The Lightning have taken our No. 1-ranked UFA off the board. After acquiring his signing rights from the Hurricanes yesterday, they’ve locked in left winger Jake Guentzel on a seven-year, $63MM deal ($9MM cap hit), per a team announcement.
Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic has the full breakdown of the deal:
2024-25: $1MM base salary, $12.26MM signing bonus, no-move clause
2025-26: $1MM base salary, $8.95MM signing bonus, NMC
2026-27: $3.96MM base salary, $4MM signing bonus, NMC
2027-28: $1MM base salary, $6.96MM signing bonus, NMC
2028-29: $1MM base salary, $6.96MM signing bonus, 10-team trade list
2029-30: $1MM base salary, $6.96MM signing bonus, 10-team trade list
2030-31: $1MM base salary, $6.96MM signing bonus, 10-team trade list
While many had questioned Guentzel’s value after spending nearly all of his eight-year NHL career stapled to Sidney Crosby’s wing in Pittsburgh, a trade deadline deal to Carolina proved beyond a reasonable doubt that he’s a top-flight first-line talent in his own right. The 29-year-old has averaged more than a point per game over the last six seasons, totaling 189 goals, 221 assists and 410 points in 398 games since his breakout 40-goal campaign with the Penguins in 2018-19.
Carolina acquired Guentzel at the trade deadline, hoping to get him signed to an extension as he hurtled toward free agency, but it wasn’t in the cards. Guentzel’s initial ask was a reported eight-year, $64MM deal ($8MM AAV), something the Hurricanes weren’t willing to meet until too late in the process, LeBrun said last week. He was excellent down the stretch while alternating between Carolina’s top two forward lines, ending the year with eight goals and 17 assists for 25 points in 17 games with a +16 rating. Playing mostly alongside Sebastian Aho in the playoffs, Guentzel continued his reputation as a strong playoff performer with four goals and five assists in 11 contests.
A third-round pick of the Penguins in 2013, Guentzel played a key role in the second of the Penguins’ back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2017. He led the league in playoff goal-scoring as a rookie, lighting the lamp 13 times in 25 games – five of which were game-winners.
It’s clear that Lightning GM Julien BriseBois is banking on Guentzel being a more expensive yet more sustainable long-term replacement for Steven Stamkos. Their longtime captain is expected to find a new home on the open market today after failing to come to terms on an extension.
In Tampa, Guentzel could form one of the most terrifying top lines in the league alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Kucherov is coming off a 100-assist, 144-point campaign that won him the second Art Ross Trophy of his career, while Point has hovered around the 50-goal mark for the past two seasons.
The Lightning have $7.5MM in projected cap space remaining for 2024-25 after the Guentzel signing, per CapFriendly. They still have six open roster spots, including newly acquired RFA defenseman J.J. Moser.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.