PHR Mailbag: Duchene, Kessel, Hurricanes, Bruins
We’ve been taking your off-season inquiries over the weekend in the comments and using #PHRMailbag on Twitter. Here are some questions and answers to ponder:
Conorsoxfan: Is Matt Duchene still going to be moved? What about Landeskog? Are the Avs waiting for the right offer or are they holding on to all their assets for now?
We received several questions about Matt Duchene and for good reason. The Avalanche have been speaking with teams since the Trade Deadline about moving the talented forward and Duchene himself is on record as saying that he is open to a move, but months later he is still in Colorado. It seems that GM Joe Sakic has a very specific (and lofty) return in mind and is hesitant to move Duchene without getting exactly what he wants. That return certainly includes a young, proven defenseman, which is not exactly a commodity that most teams are eager to move. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Carolina Hurricanes seem like they have the best chance of meeting Sakic’s demands, as both teams are loaded with young, NHL-ready defenseman. However, the rumor that Colorado rejected a deal for Travis Hamonic that included Duchene makes you wonder if Sakic is searching for a caliber of player that is simply unavailable. It would be best for Duchene, the Avs, and the rest of the NHL trade market if a deal would get done sooner rather than later, but don’t be surprised if Duchene is still a talking point at the next Trade Deadline.
As for Gabriel Landeskog, rumors of his deaparture have definitely been on the back burner this summer after he too was hot topic at the Trade Deadline. Although the Avalanche are coming off a historically bad season, they seem to be playing it safe with their rebuild. They have not sold off all of their veteran pieces, nor have they operated like a team that’s pushing for a playoff spot. Their only major additions this season are a backup goaltender, Jonathan Bernier, and a low risk-high reward gamble, Nail Yakupov. They got potentially the best player in the draft at #4 overall in defenseman Cale Makar, but he is at least two seasons away from seeing NHL ice time. It seems that Sakic is content with keeping his roster intact and slowly adding in younger players and moving out older pieces. That type of status quo strategy would seem to indicate that Colorado isn’t keen on losing its captain unless the return could truly change the course of the franchise. Especially if Duchene does end up traded, don’t expect Landeskog to follow. He’s likely to remain in Colorado for the time being.
@Wings16Canes13: When and will Pittsburgh trade Kessel? Or does another coach have to go first?
It always seems like there’s some controversy surrounding Phil Kessel. This question alludes to rumors coming out of Pittsburgh that the uber-talented winger and head coach Mike Sullivan don’t see eye-to-eye on many things. Moreover, it’s been said that assistant Rick Tocchet acted as go-between for the two these past two seasons, and with Tocchet likely headed to Arizona as the head coach of the Coyotes, the relationship between Kessel and Sullivan could get worse. However, the Pittsburgh Penguins are also back-to-back Stanley Cup champs, with both Kessel and Sullivan playing major roles in each title. Neither is likely to be on the move any time soon, especially not because they dislike each other. It may not be the most comfortable locker room, but the two will learn to live with each other and any struggles for the Penguins in 2017-18 will be attributed to Stanley Cup hangover, not a feuding coach and player. With that said, Kessel has a $6.8MM cap hit for five more years, which could cause cap trouble down the road for the Penguins, while the team has also shown a willingness to move on from head coaches after just a down season or two. Both Kessel and Sullivan could be gone in a few years, but it’s impossible to know which first and when, only that it’s highly unlikely to be this year.
mikedickinson: Hurricanes are loaded on defense and have three kids who can play in the AHL as well. They aren’t trading any of their top 4. Can they trade from their strength to address a weakness (center)? Also, JVR to Raleigh to play with his brother?
The Carolina Hurricanes boast one of the youngest, deepest, and most talented defensive corps in the entire league. All-Star Justin Faulk leads a group that includes 2015 #5 pick Noah Hanifin, 2012 fourth-rounder Jaccob Slavin, 2013 third-rounder Brett Pesce, 2014 #7 pick Haydn Fleury, 2014 second-rounder Roland McKeown, and now the recently-acquired Trevor van Riemsdyk, not to mention dependable depth defender Klas Dahlbeck and 2016-17 AHL surprise Jake Chelios. There’s also 2016 first-rounder Jake Bean to consider as well, though he remains in juniors. That group has one thing in common: none of them are more than 26 years old. When the Hurricanes acquired van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights last month, many felt that the move indicated that Faulk, the team’s top right-shot defenseman, would be on the move. After all, the team has been linked to Matt Duchene as well as others as they try to bring their forward depth up to the same level as their defense. However, GM Ron Francis has stated since that he wants to keep his starters together. It also seems unlikely that he’s keen to move talented teenager Bean, leaving promising, but slowly developing players like Fleury, McKeown, and Chelios as his top trade chips from the blue line. None of those players will get a Duchene or similar-caliber player, but don’t be surprised if the ‘Canes use them to add some depth forwards this off-season or along the way next season. If Francis is posturing, then yes any of Faulk, Hanafin, Slavin, or Pesce could be used to bring in a big fish.
As for James van Riemsdyk, it is an interesting development to have his brother in Carolina, an up-and-coming team (like the Maple Leafs) that’s in need of an impact forward. JVR is entering the final year of his contract and it seems unlikely that Toronto will re-sign him, considering the expensive extensions coming down the line for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. The question then becomes whether or not the Leafs are interested in moving him this off-season and whether the Hurricanes are willing to pay the price for his services this year when they can sign him next summer for free. If the Leafs look to deal him, Fleury or McKeown as the centerpieces likely won’t cut it. The Leafs are on the hunt for a top-pair right-shot to pair with Morgan Rielly and Faulk certainly fits the bill, but that’s a high price to pay for an impending free agent. I think you’re on to something with JVR and TVR teaming up in Carolina, but I think it could come at a lower price toward the Trade Deadline or via free agency next off-season.
mpfallon: Will the bruins make some big offseason moves?
This depends on your definition of “big”. Despite rumors that the Bruins have been looking into acquiring a top-four left-handed defenseman and a top-six winger, GM Don Sweeney has also made it clear that he doesn’t want to acquire players that will block Boston’s talented young prospects. College star Anders Bjork, 2015 first-rounder Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, who got a taste of the NHL last year, and possibly even Danton Heinen and Jesse Gabrielle will all compete with Frank Vatrano, Matt Beleskey, and recent signing Kenny Agostino for a top-nine spot on the left side, and Ryan Spooner could join the mix if the B’s prefer rookie Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson at third line center. The left wing battle could spill over to the right side as well, where top forward prospect Zach Senyshyn will also look to make the team. On the blue line, Rob O’Gara, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon will all fight for the final spot on the left side, and the recent signing of Paul Postma could indicate that the team is okay with moving Kevan Miller to the left side to free up a spot for Adam McQuaid to continue to be a starter with Postma as the seventh man.
There is more than enough depth in Boston that the Bruins may make no moves for the rest of the off-season. Odds are that they do something, but likely not anything “big”. A trade for a left-shot defenseman, possibly a Nick Holden or Jonathan Ericsson, or the signing of a stopgap winger, like Drew Stafford, Thomas Vanek, or Alex Chiasson seems possible, but anything bigger could be a long shot. So the short answer to your question is no, they won’t make “big off-season moves”. They could make a small, but significant move or two, but chances are a big trade would come closer to the Trade Deadline after they give the kids a shot first.
Course Adjustment For Colorado
Colorado needs to determine the road ahead for its franchise. The unexpected plummet to the 4th overall pick in the draft lottery did not help matters, to be sure, but the Avalanche need more than a Nolan Patrick to catapult them back into contention. The team has lacked identity for years and a team philosophy is hard to isolate. The team finished a league worst 22 wins, good for an embarrassingly bad 48 points. They were not expected to be serious cup contenders coming into the year, but this is a team that had veteran scorers and a decent goaltending duo to back up their young forward core. Yet they finished in dead last in both offensive and defensive categories – 1.74 goals for per 60, and 2.93 goals against. With such an incredible disparity it’s actually impressive they won as many contests as they did.
GM Joe Sakic needs to determine which pieces of his core (if any) are worth keeping. It seems probable that the team could consider trading away its captain in Gabriel Landeskog, and the case for doing so is strong. He potted only 18 goals and 15 assists this season, his 5th full campaign – at the exorbitant price of $5.5 MM (which will become $6 MM next season). The center has never developed into the offensive threat the franchise had hoped when he was selected 2nd overall in 2011. His point totals have dropped for the second season in a row. However, his Corsi For % was actually his career best at 52.8, and on a team that bled goals and chances, he performed admirably in his own end. Whether he is worth his deal is certainly a less pressing issue than stopping the bleeding. Unless an over-payment comes along the Avalanche would be wise to stick out at least another season with the still-promising left wing.
Speedy forward Matt Duchene is two years older, and fared only marginally better, with 18 goals and 23 assists. Duchene is not physically imposing a 5’11”, and he is more effective on the rush. His speed and versatility are his greatest assets. Duchene’s skating can burn defenders and his skating is among the tops in the league. When considering that the quick and fleet-footed Nathan MacKinnon is also on the team, it seems that Colorado might want to double down on the speed aspect of their negligible identity. Duchene would almost certainly draw more interest than Landeskog, as the forward did pot 30 goals just the previous season. Although the talk seems distant now, there was considerable conversation following the 2009 draft that the Islanders would have done better to draft Duchene than John Tavares. This is a player who can make a meaningful difference on the playmaking side of things, but saw a drastic drop off in play. Trading Duchene seems the most logical option, but his departure will only leave the center ice position more lackluster.
The Avalanche could toy with moving RFA center Mikhail Grigorenko, or RFA defenseman Patrick Wiercioch, but the returns after last season would be marginal at best. One can only assume that Sakicc attempted to unload forwards like Blake Comeau ($2.5 MM), and now UFA defenseman Fedor Tyutin to no avail. Thankfully the well-worn Jarome Iginla was shipped off to Los Angeles and there are indeed older players coming off the books. The 35 year-old Rene Bourque and 32 year-old John Mitchell will both be UFAs and will have difficulty finding work next season in the league.
Ultimately, the problem for the Avalanche wasn’t that their stars didn’t produce, although that certainly didn’t help their goal totals. Their team was filled with washed-up veterans and outside of the big 3 on offense there was really no threat to score. On the backend, once Erik Johnson went down, the rest of the defense was not nearly good enough to keep up. Tyson Barrie is the only player who should feel remotely safe, and the young RFA Nikita Zadorov is likely to hang around. Francois Beauchemin is not the defender he was even two seasons ago, and if he could somehow be traded it would help performance substantially.
Trading away the #4 selection is usually an unthinkable notion with a team at this stage of a rebuild, but if they can move it for substantial help on defense or on the wing, it should be considered. Especially considering how mediocre this draft class is, it might turn out to be a prudent maneuver. One of Landeskog or Duchene seems likely to depart, but without a king’s ransom coming back, it’s not likely to alter long-term prospects for the franchise. Colorado simply needs to draft better, develop better, and find a coach with the structure that a young, struggling squad will need. If they could make a serious pitch to Karl Alzner this off-season, or perhaps even Thomas Vanek on the wing, they would be in a better position to compete on a nightly basis. Their offensive stars are unlikely to be quite as dreadful in points production yet again. Perhaps the most positive aspect of the upcoming season will be the infusion of youth from the minor leagues, and the ditching of dead weight up and down the lineup. Sakic will need to provide stability for the franchise and perhaps even display some patience rather than dumping a slumping offensive talent for a lackluster package. Although fans may wish for change at any cost, ditching their core players for scraps is not likely the best way forward. Whatever course Colorado decides to take, fans around the league will be watching with interest this summer.
Evening Snapshots: Julien, Compher, Thornton
Fresh off of a clinch of a playoff spot, the Montreal Gazette’s Stu Cowan explains why Canadiens fans should be toasting the new bench boss who guided the team to the postseason with a steady hand. Claude Julien was hired immediately following the Habs’ firing of Michel Therrien, and with Julien in charge, Montreal experienced a surge that carried them into the playoffs. Cowan writes that the Canadiens are 13-5-1 since Julien took over and following his first practice with the team, Julien said this:
“Guys had to go on the ice today feeling good about themselves. I made sure that happened. Guys want hope. Guys want excitement. Guys want positive messages. It’s easy for a new coach coming in to give those positive messages. I wanted them to know how good I think the team is. We’re in first place, OK? There’s no need to panic, but there’s a need to fix.”
With the team for at least five seasons, and for the job he’s already done in his first few months on the job with the Canadiens (again), Cowan believes the coach deserves to be the toast of Montreal.
In other NHL news:
- The Avalanche may have had a tough year, but there are still silver linings. One of those come in the form of center J.T. Compher, who Denver Post writer Terry Frei reports has been a welcome addition after general manager Joe Sakic called up the kids. Compher, a University of Michigan product, has three goals in 16 games and has centered a line with Gabriel Landeskog, and Matt Duchene. For Compher, it’s about learning “consistency” after being called up following the Avs’ trade of Jarome Iginla, and also finishing the season strong. With the Avalanche looking to win the draft lottery and build upon its young core, Compher figures to be an essential building block in what needs to be an efficient and swift rebuild after such a crushing season.
- The Sun-Sentinel’s Craig Davis writes that while Shawn Thornton is known for his tough guy persona on the ice, it’s his “nice guy” persona off the ice that earned him a Bill Masterson Trophy nomination for the Florida Panthers. Thornton’s self-named foundation works to raise research funds in the fight against Parkinson’s and cancer. In addition to doing community outreach, Thornton also holds an annual charity golf outing. Though he made headlines recently for his furious quotes regarding Alexei Emelin, Davis highlights the side of hockey where the compassionate side of hockey players take precedence.
Will The 2017 Draft Class Be Better Than People Think?
FanRag Sports’ Hannah Stuart pens an article wondering if the 2017 NHL Draft class is actually not as bad as many think it will be. Coming off two drafts with all-world talents–Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in 2015 and Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016–anything less of that type of talent would be considered “worse” by definition. Clouding judgement has been the lack of what many analysts believe to be at least one generational player, and a muddled class after the first seven-eight players in most mock drafts. But is it a fair assessment?
Stuart cites ESPN’s Corey Pronman, who put together his ranking of the prospects and even wrote in his opening paragraph that its one of the weakest drafts in the cap era. He goes as far as to say it’s in the same category of the 2011 and 2012 drafts, which in his opinion, didn’t yield much in the way of top tier talent. Pronman lists Halifax’s Nico Hischier as his top prospect, with Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick second and Mississauga’s Owen Tippett third. Pronman does write that it’s essentially a toss-up as to who can be the #1 overall pick in the draft–Hischier or Patrick, and that whoever is taken first will be a benefit to his new team.
Looking at the two drafts that Pronman mentioned, the 2011 did feature a slew of players chosen in the top 10 who have been productive in the NHL. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went first overall, and while he hasn’t produced in the way that Matthews or McDavid have, many analysts (and fans) blame his development by the Oilers as a culprit for his stunted growth. Other notables in the 2011 draft–by draft order–are Gabriel Landeskog (#2), Jonathan Huberdeau (#3), Adam Larsson (#4), Ryan Strome (#5), Mika Zibanejad (#6), Mark Scheifele (#7) Sean Couturier (#8), Dougie Hamilton (#9), and Jonas Brodin (#10). There are a number of strong players in the ten, and while viewed as a “weaker” draft, it at least paid dividends for those teams that drafted them–or acquired them later via trade.
It thins out from there, but there were certainly notables later in the first round or later in the draft. Brandon Saad was taken in the second round by the Blackhawks and he was clutch for Chicago until they were forced to deal him away due to cap issues.
2012’s draft was somewhat weaker one-through-ten, but saw some return in the middle of the first round, namely with Filip Forsberg being taken 11th by the Capitals. Nail Yakupov was taken first by the Oilers, and he certainly hasn’t been the players the Oilers envisioned–but again, that may go back to development questions. Hampus Lindholm (#6) and Jacob Trouba (#9) are the headliners of a defensive heavy top ten. But a look through the rounds and it’s pretty telling that the 2012 edition was not only weaker than 2011, but possibly one of the weakest in the salary cap era.
Stuart makes an extremely important point about drafting: it’s a crapshoot.
A player can make a bad first impression or be a weak skater and be completely written off by certain scouts. However, maybe that player has an excellent hockey IQ, and a team recognizes that and drafts them in a later round. If the team works with them to fix the deficiencies in their skating, there’s every chance they could develop into an effective NHLer. On the other hand, let’s take what we’ll call the Oilers model. A team might consistently draft high, taking players who show elite skill and throwing those players into the NHL before they’re ready rather than taking time to develop weaknesses in their game.
Stuart continues to argue that since the drumbeat has been steady in saying this draft class will be weak, it’s been all but believed by those on the internet. But as she points out, it isn’t so much the drafting as much as it is the development and scouting staff that every team employs.
Trade Deadline Summary: Winners & Losers Of The Central Division
The NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while it wasn’t the most exciting deadline day in recent memory, there were quite a few notable moves. Here are the winners and losers of the “wild” Central Division:
Winners
Chicago Blackhawks:
- Acquired Tomas Jurco from Detroit Red Wings for 2017 third-round pick
- Acquired Johnny Oduya from Dallas Stars for conditional 2018 fourth-round pick and Mark McNeill
Of course the Blackhawks are winners on deadline day. Did you expect any less? Although they didn’t make any major moves, Chicago brought in two players via trade that can help them immediately. Oduya, a former Blackhawk, is still familiar with the system and has played with many of the current players. Oduya should be able to step in right away, play major minutes, and form a shutdown pair with Niklas Hjalmarsson (when he’s healthy). Just like the good ‘ol days. Meanwhile, like nearly any forward, Jurco has a skill set that will fit in well with Chicago’s star forwards and for just the cost of a third-rounder, could represent a long-term fit with the Blackhawks.
Dallas Stars:
- Acquired conditional 2017 second-round pick from Anaheim Ducks for Patrick Eaves
- Acquired 2017 fourth-round pick and Greg Pateryn from Montreal Canadiens for Jordie Benn
- Acquired conditional 2018 fourth-round pick and Mark McNeill from Chicago Blackhawks for Johnny Oduya
- Acquired Dillon Heatherington from Columbus Blue Jackets for Lauri Korpikoski
The Stars are a tough team to place at the 2017 deadline. They are in the midst of an unforeseen epic collapse of a season and have done well to trade their impending free agents. If Patrick Sharp, Ales Hemsky, and Adam Cracknell weren’t all hurt, Dallas would be a deadline loser for not moving them. As it stands, they did hold on to Jiri Hudler, but traded their three other healthy upcoming UFAs. Eaves earned them great value in return and Korpikoski, a late off-season addition, nets a promising young defenseman in Heatherington. Even McNeill and a fourth-rounder for Oduya is a pretty good deal. So for those three moves anyway, GM Jim Nill did well. With that said, the Benn trade was ill-timed and doesn’t make your team better. Benn still had term on his contract and was the team’s best defensive defenseman and, of course, captain Jamie Benn‘s older brother. Dallas will likely regret that move. The Stars are teetering on the edge of winner and loser, but they’ve been through enough this season, so we’ll call them winners.
Deadline Primer: Carolina Hurricanes
With the trade deadline now just a week away, we continue to take a closer look at each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?
If the Carolina Hurricanes as deadline sellers wasn’t a foregone conclusion before, it is now after today’s trade of Ron Hainsey to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Although Hainsey, who will finally get to play in the first postseason game of his 14-year NHL career, was a candidate to be traded regardless, the move is even less surprising given Carolina’s recent performance. After shocking many who believed they could be one of the worst teams in the NHL this season with a strong first half, the wheels have fallen off in Carolina since the calendar flipped to 2017. The Hurricanes are just 8-11-1 in the new year and haven’t had a regulation win since February 3rd. Facing an uphill battle as it was in the powerhouse Metropolitan Division, it didn’t help that Carolina was unable to get consistent play and fell from a playoff spot into the basement of the Eastern Conference in short order.
The ‘Canes are loaded with talented young defensemen and some great young depth up front as well. They also hold a king’s ransom in draft picks and have an inordinate amount of cap space going into next season. There’s good reason behind the rumors connecting them to big-ticket trade bait like the Colorado Avalanche’s Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. However, deals of that magnitude typically occur in the off-season. Don’t expect any different this year. The Hainsey trade either signals the beginning of a small-scale fire sale or potentially could be the only move for the Carolina at the deadline.
Record
24–24–8, last in the Metropolitan Division/Eastern Conference
Deadline Status
Seller
Deadline Cap Space
Current Cap Space: $63,619,668
Deadline Cap Space: $71,572,127
46/50 contracts, via CapFriendly
Draft Picks
2017: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, NYR 2nd, PIT 2nd, CAR 3rd, conditional NJ 3rd, CAR 4th, BOS 5th, CAR 6th, CAR 7th
2018: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, CAR 3rd, CAR 4th, CAR 5th, CAR 6th, CAR 7th
Trade Chips
Carolina’s best trade chip at the deadline was Ron Hainsey and GM Ron Francis did a great job in getting a strong return for the defenseman in a second-round pick and a prospect. Hurricanes fans should be happy about that haul, because that may be all they get. The reason that the Hainsey trade may be the only move that the ‘Canes make at the deadline is because they lack a wealth of attractive veterans on expiring contracts. Among their impending free agents are Viktor Stalberg, Jay McClement, and Matt Tennyson and it’s doubtful that any of that trio have drawn much interest around the league. Stalberg and McClement have just 17 points combined despite playing in nearly every game and Tennyson is hardly even an NHL-caliber player. The one outlier is Derek Ryan. Seemingly out of nowhere, Ryan has finally developed into an NHL regular in Carolina at the age of 30 and would cost almost nothing against the cap with a salary of just $600K (about a $125K pro-rated cap hit on March 1st). For cap-strapped contenders facing difficulties adding players, Ryan could be very attractive as a bottom-six depth forward. He has eight goals and ten assists in 42 games and has shown some versatility within the lineup. However, are the Hurricanes willing to let their diamond in the rough go that easily? Unless Ron Francis is given a fair-value offer, he may look to bring back Ryan for next season instead as a nice complementary player.
Players To Watch
F Derek Ryan, F Viktor Stalberg, F Jay McClement, D Matt Tennyson, F Andrej Nestrasil
Team Needs
1) Franchise Forward – The rebuild in Carolina has been much faster and more successful than anyone could have expected and the organization has put together a solid young core of forwards and defensemen. The list of impact starters age 24 or younger is unreal: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin and more. That doesn’t even include top prospects on the blue line like Jake Bean, Haydn Fleury, and Roland McKeown, 2016 first-round forward Julien Gauthier, and a near-guaranteed top-five pick this June. It’s an embarrassment of riches in the youth department in Raleigh, but if the ‘Canes want to climb the ranks of the Metropolitan, they need to move some young pieces to add a top forward. Not just a nice top-six player either; a star scorer. Colorado’s Duchene or Landeskog have specifically been mentioned, while Jordan Eberle, James van Riemsdyk, or Evander Kane, all reportedly available depending on who you ask and when, might be a nice addition to the “Redvolution” as well. With that said, a mega-deal like this seems very unlikely to form in the next week and could instead happen this summer.
2) Depth Defenseman – So what of the deadline? Don’t be surprised to see the Hurricanes sneak another defenseman on to the roster as part of any other moves they make. As discussed earlier this month, Carolina is in an Expansion Draft predicament with their blue liners, most of whom are so young that they don’t qualify for exposure. As of now, only the All-Star Faulk would fill the quota, and that certainly won’t be happening. The simplest move for Francis is to re-sign Tennyson or Klas Dahlbeck and simply expose one of them, but if Tennyson is traded or the team doesn’t want to keep either player around, a small trade to bring in a qualifying veteran would make sense.
Declining Greatness: The Case For Jarome Iginla
A few weeks ago Zach Leach profiled one of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history, Jarome Iginla. He started the piece by saying that Iginla was “a legend with very bad luck” and though he was talking about Iginla’s career, and how close (but yet so far) he has come on several occasions to being in the right place at the right time, he could have easily meant something else that teams should consider when looking at the 618-goal man this trade deadline.
No, it’s not his age—the fact that he’ll turn 40 this July is something everyone should be aware of, but not what this piece will be about. Not his cap hit either; the $5.33MM number is a tough pill to swallow for sure, but at least it expires at the end of the year. It’s his shooting percentage. Sure, Iginla might be a step slower than he has been in the past, and perhaps this legend is ready to ride off into the sunset. It’s just that there may be something left in the tank. 
First of all, he’s playing on Colorado which has been a deathtrap for offensive players all season. Whether it’s the coaching of Jared Bednar, the horrible possession metrics almost everyone has put up, or some toxic attitude leaking down from the front office, nearly everyone has been underperforming. Matt Duchene is on a 52 point pace, which would be the lowest he’s recorded for a season where he played more than 70 games. Gabriel Landeskog may not crack 40, well below his career average. Even Nathan MacKinnon, who is currently leading the team in scoring doesn’t look like he’ll improve much on his 52 point effort from a year ago, in which he played only 72 games.
Iginla is right there along with them, scoring just 16 points in 58 games. But what do you expect from a guy who has lined up beside John Mitchell and Blake Comeau for most of the season, a duo that has a combined point total of 15. He’s also been given the least amount of icetime of his career, playing just 14:45 per night. Perhaps this is just because he’s no good anymore, but there may be a silver lining.
Yes, that’s the shooting percentage which currently sits at 6.1%, less than half of his career rate. He’s still generating shots, with 114 on the year but just nothing is going in for him. He’s on pace to almost match the shot total from each of the last two years, when he had 29 and 22 goals respectively, and doing it with much worse linemates. No, he’ll never be a defensive presence that drives possession, but he can be a goal scoring threat even at his advanced age. If he sat at his career shooting percentage we’d be talking about a 15-goal scorer instead, despite Mitchell and Comeau still being alongside him.
Playoff experience can’t exactly be quantified, but anecdotally the game slows down in the postseason. When the whistles are put away, a bit more obstruction takes place and physical goal scoring threats are extremely important. Iginla has scored 37 playoff goals in just 81 games, a better per-game pace than Sidney Crosby. It’s not that he’ll continue to be a legendary goal scoring threat, just that he may still be a fine secondary option for a team looking for some depth on the wing. He won’t cost much, and he might just get that one last chance at a Stanley Cup.
Deadline Primer: Colorado Avalanche
With the trade deadline now just a week away, we continue to take a closer look at each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?
The Colorado Avalanche are a mess. Their season began with a coach walking out on them just two months before the start of the season, and has gone downhill from there. Now with just 35 points through 58 games they are a lock for last place in the NHL and are about to pull the trigger on the latest rebuild.
Even though much of their team is still young enough to be considered developing, GM Joe Sakic has said that there are very few untouchables. It’s time for a reset in Mile High, and the deadline looks to be the starting point.
Record
16-39-3, 7th in Central Division
Deadline Status
Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$3.38MM – full-season cap hit, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly.
Draft Picks
2017: COL 1st, COL 2nd, COL 4th, NYR 4th, COL 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th
2018: COL 1st, COL 2nd, COL 3rd, COL 4th, COL 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th
Trade Chips
The Avalanche are one of just a few sellers (perhaps just two) that have appeared so far, and it may benefit them greatly. Multiple teams have already been in contact on Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog, and the pair of young forwards look like some of the biggest fishes on the market this week. But it doesn’t end there for the bottom-dwelling Avs. 
Jarome Iginla is almost certain to be dealt, as he’s expressed his want to go somewhere to try and win a Stanley Cup. While he doesn’t provide the same type of offense he once did—Iginla only has seven goals and 16 points this season—many teams might think that is just a symptom of the team around him. Indeed, he is just a year removed from scoring 22 goals for the Avalanche in 2015-16. When you’ve scored 618 goals in the NHL, plus another 37 in the playoffs a team is going to want you for the experience you bring. Look for Iginla to be dealt on the deadline itself for a draft pick.
The team also has Rene Bourque and Patrick Wiercioch drawing calls, with both likely costing very little at the deadline. Mikhail Grigorenko and Carl Soderberg are interesting options up front, but one may be too young to deal and the other too expensive. It’s all on the table for Sakic, who listed just Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Tyson Jost as the untouchables on his squad.
If Sakic really wants to blow it up, perhaps he’ll even consider the idea of trading Tyson Barrie, the puck moving defenseman that may have been at the core of the Roy departure. The Avalanche signed him to a four-year deal this summer, but has seen his defensive play deteriorate even further.
Five Players To Watch: C Matt Duchene, LW Gabriel Landeskog, RW Jarome Iginla, D Patrick Wiercioch, F Carl Soderberg
Team Needs
1) Young Defensemen – The Avalanche lost Nikita Zadorov for the season recently, but his development into an NHL defender has brightened up what has been a nightmare season. The team will be looking for more players like him to build around and finally fix their defensive problems. Francois Beauchemin and Fedor Tyutin won’t be around when this team is ready to contend again, and Erik Johnson will likely be a shell of himself—he’s signed through the 2022-23 season, but is about to turn 29 and surely won’t continue at his level into his mid-thirties.
2) Draft Picks – The team needs to restock its cupboards and though this draft is considered to have a weak top-end, there is a lot of talent throughout the first round especially at the center position. The Avalanche have set themselves up to be almost guaranteed a shot at one of Nolan Patrick, Nico Hischier or Gabriel Vilardi, but could also add depth with some first round picks if they deal off their big assets.
3) Prospects – The other option is just to trade for already drafted prospects and hope they develop the way is expected. Sakic has reportedly asked for each of these three things in a trade for Duchene, essentially hedging his bets across all three avenues. For a team that was just out of the playoffs the last couple of seasons, it doesn’t have to be a decade long rebuild. A quick turnaround isn’t guaranteed, but with a legitimate #1 center in MacKinnon and solid goaltending, a few prospects making a big jump could push them back into a playoff race as soon as 2018-19.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Can The Colorado Avalanche Be Fixed?
Patrick Roy quit unexpectedly. The team has just 35 points. And Nikita Zadorov is out for the year after getting hurt in practice. The 2016-17 season has been an unmitigated disaster for the Avalanche and as the season slips away, there has to be a new blueprint for a once proud organization that once won two Stanley Cups in six seasons. Though that feels like a lifetime ago, hope isn’t all lost as the Avs have several pieces in place to build around. The real problem is what route is best when it comes to rebuilding a team in shambles?
The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers indicates that the Avs are in full sell mode. That’s pretty obvious when Executive Vice President of Hockey Operations/General Manager Joe Sakic has been honest in his assessment of making players available. It’s been widely reported that the asking price is high for anyone the Avs are willing to trade, whether it be Matt Duchene, or Gabriel Landeskog. Chambers includes Jarome Iginla, Fedor Tyutin, John Mitchell, Andreas Martinsen Rene Bourque, and Cody Goloubef as pieces to trade off since they’re all set to be unrestricted free agents.
Though they could fetch a number of draft picks and prospects, especially if Landeskog or Duchene are moved, it might be something else the Avs should look at. Especially since the return on those trades are absolutely crucial.
I asked about Joe Sakic’s role in all of this back in December, and nearly 73% of our readers thought he should be shown the door. But is it that easy? Would firing Sakic really change a team in turmoil? If anything, perhaps Sakic goes out and instead of green lighting someone from the “glory days” when he played, grabs a knowledgeable former general manager or up and coming assistant that could help sort out the mess. Outside of opinion pieces, there hasn’t been anything to suggest that Sakic is feeling heat. As one of the leaders of the organization, hiring another pair of eyes to help, whether it be in a scouting or management capacity, would help Sakic and the organization most. Especially if there is no urgency from ownership when it comes to firing him.
Aside from the 2013-14 season, the Avalanche haven’t seen a lot of success since getting bounced during the 2010 playoffs. Since then, they’ve only returned once, and that one time was with Sakic in charge. Even if he begins selling off assets to rebuild, it takes keen eyes to pull of a successful rebuild. They take time, patience, and a lot of smarts. Look at Toronto.
Fixing the Avalanche begins with ownership taking a good hard look at what task is in front of them. Keeping Sakic works if he’s surrounded with more experience. Otherwise, it’s nothing more than an organization living in the past while flailing in the present, and inevitably, the future.
Snapshots: Scouts, Blackhawks, Yakupov
With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, but not many teams finding themselves out of the playoff race a team like Colorado is becoming the scouting capital for the NHL. Tonight as they take on the Buffalo Sabres in a rare trip to the North East, teams have come out in full force to watch players like Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. Terry Frei of the Denver Post tweeted out the list of scouts in attendance, and it includes 24 names including three from the Maple Leafs and two each from Montreal, Los Angeles, Columbus, Winnipeg and Calgary.
The Maple Leafs in particular have a strong contingent, sending assistant GM Kyle Dubas down in person. The Maple Leafs are being tight-lipped on the status of Mitch Marner after leaving the game last night, though there have been reports of the amount of cap space the team has opened up prior to the deadline. Don’t forget that Buffalo has struggled this year as well, and have multiple players (like Evander Kane) that would be interesting to teams around the league.
- The Chicago Blackhawks have gotten some reinforcements today, bringing Nick Schmaltz and Tanner Kero up from the Rockford IceHogs of the AHL according to Tracey Myers of CSN Chicago. The Hawks have been off since February 11th on their mandatory bye-week, but get back into the swing of things with three games in four nights (and four in six) starting Saturday.
- Former first-overall pick Nail Yakupov is back in the St. Louis Blues lineup tonight for the first time in nearly two weeks. With a career almost completely off the rails it will be interesting to see what happens to him at the deadline, and whether a team makes a play for his upside. Still just 23-years old, Yakupov only has six points in 31 games this season and is barely playing over 10 minutes a night whenever he does crack the lineup. He’s arbitration eligible this offseason, and is a clear candidate to not even be tendered a qualifying offer. His $2.5MM salary is currently way more than he is producing, and the QO would need to be the same.