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Expansion Draft Issues: Several Teams Have Moves To Make Before July 17

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The trade deadline may have come and gone, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be any more trades over the courses of the remainder of the league year. The NHL Expansion Draft is right around the corner, with protection lists due on July 17, ahead of the draft on July 21. By that time, all 30 participating teams must be able to submit a protection list that complies with the exposure requirements of the draft. As a reminder, teams may protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie or eight skaters and a goalie. However, they must also expose two forwards and one defenseman signed beyond this season and who have played in 27 NHL games this season or 54 games over the past two seasons, as well as a goaltender under team control beyond this season.

For many teams, this is easier said than done though. Long-term forwards and defensemen with considerable games played who are also deemed expendable are not all that common. With the trade deadline completed, teams are stuck with the group that they have unless they decide to make a trade in the time between their regular season end or postseason elimination and the week of the draft. Some can solve their problems internally, while others may be more hard pressed. Based on their most likely protection scheme, here are the teams with work to do:

Calgary Flames

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Solutions: The Flames may be having a difficult season, but they have a talented top-six who are all signed long-term. Except, that’s where the term forwards end. If Calgary cannot convince Milan Lucic to waive his No-Movement Clause, the team will be missing both of their required forwards for exposure by protecting Looch and the top-six. Even if Lucic does waive, the team will need to make another forward available to Seattle. RFA Dillon Dube meets the games played criteria, but the team is likely to protect the young forward or, if not, will not do anything to make him more attractive to the Kraken. That leaves fellow RFA Dominik Simon and impending UFA’s Derek Ryan, Josh Leivo, and Joakim Nordstrom, as well as Brett Ritchie with six more games played, as other names who could earn extensions due to otherwise meeting the exposure criteria.

Likelihood of a Trade: Medium. With so many affordable, bottom-six role players that the team could hand new one-year deals, the Flames have options. However, if Lucic does not waive and the team feels pressured to re-sign two of those players, they may look for outside help rather than bring back too much of a forward corps that has underachieved this year.

Colorado Avalanche

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Solutions: As one of the top scoring team’s in the NHL, the Avalanche will want to keep as much of their forward corps as they can and with the likes of Gabriel Landeskog and Brandon Saad heading to free agency and not in need of protection, the team can do just that. However, if Colorado does protect their top nine scoring forwards minus Landeskog and Saad, that leaves them with, at best, one forward to expose and zero if they choose to protect both Valeri Nichushkin and J.T. Compher. If the Avs do choose to protect the duo, that should leave RFA Tyson Jost unprotected, who they could extend in order to meet the exposure requirement. However, Jost has arbitration rights and may not rush into a new deal. Other candidates to re-sign would be UFA’s Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Carl Soderberg, or Matt Calvert. Fortunately, the Avalanche have an even easier internal fix and that is simply playing Logan O’Connor five more times before the end of the season.

Likelihood of a Trade: Low. Between playing O’Connor and exposing one of Nichushkin or Compher, Colorado may not have to make any move at all. If they do, they have options. Who wouldn’t want to re-sign in Colorado right now, even if its only for the purpose of being expansion draft fodder.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Solutions: It’s easy to guess six forwards that the Blue Jackets will protect, but the seventh is a bit trickier. Do they expose star Gustav Nyquist, who has missed the whole season due to injury and is on a substantial contract and on the wrong side of 30? Or do they expose Eric Robinson, who has been a hard-working depth presence this season but has limited upside? Well, if they choose to protect either one, it only leave the other as meeting exposure criteria. Only if both are exposed is Columbus good to go and that scenario seems unlikely. However, the only forward currently meeting the requirements other than term is RFA Kevin Stenlund, though UFA Mikhail Grigorenko requires only two more games played (and a new contract).

Likelihood of a Trade: High. The Blue Jackets surely want to bring Stenlund back, but he has arbitration rights and may not be keen to sign quickly just to help with expansion requirements. If a Stenlund deal can’t be reached sooner rather than later, Columbus may not have a choice but to bring someone in from the outside. A Grigorenko extension seems unlikely, as does exposing both Nyquist and Robinson.

Dallas Stars

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Solutions: The Stars’ protection scheme at forward is fairly obvious, as they have seven core forwards who stand out above the rest. However, those seven are also the only regular forwards with term on their contracts. Of all other expansion-draft eligible forwards for Dallas, only Joel L’Esperance has additional time on his current deal and he cannot reach the games played requirement. As a result, the Stars must find two forwards to expose, whereas most of these other problematic teams can at least scrounge up one forward. Among the options to re-sign are veteran UFA’s Blake Comeau and Andrew Cogliano or younger UFA’s Tanner Kero and Justin Dowling. However, it may be easier to re-up an RFA like Jason Dickinson or, with three more games, Nicholas Caamano. 

Likelihood of a Trade: Medium. The Stars have a number of options, many of whom will likely re-sign at some point anyhow or else Dallas will have to rebuild their bottom-six from scratch. However, with two slots to fill there is always a chance that acquiring a player could be easier than negotiating a pair of early extensions.

New Jersey Devils

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Options: A rebuilding Devils team has a number of regular forwards who are ineligible for the draft and many others, protected or not, who are restricted free agents. What they lack is many term forwards, especially of the the expendable variety. While New Jersey could go in a few different direction with their protected list, the reality is simply that they have only five draft-eligible forwards who are signed beyond this season and at least four of those are locks to be protected. The x-factor is Andreas Johnsson. The first-year Devil has fallen well short of expectations and it would not be a surprise to see him exposed, leaving the team with just one spot to fill to meet the quota. However, if they are determined to give Johnsson a second chance and not lose him for nothing, then that becomes two slots that must be filled. The other problem in New Jersey is that the team doesn’t want to give Seattle any added incentive to steal some of their promising young players. Michael McLeod, Janne Kuokkanen, Yegor Sharangovich, and Nathan Bastian would all meet the exposure criteria if extended, but it’s safe to assume that the Devils will protect two or three of that group and may not be too excited to lose any of the others. Nick Merkley, who requires seven more games played and a new deal, could be seen as more expendable and may be okay with accepting a quick extension, even if it just for expansion purposes.

Likelihood of a Trade: High. With the possibility that New Jersey could protect Johnsson and, in any scenario, will want to steer the Kraken away from their young forwards if at all possible, the Devils seem like a prime candidate to bring in some outside help with meeting exposure criteria.

San Jose Sharks

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Options: Much like the Stars, the Sharks are not an elite team right now, but possess a solid group of top-six forwards who will all be protected. Also like Dallas though, the team has complete lack of long-term commitment to any forward outside of that group. The only other eligible forward signed beyond this season is Jayden Halbgewachs, who has not played a single NHL game, nevertheless enough to meet the requirement. There is not a great list of internal options to re-sign either. Of the players who would meet exposure criteria with an extension, Patrick Marleau is likely to retire, Marcus Sorensen seems to need a fresh start in free agency, and one of Rudolfs Balcers and Dylan Gambrell is likely to be the seventh forward protected. That really leaves UFA Matt Nieto as the lynchpin. If the Sharks can re-up Nieto and whoever they don’t protect between Balcers and Gambrell, they are good to go. If Nieto isn’t keen to re-sign and if Balcers or Gambrell wish to pursue arbitration, the Sharks will be stuck without any forwards to expose.

Likelihood of a Trade: High. The Sharks are in as tough a position as any team on this list. If left exposed, Washington native Gambrell seems like a very likely pick by Seattle, but San Jose needs to meet the exposure quota all the same. That could involve bringing in one if not two forwards before the draft. There simply aren’t many other options on the roster.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Problem Area: Forward OR Defense (Scheme-Dependent)

Internal Options: It should come as no surprise that a team build entirely on a small, expensive core group and veterans on affordable, one-year deals is not well-prepared for the expansion draft. Of the ten Toronto skaters who currently meet the exposure criteria, four are forwards that will be protected in any scenario and three are defensemen that will be protected in any scenario. This leaves Alex Kerfoot at forward and Justin Holl on defense(with Pierre Engvall as the odd man out will likely be exposed regardless); only one can be protected and the other is the most likely Leaf to be selected. If the Maple Leafs value Holl more than Kerfoot, they will go with eight skaters in their protection list. In this scenario, they will not have any defensemen who meet the exposure criteria. Fortunately, any of RFA Travis Dermott or UFA’s Zach Bogosian or Ben Hutton could re-sign and fill that role. Alternatively, if the team values Kerfoot more than Holl, they will go with the standard 7-3 protection scheme. This would allow them to protect Kerfoot as well as extend and protect others like Zach Hyman, Joe Thornton, or Jason Spezza. Those three would all meet exposure requirements as well with a new deal, but Toronto will not offer them up to Seattle. Wayne Simmonds, Riley Nash, or Alex Galchenyuk could be more likely though. Unfortunately, these are all unrestricted free agents and not as easy to re-sign before the off-season as a restricted free agent. The Leafs could find themselves in a bind as a result.

Likelihood of a Trade: Low. There is still so much to be determined about the Leafs’ approach to the draft and they have options either way and player who would likely be eager to re-sign. It’s not a straightforward situation by any means, but they should be able to figure it out without taking the risk of adding salary that they can’t spare by making a trade.

Winnipeg Jets

Problem Area: Forward

Internal Options: The Jets are known for their depth at forward and eight of their top-nine meet the exposure criteria as a result, with RFA Andrew Copp not fitting the bill but almost certain to be protected anyway. The decision for the seventh and final protection slot is likely between the recently-extended Adam Lowry and upstart Mason Appleton. Whoever isn’t protected fills one of the two exposure roles. However, no one else is currently eligible. Extension candidates include UFA’s Mathieu Perreault, Trevor Lewis, and Nate Thompson, but Winnipeg may not necessarily want to commit further to any of those three. The solution: Jansen Harkins is signed through next season and requires just four more games to meet exposure level.

Likelihood of Trade: Low. Just play Harkins and move on. The list of teams in trouble is already long enough.

 

Trade Deadline Primer: Dallas Stars

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Although we’re just two months into the season, the trade deadline is already less than a month away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Dallas Stars.

The simple truth is that the Dallas Stars cannot be true buyers at the deadline. Yes, the team currently has $4MM in unused LTIR space, but that will disappear when starting goalie Ben Bishop returns to action. Without any cap space, any trade that the team makes will have to be a hockey deal with a salary going out in order to bring a salary in. With those types of deals more unlikely this season than in most years, the Stars might not have much choice at the deadline.

True, they are within reach of a playoff spot and could certainly stand to improve their roster. However, this is a team that just won the Western Conference last season and hopes to have Tyler Seguin and Bishop back this year. Those internal additions may be enough to get them to the postseason and make them a potential threat. Even then, the Stars likely face a Stanley Cup rematch with the Tampa Bay Lightning right away. There simply isn’t enough upside to be buyers, even if there was flexibility.

Could they be sellers? Possibly, but they don’t have much to offer. The team would likely gain more from keeping their roster together in hopes of making the playoffs and even re-signing some of their impending free agents rather than dealing them for minor returns. Again, Dallas could try to peddle some of their impending UFA’s in order to clear space for an addition, but most teams aren’t looking to add salary this year unless it is attached to a top quality player. Those are in short supply among the Stars’ expiring contracts.

They likely won’t touch their term contracts, either. This is a team that found success in the postseason last year and returned virtually the same roster this year and will be back together again next year. Injuries and a start slowed by COVID Protocol has impacted Dallas this season and, while their team isn’t perfect, they could be an off-season piece or two away from getting back to Stanley Cup Final in no time.

So for now, they should probably just stand pat.

Record

9-9-7, .500, 4th in Central Division

Deadline Status

Stand Pat

Deadline Cap Space

$0MM in full-season space (LTIR), 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: DAL 1st, DAL 2nd, DAL 3rd, DAL 4th, DAL 5th, DAL 6th, DAL 7th
2022: DAL 1st, DAL 2nd, DAL 3rd, DAL 4th, DAL 5th, DAL 6th, DAL 7th

Trade Chips

In deciding whether or not to move players off of their current roster, the Stars have options but lack upside. With only a handful of impending free agents, most of whom are merely bottom of the lineup players at best, Dallas may be better off keeping their group together and hoping to sneak into the playoffs.

If Dallas does decide to sell, their most valuable piece will be defenseman Jamie Oleksiak. A big, physical defender – the team’s current hits leader – who skates well and can play big minutes, Oleksiak is a solid addition to any team looking to stabilize their blue line with a strong defensive presence. In a rental market that is severely lacking in defensive talent, Oleksiak could return a nice package, especially given his reasonable price tag. The caveat though is that Dallas has traded Oleksiak once before, only to bring him back and have both sides realize that he is a great fit as a reliable defensive complement to the Stars’ offensive-minded blue line. If there is mutual interest in an extension and Dallas remains close to a playoff spot, they likely hold on to Oleksiak.

Versatile defenseman Mark Pysyk makes more sense to move. In his first season in Dallas on a one-year “show me” deal, Pysyk has failed to do just that. The Stars’ No. 6 defenseman spot has been split between Pysyk and Hanley this season, with neither doing enough to seize the consistent role. Both have been unproductive on offensive and largely invisible on defense while playing minimal minutes. Pysyk at least brings more experience playing in a regular role and has also experimented with lining up at forward, which could be especially valuable to teams down the stretch and in the postseason who want to avoid depth issues caused by possible COVID-19 restrictions. At $750K, Pysyk is affordable in cap terms and should be cheap to acquire as well.

Up front, the Stars may be willing to part with veterans Andrew Cogliano and Blake Comeau, but there may not be much interest in the duo. Both have been consistent and dependable two-way players throughout their careers, but their play this season has lacked offensive upside. The pair have totaled just four goals and 13 points in 46 combined games. In a cap-strapped climate, Cogliano’s $3.25MM and even Comeau’s $2.4MM may be too rich for players that would have to fight for top-nine jobs on a contender. They are more likely to move if Dallas is just swapping contracts to bring in new blood for the stretch run.

Given that Dallas was a Stanley Cup finalist just last year, the team is unlikely to make any drastic moves this season with their core players, all of whom have term remaining on their respective comments. Names like John Klingberg and Alexander Radulov are occasionally bandied about, but trading either in-season is both unlikely and ill-advised for the Stars. If they were to make a surprise move, it could be in goal. With young Jake Oettinger holding his own in net, the Stars could decide to move current starter Anton Khudobin if actual starter Bishop is healthy before the deadline. Khudobin is set to be exposed in this summer’s Expansion Draft and should be a strong candidate for selection. With both Landon Bow and Colton Point satisfying the goalie exposure requirement, the Stars could instead trade Khudobin to a team with needs in net this season rather than potentially lose him for nothing in expansion. A healthy Bishop backed up by Oettinger should be enough for the Stars the rest of the way this season and moving forward.

Others to Watch For: D Joel Hanley ($700K, UFA), D Taylor Fedun ($737.5K, UFA), F Tanner Kero ($762.5K, UFA), F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Defenseman – If the Stars can find a way to move contracts around and open up cap space, it will likely leave room for just one acquisition. While they are only middle-of-the-road when it comes to scoring and could use a spark up front, that might come in the form of a healthy Seguin. There is no one coming to take over their No. 6 defenseman role, a spot where Dallas has received no production from this season. A reliable blue liner to improve the starting defensive corps would be a key addition. If they can find a defenseman with some offensive upside and power play experience, that would be even better.

2) Term Forward – While it would again require shuffling salaries, which may make it a more likely move in the early off-season, the Stars at some point could look to add a forward who they can expose in the upcoming Expansion Draft. Currently, with the assumed protection scheme, the Stars are short both forwards that meet the games played and term requirements that the expansion quota demands. Their options to fill those spots internally are to re-sign UFA’s Cogliano and Comeau (unlikely) or RFA Jason Dickinson. RFA Nick Caamano will also be eligible with eight more games played. However, extending Dickinson or Caamano will only make them more attractive to the Seattle Kraken. Either of the players, the arbitration-eligible Dickinson specifically, may also not want to rush into an extension before the drat. As a result, the Stars could choose instead to add another eligible forward to expose.

Snapshots: King Clancy Trophy, Kucherov, Bishop, Holzapfel

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Now that the NHL has reached the conference championship phase of the playoffs, so too can the NHL awards, which are expected to be handed out day-by-day over the next couple of weeks. First up is expected to be the King Clancy Trophy, awarded to the player who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice and has made a noteworthy humanitarian contribution in his community. The trophy will be awarded this evening before the start of Game 1 between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Dallas Stars. The three finalists for the awards are Minnesota Wild’s Matt Dumba, New York Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist and New Jersey Devils’ P.K. Subban.

Dumba has been committed to racial and social justice and the Hockey is for Everyone initiative and helped form the Hockey Diversity Alliance with seven current and former NHL players. Lundqvist supports several different initiatives, including aid for children’s health, education, underprivileged youth, Hockey Fights Cancer and the Make a Wish Foundation. Subban also supports several groups, including initiatives for underprivileged youth, medical support and promoting racial and social injustice.

  • Despite the bad news that the Tampa Bay Lightning will have to go through the Eastern Conference Finals without Steven Stamkos, the team did get some good news, however, on the injury front. The Athletic’s Joe Smith reports that first-line forward Nikita Kucherov is expected to be available Monday for the Lightning’s first game against the New York Islanders. Kucherov was forced to leave Game 5 against the Boston Bruins with an undisclosed injury, but has had almost a week to recover. The 27-year-old has been quite effective in the playoffs so far with four goals and 16 points in 13 games.
  • The Dallas Stars will be without starting goaltender Ben Bishop once again as The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro reports that Bishop and defenseman Taylor Fedun remain “unfit to play.” Both skated today, but neither appear ready to play. The scribe did add that forwards Andrew Cogliano and Mattias Janmark are both expected to be game-time decisions today. Bishop has appeared in just three games during the playoffs and hasn’t made an appearance since Aug. 31 against Colorado when he allowed four goals in 13 minutes before being replaced. The team will rely on Anton Khudobin once again, who is 8-5 with a .909 save percentage in 14 games during the playoffs.
  • Former AHL forward Riley Holzapfel announced his retirement after spending his four years with the Vienna Capitals of the Austrian League. Holzapfel was a second-round pick of the Atlanta Thrashers in 2006 and five season in the AHL before opting to play overseas in 2013, playing three seasons in the SHL before joining Vienna in 2016. He was never able to break into the NHL, however. The 32-year-old was still productive with Vienna, scoring 18 goals and 46 assists in 48 games.

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part I

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:

Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique

– The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and to create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825MM.

Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel

– The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the ‘Yotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8MM. He has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief for the team.

Boston Bruins: John Moore

– Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in both veteran assets and budding prospects as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blue line, he has become an expendable asset, especially if both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman with three years and $8.25MM remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blue liners.

Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo

– Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this year and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6MM annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of their roster.

Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic

– Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25MM cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20+ goals or 50+ points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.

Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner

– For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked out as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, who was signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power play ace that Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL already, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15MM are expendable.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook

– One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875MM AAV on an eight-year, $55MM deal signed back in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson

– Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected long-time member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger, and more affordable blue line options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6MM cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles and the Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg

– Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4MM contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9MM per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.

Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

– The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might just be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this year. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30+ point form in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25MM seems hopeful at best and Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.

Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.

The Anaheim Ducks And The Issue Of “Tagging”

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Anaheim Ducks GM Bob Murray has been a busy man this season, orchestrating four of the past seven trades in the NHL and nine deals overall since the regular season began. Yet, as his team continues to dwell on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff picture, Murray is left to ponder other moves to either improve his roster or sell off what few valuable rental pieces he has. Outside of recent additions Michael Del Zotto and Derek Grant, who are unlikely to be flipped, the Ducks have only three other notable impending unrestricted free agents: forwards Jakob Silfverberg and Brian Gibbons and currently injured goaltender Ryan Miller. Many have speculated that Silfverberg could be the next player shipped out of town, but Murray was quick to state recently that he will continue to work toward an extension with the top-six winger instead.

However, when it comes to either re-signing Silfverberg or adding another piece before the trade deadline, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman cautions that it may be easier said than done due to an obscure salary cap rule. “Tagging” is a rule in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement that limits teams from surpassing the current season’s salary cap in terms of future salaries. The wording of the CBA is as follows:

Until such time as the Club has or makes Payroll Room in the current year in excess of such Tagged Payroll Room, the Club may not engage in any Player transactions requiring Payroll Room, including but not limited to, acquiring an SPC or “extending” or entering into a new SPC.

In layman’s terms, this simply means that teams are not permitted to acquire players with non-expiring contracts or agree to new contracts with current players that would put a future season’s payroll above the existing salary cap. Although the current salary cap ceiling of $79.5MM is almost guaranteed to increase next season, perhaps even substantially, and even though cap hits toll as the season progresses, allowing teams to acquire players they otherwise could not have afforded earlier in the year, they still may not surpass the current cap limit when it comes to the future.

For the Ducks, this rule is especially topical. Anaheim has 16 non-waiver exempt players under contract next season at a total of $70.4MM, the most committed salary of any team in the league. Projecting their 23-man roster payroll for next season easily exceeds $74MM. Even after cutting future salary in the Andrew Cogliano–Drew Shore swap, the Ducks have little room to maneuver while avoiding a “tagging” problem. Without moving out another long-term player, Anaheim would likely struggle to extend Silfverberg in the current league year to a salary exceeding $5-6MM. Given that Silfverberg is currently underpaid at just a $3.75MM AAV, the proven two-way forward is very likely to land in that range. Similarly, the Ducks would be hard-pressed to add a player with term remaining at a cap hit in or above that range. Even if they did find a way to make one of those moves or the other, it would severely limit their roster flexibility the rest of the way this season.

The question thus becomes, if extending Silfverberg in the current season is not a viable option, should the team consider moving him? Even if they have an oral agreement with Silfverberg to sign a new contract this off-season, they cannot truly know that he is committed to staying in Anaheim until pen meets paper. The Ducks could easily fall out of the playoff race following the trade deadline and Silfverberg could decide he would rather test the market. Meanwhile, the team should be able to recoup some nice trade capital if they did decide to trade Silfverberg and could always re-sign him this summer. Even though Murray seems intent on keeping Silfverberg around, the looming shadow of the “tagging” rule makes it a much tougher situation.

Minor Transactions: 01/15/19

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If you like to see the best teams in the NHL face off, you’ve arrived at the right day on the schedule as several matchups this evening will be star-studded. The Vegas Golden Knights and Winnipeg Jets clash in a battle of 60-point Western Conference teams, while the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins hit the road to face the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks respectively. While those teams prepare for war, we’ll be right here keeping track of all the minor moves.

  • With Andrew Cogliano expected to make his Dallas Stars debut tonight, the team has sent Michael Mersch back to the minor leagues. Mersch was only recalled yesterday, likely as insurance should Cogliano have faced any difficulties getting situated with his new club.
  • Joseph Gambardella has been sent to the minor leagues by the Edmonton Oilers in order to make room for the newly acquired Colby Cave. Cave is expected to immediately enter the lineup, while Gambardella will have to return to the Bakersfield Condors for the time being.
  • Meanwhile in Boston, the Bruins have recalled Peter Cehlarik to replace Cave’s roster spot. Cehlarik has 29 points in 37 games for the Providence Bruins and will try to establish himself at the NHL level given the team’s bottom-six needs.
  • Dylan Gambrell is on his way back to the San Jose Sharks after dominating at the minor league level. With 24 points in 27 games, Gambrell is showing exactly why he was selected in the second round and found so much success at the University of Denver.

Anaheim Ducks Trade Andrew Cogliano To Dallas Stars

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The Anaheim Ducks have decided it’s time to shake things up, trading iron man Andrew Cogliano to the Dallas Stars in exchange for Devin Shore. The deal includes no other assets or retained salary.

It’s not surprising that the Ducks’ front office has decided something needed to change, given the 11-game losing streak they are currently experiencing. Anaheim was once safely in the playoff picture in the Western Conference, but have plummeted down out of the race in the Pacific Division and find themselves grasping for anything to keep them afloat. Whether this is the first move in a fire sale or just one to try and spark some offense isn’t clear, but they’ll head into the second half of the season with a new face on the ice.

Not only do the Ducks get younger in this transaction, but they’ll also add some extra depth down the middle with the 24-year old Shore. With 17 points this season he’s on pace for basically the exact same offensive season he’s had the past two years when he recorded 33 and 32 points for the Stars. It’s hard to imagine there is a lot more upside there, but perhaps a fresh start in Anaheim will spark the second-round pick. He hasn’t played center regularly since 2017, but could potentially see time there on an Anaheim team that has struggled to stay healthy down the middle.

In Cogliano, the Stars are receiving a depth option of their own to plug into the middle part of their lineup. The 31-year old has just 11 points on the season but still skates extremely well and can add value on the penalty kill. Dallas GM Jim Nill explained as much in a released statement:

In acquiring Andrew, we are able to add a conscientious player who brings a veteran-presence to our room. His explosive speed, 200-foot game and iron-man mentality will help our team both on and off the ice.

That mentality helped Cogliano reach the fourth-longest games played streak in NHL history earlier in his career when he suited up for 830 consecutive games. A suspension broke that streak, leaving him still without a single game missed due to injury in his 12-year career. There’s no doubt that Cogliano will be able to add some consistency to the Dallas lineup, but there is also no shortage of risk in a deal of this nature.

While Shore is under contract for one season after this one at a cap hit of $2.3MM before becoming a restricted free agent, Cogliano is still working on a deal that extends through 2020-21. That contract was signed almost exactly a year ago, and carries a $3.25MM cap hit. The Stars have plenty of cap room going forward after Jason Spezza’s deal expires at the end of the year, but if Cogliano can’t turn things around and contribute at least a little bit offensively he could represent a quite overpaid asset. His 11 points puts him on pace for the worst season of his entire career.

Overall, this is a swap between two teams looking for answers. Neither has lived up to the lofty expectations many placed on them, and though Shore and Cogliano are not game-changing talents, a fresh start could invigorate both. It will be interesting to see if the Stars get Cogliano up to speed quickly enough for him to appear in tomorrow’s game, and not risk missing just the third contest of his career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Edler, Montreal, Kesler

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The Vancouver Canucks have had an interesting start to the year, with impressive performances from rookie Elias Pettersson but bad losses at the hands of the Calgary Flames and Carolina Hurricanes. The team has allowed 14 goals in three games, and is busy shaking up their blue line to try to find answers. One player that won’t be taken out of the lineup because of his play is Alexander Edler, but there might be a break-up coming down the line anyway. Edler is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, but has made it clear he wants to spend the rest of his career in Vancouver.

Still, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet points out in his latest 31 Thoughts column, Edler would be an attractive rental piece at the trade deadline for a contender. The 32-year old defenseman is averaging more than 25 minutes of ice time through the first three games and is coming off his most effective offensive season in some time. Friedman notes that the Tampa Bay Lightning has shown interest in the left-hander before, and that “someone” will again even if he’s determined to return to the Canucks in 2019-20.

  • The Montreal Canadiens will face a tough decision in the coming days, as Eric Engels of Sportsnet writes that the team will likely put either Jacob de La Rose or Nikita Scherbak on waivers once the former is back to full health. Both high draft selections, neither player has really found much consistency in the NHL and even their youth can’t get them into the current lineup. Engels believes that both would be prime targets for a waiver claim, given that they still hold some substantial potential. There are obviously other ways out of the roster crunch, but if it does come down to a waiver placement and attempted minor league assignment, the Canadiens could find themselves losing some of their forward depth for nothing in the coming days.
  • Ryan Kesler was on the ice at the Anaheim Ducks morning skate, and even took line rushes between Andrew Cogliano and Kiefer Sherwood according to Josh Cooper of The Athletic. The veteran forward was not expected to return so soon, and head coach Randy Carlyle wouldn’t even confirm that he’ll be in the lineup tonight against the Arizona Coyotes. If he is back to health it’s at the perfect time as the Ducks are without Ryan Getzlaf and are struggling to find much offense up front. An expected Stanley Cup contender, the Ducks have been ravaged by injuries early and could use some good news on that front.

Snapshots: Three Stars, Lundestrom, Luukkonen

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The NHL has handed out the Three Stars of the Week for the first time this season, naming Auston Matthews as the top performer through the first few games. Matthews leads the NHL with eight points through three games including five goals, and has been a huge part of the Toronto Maple Leafs getting off to a 2-1 start. The Maple Leafs have looked shaky in their own end to start the year, but with the firepower that Matthews and John Tavares can provide up front it might not matter on most nights.

Jonathan Toews and Ben Bishop were named to the other two spots, noting a bounce back for both players this season. Toews especially had a down year as the Chicago Blackhawks disappointed in 2017-18, but is off to a blistering start with five goals in his first seven periods and six points total through three games. If the Blackhawks are to return to relevancy this year, they’ll need their captain to be among the best players in the league once again.

  • Speaking of captains not living up to expectations, the Anaheim Ducks were without Ryan Getzlaf today at practice while he deals with a lower-body injury. That meant first-round pick Isac Lundestrom was skating between Andrew Cogliano and Kiefer Sherwood according to Eric Stephens of The Athletic, giving the young forward a chance to make his NHL debut later tonight. Lundestrom has been surprisingly polished through training camp, and even at the age of 18 looks like a possible contributor for the Ducks this season. The 23rd-overall pick scored 15 points in 42 games in the Swedish Hockey League last season, and will try to make an even bigger impact in the NHL.
  • The Ducks aren’t the only one with an impressive young prospect though, as Buffalo Sabres draft pick Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has won the OHL Player of the Week award. Luukkonen is playing for the Sudbury Wolves this season as he prepares for life as a professional in North America, and is already 5-0 with a .944 save percentage. Selected 54th overall in 2017, Luukkonen signed his entry-level contract this offseason and is quickly becoming one of the top goaltending prospects in the league. He’ll likely start out next season in the AHL, but the Sabres are hoping for big things from him down the line.

Andrew Cogliano Suspended Two Games

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Andrew Cogliano’s streak of 830 consecutive games will come to an end, as the NHL’s Department of Player Safety has issued a two-game suspension for the Anaheim Ducks’ forward. Cogliano came together with the Los Angeles Kings’ forward Adrian Kempe after he’d already passed the puck, making contact with his head. The accompanying video explains:

In addition to the lateness of the hit, what elevates this check to merit supplemental discipline is the substantial head contact and significant force. This is a late, high, forceful check on a player who is not eligible to be checked in any manner.

Cogliano has never been fined or suspended in a career that spans more than a decade. That career has also not been marred by a single injury or healthy scratch, as the 30-year old hasn’t missed a single game since he entered the league. That streak of 830 games ranks fourth all-time in NHL history, but will come to an end midway through his 11th season. Keith Yandle will now become the active consecutive games played leader with 676.

While the streak ending is disappointing for the sake of history, losing Cogliano for a pair of games will have a big impact on the Ducks. As shown by his recent three-year extension, the team knows the important role that he plays for their team as a player who can be relied on defensively and on the penalty kill. With the Ducks trying their best to crawl back into a playoff spot, they claimed J.T. Brown off waivers earlier today, perhaps expecting a suspension coming down from the league. They take on the Colorado Avalanche tomorrow afternoon, in a game between two Western Conference teams tied in the standings with 49 points.

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