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The Best Fits For Matt Duchene

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Despite the tumultuous off-season for Matt Duchene and the Colorado Avalanche, GM Joe Sakic fully expects him to show up to training camp. At least, that’s what he told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. “He’s under contract and I expect him to be here” Sakic said, “Not everybody always comes to camp early. It’s not for me to (say), but I assume on the 14th, he’ll be here.” Sakic is referring to Duchene being one of only two Avs players under contract not to participate in captain’s practice last week. Holdouts may be rare in the NHL, but Duchene’s words and actions this summer have painted a pretty clear picture of a player who would like to leave Colorado.

If Duchene has reached his wit’s end with the trade rumors that have persisted since late 2016 and truly has no intention of suiting up for the Avalanche again, Sakic has just a few days left to trade him before this begins to enter holdout territory. The perceived problem all along is that Sakic has not dropped the asking price that has long been considered a young top-four defenseman, a first round pick, and one or two more young roster players or prospects. Not only do few (read: any) NHL teams have a young top-four blue liner to spare, but it’s hard to imagine anyone giving up such a package for Duchene, who has just two seasons remaining on his contract and is coming off a down 2016-17 season. Duchene had scored 55 or more points in five of his seven NHL seasons entering last year – and easily would have made it six had the the 2012-13 lockout-shorten seasoned been extended – yet, he ended up with only 41 points and an egregious -34 rating last season; a low point for both he and the Avalanche franchise.

Logic would seem to indicate that, holdout or not, Sakic has to continue listening to offers for Duchene and needs to lower an unreasonable asking price. TSN recently released their list  of the top nine NHL trade candidates this season, with Duchene obviously at the top. They list the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, and Pittsburgh Penguins as the mostly likely destinations for Duchene. The Carolina Hurricanes and San Jose Sharks have also been in the rumor mix this summer.

Right away, a few of those options can have their odds discounted. Having just traded away Travis Hamonic and traded for Jordan Eberle, the New York Islanders and their estimated $3MM in cap space likely lack the capacity and the desire to pony up for Duchene at this point. The Isles are still deep on defense, but with Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg approaching free agency next year, trading yet another young defenseman like Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock could put the team in hole. Without one of those three, it is hard to see New York making a suitable offer. The defending two-time Cup champs are in a similar situation. While many Pens fans would love to see the embarrassment of riches of Duchene as the third line center behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh too lacks the cap space, currently about $3.25MM, and the pieces to get the job done. That is, unless Sakic is keen on Olli Maatta or the Penguins offer up Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, or an overwhelming offer of picks and prospects including Derrick Pouliot and enough salary to offset Duchene. It’s a series of unlikely scenarios. Additionally, the Montreal Canadiens lack anything remotely close to a young top four defenseman. Duchene would be a great fit for the Habs, but they simply don’t have the pieces.

The Hurricanes and Bruins certainly have the pieces to acquire Duchene, but it seems unlikely that either will be the team to finally do it. Boston was in talks with Colorado last year, but balked at the ask of a package including Charlie McAvoy or Brandon Carlo and wouldn’t be willing to move Torey Krug either. If the price drops, the B’s have talented young defenders like Jakob Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Ryan Lindgren, and 2017 first rounder Uhro Vaakanainen waiting in the wings, but even if that was enough, the Bruins’ quiet off-season has indicated that they would like to move forward with their own young players this season. Carolina, on the other hand, is a Duchene-caliber player away from being a true contender and would love to add someone with his ability. However, GM Ron Francis has made it clear that he does not want to trade any of his defensemen. That hasn’t stopped TSN for listing “a Carolina defenseman” as one of their top trade candidates, but as of now there is no reason to think any of Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, or Noah Hanifin are going anywhere. Like Boston, Carolina still has solid pieces if the price drops, such as Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, but another thought has been whispered this summer that may take Carolina out of the Duchene race altogether. Since acquiring Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights back in June, a player who by all accounts they didn’t really need, many have speculated that Carolina is looking to make a run at 2018 premiere free agent James van Riemsdyk, to bring in the scoring power forward that they desperately desire.

The Blue Jackets and Sharks would be ideal landing spots for Duchene, but both teams would need to get creative with their offers. Both squads have a need for a scoring forward, the cap space to take him on and plenty of talented defensemen, but what they would be willing up on the blue line is not exactly what Colorado desires. There is no way that Columbus includes Zach Werenski or Seth Jones in a deal, but could be open to trading David Savard or Ryan Murray. However, each have a caveat. Savard, while a solid top-four talent, has had durability issues and difficulty with consistent production over the past couple of years. While he would be a great addition to any defense, that may not be what Sakic is looking to get back. Murray, while injury prone, is a highly-skilled young rearguard, but, amazingly, the 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Any deal involving Murray would first have to include a long-term extension with the league’s worst team. Columbus’ best chance of getting Duchene likely involves a package with top defensive prospect Gabriel Carlsson and a young roster player like Josh Anderson or Oliver Bjorkstrand. San Jose also has a few untouchables on defense, namely superstars Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Colorado also wouldn’t be interested in veterans Paul Martin and Justin Braun. That leaves Brenden Dillon and Dylan DeMelo as the top options. While both have shown top-four potential, they have largely played shutdown roles in their young careers and bring little offensive upside. Like Savard, one would think that Sakic has a little more in mind for the Duchene return than stay-at-home defenders like Dillon and DeMelo. If the Sharks package versatile puck-moving D-prospect Jeremy Roy with either though, then talks could really get started. A package that starts like that and ends with a first-round pick and one of San Jose’s many young forwards could be enough to seal the deal.

Yet, the top candidate to bring in Duchene is likely the reigning Western Conference champs. No, the Predators are not moving any of Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, or Mattias Ekholm, but the trick up their sleeve is top prospect Dante Fabbro. A junior teammate of Colorado top prospect Tyson Jost, Fabbro is considered one of the best prospects in hockey and should step into a top four role immediately when he leaves Boston University, much like Charlie McAvoy, who Sakic already targeted in Boston. Fabbro is not just a top-four defenseman, but a potential future #1 or at least a great option to pair with Cale Makar down the road. Sakic would be hard-pressed to find more upside up for grabs than Fabbro, but the Predators are set long-term on the blue line and desperately need to recoup the scoring lost in the Expansion Draft with the selection of James Neal. Fabbro, plus a young forward like Colton Sissons, Frederick Gaudreau, or Pontus Aberg, plus a first rounder and another pick or prospect, and Duchene could surely be on his way to Nashville.

Only time will tell where Duchene ends up, but the best case scenario for all parties is for that destination to not be Denver, Colorado for much longer. Sakic must and will eventually lower his asking price and someone will meet those demands. Could it be Nashville, Columbus, or San Jose? Definitely. Could it be Boston or Carolina? The Islanders or the Penguins? Possibly. Someone totally off the board? Of course. For such a talked-about topic, there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the situation. The next step will be to see if Duchene shows up to camp on Thursday. That decision could have a resounding effect on the trade process.

Money To Move Out In Potential Pittsburgh Trade

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Often lost in the narrative chronicling the Penguins’ need for a third-line center is the fact that money will almost certainly head the other direction in any trade. Currently, Pittsburgh is a respectable $3.82 MM under the cap ceiling, but a few factors should be considered. Firstly, GM Jim Rutherford will almost surely allot at least $1 MM in space to acquire necessary rentals at the trade deadline. Second, his defensive and center depth is rather weak overall, so any move would likely not be the last before a post-season pursuit. Third, and perhaps most important, multiple contracts on the horizon will force uncomfortable decisions on wing and top-four defense.

With Matt Cullen departing for Minnesota, the Penguins’ third best center is Carter Rowney, just one season removed from AHL plug duty. Zach Aston-Reese could fill in temporarily, but it’s not ideal for his first professional season. The teams needs an upper-echelon third center option, and available options are supremely limited league-wide. Rutherford claimed to have half a dozen options in July, but with the summer expiring the options are far fewer. Although Rutherford is playing his cards close to his chest, it’s nearly inconceivable that the Penguins go into the new year without greater certainty at that position. A move needs to be made.

On defense, the team will need to determine the future of multiple players. It’s a fair assumption that the team will bank on the improved health of Norris-capable Kris Letang, for better or worse. Justin Schultz is also safe, as is the dependable Brian Dumoulin. In that fourth position, will the Pens re-sign impending UFA Ian Cole, or will his shot-blocking mentality start to show its toll? Is Olli Maatta worth $4.083 MM on a cash strapped team? Will Derrick Pouliot finally clean up his turnovers and make an impact in the Steel City and make either expendable? If Maatta’s skating doesn’t substantially improve, it’s a safe bet his contract will be the one off-loaded in any transaction, regardless of potential and upside.

On offense, the team will also need to make painful judgments. Patric Hornqvist is entering his final year of his contract, and at 31 years old, how will his body hold up multiple seasons into a new contract? Would Bryan Rust be able to replace his intangibles and hard-nosed offense at a fraction of the cost? His internal value is incredibly high, but he’s been relegated to a third-line role for the foreseeable future. Additionally, how devoted is Pittsburgh to the Phil Kessel model? It seems incredibly far-fetched that the team might consider moving Kessel, and they would undoubtedly receive a lesser player in any trade. Still, his $6.8 MM is a strain on the overall forward structure. With Jake Guentzel looking to land a substantial raise in two seasons, Kessel may not be entirely untouchable. Finally, could an accessory piece be moved off the roster as a throw-in for a potential elite third-line center? Impending RFA Scott Wilson isn’t the most glamorous of names, but he could easily earn decent money on his next contract and provide depth scoring for a re-building team. Carl Hagelin’s $4 MM was well above his current rate of production, and his blistering speed could be a tempting add for any squad.

In the final evaluation, Pittsburgh will almost certainly part with a roster player if they are to land a significant piece at the 3rd-line center position. Maatta seems most likely, and has for some time, but the selling teams will have a definite upper-hand in all negotiations, and the money complicates matters. The team has shown time and again it is willing to part with high-end draft picks, but any impending deal will necessarily be more intricate, considering the dearth of the organization’s prospect pool and other contributing factors.

Nugent-Hopkins Watch Might Start Early

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With the recent signings of Leon Draisaitl ($8.5 MM AAV), and Connor McDavid ($12.5 MM), there are those around the league who are anxious to see how GM Peter Chiarelli will deal with the inevitable cap crunch on the horizon. David Staples of the Edmonton Journal contends that the possibility of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being moved in the short-term is overblown. That said, it stands to reason that Nugent-Hopkins will be a focus of trade speculation for a long while. Milan Lucic is the only other forward with as heavy a cap hit, also at $6 MM AAV, but he has a no-movement clause to accompany his deal. If money is moving out, Nugent-Hopkins could be the man in the cross-hairs.

Staples provides a useful breakdown of salary for the next three seasons, and shows how minimal that cap crunch might end up being. Still, it’s expected that Edmonton will attempt to build on its successful season and attempt to compete this year. If they want to add this season, they can certainly do so at the deadline. With their current $8.33 MM in space they’ll have over $30 MM in deadline space, so it seems reasonable to anticipate short-term buys. That said, any additions will complicate the cap picture in 2018-19.  They’ve already moved multiple pieces who initially had great value, notably Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz, and received little in return, with the exception of Adam Larsson (for Hall). It seems unlikely that Chiarelli would risk having another top pick and valuable asset thrive elsewhere just in the name of saving a few dollars.

The trade of Jordan Eberle certainly alleviated some of the pressure that Nugent-Hopkins is bound to face, but that may only be temporary. His 18 goals and 25 assists in a full season are a sharp decline from even his rookie totals. For Nugent-Hopkins to cement his place on a team with two momentous contracts, his production will need to improve dramatically. He’ll certainly see more scrutiny this campaign if he struggles for long stretches, as the concern over money will only make fans and reporters more critical. If the 24 year-old were to be traded, it would most certainly be next summer, when the crunch really starts to surface as McDavid’s hit kicks in. Even after another season under 50 points, Nugent-Hopkins would likely bring in a sizable haul via trade, which might fill out the rest of the forward corps at a cheaper price in Edmonton. Thankfully for the Oil, the organization has multiple players who can slot in at center if necessary – Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Jussi Jokinen, and Ryan Strome all have experience up the middle and could slot in after McDavid. Nugent-Hopkins will have to stand well above his competition at camp and throughout the year to prove his long-term value to the organization. If it’s another season of being outclassed by the likes of Letestu, he could find himself in the midst of intense speculation.

Penguins Sign Defenseman Kevin Czuczman

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Last off-season, the Pittsburgh Penguins went on a signing spree, inking a whole bunch of defenseman with even the slightest NHL experience to two-way deals in hopes that bolstering their defensive depth would pay off. The 2016 names included Chad Ruhwedel, Cameron Gaunce, Steve Oleksy, David Warsofsky, Stuart Percy, and Tim Erixon. After a season where their NHL defensive corps suffered injury after injury and the AHL depth was constantly called upon, even earning Ruhwedel a new contract, the Penguins are back at it again this summer. New additions already include Zach Trotman, Jarred Tinordi, Chris Summers, and an extension for Trade Deadline acquisition Frank Corrado as well.

Add another name to the list, as the Penguins announced today that they have signed Kevin Czuczman to a one-year, two-way deal worth the $650K minimum at the NHL level. Czuczman spent the 2016-17 season with the AHL’s Manitoba Moose on a minor league contract, but posted the best scoring numbers of his entire hockey career, with 32 points in 76 games. The former Lake Superior State standout has NHL experience as well, as he signed with the New York Islanders out of college in 2014 and played in 13 games down the stretch with the team, recording two points. Since, Czuczman bounced around the Islanders’ minor league affiliates and then moved to Manitoba, establishing himself as a good defensive defenseman and a locker room leader along the way. Czuczman will provide some solid stay-at-home depth for a team that often lacks that type of player.

Will Czuczman see any NHL action in 2017-18 though? Probably not. The Penguins’ top six of Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, and newcomer Matt Hunwick is well-established and Ruhwedel has likely earned the #7 spot. Down in Wilkes-Barre, Corrado and Derrick Pouliot will push for roster spots and, assuming they fall short, will certainly be the first call-ups. Trotman, who played in large chunks of the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons with the Boston Bruins, and Tinordi, who was a spot starter for the Montreal Canadiens for years, are then next up on the depth chart. That would make Czuczman approximately 12th on the Pittsburgh organizational depth chart. With all that said, if any team is gonna blow through eleven defenders this season, it’s the injury-prone Penguins. Czuczman chose his new home wisely.

Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Justin Schultz

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have re-signed one of their most important pieces, inking Justin Schultz to a three-year, $16.5MM contract. The deal runs through 2019-20, after which Schultz will become an unrestricted free agent.

Schultz has had his career completely resuscitated since joining the high-flying Penguins last season. Signing as a big-name college free agent, he struggled for parts of four seasons in Edmonton before being shipped for a third-round pick at the 2016 deadline. Schultz went on to win the Stanley Cup in back-to-back seasons, and was especially important this last post-season, helping fill the void left by the injury to Kris Letang.

Schultz is known primarily as an offensive defenseman. His isn’t overly physical and generally isn’t played in shutdown situations. However, he was far from sheltered last season in Pittsburgh, playing over 20 minutes a night in the regular season against quality competition, generally being slotted alongside the stay-at-home Ian Cole on the second pairing. Schultz finished the season with 51 points, good for 7th among all NHL defenseman. Notably, he finished within 5 points of household names like Duncan Keith, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Dustin Byfuglien. He was a solid shooting option on the powerplay and truly flourished once May rolled around, adding 4 goals and 9 assists as he utilized a solid first-pass to spring the more threatening Pittsburgh forwards.

His $5.5 MM cap hit is likely more than what GM Jim Rutherford had expected to set aside for him when acquired just over a season ago. Fellow restricted free-agent Brian Dumoulin is also looking to get a payday this summer, so it remains to be seen whether some money may be moving out from the defense corps. A possible target could be Olli Maatta who is coming off a sluggish year, and is earning $4.083 MM for the next 5 seasons. Dumoulin and Schultz have definitively passed Maatta on the depth chart, and this sort of financial commitment will only add fuel to the fire that Maatta is the odd man out.

Metropolitan Division Offers Vegas Multiple Goalies, Project Players

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The Metropolitan Division was undoubtedly the most competitive last season, with 3 of the league’s top 5 points finishers within it, including the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. Some teams in the Metro have prepared poorly, while others look to take a minor hit and move on from expansion relatively unscathed. No major surprises exist outside of Brooklyn, where the Islanders took the crown for the most unorthodox and confounding strategy.

The Penguins seem to have known for quite some time that Marc-Andre Fleury was Vegas bound. GM Jim Rutherford balked at trade offers last off-season despite the goalie’s no-movement clause potentially complicating matters further down the line. The organization finally asked him to waive his clause in February, and both parties seem willing to move on. Rutherford did seem to be leaning toward the 7-3-1 model originally, but eventually opted to go with the 4-4 route to protect both Olli Maatta and Justin Schultz. If for whatever reason Fleury is not chosen, playoff performer Bryan Rust is almost certainly the claim. Columbus’ list is about what we expected, but it still seems strange to see Josh Anderson and Jack Johnson are left exposed. If there is a deal in place for a 1st round pick, as reported earlier by the Columbus Dispatch, Johnson is the likely selection. He’s still got a lot of talent, and with all his international experience, he could be a great leader for younger players in Vegas.

The Philadelphia Flyers made one of the smarter (if unexpected) decisions of the day and opted to protect Scott Laughton over assistant captain Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and the streaky Michael Raffl. Jordan Weal is still left exposed, and theoretically any of the three could be headed to Vegas. The Washington Capitals are absolutely going to lose a solid player, and it’s destined to be either the very promising defenseman Nate Schmidt or standout goalie Philipp Grubauer. The Capitals knew this was coming for a long time, but it can’t hurt any less to lose assets in this fashion. A possible scenario to watch out for is whether Vegas will pursue T.J. Oshie as a free agent in the short-term. They have first dibs on negotiations if they want to open that conversation, and he’s considered by many to be the top available UFA. The team doesn’t really need another goaltender, and their defense would survive without Schmidt, even with his incredible talent.

The New Jersey Devils arguably have the weakest roster on paper at the moment, and it shows with the potential selections Vegas need to consider. Mike Cammalleri is unproductive and overpaid, Beau Bennett has all but busted when he isn’t injured, Jacob Josefson scored one goal last season, and Devante Smith-Pelly is with his third club in as many years. The New York Rangers couldn’t move Antti Raanta and now it seems probable that Vegas will take advantage. Other options would include Jesper Fast and the very productive (27 goals) Michael Grabner, neither of whom is good enough to justify passing on the solid Raanta. No surprises here, but management certainly waited until the final hour to buyout Dan Girardi – which allowed them to utilize that 7-3-1 strategy effectively. Carolina will offer up one of the worst prizes to the Golden Knights, and Lee Stempniak is the only name that truly jumps out. Long-time goalie Cam Ward finds himself on the outs, as does Eddie Lack, but when the team moved for Scott Darling this fate was very foreseeable. Perhaps management will try to entice Vegas to claim one of the keepers and help their logjam along.

The New York Islanders seem to have botched their efforts today, but there may be machinations behind the scenes which could justify such a bizarre strategy. GM Garth Snow opted to protect only 3 forwards and 5 defensemen – the only team to do so. Even worse, one of the defenseman left unprotected was Calvin de Haan. Assuming there is no deal to take a blueliner in the works, Vegas could choose de Haan or their favorite from a large selection of intriguing forwards. Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, and Ryan Strome are all available, and each provides a different skillset. McPhee could even take one of the league’s toughest bottom sixers in Casey Cizikas or a crafty, veteran Nikolai Kulemin. He has loads of options, and none of them are any good for an Islanders team who survive off their depth. Why Adam Pelech, with his 12 career points and 46.6% Corsi For in 2016-17, was worth protection over any of those names will surely be one of the draft’s greatest quandaries.

Vegas will get an opportunity to draft their starting two goaltenders from the Metro, and will have a wide assortment of options elsewhere. The Washington situation should be fun to speculate on, and trying to find a worthwhile pick in New Jersey could be an adventure for the Knights. Snow’s Islanders are just an incredible anomaly, and that list may draw some serious criticism.

Pittsburgh Penguins Win The 2017 Stanley Cup

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After a back-and-forth battle and a goaltending showcase for the ages, the Pittsburgh Penguins finally broke a 0-0 tie with the Nashville Predators with 1:35 remaining in the third period of Game Six on Sunday night and added a empty netter with seconds left to take a 2-0 win and capture the 2017 Stanley Cup title. The Penguins successfully defended their 2016 championship to become the first team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998 to win back-to-back titles. It is the first time in the salary cap era of NHL hockey that any team has won consecutive Stanley Cups.

On their road to another championship, the Penguins entered as the #2 seed out of the Atlantic Division and wiped out the upstart Columbus Blue Jackets in just five games. Pittsburgh then took on the top-seeded Washington Capitals, knocking out the President’s Trophy-winners for the second straight season, in a hard-fought seven-game series. The Ottawa Senators, out of the Atlantic Division, also took the Penguins to a Game Seven in the Eastern Conference final, but again the Penguins were victorious. The Stanley Cup Final was a face-off against an unexpected opponent, a Nashville Predators team that had entered as the second wild card team in the Western Conference and the 16th-seed overall, but swept the powerhouse Chicago Blackhawks and beat both the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks in six games. The performance of the Predators and the enthusiasm of the city of Nashville should not be understated and will likely be how many remember the 2017 playoffs. However, the Penguins were too much for the Predators, outscoring Nashville 17-4 in their four wins, including a shutout in the series-clinching win on the road.

The Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs, was given to Sidney Crosby. The captain of the team and the NHL’s leading scorer, Crosby notched 8 goals and 19 assists on his way to the title. Crosby became just the third player to ever win back-to-back Conn Smythe Trophy’s, joining Bernie Parent and Penguins owner Mario Lemieux. Other standouts of the playoff run include Crosby’s partner in crime, Evgeni Malkin, who outscored the captain by one point to lead all postseason scorers with ten goals and 18 assists. Both goalies, veteran Marc-Andre Fleury and rookie Matt Murray were phenomenal, with Fleury winning nine games while Murray was sidelined, and the youngster taking over to win the final seven and take home his second Stanley Cup despite still being a rookie. Murray posted a .931 save percentage and 1.87 goals against average in 10 appearance as he continues to develop a legacy as a clutch performer. Chris Kunitz lifted the Stanley Cup for the fourth time, the most among active players, while on the flip side trade deadline acquisition Ron Hainsey, who at 35 years old had never even played in the postseason, made the most of his first appearance. Justin Schultz was incredible as the surrogate leader of the defense for the sidelined Kris Letang, as he fought through injuries himself and posted 12 points during the Cup run. And who could forget rookie Jake Guentzel, who led the team with 13 goals, including an amazing five game-winners. In an ironic twist, Patric Hornqvist the final pick of the NHL Draft by the Nashville Predators in the same year that Crosby went #1, got the game winning goal to deny his former franchise their first ever Stanley Cup.

The frightening part for NHL fans is that, unlike their dynastic rivals in Chicago among others, the Penguins should remain largely intact heading into 2017-18. Fleury will likely be gone, but is no longer the starter anyway. Several veteran defenseman and bottom-six forwards could go as well, but Pittsburgh will for the most part return at full strength in October as they look to keep this incredible streak going. Crosby is still just 29 years old and he and the Penguins are far from finished. Congratulations to the 2017 Stanley Cup champs from the staff at PHR.

Penguins Will Have Lots Of Offseason Decisions To Make On ‘D’

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The Pittsburgh Penguins are just one win away from capturing their second straight Stanley Cup title with Game 6 tonight, but they’ve done it throughout the playoffs with one of the most unheralded defensive corps possible. With two-time all-star Kris Letang out for the season with neck surgery he underwent on Apr. 13, the team has played without a star defenseman and it showed early in this series when the Predators dominated in Games 1 and 2. However, the defense held together and took things a step further the other day in Game 5 when the defense dominated on both offense and defense. They got two goals and three assists during that victory.

That defense, made up of Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Trevor Daley, Ron Hainsey, Brian Dumoulin and Justin Schultz, has held tough and just might be increasing their stock as the offseason approaches for them in the next few days. The Penguins may have a few offseason issues to deal with in the upcoming weeks when it comes to their defense. While Letang is locked up until 2021-22 ($7.5MM), only two others are officially under contract for next year. The 22-year-old Matta is also under contract until 2021-22 ($4.083MM) and Cole has one more year left at $2.1MM. The rest are all free agents with Daley and Hainsey listed as unrestricted free agents, while Dumoulin and Schultz are both restricted free agents who should command more than they made this past year.

Daley played a much stronger game in Game 5 and was able to move the puck much more quickly in that performance. He is completing a six-year deal ($3.3MM) and the Penguins must decide if they want to bring the 33-year old back next season. He played in just 56 games and had 5 goals and 14 assists for 19 points, but has had a goal and five assists in the playoffs, including a key assist in Game 5. Hainsey came over as a rental from Carolina at the trade deadline. The 36-year-old is finishing up a three-year deal in which he was getting $2.833MM per season. Hainsey finished the season with four goals and 13 assists, but has proven valuable in the playoffs which could net him a solid offer next year. The veteran has put up two goals and six assists during the playoffs despite struggling to keep up with the top line.

The Penguins must also make key decisions on the restricted front. Dumoulin is wrapping up his second full season with Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old has played solidly and should get quite an increase from the $800,000 he is currently making. Dumoulin, a gifted young defender, scored one goal and added 14 assists this season, while adding a goal and five assists in the playoffs this year. He’s even been mentioned as a possible expansion candidate if the team trades backup goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. Finally, Schultz is coming off a breakout year. After taking a paycut last year from $3.9MM in 2015-16 to $1.4MM this year, the 26-year-old will be looking for a long term deal after putting up 12 goals and 39 assists this past year. His playoff performance should also improve his stock with four goals and eight assists so far.

The Penguins should have plenty of questions to answer once they reach the offseason.

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

With the Penguins up two games to zero in the Stanley Cup Finals, the team’s success under the guidance of GM Jim Rutherford cannot be understated. Potential back-to-back championships following a long list of playoff disappointments and identity crises would all but erase the sting of many poor management decisions under former GM Ray Shero.

After the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the team has not looked back in the slightest offensively. They sat out and relished their summer last off-season with minimal movement, but this year Rutherford has decisions to make. Although the makeup of the team will surely be different come October, there are many options to be considered.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Sidney Crosby (NMC), Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Phil Kessel (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, Josh Archibald (RFA), Oskar Sundqvist (RFA), Jean-Sebastien Dea (RFA)

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin (RFA), Derrick Pouliot (RFA), Justin Schultz (RFA), Frank Corrado (RFA), Tim Erixon (RFA), Stuart Percy (RFA)

Goalies:

Marc-Andre Fleury (NMC), Matt Murray

Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney, Tristan Jarry, Zach Aston-Reese, Thomas DiPauli, Teddy Blueger, Dominik Simon,  Jeff Taylor, Ethan Prow, Lukas Bengtsson, Sean Maguire

Key Decisions

To get the elephant in the room cleared aside, it seems a foregone conclusion that Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his No Movement Clause in order for the franchise to protect Matt Murray. This arrangement would suit him, as he performs far better statistically in a starting role, and it allows him to be “the guy” in a new city. If for some unforeseen reason Fleury opts against waiving his NMC, Rutherford will assuredly find a trade elsewhere prior to the expansion draft. At the end of the day, Murray, with two amazing playoff performances at only 23 years-old, is going nowhere.

The other four players who must be protected are those which will not give management any sleepless nights. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both future hall of famers playing prime hockey, providing great value for their contracts. Kessel, at his reduced rate, has absolutely exceeded expectations when his contract was shipped from Toronto. Kris Letang is the only player who some fans have balked out, as he has missed substantial chunks of time, consistently hitting LTIR and wasting cap dollars. Letang, however, is easily a top-10 defenseman in the league,. Watching how these playoffs have been far less decisive than last for Pittsburgh, there is no doubt the entire organization is willing to take the risk to have him return to the blueline.

The major decision right off the start will be whether Rutherford will decide to go with the 7 forwards-3 defensemen-1 goalie model, or the 8 total protected alternative. It seems apparent that most teams will opt for the former, because it provides protection to two additional players. The Penguins, however, are facing truly unique circumstances, and it seems slightly more likely that they will opt for the latter.

Assuming they go that route to protect their defensive corps (one of Justin Schultz/Olli Maatta), the decision at forward will not be an easy one. Beyond the big three up front who must be protected, there are a few names which could intrigue Vegas. Considering the cost to acquire him (James Neal), and his absolutely pivotal net-front presence, Patrick Hornqvist seems the safest bet to secure protection. Rutherford is a big fan, and many in management have placed a lot of faith in him. The downside of this, of course, is that it would leave Bryan Rust exposed. Rust has already made a name for himself in big games, with multiple game-winning and series-clinching goals. He has the same net-front mentality that Hornqvist does, and is five years his junior. Hornqvist is the more proven offensive commodity, but Rust’s 15 goals and 28 points are nothing to look down upon. In the wake of a potential loss of the hard nosed but unrestricted Chris Kunitz, this would be a painful blow to the team’s physicality. Thankfully, both Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are exempt from selection, which helps solidify their top lines regardless of this decision.

The defense if the 4-4-1 model is adopted is quite easy to predict. Although Ian Cole has been a completely perfect shot-blocking minute muncher this playoff run, he is 28 years old and relatively ineffective at driving offense with speed. Assuming that Schultz re-signs and doesn’t command an absolute robbery of a contract, he will be protected. His playoff run has been mostly solid, if spotted with occasional mishap, and his 51 points last season was good for 6th among defenseman in the league, just behind the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith. That sort of production isn’t easily replaced, and especially considering Letang’s precarious health situation, he is the go-to offensive defenseman in his absence.

Maatta could certainly find himself on the outs, but it’s difficult to imagine him being exposed in the expansion draft. The team showed a great deal of confidence in him by inking him to a 6 year contract after limited sophomore season action, and his contract at $4.083 is certainly manageable. The 23 year-old two-way defender will certainly need to improve his skating to keep up with the high-flying organizational mentality, and there is the possibility his sluggishness has landed him in serious disfavor. If Rutherford were intent on moving on from Maatta, however, it would not be via expansion – he is too valuable a piece to lose for nothing. A trade is certainly a possibility, but the smart money is on the front office praying for a healthy summer of training and improvement for the young Finn.

It is certainly conceivable that the Penguins do opt for the 7-3-1 option, if they truly value Rust more than Schultz or Maatta. This would result in Rust, Scott Wilson, and one of Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald, and Carl Hagelin to be the additional protect-ees. (Hagelin’s $4 MM contract would likely make him a prime target for sacrifice under this scenario.) Maatta would be the likely claim in this potentiality, as he is less favored internally for purely stylistic reasons when contrasted with Schultz.

However, it seems more likely that Pittsburgh has already worked out a scenario between Fleury, his agent, and Vegas management regarding Marc-Andre Fleury. Rutherford’s lack of panic around the draft last year has led many to believe that this situation has already been handled, and that perhaps a sweetener will be thrown in for not claiming Bryan Rust or a young defenseman.

Projected Protection List

F Sidney Crosby (NMC)
F Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
F Phil Kessel (NMC)
F Patrick Hornqvist

D Kris Letang (NMC)
D Brian Dumoulin
D Justin Schultz
D Olli Maatta

G Matt Murray

If for whatever reason one of Maatta and Schultz is left to dry in the place of this prediction, the re-signing of Trevor Daley and perhaps even Ron Hainsey would likely follow suit. The loss of Rust would be difficult to sustain on an emotional level, as he has been a leader for the younger Wilkes-Barre call-ups since last season. But with young players like Zach Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong looking to claim a roster spot in training camp next season, his offensive production would likely be easy to absorb. Ultimately, however, it seems probable that Fleury will be Vegas’ selection. Following his impressive resurgence in the first two round of the playoffs, and his difficult situation in Pittsburgh behind the legendary Matt Murray, it seems a fit that would work for all parties involved.

Snapshots: Orlov, Kuznetsov, Schultz, Patrick

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

While Washington GM Brian MacLellan’s suggestion that he’d consider trading Alex Ovechkin if the right ‘hockey deal’ came up down the road dominated the headlines yesterday, there were several other topics that came up during his session with the media.

Among those was a note regarding pending restricted free agents Dmitry Orlov and Evgeni Kuznetsov.  There have already been reports that CSKA Moscow has expressed an interest in Orlov while KHL teams in general are making a concerted effort to bring Russian players back home and are hoping that the non-Olympic participation could work in their favor.  Despite that, MacLellan noted to reporters, including Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Mid-Atlantic, that he’s hopeful of getting deals done with both players within the next month and that they’re open to signing both to long-term contracts.

The cap could potentially stand in the way of both getting longer deals though.  The Capitals already have $50MM committed in payroll for next season to only 11 players with several prominent unrestricted free agents (including T.J. Oshie and Karl Alzner among others) on top of Orlov and Kuznetsov which means MacLellan will have a lot of tough decisions to make in the weeks ahead.

Other notes from around the league:

  • Penguins GM Jim Rutherford told Ken Campbell of The Hockey News that a new contract for Justin Schultz is his “top priority” when the playoffs end. Schultz took a $2.5MM pay cut last summer, banking on himself to have a bigger year with a full season in Pittsburgh.  That’s exactly what happened as he had a career high 51 points.  Pittsburgh’s cap situation could come into play though as Rutherford acknowledged that an arbitration award for Schultz – who sits one year from unrestricted free agency – could come in higher than they can afford.  Accordingly, it’s likely that Pittsburgh will hope that Schultz will forego going after top dollar to stick with a system that seems to fit him perfectly.
  • Top draft prospect Nolan Patrick has been medically cleared to participate in the draft combine that is set to occur this Friday and Saturday, notes NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman. He was dealing with a lower body injury sustained just before the WHL postseason.  Patrick is ranked first overall for the upcoming draft by NHL Central Scouting and has already met with representatives from the Devils who hold the first overall pick.

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