year deal, but spent the entire season in the minor leagues before going to the KHL. In retrospect, Brad Richardson likely should have been the Golden Knights pick, but even that certainly wouldn’t have pushed the needle very much for them. This time around they are in a similar situation, though there may be a couple of names more interesting to the Kraken than Pulkkinen ever was to Vegas.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Clayton Keller, Phil Kessel (NMC), Nick Schmaltz, Christian Dvorak, Tyler Pitlick, Lawson Crouse, Johan Larsson, Christian Fischer, Brayden Burke, Conor Garland, Tyler Steenbergen, John Hayden, Dryden Hunt, Blake Speers, Lane Pederson, Frederik Gauthier

Defense:

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jakob Chychrun, Ilya Lyubushkin, Kyle Capobianco, Cam Dineen, Dysin Mayo, Vili Saarijarvi

Goalies:

Darcy Kuemper, Adin Hill, Marek Langhamer

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Derick Brassard, F Michael Bunting, D Alex Goligoski, D Niklas Hjalmarsson, D Jason Demers, D Jordan Oesterle, G Antti Raanta

Notable Exemptions

F Barrett Hayton, D Victor Soderstrom, G Ivan Prosvetov

Key Decisions

With so many unrestricted free agents coming off the books this summer, the Coyotes are actually in a position to add players over the next few days. The team could potentially nab an impact defenseman or an extra forward and protect them, something that not many teams can accommodate right now. If teams are out there in danger of losing a valuable asset for nothing, why not get at least a clearance price in the desert.

If that doesn’t happen though, there is a decision to make upfront. The team has to protect Kessel unless he waives his no-movement clause, but he was their leading scorer last season anyway. Garland is still an RFA and there have been rumors of trade talks, but he’s also one of the team’s most important assets. Keller, Schmaltz and Dvorak are basically all underperforming in terms of how much they’re being paid, but unless the team wants to attempt a drastic cap cut by letting them go to Seattle for free, they’ll be protected. Crouse is coming off a brutal year where he scored just four goals in 51 games, but is still young enough (24) and cheap enough ($1.53MM) to be worth hoping on a bounce-back season in 2021-22.

That leaves just a single protection slot for a group of forwards that includes Pitlick, Larsson, Fischer, Hunt and Hayden. None of those names jump out as a “must-protect” player, meaning the Coyotes could be exposing a handful of fringe forwards and letting the expansion team have their pick, just like a few years ago. Pitlick perhaps leads that group in terms of likelihood, but it’s not a slam dunk for any of them.

One interesting name to mention is Bunting, who is a Group VI unrestricted free agent but has gotten some offseason hype because of his late-season play and gold medal at the World Championship with Team Canada. The 25-year-old forward scored more goals (10) in 21 games for the Coyotes than Pitlick and Fischer combined, and could be an interesting target for the Kraken in their exclusive negotiating window. That is unless the Arizona front office signs him first, given they still have the capability to protect him.

On defense, there’s little worry about losing an impact player. The Coyotes will protect Ekman-Larsson because of his NMC and Chychrun because he’s the team’s best player. After that, there’s nothing really left to use the third spot on. Lyubushkin would be a nice piece to protect, but he is currently the only player (other than Ekman-Larsson and Chychrun) who meets the exposure requirements. If the team signed another one of the defensemen that have passed the games played threshold–say, Goligoski–then he would become the third player protected on the back end over Lyubushkin anyway.

In net is the biggest decision of them all for Arizona. Kuemper or Hill? The former is a much more established name and is a legitimate starting option, but the latter is six years younger and could still have a bright future. The face that Hill is signed for just $800K next season is likely appealing to both the Coyotes and the Kraken, but it would be too risky to leave Kuemper exposed with such few other intriguing options on the roster. A trade here seems prudent, though any acquiring team would need room to protect either one, certainly not an easy thing to find right now.

Projected Protection List

F Clayton Keller
F Phil Kessel
F Nick Schmaltz
F Christian Dvorak
F Lawson Crouse
F Conor Garland
F Tyler Pitlick

D Oliver Ekman-Larsson
D Jakob Chychrun
D Kyle Capobianco

G Darcy Kuemper

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Johan Larsson, Christian Fischer
Defensemen (1): Ilya Lyubushkin

Meeting these requirements isn’t really an issue, unless the team desperately wants to protect Lyubushkin. That would require a new deal for someone else and then subsequently leaving them exposed, which doesn’t seem likely at this point. That said, it does actually pose a complication if the team ever wanted to trade one of Kuemper or Hill, since they would then need a different netminder to meet the exposure requirements. In all, it looks like the Coyotes might just take their chances losing whoever Seattle has their eye on and move forward like they did a few years ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Boston Bruins

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the Boston Bruins were able to protect all of their key forwards but had to make a difficult choice of who to protect on defense other than Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug. The third spot came down to physical veteran Kevan Miller and skilled youngster Colin Miller. It was a lose-lose, as whoever they did not protect was expected to be selected by the Vegas Golden Knights. The Bruins opted to stay loyal to the veteran and watched a promising young blue liner find success elsewhere.

This time around, the Bruins are again able to protect their most valuable assets, with a little luck from some timely expiring contracts, and this time around don’t have any hard choices to make on defense. Yet, the team will again have to expose talented young defensemen and very likely will suffer another tough loss.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Patrice Bergeron (NMC), Charlie Coyle (NMC), Brad Marchand (NMC), Peter Cehlarik, Jake DeBrusk, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic, Cameron Hughes, Ondrej Kase, Joona Koppanen, Karson Kuhlman, Curtis Lazar, David Pastrnak, Nick Ritchie, Zach Senyshyn, Craig Smith, Chris Wagner

Defense:
|Linus Arnesson, Brandon Carlo, Connor Clifton, Matt Grzelcyk, Jeremy Lauzon, Charlie McAvoy, John Moore, Jakub Zboril

Goalies:
Callum Booth, Daniel Vladar

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jaroslav Halak, F Taylor Hall, F David Krejci, F Sean Kuraly, D Kevan Miller, G Tuukka Rask, D Mike Reilly

Notable Exemptions

F John Beecher, G Jeremy Swayman, F Jack Studnicka, D Urho Vaakanainen

Key Decisions

The Bruins are guaranteed to lose a good player to the Seattle Kraken, but it could be much worse. Career Bruins Krejci and Rask, who are still playing at an elite level, are currently unrestricted free agents and have essentially made it known that they will play only in Boston or else retire. The duo would have no choice if under contract and exposed in the Expansion Draft, but their long-term contracts expired just in time. Trade Deadline addition Hall, who proved to be a terrific fit, is also a UFA and has expressed interest in re-signing in Boston. Seattle is unlikely to select the former MVP if his mind is set on staying with the Bruins. Even valuable depth pieces who are not necessarily locks to re-sign with Boston but have at least discussed the possibility, such as Kuraly, Miller, and Reilly, are currently free agents and have free will over their next move whether selected by the Kraken or not. The Bruins essentially have lucked into upwards of six additional protection slots by way of timely free agency for players who would like to return to Boston.

With the actual protection slots that the team does have, many of the decisions have been made for them. No-Movement Clauses for icons Bergeron and Marchand, as well as local product Coyle, will keep the trio protected. Bergeron and Marchand would have been obvious protections anyway and, even after a down year, the versatile, two-way Coyle likely would have been as well, in hopes that he returns to form following much-needed knee repairs this off-season. In net, by default the team will keep promising young goaltender Vladar as starter Rask and backup Halak are free agents, future starter Swayman is exempt, and minor leaguer Booth was seemingly signed for the exact purpose of meeting the exposure requirements.

Elsewhere on the roster there are some automatic protections as well. Young stars McAvoy and Pastrnak are no-brainers for protection, especially after both were nearly NHL All-Star selections this year. Carlo, another standout young defenseman, will also surely be protected, as will veteran winger Smith who the team just signed to a bargain, multi-year deal last off-season.

On defense, there is one spot open and while there may have been some debate as to who to protect before this season, Grzelcyk quickly ended that conversation. The 27-year-old puck-mover had a career year across the board as he stepped into the void left by Krug’s free agency departure and proved himself invaluable to the Bruins. Had he failed to do so, he may not have been the easy choice with other younger defenders in the mix.

While Boston is surely happy that they can protect the only defensemen under contract who have proven themselves as top-four options, and also have some potential UFA returners and exempt prospects who could play key roles next season, the team is still set up to possibly take a big loss on the blue line in the draft. Exposing all three of Lauzon, Zboril, and Clifton gives Seattle multiple young options to consider stealing from the Bruins. Lauzon would be the biggest hit, definitely on defense but possibly on the whole roster. The 24-year-old is a reliable defensive presence who is dominant on the penalty kill, is physical, and is not a liability moving the puck or contributing in the offensive zone. He may not have enormous upside, but could be an NHL starter for many years to come. Zboril, also 24, finished seventh in voting for the NHL’s All-Rookie team this year and was one of the AHL’s top defensemen last year. While he did not do as much with his opportunity this season compared to Lauzon, Zboril is a balanced defenseman with arguably more upside that Lauzon who could take a major step forward once he overcomes some bad tendencies and polishes his game. Clifton, though unlikely to play above the bottom pair in the NHL, plays a physical, high-intensity brand of hockey that makes him a refreshing addition to the lineup as an extra man. While he is limited in some areas, Clifton is nevertheless an eye-catching presence on the ice. Any of the three affordable young blue liners would be unsurprising selections by Seattle.

In contrast, the forwards remaining – especially with two protection slots yet to be claimed – are far less likely to be chosen. For starters, the biggest available name, DeBrusk, will not be available. Despite a very poor 2020-21 campaign, DeBrusk is still a 24-year-old forward with a 27-goal season and two 40+ point seasons on his resume. In DeBrusk’s first three seasons, he played at an 82-game pace of 25 goals and 49 points. While his production this season was far from that mark, the Bruins are not ready to give up on him that easy. At $3.675MM on the final year of his current contract, DeBrusk is a palatable cap hit in exchange for the upside. While it is true that he may need a chance of scenery, the Bruins will not just give him away; they will hold out for a fair trade or not move him at all. If DeBrusk is still a Bruin by this weekend, he will almost definitely be protected.

One spot left up front and so many options. All have their reasons for, but also have reasons against protection. Of the remaining group of available names, Ritchie was far and away the top scorer. However, the big winger’s production was heavily weighted on his early season power play role. As the year wore on, Ritchie’s production disappeared and by the end of the playoffs he had been demoted to the fourth line. A restricted free agent with limited ability given his offensive and defensive shortcomings, the Bruins can hope that Seattle bites based on Ritchie’s goal scoring numbers this year, but it is unlikely. Even if the team wants him back, they will probably not protect him.

The same goes for Kase. On talent alone, Kase should be protected and if left unprotected should be the obvious selection for the Kraken. However, his injury history makes both teams wary. Kase missed all but three games this season due to concussion issues and his future is unknown. The Bruins may want to keep Kase around after trading for him just last year, but not at his $2.6MM qualifying offer given the injury risk, meaning they likely plan to make him an unrestricted free agent anyway. Also knowing Seattle is unlikely to risk an expansion selection on a player who may never be healthy, it would be surprising to see Kase protected.

Seemingly just a throw-in to the Hall trade, Lazar was a great fit with the Bruins down the stretch and in the postseason and if not selected in the Expansion Draft looks to anchor the fourth line and contribute to the penalty kill in Boston next year. However, he is one year away from unrestricted free agency and has bounced around the NHL with limited sustained success in his young career. The Bruins are unlikely to protect him and know Seattle is unlikely to select him for the same reasons. As for fellow fourth liner Wagner, the local product was worth a multi-year deal at $1.35MM AAV to the Bruins, but not to most other teams. Expecting the Kraken to pass, the Bruins probably do not protect Wagner. The team also knows that in the event that Lazar or Wagner are in fact taken by Seattle, they have plenty of defensive-minded forwards waiting in the AHL for opportunity.

So who gets the final protection slot? The smart money is on young Frederic. The 2016 first-round pick is a budding fan favorite in Boston with his hard-nosed style and willingness to drop the gloves. Frederic also showed good offensive ability in the NCAA and AHL prior to his arrival as an NHL regular this season. He still has some holes to his game with growing left to do, but the Bruins lacked grit and physicality at times this season and know they can get at least that from Frederic, if not more. With a higher ceiling than any other bottom-six forward in consideration (not including a healthy Kase), Frederic offers the most potential value to the Bruins.

Projected Protection List

F Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
F Charlie Coyle (NMC)
F Jake DeBrusk
F Trent Frederic
F Brad Marchand (NMC)
F David Pastrnak
F Craig Smith

D Brandon Carlo
D Matt Grzelcyk
D Charlie McAvoy

G Daniel Vladar

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Curtis Lazar, Chris Wagner
Defensemen (3): Connor Clifton, Jeremy Lauzon, Jakub Zboril

The Seattle Kraken are not holding their breath about the Bruins’ protection list. They know that regardless of the final decisions they are getting a good player, even with Boston protecting their core. That could be a promising young defenseman like Lauzon or Zboril, a bottom of the lineup role player like Ritchie, Wagner, or Clifton, or maybe even a high-ceiling, low-floor risk in Kase. Seattle could also have plans to offer a godfather deal to one of the Bruins’ impending free agents, with Hall obviously the most intriguing of the bunch, or to use the sheer number of possible expansion losses as a way to goad Boston into making a side deal to select a certain player at a cost (Moore perhaps?). Regardless of the result, the Kraken will get something good from the Bruins.

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

When the Buffalo Sabres last faced an expansion draft, they were coming off a last-place finish in the Atlantic Division and didn’t have a ton of high-end talent to protect. Names like Tyler Ennis and Johan Larsson ended up being protected over a little-known rookie named William Carrier, who would go on to become a fan favorite in Vegas. The 6’2″ Carrier is an absolute wrecking ball on the ice and has racked up 734 hits in his 214 regular season games with the Golden Knights. Though the team will obviously try to avoid making the same mistake, there are some interesting decisions to be made in Buffalo this time around.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner (NMC), Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Cody Eakin, Zemgus Girgensons, Anders Bjork, Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Asplund, Andrew Oglevie

Defense:

Rasmus Ristolainen, Colin Miller, Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju, William Borgen

Goalies:

Dustin Tokarski

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Drake Caggiula, F Tobias Rieder, D Jake McCabe, G Linus Ullmark, G Carter Hutton

Notable Exemptions

F Arttu Ruotsalainen, F Dylan Cozens, G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Key Decisions

This expansion primer could be made obsolete at any moment, given the offseason that is about to start in Buffalo. The team has had extensive trade talks about Eichel, Reinhart and Ristolainen, three players who were once considered building blocks for the franchise. If any of them are moved before the draft, things could be drastically altered.

But if things stay the same for the next few days? There are some tough decisions to make.

At forward, Eichel, Reinhart, Mittelstadt and Olofsson are easy choices for protection. Skinner’s no-movement clause makes him a must-protect, even though the Sabres would obviously like to leave him exposed. That leaves just two spots for the trio of Thompson, Bjork and Asplund, who have all shown flashes of high-end NHL potential but have lacked consistency. The 23-year-old Thompson has spent the most time in Buffalo, arriving from the St. Louis Blues in 2018 and playing 104 games with the team. He signed a three-year, $4.2MM deal in 2020 and registered 14 points in 38 games this season. There are a lot of questions surrounding Thompson’s game, but the 6’7″ forward will still likely get at least one more kick at the can in Buffalo, so protection is warranted.

For Bjork, things aren’t so dissimilar. He came in the Taylor Hall trade this season and is signed through the 2022-23 season on a three-year, $4.8MM deal. He had six points in 15 games after arriving in Buffalo and it would be hard to watch him snatched up by Seattle just a few months after arriving in such a major trade.

That leaves Asplund on the outside looking in, but who knows if Seattle would even have any interest. The 23-year-old has registered eight goals and 14 points in 57 career games, splitting this season between Buffalo, Rochester and Sweden. There is real offensive potential in Asplund, but as a restricted free agent without a ton of experience under his belt, might be passed over without much attention anyway.

On defense, Dahlin leads the way as an obvious choice, but things are a little cloudier after that. Jokiharju likely deserves protection after showing some signs of improvement late in the season, but he was also a huge disappointment early on. His lack of development was a huge problem for the Sabres this season, even if he is still definitely young enough to continue to improve.

It’s the third spot that becomes completely unclear at this point, given that Ristolainen is still on the roster. The team appears to have an NHL-ready replacement in Borgen, but he has just 14 games of experience under his belt to this point. Leaving Ristolainen unprotected would essentially be handing a valuable asset over to Seattle, even if his time with the Sabres organization has come to an end. A trade makes sense, but as of now Ristolainen is still on the roster and needs that final protection spot.

One thing to point out is that Buffalo spent a sixth-round pick last expansion draft to protect an extra goaltender, keeping Vegas away from Ullmark while protecting future Golden Knight Robin Lehner. This time they don’t have anything to worry about in the goaltending situation with no one even signed, but perhaps they could do something similar to protect Asplund or Borgen, if necessary. There’s also the possibility that the Kraken decide to sign one of Buffalo’s free agents, namely Ullmark, if they believe him to be the most valuable option. The team has a short window before the draft to negotiate with pending UFAs, but it would count as their selection from the Sabres. Unlike some of the other free agents around the league, there’s no expansion issue stopping Buffalo from re-signing their starter—in fact, they don’t even have a goaltender under contract to protect at all, since Tokarski must be left exposed to fill the requirements.

Projected Protection List

F Jack Eichel
F Jeff Skinner (NMC)
F Sam Reinhart
F Victor Olofsson
F Tage Thompson
F Casey Mittelstadt
F Anders Bjork

D Rasmus Ristolainen
D Rasmus Dahlin
D Henri Jokiharju

G (none)

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Kyle Okposo, Cody Eakin, Zemgus Girgensons
Defensemen (1): Colin Miller

The Sabres are fine for their protection requirements, though Miller’s exposure does post an interesting option for the Kraken. He of course was the Golden Knights’ selection from the Boston Bruins last time around, and ended up netting Vegas a second and fifth-round pick from Buffalo after putting up some big numbers in increased minutes. At just 28, is it unthinkable that the Kraken could try to pull off a similar trick with the right-shot defenseman, pulling him out of the struggling Sabres shadow and giving him prime offensive minutes on an expansion roster?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Calgary Flames

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the Calgary Flames faced an expansion draft, they had an ace up their sleeve. Deryk Engelland was a pending unrestricted free agent, coming off a three-year deal with the team. He was 35 and on the back end of his career though, meaning there was no guarantee Calgary would even be interested in retaining him. It didn’t matter, as Engelland was also a Las Vegas local, having played there during his minor league career and fallen in love with the city. The Golden Knights would sign him to a one-year, $1MM deal (with performance bonuses) and use him as an unofficial captain, helping the other players transition to life in the desert.

This year, interestingly enough, the team has another veteran free agent from the expansion area (okay, Spokane’s not exactly Seattle, is it?) in Derek Ryan. Can they pull off the same trick twice? Or will the Flames actually lose a piece of their roster this time?

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Milan Lucic (NMC), Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube, Matthew Phillips, Byron Froese, Glenn Gawdin, Justin Kirkland, Dominik Simon

Defense:

Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington

Goalies:

Jacob Markstrom (NMC), Tyler Parsons

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Derek Ryan, F Josh Leivo, D Michael Stone, G Louis Domingue

Notable Exemptions

F Adam Ruzicka, D Juuso Valimaki, D Connor Mackey

Key Decisions

The Flames only really have one tough decision when it comes to the draft, and that’s what to do on defense. Hanifin, Andersson and Tanev are all the logical choices to protect, given their importance to the franchise and contract status. All three are signed through at least 2024, with Andersson even longer than that. If the Flames go that route though, what happens to captain Giordano? The 37-year-old defenseman is still signed for next season, carries a $6.75MM cap hit and could potentially be a player to help market the Kraken in their first year.

We’re only two years removed from seeing Giordano win the Norris Trophy after scoring 74 points in 78 games, and though that offense has declined, he’s still a legitimate top-four option that could potentially even wear the “C” in Seattle. There is an argument to be made that the Flames could use his cap space elsewhere this season, but it seems like terrible asset management to let Giordano go for nothing at this point. There would surely be a team at the trade deadline interested in paying up for his services, and even with his limited no-trade clause (Giordano lists 19 teams he’s willing to be traded to), the Flames could likely get quite a haul.

So then, as with any team looking at four defensemen worth protecting, the Flames must consider the eight-skater protection strategy. Unfortunately in this case, unless they make several trades, that seems unwise. Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Backlund, Dube, and Mangiapane are all easy selections to be protected, with any one of them a likely Seattle target if left exposed. One factor upfront could be Lucic’s no-movement clause, but the veteran winger has already publicly stated that he’s happy to waive it if it helps the club.

With those seven forwards all likely more important than Giordano to the long-term health of the franchise, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Flames protect their captain. That is of course unless a side deal is made with Seattle or a separate trade in the next few days.  For now, it appears as though he will be the one left available.

In net, there’s really no decision to be made. Markstrom holds the no-movement clause and would be the easy choice for protection even if he didn’t. Despite his struggles this season, he’s locked in as the team’s starter.

Projected Protection List

F Matthew Tkachuk
F Johnny Gaudreau
F Sean Monahan
F Mikael Backlund
F Elias Lindholm
F Andrew Mangiapane
F Dillon Dube

D Noah Hanifin
D Rasmus Andersson
D Chris Tanev

G Jacob Markstrom

Assuming Lucic waives his NMC*

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (1): Milan Lucic
Defensemen (1): Mark Giordano

One thing for the Flames to do over the next week is fill their exposure requirements, as only Lucic meets them at this point if the top seven forwards are all protected. A new contract for Ryan, Leivo, Ritchie, or Simon would do it, or a trade for another player that is signed through next season and meets the games player requirement. Time is getting short though, so perhaps the Flames have something else planned for their protection strategy.

On defense, Giordano meets the requirement but he’s the only one, meaning if they ever wanted to protect all four key defensemen they’d need to sign someone else. In net, extending Parsons a qualifying offer is all that is required.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Hurricanes got off pretty easily in expansion as the Golden Knights selected Connor Brickley while accepting a fifth-round pick to stay away from other options.  Brickley was a pending UFA and never signed with Vegas, ultimately going to Florida instead.  Only losing a fifth-rounder is better than most teams fared back then but they’re unlikely to be similarly unaffected this time around.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Sebastian Aho, Jesper Fast, Warren Foegele, Morgan Geekie, Steven Lorentz, Spencer Smallman, Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Staal (NMC), Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, Vincent Trocheck

Defense:
Jake Bean, Jake Gardiner, Eric Gelinas, Maxime Lajoie, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Jaccob Slavin

Goalies:
Jeremy Helvig, Alex Nedeljkovic

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jani Hakanpaa, D Dougie Hamilton, F Jordan Martinook, F Max McCormick, F Brock McGinn, G Petr Mrazek, F Cedric Paquette, G James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

F Dominik Bokk, F Seth Jarvis, D Joey Keane, F Martin Necas, F Ryan Suzuki

Key Decisions

There isn’t much to decide between the pipes.  Even if Carolina is considering non-tendering Nedeljkovic to avoid the potential for arbitration, he’s still the logical one to protect.  Even if they wanted to leave him unprotected and protect Helvig for some illogical reason, they’d have to first tender him his qualifier which takes away the option to avoid arbitration.  This one is easy.

It isn’t anywhere near as easy on defense.  Sure, Slavin and Pesce are the obvious selections but it gets a lot tougher from there.

Skjei is a capable top-four defender and while his production has dried up since coming over in a trade from the Rangers, he’s still logging over 20 minutes a night and playing a significant role on their penalty kill.  He has three years left on his deal at a $5.25MM price tag.  That might be a little above market value considering the drop-off in points but if it is an overpayment, it’s not by much.  And at 27, he’s in the prime of his career.  Carolina is also less than a year and a half removed from trading a first-round pick to get Skjei so letting him go for nothing to Seattle would certainly sting.  The Kraken need to pick up some notable contracts in their draft and Skjei would become an immediate fixture for them defensively if he was to be made available.

So why isn’t he the obvious choice?  That would be the presence of Bean on the eligible list.  The 23-year-old was a first-rounder himself back in 2016 and finally was able to establish himself as a regular this season despite being involved in 50 taxi squad transactions throughout the season; that number isn’t an exaggeration but the moves gave Carolina some salary savings.  Is he ready for a top-four spot in the lineup?  If so, he could be protected over Skjei and likely move into Skjei’s spot on the depth chart.

Hamilton also has to be considered here.  He has been given permission to talk to other teams early which is a sign the two sides are far apart in contract talks but if Hamilton doesn’t get the deal he wants, he could circle back.  If Carolina was able to sign him in the next week, he would then get the final spot.  Meanwhile, Gardiner is a safe bet to be left protected after struggling in his first two seasons with the Hurricanes.

Up front, most of the spots are easily spoken for.  Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen, and Trocheck are all locks.  Staal has a no-move clause which secures his spot as well.  Niederreiter has been up and down since joining the Hurricanes and has a high enough contract ($5.25MM) that he could be left exposed but he was second on the team in goals this year; that’d be hard to part with so let’s put him on there as well.  That’s six of the seven spots right there and enough sure-fire protectees to take away the eight-skater option which would allow them to keep both defensemen.

At first glance, Foegele would seem like the logical candidate.  He has been a capable middle-six forward and has been productive in a limited role, notching at least ten goals in three straight years.  However, he’s also arbitration-eligible and if they’re worried about Nedeljkovic’s arbitration eligibility, they could be concerned with Foegele’s as well.  If they are, there’s no point protecting him if they’re considering non-tendering him.

Fast signed a pretty cheap deal in the fall, a contract that has two years left on it at a respectable $2MM.  However, his numbers took a bit of a dip this season in more of a limited role than he was accustomed to with the Rangers.  It’s still a good value deal but losing someone that’s on the third line with some frequency wouldn’t be a bad outcome for the Hurricanes.

Geekie is still largely unproven in the NHL with 36 of his 38 career regular season games coming this season.  Most of that time was spent on the fourth line.  However, he’s going to be cheaper than the other options and plays the premium position as he’s a center.  So too does Lorentz but Geekie is a little younger which probably leaves Lorentz exposed.

Projected Protection List

F Sebastian Aho
F Morgan Geekie
F Nino Niederreiter
F Jordan Staal (NMC)
F Andrei Svechnikov
F Teuvo Teravainen
F Vincent Trocheck

D Brett Pesce
D Jaccob Slavin
D Brady Skjei

G Alex Nedeljkovic

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019-20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Jesper Fast, Steven Lorentz
Defensemen (1): Jake Gardiner

Carolina is able to meet the requirements with the above players but it’s the restricted free agents in Bean and Foegele that will be the most attractive to Seattle.  Kraken GM Ron Francis is quite familiar with both players having drafted when he was GM of the Hurricanes.  Both are young – Foegele has two years of team control left and Bean four – which means Seattle will be getting a longer-term piece.  Bean would likely be the favorite to be selected but either way, they’re going to get hit harder this time than they were by Vegas and a fifth-round pick alone wouldn’t be able to protect everyone this time around.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Chicago Blackhawks

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the Blackhawks had to face an expansion draft, the outcome ended up in the news long before the Golden Knights announced their pick. Trevor van Riemsdyk would be left unprotected, but Vegas would also agree to take on Marcus Kruger’s remaining contract. Though it had to wait until after Chicago paid his signing bonus, Kruger would eventually end up with the Golden Knights in exchange for “future considerations.” Vegas would flip both Kruger and van Riemsdyk to Carolina, essentially getting second and fifth-round picks for just a tiny bit of salary retention. Those kinds of moves were part of the brilliant strategy devised by Vegas, but won’t be so easy to pull off this time around.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Jonathan Toews (NMC), Patrick Kane (NMC), Alex DeBrincat, Brett Connolly, Dylan Strome, David Kampf, Ryan Carpenter, Adam Gaudette, Josh Dickinson, Brandon Hagel, Henrik Borgstrom

Defense:

Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan, Connor Murphy, Nikita Zadorov, Riley Stillman

Goalies:

Collin Delia, Malcolm Subban, Kevin Lankinen

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Vinnie Hinostroza, Brandon Pirri, Anton Lindholm

Notable Exemptions

Dominik Kubalik, Pius Suter, Philipp Kurashev, Kirby Dach, Alexander Nylander, Ian Mitchell, Adam Boqvist, Wyatt Kalynuk, Nicolas Beaudin

Key Decisions

This time in Chicago, the decisions to make are actually relatively easy. One of the biggest questions a few months ago would have been whether Nylander deserved protection five years after being selected eighth overall by the Buffalo Sabres. That question now has an easy answer, as the 23-year-old winger is exempt because he missed this entire season following knee surgery. Because his first two years post-draft were spent mostly at the AHL level, they don’t count toward his eligibility and thus he has just two years of professional experience under his belt, at least according to the expansion rules. He’s exempt, and Chicago fans can argue over whether or not he deserves a roster spot next season.

Toews, Kane and DeBrincat are obvious choices for protection. Now that the captain is back skating, there’s no need to talk about waiving his no-movement clause for the Blackhawks in order for them to protect an extra player. Strome, even though he is coming off a terrible season, has too high a ceiling to be left exposed to Seattle. Hagel was about as big of a bright spot as they had in Chicago this season, adding 24 points while seemingly never running out of energy. The 22-year-old likely gets protected. Borgstrom already agreed to a two-year deal to return to North America, so Chicago isn’t going to let the first-round pick get selected.

That leaves two spots for the group of Connolly, Kampf, and Gaudette, with the odd man out potentially heading to Seattle. A $3.5MM cap hit seems like a ridiculous price for the Connolly that scored just three goals in 31 games last season, but what about the one that had 71 over his previous 286 (a 20-goal 82-game pace). Sure, if Seattle took him off Chicago’s hands it wouldn’t be the end of the world, but at just 29 there is real bounce-back potential there. Kampf has never shown an ability to score at that rate, with just 17 goals over his four seasons with the Blackhawks. That’s not to say he’s useless, but he’ll be an RFA this summer and scored just a single goal in 56 games this season.

Gaudette is the most interesting case here, after arriving midseason in a trade from the Vancouver Canucks. The 24-year-old looked like he was ready to breakout in 2019-20 when he scored 12 goals and 33 points in 59 games, but he completely fell apart in the playoffs and then couldn’t find his game at all this season. He’ll also be an RFA this summer, and it’s not really clear how the Blackhawks plan to use the 2018 Hobey Baker winner. There is at least an argument to be made for Kampf’s defensive consistency over Gaudette’s offensive potential, even if it would have seemed crazy a year ago.

On defense, things really just boil down to the Keith situation. It appears a trade is likely, with the Kraken one of the preferred destinations thanks to its proximity to his hometown. Whether a deal is officially made before the draft (other teams including the Edmonton Oilers are also involved in the discussions) or Keith simply agrees to waive his no-movement clause, it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be protected by the Blackhawks.

That leaves three spots for four defensemen, with Murphy obviously getting one of them. Zadorov and de Haan could easily be the other choices, though perhaps Stillman could also be a factor if the team believes they’ve locked up real value when he signed a three-year, $4.05MM deal in April. When it was signed, GM Stan Bowman noted that Stillman’s development was “something we look forward to seeing firsthand,” suggesting that perhaps they believe he can be a real core piece moving forward. If that’s the case, Zadorov or de Haan could be exposed simply to open up cap space and minutes for their other young defensemen.

In net, it really comes down to who the organization believes has the highest ceiling. All three netminders played this season, all three will be unrestricted free agents after next. Lankinen came back to earth after an outstanding first half, finishing with a .909 save percentage in 37 games. He’s the leading candidate for protection, but it seems unlikely that any of them would be in danger of selection anyway.

Projected Protection List

F Jonathan Toews
F Patrick Kane
F Alex DeBrincat
F Dylan Strome
F Adam Gaudette
F Brandon Hagel
F Henrik Borgstrom

D Connor Murphy
D Nikita Zadorov
D Riley Stillman

G Kevin Lankinen

*Assuming that Keith is traded or waives his no-movement clause before the draft

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Brett Connolly, Ryan Carpenter
Defensemen (2): Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan

Even if the team trades Keith ahead of the draft, leaving de Haan (or Stillman) exposed would fill their defensive requirements. The exposure requirements could also help the decision on Connolly, as he’s one of only a handful that currently meets the games played threshold and are signed through next season. Gaudette or Kampf, alternatively, would require new deals to fill that forward requirement.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest victims of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, trading a first-round and second-round pick to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for the team selecting William Karlsson and taking on David Clarkson’s contract. Karlsson has blossomed into the best center in Vegas’ young franchise history, while the Blue Jackets now have a hole down the middle and could have used those high draft picks to help fill it.

The team has seemingly spent the past four years making sure that history would not repeat itself this year. The Blue Jackets can protect all of their core players, leaving next to nothing of value for Seattle, and the only deal that they will make with the Kraken would have to be mutually beneficial.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Max Domi, Boone Jenner, Patrik Laine, Gustav Nyquist, Cliff Pu, Eric Robinson, Jack Roslovic, Kole Sherwood, Kevin Stenlund, Calvin Thurkauf

Defense:

Gabriel Carlsson, Vladislav Gavrikov, Scott Harrington, Seth Jones, Dean Kukan, Zach Werenski

Goalies:

Cam Johnson, Joonas Korpisalo

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Michael Del Zotto

Notable Exemptions

F Emil Bemstrom, F Yegor Chinakhov, F Josh Dunne, F Liam Foudy, D Mikko Lehtonen, G Elvis Merzlikins, D Andrew Peeke, F Alexandre Texier

Key Decisions

Kudos to GM Jarmo Kekalainen, who has taken most of the decision-making out of his team’s expansion process. The Blue Jackets may have taken a step back this season and looking to re-tool in the off-season, but at least they will not lose any players of great value.

Well, that’s not entirely true. By all accounts, Columbus will lose star defenseman Jones, but it will be on their own terms. While it may seem like a waste, the Blue Jackets are very unlikely to deal Jones before the Expansion Draft and thus must protect him so that they can make a deal later on this off-season.

Fortunately, Jones is not exactly stealing a protection slot from a top player. Fellow blue line standout Werenski and the reliable Gavrikov can still be protected in the 7-3 scheme, while future starters Peeke and Lehtonen are exempt, leaving only the likes of depth defenders Kukan, Harrington, and Carlsson exposed.

The decision in goal is even easier. With one half of their top tandem exempt in Merzlikins, the Blue Jackets simply protect the other side in Korpisalo, leaving untested Johnson exposed.

At forward, things are a little trickier – but not by much. Career Blue Jackets and locker room leaders Atkinson, Jenner, and Bjorkstrand are most importantly all productive scorers and will be safe. Despite down seasons to begin their Columbus tenures, there is no way that the team exposes Laine or Domi. On the flip side, Roslovic’s first season with the team was perhaps the highlight of the campaign and he is also not going anywhere.

This leaves just one protection slot open up front with three realistic candidates: Nyquist, Robinson, and Stenlund. This may seem like an easy decision to the casual onlooker, as Nyquist is a well-known name whereas Robinson and Stenlund have only recently established themselves as NHL assets. However, Nyquist is far from a lock due to the fact that he missed the entire season following off-season shoulder surgery. He will be 32 before next season and is a year removed from game action. Can the Blue Jackets really commit to $11MM over the next two seasons for an aging player whose return to form is uncertain?

They can, and the going theory is that they will. It isn’t a knock on Robinson or Stenlund, who both proved themselves to be valuable to Columbus this season, but the upside of Nyquist is simply much higher. In 2019-20, his first season with Blue Jackets, Nyquist was second on the team in scoring a key piece on special teams, all areas that struggled this year in his absence. With 40+ points in each of his seven full NHL seasons, including a 60-point campaign just two years ago, Nyquist is nothing if not consistent and reliable and would be a difficult player for the Blue Jackets to lose as they look to right the ship.

Of course, Nyquist’s age and contract are still a concern, even if he is able to bounce back. However, the Blue Jackets are not in any salary cap trouble and could use the veteran presence as they look to push more young talent onto the roster. Seattle may not be in the same boat; the Expansion Draft could yield far more well-paid veterans of value than affordable youngsters and the Kraken may not be keen to take an older, expensive player like Nyquist given his injury concerns and uncertain future. If the Blue Jackets decide to bank on this possibility, Robinson or Stenlund could be protected. They each made a good case this season; Robinson played in all 56 games and recorded career highs in goals and points, while Stenlund has recorded ten points in 32 games in back-to-back seasons, a26-point full-season pace. Either bottom-six forward could continue to provide value to Columbus, but at least one must be exposed if not both.

Projected Protection List

F Cam Atkinson
F Oliver Bjorkstrand
F Max Domi
F Boone Jenner
F Patrik Laine
F Gustav Nyquist
F Jack Roslovic

D Vladislav Gavrikov
D Seth Jones
D Zach Werenski

G Joonas Korpisalo

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Eric Robinson, Kevin Stenlund
Defensemen (1): Dean Kukan

Regardless of which players they choose to protect, the Blue Jackets will only expose the bare minimum required, likely by design. After all, Stenlund was just signed to a one-year extension last month with the Expansion Draft in mind. Barring an extension or outside addition, only the designated two forwards and one defenseman will be exposed among those meeting the requirements, as none of the other eligible players – Pu, Sherwood, Thurkauf, Carlsson, Harrington – are worth protecting.

Columbus leaves little for the Seattle Kraken if they protect Nyquist, which seems likely. It is a group of exposed players lacking in NHL experience or considerable upside. Robinson and Stenlund offer physical play and 25-point upside as bottom-six forwards, but at 26 and soon-to-be-25 respectively, there may not be much room for improvement. Kukan, 27, has had a hard time staying in the lineup in Columbus and looks to be best suited as a No. 7 defenseman on a good team. Harrington, also 27, was used even less, was less productive, and has more tread on his tires. Carlsson, though younger and bigger than Kukan and Harrington, was unable to unseat them with the Blue Jackets and would have much more competition with the Kraken. Unless Seattle GM Ron Francis has a special affinity for one of these players, Columbus seems like a prime team for a pick-and-trade, moving their selection to a contender seeking depth.

With all of that said, the Blue Jackets do still remain a fascinating candidate to make a side deal with the Kraken. With three first-round picks, including No. 5 overall, and a need at center that they would love to address with the top forward prospect in the draft, Columbus has the means and the desire to land the No. 2 pick from Seattle if they are open to moving it. The new franchise could certainly benefit from an extra first round pick if they move back and may even be able to change the Blue Jackets’ protection plan as part of the deal.

Expansion Primer: Colorado Avalanche

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the expansion process rolled around, the Avalanche were in great shape. They ended up losing depth goaltender Calvin Pickard, who never even played a game in the Vegas organization. He cleared waivers and then was traded for a sixth-round pick and Tobias Lindberg the following October, meaning Colorado certainly didn’t part with much of an asset. This time around the Avalanche are a much deeper roster and things may not be so painless.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards: 

Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri, Joonas Donskoi, J.T. Compher, Valeri Nichushkin, Tyson Jost, Kiefer Sherwood, Travis Barron, Logan O’Connor, Ty Lewis, Jayson Megna, Vladislav Kamenev

Defense:

Erik Johnson (NMC), Samuel Girard, Devon Toews, Ryan Graves, Dennis Gilbert, Cale Makar, Jacob MacDonald

Goalies:

Hunter Miska, Jonas Johansson

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Gabriel Landeskog, F Brandon Saad, D Patrik Nemeth, G Philipp Grubauer, G Devan Dubnyk

Notable Exemptions

F Shane Bowers, F Sampo Ranta, F Alex Newhook, F Martin Kaut, D Conor Timmins, D Bowen Byram, G Pavel Francouz

Key Decisions

Just reading through the list of eligible players you can start to see a problem for the Avalanche, and a potential reason why Landeskog remains unsigned. It’s not clear whether the team has a deal “in the drawer” for their captain (reports indicate that isn’t the case, though things can change at any moment), but it certainly would help the situation if he signs after the draft instead of before it. Remember, that strategy technically gives the Kraken a chance to speak with Landeskog ahead of the draft, meaning they could offer him a huge contract to try and pry him away from the only team he’s ever known.

Even if he and Saad are not signed before the draft though, it still leaves Colorado GM Joe Sakic with a tough decision. Do you protect seven forwards and three defensemen, potentially risking a young player from the blueline, or eight skaters in order to make sure that defense corps stays intact? The decision will be almost entirely based on whether Johnson agrees to waive his no-movement clause, which would normally force the Avalanche into protecting him. The veteran defenseman is an unlikely target for Seattle because of his age, contract, and recent injury issues, meaning waiving it would only serve to help the franchise he currently plays for.

Assuming he does waive it and the team goes the seven forwards-three defenseman route, there are still plenty of decisions to be made. Rantanen, MacKinnon, Burakovsky, and Nichushkin are easy choices to protect at forward, but that leaves the group of Kadri, Donskoi, Compher, Jost, and O’Connor to fill just three spots.

It might have been easy to pencil Kadri into that must-protect list a few months ago, but after getting another playoff suspension, there will have to be at least some discussion over whether he should be a core piece moving forward. Three times now in his career he hasn’t been available when his team needed him most, and the 30-year-old center has just one year left on his contract.

Donskoi and Compher are both valuable players, but given their cap hits ($3.9MM and $3.5MM respectively) it wouldn’t be the end of the world to lose one of them, with so many free agents to sign this offseason. One of those free agents is Jost, who is an arbitration-eligible RFA. He too has settled into a role with the Avalanche and is still just 23, but hasn’t experienced the offensive breakout that was expected when the team selected him 10th overall in 2016.

That leaves O’Connor, who some may overlook simply because of his undrafted status and lack of NHL experience, but there were real moments of upside from him this season as a bottom-six piece. The fact that he will carry a cap hit next season that is less than league minimum ($725K) makes him a valuable option for an Avalanche team that will be skirting the salary cap ceiling all year long.

Of course, even if Johnson does waive his clause, it doesn’t mean things come easy on defense. The simple answer is to protect Makar, Girard and Toews, who each logged more than 23 minutes a night this season and are all core pieces of the roster. But that would mean exposing Graves, who arguably outplayed Toews and Girard in the playoffs and carries the lowest cap hit of the three. The 26-year-old Graves looks like he is still improving and could very well be part of the Kraken top-four if left exposed.

In net, there isn’t even anyone that really deserves protecting, unless Grubauer re-signs before the draft. That means the Avalanche could actually make a trade for a new starting goaltender before the draft if they believe their incumbent Vezina finalist will be too expensive to bring back.

Projected Protection List

F Mikko Rantanen
F Nathan MacKinnon
F Andre Burakovsky
F Nazem Kadri
F Joonas Donskoi
F Valeri Nichushkin
F Tyson Jost

D Samuel Girard
D Devon Toews
D Cale Makar

G Jonas Johansson

*Assuming Landeskog does not re-sign before the draft and Johnson waives his NMC

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (1): J.T. Compher
Defensemen (3): Erik Johnson, Ryan Graves, Jacob MacDonald

Of course, in this situation the Avalanche still have some work to do. They need to leave two forwards exposed that meet the requirements, and by protecting both Donskoi and Kadri it leaves just one. A new contract for Landeskog,  or Saad would change this, but they could also just extend Bellemare or even Calvert if he is healthy enough to return to action. On the back end, Johnson waiving his NMC would do the trick, but even without him they have enough options to fill the single required spot.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Dallas Stars

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Presumably by design, the Dallas Stars were able to protect all of their core players in the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft and have done so again this year. Last time, Vegas selected capable center Cody Eakin, but it was a relatively painless loss for the team. Ironically, it could a very similar result this time around as Seattle takes their pick. The Kraken do have a couple other intriguing options, but the Stars should again escape somewhat unscathed.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Jamie Benn (NMC), Alexander Radulov (NMC), Tyler Seguin (NMC), Nicholas Caamano, Blake Comeau, Jason Dickinson, Radek Faksa, Denis Gurianov, Roope Hintz, Tanner Kero, Joel L’Esperance, Adam Mascherin, Joe Pavelski

Defense:
Ben Gleason, Joel Hanley, Miro Heiskanen, Julius Honka, John Klingberg, Esa Lindell, Andrej Sekera

Goalies:
Ben Bishop (NMC), Anton Khudobin, Colton Point

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Andrew Cogliano, D Jamie Oleksiak, D Sami Vatanen

Notable Exemptions

F Mavrik Bourque, F Ty Dellandrea, D Thomas Harley, F Joel Kiviranta, G Jake Oettinger, F Jason Robertson, F Riley Tufte

Key Decisions

The Stars really have not left much up to the imagination when it comes to the Expansion Draft. In 2017, they protected Benn, Faksa, Seguin, Klingberg, Lindell, and Bishop and there is no reason to believe that all of those core players won’t be protected again. In fact, No-Movement Clauses ensure that Benn, Seguin, and Bishop, as well as Radulov, must be protected. Klingberg and Lindell remain reliable top-four defensemen and Faksa is a strong defensive center who just signed a long-term extension last off-season.

There also isn’t much competition for spots to force any of these players out of the protection slots they owned four years ago. With three forwards and a defensemen still able to be protected, there is plenty of flexibility. On the back end, elite young Heiskanen is the obvious choice to join Klingberg and Lindell, which only leaves free agent Oleksiak and 34-year-old veteran Sekera as exposed players with any reasonable value. Up front, top scorer Pavelski and young top-six forwards Hintz and Gurianov, who signed new deals alongside Faksa last summer, seem almost certain to be protected to complete the protection group.

Could there be a surprise selection? Unlikely, but if so it will come at forward. Dallas may be thinking that Pavelski’s age and contract could make him expendable in favor of a longer-term investment. The 36-year-old was phenomenal in 2020-21, but entering the final year of his contract and at a price tag of $7MM, Pavelski is an expiring asset in more way than one and if selected by Seattle his cap space could come in handy this off-season. With that said, the Stars will have a hard time replacing Pavelski’s production for next season with any potential off-season addition. As they look to get back to the postseason, Pavelski would absolutely come in handy. Maybe they are instead wary of Faksa’s declining offense, especially on a long-term deal. If they feel that there is another young forward on the roster who could be a better future piece, they may not mind getting out from underneath his remaining four years. However, Faksa’s real value comes in his physicality, face-off ability, and other two-way strengths. The $3.25MM AAV on his contract is not a major issues given his continued assistance in those areas.

As improbable as it may be that Pavelski or Faksa are not protected, the next question would be who might take their place. Seemingly the only candidate would be 25-year-old forward Dickinson, a versatile player whose role with the Stars has been ever-increasing over the past five years. However, Dickinson is not an irreplaceable asset, especially compared to Pavelski or Faksa. Dickinson himself helped to replace a similar player in Eakin, who Dallas allowed to be selected in the last round of expansion. History could repeat itself this year. Yet, Dickinson is also a restricted free agent, meaning the Kraken would have to value him enough to make him one of their maximum ten non-termed players selected in the Expansion Draft.

Projected Protection List

F Jamie Benn (NMC)
F Radek Faksa
F Denis Gurianov
F Roope Hintz
F Joe Pavelski
F Alexander Radulov (NMC)
F Tyler Seguin (NMC)

D Miro Heiskanen
D John Klingberg
D Esa Lindell

G Ben Bishop (NMC)

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Blake Comeau, Tanner Kero
Defensemen (2): Joel Hanley, Andrej Sekera

GM Jim Nill has telegraphed his expansion moves going all the way back to October. In less than a week’s time early that month, the Stars extended aging veterans Sekera and Khudobin knowing full well that they would meet Expansion Draft exposure requirements at positions where, at the time, they didn’t have any other options. Nill did not plan ahead the same way at forward and at the end of this regular season the team did not have any players to meet the exposure quota. However, he took care of that quickly by re-signing two impending unrestricted free agents over the past two months in Kero and Comeau, both of whom just needed a new deal to meet the requirements for exposure, but neither of whom were key players this season and signed affordable extensions.

Khudobin’s extension may have had additional ulterior motives. Whereas Comeau, Kero, and Sekera are not exactly attractive options for the Seattle Kraken, Khudobin is. An experienced netminder who has been one of the best backups in the NHL for much of his career and was Dallas’ starter this season in place of the injured Bishop, Khudobin would be a nice pickup for Seattle as either a member of their inaugural roster or as a valuable trade chip. Yet, Dallas has Bishop returning to health and top prospect Oettinger ready to share the net. The Kraken selecting Khudobin would arguably be doing the Stars a favor.

While Khudobin has long been the expected target of Seattle, the aforementioned Dickinson could be a candidate for selection. Young players Caamano, Mascherin, or Gleason could be other outside-the-box options. The Kraken may also be interested in striking a deal with UFA Oleksiak, who many expect to re-sign with Dallas, but otherwise would be one of the better defensemen on the open market this off-season. Oleksiak – assuming the Stars have a handshake extension in place – would be the biggest potential loss for the team, but they know the risks of leaving him unsigned. No Seattle pick should come as surprise or sting too much for Dallas, which is exactly how Nill planned it.

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