Expansion Draft Issues At The Trade Deadline: Forwards

This trade season is one like never before. The addition of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18 and the Expansion Draft that goes along with it add a whole other layer to trade-making this year. With each and every transaction, the expansion draft protection formula can change. Even in 2000, when the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets were welcomed into the league, the expansion rules were not a strict and general managers did not have to be as paranoid about their moves. This time around, everything is different. What does it all mean? For fans, there is a real possibility that this could be the quietest Trade Deadline in recent memory. Buyers interested in impending free agent rentals may not have to worry about the draft implications, but the sellers potentially taking back roster players with term certainly do. Trading is hard enough, especially in a season with very few teams significantly out of the playoff race, and expansion will only increase those barriers. Luckily, there are several teams that need to make moves prior to the deadline or they could risk being in very sticky situations when the Knights get ready to make their selections. With teams like the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Anaheim Ducks, who have so much talented, veteran depth at multiple positions, there is really not much that they can do; they’re going to lose a good player. For others, a sensible contract extension can solve all of their problems. However, for these teams, making a trade before it’s too late may be exactly what they need. We’ve looked at the defense conundrums of the Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes and the goaltending scenario of the Philadelphia Flyers, but there a quite a few more teams with problems up front that need solving:

Chicago Blackhawks

Luckily for the Blackhawks, it’s hard to remember a deadline where GM Stan Bowman didn’t add a veteran forward. This year they may really need one though, regardless of their Cup run condition, to protect young scorer Ryan Hartman. The 22-year-old winger has 13 goals and 10 assists in his first full season with Chicago, and if nothing changes it would likely be his last season in Chicago. In setting their protected list for the Expansion Draft, the Blackhawks must protect Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, and Artem Anisimov due to their no-movement clauses. They would, of course, have protected those four anyway, but other than that group, the team has only two other players that meet the draft criteria of having two unprotected forwards that have played in 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two seasons and have term remaining on their contract: Marcus Kruger and Hartman. Kruger is not a great loss, but retaining Hartman is a major priority as the deadline approaches. The ‘Hawks could simply re-sign 30-year-old Andrew Desjardins or 34-year-old Jordin Tootoo, who both hit the 40/70 benchmark, but are impending free agents. However, the pair have combined for one point in 63 man-games this season and may not strike Bowman as players worth keeping, since they are nearly guaranteed to not be selected by Vegas. Richard Panik and Dennis Rasmussen are both restricted free agents who would also qualify if given an extension, but the team might think twice about exposing either player when they don’t have to. If push comes to shove, Chicago would surely rather lose Rasmussen or have to re-sign Desjardins if it means that Hartman is safe, but acquiring an affordable, serviceable forward with years remaining on his contract prior to the deadline may be the easier move for Bowman and company.

Dallas Stars

Despite their performance this season, the Stars are very much built like a team trying to make one last run at a Stanley Cup. Only five players on Dallas and on the AHL’s Texas Stars have both two years of professional play under their belt and term remaining on those contracts. The rest of the team is composed of impending unrestricted free agents and the AHL squad is mostly restricted free agents.  Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza have no-movement clauses and are obviously safe, as is All-Star Tyler Seguin. However, without any further moves, Dallas would have to leave 25-year-old center Cody Eakin and team enforcer Antoine Roussel exposed in the draft. With the likes of Radek Faksa, Brett Ritchie and (probably) Valeri Nichushkin needing to be protected as well, the Star’s may have to leave one or the other on the table, but certainly not both. Roussel is having a career year, on pace to beat his career-high 29 points while also skating a career-best 15 minutes per game. Eakin, who missed time earlier this year and has been held to just six points in 33 games, is regardless coming off of three straight seasons of 35+ points and is just entering his prime. If they want to protect one or both, moves need to be made. Dallas is not short on extension options, with UFA’s Patrick Sharp, Patrick Eaves, Jiri Hudler, Lauri Korpikoski, Adam Cracknell and even the injured Ales Hemsky meeting the 40/70 criterion. However, if the Stars want to make up for their disappointing season, trading several of those players for picks and prospects at the deadline seems likely may eliminate some choices. In the process of moving out that trade capital, it may simply be easier for GM Jim Nill to add one or two qualifying forwards along the way.

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Could Bobby Ryan Be Exposed In The NHL Expansion Draft?

TSN’s Darren Dreger hosted a Reddit AMA (Ask Me Anything) earlier today where he answered questions about hockey and sports reporting. One juicy tidbit he relayed was that Ottawa Senators forward Bobby Ryan could be a big name left exposed in the expansion draft, and that his exposure may not be a surprise in the hockey community.

Ryan is having a disappointing season. He has 11G and 10A in 46 games, and on pace for the lowest numbers of his career. The stinger is that he is in year two of a seven-year deal worth $7.25MM a year. The only thing more surprising than his exposure is that the Vegas Golden Knights may decline to pick him. At this point in his career, Ryan is not living up to his contract, and the Golden Knights would be saddled with Ryan for five more years. Given that the new expansion team is expected to select a high-cost goaltender, Ryan may be too rich for Vegas.

The former number two selection in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft never reached the potential scouts initially held for him. Almost a PPG player with the Anaheim Ducks, his production decreased significantly after being traded to Ottawa in the 2013 offseason. Ryan last scored over 30 goals in 2011-12, and is on pace for less than 20 this season.

Exposing Ryan allows the Senators to avoid asking veteran defenseman Dion Phaneuf to waive his No-Movement Clause, something that the Senators were reportedly contemplating. It will also allow the team to protect a Mark Stone or Kyle Turris.

 

Remembering The Early Trades From 2015-16

The month between the All-Star game and the NHL trade deadline is an interesting one. While most of the action happens right at the end, even sometimes extending past the official deadline due to trade calls, sometimes big moves happen early in February.

Last season, 33 trades happened in the last few days (from February 26-29) before the deadline,  but there were also seven deals that happened in the weeks immediately after the All-Star break. Those deals were just as important to the futures of their teams as any made on the day itself. Let’s look back at the seven deals made between February 9th and 25th last season.

February 9th: Toronto trades Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert and Cody Donaghey to Ottawa for Jared Cowen, Colin Greening, Milan Michalek, Tobias Lindberg and a 2017 2nd-round pick.

Starting with a whopper, the Maple Leafs continued their drastic tear-down by trading their current captain and highest paid player to a cross-province and divisional rival. The Senators had been looking for another big-minute defenseman and thought Phaneuf could become that player for them.

While it hasn’t worked out perfectly for the Senators, Phaneuf has logged over 23 minutes a night since coming over and is having a fine if unspectacular season offensively this year. While his massive looks like an albatross on their books – he’ll have a cap-hit of $7MM (more than Erik Karlsson) until 2020-21 – the actual salary is much lower. The team also rid themselves of dead money in Cowen, Greening and Michalek and only had to pay the price of a middling prospect in Lindberg and what looks like a fairly late second-round pick.

Lou Lamoriello and the Maple Leafs worked some accounting magic, and have effectively rid themselves of the cap-hits for all three players, burying Greening and Michalek in the AHL and buying out Cowen after a lengthy dispute. Moving Phaneuf was an integral part of the plan going forward, and both teams are fighting for playoff spots a year later.

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How Will The Expansion Draft Impact Canadian Teams?

Continuing our look at different expansion draft angles,  CBC’s Amy Cleveland examines how the draft will affect the seven teams in Canada. Laying out the rules for the draft, Cleveland looks further and prognosticates who she sees as “potentially protected” versus those players who would be “intriguing” in being exposed. She further writes that all seven Canadian teams will be able to protect the bulk of their important players. The Flames sit prettiest without any non-movement clauses in contracts while the Leafs and Senators have only one player with an NMC (Nathan Horton, and Dion Phaneuf respectively).

Below are Cleveland’s picks for each team. Going to CBC’s page with the story includes in depth reasoning behind each of Cleveland’s choices.

Calgary Flames
NMC protected players: None.

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Edmonton Oilers
NMC protected players: Milan Lucic (F), Andrej Sekera (D), Cam Talbot (G)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

Montreal Canadiens
NMC protected players: Carey Price (G), Jeff Petry (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Ottawa Senators
NMC protected players: Dion Phaneuf (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Toronto Maple Leafs
NMC protected players: Nathan Horton (F)

Potentially protected: 

Vancouver Canucks
NMC protected players: Loui Eriksson (F), Daniel Sedin (F), Henrik Sedin (F)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed: 

Winnipeg Jets
NMC protected players: Dustin Byfuglien (D), Toby Enstrom (D)

Potentially protected: 

Intriguing exposed:

 

Full List Of Mandatory-Protection Players In Expansion Draft

Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston has published the full list of players who, due to no-movement clauses in their current contracts, must be protected in the upcoming expansion draft for the new Vegas Golden Knights. These are players who will count against the protection limits should they choose not to waive their NMC rights prior to the draft.

Each team has the right to protect either:

A) Seven forwards, three defenders, one goaltender

or

B) Eight skaters, one goaltender

These players will count against those numbers, and as Johnston points out, there are some notable inclusions and omissions from this group. Players like Jordan Staal, Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan all had incorrect information spread about their contracts. The former two will now need protection, while the latter will not, due to his deal only having a no-movement to the minors clause.

The Chicago Blackhawks, with eight players listed, will have little flexibility at the draft, with only four forward spots (or one defenseman) left to use. Many others, according to Johnston, including Toronto’s Nathan Horton, are likely to be made exempt if they are still on LTIR as the draft approaches.

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East Notes: Snow, Senators Power Play, Merrill, Hall

While Islanders head coach Jack Capuano has come under fire for their slow start to the season (they sit 15th in the Eastern Conference with a 5-8-3 record), not enough criticism has been directed towards general manager Garth Snow, suggests Peter Botte of the New York Daily News.

Snow has been at the helm of the Isles since 2006, retiring from his playing career to take the position.  At the time, he stated that the goal was to take them from being a team looking to sneak into a playoff spot to one that would be a consistent contender but that has yet to be the case; two of their last three appearances came as a wild card or eighth seed.

While previous owner Charles Wang had placed significant restrictions on spending for the most, that isn’t the case with new owners Jon Ledecky and Scott Malkin as the team sits with just over $600K in cap space according to CapFriendly.  Snow’s offseason spending has yet to work out as left wingers Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera have underachieved while P.A. Parenteau is off to a good start…for New Jersey after the Islanders waived him in training camp.

Wang had a reputation for being very loyal to his employees but neither Capuano nor Snow have that type of history with the new ownership.  In their first year owning the team, it’s hard to imagine them cleaning house so quickly but if the team continues to struggle, that could change.  It’s not often that in-season GM changes are made given the lack of available candidates from other organizations which could play a role should ownership feel a change is necessary at some point.

Other notes from the Eastern Conference:

  • The Senators are last in the NHL on the power play with a success rate of just 9.3% (a surprise given that Guy Boucher’s teams have a reputation for being strong in that regard). Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun wonders if sticking defenseman Dion Phaneuf up front in the crease to work as a more effective screener is the way to go.  Boucher calls a move like that a last resort and is more inclined to try different forwards – including tough guy Chris Neil – in different spots on the man advantage for the time being.
  • The Devils announced via Twitter that they have activated defenseman Jon Merrill off of injured reserve. Merrill broke his index finger in the preseason and has yet to suit up for New Jersey since the regular season got underway.  He had five points in 47 games last season while averaging nearly 17 minutes per game of ice time.  Still with the Devils, left winger Taylor Hall will not play tonight due to a lower body injury.  Andrew Gross of Fire and Ice adds that Hall is being evaluated by team doctors and more should be known about his situation later today.

Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: McCarron, Chabot, Matthews, Nylander

Continuing on with Pro Hockey Rumors 2016-17 rookie profiles, we remain in the Atlantic Division. Included among today’s batch of first-year players is the most recent #1 overall draft choice, Auston Matthews. You can find the previous editions here, here and here.

Michael McCarron (Montreal) – A quick look at Montreal’s depth chart shows the Canadiens could surely use some size up front and McCarron is someone who boasts that trait in spades. At 6-foot-6 and 231 pounds. McCarron would easily be the largest forward on the ice for Montreal by a wide margin. But size isn’t the only quality he brings to the table; McCarron can also add some offense.

In his first taste of professional hockey, McCarron recorded 17 goals and 38 points for the St. John’s IceCaps in the AHL. That’s solid production for a first-year pro who played most of the season at 20-years-old.

McCarron would also get his first taste of the NHL playing 20 games with the Canadiens and scoring his first career big league goal. He also had a -10 plus-minus rating and although plus-minus ratings aren’t necessarily a good indicator of two-way prowess, it does suggest McCarron could use more polishing in the AHL. However, if he does get his chance in Montreal thi year, McCarron should at least add physicality and skill to the team’s bottom-six.

Thomas Chabot (Ottawa) – The Ottawa Senators used their first-round pick in 2015 on skilled, two-way defenseman Thomas Chabot and there is a decent chance he debuts this season in Canada’s capital. Scouting reports credit Chabot for being quick-thinking and an excellent skater; both traits that will fit well into today’s style of play in the NHL. But if Chabot wants to make an impact in the NHL he’ll have to ramp up the intensity.

Ottawa assistant GM Randy Lee felt Chabot’s performance at the team’s summer development camp was not up to par and evidently communicated that to the top prospect, as written about by Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun.

“I thought Thomas should have been a bit more intense, I thought Thomas should have dominated. I think Thomas should look at the landscape and see we’ve got six signed defencemen (to NHL contracts) … Thomas and I have talked about it.”

Clearly the Ottawa organization has high expectations for Chabot and will give him every chance to make the team this season. The Senators do have six NHL-caliber blue liners under contract, all of whom with significant professional experience. Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Marc Mathot and Dion Phaneuf should hold down spots in the club’s top-four with Mark Borowiecki and Chris Wideman forming the third pair. Of the group, Wideman has the least amount of NHL experience with just 64 games played. However he does have nearly three seasons of AHL experience under his belt as well. Chabot will have his work cut out for him if he wants to suit up for the Senators this season.

Auston Matthews (Toronto) – Matthews, the first overall choice in the June’s entry draft, will be an early favorite for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie. He is considered a future face-of-the-franchise player and while maybe not quite on the same level with Connor McDavid, last year’s top pick, in terms of being a “generational” talent, Matthews is still an exciting prospect.

Matthews already demonstrates excellent two-way ability and at 6-foot-2, 216 pounds has the requisite size to handle the rigors of a long NHL season. Additionally, his experience playing professionally against full-grown men in Switzerland should help facilitate his transition to the NHL. The Leafs have lacked a truly elite center since Mats Sundin left the club following the 2007-2008 campaign but all signs point to Matthews quickly filling that void.

William Nylander (Toronto) – The Maple Leafs have done an excellent job of adding high-end young talent to the organization in recent years and Nylander is part of the wave of top prospects preparing to lead Toronto to the top of the standings. Nylander reached the NHL last season and held his own in 22 games scoring six goals and 13 points while averaging 16:20 of ice time per contest.

Nylander also excelled playing for the Toronto Marlies in the AHL, tallying 18 goals and 45 points in 45 regular season games. In the postseason he added seven goals in 14 contests for the Marlies. It’s expected he’ll have a spot to lose in the Leafs’ top-four to open the season and has the skill to be one of the club’s top offensive producers.

Hockey apparently runs in the Nylander family blood as William’s father Michael carved out a solid NHL career playing for seven NHL clubs over a 15-year career. Alexander Nylander, William’s brother, was drafted by the Buffalo Sabres in the first round of the 2016 entry draft.

 

Ottawa Senators Sign Cody Ceci To Two-Year Deal

Feb 13, 2016; Columbus, OH, USA; Ottawa Senators defenseman <a rel=After negotiating for most of the summer, the Ottawa Senators have reached an agreement with restricted free agent defenseman Cody Ceci on a new two-year contract. The deal is worth $5.6MM in total, giving Ceci a $2.8MM cap-hit.

Ceci, 22, hit RFA status for the first time in his career after putting up back to back impressive seasons. His 26 points in 2015-16 ranked him second among Senators’ defensemen (only trailing superstar Erik Karlsson) while skating with Patrick Wiercioch or Dion Phaneuf for most of the season. With Phaneuf signed long-term, expect Ceci to form a duo with the former Maple Leaf for years to come.

The deal is just for two years, as was reported months ago by Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun, and represents a bridge deal for the young defenseman. Still an RFA at the contract’s end, Ceci will try to prove that he deserves a big-money deal to buy out a number of his free agent years. The problem is, that he’ll almost assuredly never climb higher than the second pairing because he plays the same side as Karlsson. This may cause problems for the internal budget of the Senators down the road, with Phaneuf signed through 2020-21 at $7MM and Karlsson needing a new, even bigger deal after the 2018-19 season.

[Related: Ottawa Senators Updated Depth Chart]

According to Garrioch, Ceci’s camp was looking for a six-year deal this time around, to lock up their client long-term with the club and buyout a few of his free agent years – the hesitation by the Senators is probably not due to a lack of trust in the player, but an uncertainty when it comes to their financial future. Owner Eugene Melnyk spoke at the end of the season about how important playoff revenues were to the team:

I’m looking at all of it, right across the board, nobody is safe when you have a year like we just did. The status quo would just get us there again next year and this team cannot survive not making the playoffs.

You can’t just throw money at these things. We all know other teams that would just throw money at things for decades and they’ve gotten nowhere. We need to do it a different way and I think we are.

However the picture shakes out down the line, for now the Senators have locked up an important part of their blueline for the immediate future. With Marc Methot, the top four is essentially written in pen going into camp, with Ceci sure to see some time on the second powerplay unit as well.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Atlantic Notes: Nylander, Ceci, Bruins Prospects

As we head deeper into the summer and with many of the bigger name free agents off the board, teams now are focused primarily on locking up any unsigned RFAs they may have. Additionally, many clubs are kicking off their annual prospect development camps which gives us a look at the next wave of NHL talent and a sneak peek at a handful of youngsters who may have a chance to impact their parent club’s fortunes as soon as this season. Along those lines, here’s the latest out of the Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division.

  • Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News describes the show Sabres’ 2016 first-round pick Alexander Nylander is putting on at the club’s development camp. Nylander, the brother of Toronto Maple Leaf forward William Nylander, was chosen 8th overall in the 2016 entry draft out of Mississauga of the OHL. However, as Harrington notes, unlike most players selected out of the CHL, Nylander is eligible to join the Sabres AHL affiliate in Rochester as opposed to returning to his junior team should he not crack the Buffalo roster out of training camp. This is due to the fact he was not selected in the CHL import draft and was loaned by his Swedish club to Mississauga.
  • Harrington’s colleague at The Buffalo News, Jack Goods, writes about Nylander’s World Junior’s linemate, Rasmus Asplund, who was Buffalo’s second-round choice in the 2016 entry draft. Asplund’s development was accelerated by playing against men in the SHL the last couple of years. Like Nylander, Buffalo will have the option of playing him down in Rochester but Asplund himself has said another year in Sweden may be best for his development.
  • In a piece for the Ottawa Citizen, Ken Warren looks at the RFA case for D Cody Ceci and opines that recent deals suggest the 22-year-old blueliner is in line for a big payday; particularly if the Senators want him around long term. Teams have been paying big for quality defensemen, both on the UFA market and when retaining their own players, and Ceci certainly should land a sizable deal this summer.
  • CSNNE.com’s Joe Haggerty lists a few of the prospects at development camp who are expected to challenge for regular roles for the Boston Bruins in 2016-2017. Specifically, with the team in need of blueline depth, Brandon Carlo and Matt Grzelcyk, will be given a chance to make the team out of training camp. Up front, Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen, are mentioned as “dark horses,” in the push for a roster spot.
  • Writing for Bleacher Report, Lyle Richardson lists the 10 worst contracts for the upcoming season. The Atlantic Division placed four players on the list, the largest representation of any of the NHL’s four divisions. F Matt Moulson of the Sabres ranks 10th on Richardson’s list, with G Jimmy Howard (6th) of Detroit and F Ryan Callahan (4th) of Tampa Bay also making the cut. While I think his inclusion on this list might be a tad unfair as he’s still a quality goaltender, the emergence of Petr Mrazek between the Motown pipes has turned Howard into an expensive back-up and the Wings could look to move him ahead of next year’s expansion draft. Topping the list is Senators defenseman Dion Phaneuf, who has five years remaining on a deal that comes with an AAV of $7MM.

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

After a season in 2014-15 that saw the Ottawa Senators put up 99 points and make the playoffs, last year was a big disappointment. Despite having a legitimate superstar in Erik Karlsson on the blueline, Ottawa went just 38-35-9 and missed the playoffs by 8 points. Karlsson put up 82 points and is a candidate to win his third Norris trophy, and would hide a lot of flaws on any team with his exceptional possession and offensive numbers.

With a very young roster, the team is another cap-floor team like Carolina (which we profiled earlier today) and won’t spend anywhere near the $71MM cap. They do however have some important names to re-sign if they want to build this core together. Here’s a look at their upcoming offseason:

Key Restricted Free Agent: LW Mike Hoffman – Following Hoffman’s breakout 2014-15 season where he scored 27 goals, the former 5th round pick improved in almost every category this season.  Racking up 29 goals and 59 points, the 6’1″ winger moved to a spot on the top line and flourished in his new role, averaging almost 18 minutes a night.

Hoffman will turn 27 next season and will be looking for a long-term deal with the Senators this summer; paid $2MM last season, he’s earned a much bigger deal this time around.  If the Senators aren’t willing to commit long-term to the Kitchener, Ontario native, Hoffman could sign a one-year deal and become an unrestricted free agent next summer. If he could hit that 30-goal mark in 2016-17, he’d be in for a huge payday.

Other RFAs: C Ryan Dzingel, RW Alex Chiasson, RW Buddy Robinson, LW Matt Puempel, D Fredrik Claesson, D Cody Ceci, D Patrick Wiercioch

Key Unrestricted Free Agent: None. The Senators only have two players hitting UFA status this summer, and both Scott Gomez and Mike Kostka are insignificant to their future plans.  The 36-year old Gomez hasn’t been an effective NHL player in years, and Kostka is a minor-league journeyman who has never had NHL success.

Projected Cap Space: $17.5MM, 18 players under contract.

The blockbuster deal to bring over Dion Phaneuf from the Toronto Maple Leafs last season made a huge impact on the Sens’ salary structure going forward, inducing a cap hit of $7MM a season for the next five. Fortunately for Ottawa, Phaneuf’s deal was front-loaded and they’ll only be paying him $5.5MM in his age-35 season, despite the big cap hit.

It’s the NMC in his deal that may be troublesome for the Senators, as he’ll have automatic protection in next year’s expansion draft.  With Karlsson obviously also needing it, the Senators will only have one more defenceman protection slot to use on their other young blueliners.

Overall, the team is in good shape going forward without many anchoring contracts, and a large crop of young players.  They’ll try to get back to the playoffs this season, and may sign a veteran or two to help lead the group there.

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