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Evan Rodrigues

2019 Arbitration Figures And Results

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August 6th: All arbitration cases have now been completed. In total, six cases were decided by an arbitrator’s award this year. That number, though seemingly not many, actually presents a 50% increase over last summer and more than the past two off-seasons combined. Of those six decisions, the teams and players received the favorable decision an even three times apiece, and each award landed within $150K of the midpoint. All things considered, there were few surprises in arbitration, even though there were more awards than expected. Now the question is where the relationships between those teams and players go from here.

Originally published on July 19th: Friday marked the start of the arbitration season in the NHL, with Brock McGinn first scheduled for his hearing with the Carolina Hurricanes. The appointments will come fast and furious after that, with 23 cases left on the books. When we asked our readers how many would actually get to the hearing stage more than 36% of voters thought 3-4 was reasonable, the same number that reached last year.

We know now that at least one will, as Andrew Copp’s agent Kurt Overhardt told Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press that their camp will “look forward to” the hearing scheduled for Sunday. Copp and the Jets exchanged figures earlier today. It is important to remember that the two sides can actually work out a deal in the short period after the hearing and before the actual decision is submitted by the arbitrator. For every case except Ville Husso, who the St. Louis Blues took to arbitration, the team involved will be allowed to choose the duration of the contract awarded. They can choose either one or two years, unless the player is only one year away from unrestricted free agency, at which point only a one-year deal is available.

Here we’ll keep track of all the hearings still on the books and the figures submitted. This page will be updated as the numbers come in:

July 20:

Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $1.75MM AAV, Player: $2.7MM AAV
Settled: Two years, $2.1MM AAV

July 21:

Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets – Team: $1.5MM AAV, Player: $2.9MM AAV
Awarded: Two years, $2.28MM AAV

July 22: 

MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers
Settled: One year, $1.6MM AAV

Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins
Settled: Two years, $1.0MM AAV

Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues (team-elected)
Settled: One year, two-way, $700K AAV

Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals – Team: $800K, Player: $1.9MM
Awarded: One year, $1.25MM AAV

July 23: 

Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $1.5MM, Player: $2.65MM
Awarded: One year, $2.0MM AAV

July 24: 

Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues
Settled: Four years, $2.75MM AAV

Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
Settled: Two years, $3.0MM AAV

July 26: 

Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
Settled: Seven years, $2.86MM AAV

July 27: 

Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.55MM AAV

July 28: 

Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
Settled: One year, $1.4MM AAV

July 29: 

David Rittich, Calgary Flames
Settled: Two years, $2.75MM AAV

Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
Settled: Two years, $3.25MM AAV

August 1: 

Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres
Settled: One year, two-way $700K AAV

Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
Settled: One year, $1.05MM

August 2: 

Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres – Team: $800K, Player: $2.65MM
Settled: One year, $1.33MM

Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
Settled: Three years, $3.73MM AAV

August 4: 

Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres – Team: 1.95MM, Player: $4.3MM
Settled: Two years, $2.85MM AAV

Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes – Team: $700K/$70K, Player: $833K
Awarded: One year, $775K AAV

Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche
Settled: One year, two-way $735K AAV

Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators – Team: $700K/$70K, Player $1.275MM
Awarded: One year, $1MM

Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues – Team: $2.3MM, Player $4.2MM
Awarded: One year, $3.1MM

Arbitration Breakdown: Linus Ullmark

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

The Buffalo Sabres are 50/50 on settling arbitration cases so far this summer, coming to an agreement with Remi Elie prior to a hearing, but going through the process with Evan Rodrigues. They remarkably have two cases left with just two hearing dates remaining. The first, scheduled for Friday, is with 26-year-old homegrown goaltender Linus Ullmark. Ullmark’s performance as well as his role with the team has been up and down over his career and there is no consensus as to whether he is still growing into a future starter or has settled into a backup position. That much was evident when the two sides exchanged filing numbers, as the two figures were drastically far apart. The Sabres prevailed against Rodrigues in a case that seemingly favored the player; will they do so again? Here is a closer look at the case:

The Case of Linus Ullmark

Career Statistics: 63 games played, 24 wins, .910 save percentage, 2.87 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 37 games played, 15 wins, .905 save percentage, 3.11 goals against average

Filing Numbers: Ullmark – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $800K (midpoint: $1.725MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Starting-Caliber Goaltender: strong 2017-18 numbers in NHL and AHL; comparable numbers to starter Carter Hutton in platform season; higher quality start percentage than Hutton in platform season
  • Lacking Opportunity: strong numbers in 20 appearances as a rookie in 2015-16, made only six appearances over the next two seasons; Sabres were ninth-worst in shots allowed in platform season, lacked opportunity to play behind competent defense

Team Side

Themes:

  • Backup-Caliber Goaltender: inferior statistics to starter Hutton in platform season; SV% and GAA ranked in bottom ten among 48 goalies with at least 30 appearances in platform season; unable to earn more appearances in prior seasons
  • Unreliable Goaltender: cannot handle regular NHL workload, numbers in five appearances in 2017-18 far superior to numbers as primary backup in 2018-19; allowed four or more goals in 15 appearances, including seven of final twelve appearances and five times in back-to-back appearances

Potential Comparable Player:

David Rittich (2019)
Career Statistics: 67 games played, 35 wins, .909 save percentage, 2.70 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 45 games played, 27 wins, .911 save percentage, 2.61 goals against average
Salary: $2.75MM

  • Player’s argument: Similar career numbers; similar age, size, developmental path
  • Team’s counter: Rittich had substantially better numbers in the platform season; has shown steady improvement at NHL level, eventually winning starting role; Rittich has better quality start percentage, more reliable and consistent performances

Prediction

There are not many great cases for arbitration-eligible goaltenders with Ullmark’s level of NHL experience. That serves to benefit him though, as one such player is a case settled last week in Rittich. Although Rittich’s new $2.75MM salary is more than Ullmark’s side filed for, they can acknowledge Rittich’s superior play in the platform season and still argue that the career numbers are similar enough to warrant their  $2.65MM ask. As for the Sabres, they can easily argue that Rittich is on a much better trajectory than Ullmark, but the player side may admit to that themselves. They’ll have to really hammer home the contrast between the two goalies if they are to use Rittich’s case to their advantage. Otherwise, Buffalo will have to dig deep to find a different case that both fits the criteria for a case that can be used in a hearing and also makes sense as a comparable player, so they can add additional points to their argument. It’s going to be tough, though. The Sabres pulled out a surprise against Rodrigues, but don’t expect them to do it again. Anticipate a potential award to land somewhere in the $2.1-2.3MM range.

Arbitration Notes: Departures, Capitals, Sabres

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It’s no secret that salary arbitration is not a friendly process. If a player does make it all the way through the hearing, that means that they’ve sat through a presentation by their own team about just how bad they are compared to other similar players. While teams and players often use the threat of the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision to move contract talks along, the potential unpleasantness of a hearing is also plenty of motivation to come to terms. Case in point: Colorado’s Sheldon Dries, who today settled on a one-year, two-way contract worth $735K. Dries’ contract comes in just $35K above the absolute worst possible outcome in an arbitration hearing, yet he opted not to argue his case in hopes of a better outcome. Why? Likely to avoid the breakdown in a relationship between he and the Avalanche if the hearing got ugly. It’s more common than it may seem – The Athletic’s Craig Custance crunched the numbers and found that the vast majority of players who go through an arbitration hearing end up leaving that team, one way or another.

Over the past ten years, 27 players have gone into a hearing. Not all of those players required an arbitrator’s award, but any resulting settlements still came after the unfortunate back-and-forth. Of those 27 players, Custance found that 14 were on new teams within a year and 21 were on new teams within three years. All of last summer’s cases – Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, Calgary’s Brett Kulak, and Dallas’ Gemel Smith – are on new teams now. In fact, of the 27 players who have reached a hearing since 2009, no player before 2015 remains on the team that the faced off with and only four players since still remain on good terms with their club: Nashville’s Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Vegas’ Nate Schmidt. This all goes to show that arbitration can be a dangerous method of negotiating for teams, even if the goal is to settle before an arbitrator’s decision. The numbers convincingly imply that an arbitration hearing is the death knell for a player’s relationship with his team. As far as this off-season goes, this analysis doesn’t bode well for Andrew Copp and the Jets, Christian Djoos and the Capitals, and Evan Rodrigues and the Sabres, all of whom not only went to hearings already this summer, but whose awards all favored the team more so than the player. With ten potential cases still to go, there could be even more players who one day look back at this off-season as the beginning of the end.

  • The Capitals may very well end up back in front of an arbitrator before long, with a case against forward Chandler Stephenson scheduled for August 1st. Although the decision in the Djoos case – a $1.25MM award against a $1.35MM midpoint – favored the team, it still puts them in a difficult situation regarding the salary cap and eliminates some hope that a resolution with Stephenson could come prior to a hearing. Washington is currently more than $300K over the salary cap ceiling after signing Djoos. While young defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler can be returned to the AHL without the threat of waivers for a $714K drop to get under the cap, it would leave the Capitals with just six defensemen. All of Washington’s 14 NHL forwards, including Stephenson, would be subject to waivers, although the team would likely want to carry that many forwards anyway. It’s a difficult conundrum not made any easier by the unknown of Stephenson’s contract either. The 25-year-old forward recorded 18 points in 67 games in 2017-18 and another 11 points in 62 games this past season. He will likely seek a salary of $1MM or more, a number that Washington simply cannot palate. Asked who the team would choose if faced with a choice between trading away Djoos or Stephenson to open up cap space and roster flexibility, NBC Sports’ J.J. Regan did not hesitate to say that Stephenson would be the one dealt. Defense is in short supply for the Capitals and Djoos is a proven starter. Stephenson on the other hand would be an expendable piece in a deep forward corps. It may not matter though, as moving Stephenson alone is unlikely to be a sufficient answer to Washington’s cap troubles.
  • If you think the Capitals having two cases is bad, wait until you hear about the Sabres. Like Washington, Buffalo has already been through one hearing this summer with forward Evan Rodrigues, landing a $2MM award against a $2.075MM midpoint. It was somewhat of a surprising decision and may have given GM Jason Botterill and company some confidence moving forward. That could wind up being a problem for all parties involved, as three of the remaining ten scheduled cases are also Sabres players: forward Remi Elie, goalie Linus Ullmark, and defenseman Jake McCabe. If Buffalo goes to hearing with even one more of these players, never mind all three, it could be a bad look for the organization and could cause a breakdown in numerous player relationships. However, if the team continues to win their arbitration battles, it would be a major help this season, as the team has just over $3MM in cap space left to sign the trio. It’s a long-term risk for a short-term gain for the Sabres.

Evan Rodrigues Receives Arbitration Award

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Another player has received an arbitration award, as Evan Rodrigues signs a one-year, $2MM contract with the Buffalo Sabres. Rodrigues had filed for a $2.65MM salary while the Sabres filed for just $1.5MM. The Sabres still have hearings scheduled with Remi Elie and Linus Ullmark for early next month.

Rodrigues, 25, is coming off his first full season in the NHL and recorded 29 points last season in 74 games. A former teammate of Jack Eichel at Boston University, Rodrigues was an undrafted free agent when he decided to sign with the Sabres in 2015. After showing he could hang at the NHL level in the 2017-18 season, he has now established himself as a full-time roster option for them moving forward.

No, the 5’10” center is not going to be mistaken for a star offensive player anytime soon, but giving the Sabres strong minutes down the middle is still valuable. Rodrigues has been moved around the lineup through his young career and also contributed last season on the powerplay and penalty kill, giving him a huge amount of versatility as they try to build the roster up. With new additions like Marcus Johansson and Jimmy Vesey figuring into the top-six it’s unlikely that Rodrigues will find a ton of minutes in that group, but he may have the most upside in that next group including players like Johan Larsson and Zemgus Girgensons.

The real test for Buffalo this season will be trying to get enough production out of that bottom-six to really compete, something that is far from decided at this point. The team obviously has some elite talent at the top of the lineup with Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Jeff Skinner, but will need more competitiveness on a nightly basis from the rest. New head coach Ralph Krueger is certainly known for his ability to motivate players, something that the Sabres will hopefully experience this year as they try to compete for a playoff spot in the difficult Atlantic Division.

Arbitration Breakdown: Evan Rodrigues

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Already, two players have gone to hearing and are awaiting an arbitrator’s decision: the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp and the Washington Capitals’ Christian Djoos. The next possibility is Buffalo Sabres forward Evan Rodrigues, whose hearing is scheduled for Tuesday morning. Rodrigues really only has a season and half of experience as a regular player, but after an outstanding second half on 2017-18, he has established himself as a bona fide NHL talent and has plenty of ammunition ready for an arbitration battle. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Evan Rodrigues

Career Statistics: 154 games played, 21 goals, 41 assists, 62 points, -22 rating
Platform Statistics: 74 games played, 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points, -7 rating

Filing Numbers: Rodrigues – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.075MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Top-Six Forward: among top six Sabres forwards in points and assists per game and points and assists total in platform season; fourth among Sabres forwards in ATOI in platform season; fourth in total shots and shots per game in platform season (victim of abnormally low shooting percentage)
  • Dependable Player: regular role on power play and penalty kill in platform season; third in face-offs taken in platform season; 59% defensive zone starts in platform season

Potential Comparable Players:

Melker Karlsson (2017)
Career Statistics: 185 games played, 34 goals, 31 assists, 65 points, +9 rating
Platform Statistics: 67 games played, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points, +7 rating
Salary: $2MM

  • Player’s argument: Rodrigues has better career points per game; Rodrigues has better points per game in platform season; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
  • Team’s counter: Karlsson is better career goal scorer; Karlsson did not have same opportunity in platform season – ATOI, power play ATOI, line mate talent; Karlsson is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI

Alex Iafallo (2019)
Career Statistics: 157 games played, 24 goals, 34 assists, 58 points, -7 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points, -17 rating
Salary: $2.425MM

  • Player’s argument: very similar offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season and career (over very similar NHL experience); Rodrigues with slightly better career points per game in less ATOI career; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
  • Team’s counter: Iafallo has two full seasons of NHL experience and top-six minutes; Iafallo has better goal scoring numbers in platform season and career; Iafallo is more physical player

Team Side

Themes:

  • Not a Top-Six Forward: offensive numbers do not match up with top-six production league wide – role is product of thin Sabres roster last season; outside top six Sabres forwards in goal scoring, power plat ATOI
  • Limited Upside: regression in platform season – .52 points per game to .39 points per game; not a goal scorer – low career goal totals, shooting percentage; poor face-off numbers; limited experience at advanced age

Potential Comparable Players:

Bryan Rust (2018)
Career Statistics: 181 games, 33 goals, 46 assists, 79 points, +13 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points, +11 rating
Salary: $3.5MM

  • Team’s argument: Rust has better career offensive totals an per game numbers; Rust has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Rust is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI; Rust has considerable postseason experience, production, and achievement
  • Player’s counter: Rust’s AAV is considerably higher than midpoint; Rodrigues’ career-high games played is higher than Rust’s – more dependable player; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium

J.T. Compher (2019)
Career Statistics:  156 games played, 32 goals, 28 assists, 60 points, -37 rating
Platform Statistics: 66 games played, 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points, -7 rating
Salary: $3.5MM

  • Team’s argument: Compher had far better per game offensive numbers in platform season; Compher has better career goal-scoring numbers; Compher is better defensive player – hits, blocked shots, face-off success, shorthanded ATOI; Compher is considerably younger
  • Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, Rodrigues has a pretty good chance in this case. Although Rodrigues’ numbers may very well be a product of a top-six role that he will no longer have moving forward, the Sabres can’t show that in a hearing and thus must deal with the fact that they needed him in that capacity over the last season and a half. There is a strong argument to be made that each of these comparable players is better than Rodrigues, but the fact that their cap numbers are at or above the midpoint, Rust and Compher substantially so, is a major benefit to the player side. Even if Buffalo can hammer home the point that Rust and Compher are much better players with far superior platform seasons, they will likely struggle to drive the price too far past Iafallo’s $2.425MM. He and Rodrigues are incredibly similar. Unless the Sabres get really creative with other comparable players, expect a potential decision to land in that range, between $2.3-2.5MM.

Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres Exchange Arbitration Figures

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In a strange twist, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the Buffalo Sabres and RFA forward Evan Rodrigues have exchanged arbitration figures ahead of their scheduled Tuesday hearing. The timeline is actually appropriate for both sides, but oddly the information comes out while the three cases scheduled for Monday – Florida’s MacKenzie Weegar, Pittsburgh’s Zach Aston-Reese, and Washington’s Christian Djoos – have yet to have their filing numbers leaked. Regardless, the numbers are in for Buffalo and Rodrigues. The player side has filed at $2.65MM and the team side has filed at $1.5MM. The resulting midpoint for the case is $2.075MM.  It is important to remember that not only can the two sides still negotiate a different deal in the time remaining (and even for a short period after the hearing), the arbitration decision also does not need to be one figure or the other. The award can (and usually does) fall somewhere in the middle of the submitted salaries.

Rodrigues, who turns 26 next week, has been a project player for the Sabres that has panned out over the past two seasons. A highly productive college player at Boston University, who put up a whopping 61 points in 41 games skating alongside Jack Eichel in his senior year, Rodrigues was a no-brainer as an undrafted free agent signing for Buffalo in 2015. However, he played in only two NHL games as a first-year pro and was very quiet through 30 NHL games in year two. In total, he notched only eight points in his first 32 NHL games. That all changed in 2017-18, when Rodrigues took advantage of a mid-season call-up to record 25 points in 48 games to finish among the Sabres’ top six forwards in per game production. Handed a regular role this season, Rodrigues continued to impress with a career-high nine goals and 29 points in 74 games.

The debate moving forward – which is difficult in arbitration, where projections are not allowed – is what Rodrigues’ ceiling will be. Although his total points increased in 2018-19, it was a modest gain considering he played in 26 more games. However, Rodrigues’ side can point to an unusually low 5.4% shooting percentage, though the argument may not carry much weight. Instead, the real benefit to the player side is that Rodrigues proved he can be a regular contributor. The slick center skated in almost 16 minutes per night, fourth-most among Buffalo forwards, was third in face-offs taken (although he was not very successful), and again finished among the top six scoring forwards.

It’s hard to argue that Rodrigues is not a useful forward, but the Sabres can make a strong argument that his usage was a function of a thin roster up front and his production given his minutes and role are not exactly stunning. He failed to show that his 2017-18 breakout was a level of output that he was capable of continuing. Instead, Rodrigues is likely a bottom-six forward for most NHL teams rather than the top-six forward he has been for Buffalo over the past season and a half. The team will try to make the case that he should be paid as such. Given their additions of Marcus Johansson and Jimmy Vesey this summer, the Sabres may very well have plans to move Rodrigues further down in the lineup, but again that is not an argument they can make at hearing. It’s a curious case that could make for a fascinating back-and-forth in front of the arbitrator.

Poll: How Many Unresolved Arbitration Cases Will Require An Award?

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In the NHL, the salary arbitration process is more often used as a negotiating tool – an incentive to get a deal done before the uncomfortable setting of a hearing and the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision – than it is for its actual purpose. A vast majority of players who file for arbitration end up settling before their hearing or even at the last moment before an award is handed down. Last year, 44 players filed for arbitration and 40 settled prior to their hearing. The year before, all 30 cases were resolved before an arbitration award could be made.

So what about this year? There were initially 40 cases of player-elected arbitration and one case of team-elected arbitration (the St. Louis Blues and goalie Ville Husso), but that number is now down to 25 open cases. That’s a substantial drop-off, but time is running out for some RFA’s and their teams to come to terms, as the first scheduled hearing is set to take place on Saturday, July 20th. Listed below are all of the remaining cases:

July 20: Brock McGinn, Carolina Hurricanes
July 21: Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets
July 22: MacKenzie Weegar, Florida Panthers; Zach Aston-Reese, Pittsburgh Penguins; Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues; Christian Djoos, Washington Capitals
July 23: Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres
July 24: Oskar Sundqvist, St. Louis Blues; Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
July 25: Jacob Trouba, New York Rangers
July 26: Colton Sissons, Nashville Predators
July 27: Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames
July 28: Mirco Mueller, New Jersey Devils
July 29: David Rittich, Calgary Flames; Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers
August 1: Remi Elie, Buffalo Sabres; Chandler Stephenson, Washington Capitals
August 2: Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres; Charles Hudon, Montreal Canadiens; Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils
August 4: Jake McCabe, Buffalo Sabres; Anton Forsberg, Carolina Hurricanes; Sheldon Dries, Colorado Avalanche; Rocco Grimaldi, Nashville Predators; Joel Edmundson, St. Louis Blues

Given the time constraints and the complexity of each of these cases, how many will feel forced to go to hearing? Will Trouba be one of that select group, as he was last year? Will the Sabres struggle to settle four cases before their scheduled hearing dates? Will the Blues see through their team-elected case with Husso? Will other goalies prove to be difficult negotiations? And will polarizing players like Bennett and Buchnevich fail to find common ground with their teams? Or will it be under-the-radar players like Gemel Smith and Brett Kulak last year who go through the full process?

There are many questions left about this group of restricted free agents and time is running out before we know the answers. So the choice is yours: will we see an unprecedented class of arbitration awards or will all or most cases reach a resolution in the coming weeks?

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Free Agent Focus: Buffalo Sabres

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Free agency is now just a few days away and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. The Buffalo Sabres, now that they have inked Jeff Skinner to an eight-year, $72MM deal earlier this month, don’t have as much to worry about as the team has neither many important restricted or unrestricted free agents they need to worry about.

Key Restricted Free Agent: G Linus Ullmark – The Sabres may not have gotten the season they were hoping for from free agent goaltender Carter Hutton, but they also had high hopes for Ullmark to take the next step and establish himself as a solid backup to the veteran. However, whether that will be the case is another question. While Ullmark looked early on in the season like the answer as the team’s backup, his play started to slip as the year wore on and he struggled especially late in the season, eventually finishing with a 3.11 GAA and a .905 save percentage. However, with no other young goalie particularly close to being ready to challenge him, it’s likely the Sabres will give Ullmark another year to develop his body for the long-haul for the season.

F Zemgus Girgensons – While hardly an impact player, the Sabres have been using the 25-year-old as a bottom-line depth option for six years already as he provides the team with some size and grit that the team needs at the bottom of their line-up. While he hasn’t broken the 10-goal mark since the 2014-15 season (he scored five last year), he did finish with 144 hits last season, his highest numbers since his rookie season. The question is whether the team sees him as a long-term option as he is one year away from becoming a unrestricted free-agent.

F Evan Rodrigues – The team has like what it has seen from Rodrigues, who signed with Buffalo after four years at Boston University and has since worked his way through the AHL and finally saw a full season in Buffalo this year. While his numbers were quite pedestrian as he finished the year with nine goals and 29 points, he has seen increased playing time and the team hopes he can still provide some middle-six depth for the team, although he should receive a slight raise from the $650K that he made last season.

Other RFAs: F Remi Elie, F Johan Larsson, D Jake McCabe, F C.J. Smith

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Jason Pominville – He has played 11 seasons for Buffalo over the course of his career and despite hitting 36 years of age, the team may consider bringing back the veteran as an inexpensive depth option. After all, he posted 16 goals last season, while playing a career-low 12:28 last season. While he certainly wasn’t worth the $5.6MM he was making last season, he would be worth a low-cost deal, who could provide the team’s youth with a veteran presence.

Other UFAs: F Eric Cornel, F Kyle Criscuolo, D Jack Dougherty, F Taylor Leier, F Sean Malone, D Brycen Martin, F Matt Moulson, F Daniel O’Regan; D Matt Tennyson, G Scott Wedgewood, G Adam Wilcox

Projected Cap Space: The Sabres currently sit a little more than $15MM under the cap ceiling, according to CapFriendly, and should have some cap room to try to find some offense to help out their struggling second line. With the recent addition of defenseman Colin Miller from Vegas, the team should be in good shape with their defense, but the team’s biggest problem was putting the puck in the net, which the team hopes that it can improve on with the right roster moves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

East Notes: Gordon, Chabot, Sabres

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Flyers head coach Scott Gordon told reporters, including Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News and Inquirer that he has yet to hear anything about whether or not the team is interested in removing the interim tag for next season and beyond.  While Philadelphia is likely to come up short of making the postseason, they have performed quite well since relieving Dave Hakstol of his duties, compiling a 25-17-4 record under Gordon’s tutelage.  While there are some notable veteran bench bosses that will likely be looking to get back behind a bench this summer, how the 56-year-old has fared with the Flyers could help generate some interest from other teams if GM Chuck Fletcher opts to go in a different direction.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot is still dealing with multiple injuries, notes Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch. He still hasn’t fully recovered from the shoulder issue he had three months ago while his broken toe still isn’t back to 100% either.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ottawa decided to give him a rest down the stretch or at least try to scale back his ice time.  It’s expected that he will get an invite for the upcoming World Championships but Chabot indicated that he’ll need to be fully recovered before agreeing to go.
  • The Sabres could have center Evan Rodrigues and defenseman Jake McCabe back in the lineup on Saturday, notes Bill Hoppe of the Olean Times Herald (Twitter link). McCabe was effectively ruled out for the season earlier this month when it was announced that he’d miss five-to-six weeks with an upper-body injury but he’s clearly ahead of schedule as it has barely been three weeks since then.  As for Rodrigues, he missed Thursday’s game with an upper-body issue of his own.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Buffalo Sabres

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season heads past the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. Let’s take a look at what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Buffalo Sabres. 

What are the Sabres most thankful for?

Can Sabres’ fans be any more thankful for the fact that the team, the same team that finished last in the standings one season ago, is currently in first place in the entire NHL with 34 points. That may be short lived as several teams just beneath them play before the Sabres go for their 10th straight win on Tuesday, but few could have predicted the success for second-year general manager Jason Botterill and head coach Phil Housley this season.

The Sabres shook up their entire roster from a year ago and made critical additions at every level, which included adding Jeff Skinner to their top line on offense, adding a number of solid players to their depth chart including Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, Casey Mittelstadt, Conor Sheary and Tage Thompson, while adding 2018 first-overall pick Rasmus Dahlin (who has been as good as advertised) on defense. That doesn’t include the team’s success in goal. Those moves have stabilized the team’s defense as they ranked sixth in the league in goals against this year as well as having one of the best penalty killing units in the league as well.

Who are the Sabres most thankful for?

While it would make sense to put Skinner and his 18 goals in this spot, we can save him for later. The tandem that has really impressed this year has been the play of the Sabres goaltenders Carter Hutton and Linus Ullmark. The team, which struggled a year ago with Robin Lehner and Chad Johnson has thrived this year. Much of that could be the improvement of the team’s defense, but at the same time both goalies have been better than anyone had expected.

While Hutton was the top goaltender on the market this offseason, most people felt that Hutton was not capable of being a No. 1 goaltender, often comparing him to Carolina’s Scott Darling. However, Hutton has been better than advertised, already netting 11 wins and posting a solid 2.53 GAA and a .919 save percentage in 18 appearances. The untested Ullmark also has looked good, although the team has been careful to not overwhelm the 25-year-old. However in five appearances, he’s also posted a 2.52 GAA and an even more impressive .926 save percentage.

What would the Sabres be even more thankful for?

More production from their youth. The team is very young and is loaded with talent at the AHL level as well. And while players like Dahlin have been impressive, the team could take another step in the right direction if they can develop some of their young core even quicker. Dahlin has played well sharing No. 1 defenseman duties with Rasmus Ristolainen, but he’s capable of even more. The team has gotten just four goals from Mittelstadt and would like to see him develop into a consistent presence in the top six at some point.

Others like Thompson, who has suddenly starting showing off some offense with three goals in his last four games, as well as Evan Rodrigues need to continue to develop as well to allow the team to reach peak efficiency both now and in the future. The team is also loaded with a number of prospects including defensemen Lawrence Pilut and Brendan Guhle, while they have several potential options at forward as well in C.J. Smith, Daniel O’Regan and Alexander Nylander waiting for an opportunity.

What should be on the Sabres’ Holiday Wish List?

The team has made it clear they intend to work on an extension with Skinner next month, but the team really needs to make sure it can lock down the 26-year-old who leads the team in scoring this year and is only six goals away from beating his 24 goals from last season with Carolina. Skinner’s deal will be the main contract the team must deal with this offseason as the team has just three unrestricted free agents (Jason Pominville and Matt Moulson being the others). Skinner’s pairing with Jack Eichel has produced a powerful top line in the NHL and should only get better as the two continue to get comfortable with each other.

With the expiring contracts of Moulson and Pominville, although the team may want to attempt to retain the latter, there should be plenty of money to lock up Skinner now, so they won’t have to worry about him losing him this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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