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Wild Still Searching For Right Offensive Mix

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Perhaps a bit buried in Elliotte Friedman’s always phenomenal 30 Thoughts for Sportsnet, the Minnesota Wild may not yet be done performing “roster surgery” up front. They added Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno while subtracting Jason Pominville and Marco Scandella, but that may merely be the beginning of a season-long search for more dynamic and hard-nosed offensive players. Pominville himself is no slouch in terms of playmaking, so with his subtraction the team could still be on the hunt for something more.

Like a lot of other teams who were heavy competitors last season, the Wild have little cap space to play with. With RFAs Mikael Granlund and Nino Niederreiter  looking to consume much of that $15.79 MM the team currently has, they will likely end up with a $3 MM buffer, or slightly less to sign 4 roster players. It’s not a lot to add a huge name, but there are capable offensive players out there who could be acquired on the cheap. The organization prides itself on solid defensive play, but Thomas Vanek is a sure bet to pot quite a few goals. Jaromir Jagr is a still dynamic possession monster and could provide a boost if he were to take his seemingly inevitable paycut.

It looks probable that Minnesota will keep their options open on the trade market. If they didn’t like what July 1st offered, there are options available. Toronto’s James van Riemsdyk is supposedly available and could fit the mold of what the offense is trying to accomplish. Detroit’s Gustav Nyquist isn’t exactly a bruiser either but he would come cheap, or GM Chuck Fletcher could take a gamble on an older player in a struggles-for-struggles swap. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in Eric Staal, but it would be tough to fill that center hole internally. Their defense remains their greatest asset, and moving Jared Spurgeon is still a possibility, but do they trust Mike Reilly or Kyle Quincey to slot up if need be? The team could even opt to move Neiderreiter if another team is highly intrigued by his upside and they see a hockey deal.

Most likely, the Wild will resign themselves to simply adapting their offensive strategies after being absolutely shut down in the playoffs by St. Louis’ Jake Allen. 6 goals in 5 games while heavily out-shooting the opposition, cannot merely be blamed on poor luck and a hot goalie. The team will need its forwards to penetrate the tough areas of the ice more reliably and discourage perimeter play. Foligno is definitely a step in the right direction on that front, but look for Fletcher to add more grit and production up front, whether at the deadline or over the course of the year

Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The St. Louis Blues did pretty well for themselves at the 2016 Trade Deadline when they swapped Kevin Shattenkirk for a package including prospect Zach Sanford and a first-round pick only to make just as far in the postseason as the Washington Capitals, the conference semifinals. Not only did they get value for an impending free agent, but they also acquired pieces that didn’t effect the expansions process, while additionally simplifying their decision on defense. Armed with a large core of forwards in their prime and the likes of Sanford and other ready to replace any potential losses up front to lower-tier players, the Blues are in pretty good shape heading into the Expansion Draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, Vladimir Sobotka, Ryan Reaves, Dmitrij Jaskin, Kyle Brodziak, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Jacob Doty, Landon Ferraro, Jordan Caron, Ty Rattie

Defense
Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Robert Bortuzzo, Joel Edmundson, Petteri Lindbohm

Goaltender
Jake Allen, Carter Hutton, Jordan Binnington

Notable Exemptions

Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Schmaltz

Key Decisions

Not many decisions to be made for St. Louis. In net, Jake Allen is the present and future and is a lock for protection. On defense, captain Alex Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester make up one of the top pairs in the league and are signed long-term. They’re not going anywhere. With young stalwart Colton Parayko exempt, his equally youthful pair Joel Edmundson, who is fresh off a strong sophomore campaign, is an easy choice for the third and final defensive spot.

Where things get a little less clear is at forward. Superstar Vladimir Tarasenko, line mate Jaden Schwartz, and long-time Blues Alexander Steen and Patrik Berglund, both of whom signed extensions this past season, are all as good as protected. After returning to St. Louis and having an outstanding season, David Perron is also likely safe, as is veteran leader Paul Stastny. Barring an unexpected decision regarding any of those six players, that leaves just one forward spot left. Heading into the 2016-17 season, that core also included center Jori Lehtera. However, the 29-year-old played in just 64 games this season scoring only 22 points, a major drop-off from the year before and a second straight season with steep decline. The salary cap-strapped Blues might not mind losing Lehtera and his two remaining seasons with a $4.7MM cap hit. After all, St. Louis did push to bring Vladimir Sobotka back from the KHL, a task they finally accomplished toward the end of the season, and Sobotka rewarded them with six points in 11 playoff games. It would certainly be strange to work so hard to bring the two-way ace back from Russia just to lose him to the Golden Knights for nothing. However, there are a handful of young players that St. Louis will have to consider as well, namely Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Nail Yakupov. Paajarvi has been in the NHL for seven years, but is still just 25. He’s never been able to carve out a full-time role with the Blue and Gold, but perhaps the team sees something in him. The homegrown Jaskin has also struggled to be a regular player for the Blues, but has certainly shown upside from time to time and only recently turned 24. Lastly, Yakupov, a former #1 overall pick, was acquired just last off-season from the Edmonton Oilers, but was never given a real role in St. Louis this year. Yakupov has a ton of potential, but the Blues are chasing a championship and may not be concerned with waiting around to see if he pans out at the cost of a true contributor.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Vladimir Tarasenko
Jaden Schwartz
Alexander Steen
David Perron
Paul Stastny
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka

Defensemen

Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester
Joel Edmundson

Goalie

Jake Allen

It would simply be too strange to let a valuable, versatile player like Sobotka go after just re-gaining his talents. Vegas GM George McPhee would surely jump at the opportunity to add a player with Sobotka’s skills to his new team. There is less certainty surrounding a player on the decline in Lehtera or unproven commodities like Paajarvi, Jaskin, or Yakupov. For the Knights though, certainty is a luxury they can’t afford, as they will surely pick up several project players. Lehtera could provide some veteran leadership and solid player down the middle, but it seems more likely that talented player in need of more opportunity, like Jaskin or Yakupov, would be the choice. St. Louis will also expose two dependable veteran defenseman in Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo, both signed to reasonable contracts through 2018-19, but the Knights will see a lot of good defenseman in the draft and neither player really jumps out. Expect the pick to be a project forward, whose loss may not impact the Blues much, but could pay off well for Vegas.

Snapshots: Blues, Wilson, All-Star Game

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The St. Louis Blues cleared house today, firing coaches Ray Bennett, Steve Thomas, Rick Wilson and Ty Conklin. The quartet had hugely varying experience levels, from Wilson’s 27 seasons as an NHL assistant to Thomas’ three. Conklin may be the most surprising though, as he was part of the team—along with assistant GM Martin Brodeur—to turn around Jake Allen’s season after goaltending coach Jim Corsi was fired. Allen’s second-half turnaround continued into the playoffs and helped the Blues make a splash, recording an amazing .935 save percentage in the postseason.

Brodeur is also not returning as the team’s goalie coach, but is heading up a search for a new one. Many would have presumed that Conklin would have been a front-runner given his familiarity with Allen, but apparently they will go in another direction. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet tweets that both Craig Berube and Darryl Sydor are “good bets” to move up from the Chicago Wolves and take places in the St. Louis coaching staff next season.

  • On Wilson, Friedman believes that he may immediately head to Dallas to reunite with Ken Hitchcock a long-time friend and coaching associate. Wilson was behind the Stars bench going all the way back to the Minnesota North Stars days, and was present for Hitchcock’s entire first run with the team. They won a Stanley Cup together in 1999.
  • The lack of an announcement for next year’s All-Star Game had people wondering if the league was holding out a sliver of possibility of still heading to the Olympics, but it seems as though the announcement will come soon on the host city. After Friedman broke that it may be heading to the southeast this morning, Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Lightning are the likely candidates. Though it’s “not a done deal yet” Smith writes that Tampa obviously has the capacity to host big events. The city has held several huge sporting events over the years including Super Bowls and Frozen Four tournaments. If the All-Star festivities are announced with the full schedule, it likely means any ray of hope that the league will head to the Olympics is finished. Once plans are set in motion for the city, it would be near-impossible to go back on.

Afternoon Notes: Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh

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Chicago GM Stan Bowman insists that his firing of assistant coach Mike Kitchen was not a “warning shot” toward head coach Joel Quenneville. He emphasized their strong relationship as GM and coach and will involve Quenneville in the hiring process for insight. Quenneville certainly has a longer leash than most coaches, as he has almost assuredly earned himself in the Hockey Hall of Fame for his 3 championships with the Blackhawks in under a decade. Quenneville was reportedly taken aback by the firing, and there was speculation he was irritated by the move. Bowman will have a difficult task ahead if he hopes to alter his roster in any meaningful way. As noted earlier, their cap situation is incredibly tight.

Whether Quenneville would survive another early playoff exit at this juncture is pure conjecture. After two consecutive disappointments, if the Hawks start off slow, Coach Q could find himself on the hot seat. Bowman has shown in the past that he is quick to change what isn’t working, even if it means moving away from comfort zones.

  • The St. Louis Blues are also dealing with the aftermath of an underwhelming playoff run, report the St. Louis Dispatch. The overhaul last summer didn’t result in the success they were anticipating. Jake Allen was perhaps the lone bright spot in a team performance that saw them be dominated by the lower-seeded Nashville Predators. 20 of their players are under contract for next season, and RFA Colton Parayko is the only expiring contract that will draw major focus from management. GM Doug Armstrong is looking desperately for a bonafide top-six center with the cupboards bare in the prospect department at that position. Re-signing Vladimir Sobotka helps this position, and if Ivan Barbashev could take a step forward it would go a long way. Ultimately, the team is still in a position to compete next season, but will need to fine tune their strategies going forward. A solid draft or trading for a top-tier prospect should be the focus this summer.
  • Penguins fans are currently dealing with a scare, as Patric Hornqvist is not skating with the group on his off-day. The tough winger has been banged and bruised throughout the season and playoffs, the most visible being the swollen mark under his eye from a skate to the face. Whether this is merely a maintenance day or something more long-term is something that remains to be seen, but his loss would be substantial in a tight-checking series. The also ailing Carl Hagelin took his spot in line rushes this afternoon, slotting in alongside Nick Bonino and Conor Sheary on the third unit. Notably, Carter Rowney also did not skate. He had been inserted in Game 7 of the previous series and performed admirably, helping earn his 4th line multiple shifts at the end of Game 1. His surprising speed along with his physicality have gone a long way toward earning him a 4th-line center position next season with the club. Trevor Daley is supposedly still progressing, but did not take the ice with the team. Considering how many injuries the Penguins are already dealing with, every new bit of bad news is magnified.     UPDATE: Hornqvist and Rowney took “maintenance days” while Daley apparently did take the ice on his own.

Snapshots: Gavrikov, Montgomery, Brodeur

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In the continuing saga of Vladislav Gavrikov, Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reports that rumors of his signing in the KHL already are completely false. Dan Milstein of Gold Star who represents Gavrikov reiterated that no decision will be made on his future until after the World Championships are over.

Gavrikov is still just 21, and despite being drafted in the sixth round has developed into a legitimate NHL prospect. The young defender apparently has two KHL teams chasing him after his solid season for Yaroslavl. After already convincing Gabriel Carlsson to come over earlier this spring, the Blue Jackets could make another important addition to their defense pipeline with Gavrikov. While Team Russia spreads their ice time out fairly evenly, Gavrikov is used in tough defensive matchups and has been effective in the tournament. His future lies as a shutdown third-pairing player, though he still has time to develop even further.

  • The Florida Panthers have met with Jim Montgomery from the University of Denver twice now, according to George Richards of the Miami Herald, and have booked a second interview with Michel Therrien as well. The club is still searching for their next head coach, and many believe that Nashville Predators assistant Phil Housley will be given a chance to interview before they make a decision. Housley of course is still working in the playoffs as Nashville is off to the Western Conference Finals for the first time. Montgomery and Therrien represent two very different directions for the club, showing that they’re looking in every direction for their next bench boss. Therrien has 814 games of head coaching experience in the NHL, while Montgomery—and in the same vein Housley—has none.
  • Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Martin Brodeur will not continue as goalie coach for the Blues next season, instead returning to his post as assistant general manager. The team will hire a new coach who will hopefully be able to continue the work Brodeur did with Jake Allen in the second half. When the Blues fired Jim Corsi—the man the divisive Corsi stat was named after—along with Ken Hitchcock on February 1st, Allen held a .895 save percentage and was the focus of much hand-wringing among those watching the team. Following Brodeur and Ty Conklin taking over coaching duties, Allen posted a .928 save percentage (including playoffs) and was key in the Blues turnaround. Conklin, previously the goaltender development coach, will surely be in the running to take over the job full-time.

Allen’s Latest: Playoff Surprises, Second Round Predictions

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The USA Today’s Kevin Allen listed his playoff surprises as teams advanced into the second round. His biggest surprise is a take shared by many: the four game sweep of the Chicago Blackhawks. He wonders if they’ve “run out of magic” and comments that the team looked worn out. He also believes that Stan Bowman will be a man of his word and certainly look to tweak the roster. The house cleanings in Buffalo, and Los Angeles certainly caught Allen (and others) by surprise. He believes that the recently fired Dean Lombardi may be just what Buffalo needs to get over the hump. Allen underscores the importance of Jake Allen in the Blues’ first round triumph, and notes that Alexander Radulov should get a hefty payday after playing well with Montreal. Allen also sees Ryan Johansen as the #1 center the Predators envisioned him to be when they dealt for him last season.

  • Allen mentions Johansen again when he points out the five reasons Nashville shocked Chicago in four games. Besides getting the best of Chicago defensively, he notes that Pekka Rinne rose to the occasion and was next to impossible to beat between the pipes. Rinne posted a staggering .976 save percentage and gave up just three goals in four games. Allen adds that the Predators were also a much deeper team than the one who faced Chicago back in 2015. Finally, strategic moves by head coach Peter Laviolette played a key role in Chicago’s inability to contain the Preds. Focusing on speed, by placing Harry Zolnierczyk and Pontus Aberg into the lineup made the Blackhawks lives miserable trying to keep up.
  • In terms of who will advance to the conference finals, Allen is the only one of his staff who sees the Penguins getting past the Capitals. He believes the Penguins speed will cause matchup problems for Washington, and result in yet another Washington-Pittsburgh tilt that sees the Penguins triumph. Allen has the Rangers meeting the Penguins in the Eastern Conference Final, dispatching the Senators in six games. Over in the West, Allen forecasts an Anaheim-Nashville Western Conference Final, though he thinks both matchups will see seven games, writing that the Nashville-St. Louis series is most likely a toss up.

Snapshots: Krejci, Stevens, Stastny

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Boston’s David Krejci suffered an injury after a knee-on-knee collision with Ottawa’s Chris Wideman. He will not return to the game. There was no call on the ice, although the play easily could have drawn an infraction. The play can be viewed here. Krejci could not put much weight on his leg and looked pained as he left the ice. The Bruin had just returned from a previous, unrelated injury, and was slotted in as the 2nd line center between wingers Drew Stafford and David Backes. Krejci had tallied 54 points in the full 82 games this past season. His team is fighting to stave off elimination at the hands of the Senators, trailing 3-1 in the series. Regardless of the result of the game, there is the possibility for review for Wideman by the Department of Player Safety, especially in light of an equally scary Kadri-on-Ovechkin hit just minutes earlier in the other contest.

  • The Los Angeles Kings are reportedly close to an agreement to hire John Stevens as their new head coach. As noted by colleague Gavin Lee earlier this month, his son, captain of Northwestern (also John Stevens), has drawn interest from management. Stevens (the senior) started out his head coaching career with 6 seasons for the AHL’s Philadelphia Phantoms, culminating in a Calder Cup win in 2004-05 – a season which drew lots of interest due to the NHL lockout of that year. Stevens was promoted to head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers after the following season, serving until he was fired midway through the 2009-10 campaign. Following his firing, that Flyers team then went on to make the Finals after just barely making the post-season under Peter Laviolette. Stevens earned two Stanley Cup rings as assistant coach to Darryl Sutter during the Kings’ championship runs of 2012 and 2014, after his brief (4-game) stint as interim coach for the franchise. Stevens is known for his endearing “players’ coach” personality and rapport with developing younger players. He has an all-time record of 122-111-34 as a head NHL bench boss.
  • Help is apparently on the way for the St. Louis Blues, who still hold a commanding 3-1 lead in their series with the Minnesota Wild. Both Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera look probable to return to competition in Game 5. Stastny has been out of action since he took a shot from a teammate off the foot a month ago. Lehtera has been out with an apparent illness since April 8th. Stastny potted 40 points in his limited 66 games this season, while Lehtera was less impressive with 22 in 64 games. Both centers will provide depth up the middle for St. Louis, and assistance on faceoffs. Considering how proficient Jake Allen has been so far these playoffs, their contributions on the defensive side of the puck will only make Minnesota’s offensive efforts even tougher. Both players posted average Corsi For just above the mid-line 50%, but each boasts a wealth of playoff experience that is difficult to replace this time of year. Stastny’s post-season consistency in particular should inspire confidence in his ability to contribute to his squad. Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford are expected to sit out.

*The original post had incorrectly cited Dennis Wideman as the offender*

Roster Notes: Haula, Lazar, Oduya

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Lineup changes have arrived for the Flames according to Kristen Odland, as the team will attempt to ward off elimination. Matt Stajan and Lance Bouma have both been told to take the night off, as Curtis Lazar and Freddie Hamilton find their way back to the ice. Hamilton had 2 goals and 0 assists in his 26 regular season games, and Lazar had 1 goal and 3 assists in his 37 games played. Neither is obviously expected to provide stellar offense, but instead to spark energy and infuse youth into a lineup which looked gassed in their Game 3 three-goal lead implosion. Lazar had been held pointless in 6 games while dressed for the Senators in the playoffs two seasons ago, though he was fantastic for the Oil Kings in their Memorial Cup run the year prior. This will be Hamilton’s first playoff experience.

  • Blackhawks’ Johnny Oduya has been yanked from the lineup by coach Joel Quenneville for a potentially deciding Game 4. Michal Kempny is expected to take his place. The 26 year-old Czech defenseman had a phenomenally underappreciated season, posting an absurd 56.1% Corsi For. The left-handed shooting defenseman has never played in a playoff game. He had gone unsigned until May of last year, when he was acquired by the organization for depth. He ended up playing 50 games for the Hawks, despite marginal offensive totals. Oduya’s veteran status makes this a surprising move, although his lack of speed and age were starting to show in a series where the Predators’ forecheck was relentless.
  • Erik Haula will not play for the Minnesota Wild tonight in their game against the Blues. Haula was held pointless and registered a -2 through 3 games. Coach Bruce Boudreau did not confirm who would take his spot, as he had been playing on the top unit with Mikko Koivu. This is a surprising move despite his struggles in the series, as the forward had been producing at a decent clip before running into the red-hot Jake Allen. There has been no word as to who will replace his position on the left wing.

Minnesota And The Wild Art Of The 0-2 Comeback

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The Minnesota Wild are in a predicament. They have out-shot their opponent 76-53 through 137 minutes of hockey, created the majority of the scoring chances, and dominated advanced stats. But they are down 0-2 in their series, largely due to the heroics of St. Louis net-minder Jake Allen. Per Elias Sports, teams that go down in a series 2-0 only have a 14.1% chance of winning the series. After all, winning 4 of 5 after is no simple task. This is only made more difficult by the fact that Minnesota lost its home ice advantage and has to split in St. Louis to avoid a sweep.

In Minnesota’s current situation, the main contributing factor to the struggles is a snakebitten offensive core. A few players have been on cold streaks, including captain Mikko Koivu who hasn’t scored in his last 16. Perhaps more important is the strength of St. Louis defense over the last 10 games, only surrendering 21 goals. In order for Minnesota to regain a foothold, one of these trends will need to reverse. A goal per game, even against a prime Patrick Roy, simply isn’t good enough.

All over but the crying, right? Well, not quite. Although a 14.1% chance sounds like a longshot, there are more factors to success than one might consider. PDO can really only trend upwards from here, and the bounces are far more likely to turn than not. There is due reason to suspect the unlikely. Minnesota is intimately familiar with the back of the twine – they finished only 2 behind Pittsburgh at 183 Goals For on the season, despite a roster with far fewer superstar names. Devan Dubnyk actually had a better season than Jake Allen 5v5, and is certainly capable of stealing a game of his own. And St. Louis has had wild swings of fortune just as often as Minnesota has. Minnesota, evidenced by a wonderful Wilderness writeup, was indeed beginning to trend back upward. The team stumbled mightily through early March, but recovered quite nicely in the home stretch – winning their last 4 games in convincing fashion.  By their relatively dominant, but ultimately fruitless, on-ice performances in the first 2 games, one might believe these successes were not aberrations.

If we discount the overblown importance of home ice advantage in modern hockey, the situation seems far more salvageable than many observers might believe. As Bruce Boudreau said, “it’s not as dire as they think.” They just should be sure to win the next one.

Blues Sign Evan Fitzpatrick To Entry-Level Deal

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Sunday is no day of rest for the St. Louis Blues and GM Doug Armstrong, as the team announced this morning that they have come to terms on entry level contract with young goaltender Evan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was a second-round selection of the team in 2016 from the QMJHL’s Sherbrooke Phoenix. The terms of the deal have not yet been announced.

Though he still has quite a bit of development left to go at age 19, the Blues have to be a bit discouraged with Fitzpatrick’s lack of improvement in 2016-17. The 6’3″ Halifax native was the fourth goalie off the board last year, as the Blues swooped in and used the 59th overall pick on him. Many believed that they had gotten good value for Fitzpatrick, who was coming off a slightly disappointing season as the starter for the Phoenix that had caused him to fall in the pre-draft rankings. Fitzpatrick posted a 3.42 GAA and .896 SV% in 54 games for Sherbrooke in 2015-16, but his play significantly increased in the QMJHL playoffs, and perhaps Armstrong and company saw that trend continuing upward this season. Instead, Fitzpatrick had a 3.46 GAA and .899 Sv%, almost identical to last season, but won fewer games as Sherbrooke finished at the bottom of the West Division.

Fitzpatrick’s signing does not imply that he will be with the Blues or their AHL affiliate, the Chicago Wolves, any time soon, but it is a step toward working closer with the young goalkeeper in hopes of turning his game around. Fitzpatrick is a physically talented goalie who seems to be struggling to develop the much-needed finesse aspects of the position, but some extra work this summer could have him back on track in 2017-18. St. Louis needs to see some improvement out of Fitzpatrick, who is still regarded as the organization’s top goalie prospect. Though young starter Jake Allen is just 26, he has had ups and downs in his first season with full control over the net, and the Blues need to have a young heir in mind just in case. At the AHL level, Jordan Binnington and Ville Husso have both played relatively well, but lack that promise that a high pick offers. If St. Louis doesn’t think either of the pair are the future, it falls on Fitzpatrick to be that next man up in the organization.

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