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Offseason Checklist 2025

Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by 17 Comments

The offseason has arrived with the draft now complete and free agency fast approaching.  Accordingly, it’s time to look at what each team needs to accomplish this summer.  We wrap up our series with a look at the Stanley Cup-winning Panthers.

Late in the regular season, things weren’t looking great for Florida.  The team was banged up and underachieving, slipping to third in the Atlantic Division, finishing just one point ahead of Ottawa who occupied the first Wild Card spot in the East.  However, they once again showed that they were a team built for the playoffs, taking care of business to win the Cup for the second straight year.  Now, GM Bill Zito has some work to do in the coming days to keep his team intact as much as possible.

Bridge For Samoskevich

While Florida has several pending unrestricted free agents (that we’ll look at in more detail shortly), they have one restricted free agent of some significance in winger Mackie Samoskevich.  The 22-year-old is coming off his first full NHL season and needs a new contract although he qualifies as a 10.2 (c) player and is therefore not eligible for an offer sheet.  That helps take the pressure off as there won’t be an inflationary offer coming in that could mess up the rest of their plans.

The 22-year-old played in 72 games with the Panthers this season, notching a solid 15 goals and 16 assists despite only averaging 13:19 per game.  However, he was used only sparingly in the playoffs, dressing for just four outings, only one of those coming after the first round.  With just seven other regular season games to his name from 2023-24, this is a profile that screams bridge contract.

If the Panthers want to leave as much flexibility as possible for next season, a one-year deal might only check in around the $1.25MM range.  Alternatively, a two-year pact would likely push the AAV closer to $1.5MM per season.  With no true pressure points, this is a case that could drag on a bit but there’s value in getting something done sooner rather than later so they know how much they have to spend on their core free agents.

Keep Key Free Agents

One of Florida’s ‘big three’ potential unrestricted free agents is off the market with the team announcing on Friday that center and Conn Smythe Trophy winner Sam Bennett had signed an eight-year, $64MM contract to remain with the Panthers.  That leaves them with $11MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, and two key players to try to keep, defenseman Aaron Ekblad and winger Brad Marchand.

Ekblad has been a fixture on the back end for the Panthers since they made him the first overall selection back in 2014.  He has been a full-time NHL player ever since and ranks second to only Aleksander Barkov for games played in franchise history.  Between missing a few games due to injury and a 20-game late-season suspension for a violation of the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program, Ekblad is coming off a quieter year by his standards but he still had 33 points in 56 games while logging 23:31 per night of ice time.  He’s still capable of playing on the top pairing and being an all-situations player for several more years.  But with a lot of mileage already, is Florida willing to give him a max-term deal?  Meanwhile, Ekblad appears to be in a position to command something around the $7.5MM he made on his expiring eight-year contract as the top right-shot option on a market largely bereft of impactful players on that side which gives him a lot of leverage in talks.

As for Marchand, this was not a situation that either side would be in.  When he was acquired at the trade deadline, the expectation was that he’d be a good secondary contributor and then probably move on.  But Marchand wound up being an instrumental part of their Cup run, chipping in with 10 goals and 10 assists in 23 games despite primarily playing in Florida’s third line.  Coming off a 51-point regular season, his stock is now quite high as well to the point where a raise on the $6.125MM he made on his set-to-expire contract is now doable, something that seemed very unlikely just a few months ago.

Zito has made it clear he wants to keep both of these players but the math simply doesn’t work.  One is an option but if they want to keep Ekblad and Marchand in the fold, they’re going to have to get creative and also move a player or two out.  Less than 72 hours away from the start of free agency, he’ll have to move fast.

Goalie Work

There’s work to do on a few fronts between the pipes for Florida this summer.  None of them necessarily qualify as significantly pressing but will require action at some point.

The first involves starting extension talks with Sergei Bobrovsky.  When Florida dealt Spencer Knight in the Seth Jones deal (leading some to believe Jones would replace Ekblad on the back end long-term), their in-house replacement for Bobrovsky went away.  Now, instead of potentially handing him the crease in 2026-27, working out a new deal for the 36-year-old seems like the route they’re going to try to take as a short-term solution.  It’s fair to say that the price tag won’t come close to the $10MM he’s making now but a two-year pact around the $6MM or so range would buy Zito a little more time to find a longer-term replacement.  The sooner they get that deal secured, the more confidence they can have about taking on money for 2026-27.  But it’s not necessarily something that has to be done over the next few months.

Florida got ahead of what was the next item on this list when they acquired goaltender Daniil Tarasov from Columbus earlier this week.  It’s expected he’ll take the place of Vitek Vanecek, who was acquired at the deadline to take Knight’s vacated spot, as Bobrovsky’s backup next season.  Now, they need to get him under contract.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of $1.26MM but the offer also carries arbitration rights, something they’d likely prefer to avoid.  With that in mind, it’s likely that they’d like to get something done soon or close enough where they could non-tender him and then sign him after that, a strategy that teams have started to employ more often in recent years.

The other thing they need to do is land a veteran third-stringer.  That was Chris Driedger’s role for most of the year before he was traded for Kaapo Kahkonen who played a big role in AHL Charlotte getting to the Calder Cup Finals.  They have prospect Cooper Black signed for one more year and he did quite well with the Checkers, albeit in limited action.  They’ll likely want to give him more action next season so a veteran who can split starts and also be called up to be the backup in a pinch in the NHL is the type of player they’ll likely want.  There will be several of those available so they’ll just have to ensure that they’re able to get a deal done with one of them.

Add Defensive Depth

At the moment, the Panthers only have five NHL blueliners under contract for next season.  One of those is Uvis Balinskis who was largely a regular during the regular season but was a healthy scratch 18 times in the playoffs.  Ekblad returning would make a big difference and shift the focus toward adding some injury insurance and depth above all else.

Nate Schmidt was one of the players signed last year to serve that depth role and he fared quite well to the point where he’ll either have to take a below-market deal to remain with the Panthers or move on.  At this point, the goal should be to try to find someone who can fill that type of role on the third pairing (16-17 minutes a night) for around that price tag to, again, maximize their spending room on their top players.  An extra one of those players would also be handy in an ideal world.

Internally, Tobias Bjornfot is someone who has been a depth defender but as a pending RFA with arbitration rights and 134 career NHL games, he’s a non-tender candidate to avoid any risk of a higher-than-desired award.  He’s the only reserve list defender with some NHL experience although Mike Benning has shown some promise and could be in the mix for a recall at some point.  With that in mind, a veteran defender who could start with the Checkers and be injury insurance would also be useful.

Photo courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images.

Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

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The offseason has arrived with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  Accordingly, it’s time to look at what each team needs to accomplish this summer.  Next up is a look at Edmonton.

Like usual, the Oilers were one of the league’s streakier teams in the regular season. They had a couple of ruts, and although they weren’t as offensively dominant as they were in years past, they still managed third place in the Pacific Division with a 101-point season. That didn’t mean much as the Oilers dominated their way to the Stanley Cup Final, going 12-4 in the first three rounds before losing the championship series to the Panthers for the second season in a row. General manager Stan Bowman now has to navigate another offseason of limited spending flexibility in Edmonton while having some must-needed improvements to make.

Lock Up Bouchard

The Oilers haven’t had many impact players arrive through the draft since Connor McDavid ended their string of high-end picks (for the most part) in 2015. They have hit on one of them, though, selecting defenseman Evan Bouchard 10th overall back in 2018.

Bouchard became a full-time NHL player in 2021-22 and had a good rookie season with 12 goals and 43 points, averaging nearly 20 minutes per game. He took a small step back offensively in his sophomore campaign, putting up 40 points in 82 games, but found a new gear in the postseason as he posted 17 points in just 12 games to lead the 2023 postseason in scoring among defensemen despite Edmonton being eliminated in the second round. That was a sign of things to come, but the cap-strapped Oilers opted to bridge him upon expiry of his entry-level contract that summer, signing him to a two-year, $7.8MM deal instead of freeing up space to commit to Bouchard long-term.

That’s a decision that may come back to haunt them. Now an RFA again, Bouchard has finished top 11 in Norris Trophy voting each of the last two seasons and, while he has some visible defensive faults, plays an elite possession game and has established himself as one of the league’s top offensive rearguards. He’s scored 149 points in his last 163 games, averaged a career-high 23:28 per game in 2024-25, and he’s one of the most productive playoff defensemen in league history. Among D-men with at least 50 postseason games, his 1.08 points per game are second only to Bobby Orr’s 1.24.

There’s no other option here besides a max-term extension for Bouchard, and they need to do it quickly to avoid the threat of a short-term offer sheet with a high AAV that would be too prohibitive to match. According to AFP Analytics, that deal is projected to cost the Oilers in the high $10MM range per season. They did themselves a favor today by opening up $5.125MM in cap space by trading Evander Kane to the Canucks with no salary retention. Still, they likely need to make another cap-clearing move, too – potentially underperforming winger Viktor Arvidsson and his $4MM cap hit – to be able to sign Bouchard and make some other roster alterations comfortably.

Work On McDavid Extension

There’s been little doubt in the past few seasons that this summer would result in a max-term extension for McDavid to avoid any talk of a free-agency departure in 2026 and restore his place as the league’s highest-paid player. After a second straight Cup Final loss, though, doubt has crept into public opinion. Those fires were stoked more over the weekend when Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reported that no deal was expected to come across the wire in the near future and that it may not be an eight-year deal if it gets done. TSN’s Ryan Rishaug added that informal negotiations will begin this week, but they’re not close to a position of exchanging initial numbers.

Those talks come after somewhat of a down season for the 28-year-old. He dealt with injuries and a suspension that limited him to 67 games, his lowest total in an 82-game schedule since a collarbone fracture limited him to 46 appearances in his rookie campaign. Of course, a “down season” for the best player in the world still means 74 assists and 100 points, even if his 0.39 goals per game were his lowest total since the 2016-17 campaign. 2024-25 also marked the first time McDavid went without a First Team All-Star selection in back-to-back seasons.

Nonetheless, he will assuredly eclipse teammate Leon Draisaitl’s $14MM cap hit and once again become the league’s highest-paid player sometime in the next 12 months, no matter the team and no matter the length of the contract. Draisaitl signed his extension for 14.67% of the salary cap – if McDavid signs for 15% at the projected $104MM for 2026-27, that would mean a $15.6MM cap hit. He’ll likely get even more – AFP Analytics’ extension projection is a four-year deal at $16.35MM per season, a reasonable bet if he opts for a bridge deal to maximize his career flexibility, particularly if the Oilers enter next season with a weaker roster.

It all comes down to how soon and for how long McDavid is willing to commit to Edmonton. They’ll almost certainly write him a blank check, so the ball will be in his court throughout extension talks. Winning a championship, not cash, will be his top priority. While that gives the Oilers some leverage, they at least need to provide McDavid with the hope/promise that Edmonton is his best chance of winning a Stanley Cup.

Improve Goaltending Situation

Saying goaltending has been an issue for Edmonton in recent years would be an understatement. They haven’t had a legitimate No. 1 netminder since Cam Talbot’s brief peak from 2015 to 2018. Stuart Skinner has been a high-ceiling option at times, but at least so far, simply doesn’t have the game-to-game consistency to get Edmonton to their first Cup win since 1990.

He’s also coming off an exceptionally difficult 2024-25 campaign. His .896 SV% in the regular season was a career-low among his seasons as a full-timer, and that figure dropped to an .889 mark in the postseason. The Oilers faced enough high-profile offensive clubs that Skinner was actually still a league-average goalie compared to the quality he faced, but the last team to win a championship without high-end playoff goaltending was the Avalanche in 2022.

Skinner is still an extremely cost-effective option for the club at a $2.6MM cap hit, though, as is backup Calvin Pickard for $1MM. They’re both entering the final year of their contracts and will be UFAs in 2026. Neither warrants entering extension discussions now with much bigger fish to fry in Edmonton. It might make sense for the Oilers to trade away one of them – either in an in-kind trade for an upgrade or to help open space to pursue the top UFA option in veteran Jake Allen. Either way, it’s hard to imagine Edmonton running things back with the same tandem in 2025-26.

Look At Depth Scoring Upgrades

The Oilers were one of the more active teams in free agency last summer, at least in terms of the volume of signings meant for the NHL roster. They were all veteran wingers on short-term deals, namely Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner, while also retaining Corey Perry. Aside from the last name, those pickups didn’t work out. Both Arvidsson and Skinner were healthy scratches in the playoffs, and neither one had more than 30 points in the regular season.

Their cap situation dictates they’ll need to take a similar approach this summer. They’ll need to be better at identifying who has the upward mobility to play with McDavid or Draisaitl, though, and should be open to younger reclamation projects as well. They’ve already added some cheap insurance in the form of reigning SHL scoring leader David Tomasek on the open market, but will look for NHL-experienced options too as cap space allows. There’s an extension in the works for deadline acquisition Trent Frederic, which should go a long way toward solidifying their middle-six group if he can rediscover his 40-point ceiling.

Image courtesy of Sergei Belski-Imagn Images.

Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs

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The offseason has arrived with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  Accordingly, it’s time to look at what each team needs to accomplish this summer.  Next up is a look at Toronto.

The Maple Leafs’ consistent run of strong regular-season play continued in 2024-25 with an 108-point season and their first division title in an 82-game season since 2000. While they did advance further in the postseason than in 22 years, they blew a 2-0 series lead in the second round against the eventual champion Panthers and failed to make their first Eastern Conference Final of the Auston Matthews era. General manager Brad Treliving now faces the most pivotal offseason in Toronto in years with multiple high-profile pending free agents and significant spending flexibility.

Identify Marner Replacements

Mitch Marner was the team’s third-highest-paid player at a $10.9MM cap hit as he completed the seven-year deal he signed as an RFA in 2019. He was easily set to become Toronto’s second-most or even highest-paid player ahead of Matthews this summer – that is, if he stayed with the Leafs instead of testing the open market. That won’t be the case, and the Leafs must now change from devoting resources to a Marner extension to identifying who can most effectively replace his production and add depth to the forward lineup.

Treliving is not finding a direct replacement for Marner’s 100-plus points; that much is certain. The trade-off for losing one of the league’s premier playmaking wingers will be the freedom of cap space re-allocation to improve the club’s depth lines while putting more trust in Matthews to anchor the top one. There will be at least two wingers acquired in Marner’s stead, either via trade or free agency. They already struck out on one – they were pretty interested in Mason Marchment before the Stars traded him to the Kraken last week.

They haven’t been heavily linked to the consensus No. 2 and No. 3 wingers on the market behind Marner this summer in Nikolaj Ehlers and Brock Boeser. There has, however, been heavy speculation about a fit between them and veteran Brad Marchand. Coming off a second-place finish in Conn Smythe Trophy voting after rattling off 20 points in 23 games in Florida’s Stanley Cup win, the Leafs are in a better position to give him a lucrative mid-term deal compared to most other contenders and would give him the opportunity to play at home in Canada for the first timem in his 13-year career. Even at his highest feasible price point, they’d still have another $2.5MM to $3MM to spend on a middle-six winger to complement names like William Nylander and Max Domi while presumably slotting Marchand in Marner’s slot alongside Matthews and Matthew Knies (more on him later).

After striking out on a player with upward top-nine mobility at a cheap price point in Marchment, that appears to be a path Treliving is heavily considering. Former 35-goal man Andrew Mangiapane is heading to the market after a tough season with the Capitals and should be available around that aforementioned price point. Toronto is among the teams reportedly showing a keen interest in signing him when free agency opens on July 1.

Ramp Up Knies, Tavares Talks

The more cost certainty they have, the more active the Maple Leafs can be in achieving checklist item No. 1 in nine days. Right now, they have very little. Their top RFA, Knies, and their top UFA with a chance of extending/returning, center John Tavares, remain without new deals. It’s not the best omen. The tone around the Leafs and Knies’ negotiations has been overwhelmingly positive from the outset, with reporting last month indicating neither side was worried about an offer-sheet threat and that there was a mutual understanding of what the final deal would end up looking like. There seemingly hasn’t been any notable progress in talks since that point, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period said Friday.

There’s similarly no extension imminent with Tavares, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic relayed in the last couple of days. That’s the more concerning bit of news. An offer sheet is always a possibility for Knies, but he at least remains under team control past July 1, and he has to actually sign the offer sheet for it to be of any significance. Tavares hitting the open market and leaving without a quick succession plan in place could result in disaster down the middle without a ton of suitable 2C replacements on the open market, particularly after Matt Duchene recently extended with the Stars on a quite team-friendly pact.

The act of re-signing Tavares frees up cap space, not limits it. His next deal won’t come anywhere close to his expiring $11MM cap hit, cementing both a discount at the center position for Toronto behind Matthews and added cost certainty to firm up the roster around the edges behind whatever the largest open-market splash they’re able to make ends up being.

There’s also the stipulation that while losing Marner’s point production without being able to get close to reconstructing it by committee would be tough to swallow, losing Tavares’ output in the same manner would be disastrous. While the 34-year-old may not have been fully worth the cap space he was taking up at the end of his deal, he was still an incredibly high-end producer last season. His 38 goals in 75 games were 12th in the league and marked his second-best goal-scoring season as a Leaf. He was also top-40 in the league in points per game at 0.99. Aside from veteran stopgap Mikael Granlund, there’s no UFA center with that kind of output as his ceiling. Among trade options, young Wild pivot Marco Rossi would be the only one fitting that bill, but Toronto wouldn’t be willing to part with the NHL-ready assets Minnesota wants in return, considering their existing issues navigating roster turnover this summer.

Explore Cap-Clearing Trade

Despite the lack of easily attainable potential replacements for their pending free agents, the Leafs at least have nearly $26MM in spending flexibility at the start of free agency to remove that as an immediately limiting factor. They could still open up their window of options even wider and prevent an August/September cap crunch by shedding a low-value contract now. They don’t have many, but there are a few among their depth forwards. Veteran winger Calle Järnkrok is entering the final year of his contract at a $2.1MM cap hit and has minimal trade protection with a 10-team no-trade list. He could be well-positioned to land them a legitimate return at that price point, but he could also be a cost-effective rebound candidate for them, too. Injuries limited him to just 19 regular-season games last year and he was underwhelming in the playoffs, but he’s averaged 38 points per 82 games since signing in Toronto three years ago.

A more desirable deal to move if possible would be David Kämpf, making $2.4MM against the cap through 2026-27 with a 10-team no-trade list that lapses in the summer of 2026. That’s notable as a team acquiring Kämpf now could flip him again next season without any contractual obstacle. He was an increasingly frequent healthy scratch last year, had 13 points and a minus-one rating in 59 games, and saw his ice time dip to a career-low 12:24 per game when dressed. He’s a true redundancy with a cheaper, higher-ceiling offensive option in the mix next year in Scott Laughton after being acquired from the Flyers at the trade deadline.

There’s also the matter of veteran enforcer Ryan Reaves, who remains under contract at a $1.35MM cap hit. They can reduce that to just $200K by waiving him and burying him in the minors like they did for the home stretch last year. They’ll presumably do that again if he’s still on the books, but if they can make the deal someone else’s problem for a low-round draft pick, they’ll presumably explore that to open up as much spending flexibility as possible.

Upgrade Scoring Depth

Any cap savings created by Toronto’s turnover this summer outside of direct replacements or new deals for pending UFAs should be staying with the forward group. There are a few reasons for this. For one, there’s little to no maneuverability (or motivation) to alter the personnel anywhere else on the roster. The Leafs have one of the league’s most cost-effective goaltending tandems, and their veteran defense corps shone bright under head coach Craig Berube last season. Even if they wanted to make a change, they already have nine defenders signed to one-way deals for next season, most with significant trade protection.

The secondary roster construction goal for Treliving this summer needs to be helping the club rediscover its offensive ceiling. Their 3.26 goals per game was still top 10 in the league in 2024-25, but their lowest output since the 2016-17 campaign nonetheless. While they had six 20-goal scorers last year, the dropoff after them was steep, and only eight players hit the 30-point mark.

In the past couple of years, these types of pickups have needed to wait until closer to training camp, as was the case with Steven Lorentz and Max Pacioretty in 2024. This offseason, Treliving has the spending flexibility up front to get cheap depth pickups out of the way early, but he might be better served to wait a couple of weeks for prices to come down.

Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images.

Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

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The offseason has arrived with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  Accordingly, it’s time to look at what each team needs to accomplish this summer.  Next up is a look at Dallas.

The Stars went all-in this season, swinging a pair of significant trades near the trade deadline to add multiple key pieces in the hopes that doing so would help them take that next step and reach the Stanley Cup Final.  Instead, despite the extra talent, they once again came up just short.  Now, GM Jim Nill has some work in the coming weeks to do to keep as much of his core group together for next season.

Hire A New Coach

It’s not very often that a team that has the type of playoff success that Dallas has changes coaches.  But a week after the Stars were eliminated, Nill elected to make a change, dismissing head coach Peter DeBoer after three seasons with the team, all of them ending with losses in the Western Conference Final.  His handling of goaltender Jake Oettinger during and after the final game of the Edmonton series is believed to be a contributing factor in the decision, as was the fact that DeBoer was entering the final year of his contract with the team.  Clearly, an extension wasn’t in the offing and rather than have a coach in his ‘lame duck’ year, they opted for a change.

The timing of the move was somewhat curious as, prior to the move, all the other vacancies around the league had been filled.  Had Nill made the decision even a few days earlier, he could have had a chance to speak to some of the new bench bosses that were hired elsewhere.

Accordingly, the early thought was that Nill might just promote from within, meaning one of assistants Alain Nasreddine (who briefly ran the bench in New Jersey) or Misha Donskov, along with AHL head coach Neil Graham, would be the speculative favorites.  In recent days, Oilers assistant Glen Gulutzan (who Nill fired as Dallas’ head coach in 2013) has become a speculative candidate for the opening as well.

Beyond those options, the usual options that came up in other coaching searches include veterans Bruce Boudreau, John Tortorella, Jay Woodcroft, and Gerard Gallant with first time options like Mitch Love, Jay Leach, and Manny Malhotra (who is still coaching in the Calder Cup Finals) potentially garnering consideration as the process goes on.  Additionally, they’ll also have a lead assistant role to fill after Boston hired Steve Spott as an assistant coach with them on Friday.

This isn’t something they necessarily have to have done by the draft but when free agency comes around, potential targets will want to know who they’re playing for.  With that in mind, a decision will need to be made relatively soon.

Clear Out A Defender (Or Two)

Nill has been quite busy in recent days on the transactions front, re-signing Matt Duchene to a four-year contract and then dealing away Mason Marchment to Seattle to balance the money from that move.  They’ve since re-signed defenseman Nils Lundkvist and winger Mavrik Bourque to low-cost one-year deals.  In doing so, they’ve dropped their cap space to $2.75MM per PuckPedia which sounds okay until you consider that they probably need to sign four forwards and possibly a defenseman with that money.  With a minimum salary of $775K, something has to give.

While there has been some speculation about moving out a core player (one in particular we’ll get to shortly), it feels like the Stars would prefer to chip away at creating that space with multiple moves, the Marchment one being the first.  To do that, the chipping away will need to come from the back end.

Veteran blueliner Mathew Dumba is the most logical candidate to remove from the roster.  The first season of his two-year, $7.5MM contract did not go well at all with the 30-year-old struggling to the point where he didn’t play at all in the playoffs.  That’s $3.75MM that could be used to round out the roster, perhaps to try to re-sign captain Jamie Benn.

But how to clear that contract remains to be seen.  A buyout would lower the cap hit to $1.417MM next season but add $1.167MM to the books for 2026-27.  Meanwhile, waiving and assigning him to the minors would only clear $1.15MM, leaving $2.6MM counting against the cap.  In a perfect world, trading him without retention would be Plan A but it’s likely they’ll have to incentivize a team to take him and down several draft picks, that’s not the most appealing option either.  But they’ll have to pick the best bad option and move forward from there.

There has also been some speculation about Ilya Lyubushkin.  He has two years left on his contract signed last summer with a $3.25MM cap charge.  He played more regularly during the regular season but wasn’t an every-game player in the playoffs for them.  In a perfect world, they’d keep him on the third pairing but if additional funds need to be freed up, he could be a candidate to move as well.  If nothing else, given the lack of depth of the market, Dallas should be able to move him without attaching assets unlike Dumba.

Whether it’s Dumba, Lyubushkin, or both, some more quick activity on the roster front will be needed from Nill before too long.

Make A Decision On Robertson

Knowing that a significant amount of cap space needed to be opened up (and that was before re-signing Duchene), there was plenty of speculation surrounding winger Jason Robertson.  With a $7.75MM price tag, clearing that much money would allow them to not move as many players out to keep cap-compliant.  Of course, doing so would also open up a significant hole on their top line.  There are three options the Stars have here as he enters the final year of his contract which we’ll go through here.

Trade: While this seemed to be more of an option earlier this month, it appears that Dallas has told teams that they don’t want to go this route.  But depending on how successful they are at clearing out the defensemen, it can’t be ruled out either.  At a price tag that will be cheaper than most of the top wingers on the open market (for one year, at least), there should be strong interest in a player who has reached at least 80 points in three straight years and has scored more than 40 goals in two of the last four seasons.  To keep the cap charge down, the bulk of the return could be futures-based but there would be room for them to pick up an entry-level forward who is already established, similar to Carolina’s addition of Logan Stankoven from Dallas in the Rantanen trade.

Extend: There’s a case to make that if the Stars don’t move Robertson, they should focus in on trying to sign him to a long-term extension this summer, eliminating any speculation about a trade coming into play as the season goes on.  His qualifying offer jumps to $9.3MM and he’ll be arbitration-eligible while being one year away from UFA eligibility so it’s going to take a big offer to get something done now.  Knowing the $104MM projection, simply matching his current cap hit percentage would make the offer $9.766MM which still feels on the low side given how productive he has been in the first three years of the deal.  At this point, the price tag feels likely to start at the $11MM mark, especially if it’s an early deal getting done.

Hold: This one is rather self-explanatory.  If they want to keep their options open, they can enter the season without an extension and if they struggle or find themselves too far apart on contract talks, then the idea of a trade could be entertained closer to the trade deadline or they could kick the can on extension discussions to this time next summer.  It’s probably not their preferred option but it could easily happen.

Harley Extension Talks

Robertson isn’t the only prominent player entering the final year of his contract that Dallas has, as defenseman Thomas Harley is also in that situation.  It took a while for the Stars to get a bridge deal done with him last fall but with their cap situation, they didn’t have much of a choice since a long-term pact wasn’t in the cards.  They’ll be able to at least start talks on a new deal this summer but it would be surprising to see something get done early.

While there’s an $8.5MM projected increase to the Upper Limit between 2025-26 and 2026-27, Robertson projects to take up around half of that.  And frankly, a long-term deal for Harley coming off the year he just had (50 points in over 23 minutes a night of action) is going to cost more than $8.5MM (his current cost plus the leftover increase after Robertson’s possible raise).  So at this point, a long-term extension to one of Harley or Robertson could preclude one going to the other in the near future.

However, there is one other option they could go with and that’s a second bridge deal.  Harley has three RFA-eligible years after this one so another two-year pact would fit within the remaining projected increase assuming Robertson signed an extension.  Having said that, that’s not the type of deal that typically gets signed one year out.

With all of that in mind, this could very well be a case where both sides ultimately exchange numbers and decide that more time is needed.  But Nill will need to get a sense at least of what Harley’s next deal will cost to help shape their offseason planning and determine how much future money they may need to try to clear off the books.

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports.

Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes

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The offseason has arrived with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  Accordingly, it’s time to look at what each team needs to accomplish this summer.  Next up is a look at Carolina.

For the fifth straight season, the Hurricanes advanced past the opening round of the playoffs.  For the second time in three years, they made it to the Eastern Conference Final but this time, they were quickly eliminated by Florida.  It’s not very often that a team that gets this far in the playoffs has the ability to take some big swings but GM Eric Tulsky is well-positioned to try to do just that to fill some big needs the roster has.

Add A Second-Line Center

With Sebastian Aho locked up through 2031-32, Carolina’s top center is in place for the long haul.  Jordan Staal is nearing the end of his career but was a reliable third liner this season and continues to be sharp at the faceoff dot so he’s a safe bet to be in that role again in 2025-26.  But in between those two, there’s an opening that needs to be filled.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi was supposed to be that piece for them after being brought over from Montreal via a successful offer sheet.  But over his four seasons with the team, he has yet to reach 20 goals and has only reached 35-plus points once.  If it weren’t for the fact that they enter the summer with a whopping $26.7MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, there might be a case to make for buying out the remainder of his contract since he still qualifies for a lower one-third cost instead of the standard two-thirds.  But with the flexibility they have, they can keep him around and continue to hope that the 2018 third-overall pick will break through.

But hoping for improvement can’t be Plan A down the middle for the Hurricanes next season.  Jack Roslovic was brought in as a low-cost piece to see if he could play his way into that role.  He had some good moments and a quiet 22 goals but it seems unlikely that he returns after being scratched multiple times in the playoffs.  With much more flexibility cap-wise, they can aim a lot higher this time around after being forced into looking at lower-cost pieces last summer.

The list of key center UFAs is well-known and pretty small.  John Tavares, Sam Bennett, and Mikael Granlund are the remaining headliners.  Landing one of them would solve the problem for a few years, at least.  Otherwise, they’ll have to turn to the trade market to try to fill that spot, something that a lot of teams will likely be looking to do with options in relatively short supply.  They haven’t had a reliable second option down the middle arguably since Vincent Trocheck, and that will need to change in the coming weeks.

Add A Top-Line Winger

When the Hurricanes surprised the hockey world by acquiring Mikko Rantanen midseason, they parted with a pretty strong winger as part of the return in Martin Necas.  Of course, they weren’t able to agree on a long-term contract with Rantanen to keep him around so Tulsky opted to flip him at the trade deadline to recoup some value.  All things considered, he did rather well, adding Logan Stankoven, two first-round picks, and two third-round selections.  But with all due respect to Stankoven, a solid youngster, the move was a pretty big step back in terms of short-term talent.

Part of the reason for being open to accepting a futures-based return knowing there would be some short-term pain was the knowledge that they have that cap space available to them.  When it comes to the open market, few can offer more than the Hurricanes.  That’s definitely an enviable spot to be in.

Now, they need to take advantage of it.  They were believed to have shown interest in Mitch Marner at the trade deadline but Marner wouldn’t waive his trade protection to go there.  Was that because he didn’t want to go to Carolina or because he wanted to stay with the Maple Leafs for the playoffs?  It stands to reason they’ll find out the answer to that very quickly as he’ll almost certainly be at the top of their wish list this summer.  Failing that, Brock Boeser and Nikolaj Ehlers should be getting calls as well.

This season, the Hurricanes had two wingers record more than 50 points which is a pretty low baseline for a top-six player.  One of those was Necas in the 49 games before the trade while the other was Seth Jarvis, who reached 67 for the second straight season.  Andrei Svechnikov has gotten there a few times before but had a bit of a down year this season.  He and Jarvis aren’t a bad duo to start from but they’re going to need a pickup of considerable significance if they want to have a shot at taking that next step.

Bring In A Top-Four Defenseman

This season, the Hurricanes had three blueliners average at least 20 minutes a game.  One was Jaccob Slavin, whose new eight-year deal kicks in July 1st, one that already looks like a below-market contract.  The others were Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov, both of whom are set to reach unrestricted free agency next month.  Accordingly, they’re going to need to be replaced on the roster.

It’s likely that at least one of the two spots will be filled internally.  Alexander Nikishin was long viewed as the top blueliner outside the NHL and held his own in four playoff games.  It’s safe to say that they don’t intend to start him in the minors next season and the hope is that he’ll be able to play his way into a top-four spot relatively quickly.  Prospect Scott Morrow could also be in the mix and could fill the vacancy on the right-hand side of the back end but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Carolina prefer to give him more time with AHL Chicago.

That leaves one spot to try to fill externally.  Unfortunately, it’s not a particularly deep crop of rearguards.  Offensively, only four players had more points than Burns and Orlov and one of them (Matt Grzelcyk) doesn’t fit with Shayne Gostisbehere already on the roster.  Basically, that limits potential upgrades to Aaron Ekblad, Ivan Provorov, and Vladislav Gavrikov, while Dante Fabbro, Cody Ceci, and Ryan Lindgren have handled top-four minutes before.  That’s not a lot of options.  Speculatively, knowing Nikishin and Morrow are pegged as key pieces for the future, it wouldn’t be too shocking to see Tulsky try what worked with Orlov two years ago, offering a short-term deal at a well above-market rate.  With the league projecting big jumps in the salary cap over the next two years, it’s possible one of the better blueliners would be open to the idea.

Failing that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Hurricanes look to the trade market to try to fill this spot.  They have a strong prospect pool and a pair of extra first-round picks in their pocket from the Rantanen deal that could help form the foundation of a swap.  Even if they are able to land a top winger and a top-six center, there should be ample money left to fill this vacancy as well.

Examine Goalie Options

With the Hurricanes re-signing Frederik Andersen to a one-year deal last month worth $2.75MM (plus $750K in potential performance bonuses), it looks like they have their goalie situation settled for next season with Pyotr Kochetkov signed for two more years as well.  With the youngster signed at $2MM per year, it seems like there isn’t anything left to do at that position.

But perhaps there should be.  Andersen has only played in more than 35 games once in the last five years.  Kochetkov hasn’t reached 50 yet and his play has been a bit more up-and-down than Carolina would like although that’s far from uncommon for young goalies.  This tandem isn’t the best in the league but there’s a solid floor.

However, that floor can be improved upon.  There probably isn’t an upgrade of significance in free agency but on the trade market, it’s possible some options become available.  Speculatively, Anaheim’s John Gibson comes to mind and he’s a player who they’ve been linked to before.  We know they can afford the short-term premium while they could afford to carry three goalies or send one the other as a salary offset.  This isn’t a must but Tulsky would be wise to sniff around to see if a goaltending upgrade could become available that would make their roster just a little stronger heading into next season.

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images.

Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

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The offseason has arrived for everyone with the Stanley Cup Final in the rearview.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Winnipeg.

Expectations were mixed heading into the season for the Jets, who didn’t do a lot to reshape their roster after a 110-point season in 2023-24 while losing some key free agents as well. They managed to beat that record on the backs of continued dominance from their veterans, progress from young forwards, and an MVP-winning season from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. Despite the best regular season in franchise history, though, they were dispatched by the Stars in the second round and have now won only two playoff series in the last seven years. General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff now needs to get them over the hump with the high-end core he’s already established.

Re-Sign RFAs

At first glance, the Jets are well-positioned to be major players in free agency this summer with $26.43MM in cap space, per PuckPedia. That’s because multiple key pieces are on expiring contracts, though. Two of them, top-line winger Gabriel Vilardi and top-four defenseman Dylan Samberg, are under team control and need new deals sooner rather than later so the Jets know how much of that cap space they can devote to free-agent pickups.

Vilardi is 25 years old and only has one season of team control remaining. That makes a bridge deal improbable and a long-term contract, even a max-term one, all the more appealing for a player who scored a career-high 27 goals and 61 points in 71 games this season. However, Vilardi’s lengthy injury history likely rules that out. Those 71 games played were also a career-high for the 2017 No. 11 overall pick, coming off his sixth NHL season. He’s missed 20-plus games in a year twice and has only cracked the 60-game mark twice as well. As such, the Jets are likely looking at a four-year commitment for Vilardi around $6.8MM per season, according to AFP Analytics. If he’s amenable to that price, they’d do well to get an agreement around there quickly to remove the threat of arbitration or an offer sheet.

Samberg, 26, is in a better position to command a longer-term deal. He’s just beginning his prime as a high-end second-pairing option with good defensive acumen, posting 20 points and a +34 rating in 60 games last season while averaging north of 21 minutes per game alongside Neal Pionk as Winnipeg’s No. 2 left-shot option behind Josh Morrissey. He’s shown linear development over his first few NHL seasons, and Winnipeg should be comfortable keeping him in his current role for the rest of the decade without much fuss. AFP Analytics projects a five-year deal with a cap hit in the $5.25MM range for him. Those projections still leave Winnipeg somewhere in the $14MM-$15MM range to spend on five roster spots this summer.

Backup Plan For Ehlers

The door isn’t closed on pending UFA winger Nikolaj Ehlers staying in Winnipeg, but it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to entice him with an eighth year on an extension. He’ll test the open market to see what’s out there for him, and the Jets will have to wait in line like everyone else.

That means Winnipeg might have to offer Ehlers a seven-year deal north of $8.5MM, potentially even in the $9MM range, per season to avoid him leaving for an environment with more opportunity for him in a first-line role or somewhere more financially advantageous for the 29-year-old Dane. He’s well-positioned to cash in on the heels of a 63-point season in 69 games, the former standing as one short of a career-high. If the Jets aren’t willing to push into that range to keep his services – a likely bet considering he continues to inexplicably average south of 16 minutes per game – they need to quickly identify targets in free agency who can either replace his output directly or help do so by committee.

Their cap flexibility means they should be able to do that relatively easily, but the Winnipeg market is routinely a hard sell to players who have multiple comparable options on the table. They’ll have to pick and choose their desired players and be quite aggressive with them. They don’t have prospects ready to step directly into Ehlers’ shoes, but perhaps someone like 2022 first-rounder Brad Lambert could at least step into a top-nine role and produce a 30-to-35-point rookie season (third-line fixture Mason Appleton is a pending UFA as well).

They could also opt to be aggressive in pursuit of a second-line center and keep Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti, usually Ehlers’ center/winger combo in some capacity last year, as wingmen for a new middleman. There aren’t a ton of options out there, though, particularly after today’s Matt Duchene extension with the Stars. They’ll be trying to land some names in the next tier of UFA forwards like Brock Boeser, Jonathan Drouin, Mikael Granlund, and Pius Suter as a result, without much worry about what forward position they play.

Add Center Depth

Winnipeg’s relative weakness down the middle behind Mark Scheifele will be exacerbated to begin the season. Captain Adam Lowry will spend the first couple of months of the season on the shelf after offseason hip surgery, and frequent fourth-line center option Rasmus Kupari is off to spend the next two seasons in Switzerland.

The prospects of a big move are unlikely unless they’re willing to be aggressive on the trade front for someone like Wild center Marco Rossi, but they haven’t been mentioned in connection with his availability, and it’s exceedingly unlikely Minnesota would consider trading him to a divisional rival anyway. That leaves them with pursuing stopgap solutions like the aforementioned Granlund and Suter, who have top-six mobility, but they need another name or two for added bottom-six depth as well.

One of those could very well be Jonathan Toews. The former Blackhawks captain has spent the last couple of years out of the league as he deals with Chronic Immune Response Syndrome, but has been connected to Winnipeg ever since he publicized his desire for an NHL return last year. The interest is mutual, Cheveldayoff said in January, and it appears the Jets are on the Winnipeg native’s small list of finalists as he nears a decision in the coming days. At worst, he’s a fine fourth-line swap for Kupari.

They’d still like to add another name, presumably a sub-$1.5MM player like Sean Kuraly or Nico Sturm are expected to be, to help shoulder the load in the early going and take pressure off young players to take on center roles out of the gate. Even with a potential high-priced Ehlers contract, all of this should be doable under Winnipeg’s cap structure if they’re responsible with their RFA deals.

Connor Extension Talks

If the Jets aren’t careful, they’ll have back-to-back summers where big-name wingers could depart Winnipeg. Kyle Connor is entering the final year of his seven-year contract, which carries a team-friendly $7.14MM cap hit, and becomes eligible to sign an extension on July 1.

The 2024-25 First Team All-Star at left wing enters his contract year coming off a 41-goal showing, his second time hitting the 40-snipe mark. They have a strong appetite to get something done this summer and avoid the situation they find themselves at present with Ehlers. Considering the more bountiful success Connor has enjoyed in top-line minutes in Winnipeg, it’s likely he’d be more amenable to a long-term commitment.

Finding what the “right” number should be won’t be particularly tricky. He’s a slam-dunk 35-goal man with an extended run of success and even finished top 20 in Hart Trophy voting this season. There’s no question he’ll become Winnipeg’s new highest-paid player on an extension, one that AFP Analytics projects to be eight years at $12MM per season. Amid the rising cap and names like Mitch Marner expected to sniff $14MM on the open market this summer, the Jets shouldn’t have too many qualms about dealing out that big of a raise.

Image courtesy of Connor Hamilton-Imagn Images.

Offseason Checklist: Washington Capitals

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The offseason has arrived for all but two teams now with the playoffs nearing an end.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming weeks with free agency fast approaching.  Next up is a look at Washington.

Last summer was an eventful one for the Capitals.  After a quick playoff exit, GM Chris Patrick made several moves to add to his core group.  They turned out to be some strong trades as Washington went from barely making the playoffs the year before to having the best record in the Eastern Conference before falling to Carolina in the second round.  It’s expected that this offseason will be much quieter for the Caps with their checklist primarily looking at tweaks to their group over another overhaul.

Add High-Skill Player

This was one of the goals that Patrick identified last month in his end-of-season press conference.  On the surface, that might seem a little strange for a team that finished second in the league in scoring but when you dig a little deeper, it does make sense.

Of their top six scorers from this season, five of them set new career highs in points: Dylan Strome (82), Aliaksei Protas (66), Pierre-Luc Dubois (66), Tom Wilson (65), and Connor McMichael (57).  That’s a great spot to be in but it would also be unrealistic to expect that to happen again in 2025-26.  Their team shooting percentage was also tops in the league at 12.6%, well above the league average of 10.7%. That number could very well come down as well after being just 9.9% in 2023-24.

There’s also the matter of Alex Ovechkin being in the final year of his contract.  He had a big season to get the all-time NHL goal record but he’ll turn 40 in training camp; his best days are behind him.  That’s going to be a big opening to try to fill next summer.

So, why not try to fill it now and get the best of both worlds next season?  Washington has a little under $9.4MM in cap space for next season, per PuckPedia, with only a couple of spots to try to fill.  With a bit of roster tinkering (more on that shortly), they could have enough to take aim at one of the better forwards in this year’s free agent class.  Patrick wouldn’t rule out a “big hack” this summer and it’s more plausible than it might have initially seemed.

Clear A Contract

Let’s take a look at that roster tinkering as there are two players that stand out as superfluous when it comes to their roster composition.  Moving out one or both of those would certainly allow Patrick more wiggle room to either take that big hack to add up front or make multiple secondary core additions this summer.

The first is defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk.  More of a depth defender earlier in his career, he has found a home with the Capitals on their third pairing and at $3MM, his price tag isn’t particularly onerous.  However, he’s number three on the right side of the back end and was sixth in ATOI among Capitals defenders this season at 17:40.  It’s a nice luxury to have but is $3MM too much for a sixth defender when you’re already spending nearly $34MM on the back end?  (That number may yet go up with Alexander Alexeyev being a pending restricted free agent.)  Would they be better off spending less on that position and reallocating some money up front?  Plus, Ryan Chesley, one of their better prospects, is now signed and could very well play his way into the mix on the right side of the back end as well.  Since it’s an expiring contract, Washington has a chance to get good value for van Riemdsyk if they were to move him.

The other contract is one that will be trickier to move, winger Sonny Milano.  He was a frequent healthy scratch early on and then suffered an upper-body injury that kept him out for the rest of the season after suffering a setback in his recovery closer to the trade deadline.  His availability to start 2025-26 remains uncertain.  At a $1.9MM price tag, Washington could simply elevate Ethen Frank to a full-time role and use some of the savings on a more prominent player and the rest on a cheaper depth piece.  If he’s out to start the season, he could be an LTIR candidate but that would only be a short-term solution while waiving him when he’s healthy would shave $1.15MM off the books but not the full amount.  This isn’t overly pressing but getting Milano off the books altogether would help them.

Add Third-Line Help

This was the other item that Patrick mentioned at the end of the season about trying to find.  In the final game of their playoff run, that trio consisted of McMichael, Ryan Leonard, and Andrew Mangiapane.  McMichael and Leonard are both signed for next season already while Mangiapane is set to become an unrestricted free agent so it’s clear which spot he’s looking to fill.

There are a few different ways to fill the spot and it depends on what their plan is for McMichael.  A natural center, he spent most of the year on the wing.  What their plan is for him will dictate the position they try to fill, presumably on the open market.  While Nic Dowd is capable of moving up and anchoring that trio with McMichael on the wing, it’s fair to suggest that Washington’s preference would be to keep him on the fourth line where he has had plenty of success in that role.

While the UFA market will have high demand for the top centers, there are enough middlemen available to play a bottom-six role that should keep the costs relatively reasonable.  At that spot, players like Christian Dvorak, Luke Kunin, Sean Kuraly, and Trent Frederic would make sense.  Meanwhile, wingers like Brandon Saad, Brandon Tanev, Eric Robinson, and Joel Armia could all fit.  Anthony Beauvillier, their trade deadline acquisition, could also fit.  The upper end of the price range for this group should be somewhere around $3MM while others might check in closer to $2MM.  Depending on how much they want to spend on the top-six addition, Patrick should have plenty of options to fill this one if he wants to go that route to do so.

Get Younger

In recent years, the Capitals have been one of the older teams in the NHL.  With a veteran core that included Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and T.J. Oshie up front with John Carlson on the back end, that’s not much of a surprise.  They were the second-oldest team in the league in terms of average age in 2023-24 but that dropped to 11th this season.  There’s room for that to go down a little more next season.

Leonard should be around for the full season after turning pro in April.  Hendrix Lapierre, a pending restricted free agent, is waiver-eligible now and given his first-round draft pedigree and a point-per-game showing in 32 games with Hershey this year, it’s safe to say he won’t get through waivers so he’ll either make the team or be traded.  The former is much more likely than the latter.

Meanwhile, Ivan Miroshnichenko has seen NHL action in each of his first two seasons in North America and probably isn’t too far away from being ready for a longer-term look.  Andrew Cristall has lit up the WHL in scoring the last two years and made a real run at a roster spot back in training camp.  And, as noted earlier, Chesley probably isn’t going to need much time in Hershey before he’s pushing for a spot on the back end.

Patrick noted a desire to try to get his team a little younger and he’ll have a chance to do so.  If he keeps a couple of spots available for youngsters or even that opening on the third line (with McMichael moving back to center), it’s quite possible that the Caps could get themselves around the middle of the pack in average age.  Considering where they were just a couple of years ago, that would be an impressive turnaround while still keeping the core of a division-winning group intact.

Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports.

Offseason Checklist: Vegas Golden Knights

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The offseason has arrived for all but two teams now with the playoffs nearing an end.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming weeks with free agency fast approaching.  Next up is a look at Vegas.

After being a Wild Card team last season, the Golden Knights won the Pacific Division this year and made it a round further in the playoffs before being ousted by Edmonton in the second round.  While it’s a step in the right direction, GM Kelly McCrimmon will still have some work to do this summer to tweak his group and set them up for the future.

Open Up Cap Space

On the surface, $9.6MM in cap space (per PuckPedia) isn’t too bad.  Frankly, it’s more than they’ve had in past years in late spring.  But that also comes with several key veterans getting set to hit the open market next month, including wingers Reilly Smith, Victor Olofsson, and Brandon Saad, along with goaltender Ilya Samsonov.  Suffice it to say, those four players alone will probably cost that much or more next month.

So, if McCrimmon wants to add anyone of consequence to his group, he will need to open up some flexibility, something that is going to be easier said than done.  William Karlsson was a logical speculative candidate with two years left on his contract at a $5.9MM AAV but that has been ruled out already.

Speculatively, their top talents are probably not in play.  Their lower-cost ones aren’t necessarily going to move the needle in terms of opening up enough space to do something.  And there aren’t too many in the medium-term cost category, especially with Karlsson off the table.  Basically, that leaves defenseman Brayden McNabb ($3.65MM) and Ivan Barbashev ($5MM) as the only pieces that could be moved that could open up enough meaningful space to contribute toward a signing.

At this point, it certainly sounds like they’d like to open up enough flexibility to do something.  How they create enough space to do so will be interesting to follow.

Work On Eichel Extension

This is something that McCrimmon highlighted at the end of the season as a priority, getting center Jack Eichel signed to a contract extension.  He’ll be entering the final year of his contract in July, making him eligible to put pen to paper on a new deal.  The two sides have already held preliminary talks but getting something across the finish line will be the goal.

The 28-year-old has done quite well with Vegas since being acquired four seasons ago following a prolonged battle with his former team in Buffalo as to what type of neck surgery to pursue.  Eichel eventually got his way with the artificial disc procedure being done upon being acquired and while he has battled injuries along the way, that particular injury hasn’t been an issue since.  He is coming off a career year that saw him record personal bests in assists (66) and points (94) and is averaging more than a point per game since the trade.  He has also become a reliable defensive player, seeing regular time on the penalty kill and landing in the top five in Selke Trophy voting.  Basically, Eichel is an all-around number one center, the type of player that is very hard to come by.

Eichel is already at the $10MM per season mark and it’s unlikely that a small increase to that will be enough to get it done thanks to the projected significant jumps to the Upper Limit of the salary cap over the next few years.  His current deal was worth 12.58% of the salary cap at the time it was signed.  Early projections for the salary cap for 2026-27 when his next contract will kick in have the ceiling at $104MM.  Simply using the same 12.58% figure against that number, that would run his price tag up to $13.083MM per season.  For now, at least, that would make him the third-highest-paid player in the league behind Leon Draisaitl ($14MM) and Auston Matthews ($13.25MM), a pair of middlemen themselves.

That’s pretty high territory for a player who has only reached the 80-point mark twice in his career, this season and back in 2018-19.  It’s not that Eichel doesn’t produce at a point-per-game level, but he does have a history of injuries; his rookie year (2015-16) was the only time he reached the 80-game mark in a season.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see McCrimmon try to factor that into the negotiation to try to get that AAV at least a little lower but Eichel’s camp should know that unless there’s a serious injury next season, he’d hit the open market as arguably the top player available at a premium position which could very well drive the price tag closer to Draisaitl’s mark.  Are the Golden Knights willing to go that high to get something done now?  We’ll find out over the next few months.

Defensive Decisions

The UFAs listed earlier aren’t the only expiring contracts the Golden Knights will be contending with this summer as defenseman Nicolas Hague is going to be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent.  Owed a $2.7MM qualifying offer this summer, the expectation is that he’ll be looking to land more than that.  Given their cap situation, there has been no shortage of speculation that he’ll move.

However, there have also been suggestions that Alex Pietrangelo’s availability to start the season could be in question.  While he was in the lineup following the 4 Nations Face-Off, he was playing through an injury the rest of the way including the playoffs and at 35 with over 1,200 NHL games under his belt (regular season and playoffs), he might be nearing the point where he’s going to be playing through some lingering issues for the final two years of his contract.  Only the Golden Knights know his true availability to start 2025-26 but even if he is good to go, would the uncertainty make them consider adding on the back end?  Would that make them lean toward keeping Hague, even though he’s a left-hand shot?

It’s expected that Kaedan Korczak will get a look at more of a regular role next season but he and Zach Whitecloud are the only other two right-hand shots on the back end in Vegas.  Both are more third-pairing types of players so if they’re worried about Pietrangelo’s full-season availability, they might want to sniff around the right-shot market.  That would cut into their cap space, obviously, but that type of insurance would be valuable.  It could come from moving Hague for a right-shot piece or moving him for futures and signing one in free agency.  One option would be an older player eligible for bonuses on a one-year deal (someone like Brent Burns), allowing them to push some of the costs to 2026-27 and potentially allow them to keep their full back end intact.  There are some options here.

Failing that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them try to add a veteran or two on the open market that could start with AHL Henderson but come up if and when injuries arise.  The Hague speculation is plentiful but that probably won’t be the only headline from their back end this summer.

Look For Backup Goalie

After a disappointing year with Toronto in 2023-24, Samsonov opted to sign a one-year deal with Vegas in the hopes that he’d rebuild some of his value and be in better shape to hit the open market this summer.  While he shaved 31 points off his GAA (down to 2.83), his SV% only improved by one point to .891, still below league average.  At this point, it would be surprising if he returned.

Vegas did add Akira Schmid in a trade on the second day of the draft last year, acquiring him as part of the return in the deal that sent Paul Cotter to New Jersey.  With Adin Hill and Samsonov comprising the tandem with the Golden Knights, Schmid spent most of this season in the AHL with the Silver Knights where he struggled, posting a 3.58 GAA and a .886 SV% in 30 outings, numbers that don’t exactly scream promotion-ready.

Granted, Schmid did well in limited duty in five games (three starts) with Vegas and he did have a good run late in 2022-23 with the Devils but then lost the backup job the following season relatively quickly.  With just 48 NHL games under his belt (just 36 starts), is he ready to play 30 or more games with the Golden Knights?  That’s not a given.

Schmid’s contract makes him appealing (a $875K AAV) but would they be better trying to spend closer to twice as much and get a more proven option or find another Samsonov-type goalie looking to bounce back?  This isn’t necessarily a top-priority need but with the goalie market typically moving quickly once free agency opens up, a decision to that question will need to be made fairly quickly.

Photo courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images.

Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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The offseason has arrived for all but two teams now with the playoffs nearing an end.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming weeks with free agency fast approaching.  Next up is a look at St. Louis.

It was an eventful year for the Blues who made an early-season coaching change and wound up going on a significant late-season run to propel themselves into a playoff spot before being ousted by Winnipeg in the opening round.  GM Doug Armstrong doesn’t have a lot of salary cap flexibility to work with but he will be tasked with making at least some tweaks to his group this summer.

Continue To Reshape The Defense

A good chunk of the back end for the Blues has been around for quite a while now with three veterans being around for at least the last four years.  While they made a key addition early in the season with the acquisition of Cam Fowler following the summer signing of Philip Broberg, there’s still some work to be done.

Colton Parayko isn’t going anywhere.  Neither is Broberg.  Fowler is heading into the final year of his deal but at this point, he’s more of an extension candidate than a trade candidate.  After that, there are some question marks.

Justin Faulk is no stranger to trade speculation and was even in some recent speculation heading into the trade deadline when it looked like St. Louis would be selling, not standing pat.  He has two years left on his contract with a $6.5MM cap charge.  Originally, it looked as if those last couple of seasons could be tough from a cap perspective but he’s still logging 22 minutes a night and is above-average offensively.  With the UFA class not exactly being deep, he’s a viable trade chip not just to clear money but to get real value in return.  With Broberg, Fowler, and Parayko being capable of playing the offensive roles, Faulk could become expendable.

Nick Leddy is entering the final year of a four-year, $16MM deal.  The first two years weren’t bad but he battled injuries this season and struggled when he was in the lineup.  It would be surprising if they could offload the final year of the deal but if they wanted to retain salary or take a player back in a change-of-scenery type of swap, there might be a chance to move him as well.

Torey Krug seems unlikely to play next season which could give them some extra flexibility.  They have around $5MM in cap space per PuckPedia although Krug landing on LTIR could give them up to $6.5MM in additional spending room.  Meanwhile, Matthew Kessel and Tyler Tucker have shown they can be useful players in a depth role but aren’t ready for top-four duty just yet.

In a perfect world, Armstrong would add a top-four defender, one who is a bit more geared toward filling a shutdown role.  If Faulk is still around, they’d be in a good spot of having five top-four blueliners.  Or if that acquisition makes Faulk expendable, they’d have a chance to cash in on a solid trade chip.  Broberg and Fowler have helped reshape the back end but there’s still some work to be done there.

Extension Talks For Bridge Deals

The Blues went with bridge deals for the two players they signed on offer sheets from Edmonton (Broberg and Dylan Holloway).  Both will be entering the final year of their respective contracts on July 1st, making them extension-eligible.  While getting both of them signed would be a tall task, getting a sense of what those next deals might cost would be worthwhile for long-term planning as Alex Steen gets set to take Armstrong’s spot as GM next year.

Broberg was a wild card coming over from Edmonton.  After not locking down a regular spot in the lineup in 2023-24 during the regular season, he played a little more often in the playoffs but even with that, his $4.581MM offer sheet was still a wild overpayment based on what he had to that point of his career.

But Broberg managed to not only live up to that deal this season but even make it look at least a little bit like a team-friendly pact.  He quickly became a top-four threat, logging over 20 minutes a night and did pretty well offensively considering the low power play time he had.  Basically, he lived up to his eighth-overall billing.  Now, it’s fair to say that an extension is going to be a step or two above this rate.  Broberg has two RFA years left after next season so this will be the contract they’ll want to go long-term on.  With the anticipated jump coming to the Upper Limit and the projection that Broberg can build off the year he had, that type of agreement could conceivably push past the $7MM threshold, if not a little higher.

As for Holloway, he was the bigger bargain of the two, taking a $2.29MM contract and finishing third in the team in scoring with 26 goals and 37 assists, numbers that seemed unfathomable given his usage with the Oilers previously.  We saw Calgary’s Matthew Coronato get seven years at $6.5MM without hitting the 50-point mark, a plateau that Holloway already has gone through.  Like Broberg, he’ll have two RFA years left after this contract and it wouldn’t be surprising to see his camp asking for something starting with an eight on a long-term deal.

It would be surprising to see either player sign this early after just one year.  But even knowing how much extra money they’re going to need to set aside for 2026-27 could affect how they approach this summer.

Find A ‘200-Foot Offensive Player’

If this seems like an oddly specific category, there’s a reason for that.  At the end of the season, when Armstrong was asked what he’d like to add to his roster, this was his answer.  With that being a stated goal, it’s fair to say they’re going to go out and try to add one of those pieces.

The Blues finished 13th in offense this season so this type of player doesn’t necessarily have to be a high-producing one, just one that can play a two-way game and move around the lineup when needed.  Speculatively, a 40-to-50-point player fits the bill, preferably a center to give them some extra depth while also giving them options if Brayden Schenn were to find his way back into trade talks.

Of course, this is not necessarily the easiest profile of player to find.  There are only six UFA forwards in that particular point range and realistically, only two of those profile as two-way players, winger Reilly Smith and center Pius Suter.  Each of them would likely take up the bulk of their remaining base cap space, forcing them back into using LTIR for Krug.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Armstrong try to land this type of player on the trade market.  While his second-round picks are off the table for the next three years, they still have all of their first-round selections and boast a prospect pool that has been improved as of late.  That should be enough trade capital for him to work with if he wants to swing a deal to add to his group up front.

Re-Sign Hofer

Joel Hofer has been one of the better bargain goalies in the NHL over the last couple of seasons.  Signed to a league-minimum contract, he has been an above-average backup to Jordan Binnington over that span, posting a 2.65 GAA and a .909 SV% in 65 games over that span.  It’s safe to say that the bridge contract worked for both sides; St. Louis got a team-friendly deal while Hofer got a chance to prove himself and did exactly that.

Now is the time for him to cash in.  That is, at least in theory.  Knowing their desire to add a 200-foot offensive forward and the speculated desire to continue to build up their back end, it’s fair to wonder how much they’re going to have left for the backup goalie position.

Armstrong probably wouldn’t mind working out a long-term deal with Hofer, giving the Blues at least some stability with Binnington only having two years left on his contract.  But the longer the contract, the higher the price tag will be, cutting into what they can spend elsewhere.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Blues pursue a second bridge deal with Hofer.  He has three RFA-eligible seasons remaining and though they’re all arbitration-eligible, they can use the extra club control to kick this one down the road.  A two-year deal would see him expire at the same time as Binnington and should cost around $3MM per season while a one-year pact would see the price tag go a bit lower, potentially around the $2.5MM mark.  Hofer is the lone NHL RFA St. Louis has so Armstrong can push this past the start of free agency and potentially let what happens there dictate what they do with Hofer.

Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images.

Offseason Checklist: Colorado Avalanche

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The offseason has arrived for all but two teams now with the playoffs nearing an end.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming weeks with free agency fast approaching.  Next up is a look at Colorado.

The Avalanche set a franchise record with three straight 100-point regular seasons in 2023-24 and extended that streak in 2024-25, although their .622 points percentage was still their worst in six years. That record was influenced by one of the biggest in-season resets in recent memory, carried out by general manager Chris MacFarland, who managed to give his club a new goaltending tandem and swap out a large portion of their forward group between opening night and the postseason. While the team had an excellent record down the stretch, winning 16 of their last 23 games, they lost a seven-game heartbreaker to the Stars in the first round. With a brand-new support staff for Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar in tow, Colorado has a few items to tend to this summer to extend their championship contention window.

Solidify Nečas’ Future

Star winger Mikko Rantanen was a pending unrestricted free agent last summer; extension talks for him were an item on their 2024 offseason checklist. They now enter the same situation with Martin Nečas, the centerpiece of their return when they sent Rantanen to the Hurricanes in January following unproductive contract negotiations. He’ll become a pending UFA on July 1 as he enters the back half of the two-year, $13MM bridge deal he signed with Carolina as a restricted free agent in 2024.

Nečas’ trade value had never been higher than when Carolina dealt him. The Czech forward was on pace to break the point-per-game mark for the first time in his career with a 16-39–55 line in 49 games at the time of the trade. Even though 55 points was his career average per 82 games entering the season, the Avs hoped that might be sustainable if they plopped Nečas in Rantanen’s spot next to MacKinnon, a higher-caliber center than he had in Raleigh-Durham.

Instead, things went about as expected for Nečas in Colorado. He saw his minutes increase, skating over 20 minutes per game after averaging 17-18 during his time in Carolina, but his production tapered off slightly from his early-season tear. He still managed 11 goals and 28 points in 30 games to end the year, which still would have been a career-high 0.93 points per game pace over a full season on their own, but predictably didn’t click at the well above a point per game rate Rantanen had over the last five years in Denver.

Nečas will still be one of the Avalanche’s better-value contracts last season at a $6.5MM cap hit if he can play a full season, something he’s had no trouble doing, and remain around that 75-80 point pace. However, unlike waiting until after the season started to have aggressive extension talks with Rantanen, they’ll look to kick Nečas’ discussions off earlier to avoid a repeat and force another in-season blockbuster to avoid losing him for nothing next summer. Yet with a rising cap, he’s due a considerable raise. AFP Analytics projects a Nečas extension with a $9.9MM cap hit for seven seasons, considering the salary cap’s projected jump to $104MM for the 2026-27 campaign. MacFarland needs to begin weighing if that’s a price he’s willing to pay with Makar becoming extension-eligible in the summer of 2026.

Create Cap Flexibility

Outside of Nečas, the Avs don’t have much in the way of major contract business to attend to. They’ve had a busy past few weeks, keeping new second-line center Brock Nelson in the fold on a three-year extension with a $7.5MM cap hit. They also got their new starting goaltender, Mackenzie Blackwood, signed to a five-year extension shortly after acquiring him from the Sharks in December.

The good news is they already have 19 of 23 roster spots locked in for next season as a result. The bad news is that they have just $1.2MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, only enough to sign one league-minimum player and carry a roster with no healthy extras. At present, they stand no chance of re-signing their two top UFAs, winger Jonathan Drouin and defenseman Ryan Lindgren. Even one cap-dump trade likely won’t be enough to bring back one of them, but it would at least allow them to add more cheap pickups (or re-sign a few of their own) while having in-season flexibility in case short-term injuries arise.

The few inefficient contracts on Colorado’s books will be under scrutiny as a result. They sent Casey Mittelstadt to the Bruins at the trade deadline to acquire veteran Charlie Coyle to serve as their new third-line center, but he carries a $5.25MM price tag. With MacKinnon and Nelson, their top two centers, now making a combined $20.1MM against the cap, that’s not an affordable number for a No. 3 – even if he ended the year strong with 13 points in 19 games. With only one year left on his deal and one year removed from a career-high 60 points with Boston, they wouldn’t have much trouble moving him at first glance. However, they’d need to convince Coyle to waive his no-movement clause, something he may not be eager to do again after waiving it to join a championship contender in Colorado.

There’s also Ross Colton, whose $4MM cap hit is fine value in a vacuum but, again, a tad pricey for a third-line winger. Moving Coyle and saving an additional $1.25MM in space would be far preferable, but it would be easier to move Colton, who only has a modified no-trade clause and had a 16-13–29 scoring line in 61 games last season. Injury-prone depth winger Miles Wood, who’s less expensive at $2.5MM per season, could also be someone Colorado looks to ship out, but that could also prove semi-challenging with four years left on his contract. He also has a six-team no-trade list.

That might mean Colorado turns to their defense, where their depth is far weaker, as a necessity to free up space. They wouldn’t be looking to deal either of their major trade candidates, second-pairing fixtures Samuel Girard and Josh Manson, purely as a cap dump as a result, particularly without many suitable options to replace them in free agency. They’d be looking to attach an asset to them to gain a more cost-efficient roster player back, even if they’re getting a worse overall player, to be able to spread the wealth a little more behind their elite top pairing of Makar and Devon Toews. Girard has two years left on his contract at $5MM per season with a nine-team no-trade list, while Manson has one year left at $4.5MM with a 12-team no-trade list.

Find A New Power Play Coach

While the Avalanche continued to boast a top-10 power play in the regular season as they have for many years, they converted at just a 13.6% clip against Dallas in the first round. That was 14th out of 16 playoff teams and enough of a margin of error to cost assistant coach Ray Bennett, who had been responsible for the man-advantage unit under head coach Jared Bednar for the last eight seasons, his job.

Bennett has since landed with the Isles, but the Avalanche, who only operate with two assistants (not including a goalie coach) under Bednar instead of the standard three anyway, have yet to name his replacement. That means Nolan Pratt currently serves as Bednar’s lone assistant. This arrangement obviously won’t stretch into the regular season, but for a team with scoring talent of Colorado’s caliber, they need to find their desired option as Bennett’s successor quickly amid other teams filling their AC vacancies.

One name to speculatively watch out for is former Oilers head coach Jay Woodcroft. He was a finalist for a few head coach vacancies this offseason but was passed over for all of them. There’s now a potential new opportunity for him in Dallas after the Stars fired Pete DeBoer, but if he’s not considered for the gig, he has experience managing a wealth of high-end scoring talent in Edmonton with good results and could be a natural fit.

Add Defensive Depth

As alluded to earlier, the Avs simply need more behind Makar and Toews on the blue line. This item is a bit of a TBD based on how they handle any potential Girard or Manson trade.

Assuming they manage to open up a bit of flexibility somehow, they still need some third-pairing upgrades even if Girard and Manson remain on next year’s roster. Big lefty Keaton Middleton is a fine press-box option at his peak but not a legitimate everyday third-pairing option on a contender. Righty Sam Malinski played 76 games this season and, while a pending RFA, should be cheap to re-sign and would be a good value piece as Colorado’s 3RD if so. They need a more competent two-way partner for him than Middleton at the very least, though.

That will presumably be the focus of their likely minimal activity in free agency. While not particularly inspiring, there are affordable pending UFAs like Marc Del Gaizo, Joel Hanley, and Jonathon Merrill who can comfortably average more than the paltry 11:29 per game of deployment Middleton received in his 41 games this season. If they manage to clear up more considerable cap space, they could begin to consider some higher-caliber lefties like Brian Dumoulin, Matt Grzelcyk, or Nate Schmidt to play sheltered minutes behind Toews and Girard on the left side, or potentially even bring back Lindgren.

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images.

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