PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Dylan Larkin’s trade request from Detroit, a discussion about the implementation of the salary cap and how it could relate to MLB’s CBA talks, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in one of our next two columns.

Johnny Z: Where does Larkin go and will his leaving spark a retool with more Detroit vets being traded. I don’t see Kane coming back either, now.

GBear: Simply, who makes the deal for Larkin?

Let’s jump right in with the big news of the week with the news of Dylan Larkin’s trade request getting leaked out.  By all accounts, this wasn’t from his agency and we know it wasn’t the Red Wings who put this out there as that’s the last thing they’d have wanted.  I note this as it’s quite possible that the request was made a little while ago and just got out now.

GM Steve Yzerman is known for his patience (sometimes to a fault) and also for not having his hand forced into doing things.  He had Jonathan Drouin in Tampa Bay who wanted out.  It took quite a while before that actually happened.  The scenario that no one is talking about is that Yzerman doesn’t budge and keeps Larkin in the fold.  This isn’t just a 1% chance thing; I think this is a legitimate option on the table here.

Look at how Detroit operated at the trade deadline, adding Justin Faulk and shoring up their veteran depth with an eye on making the playoffs.  That’s not the doings of a manager who is thinking about a retool.  He wants to win now and that’s much easier to do with Larkin on the roster than off of it.  Would it be a difficult situation?  Sure.  Might they have to take away the captaincy?  Perhaps.  But I suspect Yzerman would much rather do that than have his hand forced into a trade.

Now, having said that, the demand for impact centers is so high that Yzerman should be able to generate a substantial trade return for Larkin’s services.  The only way that doesn’t happen is if Larkin provides a very small list of teams that he’d waive his no-trade clause for.  And if that happens, Yzerman will tell him to expand the list or be ready to report for training camp in Detroit in September.

The types of offers that Yzerman receives over the next three-plus weeks will ultimately dictate if they stay the course or take a short-term step back.  I agree with the use of the word retool here and not rebuild as they’re not looking to start all over again.  Is there another disgruntled high-impact top liner out there looking for a change of scenery that forms the basis of a swap?  If so, they’re probably staying the course in terms of trying to make the playoffs.  If there’s an offer that features a quality veteran and some ready (or close-to-ready) youngsters, they’re again probably staying the course with the hopes of nabbing a free agent or making another trade to bridge the gap.  But if it’s more of a futures-based return, then the step back to try to take two steps forward later approach makes more sense.

As for where he goes, I’ll say Minnesota.  There’s a connection with GM Bill Guerin and USA Hockey.  Guerin, meanwhile, is under pressure to secure that elusive impact center to help his team try to take the next step forward in a crowded Central Division.  He’d likely be hoping that securing Larkin would make a contract extension for Quinn Hughes look more palatable for the defender as well.  There’s a lot of motivation to get things done.  I suspect a deal would be in the second category of the three I mentioned (a quality veteran plus some near-ready or ready youngsters like Danila Yurov, for example) so Detroit’s offseason approach will be to try to add to the roster, not subtract more veterans.

lgr34561: Will Larkin requesting a trade affect the Rangers on trading Vincent Trocheck and trying to maximize on a deal in a negative way?

I’d say no but it certainly doesn’t help either.  It’s a supply-and-demand thing and generally, more supply isn’t good.  But with the supply of impact centers being limited to only a handful of players and the number of potential suitors representing more than half the league, the demand for Trocheck’s services is still going to be really high.  Larkin being there isn’t going to make the quality of the offers drop.

But where it might hurt is that it takes GM Chris Drury out of the control seat on the market.  Maybe Nico Hischier becomes available but until contract talks reach a breaking point, he’s not in play.  Maybe Robert Thomas is still in play but that seems unlikely.  Without them, Trocheck was the top center available until this got out.  Now, if Yzerman is going to go ahead and make a trade, Larkin becomes the prized pickup, the one that teams will prioritize first.

Teams aren’t going to want to make their best offer for Trocheck in case those pieces are needed for a Larkin trade.  Eventually, if a deal gets done, there will be one less suitor for Trocheck but one less player available, potentially upping the desperation level from other general managers.  But they’re no longer necessarily in control of the timing.  If Drury wanted this done by the draft, for example, that might not happen if Larkin’s situation drags out.  And when you no longer control the timing, it has the potential to affect the rest of the offseason planning as one move typically leads to another.  If that first move is delayed, it could mess up the rest of the planning.

To be clear, this sounds more doom-and-gloom than it probably should be.  At the end of the day, the Rangers were poised to get a significant return for Trocheck before the Larkin news.  I still think they’re going to get one after this news.  From that standpoint, I wouldn’t worry.  But the timing of such a move gets a little trickier now and that’s where this news could wreak some havoc.

highflyballintorightfield: For a mailbag or even a separate post…how did the NHL handle the transition to a hard salary cap in 2005 (compliance buyouts, etc.)? This will be a helpful reference for the baseball side as commenters there argue about the upcoming MLB CBA negotiations.

Spending in the NHL wasn’t anywhere as prolific then as it is in MLB now so it’s not necessarily a great comparison.  A few teams had to trim some salaries but while there were compliance buyouts that were exempt from the cap, only 13 were utilized league-wide.  Everyone else was able to trade their way back into compliance or were already under the then-$39MM cap.  By comparison, when the 2012-13 lockout prevented the cap ceiling from reaching its projected amount, there was another round of compliance buyouts (over two seasons) where 28 were utilized.

Having said that, there are some other elements that came in with the NHL cap that I’d be intrigued to see if MLB puts in its offers as we settle in for what sure feels like a long battle.

One of those is the maximum salary.  It’s set at 20% in the NHL and when the cap first came in, the $7.8MM maximum was hit a couple of times.  Going off of MLB’s $245MM initial offer, 20% of that is $49MM which is well below what Juan Soto makes, for example.  Obviously, their Upper Limit is going to go higher in subsequent offers and there’s no guarantee they try to put in a maximum salary (or tie it at 20%) but that’s something to keep an eye on.  I’m also a little intrigued to see if anything happens with salary deferrals, something that was allowed when the cap came in but was actually outlawed this summer as part of the latest CBA agreement.

Another big element that could help the transition to a hard cap in MLB should one get done is the treatment of bonuses.  One of the things that’s allowed for cap creativity is the bonus cushion.  Only the base AAV of a contract is guaranteed to count against the books for any given season.  If bonuses are achieved on a contract, they apply against the current-year books but if not, they roll over and are charged against the following season.

I’ll use Max Scherzer’s contract with the Blue Jays as an example.  He gets a $3MM base salary with $10MM of incentives, plus $1MM at 65 innings pitched with $1MM extra every 10 innings after that until 155 innings.  So, with the way the NHL structures their cap, only $3MM is guaranteed to count against the cap this season.  If Toronto has additional cap space after the season, any reached bonuses count until they hit the ceiling, then the rest roll over to 2027.  Let’s say Scherzer pitches 100 innings, giving him $4MM in earned bonuses.  Toronto finishes $1.5MM under the hypothetical cap.  $1.5MM of his bonuses would count against the 2026 cap and the other $2.5MM would come off their 2027 spending limit.

To get around teams abusing this, there are restrictions on who can have performance bonuses in their contracts.  For the NHL, players on entry-level deals get them, as do players over 35 if they sign one-year agreements (multi-year pacts are ineligible).  There is also a provision for 400-game players who spent 100 days or more on injured reserve who aren’t 35 to receive a one-year deal with incentives.  For MLB players, I imagine it’d be a little more restrictive, something like 10-year veterans or 35-plus players (I know there’s not always a difference between the two) being eligible.

The NHL’s salary cap also brought on the concept of Long-Term Injured Reserve, or LTIR.  For players out long-term, the general concept of LTIR allows teams to exceed the cap by up to the amount of the player’s salary less any existing cap room.  For example, a player making $4MM lands on LTIR on a team that has $1MM in cap space.  They can then exceed the cap by the difference of $3MM.  If the injured player returns, the team then has to get back into cap compliance.  This has long been a contentious subject with loopholes that an 18-wheeler could drive through, leading to some pretty significant controversies and rule changes.  But the concept of that would likely appear, giving some teams near the cap ceiling some potential flexibility if injuries arise.

aka.nda: I wanted to ask about the Wild’s goaltending situation when it appeared Gustavsson and Wallstedt were both healthy because Hlavaj looked very good in the Olympics and the Wild were keen on a few costly moves. I was going to ask what you think Gustavsson would fetch, but I guess now I’m wondering if they’re going to “show their hand” more with Hlavaj by needing someone to pair with Wallstedt, and if you think they’ll get less of a return because other GMs will become more acutely aware that Guerin is trying to sell from a surplus rather than negotiate from a more “even” pool? Or am I just way overvaluing Hlavaj based on my Olympic viewing, or as some might suggest, under-estimating the stupidity of 50+% of the league’s GMs?

I’ll answer the last bit first.  You’re overvaluing Samuel Hlavaj.  He does well when he plays for Slovakia internationally but it has failed to translate to success in the pros.  My understanding is that he wants a change of scenery and that Minnesota tried to give it to him at the trade deadline but trade interest was basically non-existent.  A pending RFA, I suspect he’s hoping for a non-tender and that if Minnesota qualifies him, he’ll probably go back overseas.  If he gets non-tendered, he’ll hope to land in another organization but still might not be valued more than as a fourth option.

Filip Gustavsson’s injury complicates things for the Wild as he or Jesper Wallstedt could have plausibly been trade candidates this summer.  Now, it’d be hard to part with one unless Gustavsson’s post-surgery rehab is going really well.  So, for this summer, I suspect their goalie plan will be to add a James Reimer-type of veteran, one who could start in the NHL if Gustavsson isn’t ready to start the year, could stay as a serviceable enough backup if one of the two incumbents are traded, or serve as a viable third-string option in the minors.  But I’d be very surprised if Hlavaj is in their plans.

hasamadsnarl666: So Kent Hughes decides to attack the Leafs, hmm what has his teams ever won?? He hasn’t won anything; it’s been five years before his team made the ECF, but didn’t show up in ECF but he has something to say? Keep in mind that the East had a shift; NY was out, Islanders were out, Leafs out, Buffalo in. Not a year to attack other teams. Didn’t they “own” the Canes in the regular season??

For those who didn’t see this, during his end-of-playoffs presser, Montreal’s GM awkwardly referenced Toronto’s top players not necessarily being their top players in the playoffs in the past.  It came as a random add-on to a comment about the marketability of the Montreal market, a high-pressure one like Toronto.  Montreal’s top players weren’t their best in the playoffs either but the narrative around them feels different than it did when Toronto’s top players underperformed.  That happens when one team is just starting out while the Maple Leafs kept stalling out early; they haven’t been to a Conference Final since 2002 in large part due to their top players underachieving.  I think he was maybe going for something about the narrative being more forgiving and that patience is needed but yeah, it was a little odd.

Part of me wonders if he just saw an opportunity to take a shot at Toronto given the now-leaked details of the failed trade at the deadline that would have seen Matthew Knies in Montreal had then-GM Brad Treliving filed the paperwork on time.  Or that president Keith Pelley randomly name-dropped (and butchered) Michael Hage’s name in one of his press conferences earlier.  But yes, this was clumsy at best and probably unnecessary altogether.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what a successful offseason for the Rangers could be, the impact of back-to-backs, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

Bill Blueshirt: The NYR has a long-standing interest in getting B. Tkachuk. Would a package of Cuylle, Schneider, their 1st rounder (#3 overall), and either Trocheck or Laba get it done?

When I first started reading the question, I thought ‘this is going to be a no’, especially with it being a package.  But I have to say, I think this would get it done on Ottawa’s part, even if they have no interest in moving Brady Tkachuk.  And this would assume that Vincent Trocheck wouldn’t have the Sens on his no-trade list; given that it seems as if he’s blocked trades to Western teams, there’s a chance of that happening.

Tkachuk has given no indication that he wouldn’t re-sign with the Senators, although that hasn’t stopped the speculation that he might do like his brother and give early notice that he won’t re-sign.  In that scenario, Ottawa would probably want a return that gets them some future help but also allows them to stay competitive now.  This would do that.

Trocheck, Tim Stutzle, Dylan Cozens, Shane Pinto, and Ridly Greig would be a solid center group and plausibly could allow Ottawa to move one to fill another hole.  William Cuylle could be a second-line power forward; he’s pretty much close to being one already.  Braden Schneider would help shore up the weak side of their back end.  And the fifth pick (after the lottery didn’t go New York’s way) would net them a strong future piece as well.  So, I think they’d do this.

I’m not sure it’s in New York’s best interest, however.  Are they a better team after this swap?  Yes, Tkachuk is the best player in it but the supporting cast takes a big hit and they lose most of their best trade chips.  Less depth, fewer trade options, and they’re two years away from a very expensive contract to keep him in the fold.  If the Rangers were one player away and had the depth of a few years ago, this would be defensible.  Given that they’re in a spot where they’re looking to do at least some sort of rebuild though, this isn’t the right time to go in big on a player.

lgr34561: What do you think an ideal offseason looks like for the Rangers and what are your expectations for them next season?

I have my doubts that the Rangers will do a full-blown rebuild so a successful offseason for them, in my books, would simply be sticking to the path they’re on.

For Trocheck, I think they have to move him this summer.  He’s going to be one of the top centers available, if not the best one (if you think Robert Thomas won’t be in play anymore).  The demand is extremely high with a lot of teams looking to buy.  Coming out of a Trocheck trade with at least two high-end futures pieces (a good first-round pick or prospect and a top-six prospect or potential impact blueliner) would be big as that could fill two of the foundational holes down the road.  The trade wouldn’t be two-for-one as money dictates there would probably be other pieces but those would be the core of the return.  I don’t think they want to move J.T. Miller so quickly and Mika Zibanejad doesn’t want to move so they’d still be in solid shape down the middle.

I’m skeptical that Alexis Lafreniere has another gear to get to.  He might be someone who just sits in that 50-60-point range and while that’s solid, I’d like to see Chris Drury explore options on that front.  This wouldn’t be a straight seller move but rather more of a one-for-one move with a similarly-aged player with lots of club control (or a long-term deal) doing the other way.  Basically, a swap to try to find someone who better fits Mike Sullivan’s system as I don’t see a coaching change happening again anytime soon, not with his contract.

Ideally, I’d say sign Schneider long-term and trade Will Borgen but Borgen’s contract might make it tough.  One of those two will be a bottom-pairing piece and the price tag doesn’t fit the role so if Borgen getting dealt for value isn’t an option, then I’d say move Schneider and capitalize on the demand for right-shot defensemen.  The return wouldn’t be as significant as Trocheck’s but I could see them landing one A-level asset.

Beyond that, if they can move a lower-end veteran (guys like Taylor Raddysh, Urho Vaakanainen, and the like) and open up more of a full-time slot for some of their near-ready prospects, that would be worth doing as well.  That’s a lot of selling for a team that I think isn’t necessarily quite that committed to moving out pieces but doing that would be a good summer in my books.

Red Wings: Wings need help. Robert Thomas could be the 1C and Larkin could slide down to 2C. What would it take to get him out of St. Louis?

Now that we’ve covered Trocheck, let’s look at the other prominent center who is no stranger to the rumor mill.  Adding Thomas would certainly help fill the top-six middleman slot that they’ve tried several times to fill and he and Dylan Larkin would be a solid one-two punch.

However, the asking price before the trade deadline was believed to be the equivalent of at least three top-15 assets.  One theoretically could have been Detroit’s first-round pick but St. Louis already has that from the Justin Faulk trade.  With it being too early to know where their 2027 pick could plausibly fall, I don’t think that could fill one of those slots, meaning we’re looking at three already-drafted pieces.

The Red Wings have several youngsters who technically fit the bill but some of those players have seen their stock drop as well.  For example, Marco Kasper was an eighth-overall pick but he doesn’t carry that high a value now.  That said, I could see him being one of the pieces.  (If not him, then Nate Danielson makes sense.)  For a winger, one of Michael Brandsegg-Nygard or 2025 first-round pick Carter Bear would fit the bill.  Does St. Louis want more of a playmaker or a scorer and are they looking for someone close to ready now or a few years away?  The answer to that dictates which one of those two would be in the offer.  I don’t see the Blues having a ton of interest in Axel Sandin Pellikka so the other spot would either need to be one of the forwards already listed or goaltender Sebastian Cossa.  (I’m not sure Trey Augustine carries top-15 value league-wide, as good a prospect as he is.)  Cossa and Joel Hofer would be an interesting tandem for the near and long-term future with some upside.

On top of that, Detroit would probably need to offset the money somewhat.  The good news is that there are some logical choices in J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp, veterans whose spots may be displaced by Thomas coming in anyway.

There are three questions I still have coming out of all of that.  If I’m Alex Steen, I’m not sure that’d be enough for me as, again, some of the shine has come off some of these high-drafted pieces.  The second is on Detroit’s end and it’s similar to the Tkachuk thing earlier, is this the right move for a team that keeps missing the playoffs to make?  (I can come around to yes here, however, unlike the Tkachuk scenario.)  The third is the biggest one: Would Thomas waive for the Red Wings?  There’s a sense that GM Steve Yzerman has tried to swing big but has either had players tell them they’re not interested in going there or aren’t willing to sign long term.  They only have to worry about the former here with Thomas signed through 2030-31 but there may be more appealing suitors for his services.

Duke II: While it may be common sense, is there any empirical data that confirms NHL players’ stats are worse in the second game of B-2-B games?

I’m going to try to answer this primarily from a team-based perspective.  Statistically speaking, teams have a lower points percentage on back-to-backs so, therefore, it can also be gleaned that individual player stats aren’t quite as good as otherwise, there wouldn’t be a gap in points percentage.  But the gap isn’t always as big as some might think.  Here are the numbers, courtesy of More Hockey Stats (they have the team records, I’ve converted them to average points per game):

2025-26: Overall Average Points Per Game: 1.12
Points Per Game In Back Half Of Back-To-Back: 1.07

2024-25: Overall Average Points Per Game: 1.10
Points Per Game In Back Half Of Back-To-Back: 0.93

2023-24: Overall Average Points Per Game: 1.10
Points Per Game In Back Half Of Back-To-Back: 1.03

2022-23: Overall Average Points Per Game: 1.12
Points Per Game In Back Half Of Back-To-Back: 0.99

Now, you asked for the players.  That’s a little harder to track down on an everything-in-one-place level but ESPN’s player profiles have this snuck in near the bottom.  For example, here’s the profile for Minnesota’s Matt Boldy.  He had 10 points in the second half of 12 back-to-backs this season, a 0.83 point-per-game average compared to 1.12 points per game for the full season.  In 2024-25, he had a 0.33 point-per-game average in the second half of back-to-backs against a 0.89 full-season average.  It wasn’t as pronounced in 2023-24 at a .786 point-per-game average in the back half of a back-to-back against a 0.92 mark for the season.

This is just one example but I suspect, given the reduced teams’ success in the back half of a back-to-back, that more players will follow Boldy and have a reduced output in those situations.  If there are certain players you’re intrigued about specifically, the ESPN profiles can give you the breakdown you’re looking for.

Jolly Roger: Is there anything in the CBA regulating advertising on players’ helmets? Does every team make their own deal for such advertising? Do players receive a cut and can they opt out, for example if they disagree with the advertiser policies, or just don’t want to be a skating billboard?

Advertising isn’t a CBA element beyond that advertising revenue is part of Hockey Related Revenue, or HRR.  HRR is what helps shape the salary cap with the players and owners getting 50% chunks of that revenue.  That’s the players’ cut of it, so to speak.  They are not able to opt out, nor can they solicit their own deal to stick a patch on a jersey or helmet.

Every team can make their own agreements for the advertising.  Some have had sponsor changes already within the first few years.  All 32 teams have at least one helmet agreement in place while many have separate agreements for home and away.  Only 28 teams have jersey sponsorships for this season (soon to be 29 with the Sabres announcing Friday that they have a deal in place for next year) while, again, some have home and away sponsors as well.

Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry-Imagn Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago’s long-term goalie situation, the Presidents’ Trophy ‘curse’, and more.  (It was also set to feature a discussion on Dylan Holloway’s next contract with a six-year, $7.75MM AAV prediction but the Blues got ahead of that one.)  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we’ll have one more mailbag from this latest call for questions next weekend.

Cla23: Can the Jets actually find a 2C in free agency? Can Brad Lambert and Isak Rosen be second-line players with Perfetti?

By the literal wording of your question, yes, the Jets can find a player who could center their second line in free agency.  I’m just not sure that player will be second-line-caliber, however.

Back in March, our Ethan Hetu took a look at the upcoming center UFA class.  The marquee names are Charlie Coyle (who had a solid year in Columbus but some iffier seasons before that) and Evgeni Malkin (who isn’t leaving Pittsburgh for Winnipeg).  The next tier were Boone Jenner (probably more of a 3C at this point and he plays a lot on the wing), Scott Laughton (who spent a lot of time on the fourth line while with Toronto), and Jonathan Toews (who wound up going from the 2C at one point to the 4C role with the Jets).  It goes downhill from there.  Unless they win a bidding war for Coyle, they’re going to have a hard time filling that spot through the UFA market.

Lambert had top-six upside when he was drafted if everything panned out development-wise and even after his first year in Manitoba, he still had it.  The last two years have been a struggle though, even with him securing a regular role down the stretch.  It’s possible that he gets to a second-line level but I wouldn’t be predicting it.  Rosen at least has a better track record of being a top-line threat in the minors but there’s a reason Buffalo never gave him any sort of extended look.  They thought he was one of those (to borrow a baseball term) Quad-A guys who are too good for the minors but not good enough to play an impactful role at the top level.  I don’t think he’s a second liner either but maybe a third liner with some offensive skill could still be doable.  That would still help a bit, at least.

Unclemike1526: The Hawks’ goalie situation is in a transition period right now. Knight is now a known commodity but is he a definite 1 or a 1A in a perfect world? He has solid technique but isn’t the biggest guy in the world. I was on the fence about Gajan but after seeing him in the NCAA tournament, I’m on board. Less sure about Commesso and Soderblom is bad. Who is the best Scandinavian G the Hawks could draft in the 2nd round who could play in the SHL and not have Gajan and him trip over each other? Thanks.

I think it’s fair to say that the Blackhawks view Spencer Knight as their starter of the future.  I think he can be that for them.  He’s not going to be a Vezina contender year after year but if he’s a top-10 or top-15 goalie in his prime, I think they’d be just fine with that.  I suspect they think they have the backup in the organization at the moment already.  I expect Arvid Soderblom to get one more look and give Drew Commesso another full year in the minors where he can split time with Adam Gajan.  Commesso then might get a shot at the backup role in 2027-28 with the team pivoting to a Plan B if he isn’t ready or struggles.  Gajan will probably need some time.

As for the draft, this is not a particularly good group of Scandinavian netminders.  Douglas Nilsson and Viggo Tamm should be picked but the second round might be early for them.  I like the idea of adding another goalie at some point, however, to stagger the prospects a bit.  I’d be more inclined to look to Russia where Dmitri Borichev and Yegor Rybkin stand out.  Some rankings have Borichev as a possible late first-rounder while teams will see Rybkin’s size (6’7) and want to use an early pick on him; he could be a second-rounder as a result.

random comment guy: It’s time for KD and the Hawks to poop or get off the pot. Do you see any big signings this offseason? Do you see them making any big trades? If they don’t get one of the top two picks, who do you see them drafting (or trading it away)?

I don’t expect any big signings from Chicago this year as frankly, there aren’t many players available who would qualify as big signings.  Alex Tuch would be a nice addition to the top line and they have the cap space to get it done but unless they’re well above the market value, I could see Tuch wanting to sign with more of a contending team if he doesn’t ultimately re-up with Buffalo.  Darren Raddysh is the top blueliner available.  I think he stays in Tampa Bay, though, which would take him off the table.  I could, however, see them trying to sign someone like John Carlson to a pricey short-term deal to help insulate and mentor Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel while dragging up the floor of the group a bit.  Whether it’s him or someone else, I suspect they’re going to try to bring in some veteran upgrades.

I think GM Kyle Davidson will try to make a big swing on the trade front, however.  When I was doing their Offseason Checklist, the one theme that kept coming up was their young depth and deep draft pick cupboards.  Those are great to have but not all of those pieces are going to be part of Chicago’s future.  Packaging a promising young center, maybe a young defender, and a high draft pick is a package that should land them a long-term piece of significance.  Whether it’s on the wing or the back end remains to be seen but if there’s a big fish that fits the age group of their core who moves this year, I expect the Blackhawks to be big bidders.

On the draft front, I don’t see them trading the pick away if they’re not in the top two.  That is, unless they’re getting about a 20 or 21-year-old high draft pick who is already established in the NHL and the other team probably wouldn’t do that.  Caleb Malhotra is quickly rising up draft boards but center is their strong spot (unless they move some players out in trades) so I don’t think they’d lean there.  Not knowing where exactly they land in this scenario, I could see Keaton Verhoeff being the target.  They like college players and big, all-around right-shot defenders are hard to come by (even if they already have two).  In terms of who the most valuable asset could be beyond the top two, Verhoeff fits the profile if he develops to his full potential so I think they take the surplus there and deal with the ‘problem’ of maybe having too many down the road with a big trade.

Pyramid Headcrab: What teams that missed the playoffs this year do you suspect will git ‘er done next season?

Who’s most likely to make a brain-dead long-term signing that handcuffs the team?

Who’s going to have the most ill-advised rebuild?

For the first question, it’s hard not to pick the Panthers.  They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt and can’t possibly have more injury woes next season than this year.  As long as they get their goaltending settled, I think they’re back in.  I’m intrigued to see if Rick Bowness’ culture change promise yields some positive results; if so, I suspect the Blue Jackets can get in this time.  Something tells me the Sharks will make a big swing this summer that could sneak them into a Wild Card spot.  I’m tempted to put the Jets here (under the ‘things can’t go this bad again’ category) but I want to see what they can do in the offseason.  Really, all of these picks, other than maybe Florida, could change depending on the roster activity over the next couple of months.

For the second question, this isn’t necessarily as likely to happen moving forward given the big jumps coming to the salary cap.  One bad signing shouldn’t handcuff a team unless it’s already cap-strapped.  Upon my first read, the Rangers and Kraken came to mind as teams that might make a desperate move that backfires but they have the cap flexibility to overcome a bad signing like that.  The only teams that can be handcuffed in this question are those that are the tightest to the 2026-27 Upper Limit.  Of those, I’d have to pick Vegas.  They swing big all the time but have limited flexibility.  Eventually, they could miss on one and with so much of their team locked up long-term, missing on a big swing would hurt them more than others.

I’ll go with Vancouver.  They’ve been directionless for the last couple of years and now have a lot of spots to fill along with some above-market contracts that are going to be hard to move.  They’ll fill one of those needs at the draft but it’s going to take a while if all goes right for them to turn things around.  With how odd this GM search has been, I’m not overly confident that there won’t be some stumbles along the way that lengthens the rebuild.

Nha Trang: Hah, this isn’t a question so much as an observation: how many of the pundits who bleat about the so-called “President’s Trophy curse” have bothered to check on the Cup-winning odds of the *second* place regular season team? Or the third? Or the fourth?

The President’s Trophy has been awarded 40 times in total and we know the subsequent Cup winner for 39 of those; we’ll see how Colorado fares in June, should they get that far.  Let’s look at the distribution and percentages (rounded to the nearest tenth so no, it doesn’t quite add to precisely 100%) of Cup winners over that time based on their regular-season finishes.

1st: 8 winners (20.5%)
2nd: 4 winners (10.3%)
3rd: 3 winners (7.7%)
4th: 6 winners (15.4%)
5th: 4 winners (10.3%)
6th: 3 winners (7.7%)
7th: 4 winners (10.3%)
8th: 2 winners (5.1%)
9th: 1 winner (2.6%)
10th: 1 winner (2.6%)
11th: 1 winner (2.6%)
12th: 1 winner (2.6%)
13th: 1 winner (2.6%)
14th: 0 winners
15th: 0 winners
16th: 0 winners

If you ask me, first overall is still statistically the best spot to be, even if it’s still a roughly four-in-five chance that they won’t win the Cup.  I will note, however, that since the salary cap came into effect, only two Presidents’ Trophy winners have won (Detroit in 2008 and Chicago in 2013).  I’m not one who subscribes to the ‘curse’ theory given the general parity in the NHL but 12 years and counting since a first-overall team won the Stanley Cup is something.

Jolly Roger: Has there been any investigation, suspicion, controversy or rumor about match-fixing in the NHL or at any other level in professional, collegial, or amateur hockey in any country, including misconducts by officials?

Within the last few years, a pair of wingers were investigated and cleared amidst gambling allegations: Vancouver’s Evander Kane and Ottawa’s Arthur Kaliyev, the latter coming just this season.  That isn’t the exact same thing as match-fixing but some like to connect the two.

Outside the NHL, there was a Belarus Extraliga game in which seven players admitted to being approached about manipulating the outcome of the game and that they accepted.  The players – five Belarusian and two Russian – were suspended by the IIHF but their names were not published.  The incident occurred in a matchup between Dynamo Molodechno and Mogilyov.  Five months later, IK Bjorkloven in Sweden’s Allsvenskan level (second-tier) was investigated amongst match-fixing allegations but was ultimately cleared.  They had a 3-0 lead in the game before allowing eight unanswered to Mora.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Nashville’s open GM position, what players have a lot to gain or lose by their playoff performances, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in one of our next two mailbag columns.

Gbear: Who gets the Preds GM job and does Bruno stay or go?

While Barry Trotz is on the way out, I tend to believe his words from earlier this week when he talked about the thought of keeping a lot of this roster intact.  That has me leaning toward a candidate that’s a little more predictable in Tom Fitzgerald.  While he took some swings toward the end of his tenure in New Jersey, he’s not going to come in saying that they need to execute a full rebuild.  I can’t help but wonder if some of the other first-time candidates might be recommending the other direction which might hurt their chances.

I think what also works in Fitzgerald’s favor is that he has held a dual President/GM role before with the Devils.  Throughout this long search, it certainly doesn’t sound like the team is looking to hire two separate people for those roles.  If that’s the case, having an experienced candidate who can handle both might appeal a little more.

Fitzgerald, of course, is familiar with head coach Andrew Brunette, as he hired him to join the Devils as an assistant coach.  Brunette then left a year later to take this job.  With what seems like a good history from their one year together and how this group finished the season, I suspect they’d stay conservative and keep the status quo intact for now if it winds up being Fitzgerald getting the job.  If things don’t go well in 2026-27, then it would be easier for them to make a change.

rayk: What is your opinion of the draft lottery which is approaching on 5/5? Is having teams like the Islanders and Mammoth move up so many slots as they did in 2025 really help promote league parity?

For me, the lottery is a partial solution to a problem that doesn’t have a great solution to it.  Teams that want to tank are going to try to position themselves as low in the standings no matter what the draft order rule is.  If it’s straight reverse standings, we’ve seen how bad that can go.  The lottery creates some randomness which is fun but the bottom-feeding teams are still going to want to get as low as possible to increase their odds of picking first and ensure they don’t slide down as much.  There’s no getting around that.

One solution that is gaining some popularity is the Gold Plan.  Named after its inventor, Adam Gold, the idea is that the first pick goes to the team that gets the most points after being eliminated from playoff contention.  The PWHL uses it.  However, the workaround there is that a team struggles early, has a bunch of core guys get ‘injured’ midseason, then they all come back in March after the team has been mathematically eliminated.  All it does is change when a team decides to sit all its players for tanking purposes.

The lottery isn’t perfect.  But I don’t think there is a perfect solution out there as they’re all easily manipulable.  So having some randomness that gives teams (and fans) a bit more hope seems like a good enough solution for now, at least.

SkidRowe: Will the league rig the lottery so the Toronto Maple Losers are in the top 2?

I feel like this is an important time to remind you that the lottery is done with ping pong balls.  Literal dollar store ping pong balls.  They first provided the video of it in 2022 and if you’re not familiar with the mechanics of how it’s done, I recommend you watch it.  It’s dry and boring but it does provide a good overview of each step.

It’s 14 equally weighted ping pong balls and a lottery-drawing machine.  This isn’t drawing for an envelope that may or may not have been left in a freezer, it’s a 10-cent ball which somehow is harder to rig.  The lottery combinations are assigned to teams in advance (and sometimes are even posted online before the actual proceedings) so there’s no room for uh, excess creativity on that front either.  Conspiracy theories can be fun but how they do the lotteries is legit.

Toronto has greater than a 17% chance of picking in the top two.  After what has happened in recent years, their landing a top-two spot is very much within the realistic range of possibilities.

Cla23: With Hellebuyck’s frustration with the Jets’ season, do you see a trade? If so, where do you think he lands and what do the Jets get in return?

Keep in mind he wants to contend, not rebuild, and NT/NM contracts come into play.

Probably not this summer.  His comments about not wanting the team to be too complacent again this summer suggests to me that he still wants to be there; he just wants to see some other changes to the roster.  If that doesn’t happen, then yeah, he might want out.  The problem is that by the time Hellebuyck will have a chance to assess the state of the roster, most teams will already have their rosters set (or at least wouldn’t be looking to trade for a number one netminder).  So even if he looked at their roster in August and said it’s time for a move, there probably isn’t one available until midseason at the earliest or, more likely, next summer.

But, let’s say he does ask out so that I can tackle the second part of the question.  Vegas stands out to me as a potential fit.  Adin Hill had a rough year while Carter Hart and Akira Schmid have shown good flashes at times but have been inconsistent.  Hellebuyck would give them a much more proven starter.  I could see both Hill and Schmid in the return, negating the need to bring back Eric Comrie.  To make the money work, I think William Karlsson could also be in there, giving Winnipeg at least a short-term center at the same time.  Hill and Karlsson both have 10-team no-trade clauses which could scuttle things so let’s get that out of the way.

Given Hill’s struggles and Karlsson’s short-term deal, either Karlsson would need to come with an extension or there would need to be another piece of significance in there.  I could see Kevin Cheveldayoff asking for Trevor Connelly but he’s someone Vegas doesn’t want to move.  If it landed them a top-end goalie though (and got them out of Hill’s contract), maybe that’d make it worthwhile.

I could also see Florida in there but the potential return is harder to peg down.  They don’t have a starter to send the other way which makes it a tough sell right away.  With both Aleksander Barkov and Sam Bennett signed long-term, teams will call about Anton Lundell and I imagine Winnipeg would do that, hoping to fill the longstanding 2C issue and then trying to get a goalie from elsewhere.  I’m not sure the Panthers would, however.  But at any rate, I don’t expect Hellebuyck to be asking out this month.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a tour around the Pacific Division, potential captains in St. Louis, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

Emoney123: Can the Flyers please just lose… they win enough games to be close but just out of the playoffs does nothing but hurt their draft order. They have stumbled into finding a #1 goalie in Vladar… what’s next? Can they sign Vitali Pinchuk and finally just end the rebuild? They have to be able to do better than picking players like Nesbitt R1-#12 and Luchanko R1-#13 the past two years!

Well, since this question was posed, they’ve gone and rattled off a bunch of wins to put them right on the edge of a playoff spot.  So, to answer the first thought, no, they’re not going to just lose.  And honestly, that’s something I don’t think they’re too worried about.  Frankly, with the Blue Jackets and Islanders scuffling, they might get in, even.

They’re a good enough team to not be at the level of the pure rebuilder but don’t seem to have the inclination to tear things down either.  That’s why they elected not to sell off parts of their veteran core, either by placing too high an asking price or by simply not entertaining offers for those players.  By taking the approach they have, this is going to be the end result.  I have to think they’re content with it, too, as otherwise, they’d be modifying it.  As for what’s next, it might be more of the same.

I don’t think Pinchuk is the type of piece where they say the rebuild is over either.  Yes, he’s a promising prospect.  But I don’t think he’s the top center they’re lacking.  He might be more of a second or third-line option which is what they already have.  That’s not to say that they shouldn’t try to get him – a free NHL piece is a free NHL piece – but he’s not the final piece of the rebuilding puzzle.

There has been an emphasis on high-floor players at the draft in recent years.  With that foundation in place now, I’d like to see the Flyers take a swing on skill a bit more in June.  While there’s a bigger risk going that way, the potential reward is also higher and the depth they’ve amassed in recent years should give them a chance to be a bit more aggressive in the search for a more impactful piece.

PyramidHeadcrab: Pacific Lightning Round:

1. Do the Sharks make the playoffs, and if not, what’s the missing piece?
2. How long is Seattle going to keep playing “loves me, loves me not” with Shane Wright?
3. Anaheim is having one hell of a year, what’s their X factor?
4. Between Cooley and Wolf, Calgary has had a couple of years of stellar goaltending, but they struggle to score. Is there a scenario where they retain at least one good goalie and finally get some reliable scoring?
5. How vulnerable is Vegas to the likes of San Jose and Los Angeles pushing them out with their 15 OT loser points(!) barely keeping them in a playoff spot?
6. Vancouver’s future is looking dire, do the upcoming draft years have enough to pull them out of the dregs?
7. Edmonton had a long string of #1 overall picks for a while there, and not even Nail Yakupov was enough to get them to a Cup. This year, they’re barely hanging on to a playoff spot, and had they been in the East, they wouldn’t even be in the picture. At what point does management look at the situation and decide it’s time to rework the model?
8. I honestly don’t know a damn thing about LA this year, they just kind of exist in the background. Tell me something nice about the City of Los Angeles.

1) The Sharks enter play today in a three-way tie for the final Wild Card spot.  Few thought they’d be in this situation at this point of the season.  That said, I’m still leaning toward them narrowly missing.  They have a couple of missing pieces at this point.  One is another proven top-six forward to give them more offensive pop.  The other is a top-six defenseman (or two).  There are prospects who could fill that role down the road but a long-term addition would be great.  Failing that, another Dmitry Orlov-esque move could help.

2) If there isn’t a move this summer, they could be playing that for a while.  With one year left on his entry-level deal, Wright may have more value now than the 2027 offseason when he’ll be hitting restricted free agency with perhaps less perceived upside if he stays on his current path for another year.  In that scenario, Seattle wouldn’t want to sell low, meaning that this could be a storyline for a while.

3) Probably Lukas Dostal.  Anaheim is one of the higher-scoring teams this season but goaltending has been an issue, something that’s not entirely uncommon for a young roster.  However, Dostal has been a bit too inconsistent this season for someone who is now the undisputed starting goalie.  If he can be at his best come the playoffs, they could do some damage.  If that’s too obvious a choice, I’ll go with Frank Vatrano.  He has all of four goals this season, two years removed from a 37-goal campaign.  He has more to give and could be a difference-maker from a secondary scoring perspective.

4) I don’t expect either goalie to go anywhere so the answer is probably yes.  Dustin Wolf is entrenched as the starter while Devin Cooley’s track record is still limited which might limit his trade value; he’d probably not fetch the return they’d deem worthy enough to move him.  In theory, they could push in some of their trade capital (picks and prospects) to get a top-six scorer without touching their goalies.  I don’t think they will this summer though.  But Wolf is going to be there for the long haul so yes, they’ll eventually get scoring help while still having at least one good goalie in the fold.

5) With only a five-point lead on a playoff spot, Vegas absolutely is vulnerable, at least in theory.  But with how bad this division has been all season, I don’t trust anyone to go on a long enough winning streak to knock the Golden Knights out.  If I have to pick between a bunch of underachieving teams for who is to make the playoffs, I’m going to go with the group that at least has a track record of success.  The potential ‘new coach bump’ also works in their favor with John Tortorella being the surprising hire last weekend.

6) It’s not as if there’s a smorgasbord of extra picks in the cupboard.  They have one extra first-round pick in the next three years, although three extra second-rounders help.  If the ping pong balls go their way in the lottery and they hit on some of these second-rounders, the draft could be enough to turn them around in a few years.  That said, their recent draft history doesn’t fill me with a ton of confidence.

7) Not anytime soon.  When you have two of the top five or so players in the world on your team, you’re probably not willingly going to deviate from that.  The rapid escalation of the salary cap should help them in terms of keeping the core while still maintaining some room to add to it.  If they can get the goaltending situation figured out (and that’s a big if), they’ll be just fine in the long run.

8) Without the city of Los Angeles, this very site might not exist.  Okay, maybe that’s a bit of a stretch, but the internet was created in Los Angeles on the campus of UCLA back in 1969.  Leonard Kleinrock, the architect of the first message, recounted that at the 50-year anniversary in a piece for the Los Angeles Times back in 2019 if you want to read more about it.  I think that’s something nice.

DevilShark: What 1C or 2C options between the ages of 24 and 28 could be had in the offseason for picks or prospects to round out the Devils’ top six?

When I first saw this question, my initial thought was no one.  If teams have an in-prime top-six center, they’re probably not moving them for draft picks and prospects.  Those are the pieces teams should be building around, not moving away.  But after looking around, there are two that come to mind, neither of whom should come as much of a surprise.

One is Robert Thomas, someone who the Blues had in play at the trade deadline.  The thought at the time was that they were seeking at least three top-15 or equivalent pieces between draft picks in that range plus prospects or young players worth that type of return in a trade.  Now, does incoming GM Alex Steen take him off the market?  I have to think that he and Doug Armstrong were in lockstep on a plan at the deadline so my assumption would be no.  I’d imagine that New Jersey’s first-round pick this year and prospect Anton Silayev would be pieces in that move, while they’d likely have to offload at least some salary the other way.  Another high-end part would need to be in there as well to meet their asking price.

The other is a bit more of a wild card, that being Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson.  In his first full season as the undisputed number one center on the Canucks, things haven’t gone well.  He managed just 45 points in 2024-25 and is scoring at nearly an identical clip this season.  That’s not a great return on a cap hit of $11.6MM through 2031-32 (and that’s putting it lightly).  There’s also a belief that Vancouver doesn’t want to retain any of that money to facilitate a move.  That means that there’s a cap-matching piece or two that would have to move but beyond that, draft picks and prospects might be enough to get him.  There would be a ton of risk involved but in a lower-pressure role in the lineup and a new environment, the reward could be considerable as well.

vincent k. mcmahon: Do the Blues have a new captain next season or do they wait until 27-28 to name the next captain?

Assuming Thomas and/or Parayko aren’t traded, could one of them be in line to be the next captain or someone outside the box like Buchnevich, etc?

I’m one of those people who think way too much attention gets paid to captaincies and that the role is largely ceremonial.  (I know some would very strongly disagree on this one.)  But this is certainly a fair question given that the two logical candidates you suggested could very well be on the move this summer.  And if that happens, I’m not sure there’s a great fit for next season.

Jake Neighbours could be a viable candidate at some point.  He’s already an alternate captain and, at least at first glance, it doesn’t appear as if he’s among the players that the Blues are open to moving.  On the other hand, he’s just about to turn 24 which is still on the younger side to be the designated leader of the team.  He might be the long-term internal option but if both Thomas and Parayko go this summer, I could see them going captain-less for a year and then assessing if Neighbours is ready for the role.

letsgonats: What fixes do you see for the Capitals? Top-three scoring winger but 20 teams want that too.

The power play demise and the lowly shooting percentage are fatal. What would be your fix?

Who needs to move in that is getable and who needs to be traded to do so?

I’m going to go a little out of order here and start with the shooting percentage.  Entering Saturday’s action, the Capitals had a shooting percentage of 11.1%.  Considering the league average is 11.0%, I’m not sure how much cause for concern that is.  Ideally, you’d like to see them a little more above average but getting back to first overall in that department as they were last season (12.6%, average 10.7%) isn’t going to happen.  If we’re quibbling over half a percent or so (even a full percent), that’s not necessarily a huge concern that necessarily needs to be addressed.

Now, the power play is more of a concern.  If you want to be a playoff team, having one of the worst marks with the man advantage (putting them around 3% below league average) isn’t ideal.  Beyond adding impactful scoring, one fix there might be shifting up the tactics.  Some of the better power plays in the league feature a lot of movement, designed to get the penalty killers out of position with the idea of capitalizing on openings.  Washington’s power play setup is a bit more static and traditional.  Part of that is having Alex Ovechkin in ‘his office’ and that runs counter to the idea of more positionless forwards.  But taking that more modern approach might help.  Cole Hutson’s addition should help if they go that route next season (the early returns are promising).  And a bit more success with the man advantage would probably boost their shooting percentage too.

I’m not so sure that it’s going to be about who moves out as much as who comes in.  Washington has over $35MM in cap space for next season, per PuckPedia, with only a handful of roster spots to fill.  They don’t necessarily need to move anyone out.  Ovechkin needs a new deal if he wants to keep playing and Connor McMichael is heading for a big raise but even with those, there’s lots of room to add without trading anyone away.

The challenge with the other part of your question is that we don’t know who all was in play at the trade deadline that might be getable so it’s hard to come up with specifics.  But if there’s a top-six forward or a top-four defender available, I expect GM Chris Patrick to be going after them.  It’s going to be a wide net on that front.

Last season felt like an aberration for Washington, where just about everything went right.  This year, not much has.  But in the grand scheme of things, they’re a bubble team in a division that appears to have a bunch of bubble teams.  There’s a good core in place and more flexibility cap-wise than a lot of teams have.  This season hasn’t been great but they’re in a spot to make a few moves and make a push to get back to the playoffs next year.

Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry-Imagn Images.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include forecasting the next contract for the top-scoring pending UFA, Buffalo’s turnaround, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have one more mailbag to come from our latest call for questions.

bigalval: Does Ken Holland have any clue what he’s doing? Rob Blake was bad and Holland’s moves have been puzzling at best.

Holland has been around long enough that I’m confident in saying he knows what he’s doing; there is a plan in place.  His moves over the offseason clearly signaled that he was leaning into the team playing a slower, more deliberate game and that after being unable to land a big fish, he leaned into building up their depth.  You can quibble with some of the moves made (and I’d say you’re probably right to do so) but I understand the method to the madness.

Then there’s the Artemi Panarin move.  If you’re thinking that moving a first-round prospect in Liam Greentree to get him with a two-year extension doesn’t make sense for a bubble team, I get that.  The rebuild is probably coming at some point; it can only be stalled so long.  And with Los Angeles struggling mightily offensively, this might not have been the right time to take a big swing.  Clearly, Holland believes that this group could do some damage in a Pacific Division that’s up for grabs; they just have to get there first.

That belief I suspect also shaped the decision to make a coaching change, even if it came a lot later than most would have expected.  The results have been middling since D.J. Smith took over (not unlike how they were before) but there’s still time to win a few and really lock down a playoff spot.  I like the approach to go with an interim coach in case they want to pivot to a different option over the summer and perhaps change their system a little more drastically.

So far, things have largely looked like more of the same under Holland despite a much higher volume of moves.  But there’s a plan in place; I’m just not sure it’s necessarily the right one as again, that rebuild is bound to happen at some point and it wouldn’t shock me if it’s sooner than later.

lgr34561: Do you think this recent hot streak with Gabriel Perreault and more specifically Alexis Lafreniere is legit and something Rangers fans should be seriously optimistic about or just assume it’s Lafreniere just going on a short streak then back to his old ways?

Generally speaking, I try not to read too much into how players perform down the stretch when they’re on teams playing for nothing but pride.  However, there’s still room for some optimism with how those two have performed as of late.

This month, Perreault has four goals and eight assists in 10 games.  Perhaps more notably, he’s averaging over 18 minutes per game in March.  Those are legitimate top-level reps that are going to help him beyond this season.  The Rangers drafted Perreault with the hope that he can be an impactful top-six forward for them.  I’m not sure he’s going to be fully ready to be that next season (a lot will depend on offseason moves as well) but this stretch suggests that he’s trending in the right direction to have that role.

As for Lafreniere, he has done this before, where he has a good stretch.  However, he hasn’t followed that up by continuing it for an extended amount of time.  He’s not going to have that chance here either with the season almost over.  Don’t get me wrong, 14 points in 10 March games is nice to see but I’m not ready to think that this is the beginning of the long-awaited breakout.  I think this But if GM Chris Drury is pondering trading the 24-year-old this summer, this performance certainly can’t hurt from a value standpoint.

FeeltheThunder: I already asked about Nikita Kucherov’s extension. Now, I must ask about Darren Raddysh. How do you think Tampa will approach the intriguing Raddysh conundrum? GM Julien BriseBois had recently stated he wants to keep Raddysh wearing a Bolts’ jersey after this season and Tampa will have an admirable amount of cap space this offseason ranging around $15 to $16 million. I feel Tampa will keep him, it’s just what is the final price and term going to be?

Also, Tampa didn’t get an extra RD at the trade deadline, so do you think they’ll search for an additional RD in the offseason of FA even with Raddysh, Cernak, and Crozier and if so, who might those prospects potentially be?

This might be the most fascinating contract of the offseason.  Heading into the season, Raddysh looked like he was heading for a nice raise after back-to-back 30-plus-point years.  Making $975K this season, if he landed in the $3.5MM range or so with his limited usage, that would have made sense for both sides.

But then this season happened.  Raddysh doesn’t just lead all pending UFA defensemen in points but rather pending unrestricted free agents, period.  He’s up to 60 points in as many games.  And it’s not as if he’s still getting limited minutes either; he’s averaging close to 23 minutes per night and even seeing light penalty killing playing time.  Being a right-shot defender with this type of output in a market where cap space exceeds the quality of players available and you have the perfect storm for a huge offer.

Given where things are, I could see a team, perhaps begrudgingly, offering $7.5MM per season for Raddysh, rationalizing that even if he winds up in the 45-50-point range next year, it could still age well.  I don’t think Tampa Bay would be willing to go quite that high, even with their cap space and right-side situation.  GM Julien BriseBois isn’t known for paying top dollar.  I could see a long-term pact (six years or so) around $6MM or so being where the two sides ultimately settle where he leaves a bit on the table to stay but still gets life-changing money.

Assuming that they get Raddysh re-signed, I think they’ll be content enough with him and Cernak as their top two right-shot rearguards.  I could see them looking for a third-pairing player that keeps Maxwell Crozier in a reserve role, however.  Nick Jensen coming off an injury-riddled season is eligible for a one-year, bonus-laden deal.  That feels like a good fit, giving him a soft landing spot to try to rebuild some value while possibly giving Tampa Bay some value for the role.  A reunion with Luke Schenn could be a viable option as well.

FeeltheThunder: I want to add one more question here. I think Tampa should look for a new backup goaltender this offseason as Jonas Johansson is just way too hot and cold. I think if they bring in competition this offseason like a UFA in Matt Murray, for example, would be an improvement. Also, Tampa may need an AHL goaltender for Syracuse if they don’t bring back Brandon Halverson (which would be surprising) but they could have Johansson for that if so. What do you think of the whole situation?

For years now, the Lightning have been in a spot where they haven’t had a choice but to go with low-cost options.  Some of that has been self-inflicted with their other moves but now, as you noted with your first question, they have a lot more cap flexibility this summer.  I think they would benefit from upgrading on Johansson, it just comes down to how much more money they want to spend on the position.  Murray is one who isn’t exactly the most consistent either but if they just wanted to bring in someone for competition (and waive the one who doesn’t make it), I could see that happening.  And if so, that might push Halverson out.

Otherwise, I’d hope they’d aim a little higher and try to get someone who can maybe cover 25-30 games a season.  With the increased minimum salary next season, they’d clear all but $25K of Johansson’s salary off the books with an AHL assignment so I think it’d be worth their while to explore it.

As for the AHL side, it feels like about a third of the veteran goalies bounce around from year to year.  If Halverson leaves, there will be plenty of other AHL veterans to choose from so I wouldn’t worry too much about that situation.  It actually wouldn’t surprise me if they look to an international goalie in free agency, a younger one that could see some time with the Crunch while trying to see if they can develop a future backup for a couple of years from now.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include thoughts on what Utah did and didn’t do at the trade deadline, the rescinding of Nathan MacKinnon’s major penalty, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in our next two mailbag columns.

SpeakOfTheDevils: I know what he said in his after-deadline presser but what are the odds that Tom Fitzgerald is fired as the GM of the NJ Devils this offseason? Second part, who would be the top three choices to replace him???

General managers typically get a longer leash than coaches but he’s had the role since January 2020 when he took over in an interim capacity, getting the tag lifted soon after.  He’s had five full seasons in charge and the Devils have won just one playoff round in that span.  Barring a miracle comeback over the final month, they won’t get a chance to add to that number this spring.  Yes, they’ve had some injuries, but they can’t use that as a crutch again.  Based on that, you might be inclined to think the odds are rather high that he’d be fired.

But he’s also the team president, a role he has only held since January 2024.  His contract terms weren’t disclosed but there are probably a couple of years left on it.  And if ownership still believes in his vision, maybe he stays.

Maybe there’s an in-between option, one we’ve seen more frequently in recent years.  What if Fitzgerald is moved to just president duties and cedes the GM role?  Is that viewed as a possible compromise?  I could see that happening, so maybe the odds of him not being GM could be in the 50-60% range and the odds of him leaving the organization outright more in the 30-40% territory.

As for part two, if Fitzgerald is out as GM, a lot depends on if he’s out altogether or just as GM.  If they remove the GM title but keep him as president, Dan MacKinnon, their assistant GM, would be the logical choice to move up and take on a bigger role.  If he’s gone altogether, I think Marc Bergevin would get consideration.  He has been up for a couple of jobs lately and it feels like a matter of when, not if, he gets another crack.  Brendan Shanahan is believed to be looking to get back into things.  That one might be more of a president role but I think he’d be on the list.  I also expect Ryan Martin to land one of the GM jobs soon.  A veteran of 20 years in various front offices, he’s second in command with the Rangers at the moment and a chance to steal someone from a key rival might be appealing.

bottlesup: With the addition of Weegar, could you see the Mammoth possibly upsetting whoever the Pacific Division champ is in the 1st round? Assuming Utah continues to hold a firm grip on the WC1.

I’ll preface this by saying that I like the MacKenzie Weegar pickup for Utah.  Yes, he’s having a down year but the track record is solid and if he’s in more of a second-pairing role for the Mammoth which he’s better suited to, I think he’ll bounce back a bit.  So far, the early returns have been decent.  But is he a big needle-mover?  I’m not sure he materially affects their odds of winning a series.  He helps get them there, but I don’t think his addition necessarily gives them a big leg up against a Pacific team.

Having said that, I think Utah has a legitimate chance to pull off an upset, simply because the Pacific Division just isn’t that great.  Anaheim is playing well but like Utah, they’re very inexperienced in the playoffs so that could be a toss-up.  Vegas isn’t turning things around like many expected them to.  However, they have a good enough track record in the playoffs that they’d probably be the favorite in a hypothetical series.  The same can be said about Edmonton.  The Kings and Sharks aren’t entirely out of it but probably aren’t getting into first place so I won’t cover them here.  Utah has a shot at making it through the first round if they can hold onto that top Wild Card spot.

Gbear: Feels to me that Utah missed a chance at the deadline to add a top-six winger (the whole Thomas thing from the Blues was a non-starter) and really give themselves a chance to win a round or two. Keller deserved that chance. Thoughts?

After they picked up Weegar without moving any of their top assets, I thought Utah GM Bill Armstrong was well-positioned to make a splash up front but it obviously didn’t happen.  I don’t know how much of a chance was missed, though.  Which top-six wingers actually moved?  Bobby Brink has been one before, Conor Garland (who the team is familiar with from their days in Arizona), and, well, that’s about it.  Centers and defensemen were the currency and that’s something Utah didn’t need to dabble in, especially knowing they were nearing an extension with Nick Schmaltz that has since been finalized and that they had already acquired Weegar.

It’s not a bad thing either that they didn’t push in a bunch of chips.  There’s something to be said for getting some playoff experience and then using that to shape their next aggressive swing over the summer.  And, as noted above, they’re in a spot where they could very well get through the first round if they wind up in the Pacific bracket.  I expect there will be more opportunities to add a top-six winger over the offseason than there were at the trade deadline so in the end, they might wind up being better off for having waited, assuming they get something across the finish line a few months from now.

sovietcanuckistanian: I don’t know about you, but did Edmonton miss the boat by not significantly upgrading either/both of its defense corps and goalie at the trade deadline? With Florida almost assuredly not making the playoffs (injury bug), it seems like a missed opportunity – especially since McDavid is on that only two-year extension.

I’m going to flip the order of these so I can pick up on the theme from the last question about how realistic a move for a goalie upgrade there was.  There wasn’t a single NHL goaltender moved at or leading up to the deadline.  I know there was speculation about Sergei Bobrovsky but I don’t think trade talks got far considering Florida is trying to re-sign him.  Jordan Binnington’s name was out there but the Oilers can’t afford to take on the contract and I don’t think St. Louis would have retained salary.  Was anyone else out there really an upgrade?  There were rumblings about a Toronto goalie but that feels more like an offseason decision.  Samuel Montembeault’s name was thought to be in play but is he an improvement given how his season has gone?  It’s hard to be too critical in that sense since there wasn’t much out there that they could do.

Granted, some of that is self-inflicted.  GM Stan Bowman traded for Tristan Jarry’s contract in full, cutting into their financial flexibility.  He also signed Andrew Mangiapane to a contract that they wound up having to pay a high price to get out of, also cutting into that flexibility.  That Jarry trade was risky at the time it was made and hasn’t aged well since then.

That financial situation also limited what they could do defensively, although I think they did well enough with what they had to work with.  Connor Murphy isn’t a top-four player anymore but he should stabilize things defensively and help on the penalty kill.  They didn’t have the cap space to do much more than a depth deal, nor did they have the prospect or draft assets to get into the bidding on some of the more prominent blueliners to move.

It’s a missed opportunity in the sense that Florida isn’t in the playoffs and the division is up for grabs.  Edmonton could very well have bolstered their chances to take the division and give them a chance to make the Conference Final once again.  But in terms of their limitations (asset and cap-wise), I don’t think they did terribly.  It wasn’t an ‘A’ deadline but a ‘B-‘ or ‘C+’ one.

tucsontoro: The Hawks lead the league in blown leads. It’s great that they have Boisvert and Frondell on the verge of joining the big club. But if they don’t find a way to keep the puck out of their own net, they won’t be going anywhere for a long time. Where does the defense come from?

In a nutshell, time and external acquisitions.  Unfortunately for rebuilding teams, there is no fast-forward button when it comes to defensive development.  While young forwards can sometimes make a big impact right away, it doesn’t generally happen as often with defensemen.  Generally, the thought is a blueliner needs at least 200 to 250 NHL games before they’re truly ready and might not hit their prime for a little while after that.  Chicago only has two players in that range and one of them (Matt Grzelcyk) is on an expiring deal; Alex Vlasic is the other at 243.

Sam Rinzel will get there.  So will Artyom Levshunov.  But they’re a couple more years away at least from getting to a baseline level of reliability defensively and likely longer before they’re consistently counted on as shutdown players.

In the meantime, GM Kyle Davidson will need to look outside the organization to bring in some help.  They have a boatload of draft assets and prospects to deal from, particularly down the middle; with centers being in high demand, they can take advantage of it.  An external add or two like that over the next few seasons will help in those late-game situations but it’s going to take some time before Chicago is much more reliable when it comes to holding the lead.  It’s something that a lot of young teams go through and the process can rarely be sped up.

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