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Trade Deadline Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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With the trade deadline now less than a month away, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  Next up is a look at the Buffalo Sabres.

After another incredible start, the Sabres have struggled to score goals and are slipping further and further away from an Atlantic Division playoff spot. They’ve already completed one deal to bring in some help at forward by acquiring Michael Frolik, but may well need another boost if they want to compete in the postseason tournament.

Record

22-20-7, tied for fifth in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$2.57MM in a full-season cap hit (using LTIR), 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2020: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 7th, DAL 7th
2021: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 4th, BUF 5th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th

Trade Chips

The Sabres have a glut of NHL defensemen on the roster even after selling off Marco Scandella for a fourth-round pick and would like to move out some of that surplus to add more speed and offense up front. The problem is that many of the options on the blue line don’t come with a ton of trade value, unless you’re looking at one of the team’s young core pieces.

Zach Bogosian has already requested a trade when he was healthy scratched by head coach Ralph Krueger, but with his $5.14MM cap hit it is hard to see him actually bringing back anything for the Sabres. Colin Miller and Jake McCabe each hold a little more value than that, but Rasmus Ristolainen likely remains the biggest piece the team could potentially move.

Ristolainen has many detractors, but is still logging close to 23 minutes for the Sabres and has 23 points in 49 games. The 25-year old is also carrying a positive +/- rating for the first time in his career, and is a right-handed option that teams may see as an upgrade in the top four. Unfortunately, he comes with a $5.4MM cap hit and two more years on his contract, making him a tough player to add midseason.

Beyond the defensive group, the Sabres also received a trade request from Evan Rodrigues and they do have plenty of other expiring forward contracts that could be moved. It seems unlikely that the team would give up someone like Casey Mittelstadt even though he has struggled at the NHL level.

The team has its first-round pick for this year and next, but with the playoffs a clear uncertainty any deal would likely have to have lottery protection in it.

Five Players To Watch For: D Zach Bogosian, D Jake McCabe, D Colin Miller, D Rasmus Ristolainen, F Evan Rodrigues

Team Needs

1) Scoring Punch: The team will get Jeff Skinner back in the lineup tonight for the first time since December, but if he can’t reach the same level that he showed last season the Sabres will desperately need to add some finish before the deadline. Skinner has just 11 goals in 39 games after scoring 40 last season. Victor Olofsson, the team’s goal-scoring rookie, is still a few weeks away from a return. Players like Marcus Johansson, Jimmy Vesey, Conor Sheary and Kyle Okposo just aren’t putting the puck in the net enough at this point for the team to reliably create an offensive push behind Jack Eichel.

2) Speed Up Front: GM Jason Botterill was very clear when he spoke with reporters on Tuesday; he needs to find some help at forward. Botterill explained that he needed not just offensive scoring touch, but an upgrade to the overall speed at forward. A name like Chris Kreider obviously brings that kind of impact, but it’s not clear if Botterill wants to head down the rental road.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which GM Will Be Fired Next?

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Despite missing the playoffs in each of the last four seasons, the Vancouver Canucks decided to extend GM Jim Benning today. The reasons for that are complicated—and obviously do not hinge entirely on his postseason record—just as they were when the Minnesota Wild made the decision to fire Paul Fenton just 14 months into his tenure with the team. The inner workings of an NHL front office are almost never made public (unless there is an intrepid reporter like Michael Russo of The Athletic who gets the incredible story), and it is hard to see why some decisions are made.

Still, even the most casual fan can see the seat of specific executives and coaches heating up. When the Edmonton Oilers decided to move on from Peter Chiarelli during another disappointing season, it didn’t come as much of a surprise. On the other hand, it was easy to see why the Carolina Hurricanes recently locked up Don Waddell after he interviewed for another job.

Looking around the league, who is next? Which GM will be let go, either this year or next summer?

It might be easy to look at the teams that have struggled recently, but many of them have replaced their top hockey operations executive over the last few seasons. The Oilers brought in Ken Holland to change the culture in Edmonton, while Steve Yzerman returned to the Detroit Red Wings to bring a new voice to a stagnant team. Florida has gone through quite a bit of turmoil in the front office since their ownership changed but Dale Tallon now seems to be entrenched as a veteran leader.

There are others though that may not be so lucky. The Ottawa Senators are heading in a new direction after shedding their previous core, but if the young talent doesn’t develop as hoped Pierre Dorion could be held responsible. John Chayka was the youngest GM in history when he took over the Arizona Coyotes in 2016, but they still haven’t made the playoffs under his watch and now have new ownership of their own. Jason Botterill was expected to have success in Buffalo after finding so much of it in Pittsburgh, but the Sabres haven’t been able to build a full roster around Jack Eichel despite some outstanding individual players.

Nothing is certain when it comes to front offices however. Cast your vote below and explain just why you think they’ll be the first to go!

[Mobile users click here to vote]

*We’ve used Kelly McCrimmon as the Vegas GM, though he won’t officially take that title from George McPhee until September

Latest On Rasmus Ristolainen

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For some reason, Rasmus Ristolainen can’t seem to escape trade rumors. Seemingly every summer there is some sort of report that has his name in trade talks, and this year has been no different. Today, Ristolainen popped up in reports from two different reporters on opposite sides of the continent. First, Rick Dhaliwal of Sportsnet tweeted that the Vancouver Canucks are speaking with the Buffalo Sabres about a defenseman, and suggested that it was either Ristolainen or Bogosian. Then, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) wrote that not only have the the Tampa Bay Lightning shown interest in the Buffalo defender once again this offseason, but they are “far from the only team.”

While LeBrun notes that the Sabres “aren’t going to deal [Ristolainen] unless the package is absolutely right” it is interesting that his name is out there at all. The 24-year old has three years left on a contract that carries a $5.4MM cap hit, and has carried a heavy load for the Sabres over the last few seasons. While the team did go out and add Brandon Montour last season, it’s not like Buffalo is overflowing with capable defenders ready for more minutes. In fact, three of their veteran defensemen—Bogosian, Marco Scandella and Matt Hunwick—are under contract for just the 2019-20 season, meaning the team will need to find replacements before long.

The Sabres are in a tricky spot, trying to take the next step in their rebuild and contend for a playoff spot. From the massive contract they recently handed Jeff Skinner, it’s obvious that they want to stop selling off top assets just for future potential, but perhaps a Ristolainen trade could work out for both sides. After all, even with all of his offensive upside, Ristolainen has been anything but a lock-down defender during his time in Buffalo. While plus-minus obviously has its flaws as a metric, it’s still hard to overlook the -41 mark that Ristolainen recorded last season or the -143 he has for his six-year career.

Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres Agree To Long-Term Extension

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9:27 PM: It is official now and McKenzie was right on the mark with the terms. The Buffalo Sabres have announced an eight-year, $72MM extension with leading goal scorer Jeff Skinner. Skinner’s eight-year term is the NHL maximum and one only the Sabres could have awarded him. His new $9MM AAV is one that only 13 other forwards have topped, including teammate Jack Eichel. The Sabres hope that this investment can keep those two stars playing together on the team’s top line and dominating the competition en route to a return to the postseason.

8:46 PM: It was widely assumed that the Buffalo Sabres and star forward Jeff Skinner would eventually come to terms on a contract extension. After all, both sides benefited from the partnership in year one. Skinner enjoyed one of his best seasons to date, including potting a career-high 40 goals, while the Sabres landed a surefire top-line forward, who finished third on the team in scoring and found chemistry with young centerpieces Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart. Now, it appears that this speculation is about to pay off. TSN’s venerable insider, Bob McKenzie, reports that Buffalo is closing in on signing Skinner to an eight-year extension, thought to be in the realm of $9MM AAV.

If this $72MM deal comes together, Skinner could wind up in the upper echelon of NHL players when it comes to contract value. P.K. Subban, the only other player in the league with a $9MM cap hit, is currently ranked 16th in the league in AAV. The next players on the list are at $9.5MM, likely outside of the projected ranger for Skinner, but anything between a $9MM and $8.7MM AAV would put Skinner right there with Subban. Among those Subban would pass up include Sidney Crosby, Leon Draisaitl, Steven Stamkos, Claude Giroux, and Logan Couture. Obviously, the salary cap ceiling is increasing and Skinner’s cost is a function of that, but this is still a considerable leap for a player whose last contract was a six-year deal with a $5.75MM AAV with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Whether or not Skinner’s reported new value is a fair representation of his ability is up for debate. What’s not up for debate is that Buffalo can afford to offer this contract and possibly overpaying is better than the alternative. The Sabres are currently ranked 25th in committed salary cap entering the off-season with more than $29MM in space and Skinner is arguably their only priority free agent. Buffalo is a team that desperately want to improve, especially after a hot start was followed by an embarrassing second half and would up in yet another disappointing finish. Letting Skinner walk in free agency would be a nightmare for the team and GM Jason Botterill would rather gamble with his job down the line than almost surely lose it in the present if he failed to retain or somehow substantially replace Skinner. Will the 27-year-old be worth $9MM when he’s 35 years old? Almost certainly not, but that’s the trade-off of every long-term UFA contract. In the short-term this would be a great deal to hold on to a talented player who has been a great fit.

Latest On Jeff Skinner

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The biggest question of the Buffalo Sabres offseason, at least now that the head coaching vacancy has been filled, is whether or not GM Jason Botterill can get Jeff Skinner under contract. The star forward is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and would be one of the very best available players on the open market. Buffalo has maintained since they acquired him last year that they want to re-sign Skinner long-term, but to this point nothing has been set in stone. That might be changing soon, as Bob McKenzie said on NBC Sports last night that the two sides are getting closer:

The sense seems to be that there’s optimism, but not to the point where either side is entirely comfortable with the numbers that they’re exchanging. I do expect that there is likely to be more dialogue between Skinner’s [representatives] and the Buffalo Sabres. For quite some time now I’ve been saying that I think the sweet spot for a number is an eight-year deal somewhere between $8.5MM per year and $9.5MM per year. 

Buffalo certainly wants him back, and Skinner would like to come back but they’ve just got to get the final massaging of the numbers to the point where both sides are happy. So it’s very close, but it’s not done. And until it’s done, it’s not done.

Skinner of course is coming off the best season of his career, scoring 40 goals and 63 points for the Sabres while finding instant chemistry with Jack Eichel. There is every reason in the world for the Sabres to want to retain Skinner, given how they’ve watched talented players like Ryan O’Reilly and Evander Kane sent packing in recent years but still haven’t found much success on the ice. Buffalo needs to start keeping their talent around if they ever want to stop the perpetual rebuild they’ve found themselves in for so long.

Still, an eight-year deal for any player comes with plenty of risk. While Skinner is one of the youngest free agents on the market, he also is a relatively one-dimensional player that doesn’t provide much if his goal scoring ability ever dries up. That has led to underwhelming seasons in the past, including his final one in Carolina in which he scored just 49 points in 82 games and ended up in a trade north. He only turned 27 a few weeks ago, but those 40 goals came on a likely unsustainable 14.9% shooting percentage. If that drops his career average of 11.2%, a $9MM+ contract might be a bit tougher to swallow.

Buffalo Sabres, Jeff Skinner Extension Talks “Extremely Positive”

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The Buffalo Sabres needed to find a coach before doing anything else this offseason. Their new bench boss would be a huge influence on the direction of the team this summer, and now that they have Ralph Krueger locked up as their man, they can move onto other important decisions. One of those is regarding the pending unrestricted free agency of sniper Jeff Skinner, but things seem headed towards an extension if you ask GM Jason Botterill. He was on WGR 550 in Buffalo earlier this week and explained where things stand:

A contract is never done until you get it signed, but our discussions with Jeff have been extremely positive. I think it’s been a relationship that has worked out very well for the Buffalo Sabres, and I think it’s a relationship that has worked out very well for Jeff.

We went through the coaching search here, sometimes people get a little impatient, but we wanted to make sure we went through the process correctly. I think what’s going on with Jeff and ourselves now is there was never going to be an extension announced before a coach was hired. A coach is now hired, we’ll continue our discussions there and get the chance to sit down with Jeff and go over things with how we see him fitting in, and how Ralph is going to coach this team and how he will interact with his players and his structure moving forward. Then we’ll hopefully find a way to get a deal done. From our standpoint, our discussions with both Jeff and Newport Sports have been extremely positive.

Skinner, 27, was listed fourth on our Midseason UFA Power Rankings, behind only Erik Karlsson, Artemi Panarin and Mark Stone, who has since signed an extension with the Vegas Golden Knights. Even with the emergence of Matt Duchene into a postseason force for the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Sabres forward may be the second best offensive weapon available on the open market if he doesn’t reach a new deal in the next six weeks. After struggling to maintain his high pace last season in Carolina, a fresh start in Buffalo rejuvenated Skinner’s career and his instant chemistry with Jack Eichel led to a career-high 40 goals and 63 points. Easily pacing the Sabres in goals means his departure would be a devastating hit to their offense for 2019-20, but handing out a blank check is always risky.

Luckily, the Sabres have put themselves in an extremely flexible financial situation even with their $80MM commitment to Eichel. The team has just four one-way contracts that extend through the 2020-21 season—Eichel, Kyle Okposo, Carter Hutton and Rasmus Ristolainen—and plenty of money coming off the books if they want it to. A deal for Skinner that could reach as many as eight years with a healthy raise from his $5.75MM cap hit would come with a lot of expectations, but also not cripple the Sabres finances if he takes a slight step backwards. As one of the youngest players on the free agent market—Skinner turned 27 just three days ago—and with an outstanding 244 goals in 661 career games, there may be no better bet available.

Latest On Buffalo Sabres Coaching Search

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The Buffalo Sabres won’t be hiring a rookie head coach like Rickard Gronborg this year, meaning the list of available names has been dramatically shortened. One name that had still been connected to them was Todd Richards, an assistant under Jon Cooper in Tampa Bay the last three seasons. Richards has experience as a head coach with both the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets, but it now appears as though he won’t be in the running either. John Shannon of Sportsnet tweets that Richards will not interview for the job in Buffalo, and that Jacques Martin and Dave Tippett remain the front runners.

Richards was the first name that John Vogl of The Athletic (subscription required) listed in his recent breakdown of the candidates, but Tippett and Martin followed quickly afterwards. Both coaches have been out of the head coaching role for a few years, with Tippett last leading the Arizona Coyotes in 2016-17 and Martin fired from the Montreal Canadiens in 2011-12. That doesn’t mean they’ve been away from the game though, as Tippett has been working with the Seattle expansion franchise as a senior adviser, while Martin was on the Pittsburgh Penguins bench as an assistant the last several years.

Buffalo GM Jason Botterill tried the rookie route with his first coaching hire, bringing in legendary Sabres defenseman Phil Housley to run the bench. Housley had experienced success as an assistant with the Nashville Predators, but things didn’t go well for him in Buffalo. The team went 58-84-22 during his two seasons, simply not good enough when they have a star forward in Jack Eichel earning $10MM per season. It’s not time for a rebuild for the Sabres, which is likely why an experienced hand is what Botterill is after this time around.

It is important to note that Botterill is currently in Slovakia with Team Canada for the IIHF World Championship, a tournament that will end on May 26th.

Buffalo Sabres Fire Head Coach Phil Housley

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Buffalo Sabres general manager Jason Botterill announced that the Sabres have fired head coach Phil Housley after two years behind the bench. The head coach went 58-84-22 in those two years and struggled to inspire a young team with a tremendous amount of talent.

Housley, who was hired without any coaching experience, often struggled to adjust his system to his team and seemed to be lacking in his post-game messages to the team. The team especially struggled in goals allowed as they were outscored 546-419 this season, allowing an average of 3.33 goals per game, which ranked 30th in the league. It’s a far cry from where the team stood in November this past season when the Sabres had the best record in the NHL and eventually plummeted to sixth overall in the Atlantic Division with a  33-39-10 overall record. Regardless, many people felt that Housley was likely to be given another year, but the team really struggled down the stretch as they lost 16 of 17 games to finish the season before winning their last two games of the season.

While Botterill and the Sabres are expected to make an extensive search for a new head coach, the team also will give serious consideration to their AHL coach, Rochester Americans head coach Chris Taylor. Other names already mentioned in association with the opening are Alain Vigneault and Todd Richards. Once the team hires a new coach, the Sabres will have had six coaches over the past seven years.

With multiple coaches having been fired during the season and the firing of Florida’s Bob Boughner this morning, there are now eight coaching positions open this offseason.

 

Hockey Canada Names World Championship Management

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We already know that New York Rangers assistant GM Chris Drury will be leading USA Hockey’s preparation for the upcoming World Championships, but now Hockey Canada has announced their own management group. Buffalo Sabres GM Jason Botterill will join two recently fired men, Ron Hextall and Ron Francis as the management team tasked with putting together the roster for the tournament, which begins in May.

It won’t be the first time the name Botterill is seen at the World Championships, as sister Jennifer Botterill medaled eight times at the women’s tournament during her outstanding playing career. The Sabres GM will try to bring another gold back to Canada after the team failed to even win a medal last season. He’ll have a huge number of stars to pick from, as some of the best Canadian players look like they’ll be out of the NHL playoffs this season.

That all starts with Connor McDavid, who captained the team last year and has participated twice already in his young career. Teammate Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is also a candidate to return, and other names like Drew Doughty, Jonathan Toews and Claude Giroux will also likely be asked to attend.

Buffalo Sabres Not Looking At Coaching Change

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The Buffalo Sabres have suffered a drastic slide since finishing their ten-game winning streak in late November. Since November 27th, when they were sitting at 17-6-2, the team has gone just 11-18-5 and dropped out of the playoff race in the Atlantic Division. While they still have an outside shot at a wild card spot if they turn things around, they aren’t ready to make drastic changes, at least not behind the bench. Today while speaking with reporters including John Vogl of The Athletic, GM Jason Botterill expressed his confidence in the work that head coach Phil Housley has done so far and indicated that his job is safe.

Housley, who took over as the team’s head coach before the 2017-18 season after finding immense success as an assistant in Nashville, now has a 53-69-19 record through 141 games behind the Buffalo bench. While there has obviously been great high points—like that ten-game winning streak—there just hasn’t been enough success of late to satiate fans of the team.

The Sabres have taken strides in their rebuild this year and will continue to develop from within, but even with a vote of confidence the coaching seat will remain warm. If they do miss the playoffs this season it will be eighth consecutive year with no postseason action, despite having one of the league’s highest paid players in Jack Eichel. Luckily, the team has three first-round picks in this year’s draft and another franchise player in the making with young Rasmus Dahlin. There should be brighter times on the horizon, and for now Housley will be the one to lead them there.

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