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Early Expansion Protection News: Capitals, Kings, Flames, Predators, And More

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The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft is an exciting process. If you’re too riled up to wait until the lists are officially submitted in the morning, you’re in luck. As could be expected, information leaks are flooding in on who was and wasn’t protected by their teams ahead of the deadline this afternoon. This list will be updated all night long as more news comes in:

  • One not so obvious choice has been made in Nashville. Adam Vingan of The Tennessean answered a question on the minds of many, reporting that the Predators did in fact protect forward Calle Jarnkrok. With the rest of the eight-skater list all but set in stone with goalie Pekka Rinne, defensemen Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, and star forwards Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, the final forward spot came down to Jarnkrok, signed long-term, or James Neal, an elite scorer with just one year remaining on his contract. It seems that Neal will be open for selection, alongside names like Colton Sissons, Colin Wilson, and Craig Smith. Vignan adds that no deal has been struck between Vegas and the Predators to protect any of those players, with Nashville especially liking to retain Neal and Sissons.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that, interestingly enough, young Detroit Red Wings defenseman Xavier Ouellet was not protected by his team. This is the first real surprise of the expansion process and the first protection news that doesn’t match up with PHR’s Expansion Primer projections. The 23-year-old skated in 66 games this season for Detroit, third most among defenseman, and his 12 points tied that of top-pair man Danny DeKeyser. Yet, Ouellett will not join DeKeyser and Mike Green in protection, instead beaten out by another teammate. GM Ken Holland, who has gotten the reputation of perhaps being too loyal, possibly chose aging veteran Niklas Kronwall over Ouellet. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to bite the rebuilding Red Wings.
  • Another name confirmed to be unprotected is young Vancouver Canucks center Brendan Gaunce. Vancouver sports anchor Rick Dhaliwal was told that that Gaunce, a 2012 first-round pick, did not make the protection list for the Canucks, expected to be a 7/3 format, meaning that the team saw him as outside the top seven forwards on the team. The 23-year-old two-way specialist has upside, but after registering just five points in 57 games last season, no one will blame Vancouver for that choice.

Expansion Primer: New York Rangers

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Until today, the Expansion Draft plan for GM Jeff Gorton and the New York Rangers remained unclear. The time had come and gone to ask overpaid blueliners Marc Staal and Dan Girardi or the underachieving Rick Nash to waive their No-Movement clauses and the team declined. They were also cutting it close should they choose to extend one of their impending free agent forwards and make their expansion decisions easier, with protection lists due on Saturday. New York has one of the deepest groups of forwards in the NHL, even with rookies Jimmy Vesey and Pavel Buchnevich draft-exempt, yet the team had not taken any steps to protect their core. At least not until this morning…

The Rangers announced two moves earlier today, the first being an extension for impending restricted free agent forward Matt Puempel. With term now on his contract, Puempel meets all the criteria to be one of two mandatory forwards exposed in the Expansion Draft, saving them from otherwise having to expose a core forward. The second announcement was the long-awaited end to the Girardi era, as the stated their plans to buy out the veteran tomorrow, opening up a slot on the blue line for them to protect the underrated Nick Holden.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Rick Nash (NMC), Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, Mika Zibanejad, Jesper Fast, Daniel Catenacci, Matt Puempel, Oscar Lindberg, Nicklas Jensen, Brandon Pirri

Defense
Marc Staal (NMC), Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Nick Holden, Steven Kampfer, Michael Paliotta, Adam Clendening

Goaltender
Henrik Lundqvist, Antti Raanta, Mackenzie Skapski

Notable Exemptions

Jimmy Vesey, Brady Skjei, Pavel Buchnevich, Cristoval Nieves

Key Decisions

With Rick Nash holding on to his No-Movement clause, the Rangers have just six spots left to protect a large group of impact forwards: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, and restricted free agent Mika Zibanejad. Despite a unexpected outburst of 40 points in his first season in New York, Grabner is the easy target to point at as not like the rest of the Rangers’ young and mostly homegrown talents. Many Ranger fans wouldn’t have minded holding on to Grabner, at $1.65MM next year, over Nash, who will make $7.8MM again in 2017-18 after recording less than 40 points in three of the past four seasons.

It’s hard to make a case for any of the other six being offered up instead of Grabner. Zuccarello is the oldest of the group, but he’s still only 29 and has led the team in scoring in three of the past four seasons. Zucarello is almost certainly safe. At just 23 years old, Miller has taken a bigger and bigger role for the Blueshirts with each year and is perhaps the franchise’s best building block. He too is a near guarantee. While both Stepan and Kreider have heard whispers of trade rumors in each of the past two seasons, with Stepan’s growing louder in recent days, both are far too good to give up for free and will likely be protected. After trading away Derick Brassard last off-season to acquire Zibanejad, it seems highly unlikely that the team would risk losing him already, even if his first season in New York was marred by injury. Finally, Hayes, who has done nothing but excel in any role the Rangers have given him since signing with the Rangers out of college three years ago, and it would be a major surprise to see them choose Grabner over him.

Thus, it seems Grabner will likely join Puempel as the Rangers’ unprotected forwards and with the decisions in net and on the blue line pretty clear-cut, the Rangers have gone from a confusing expansion scenario about 24 hours ago to one of the easiest teams to project.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Rick Nash (NMC)
Mats Zuccarello
J.T. Miller
Derek Stepan
Chris Kreider
Mika Zibanejad
Kevin Hayes

Defensemen

Marc Staal (NMC)
Ryan McDonagh
Nick Holden

Goalie

Henrik Lundqvist

The Rangers barely have any decisions to make in regards to their protection on defense and in net. All-world keeper Henrik Lundqvist is obviously safe, leaving skilled backup Antti Raanta as an intriguing target for the Golden Knights. Vegas GM George McPhee has stated that the team could select many promising goalies in the Expansion Draft and guage who to keep and who to trade away after the fact. Raanta could indeed be one of those picks.

On the blue line, the buy out of Dan Girardi will leave one more spot open to join go to the team’s best defender and captain, Ryan McDonagh, and Marc Staal, who was not asked to waive his No-Movement clause. The only real candidate to fill that spot is Nick Holden. Kevin Klein, who is reportedly mulling retirement, meets the 40/70 criteria to fill the one-defenseman exposure quota, but is not a viable target for Vegas. The only other defenseman under contract for the Rangers is journeyman Steven Kampfer, another player who would be a strange selection for the Golden Knights. Restricted free agent Adam Clendening, despite showing signs of upside in 2016-17, has already been informed that he will not receiving a qualifying offer and will become an unrestricted free agent, like several other Rangers blue liners, and again it is unlikely that the Knights will waste picks on UFA’s.  For all intents and purposes, the Girardi buyout ensures that no further changes will be coming to the New York defense in the coming week.

If Vegas passes on Raanta, they will likely instead turn to offense and, more likely than not, Michael Grabner. After his best season since he nearly won the Calder Trophy in 2010-11, Grabner appears to be back at the top of his game and could be hard to pass up for a Vegas team that will have a hard time finding scoring in the Expansion Draft and this summer’s free agency class. The loss of Grabner would be far greater than that of Jesper Fast or Oscar Lindberg or any other possible player, though don’t rule out the possibility that the Knights simply take youth and upside over established skill.

The situation in New York has gained great clarity today and now they face one of the more predictable expansion situations in the NHL. However, that doesn’t mean that they will escape the draft unscathed. A deep, talented team like the Rangers seems destined to take a hit next week.

Pittsburgh Penguins Win The 2017 Stanley Cup

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After a back-and-forth battle and a goaltending showcase for the ages, the Pittsburgh Penguins finally broke a 0-0 tie with the Nashville Predators with 1:35 remaining in the third period of Game Six on Sunday night and added a empty netter with seconds left to take a 2-0 win and capture the 2017 Stanley Cup title. The Penguins successfully defended their 2016 championship to become the first team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998 to win back-to-back titles. It is the first time in the salary cap era of NHL hockey that any team has won consecutive Stanley Cups.

On their road to another championship, the Penguins entered as the #2 seed out of the Atlantic Division and wiped out the upstart Columbus Blue Jackets in just five games. Pittsburgh then took on the top-seeded Washington Capitals, knocking out the President’s Trophy-winners for the second straight season, in a hard-fought seven-game series. The Ottawa Senators, out of the Atlantic Division, also took the Penguins to a Game Seven in the Eastern Conference final, but again the Penguins were victorious. The Stanley Cup Final was a face-off against an unexpected opponent, a Nashville Predators team that had entered as the second wild card team in the Western Conference and the 16th-seed overall, but swept the powerhouse Chicago Blackhawks and beat both the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks in six games. The performance of the Predators and the enthusiasm of the city of Nashville should not be understated and will likely be how many remember the 2017 playoffs. However, the Penguins were too much for the Predators, outscoring Nashville 17-4 in their four wins, including a shutout in the series-clinching win on the road.

The Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs, was given to Sidney Crosby. The captain of the team and the NHL’s leading scorer, Crosby notched 8 goals and 19 assists on his way to the title. Crosby became just the third player to ever win back-to-back Conn Smythe Trophy’s, joining Bernie Parent and Penguins owner Mario Lemieux. Other standouts of the playoff run include Crosby’s partner in crime, Evgeni Malkin, who outscored the captain by one point to lead all postseason scorers with ten goals and 18 assists. Both goalies, veteran Marc-Andre Fleury and rookie Matt Murray were phenomenal, with Fleury winning nine games while Murray was sidelined, and the youngster taking over to win the final seven and take home his second Stanley Cup despite still being a rookie. Murray posted a .931 save percentage and 1.87 goals against average in 10 appearance as he continues to develop a legacy as a clutch performer. Chris Kunitz lifted the Stanley Cup for the fourth time, the most among active players, while on the flip side trade deadline acquisition Ron Hainsey, who at 35 years old had never even played in the postseason, made the most of his first appearance. Justin Schultz was incredible as the surrogate leader of the defense for the sidelined Kris Letang, as he fought through injuries himself and posted 12 points during the Cup run. And who could forget rookie Jake Guentzel, who led the team with 13 goals, including an amazing five game-winners. In an ironic twist, Patric Hornqvist the final pick of the NHL Draft by the Nashville Predators in the same year that Crosby went #1, got the game winning goal to deny his former franchise their first ever Stanley Cup.

The frightening part for NHL fans is that, unlike their dynastic rivals in Chicago among others, the Penguins should remain largely intact heading into 2017-18. Fleury will likely be gone, but is no longer the starter anyway. Several veteran defenseman and bottom-six forwards could go as well, but Pittsburgh will for the most part return at full strength in October as they look to keep this incredible streak going. Crosby is still just 29 years old and he and the Penguins are far from finished. Congratulations to the 2017 Stanley Cup champs from the staff at PHR.

Expansion Primer: Anaheim Ducks

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The expansion scenario for the Anaheim Ducks is one of the more fascinating stories of this off-season. Ever since the rules of the Expansion Draft were announced, fans have been wondering how the Ducks could traverse such a difficult process for teams with depth at all positions. That was even before Anaheim marched to a Pacific Division title and Western Conference championship appearance behind career-best seasons for Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler, and Josh Manson. Neither the 7-3 scheme nor the 8-skater scheme offer the Ducks enough protection to emerge June 21st unscathed and they have been desperately looking for trade help since they were eliminated from the postseason. Will they find it? Or will the best player on the division rival Vegas Golden Knights be a former Duck?

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Corey Perry (NMC), Ryan Getzlaf (NMC), Ryan Kesler (NMC), Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano, Antoine Vermette, Jared Boll, Logan Shaw, Sam Carrick, Chris Wagner, Corey Tropp, Emerson Etem, Nicolas Kerdiles

Defense
Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Kevin Bieksa (NMC), Simon Despres, Clayton Stoner, Josh Manson, Jaycob Megna

Goaltender
John Gibson, Dustin Tokarski

Notable Exemptions

Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, Jacob Larsson

Key Decisions

The first decision the Ducks really need to make is what scheme they want to use. Many at first thought that the Anaheim would have to use the 8-skater format to protect four defenseman: centerpieces Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Kevin Bieksa, who has a No-Movement clause. However, as the season went on, that decision became even more difficult. Bieksa fell out of favor under head coach Randy Carlyle and will almost surely waive his clause or, if he refuses, be bought out. Yet, young Josh Manson has developed into a shutdown defender like no other in Anaheim. While puck-movers like Lindholm, Vatanen, or Fowler could be replaced by up-and-coming prospects Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, and Jacob Larsson or a healthy Simon Despres, the Ducks would be hard-pressed to replace the skill set of Manson.

So, the Ducks could go eight skaters and protect Lindholm, Vatanen, Fowler and Manson. The problem with that is then Anaheim would lose a young impact forward. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler have No-Movement clauses, but would be locks to be protected regardless. That would leave just one slot left and two budding stars, Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg, in need of protection, not to mention iron man Andrew Cogliano. Vegas fans were salivating at the though of either Rakell or Silfverberg lining up on the Knight’s first line next year, but after the seasons they had, that seems next to impossible. The Ducks are in win-now mode and can ill-afford to lose one of their vital top-six forwards, especially in such a weak free agent market.

Instead, Anaheim will likely choose to go seven forwards and three defenseman as their protection scheme. Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Rakell, Silfverberg, and Cogliano will all be safe, as will three of the Ducks’ top four defenseman. Rather than lose the fourth for nothing, Anaheim has recently boosted its efforts to trade Vatanen. If they cannot, they will have to make a call between he and Manson, as Lindholm and Fowler have separated themselves from the pack as the team’s top two defenders.

The Ducks will also have to make a call about their seventh and final forward. Other noteworthy top-nine regulars like Nick Ritchie and Ondrej Kase are exempt from the draft, so the decision will probably come down to veteran Antoine Vermette or youngster Logan Shaw or Nicolas Kerdiles. Either way, Anaheim is in good shape with meeting the two-forward quota with the likes of Jared Boll and Chris Wagner both qualifying while not really in the conversation for protection. Vermette had a good first season in Anaheim, but he is 34 years old and has lost a step on his famous two-way game. The 25-year-old Shaw plays a physical game and contributed 10 points in 55 games in 2016-17, but was only given limited ice time and doesn’t have the ceiling of a player like Kerdiles. Yet, Kerdiles only played in one regular season game and four playoff games, notching just one assist. His AHL numbers suggest that he could do much more if given the chance though.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Corey Perry (NMC)
Ryan Getzlaf (NMC)
Ryan Kesler (NMC)
Rickard Rakell
Jakob Silfverberg
Andrew Cogliano
Nicolas Kerdiles

Defensemen

Cam Fowler
Hampus Lindholm
Sami Vatanen

Goalie

John Gibson

If the Ducks are unsuccessful in trading Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson could be the prize of the draft for the Golden Knights. The 25-year-old righty has the makings of top-pair defensive blue-liner who could anchor an entire defense. However, he just simply hasn’t reached that level yet, while Vatanen is an elite puck-mover.

If the Ducks do trade Vatanen, Manson is safe and Vegas won’t touch Kevin Bieksa, nor would would they likely take a chance on the injury-riddled Simon Despres. Minor league-caliber keeper Dustin Tokarski won’t generate any interest either. At this point, that decision on the final forward becomes key. Vegas will be on the lookout to get as much upside as possible in the Expansion Draft, and that is what Kerdiles provides. Anaheim can best protect their forward corps by retaining the young winger’s services. Vegas may have interest in Antoine Vermette as a veteran leader, but it’s doubtful. By default, Shaw could be the pick, but it wouldn’t be a major loss for the Ducks.

From potentially losing Jakob Silvferberg, Rickard Rakell, or Manson, if the Ducks can trade Vatanen and get Bieksa to waive his No-Movement clause, they could in fact leave Vegas with very little to choose from and could escape expansion with largely the same team that nearly made the Stanley Cup Final this season.

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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The free agent period is now less than one month away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Buffalo’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Marcus Foligno – At just 25 years old, Foligno will enter his seventh season with the Sabres organization in 2017-18. While his development has been slow, it’s also been steady, finishing each passing season with more points than the year before. Foligno isn’t the player who showed flashes of as a rookie in 2011-12, scoring 13 points in 14 games, but he’s carved out an important role in Buffalo as a reliable top-nine winger. 2016-17 marked a career-high 13 goals for Foligno, helped along by a team-best 13.4% shooting percentage, as well as his first 80+ game season. As always though, Foligno’s true value comes in his physical two-way game, where he had a career-best and team-leading 279 hits, career-high 57 blocked shots, which led all Buffalo forwards, and was a vital member of the penalty kill. Las year, the Sabres signed Foligno to just a one-year, $2.25MM contract, but after again proving his worth as a defensive forward and top-nine contributor, new Buffalo GM Jason Botterill should have no problem giving the homegrown product a multi-year deal worth $2.5-$3MM annually. Even with fellow priority RFA’s Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson in need of raises, the Sabres have plenty of cap space and will give Foligno what he’s worth.

G Robin Lehner –  The Sabres have no interest in letting Lehner go, but this off-season they need to either commit to the 25-year-old as their surefire starter or establish that they feel he is just a timeshare goalie at this point. Just two years ago, Buffalo traded a first-round pick to acquire Lehner from the Ottawa Senators. In his first year with the Sabres, he was excellent, posting a .924 save percentage and 2.47 GAA… but in only 21 games. Injuries limited Lehner to only a brief showing in 2015-16, but this past season he was able to see action in 59 games and again played well with a .920 save percentage and 2.68 GAA. With Chad Johnson gone, many expected that Lehner would play more this past season though. However, trade acquisition Anders Nilsson routinely outplayed Lehner all season long. The margin between the two wasn’t wide, but enough so that Nilsson managed to make 26 appearances, including 23 starts. The team has nonetheless stated that Lehner is their guy, but actions speak louder than words. The value and more so the term of Lehner’s contract this summer, as well as their negotiations with Nilsson, will speak volumes about their commitment to their supposed #1.

Other RFAs: F Zemgus Girgensons, F Johan Larsson, F Justin Kea, F Jean Dupuy, F Evan Rodrigues, D Brady Austin, G Linus Ullmark

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Brian Gionta – The Buffalo captain may be 38 years old and have over 1000 NHL games under his belt, but he also just completed a full 82-game season and seventh on the team in scoring. At this point in his career, Gionta is not looking to re-locate and perhaps no team could use his veteran leadership and hockey intelligence more than the Sabres, who have few forwards over 30 and certain players in need of mentoring (i.e. Evander Kane). The Sabres have plenty of cap space to play with and are expected to fill holes throughout the roster via free agency, but they’ll have room to bring back their captain who is still capable of scoring 30-40 points and can play in all situations. He probably won’t get another three-year, $12.75MM contract, but if Gionta wants to be back, he will be.

G Anders Nilsson – The flip side of the situation with Lehner is that of Nilsson. Just a little over a year older than Lehner, Nilsson was finally given legitimate responsibility for the first time in his NHL career in 2016-17 and he flourished. His .923 save percentage and .267 GAA were just marginally better than Lehner, but a major step up from his previous performances. Perhaps the Sabres, who truly do need to commit to Lehner or not, are afraid that re-signing Nilsson would send the wrong message, but he has definitely earned that consideration. If the Sabres don’t bring back Nilsson, they’ll have to search for a veteran backup to the oft-injured Lehner anyway. It’s not a simple problem and how Boterill solves it will impact his start with the organization.

Other UFAs: D Cody Franson, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Taylor Fedun, D Erik Burgdoerfer, D Mat Bodie, F Derek Grant, F Cole Schneider, F Cal O’Reilly

Projected Cap Space: The Sabres currently have only $50.2MM committed to 2017-18 contracts by way of 11 forwards and five defensemen. (CapFriendly) The extensions for RFA’s Lehner, Foligno, Girgensons, and Larsson, all of whom will be safe from expansion, as well as roster hopefuls Alexander Nylander and Brady Austin will eat up some of that space. However, even if the cap ceiling remains at $73MM, Buffalo has nearly $23MM of space to work with and if Matt Moulson is an expansion casualty, as has been rumored, there’s another $5MM in relief. That should give them more than enough space to accommodate those young players, re-sign Gionta, extend or replace Nilsson, and still have the flexibility to explore the free agent market for better fits on the blue line than Franson or Kulikov and a game-changer up front.

Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, Questionable For Game Six, Will Play

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UPDATE (6/11): Despite concerns over his health and a lack of any information at all leading up to the game, Ryan Ellis will indeed play in Game Six in Nashville. Not only will he play, but Ellis is expected to start the game and skate with pair mate Roman Josi. Ellis skated alone earlier this morning, but skipped the Predators’ voluntary team skate this afternoon, but was out on the ice for warm-ups looking ready to go. It’s doubtful that Ellis will be playing at full strength, but with the Stanley Cup on the line, Nashville wouldn’t want anyone else taking his place.

6/10: The Nashville Predators face playoff elimination for the first time in 2017 when they host the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game Six of the Stanley Cup final tomorrow night. Thursday night’s 6-0 Game Five blowout put the Predators’ Stanley Cup hopes in doubt, after miraculously sweeping the Chicago Blackhawks and defeating the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks each in six games as the #8 seed out west. Now, they face a do or die scenario with the franchise’s first title on the line.

Unfortunately, they may have to play the most important game of the season (and in team history to date) without talented defenseman Ryan Ellis. While his absence has not been confirmed, the team has been tight-lipped about his availability over the past few days. Ellis sustained an undisclosed injury in Game Five that caused him to leave the game, missing most of the second and all of the third periods. Coach Peter Laviolette nor any other Nashville representative has commented on the nature and severity of Ellis’ injury to this point, but he did not skate at the Predator’s optional practice today. “For what it’s worth”, TSN’s Darren Dreger spotted Ellis leaving the Nashville locker room following Game Five and did not notice any obvious ailment. As of now, that is the only piece of evidence available about Ellis’ status heading into game day tomorrow.

Should Ellis miss the game, the Predators would be dealt a major blow. No team in the NHL operates through their blue line to the extent that Nashville does and losing one of their “big four” at this point in the season could be disastrous. Ellis most often skates alongside Roman Josi, who would have skate alongside Yannick Weber as his right-side partner and the pairing of P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm would have the pressure of being a true first pair rather than Nashville’s 1A-1B dynamic. The Predators would also have to bring a cold defenseman into the mix, as all six starters have played in each of the team’s 21 playoff games so far. Anthony Bitetto would likely get the call to man the bottom pair with Matt Irwin, and did skate in 29 games this season, but hasn’t played since April 8th.

More than anything, the Predators would simply miss Ellis’ production should he be sidelined by injury. The quick-skating 26-year-old scored 16 goals and added 22 assists in 71 regular season games in 2016-17, but has been even more effective in the postseason. Through 21 playoff games, Ellis has five goals and eight assists for 13 points, behind only Josi and Filip Forsberg. Ellis has been playing especially confident on the power play this postseason, and the Predators need that clutch factor if they want to capitalize on any Penguin mistakes. Hopefully, what could be the final game of the season or at least the second-to-last match-up of a highly entertaining postseason, will not be cheapened by a key piece missing out due to injury. Stay tuned for any updates on Ellis ahead of the 7:00 pm CT puck drop tomorrow night.

Rangers Not Expected To Qualify Clendening Or Pirri

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Seemingly minor news in a major article from the New York Post’s Larry Brooks today may have a substantial impact on the New York Rangers and this summer’s free agent market. Brooks reports that the New York Rangers do not plan to extend qualifying offers to impending restricted free agents Adam Clendening and Brandon Pirri. If restricted free agents are not tendered a qualifying offer, they become unrestricted free agents. The qualifying offer process, while not straightforward , is relatively pain-free for the team. For 2017, players must be offered 110% of their previous year’s salary if they made $660K or less last season, 105% if they made between $660K and $1MM, and 100% if they made over $1MM. The offer must also be a one-way contract if the player played in 180 games over the past three seasons, 60 games in 2016-17, and did not clear waivers this past season. While this may sound convoluted, it simply means that the New York Rangers only had to offer Clendening a two-way contract worth $660K, as he made $600K this past season and played in only 31 games, and Pirri a two-way contract worth $1.1MM, as he made $1.1MM this past season and played in only 170 games over the past three seasons, in order to maintain their negotiating rights. It seems as though the Rangers do not want to shoulder that burden however.

This is a familiar situation for Pirri, who was non-tendered by the Anaheim Ducks last season as well. Just 25 years old, Pirri has struggled to find a long-term NHL home, having played with four different teams in his last four seasons. He has a knack for scoring goals, which he was especially adept at in parts of three seasons with the Florida Panthers, but failed to put the puck in the net very often in New York, scoring just eight goals and 18 points total in 60 games. Though $1.1MM is not an extraordinary commitment for a young player with a good shot, the Blueshirts apparently do not feel he is worth that much when they have only limited cap space and more pressing needs to fill this summer. Pirri will again become an intriguing name on the free agent market, as some team takes a chance on an unproven player with one proven quality: goal-scoring.

The scenario with Clendening is a little more puzzling, especially taking into account the Rangers’ extension of Steven Kampfer. Much like Pirri, Clendening too has had a tough time finding his place in the NHL, having been traded three times, claimed on waivers, and non-tendered last season. That comes out to a total of six teams for a player with three years of NHL experience. Yet, Clendening had a career year in New York, posting career-highs in games played (31), points (11), and hits (22). The analytics community was especially fond of Clendening, who had an overwhelmingly positive impact on possession. Unlike Pirri, the Rangers seemed to be a good fit for the 24-year-old. Yet, the team inked the 28-year-old journeyman Kampfer to a two-year, two-way deal worth $650K (just $10,000 less than Clendending’s qualifying offer), when Kampfer is older and far less productive. In fact, the only thing that Kampfer will likely be better than Clendening at in 2017-18 is not being claimed on waivers. Perhaps that is the sole reason the Rangers chose one over the other. If not, it seems to be another evaluation mistake by the New York brass in regards to defense. With more of a bona fide resume after this past season, Clendening too should drum up some interest on the free agent market.

Expansion Primer: Boston Bruins

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

While the Boston Bruins have a legion of talented young players pushing for major roles, they are still a team that is defined by a veteran core: 2011 Stanley Cup winners Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Krejci, Zdeno Chara, and Tuukka Rask. Add young mainstays like David Pastrnak and Torey Krug and 2016 free agent acquisition David Backes to the mix and it may seem like the Bruins would be in a tough position with expansion like many other deep veteran teams.

However, the expansion process, while burdensome for some, gives the Bruins just enough space to protect all of their most valuable players including that entire core. They still face some tough decisions, but none that will drastically alter the franchise on June 21st.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
David Krejci (NMC), Patrice Bergeron (NMC), Brad Marchand, David Backes (NMC), Matt Beleskey, Jimmy Hayes, Riley Nash, David Pastrnak, Ryan Spooner, Tim Schaller, Alexander Khokhlachev

Defense
Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara (NMC), Adam McQuaid, Kevan Miller, Colin Miller, Joe Morrow

Goaltender
Tuukka Rask (NMC), Anton Khudobin, Malcolm Subban

Notable Exemptions

Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, Frank Vatrano, Austin Czarnik, Zane McIntyre

Key Decisions

With Bergeron, Krejci, and Backes having No-Movement clauses and Marchand and Pastrnak two of 2016-17 top scorers, Boston is locked into a 7-3 protection scheme. Chara also has a No-Movement clause and Krug isn’t going anywhere so that’s five forward spots and two defensive spots locked up (Rask has a NMC as well if that was even a question). So which three Bruins get the final spots?

There have been many rumors this off-season, and even before the season ended, that perhaps Ryan Spooner’s time had run out in Boston. The 25-year-old center clashed with former coach Claude Julien and, after a brief rejuvenation, also lost play time under replacement Bruce Cassidy, including scratches in the playoffs. However, Spooner is still a top-end passer and a power play expert and the Bruins won’t just let him go for nothing. If Spooner hasn’t been traded before protection lists are due, he is guaranteed a slot. Whether or not he is still traded after the Expansion Draft remains an unknown.

For the final forward spot, the Bruins face a tough decision, but one with few negative repercussions. Jimmy Hayes has been a disaster in Boston and Tim Schaller is nothing more than fourth liner, so neither likely even gets consideration, nor would Vegas be interested unless otherwise incentivized, as has been rumored with Hayes. Alexander Khokhlachev left the organization last summer to play in the KHL, and little attention has been paid to his absence. The Golden Knights have drawn the interest of Russian players, but drafting Khokhlachev, who never proved his NHL viability in  Thus, the decision comes down to Matt Beleskey and Riley Nash. Beleskey had a career year in Boston in 2015-16, the first of a five-year deal, and seemed to fit in well with the Bruins. After a brutal, injury-riddled 2016-17 campaign, that fit is in doubt and there have been rumors that the team might look to trade a pick to Vegas in order for them to take the remaining three years and $11.4MM off of their hands. However, a healthy Beleskey could be far more valuable than Nash, who struggled to produce in his first season with the Bruins. Yet, Nash is a versatile veteran forward and a key penalty killer who makes just $900K next year. Hayes, Beleskey, and Nash all fulfill the 40/70 qualification and two will be exposed, so the team won’t have to worry about that requirement.

On defense, the decision holds some more weight. If Boston is unable to entice the Knights into selecting Hayes or Beleskey, it seems most likely that a defenseman will be chosen. The team must choose whether they want to protect long-time Bruin Adam McQuaid, exciting young player Colin Miller, or perhaps the most complete player of the group, Kevan Miller. Joe Morrow was once a top prospect, but his time to reach those lofty expectations in Boston has come and gone and the Bruins would be happy if Vegas chose to take him instead of one of the other two. Assuming that doesn’t happen, this becomes a big decision. Colin Miller is just 24 years old and an offensively-minded puck-mover, whereas Kevan Miller and McQuaid are very similar stay-at-home types. Colin Miller was also a major piece of the Milan Lucic trade from just two years ago. However, his development has had its fair share of bumps and Kevan Miller has definitely established himself as a more complete player. McQuaid also is in the mix and could be the beneficiary of club loyalty and a desire to have a seasoned vet behind young centerpieces Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo on the right side of the blue line. All three players meet the 40/70 qualification and have term on their contracts, so again meeting that one-player quota won’t be a concern.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

David Krejci (NMC)
Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
David Backes (NMC)
Brad Marchand
David Pastrnak
Ryan Spooner
Riley Nash

Defensemen

Zdeno Chara (NMC)
Torey Krug
Colin Miller

Goalie

Tuukka Rask (NMC)

The general rule of expansion (and just common sense) is that if you’re allegedly willing to trade a draft pick to move a player, like Matt Beleskey, you’re probably happy with taking the risk of leaving him unprotected as well. Riley Nash played his best hockey toward the end of the season and that effort level next season at only $900K is tough to pass up. Still, the Bruins are unlikely to lose a forward, unless they do make a trade, because of the superiority of the players that they could potentially expose on defense. Kevan Miller is likely the best defenseman of the three, but Colin Miller brings a unique skill set from he and Adam McQuaid and has youth and potential on his side. Vegas would likely jump on the chance to take a young, offensive defenseman like Colin Miller, while there may be several defenseman of similar caliber to Kevan Miller and McQuaid available. Protecting Colin Miller may in fact be the Bruins’ best chance of retaining all three. If Vegas does pass up on a defenseman, it will be to take a goalie. No, not Anton Khudobin. Khudobin finished the season with a stretch of some of his best play since his last stint in Boston, but Vegas has more than enough options for backups that Khudobin won’t be of interest. Instead, young keeper Malcolm Subban could be the pick. Subban has been passed up by Zane McIntyre on Boston’s organizational depth chart and simply doesn’t appear destined to be an NHL regular with the Bruins at any point. Vegas GM George McPhee has stated that the team will likely draft many goalies and a minor leaguer with some promise would not be a wasted pick. Subban would also be the most harmless pick the Bruins could endure.

Chicago’s Impending Struggle To Be Cap Compliant

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Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman has had the uncanny ability for years now to somehow find a way to squeeze his uber-talented rosters under the NHL salary cap. Bowman’s willingness to trade or let walk valued players with high-priced contracts only to replace them to the same effect with affordable veterans and young players has enabled the team to become the NHL’s dynasty franchise over the last decade. However, heading into 2017-18, has Bowman finally put himself in a position that he can’t get out of?

The NHL’s salary cap limit for next season has not yet been decided, but early indications are that it could remain flat or rise only a minimal amount. Based on 2016-17’s $73MM ceiling, the Chicago Blackhawks would be more than $4.5MM over the cap if the season started today (via CapFriendly). That total includes a total of 13 forwards, seven defenseman, and two goalies, ten of which will make under $1MM next season. What it doesn’t include is new contracts for restricted free agents Dennis Rasmussen and Tomas Jurco, the possibility of bringing back veteran defenseman Brian Campbell, or the Blackhawk’s major need for a backup goalie, which will only off-set the cap by Jeff Glass’ $600K contract.

Of course, Chicago does have some assistance this off-season in the form of the Expansion Draft, in which they will lose someone’s cap hit. The team certainly hopes that that cap hit is from Marcus Kruger. Kruger has played an important role for the Blackhawks as a two-way specialist and reliable third-line center, but at over $3MM annually, he’s just not affordable. Rumor has it that the team is willing to move picks and players if it means that the Vegas Golden Knights will select Kruger, but there is no guarantee that Vegas will take the bait. Defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk has been offered up as a companion to Kruger for the Knights, which at $825K for a top-four defenseman would be a major loss for Chicago. However, if the Blackhawks want to protect forwards like Ryan Hartman or Richard Panik in the Expansion Draft, they currently would have no choice but to expose van Riemsdyk. Thus, the team really lacks the leverage to command any deal where the Knights take Kruger to get van Riemsdyk and such a deal may not even come to fruition. Chicago will do all it can, expansion-wise or not, to move Kruger, but it’s far from a done deal.

Even if they are successful in moving Kruger, the Chicago Sun Times’ Mark Lazerus opines that this may not be enough if the cap doesn’t go up significantly; and he’s not alone. Lazerus states that there is rampant speculation that the team may be forced to move a bigger name than Kruger to become cap compliant. Kruger’s salary would (currently) still leave the Blackhawks in the red and even he and van Riemsdyk wouldn’t do it. Bowman could use roster management to get under, but it would leave the team with little to no flexibility in the free agent market and even for in-season call-ups and demotions. Instead, one of Chicago’s core players might need to move. Lazerus knows that neither Brent Seabrook or Artem Anisimov have been asked to waive their No-Movement clauses to be dealt elsewhere and it’s hard to imagine the team trading many of their other No-Movement players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, or Corey Crawford. Marian Hossa may as well be immovable as well, given that the 38-year-old has four years left on his contract at $5.275MM per. That leaves defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson, who Lazerus believes could very well end up on the move. Hjalmarsson is the only high-priced player on the roster without a true No-Movement clause, as he has a limited No-Trade in which he can submit a 10-team list of destinations. This gives the team some flexibility to make a move they couldn’t with the others barring a waiver. Hjalmarsson carries a $4.1MM cap hit, which alone is insufficient, but in addition to Kruger and possibly others would get the Blackhawks where they need to be.

If it potentially takes Hjalmarsson, Kruger, and van Riemsdyk – two of Chicago’s top-four defenseman and a key penalty killer – along with goalie Scott Darling, already a cap casualty this off-season, to get under the salary cap for next season, is Bowman’s system really still working? Perhaps more than any other team in the NHL, Chicago is hoping for an unexpected bump in the salary cap for 2017-18. If that doesn’t happen, the Expansion Draft could just be the beginning of the Blackhawk’s shedding of key players this summer.

Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The St. Louis Blues did pretty well for themselves at the 2016 Trade Deadline when they swapped Kevin Shattenkirk for a package including prospect Zach Sanford and a first-round pick only to make just as far in the postseason as the Washington Capitals, the conference semifinals. Not only did they get value for an impending free agent, but they also acquired pieces that didn’t effect the expansions process, while additionally simplifying their decision on defense. Armed with a large core of forwards in their prime and the likes of Sanford and other ready to replace any potential losses up front to lower-tier players, the Blues are in pretty good shape heading into the Expansion Draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, Vladimir Sobotka, Ryan Reaves, Dmitrij Jaskin, Kyle Brodziak, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Jacob Doty, Landon Ferraro, Jordan Caron, Ty Rattie

Defense
Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Robert Bortuzzo, Joel Edmundson, Petteri Lindbohm

Goaltender
Jake Allen, Carter Hutton, Jordan Binnington

Notable Exemptions

Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Schmaltz

Key Decisions

Not many decisions to be made for St. Louis. In net, Jake Allen is the present and future and is a lock for protection. On defense, captain Alex Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester make up one of the top pairs in the league and are signed long-term. They’re not going anywhere. With young stalwart Colton Parayko exempt, his equally youthful pair Joel Edmundson, who is fresh off a strong sophomore campaign, is an easy choice for the third and final defensive spot.

Where things get a little less clear is at forward. Superstar Vladimir Tarasenko, line mate Jaden Schwartz, and long-time Blues Alexander Steen and Patrik Berglund, both of whom signed extensions this past season, are all as good as protected. After returning to St. Louis and having an outstanding season, David Perron is also likely safe, as is veteran leader Paul Stastny. Barring an unexpected decision regarding any of those six players, that leaves just one forward spot left. Heading into the 2016-17 season, that core also included center Jori Lehtera. However, the 29-year-old played in just 64 games this season scoring only 22 points, a major drop-off from the year before and a second straight season with steep decline. The salary cap-strapped Blues might not mind losing Lehtera and his two remaining seasons with a $4.7MM cap hit. After all, St. Louis did push to bring Vladimir Sobotka back from the KHL, a task they finally accomplished toward the end of the season, and Sobotka rewarded them with six points in 11 playoff games. It would certainly be strange to work so hard to bring the two-way ace back from Russia just to lose him to the Golden Knights for nothing. However, there are a handful of young players that St. Louis will have to consider as well, namely Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Nail Yakupov. Paajarvi has been in the NHL for seven years, but is still just 25. He’s never been able to carve out a full-time role with the Blue and Gold, but perhaps the team sees something in him. The homegrown Jaskin has also struggled to be a regular player for the Blues, but has certainly shown upside from time to time and only recently turned 24. Lastly, Yakupov, a former #1 overall pick, was acquired just last off-season from the Edmonton Oilers, but was never given a real role in St. Louis this year. Yakupov has a ton of potential, but the Blues are chasing a championship and may not be concerned with waiting around to see if he pans out at the cost of a true contributor.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Vladimir Tarasenko
Jaden Schwartz
Alexander Steen
David Perron
Paul Stastny
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka

Defensemen

Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester
Joel Edmundson

Goalie

Jake Allen

It would simply be too strange to let a valuable, versatile player like Sobotka go after just re-gaining his talents. Vegas GM George McPhee would surely jump at the opportunity to add a player with Sobotka’s skills to his new team. There is less certainty surrounding a player on the decline in Lehtera or unproven commodities like Paajarvi, Jaskin, or Yakupov. For the Knights though, certainty is a luxury they can’t afford, as they will surely pick up several project players. Lehtera could provide some veteran leadership and solid player down the middle, but it seems more likely that talented player in need of more opportunity, like Jaskin or Yakupov, would be the choice. St. Louis will also expose two dependable veteran defenseman in Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo, both signed to reasonable contracts through 2018-19, but the Knights will see a lot of good defenseman in the draft and neither player really jumps out. Expect the pick to be a project forward, whose loss may not impact the Blues much, but could pay off well for Vegas.

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