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PHR Mailbag

PHR Mailbag: CHL-NCAA Movement, Salary Cap, Goaltending, Bruins, August 15 Free Agents

August 16, 2025 at 3:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a look at salary cap spending, several goaltending questions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in one of our next two columns.

BlackAce57: I don’t know if it’s something that’s been happening for a while or a growing trend, but are more Canadian junior players going to US colleges when they turn 18 now that NIL is a factor? Do you think this will keep increasing?

This isn’t something that has been going on for very long now.  It’s actually the first year where CHL players are no longer viewed as professionals by the NCAA, thereby making players from those leagues eligible to go to college.  NIL money aside, simply changing the eligibility to allow major junior players to go play Division I hockey was going to create a big group of people wanting to make the change.  The ability to potentially be paid much more than what the CHL-allowable stipend is (between $50 and $150 in Canadian dollars per week) only intensified that interest.

I don’t expect this to be something that keeps increasing to any sort of significant degree.  In reality, there are only so many spots available each year as there are only so many Division I teams and there will still be USHL and USHS players vying for some of those.  That means there has to be some sort of a limit on the movement in the grand scheme of things.

Having said that, I suspect we will see even more turnover in the NCAA than we’ve seen in recent years since the transfer portal came into play.  There will still be activity there while more players than we normally see will graduate to the pros after a year or two of eligibility.  Then, there will be efforts to try to get that top recruit which could result in some players getting cut.

I think what we’ve seen this year is the start but there shouldn’t be a huge jump next year.  I expect we’ll see an incremental jump in transfer activity over the next couple of years, a good chunk of which will probably come from the CHL before the volume of annual movement starts to settle.  In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if the CHL is able to do anything to retain some of its top talent or if it will settle in as a league that skews a little younger age-wise compared to what it has been in the past.

yeasties: With the cap going up so much and many teams apparently choosing to maintain a working reserve this year, do you think GMs will maintain this discipline over the long term, or will teams eventually spend up to the cap again?

I’m not sure how much of the underspent cap is something that came from a choice or rather just from a lack of options.  This wasn’t a great UFA class and it’s that market that has a tendency to drive prices upward.  Not every team has had to contend with it yet either.  If you had a team with a lot of core players on long-term deals already, the bulk of the heavy lifting cap-wise is already done, making it easier to have that cushion.  We’re only a few months into this higher Upper Limit projection so a lot can and will change.

It’ll be interesting to see how many teams are able to keep those reserves.  Per PuckPedia, there are 13 teams with $2.1MM or less of cap space already.  For teams near the higher end of that, even one injury can derail a lot of those plans and odds being odds, there will be injuries.  The ones with a million or two more (of which there are four) should have more wiggle room on the injury front while the rest should have ample cap room no matter what.  That is a little abnormal compared to what we’ve seen.

I do think it’s a sign of things to come, however.  The reality is that not every team is going to be willing to spend to the max as that’s a pretty significant year-over-year increase in player costs.  Ideally, profits should be going up as well to offset that but some teams are much more profitable than others; not all will increase revenues at a rate that matches or exceeds the increase in costs.  I can see a scenario a few years from now where we’re talking about budget room more often as fewer teams aim to spend to the ceiling and instead will work within a budget with potentially room to spend if they find themselves in contention.

I’m also curious to see what the impact of significantly restricting double-retention trades in the new CBA will be.  As a refresher, right now, teams can trade a player with retention with that player getting immediately rerouted with further retention to another team.  That type of trade has become quite common leading up to the trade deadline in recent years.  But this season will be the last of those as starting in 2026-27, there will be a 75-day in-season requirement before a player whose contract has already been retained on once can be moved with retention again.

Knowing that the double-retention option is going to largely be off the table, teams will need to have considerably more cap space banked by the trade deadline.  I expect that some squads will place a higher target on their cap room to start the season to account for that, meaning fewer will spend so tight to the cap.  So, I don’t think this is an outlier but rather the beginning of a new shift in spending policy, one that will take a few years to really establish itself.

PyramidHeadcrab: Now that rosters have settled a bit, who has the…

– Worst goaltending roster?
– Best goaltending roster?
– Best goaltending prospects?
– Goaltender most likely to find an extra gear in 25-26?

1) I’m going to go with Columbus, especially as a team that feels it has playoff aspirations.  Elvis Merzlikins has shown that he’s not a capable starter and hasn’t been for several years now.  While they re-signed Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro, they haven’t actually improved the back end which could have been a way to improve the goaltending.  Meanwhile, Jet Greaves had quite the finish to last season but before that, he had merely been okay in limited action while his AHL numbers are decent but not necessarily dominant.  Is he the solution?  I’m not certain about that yet and if you have questions about both goalies heading into the season, that’s not ideal.  There are teams with similarly iffy goaltending (especially in that division) but playoff hopes breaks the tie here.

2) This might be a surprise on paper but I’m going to go with Toronto.  Anthony Stolarz showed that his 2023-24 breakout wasn’t a fluke and he was quite impactful when healthy.  Joseph Woll wasn’t quite as impactful but was above average as well.  Both were in the top 11 league-wide in Goals Saved Above Expected, per MoneyPuck.  The fact that they’re among the lowest-spending teams at the position makes things more impressive.  There are teams with a better starter but also a much weaker backup.  An injury to the top dog would be a huge issue but for the Maple Leafs, going to Woll as a near-term starter wouldn’t be a massive drop-off.  Add to that a roster that looks more inclined to play a defensive game and it bodes well for them for the upcoming season.

3) For the single-best goalie prospect, I’ve seen no reason not to pick Yaroslav Askarov.  He has been highly touted for quite some time now and while he’s in for a rough year in San Jose this season, I think he can still be a franchise netminder.  But you said prospects, as in plural.  The Sharks would still be up there with Joshua Ravensbergen getting added in the draft but I might lean ever so slightly to the Red Wings who are headlined by Trey Augustine and Sebastian Cossa.  Cossa is coming along well in the minors while Augustine has been a strong NCAA goalie with a solid showing internationally as well.  Michal Pradel was one of the better goalies in this draft class and he’s in the mix too.  Goaltending has been an issue for Detroit for a while but the future looks bright there.

4) I’m going to pick Spencer Knight in Chicago.  This is his first season as being an undisputed number one goalie and he’s still relatively unproven with fewer than 100 appearances in the NHL.  It’s also a contract year in which he’ll be looking to cement the notion that he is their starter of the future.  I don’t think the Blackhawks will be particularly good this year but I expect Knight to steal some games and make the team a lot more competitive night in and night out than they have been the last couple of years.  I think that will qualify as finding that extra gear.

VonBrewski: Again with Boston….no direction by MGT.

They have the draft capital to go and get a McTavish or Rossi. They might need to move some salary (hello, Korpisalo) to get it done.

I think you’re making an incorrect assumption on this one.  Boston’s draft capital is better than what it was but assuming you don’t want them moving their own first-round picks, having an extra Toronto and Florida first-rounder isn’t good enough to be the foundation of an offer for either player, at least one that Anaheim or Minnesota might be inclined to take.  And with $2MM in cap space per PuckPedia, it would take much more than clearing Joonas Korpisalo’s $3MM to afford the players on the deals they’re looking for.  They’re not willingly signing long-term deals around the $5MM mark.

Let’s look at each situation a little closer.  Despite plenty of speculation, there remains no credible reporting that Anaheim has the slightest bit of interest in moving Mason McTavish or that McTavish is looking to be traded.  The absence of a contract isn’t evidence of that but rather the reality that an offer sheet isn’t coming and with no arbitration rights, it becomes a staring contest.  We see it every year with several players and they all wind up re-signing.  The Ducks have been active this summer in terms of trying to upgrade their roster with the hopes of making the playoffs.  They also have one of the deepest prospect pools in the NHL.  Accordingly, moving McTavish for a futures-based return doesn’t make much sense on either front.  If he’s moving, they’re getting a young core player back; they have no reason to accept less.

As for Marco Rossi, it has been reported that the Wild already declined a trade package that included a late-lottery first-round pick and that was before the few decent free agent center options had all re-signed or signed elsewhere.  So, why would they go that route now with a package that’s probably going to have a lesser pick going the other way?  (Again, assuming that you’re not suggesting the Bruins move their own first-round selections.)  Minnesota has been consistent in feeling that if they were to move Rossi, they’d want an impact center coming the other way if they couldn’t land one in free agency.  I don’t see a Boston middleman that fits.  Elias Lindholm’s contract isn’t great, Pavel Zacha only has two years left, and the rest are either unproven or are more bottom-six pieces.  For what they’re believed to be looking for in a possible trade for Rossi, I don’t think the Bruins are a match.  Ultimately, it’s going to be a staring contest between Rossi and the Wild for a little while longer before Minnesota probably gets its way with a bridge deal.

Dale M: How many August 15th expiring rights were either signed, or set adrift by their drafted teams?

Did Boston sign anybody?

If we look at our list of August 15th free agents from early July, not a lot has changed.  Chase McLane (Nashville) and Ryder Donovan (Vegas) remain with their respective organizations under technicalities but neither of them would qualify as notable prospects at this stage.  The other 29 players all saw their NHL rights lapse yesterday.

At this point, no one has signed yet which isn’t much surprise.  Players technically didn’t become free to sign until today and, well, it’s a Saturday in the middle of August; it’s not exactly a prime day for transactions.  There isn’t going to be flood of signings.  Honestly, I’m not sure there are going to be many signings period from this group, especially around half of them are on minor-league deals already.

There’s basically one headliner from this list that feels like a safe bet to land an NHL contract and that’s Dominic James.  He spurned an offer from Chicago on the heels of a 14-goal, 30-point campaign with the University of Minnesota-Duluth and his doing so suggests he thinks he can find an entry-level pact from a team with possibly a better shot at getting to the NHL quicker.  Beyond that, there are some possible AHL deal candidates (Red Savage and Aidan Hreschuk) but not much more.  It’s not a great group of players to get too excited about.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

August 14, 2025 at 7:30 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 18 Comments

We are effectively near the midway point of the NHL’s summer season.  Free agency has slowed down with teams looking for bargains while the last few players of note are holding out hope that a team will improve their offer or find a way to make a trade to open up extra cap space.  Meanwhile, the trade market has stayed cool but that could change at any time.

So, with a general lull in the summer period, it’s a good time to reopen the mailbag to talk about what has happened and what could still be coming.  Our last call for questions saw enough submissions to fill three columns.  The first included discussion about Bowen Byram’s future in Buffalo, the state of goaltending, and the K’Andre Miller trade.  Topics in the second included Washington’s potential forward logjam, tanking in professional sports, and the best and worst summers so far.  Lastly, the third covered what’s next for Montreal, why the Devils haven’t been able to clear Ondrej Palat’s deal, contenders for the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, and more.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

18 comments

PHR Mailbag: Trade Market, Johansen, Canadiens, Offseason Moves, Palat, Centers, Red Wings, McKenna

July 28, 2025 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 13 Comments

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include good and bad moves from this summer’s spending spree, possible contenders for the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

RPIsFinest: Teams like the Leafs and Rangers seemed pretty open about the need for big changes this summer. Is this what they had in mind? Or are bigger moves coming? Or has the fact that a lot of the top UFAs opted to stay put hampered their plans?

Now that the FA market has come and gone, do we see teams making some big trades to revamp their rosters or stand pat?

I think the lack of impact talent to actually reach the open market really limited some planning.  I suspect Toronto might have preferred to add a top-six piece to replace Mitch Marner but flipped to adding better depth to their roster which I suspect was their Plan B all along.  For the Rangers, they moved out two key pieces in Chris Kreider and K’Andre Miller while adding Vladislav Gavrikov.  Coupled with some of the trades from last season including bringing in J.T. Miller, I think they’ve done the bulk of their big changes.  In general though, I suspect more teams had bigger things in mind than they were able to do.

I’ve seen speculation saying that the trade market is going to be more robust than normal in the next few weeks and some saying that the bigger moves might come in-season but earlier than the market typically heats up.  I agree more with the latter.  We’re at the point of summer where the big player-for-player swap usually doesn’t happen as teams tend to lean more toward keeping the one that they’re familiar with.  But if things don’t get off to a great start 20 games in or so, they might be more inclined to try the shakeup.

Da Hammerer: What has come of the situation between the Flyers and Ryan Johansen? A friend implied he read an article or tweet the grievance was squashed, but I’ve been unsuccessful in finding anything beyond the announcement of the grievance hearing that was scheduled. Of all the articles I’ve read about their cap and dead cap hits, none mentioned any impact from Johansen’s contract situation.

There’s not much out there about this situation.  They’ve gone ahead and held the hearing but the results were never revealed.  Whether that means there was a settlement reached or the outcome is still pending remains to be seen.  I suspect there’s a good chance we won’t hear about it either.

As for the cap implications, let’s start with the easy one first.  Nashville also received cap relief from the Johansen contract termination but they operated so far below the salary cap all season long that even if the cap hit got retroactively reapplied, they’d still be under last year’s $88MM ceiling.  So, for the Predators, they’re fine.

The Flyers are a little harder to pin down given that some of the daily tracking is done behind paywalls so I don’t have a precise end-of-season number for them.  And what is available has a bit of variance.  CapWages had their finishing space at $8.99MM but that included the LTIR pool for Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM); back that out and they’re at $2.74MM.  PuckPedia had them around $2.65M in mid-March so there’s a rough range to work with.  But Matvei Michkov’s $1MM in earned ‘A’ bonuses need to be deducted from that pool.  Accordingly, if Johansen’s cap charge was retroactively applied to last season, there would be around a $2.4MM overage or so applied to the upcoming season.  That would push the Flyers into using LTIR as things stand, meaning that any earned bonuses in 2025-26 would then hit the cap in 2026-27.  So, there’s some murkiness about their situation but given how quiet things have been in this case, I don’t expect it will come to that.

KS Habs: Any further moves by Kent Hughes and the Canadiens? I know they have looked into a 2nd Line wing or center but there is not a lot on the market. Is there a chance Rossi, McTavish head back to the Habs or do they like try with Kirby Dach at center again? A second question is what do you think a Lane Hutson contract extension would look like? 8 x $10? Thanks!

By all accounts, the Canadiens don’t appear to be seriously pursuing Marco Rossi at this time which, given their need and desire to upgrade down the middle, is a little telling.  As for Mason McTavish, I’m sure they’re interested in him but I’m not sure why Anaheim would look into moving him.  The absence of a contract for him isn’t really an indication that he’s available, it’s just what happens with a lot of younger talents coming off entry-level deals without arbitration rights; these situations can often drag on.  But if he were to become available, I’m sure Montreal would make a serious push.  But at this point, I expect they will head to training camp with the centers they have which means Dach getting another look down the middle.

As for Hutson, I took a look at some comparables for him a couple of months back and not much has changed since then with only one more to add to that range, his new teammate.  Your proposal falls within the range of those comparable players and in this marketplace with the salary cap set to jump a couple more times, it’s not crazy even though it’s a sky-high number for someone who has all of one season under his belt.  But I don’t think Montreal would make that offer right now.  When they just gave Noah Dobson, a player with a 70-point season under his belt and a longer track record, $9.5MM per season for eight years, it feels like they wouldn’t go higher for that on Hutson.  It’s notable that only two seasons of Dobson’s deal were UFA years while Hutson has five in his.  So, right now, I think their internal cap for a Hutson contract comes in below that.

Schwa: When we look back in a couple of years, who will we look at as being the best/worst deals (for signings and/or trades)?

You haven’t specified which period to cover for these signings and trades so I’m going to operate as if you’re asking about the recent dealings and contracts from this offseason.

For the best moves, I have some that might be surprising.  Giving Jake Allen five years when he’s about to turn 35 is crazy in theory but they got him so far below market value (he likely would have landed more than double his $1.8MM AAV) on the open market that the risk is mitigated.  Yes, there’s a chance that he might have to be waived and buried in the minors by the end (at which point, the dead cap charge would be less than $500K) but there’s so much surplus value in the first few years that it should work out well.  I also liked the Aaron Ekblad contract with Florida.  Again, it might be problematic at the end but he’s still a solid number two option and should be for several more years and that’s a price that’s well below current market value.  He left a good chunk of money on the table to stay with the Panthers.  As for a trade, I’ll pick Matias Maccelli to Toronto for a conditional third-round pick.  If he goes back to being a legitimate top-six piece as he was in the final year in Arizona, that’s a small price to pay (even if it’s elevated to a second rounder) for a top-six piece with some team control.

On the flip side, I have another Florida contract on the worst list, that being Brad Marchand’s six-year deal worth $5.25MM per season.  If he’s a top-six player, $5.25MM is fine.  But he wasn’t a top-six player with the Panthers and that isn’t going to change unless injuries arise.  So now, you have a high-priced third-liner signed until he’s 43.  I get trying to keep the band together but that could be a problem contract early and often.  The other one that comes to mind covers a signing and trade, that being Nashville sending Jeremy Lauzon and Colton Sissons (with 50% salary retention) to Vegas for Nicolas Hague.  From a value perspective, that wasn’t a great deal for the Predators on its face but add in four years at $5.5MM to a player who has largely been on the third pairing and it goes from bad to worse.  I think Hague is a useful defender but to overpay in cost and contract on a team that doesn’t seem particularly close to a playoff spot seemed largely unnecessary.

DevilShark: Would the Sharks (or Hawks) do a solid to the Devils and pick up Palat like they did with Goodrow? Depth wing, good mentor. They still have issues with the cap floor too… I’m surprised a solution hasn’t materialized here for NJD.

There are a few things that make an Ondrej Palat trade to those teams less likely.  The first is the two years remaining on his contract.  Both San Jose and Chicago have taken on more than a one-year deal but I don’t think it’s something they want to do a lot of.  Also, both teams are already comfortably above the cap ceiling for next season so that’s not a factor as well.

The second is Palat’s 10-team no-trade clause.  It’s quite possible (if not probable) that he has those two teams and some other lower teams in the standings on his list to prevent the type of trade you’re hoping for from actually happening.  Most top teams won’t accept a multi-year cap dump so stack the no-trade list with the teams at the bottom of the standings and he should be protected.  And if you’re thinking about merely waiving him as the Rangers did with Barclay Goodrow, his no-move protection is basically a no-waivers clause so that’s not on the table.

The third is the money.  Goodrow carries a $3.64MM cap charge.  Andre Burakovsky is at $5.5MM for two years but Chicago got to offload the final year of Joe Veleno’s contract which has to be factored in.  Palat’s older than both of them and at $6MM, he costs more too.  That also means he’ll cost more to be offloaded as in New Jersey will need to attach an asset or burn a retention slot to move him, something they probably don’t want to do.  I’m not shocked a move hasn’t materialized for the Devils as this is a harder sell given the cost of the contract.

SkidRowe: Could you please compare and contrast Connor Bedard and James Hagens?

I can try but as I’ve noted before, scouting is not necessarily my strong suit.

Offensively, both are strong skaters but their main skill is different.  For Bedard, he’s an elite shooter and while he’s not a bad playmaker by any stretch (over time, with better linemates, I think we’ll see that part of his game improve), his shot is his high-end threat.  With Hagens, his passing is his standout skill.  If you’re looking for the more cerebral player, it’s Hagens with Bedard being the bigger game-breaker.

Defensively, it’s a little harder to compare, largely because Bedard hasn’t been in a spot to evaluate that.  In junior, he was the go-to player who had the green light to cheat a bit defensively while in the NHL, he’s basically had that same role with Chicago more focused on lottery odds than winning games.  Over time as they get more competitive, it’ll be interesting to see how that side of his game evolves.  With Hagens, while he’s more of an offense-first player (most top forward prospects are), he has adapted well enough to the college game at that end and showed improvement with his defensive reads. He might not be a true two-way threat but Hagens showed that he shouldn’t be a big liability at that end of the ice.

The other element to compare is positional.  Bedard is undersized for a center and while he has been force-fed big minutes down the middle early in his career, the early returns of handling the position haven’t been great.  Again, part of that is the sink-or-swim approach and a bad surrounding cast but there’s a case to be made that he might be better off on the wing.  Hagens is similarly undersized but profiles better as a center with his more cerebral game and at least some defensive conscientiousness.  He should stay at that position long-term while the more I see Bedard, the more I think the wing may make more sense for him.

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The Duke: Lightning Round II – Is there a race with Brossoit or is Knight the clear-cut starter? Who are Anaheim’s opening night Top-6? Is Rossi re-signed or moved out? And, is it Perfetti’s time to shine now that Ehlers is gone?

1) I’m honestly not sure Laurent Brossoit is on the NHL roster next season let alone battling Spencer Knight for playing time.  I expect Arvid Soderblom to be the backup and Brossoit at least starting out in Rockford to show he’s back in good form.  At that point, he might be movable with salary retention.  Knight is their starter for the long haul.

2) I think McTavish stays so you have him and Leo Carlsson down the middle.  I expect newcomer Mikael Granlund to end up on the wing while Chris Kreider will be in the top six as well.  Troy Terry should stay there while Cutter Gauthier showed enough down the stretch to also stay in the top-six.

3) Rossi’s case is going to take a while but I think he’s ultimately going to bite the bullet on a bridge deal.  The external interest doesn’t seem to be as strong as he was hoping for, meaning Minnesota isn’t going to get the type of return they want to move him.

4) That would be safe to say.  Jonathan Toews could be a good addition and Gustav Nyquist is serviceable but they don’t have the offensive upside to take on Nikolaj Ehlers’ share of the attack.  Cole Perfetti might not get there but they’re definitely counting on him having another gear to get to offensively.

rule78.1: The Red Wings had a couple of major issues last season. Their ability to score 5-on-5 and their penalty kill.  Do you see any improvement in these areas up to this point for this coming season after their signings?

Let’s look at the offensive moves.  They gave up Vladimir Tarasenko and added James van Riemsdyk and Mason Appleton.  On paper, that’s not a lot better although van Riemsdyk was much better than usual at five-on-five last season.  But generally, he’s more of a power play specialist (nearly 43% of his goals from 2020-21 through 2023-24 were on the man advantage) so I think the even strength production might drop.  At best, I think it’s a wash beyond hoping for some internal improvement and bounce backs.

Before digging into the second question, let’s review the defensive moves.  John Gibson is now the starting goalie and as a team that needed to make some defensive changes, they added Jacob Bernard-Docker to replace Jeff Petry.  I like the Bernard-Docker contract but that’s not a needle-mover.

But Gibson gives them a shot at improving shorthanded.  If we look at Goals Saved Above Expected (per MoneyPuck) at four-on-five, Cam Talbot was one of the worst goalies in the league at -7.1.  Alex Lyon was at -2.3 and Petr Mrazek was in that range, also including his time with Chicago.  Gibson was still in the negative but at -0.5 which is at least closer to average.  All else being equal (and given the skater group, it largely is), even average goaltending on the penalty kill will be an improvement.  Appleton has killed penalties in the past as well so he could help.  They’ve improved a bit here but it still could be one of the weaker units overall.

DevilShark: Where is McKenna getting drafted? Bottom few teams this year on paper?

I think Chicago has to be on this list.  A full season from Knight raises the floor and I feel Jeff Blashill will make them more competitive on a night-in, night-out basis.  But they’re a team that just wasn’t any good last year and while they have money to do so, they didn’t do much to add to their roster unless you think Burakovsky is in line to be a difference-maker.  It’s all part of the process but that process is going to involve another year of pain.

I’m tempted to put San Jose here as well.  They’ve been more active in terms of adding floor-raising veterans but their goaltending is a big question mark.  I like Yaroslav Askarov but is he going to be a difference-maker right away like Dustin Wolf was in Calgary or will there be the more typical ups and downs?  And with an up-and-down goalie like Alex Nedeljkovic as the backup, it’s a question mark.  I could see them in the bottom three with poor goaltending or closer to the back of the bottom ten if Askarov pans out.

As things stand today, Pittsburgh would be a tough one to pick here but I don’t think they’re done subtracting from their roster just yet.  It seems like GM Kyle Dubas finally has the green light to take a step or two back so I think at some point, another move or two is made that sees them move an impactful win-now piece for some future assets.  That might be enough to sneak them to the bottom of the East and sneak into the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes.

Photo courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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PHR Mailbag: Capitals, Sharks, Hamilton, Tanking, Bruins, Maple Leafs, Summer Winners And Losers

July 20, 2025 at 7:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include assessing San Jose’s busy last few weeks, early offseason winners and losers, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while we have one more to run from our last callout for questions next weekend.

letsgonats: The Capitals seemed to come in second place for the Ehlers sweepstakes. If McMichael moves to 3C, who is the 2nd line LW and 3rd line RW? It seems that the Caps trade a lot for Sourdif so he is given a 4th line winger slot. Do the Caps pull a trade we are not thinking about or do they take two from Beauvillier, Frank, Milano, Miroshnichenko, Cristall, Trineyev, or Lapierre and only a few have AHL options so waiver or trades for the others?

Before I answer your scenario, I’m going to throw another one out there.  What if they flip McMichael and Pierre-Luc Dubois, a player who has played on the wing before?  I could see them giving that a shot at some point as well, keeping both players in the top six.  In your McMichael as the third-line center scenario, I think Ryan Leonard is on the right wing, allowing them to continue to ease him in.  Right now, I think Anthony Beauvillier gets the spot on the second line to start at least.  In a perfect world, a youngster forces his way into that spot but better to be conservative in early forecasting.  And I agree on Justin Sourdif; at a minimum, he’s on the fourth line with Nic Dowd and Brandon Duhaime.

I don’t see Ivan Miroshnichenko or Bogdan Trineyev realistically pushing for a roster spot.  The former is waiver-exempt while the latter will need waivers.  Hendrix Lapierre makes it since he’s waiver-eligible and won’t get through without being claimed.  I’d have him as the 13th forward which isn’t ideal development-wise.  It wouldn’t shock me if Sonny Milano and Andrew Cristall are battling for the 3LW spot.  If Cristall is ready, Milano lands on waivers and if not, he starts in Hershey.  That leaves Ethen Frank who I think they’d be comfortable keeping as the 14th forward, something they can afford with their current cap space.  That would push Dylan McIlrath to waivers but he has cleared several times before and should again.

With some waiver-exempt pieces, there isn’t as much of a logjam as it might seem.  Honestly, I could see them sniffing around on another forward should one become available and if that pushes Frank to waivers, I think they’d be okay with that.

SirCobblestone: With the addition of the Sharks on defense (even if it’s not done I assume) and the potential add of Misa with Dickinson and Askarov, where do you see the Sharks land with a top six composed of Celebrini, Misa, Smith, and Eklund at Wing and Toffoli with Orlov and Klingberg. That should be a good add on defense.

You’re missing a top-six forward in there which I imagine will be Alexander Wennberg, at least until he’s traded as a rental center at some point in the season, allowing one of Will Smith or Michael Misa to get some time in at their natural position.  That group has a lot of upside but teams with that many youngsters in prominent roles are going to struggle.  There’s just no way around that with four entry-level forwards in the top six.

As for the defense, it has definitely improved with the additions of Dmitry Orlov, Nick Leddy, and John Klingberg but that’s a low bar to clear as San Jose’s back end was really bad last year.  The problem is that it’s still not very good.  Klingberg is a question mark defensively and Leddy is coming off a really rough year.  Orlov is overpaid but decent at least.  If Sam Dickinson is added to this group (they’re going to need to move out more than just Henry Thrun for that to happen), there will be some growing pains defensively although he’d give them a big lift offensively with Klingberg.  This is the definition of a patchwork back end; of the seven they have signed now on one-way deals, only one (Orlov) is signed beyond this season.  It’s better but this is still not a playoff-worthy group.

As for the goaltending, Yaroslav Askarov is the big wild card.  Like many, I have high expectations for him over the long haul but for the upcoming season, there are going to be some growing pains as he adjusts to being the starter at the NHL level for the first time while playing behind a defense that still isn’t particularly strong.  Alex Nedeljkovic is a serviceable backup but I expect his numbers to nosedive next season given the situation.

So, where do I see San Jose next season?  Probably in the same spot where they were last season, in the basement of the Pacific Division.  Things are definitely looking up and they’re not going to be down there for much longer but this is going to be another season where process and development are more important than results.  They’re not ready to emerge from the rebuild yet and their activity this summer suggests GM Mike Grier is fully aware of that.

SpeakOfTheDevils: Let’s play hypothetical and say the Devils DO trade Dougie Hamilton, what kind of return could we be looking at??? And likeliest trading partners????

I’m going to go with the second question first here.  I could see Toronto being in there as they could use a top offensive threat.  Detroit has done next to nothing to improve a back end that certainly struggled last year so they’d be in the mix I’d think.  I’m sure Dallas would love to swing that but the term remaining would be an option; I think they’re more of a fit for Erik Karlsson if Pittsburgh pays down a good chunk of his deal.  Buffalo has been searching for an impact right-shot defender for ages now but it would surprise me if he’s on Hamilton’s list of 10 teams he’d accept a trade to.

Several teams can afford him but at the stage of the rebuild they’re in, they’re probably not a good fit.  Others like Calgary and Winnipeg don’t seem like teams on his trade list either.  And this is the problem; between Hamilton’s trade protection, cap hit, and performance, there’s not a great market for his services.  I don’t even think Detroit would be on his yes list so we’re down to Toronto and if New Jersey wants to pay down some of the contract, maybe Dallas.

So, the short answer to your question in terms of a return is nothing that would justify trading Hamilton.  If Pittsburgh trades Karlsson, they’ll be able to get positive value but probably nothing of consequence.  Salary ballast, maybe a second-round pick, and perhaps something else.  That’s something, but nothing to get excited about.  Is Hamilton going to be able to bring back more that with three years left on his deal?  Maybe if it’s more of a player-for-player straight-up swap (if Morgan Rielly was willing to waive his trade protection, maybe there’s a foundation of a trade there) but otherwise, I wouldn’t be counting on it.  So, something around what I think Karlsson would get would be my answer to the first question.

Hamilton managed to be healthier last season but also dropped below 20 minutes a night which, for a $9MM blueliner, is a little concerning.  With Johnathan Kovacevic out for a bit to start the season, I don’t expect them to seriously consider trading him.  The Devils want to stay in the playoffs and Hamilton is a better insurance policy than whatever bits and pieces they could get in a trade.

tucsontoro1: Is it time for the league to do something substantial about tanking?

The Blackhawks are clearly in “full tank mode” for the 25–26 season.

Let me answer your question with a question – how would the league do that?  The NHL has already lowered the draft odds and it hasn’t served as a deterrent.  They’ve also put in something saying a team can’t advance their pick in the lottery more than twice in five years, a change that hasn’t garnered much attention yet since it hasn’t come into play.

The NBA gives equal odds for the bottom three finishers (and fourth is only a bit lower) but that didn’t stop teams from tanking for Cooper Flagg.  And the end result for two drafts now has been a team with odds of 3% or less jumping up to the top spot (Dallas from 11th to take Flagg and Atlanta from 10th to take Zaccharie Risacher).  Will that stop teams from tanking in basketball next season?  Probably not.

MLB started drawing for the first six selections back in 2023 instead of going by reverse standings while also putting some restrictions on teams drafting in the lottery back-to-back times.  Did that stop the Athletics from tanking for three straight years?  Nope, even though they were slotted 11th in last week’s draft as a result of the rule changes.  The White Sox were terrible last year but knew going in that they couldn’t pick in the lottery even if they had the worst record; clearly, it wasn’t a deterrent that prevented them from tanking.  Meanwhile, there are some overtly tanking teams there this season too (including the White Sox again, no less).  And the NFL still goes by reverse standings with teams already seemingly jockeying themselves for first overall.

Sure, the NHL could flatten the odds more or put more restrictions on picking in the top five, for example.  But in the grand scheme of things, if that happened, does anyone think Chicago or San Jose would change course?  In a system where top young talents are distributed through a draft system, teams are going to try to position themselves to have the best chance at getting one of those if they know they’re not in a spot to realistically contend for a playoff spot.  This strategy, one that exists in each of the big four professional sports, isn’t going anywhere.

SkidRowe: What can the Bruins do? They need scoring and have only $2 million in cap space. Would you trade Zacha, Poitras, Mittelstadt, Minten, or Korpisalo?

I’m going to say no to trading Matthew Poitras or Fraser Minten.  Might they fetch a capable veteran to help in the short term?  I think they would.  But they’re not going to bring back enough of a difference-maker to materially improve Boston’s fortunes.  These are young centers with some promise and that’s the type of player they need to be keeping around as longer-term fits.

If Boston is confident that Michael DiPietro can be a capable NHL backup, moving Joonas Korpisalo makes sense in theory.  Jeremy Swayman can probably handle a similar workload to last season, meaning DiPietro would only need to make 25 starts or so.  The question here, however, is what market is there for a goalie right now, especially one with a cap charge of $3MM (not including the $1MM Ottawa is covering)?  He could fit in Edmonton but they can’t afford him.  Same with Vegas.  Maybe Carolina but is he demonstrably better than their tandem?  I like the idea of trading Korpisalo more than the potential of it actually happening but if it did, that’s something they could reinvest into their offense.

The other two are a little more interesting.  Casey Mittelstadt isn’t a rental, he has a track record of some offensive success, and he’s a center.  Given the immense demand for capable middlemen right now, I think there would be a good market for him.  On the other hand, Boston’s center depth isn’t great and I’d like to see how he fares under new head coach Marco Sturm first.  If the new system helps get him going, he could be more of a potential longer-term fit.

If Boston is comfortable with deploying one of the two young centers on a regular basis (or playing one of Sean Kuraly or Mikey Eyssimont on the third line), Pavel Zacha could be expendable.  At $4.75MM, he’s someone some teams can afford and while he’s coming off a quieter year, 47 points is still decent; it was good enough for a share of third in team scoring.  But it begs the question of why Boston, a team that needs firepower, would move one of their better point-getters from a year ago?  Maybe if there’s a winger that’s signed or controllable for longer than Zacha (a pending UFA), there’s a lateral swap to be made but otherwise, I’d reassess closer to the trade deadline.

Despite Boston’s spending spree this summer, I don’t think they’ve done enough to get back to the playoff picture.  Moving one of those pieces for a bit more firepower on the wing isn’t going to change that.  So, personally, I wouldn’t be making any win-now trades unless this group proves me wrong and shows it’s worthy of some moves to help them in the second half of the season.  Otherwise, Zacha could be a very useful rental for someone, yielding the Bruins a nice future asset in return.

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Pearlo: Do you think Toronto is sort of mailing it in this year with the prospect of McDavid being available next year?

By all accounts, Connor McDavid wants to see Edmonton put its best foot forward to show that they’re worth re-signing with, even as a team that just made it to the Stanley Cup Final for two years.  For any team, Toronto or otherwise, to sandbag a summer’s worth of activity and not put their best foot forward to try to win seems counterintuitive, doesn’t it?  Yes, he’s a GTA native so there will be some speculative dot connecting but honestly, I don’t think the odds are all that high that McDavid would leave Edmonton.  And if he did, there would be a lot of suitors for him.

Between those two factors, what are the odds that he’d sign with Toronto?  I’d peg McDavid testing free agency at 10% and some other prominent teams will be interested so best case might be 5%?  I can’t see GM Brad Treliving mailing in an offseason’s worth of activity for a one-in-20 shot (on the optimistic side) of getting McDavid.

I’m not a big fan of Toronto’s offseason activity (it’s hard to be when you lose a top talent in Mitch Marner) but I don’t think they’re mailing it in either.  Treliving spoke of changing the team’s DNA after the season and it looks like there’s a focus on getting some better defensive players and deepening the depth along the way.  They won’t be as much of a high-octane attack moving forward but they’re shifting toward a playing style that might serve them better in the playoffs where they have to get through Florida at some point in the first two rounds.  That’s not necessarily mailing it in, that’s just a shift in team philosophy.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Not counting the Panthers, which team do you think has had the best offseason to date (noting it’s early) and which team have you been disappointed with so far?

I really like what Utah has done.  They took advantage of their stockpile of young depth to get JJ Peterka from Buffalo, a legitimate top-line scoring threat and then signed him for $7.7MM per season, a price tag that is fair market value now and should flip to team-friendly before long.  Brandon Tanev gives them some more grit in the bottom six and someone who can help on the penalty kill, Nate Schmidt is a stable defender to help stabilize their bottom pairing, and Vitek Vanecek gives them some goalie insurance with the uncertainty surrounding Connor Ingram.  They didn’t lose too much of consequence and their young core looks poised to continue to improve while getting a shot in the arm with Peterka.  Montreal would also be in that territory of a strong offseason, adding Noah Dobson and Zach Bolduc, two players they’re hoping become part of their long-term core while not losing anyone from that core to do so.

There are three teams that come to mind in the disappointing category for two different reasons.  The Kings had lots of cap space to play with but couldn’t land anyone of much consequence, instead spreading their money on decent but largely overpriced depth veterans while losing one of their top blueliners in Vladislav Gavrikov.  They’re a deeper team now but are they better for all they spent?  Needing to ask that puts them in this spot.  Boston’s in the same boat.  For a team that can’t score, giving Tanner Jeannot five years at $3.2MM and adding a pair of fourth-line centers in Mikey Eyssimont and Sean Kuraly for $3.3MM combined seems like a bit of an odd way to fix that.  I liked the Viktor Arvidsson addition and think he’ll bounce back but I’d have rather seen them add another top-six type of player than focus on adding more physicality.  That would have been a more useful way to use those funds.

The other disappointment is Columbus for their relative inaction.  Yes, Ivan Provorov got an eye-popping deal but after striking out on Dobson, they didn’t have much of a choice with the dearth of blueliners available.  They’re not noted here because of that.  They’re noted here because they haven’t done much else.  They gave up a good prospect to take on a struggling Charlie Coyle and a long-term overpayment in Miles Wood and, well, that’s about it so far.  They’ve tried to make a bigger splash but came up short.  For a team that just missed the playoffs last season though, they haven’t done enough to truly improve their chances.

Photo courtesy of Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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PHR Mailbag: Maple Leafs, Miller, Byram, Tuch, Goaltending

July 12, 2025 at 2:51 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Carolina’s acquisition of K’Andre Miller, the Bowen Byram situation in Buffalo, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in one of our next two mailbag columns.

MoneyBallJustWorks: I imagine the Maple Leafs aren’t done tinkering with their lineup. What do you see as the next move for this team and do you think they are a tougher team to play against today than they were at the end of last year?

Technically, it turns out that the next move was them finding a taker for Ryan Reaves with them getting Henry Thrun from San Jose for him.  Maybe Thrun makes the team as a seventh or eighth defenseman, maybe he winds up on waivers.  But with Reaves set to count for $200K against the cap had he been back with the AHL’s Marlies (he makes $1.35MM and the maximum buriable amount is $1.15MM), they at least saved a bit of cap space.

I think there’s some smoke to the Jack Roslovic speculation.  He was recently connected to Toronto and while the talk of reconnecting with Auston Matthews seems a bit overblown, I think there’s a fit.  The Maple Leafs feel like a team that’s going to shake up the lines a bit more next season so having some players who can move up and down in the lineup with some positional flexibility makes sense.  A short-term deal with him that gives him a soft landing and allows Toronto to keep its options open soon after feels like a reasonable move to make.

As for being tougher to play against, it depends on what you mean by tougher.  If you mean are they more physical, maybe.  Nicolas Roy isn’t overly physical but he plays more of a heavy game than Mitch Marner.  Matias Maccelli is one of the least physical players in the league so if you say he takes Pontus Holmberg’s spot on the roster (not in terms of line placement), that might offset any physicality gain from Marner to Roy.  But if you mean more difficult to play against, no.  I like Roy and Maccelli but that’s a big drop in talent compared to Marner.  If I’m an opposing coach, one less star player to gameplan against means they’re probably less difficult of an opponent (but still a strong team in general).

William 12: Is K’Andre Miller worth the price Carolina paid to get him? Also, who is your pick for best sneaky good/under-the-radar trade or free agency acquisition so far this offseason?

If Carolina can get Miller to settle down a bit defensively, he should be.  He is already a top-four defender who has shown flashes of being closer to a number two option at his best.  In this market, $7.5MM for a player with that ceiling isn’t bad, if, again, he becomes more reliable in his own end.

In terms of the trade cost, it would have cost them a first, a second, and a third had they offered $7.5MM on an offer sheet.  They’d have been capped at offering six years at that price as well.  The maximum denominator for an offer sheet is five years so a six-year offer would have been $45MM divided by five or $9MM for offer sheet purposes, keeping them just inside that threshold.  Was it worth parting with Scott Morrow to get two more years on the contract?  If they’re convinced that Miller can be the player they think he can be, I’d say yes.  Meanwhile, New York is probably quite pleased with the return as well.

I think Brent Burns to Colorado is a signing that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention.  Yes, he’s slowing down but he can still play on a second pairing and be a secondary contributor offensively.  With a bonus-laden structure, the contract gives the Avs extra flexibility to add another piece at some point either this summer or in-season and they’ll just have to absorb the bonus hit in 2026-27, cutting into their spending room then.  But when you’re in win-now mode, adding that good of a player for a $1MM base salary is pretty good.

Now, if you’re looking for someone more under the radar than that, I’ll nominate Jakob Pelletier.  He signed a three-year, minimum-salary deal with Tampa Bay with an AAV that will ultimately rise each year thanks to the pending increases to the minimum salary with the CBA extension.  He did pretty well in a bottom-six role last season in 49 games and has a track record of success at the lower levels.  He brings more upside to Tampa’s bottom line than they’ve had in recent years at as low a price tag as possible.  For a no-risk move, there’s some upside to it.

12Kelly: Now that Adams has filed arbitration on Byram, does that hamper any trade the Sabres were working on? I am very disappointed in our GM and I think we will end up keeping Byram as an unhappy player and go through this next year. Why can’t Adams make a good trade, especially since the Blues are really interested in Byram? Another year of missing the playoffs is on the horizon.

In the immediate term, Buffalo’s decision to take Bowen Byram to arbitration doesn’t necessarily hamper any trade talks.  If there’s a team out there – St. Louis or otherwise – who wants him, they can swing a trade and try to sign him before the arbitration hearing which will be scheduled between July 20th and August 4th.  If the hearing is more toward the back of that range, there’s still upwards of three weeks to work something out.  That’s still ample time, especially if the acquiring team has a good indication of Byram’s asking price already.

But once things get closer to the hearing, then it’s going to hamper talks.  Because the Sabres were the team to file against Byram, Byram gets to pick the term of the contract – either one or two years.  The latter would walk him right to UFA eligibility at the age of 26 so that definitely is going to be a temptation.  Once they get to the point of starting the hearing, that’s it and if Byram does pick the two-year deal, his trade value is going to dip as there won’t be the ability to work out a long-term agreement as part of the swap.  Suffice it to say, there’s a firm clock now and it’s definitely running.

The decision to take him to arbitration was to take the threat of an offer sheet off the table, one that would have secured Buffalo only draft-pick compensation.  And at this point, it feels like some of the suitors are preferring to go with futures-based offers which is what GM Kevyn Adams doesn’t want as his goal is to get the Sabres back to the playoffs.  That’s a goal that already seems unlikely and without Byram, it would be even tougher.  The decision to take the offer sheet option off the table hedges against that happening but it cranks up the pressure.

ljfranker: What would the Blues have to pay for Byram? Is Jiricek, Stenberg, and offer sheet compensation reasonable?

haubrick: Do the Blues ultimately pull off a trade for Bowen Byram?

Let’s put the St. Louis questions together here.  I assume the projected contract offer for Byram is in the $7.02MM to $9.36MM tier which carries a return of a first-round pick, a second rounder, and a third rounder.  That plus two first-round prospects in Adam Jiricek and Otto Stenberg feels like quite the overpayment.  That’s more than what Montreal gave up for Noah Dobson who is a more proven player.  And yet, I don’t think Buffalo would say yes to that even though the offer would be in their favor.

As noted above, the Sabres aren’t thinking about rebuilding.  They’re banking on this group taking a step or two forward and getting into the mix for a Wild Card spot this season.  While it’s fair to question whether that’s the right approach, achieving that goal would be much harder by taking out a top-four defender and replacing him with a bunch of future assets that aren’t NHL-ready yet.

For St. Louis or any other team to get Byram in a trade, there has to be a key core player coming back to get Buffalo at least more open to the idea of moving him.  Think Jake Neighbours, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, or even Jordan Kyrou who has popped up in trade speculation although he has a no-move clause that could scuttle that thought in a hurry.  If they want to avoid dipping into Torey Krug’s LTIR pool, they’ll basically need to match whatever they give Byram in terms of outgoing salaries which could add another player or two to the swap as well.  I’m not sure the Blues are willing to part with that core piece (making it a change to the core, not a true addition) which is why I’m skeptical that they can get this over the finish line.

Dan from Buffalo: Lifelong Sabres fan, I’m 100% hoping we re-sign Alex Tuch at some point this offseason. I know he’s due for a nice raise from his current deal, should I be worried the longer the summer goes with no news?

I wouldn’t be worried if the summer comes and goes without an extension.  While some players move quickly to sign contract extensions as soon as they’re eligible – we saw that with a few players on July 1st – many more haven’t yet.  And it’s a pretty prominent list of those eligible who haven’t, one that includes Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor, and Jack Eichel, among many others.  Those teams shouldn’t be worried yet so it’s not time to worry about Tuch just yet either.

At this point, it feels like players seem a bit more open to waiting things out and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the case with Tuch here.  I don’t question his stated desire to stick around but at the same time, I think he might want to see where things stand before putting pen to paper on a new contract.  If Buffalo winds up having a change of heart and moves Byram for futures or struggles out of the gate in the first half, leaving Adams to seriously start to ponder another rebuild, Tuch’s enthusiasm for sticking around for the long haul might be tempered.

If Tuch remains unsigned a couple of weeks before the trade deadline, that’s when I’d start to get concerned from a Buffalo perspective.  While the Sabres re-signed a pair of pending UFAs close to the deadline back in March, there’s a big talent difference between Tuch versus Jason Zucker and Jordan Greenway.  Those two wouldn’t yield the type of impactful future-based return that Tuch would, one that would be difficult for Adams to pass up at that point.  But for now, the fact that an extension hasn’t been signed less than two weeks after being eligible isn’t too concerning.

PyramidHeadcrab: Is there a goaltending shortage in the NHL? It seems like quite a few teams are searching for a true starter where none are available, with a large drop-off in quality after the top 20-25 netminders. This doesn’t seem to be an issue with other positions, though those positions typically take less time to cook.

If true, how could this problem be systematically rectified within the league? And considering the goalies in development and those yet to be drafted, does relief appear to be on the horizon?

It certainly feels like there’s a goaltending shortage in the NHL right now.  And there definitely is a drop-off quality-wise.  But I’m not sure there’s a big fix that can be made.

More teams appear to be navigating toward a lower-cost platoon system which means there isn’t necessarily a big differentiator between the starter and the backup goalie.  While top goalies like Igor Shesterkin can break the bank, I don’t think there are a ton of organizations who would be willing to go really high on a contract for a player that might only play in 70-75% of the games.

There’s also the matter of shooters being better.  I don’t know how many times I’ve caught myself when writing about a goalie’s save percentage, for example.  I might have something along the lines of so-and-so struggled with a SV% of just .902 before I remember that a mark just over .900 is now considered above average whereas a few years ago, it was below average.  A few years before that, if you could barely scrape above .900, you weren’t a guarantee to stay in the NHL.  Yes, some of that is a drop-off in the supply of good goalies but shooters now are better than they were not even a decade ago.

I suppose the fix could be to try to restrict some of the technological improvements for skaters or allow some equipment improvements for goalies but I doubt there’s much appetite for that beyond the goaltenders themselves wanting some extra help.

You could look at it from a grassroots perspective in that goaltender is the most expensive position for kids growing up.  But there’s no way around that and it’s not the NHL’s responsibility to be funneling money into youth hockey programs worldwide to offset the price of equipment so I don’t think there’s a fix there either.

I don’t expect things to change much moving forward.  There are a handful of above-average goalies in various prospect pools but certainly not an overwhelming amount that will eventually lead to a material improvement in goalie performance in the NHL.  Lots of the prospects out there carry the ceiling of a platoon netminder which, for a lot of organizations, isn’t viewed as a bad thing.

If I’m being honest, I don’t think the NHL truly considers this a problem.  For years, there were summits on how to increase goal scoring and now that this is happening, they’re probably pleased with that result.  There is still enough of a supply of higher-end starters that some teams have some flexibility in structuring their rosters (go for a true starter and a low-cost backup versus the more common 50/30 type of split) so it’s not a cookie-cutter situation in terms of roster-building.  Frankly, instead of it being a problem to solve, I suspect the NHL hopes that this is the new normal moving forward.

frozenaquatic: There was a discussion on r/hockey where we were talking about “best trades that benefited both teams.” There were a lot of obvious answers: Iginla for Nieuwendyk, ROR for Tage, RBA for Keith Primeau. But it got me thinking, what is the real answer to this question? We could only come up with one instance ALL-TIME where traded players won Cups with their new respective teams. STL trades Ian Cole to PIT for Robert Bortuzzo and a 2016 7th on March 2nd, 2015. Both Cole and Bortuzzo won cups with their new teams, both of them playing significant roles in the Cup run. Is this really the only case of this ever happening? Is this the greatest trade in NHL history?

Off-hand, I started looking through several seasons of old trades to see if I could spot one.  It served as a stark reminder about how a lot of trades wind up making very little of a difference in the long run but I couldn’t spot another one that met the criteria of both players winning a Stanley Cup with their new team.  I can’t sit here and say that’s the only instance of that happening – it easily could have back in the Original Six days (and I tried to look through some trades from those days to see if one popped) – but it has to be a pretty short list.

Does that make it the best trade in NHL history?  That’s one of those questions where the answer is in the eye of the beholder.  Was it ultimately a big win-win move (literally) for both sides?  It sure was.  But I suspect a lot of fans would have a different ‘best trade ever’ in mind.

Photo courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

July 11, 2025 at 1:51 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 47 Comments

It has been a busy few weeks across the NHL.  We have a repeat Stanley Cup champion, the draft has come and gone, and many players find themselves on new teams following some big trades and plenty of free agent signings with the bulk of the heavy lifting now finished on the offseason.

With that in mind, it’s a good time to reopen the mailbag.  Our last call for questions yielded enough topics for three columns.  The first discussed Connor Hellebuyck’s playoff struggles, Florida’s playoff proficiency, and more.  Topics in the second included an assessment of the Avalanche, ideal second center options for Montreal, and some offseason predictions.  The third included some talk about the Blackhawks, a Noah Dobson prediction (that didn’t quite hold up), and what Detroit needed to do this summer to have a successful offseason.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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PHR Mailbag: Tkachuk, Blackhawks, Dobson, Red Wings, Jets, Kings

June 8, 2025 at 8:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include talks on what Chicago and Detroit could try to do this offseason plus a center option for the Jets that they haven’t explored yet.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.

Gmm8811: What would it take for the Blues to pry Tkachuk away from Ottawa? Kyrou and what else?

The short answer would be an awful lot.  I don’t see any reason why the Senators would move Brady Tkachuk.  But if they did, they would want someone with some grit.  The power forward nature of his game is a big part of his value and with all due respect to Jordan Kyrou who is a strong player, that particular element is not in his toolbox.

The other challenge with Kyrou as the foundation is that his money basically matches Tkachuk’s.  This might seem a little odd as matching money is normally a good thing.  In a case of a player for a player plus some future assets, that’s normally perfect.  But Ottawa isn’t taking an add-on of a first-round pick and a prospect.  No, they would want some other NHL-established talent.

Jake Neighbours would have to be in there at a minimum as the power forward piece.  I would think they’d want another core piece from that age group, maybe Philip Broberg.  Remember, for a ‘unicorn’ type of player, the price has to really hurt.  But those two make over $8MM now (and will make much more than that in 2026-27).  To keep matching money, the Sens would then need to include or offload at least some of that money, possibly further increasing the ask.  And round and round we go to the point where it’s simply not feasible.

There is probably only a handful of players in the league that Ottawa would trade Tkachuk for.  The Sens are on the rise; trading your captain who plays a pivotal role as you’re just emerging from the rebuild is a tactic that is very unlikely to happen.  And if it did happen, they’d want a similar-value core piece back, not a package.  I don’t think there’s a buildable fit here.

tucsontoro1: Put on your Kyle Davidson hat for a minute.

Who do I target in FA?

Ekblad, Marner, Bennett?

Davidson opted to spread the money around last summer on short-term contracts for veterans to help raise the floor of the group and lead them through what was likely to be a turbulent season.  They didn’t do the former but it was indeed another turbulent season.  But that aside, there’s light at the end of the tunnel.  The prospect pool is well-stocked, a good group of youngsters is coming, and Jeff Blashill is a decent coach which is an upgrade on what they had last year.  Things are looking up.

This makes it the time for Davidson to strike.  They have nearly $30MM of cap space per PuckPedia with their only pricey RFA of note looking like a near-lock to be non-tendered (Philipp Kurashev).  The young core group will get a lot more expensive over time but even so, they have the financial flexibility to go and try to buy a core piece on the open market.  It will probably require an overpayment given that they’re probably still a bit away from coming out of the rebuild but when the acquisition cost is zero, it’s justifiable.

Basically, the easiest way to answer the question is this.  Is the free agent a core player and projects to be one for years to come?  If the answer is yes, the Blackhawks will probably be calling.

Of the three you listed, Mitch Marner feels like the most likely to potentially sign.  Chicago is a big market which he’s accustomed to but the spotlight won’t be on him as much in that market compared to Toronto.  Connor Bedard is a solid running mate to potentially partner with or have Marner be the catalyst of a second line to help elevate some of the up-and-coming core group.  There’s a compelling case to make although a lot of teams will have compelling cases to make if he reaches the open market next month.

tucsontoro1: With the Hawks having the second-worst GA this season, don’t they target at least one solid d-man in free agency?

In theory, yes.  The point from the last question applies to defensemen too.  If there’s a long-term core player out there, I expect Davidson to try to sign him.

How many core defenders are out there though?  Aaron Ekblad would be a good fit – they could turn around and flip Connor Murphy and have youngsters Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel apprentice behind him for a little while and then as Ekblad gets a bit older, move him down the depth chart.  But can they make the best pitch when there will undoubtedly be more win-now options available?  (This is a question that applies basically to any core guy.)

Ivan Provorov and Vladislav Gavrikov are solid on the left side.  Team one of them up with Alex Vlasic and that side of the back end definitely looks better.

But if we’re talking about key defenders that would move the needle in a real way, that’s about it.  The leading point-getter among UFA blueliners is Matt Grzelcyk.  Ryan Lindgren is coming off a quieter year but can be a fourth defender.  Cody Ceci, Brent Burns, and Dante Fabbro are the next-best options on the right side – a player who was moved in a salary cap dump less than a year ago, a 40-year-old, and a player who was on waivers after no one wanted to trade for him earlier in the season.  These are good, useful players, but I doubt it’s the caliber you were thinking of with this question.

I’m sure Davidson will try to add a key blueliner on the open market but it’s a pretty small pool to try to draw from.

breakaway: If the Islanders draft Schaefer, do they look to trade Dobson and what could they get in return for him?

I’ve seen this idea out there and while I can track the logic, I don’t really agree with it.  Adding Matthew Schaefer to the roster does not make Noah Dobson redundant.  This is not a roster full of puck-moving defensemen by any stretch.  Beyond Adam Boqvist who is more of a depth piece, Dobson is the only other proven one in that category they have with any sort of meaningful NHL experience.  He and Schaefer can absolutely co-exist, especially since they play separate sides of the ice.

I wonder if adding Schaefer might make them move one of their lefties, however.  Adam Pelech’s $5.75MM price tag is a bit on the high side although with the way the free agent market could go, it might be viewed as an asset this time next month.  Alexander Romanov is a pending restricted free agent with arbitration rights like Dobson.  Keeping them would push their back end spending past the $30MM range.  But if one of Pelech or Romanov were to be moved, the remaining one, Schaefer, and Isaiah George could comprise the top three on the left side on opening night, keeping the cap charge a little more reasonable along the way.

Coming up with a trade value for Dobson isn’t easy.  Don’t get me wrong, his trade value is quite high.  But I have no idea what direction the Islanders are going here under new GM Mathieu Darche.  To me, I think they need to rebuild.  And if they opted to move Dobson in that situation, I think two first-round picks, a top prospect, and some sort of salary offset (ideally a defenseman) is attainable.  But if they’re not rebuilding (and if I had to guess today, this would be my pick of the route they take), now you’re looking at more of a player-for-player type of swap.  Maybe a two-for-one with a top-four blueliner and a key forward coming the other way with both players being signed or under club control for the long haul.  Going for a short-term veteran or two wouldn’t make sense.

With each scenario, the potential suitors vary considerably with a very strong return coming in either approach.  But I don’t think drafting Schaefer would push Dobson out, not unless Dobson’s contract demands ultimately have Darche leaning toward trading him.

Thefiend313: With Steve Yzerman under pressure from Detroit Red Wings fans, do you think he can pull off a blockbuster move and sign Mitch Marner?

Thefiend313: What do you think the Red Wings will target once free agency starts: Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Vladislav Gavrikov, or someone else?

Thefiend313: What does Steve Yzerman need to accomplish for the Red Wings to contend for the playoffs?

Let’s start with Marner.  Do I think Yzerman will target him?  Of course.  I expect somewhere around two-thirds of the league to at least passively kick the tires.  Detroit would be a tier above that and they have the money to afford him outright (more than $21MM per PuckPedia) without needing to clear out or offset money somewhere else.  That’s a good thing as not every team has that.  But if I’m Marner, the marquee UFA in this class, the Red Wings don’t feel like the most compelling team to sign with.  If I want to win now, they’re not a team to consider.  If I want top dollar and don’t care about short-term success, I can probably get the same money or more out of Chicago or Utah (or even Anaheim), teams that would appear to have a clearer trajectory to long-term success.  Marner leaving his hometown team to sign with a non-playoff division rival would be quite something but that doesn’t feel like a particularly likely scenario.

I’ll use a similar answer to the second question as I did for Chicago as it’s the same philosophy.  You need to get better and you have a lot of money with an RFA group that isn’t going to cost much.  It’s an even cleaner one for Detroit though.  While a short-term veteran doesn’t necessarily make sense for the Blackhawks, it does for the Red Wings who are indeed trying to win now, they just haven’t had much success at that lately.  So the question is basically this.  Is the player a core piece?  If the answer is yes, Yzerman will probably be targeting him.  In a perfect world, a viable second center emerges, potentially allowing them to flip one of J.T. Compher or Andrew Copp whose terms remaining on their contracts aren’t as concerning now for other teams to acquire.  But I doubt Yzerman would be too picky position-wise.  If there’s an upgrade, take it; it’s as simple as that.

As for what he needs to accomplish to be a playoff threat (that’s as far as I’d go, not a contender), they need a top-four upgrade on the back end.  You could sell me on two top-four additions if they want to ease Axel Sandin-Pellikka into the mix.  But you just saw the last answer about Chicago; getting two in this market would be tough.  Another legitimate scoring threat would help as well.  Patrick Kane coming back would help but another one on top of that, basically to fill the role that Vladimir Tarasenko was signed to fill last season.  Defensive improvements should get their roster near the middle of the pack in goals allowed and one more top-six threat might get the offense near the middle of the pack.  That should be enough to get them in the mix.  Not a lot of teams can add or re-sign that much talent in one summer though so this won’t be easy for Yzerman to accomplish.

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Cla23: IMO, Winnipeg Jets seem to have a #2C in Gabriel Vilardi; he was great at faceoffs in the playoffs (I know it a small sample).

For them, it will be impossible to sign or trade for a #2C, so what real chance do they have to acquire a legitimate top-line winger?  Or, do they re-sign Ehlers as well?  Or let Lambert, Barlow, etc try to shine?

Since the Blues targeted Jets star players in the first round, should they try to trade for Rempe and sign Brendan Lemieux in free agency?  I think they should, at least no one will mess with them and besides, it would be fun to watch.

Vilardi is a natural center going back to his days in junior but there’s a reason he doesn’t play the position much in the NHL.  He’s a better fit on the wing than down the middle.  His career faceoff numbers (46.9% on nearly 1,200 draws) is a more useful sample size than going 31-18 in the playoffs and given his injury past, I don’t think he’s viewed as a real candidate for the role.  There’s a reason they rarely go to this and have tried basically every other option out there instead of this one before going to it in the postseason.

But you raise a key point.  Winnipeg has tried several times to fill the second center spot behind Mark Scheifele and they’ve not yet done so with much success.  While it’s possible they sign one this summer (maybe Jonathan Toews if he wants to play in his hometown), it’s probably not probable.  So, would it make more sense to sign a top-line winger and move Vilardi over?  It’s not the worst idea in the world depending on what has made Winnipeg so hesitant to put him there in the first place.

That said, I’d be surprised if Nikolaj Ehlers re-signs.  I don’t see Marner going there and with Kyle Connor extension-eligible this summer, I don’t know if they’d want to risk driving his price tag up with a very pricey winger signing.  Brock Boeser is also out there and could be a fit but that’s about it for top-line wingers that are available.  I’m not overly confident that they have the trade chips to make that type of splash on the trade front, especially with GM Kevin Cheveldayoff not being the most aggressive out there.

I could see them trying to grab someone like Pius Suter with the hopes that a full-time top-six role could allow him to come close to maintaining his production from this season.  Then, in a couple of years when Colby Barlow might be ready to pass him on the depth chart (I think he’ll spend most of this year in the minors), the two can flip roles and maybe it works out.  I’d like to see Brad Lambert get more of an NHL look but he didn’t help his cause in Manitoba this season.  At this point (before all the spending happens), I don’t think they’re viewing him as a full-time regular with the big club.

As for Rempe, could a team afford to risk playing him regularly in the playoffs given his reputation and penchant for taking penalties?  The Rangers certainly didn’t think so two years ago and at this point, he looks more like a fringe NHL player than a regular.  As for Lemieux, he walked away from a one-way deal in Carolina to go play in Switzerland and then didn’t record a point in 15 games with HC Davos.  He has another year left on his deal and at this point, his days of being an NHL player appear to be behind him.  And generally speaking, with a penalty killing group that hasn’t been great the last two years, is adding a pair of players with track records of bad penalties a great idea?  Winnipeg needs a fourth line with more of an identity after it being more of a patchwork group in recent years but there’s a better way to do it than that.

bigalval: What do the Kings do in the offseason?

When this question first came up back in late April, I had them re-signing Vladislav Gavrikov and Andrei Kuzmenko and then bringing in another bottom-six player, similar to the Warren Foegele signing.  I also had them signing a backup goalie but I’ve flipped on that and feel they’ll at least give Erik Portillo a real shot at the number two job.  I think they’ll sign a top AHL goalie or a fringe NHL backup to provide a bit of insurance but keeping that number close to the league minimum might price them out of keeping David Rittich.

I’m a little less bullish on Gavrikov re-signing now.  With the dearth of quality UFA defensemen out there, his price tag feels likely to jump up and the closer he gets to the open market, the more tempting it’s going to be to test it.  But if they do lose him, they’re going to have to find a replacement even if it is easier said than done.  So I’ll amend the answer to say that re-signing or replacing Gavrikov will be on the list.

With a little over $21MM in room, per PuckPedia, new GM Ken Holland has the ability to try to consolidate his spending into one premium pickup if he wants and then use some cheaper players to round out the roster.  I think there’s a better chance now of them at least trying that before pivoting to moves like re-signing Kuzmenko and another Foegele-type addition being fallback plans.  But barring one of the top guys electing to go there, most of my original answer with the forwards like still stands with an eye on having a couple million in cap space available to start the season, allowing them to bank enough in-season space to have the ability to make a splash on the trade front closer to the trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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PHR Mailbag: Avalanche, Devils, Marner, Canadiens, Flyers, Offseason

May 31, 2025 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 9 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include an assessment of the Avalanche, several questions about the Canadiens, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have one more coming from our most recent call for questions.

Pearlo: Do we have a Colorado team spiraling towards a rebuild? No draft picks in first three rounds of the next draft, a very poor prospect pool, a very inconsistent Necas and a questionably effective Landeskog with no second line capable center in their top six as well as a fair top off after Girard with their defense with only $8MM in cap space to fill holes. Seems to me they are skating on pretty thin ice. What say you?

It’s safe to say you’re not in the glass-full camp.  There will come a time when the Avs need to flip the switch and think about the future.  I don’t think they’re there yet.  After all, they weren’t that far off getting through Dallas in the opening round in a matchup that wouldn’t have happened had it not been for a playoff format that is starting to lose its luster, no matter what the league wants to say.

This is a team that still has one of the top forwards in the league in Nathan MacKinnon.  They have one of the top blueliners in Cale Makar.  Those are two premier building blocks signed for at least the next two years; Makar will need a new contract in 2027 (and, barring injury, that will undoubtedly be setting a new NHL record for defensemen at that time).  When you have those pieces in place, it’s hard to say it’s time to take a step back even though your correct assessment of their pick and prospect cupboard suggests it’s an option that should be considered.

I expect Martin Necas will be better next season.  He’s going to have a lot to play for and a full training camp should help after being brought in midseason.  He won’t produce at the same level as Mikko Rantanen but I think he can produce like a top-liner.  On defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Chris MacFarland looks into moving one of Samuel Girard or Josh Manson which could allow the back end to be reshaped a bit and add some cap space potentially.

A lot is going to hinge on if they can address the second center spot.  Whether that’s re-signing Brock Nelson, finding someone externally, or even giving Necas an extended look there, filling that position would really solidify them having two strong scoring lines.  Even with all the question marks (and I’d put goaltending in there as well), that should be more than enough for them to safely be a playoff team.  There will come a time to rebuild.  I don’t think that’s coming for a while yet though.

SpeakofTheDevils: What does a Devils dream offseason look like? Trades? Free Agency? Etc.

First, getting Luke Hughes signed to a long-term deal.  I know the bridge pact would make things a lot easier for GM Tom Fitzgerald in terms of utilizing cap space but if the team feels he’s the high-end defender it looks like he can be, that’s someone you sign now before it gets a whole lot more expensive after a bridge deal.

I wrestled with putting this in their Offseason Checklist earlier this week but finding a way to offload at least most of Ondrej Palat’s contract would go a long way toward giving them some cap space.  I think they’re at a spot where trading with 50% retention is preferable to a buyout but the latter shouldn’t be ruled out.  Palat’s a serviceable player but that’s one spot they can upgrade.

They need to improve on their third center after a tough year from Erik Haula.  They were believed to be looking for that leading into the trade deadline but they might be able to get that in free agency.  They also could use a fourth-line pivot.

Adding a top-six winger would also be a big help.  For them to barely crack the top 20 in goals scored with the roster they have is a problem.  They’re better than that and a key addition should put them back in the top half.  In an ideal world, they land one of the better wingers available.

On defense, I don’t want to say they have an embarrassment of riches but they have a lot of depth and two promising youngsters in the pipeline in Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey.  Can one of those – maybe Jonas Siegenthaler – be packaged with someone like Haula to add a $6MM or so piece to further add on the wing?

And while we’re at it, a veteran goalie that’s a bit more reliable than Nico Daws would be nice too.

I’m sure you were hoping for some names but with how long that list is and their cap situation (barely $12MM in space per PuckPedia), they’re not going to get to all of those without some other moves being made first and I’d simply be guessing on those which doesn’t add much value to the discussion.  Realistically, if they got half or more of these done, it would be a solid offseason.  The dream one might have to wait at least one more year.

Unclemike1526: Since my other question basically was answered, would you please tell me if you’ve ever read anywhere that Mitch Marner won’t play for a rebuilding club?

If it makes you feel any better, the only assistant coach in Chicago I’d have predicted correctly was Anders Sorensen.  Keeping him around would be a good reward for coming up and struggling through the rest of this season so I felt confident about that.  I’d have been hypothesizing Jeff Blashill going after some assistants he had with Detroit had that situation not largely been finalized by last weekend.

As for Marner, I’ve not seen anything credible that says he wouldn’t play for a rebuilding club.  At this point, it feels like his intention is going to be that he’s going to go to the open market and see what’s out there.  If you’re taking that approach, you’re probably not going to rule out a bunch of options off the bat by saying he won’t go to a rebuilding club.

What is Marner’s priority?  Is it to go to a contender?  Not a lot of those have the type of money that he’ll be commanding.  Beyond re-signing with Toronto, Carolina would and, well, that’s about it.  Vegas is being suggested as a speculative link but that would require a lot of money being moved out first although their penchant for big swings means it can’t be ruled out.

But if his priority is top dollar, it might come from a non-contender.  Chicago should be aiming higher this summer.  Utah has an owner willing to spend, a team on the rise, and a lot of cap space.  Anaheim has a promising young core and the purse strings have been loosened a bit.  Columbus nearly made the playoffs with their group and might want to swing big as well.  There’s a compelling case to be made for any of those teams.

In a perfect world, Marner, or any other top free agent really, would get his cake and eat it too by finding a legitimate contender that has a lot of cap space.  He’ll have to figure out what level of importance to place on either of those options.  He has another month to do so before anything probably truly gets ruled out.

frozenaquatic: The NHL has about 10 Kershaws through history. Marner, Matthews, Panarin, Hellebuyck now. Historically, Yashin, Rick Nash, Todd Bertuzzi, Joe Thornton — even Marcel Dionne — were known to disappear come May. Stammer was accused of being a regular-season merchant for a while, but busted the reputation during the Covid Cup Dynasty. What do you think it takes to coach a guy to play with more intensity, take hits, block shots, not make east-west passes, go to the net, and find shooting lanes — to do the things necessary to play good playoff hockey? Who would even want Marner at $12 – 14 million if he has this reputation?

I don’t think there’s a coach out there who’s going to drastically change Marner’s style of play.  Over 700 games into his career (regular season and playoffs), he is who he is at this point.  If there wasn’t a material change under a coach with a tougher reputation in Craig Berube, I don’t think there’s necessarily a coach out there who is going to make him change the way he plays to do the things you listed on a full-time basis.

But what Marner is at this stage of his career is still a really good player.  He’s a premier playmaker, is pretty consistent offensively year-to-year, and his defensive game often goes under the radar.  There’s a reason he’s being projected to sign a record-breaking contract and that’s because of all of the positives he brings to the table.  The playoff performance doesn’t help his cause but it doesn’t materially cripple his value either.

As for who would want him?  The list of who wouldn’t is probably longer than the list of who would.  I expect any team that has that much money to at least kick the tires with probably six to eight teams making him their top target.  Players of his skill level are rarely available ‘for free’ on the open market.  His playoff reputation won’t be scaring many teams off.  Those teams’ coaches will be saying that they can make it work with Marner being exactly who he is.

Jaysen: Let’s say every player is available. What are your top 3 targets for 2C position if you are Kent Hughes? And what do you think is the value of Logan Mailloux in a trade? Not really overly impressed with him but I do know that defensemen take longer to develop.

Finally, Fowler seems like the real deal. I expect Dobes to back up Montembeault this year but next year? If Fowler develops the way he is supposed to, what do you do? Trade Dobes? Or do you go for the big decision and trade Montembeault do let Dobes and Fowler tend the twine??

The qualifier that everyone is available makes this a little unrealistic but I’ll play along and give you a couple more than three.  Anaheim’s Mason McTavish fits the age of Montreal’s core group and feels like someone they’d acquire and then sign long-term.  I don’t see the Ducks moving him though.  I’d throw Quinton Byfield (Los Angeles) and Matty Beniers (Seattle) in there as well but again, I don’t see them being available.  Maybe Barrett Hayton in Utah if they wound up taking a big swing at adding a center in free agency but that’s from a guarantee.  If Florida re-signs Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad and makes Anton Lundell available, he’d be on the list too but that’s three ifs.  The key elements are they’re young, have upside, and several years of team control or contract remaining.  But there’s a reason they’re so hard to come by.

Mailloux is a hard player to evaluate.  He’s still very raw and underdeveloped after his OHL career consisted of just 75 games or barely a single season so he’s behind on the development curve, so to speak.  Offensively, he can probably play at the NHL level now.  Defensively, he has shown flashes of being NHL-level there but at other times, he has struggled.  That’s not uncommon for young blueliners as you note but that type of inconsistency will give some teams pause.

As a young, right-shot blueliner with enough raw skills to play in the top four, there’s a lot to like.  But with how things have gone to this point, there will be some who shy away or come in low with offers knowing there’s some risk in acquiring him.  Other teams will probably feel that their coaches can get those fundamentals in place more frequently, making him a top-four option.  His trade value revolves around how he’s perceived.  If it’s a team that is hesitant, they’re probably going no higher than a second-round pick.  If it’s the latter category, a first-round value isn’t off the table.  I don’t think Mailloux is the centerpiece of a big trade this summer but if they find a team that believes in the upside, he could be a key component of one.

Goalie coaches have said in the past that they generally want a goalie to get at least 100 starts in the AHL.  I’ve seen some say 150.  Jacob Fowler is at all of eight at the moment.  Accordingly, I don’t think he’s even in the equation for full-time NHL duty for at least two more years at which time Sam Montembeault’s deal is up.  To be honest, I’m not even fully certain that Jakub Dobes is the full-time backup in Montreal next season as he’s only at 65 AHL games.  I could see Montreal signing a veteran third-stringer and then calling that goalie up periodically to give Dobes some games in Laval and a higher workload than he’d get as the permanent backup in Montreal.  If all goes well, they’ll have to make room for Fowler eventually but they’re probably not giving that serious thought for another 24 months or so.

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Emoney123: It appears the Flyers will have some cap room heading into next season… is there enough to make some progress in the rebuild? What impact might Tocchet have on recruiting free agents, motivating players, style of play, and winning?

Let’s look at that cap room first.  Following the recent bridge deal given to Tyson Foerster, they have a little under $23MM in space, per PuckPedia.  New contracts for Cameron York and Noah Cates will cut into that by anywhere from $8MM to $12MM depending on whether York gets a long-term pact.  So they have some wiggle room to work with for sure.

As for making progress, it depends on what you mean by the term.  Is that money going to allow them to get another young core player or two?  Probably not; those players aren’t available in free agency and spending prospect capital to trade for them not doesn’t make a ton of sense unless they’re paying a below-market cost.  That’s one way to progress in a rebuild.  But if you mean progress in the sense of adding some veteran pieces to make the team more competitive and at least be more in the mix for a playoff spot, sure, there’s enough cap space for them to do that.

I don’t see Rick Tocchet helping to attract free agents, at least not yet.  Rarely do you hear players talk about wanting to play for a specific coach or program.  He’s not a big recruitment tool in that sense.  What would be a recruitment tool is the team playing more competitively with him behind the bench and showing that they’re heading in the right direction.  Given how things went off the rail last year, I think Tocchet can certainly help in that regard and get them winning more games but I don’t think it’ll be a quick fix.  If the team is more competitive, they’ll be more motivated.  I know that’s a simplistic answer but I think the idea of a coach giving passionate speeches to motivate the team is largely overblown.

Schwa: Who do you see having the most successful and most disappointing offseasons from the following groups – contenders, rebuilding (near the bottom), and teams somewhere in between (I know the latter is broad, if you want to segment into teams trending positively/negatively). Thanks!

Contenders: If we’re using the playoffs as a barometer, I’d put Carolina as one that I expect will have a strong offseason.  They’re in the mix every year and while they’re a small-market team, there will be players who want to wind that will find that appealing.  They’ll also find the smorgasbord of cap space quite appealing.  On the flip side, I think it’s going to be a tough summer for Dallas.  This was their one big swing.  They have less than $5MM in cap space per PuckPedia with their list of UFAs including (but not limited to) Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, Jamie Benn, and Cody Ceci.  That’s a lot of talent that’s about to head out the door.

Rebuilders: Can I put Utah in this category?  They’re on the way up in their rebuild but still haven’t made the playoffs so I think I can get away with putting them here.  Their young core group is getting better and for the second straight year, I expect them to make a big splash and add another key piece or two to the group.  They’re on the way up and this offseason will help propel them more in that direction.  As for one that might have a disappointing summer, I’m going to pick the Sharks.  They’re going to have the money to try to make some moves to push them out of the cellar and at least start looking upward but something tells me there’s going to be one more year of struggling at this level before GM Mike Grier pivots to the next stage.

In Betweeners: Let’s go with Minnesota for having a successful summer.  They’ve been waiting for this for a while now and now that they have the cap space and a GM who is known to be aggressive, I expect there to be a talent influx.  As for a disappointing summer, I’m going to put Seattle here.  They probably should be rebuilding (and I thought the GM change might allow them to do so) but their coaching hire suggests they’re looking to try to get back to the playoffs instead of taking a step back to take two forward.  They’ll have enough to sign a piece or two after keeping their RFAs but they’re not a piece or two away from being a playoff threat barring a bunch of players turning things around next season.  If they take that approach, that would be a disappointment in my book.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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PHR Mailbag: Coaches, Cup Winner, Hellebuyck, Lightning, Panthers

May 24, 2025 at 1:38 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include predictions for the three remaining head coaching vacancies around the NHL, Connor Hellebuyck’s playoff struggles, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in one of our next two mailbag columns.

yeasties: Just for funsies, predict who gets hired for the remaining head coach openings?

Let’s jump right in with a tough one, shall we?  There are three remaining openings after Jeff Blashill got the nod in Chicago: Boston, Seattle, and Pittsburgh.  Here are my picks for those three spots.

Bruins: I’ll go with Marco Sturm for them.  While internal options Joe Sacco and Jay Leach are believed to be in the mix still, can they really justify promoting from within after suggesting their intention is to get back to the playoffs next season?  Sturm has plenty of familiarity with the market after spending a lot of time there as a player which might appeal to management and ownership and he has been in the mix for a few top jobs now with experience as an NHL assistant and an AHL head coach.  He’s bound to get one soon and I think it might be here.

Kraken: The sense was that they were waiting for a candidate or two which tells me that Mitch Love may have been on their radar.  After Spencer Carbery did well as a first-time coach in Washington, it stands to reason that one of his assistants would get poached relatively quickly.  While I doubt management will come out and say this, this feels like a spot where they need to do a bit of a reset.  Getting a bit younger and taking a step back feels like a good opening for a first-time NHL head coach to allow him some time to get his feet wet without a lot of pressure.

Penguins: It wasn’t that long ago that Jay Woodcroft was viewed as one of the up-and-coming coaches before he got a short stint in Edmonton where a poor start last season cost him his job.  He has lots of experience working with younger players and at some point, Pittsburgh has to start getting younger.  On the flip side, he also has experience working in a win-now environment which, for better or for worse, appears to the fine line that they’re trying to walk, remaining competitive while getting younger.  A coach with some experience in both worlds like Woodcroft makes some sense here so I’ll go with him.

Schwa: Curious on your cup pick from the Final 4.

It’s hard not to go with Florida here.  The way they came back against Toronto and the way they’ve started against Carolina has been quite impressive.  The way that series is going, they could be in line for a bit of an extended break if it ends quickly which would be critical for a veteran-laden team who went all the way last season.  That would put them in a great spot to start.

My pick to come out of the West is Dallas but that’s not going to be a short series.  After needing 13 games to get this far and likely six or seven in this one, I’m a bit concerned that they might be a bit too worn down by the end of it.  And if Edmonton makes it a repeat of last year’s Final, their goaltending is even more erratic than it was a year ago with more inconsistent special teams.  It’s not that neither team couldn’t win but for me, the Panthers are the current favorite.

PyramidHeadcrab: So, what’s the deal with Connor Hellebuyck? If we look at advanced stats of the team around him, is it truly a case of an elite goalie consistently collapsing in the playoffs? Or is it the defense around him?

It’s absolutely stunning to see the Jets go from winning the Presidents’ Trophy to seeing Hellebuyck post the worst numbers of any goaltender in the playoffs – an unacceptable 0.866 save% (and it was worse than that at various points).

And I guess the follow-up question is… Where does the team go from here? Is this something that can be corrected?

I think there are two parts to it.  One is that the recent road struggles are in his head.  And it’s really only the road games that are the issue.  His home save percentage in the playoffs was .913 and while a pair of shutouts boosted that, those were his last two home games against a tough Dallas team.  I don’t want to take the easy way out and say it’s the yips but that’s a roadblock he’s going to have to get over and generally, the only way to do that is to keep throwing him out there in those situations.  And really, as their sure-fire starter, they’re going to keep doing that.  With the contract he has and not a particularly deep goalie pool of prospects, he will continue to be Winnipeg’s starter for the long haul.  This playoff run doesn’t change that.

The other factor at play that hurts here is game planning.  The book on Hellebuyck is that he’s more prone to be beat when he has to go side to side, suggesting more cross-ice play is the way to go.  If you’re a team playing Winnipeg in game 46 of the regular season, you’re aware of the scouting report but if you don’t play that way, you’re not going to overhaul your strategy for a random game in January.  But if you’re playing them in a best-of-seven series, you’re going to make some changes to try to maximize that particular weakness.  And that has happened for the last couple of years now.  The fix there is goalie coach Wade Flaherty coming up with some adjustments to help Hellebuyck improve in those situations or at least mitigate that weakness.  Considering how long he has been in the league for, I think the latter is more realistic than the former of those two options.

I have a hard time pinning a lot of this on the defense aside from perhaps not making adjustments of their own to take away some of the cross-ice options.  But they only allowed 23 shots per game in the playoffs which, while it’s a bit simplistic, is a number any team would be happy with.  I think Hellebuyck can get past this but there will definitely be question marks for his next playoff run.

The Duke: Lightning Round!

Is Merilainen Ottawa’s backup next season – and eventual #1?
More goals: Gauthier or Carlsson.
Is Snuggerud Top-6 and #1 PP unit?
Is Levshunov or Korchinski Chicago’s PPQB?
Levi’s short- and long-term future?

1) With Ottawa locking in with Linus Ullmark on a long-term pricey deal, it makes sense that the Sens would look to go with a low-cost backup.  That should give Leevi Merilainen the edge but with all of 14 NHL games under his belt, I think they’re going to want an insurance policy.  I could see them going after a lower-tier backup that could push for the backup spot or be on standby in the minors if Merilainen struggles.  Something sort of along the lines of what Buffalo tried to do this year with James Reimer although that didn’t work quite as planned.

2) Short-term, probably Cutter Gauthier.  But if Leo Carlsson’s training wheels eventually comes off and gets into that top-line role, he could be a 35-40-goal player if all went well.  I don’t see Gauthier reaching that level on an annual basis.

3) If all goes well, that should be the outcome for Jimmy Snuggerud.  He got a bit of time in those spots in the playoffs but I wouldn’t expect him to be a fixture in those spots next season as he’ll likely be moved up and down the lineup at times.

4) Out of the two, I’d say Artyom Levshunov since Kevin Korchinski didn’t exactly have a great season and I could see him back in Rockford, to be honest.  With how well Sam Rinzel played down the stretch, he probably will get a shot in that role as well.

5) I think it’s hard for Buffalo to call Devon Levi their starter of the future but I could still see him being viewed internally as a goalie of the future for him.  Whether that’s as a backup or platoon piece remains to be seen.  If it were up to me, he’d play in Rochester next season with Buffalo getting a more proven backup.  But if they need cap space to fill other holes, Levi could start next season as the backup once again.

FeeltheThunder: I’m quite curious about Tampa’s offseason plans. GM Julien BriseBois stated about a week ago that the organization is still debriefing on their offseason plans. However, the belief is they need to boost their bottom-six with more secondary scoring and some additional grit. Furthermore, there is speculation they also need to possibly upgrade their 3rd defensive unit. I’m wondering (and have some ideas) who they should look into or go after in FA whether it’s UFAs or even RFAs in retooling these areas to certain degrees as I would like to hear your thoughts?

Also, with Jeff Blashill leaving as an assistant, does this potentially open the door for Derek Lalonde to return who many Tampa fans want back on the staff?

One last thing, Tampa needs to move Conor Sheary which would give them an additional $2MM in cap space as that $2MM that could be used elsewhere, wouldn’t you agree?

Let’s answer these out of order as the last two are pretty quick.  I agree that they could better use Sheary’s $2MM but he also has negative trade value at this point.  They will have to attach an asset to clear his contract outright and is that better than waiving and burying him in the minors again, clearing $1.15MM off the books?  It depends on what they have in mind for adding to their roster.  As for Lalonde, it’s certainly a possibility if he wants to go back to that role.  But if he wants to be a head coach again, he could opt to stay on the sidelines and be available for any in-season openings, something that wouldn’t be an option if he were an assistant coach somewhere.

Tampa Bay has less than $6MM in cap space to work with, per PuckPedia.  With that, they have a forward or two to add or re-sign and probably at least one defenseman.  That doesn’t leave a lot of flexibility to work with although Gage Goncalves shouldn’t cost too much to re-sign.  Basically, they want to find someone who can fill Sheary’s spot better than Sheary and I agree, helping the third pairing would be ideal.  They’re going to have to aim low to do those things though with their lack of space.

I don’t see them targeting any restricted free agents as they lack the draft capital to go after some of the better options via an offer sheet while diluting their cupboards to fill a depth role doesn’t make a lot of sense when they can probably get a similar UFA to fill the spot where the only cost is money.

Some of the trade deadline candidates I suggested for them before make some sense here.  Luke Kunin won’t score a lot but gives them some positional versatility.  Joel Armia plays a good possession game that would fit on the third line and might only cost a bit more than Sheary.  I think Justin Danforth would be someone they’d like, a player who can play all three forward spots and can cover different roles in the lineup when needed.  When cap space is limited, flexibility becomes a lot more appealing.

For defensemen, assuming that Nick Perbix prices himself out of town, I think they’ll look at a short-term veteran on a one-year deal where they can get creative with bonuses to lower the 2025-26 charge.  Ryan Suter signed a contract like that this summer and might be willing to again.  If they want a right-shot option, Jeff Petry in a limited role could fit.  Jan Rutta, a familiar name for Tampa fans, could be open to a return to the role he had a few years ago.

In a perfect world, they bank some in-season cap space so out of that $5.8MM or so that they have, they might only spend $4.5MM this summer.  With a few players needing to be paid from that, they’re going to be bargain hunting for each role they’re trying to fill.

frozenaquatic: What do you think about this idea that the Panthers are franchise killers? They run roughshod over teams who have no answer for their combination of grit, compete, execution, and opportunism. I’m not a fan, but I’m in awe of how they dismantle teams and expose their flaws — with the Canes it looks like they’re being patient, goading them into taking penalties, and using their size advantage. If they win again this year, would you consider them a dynasty, or do they need one more championship?

Do you think they’ll try and retain Bennett? It seems like Ekblad is out the door, and I think he’s definitely a huge part of their imposing backend. Lastly, what do you think about the talk of them being “dirty,” “headhunting,” and Paul Maurice basically being a bounty coach (obviously not explicitly)?

Back-to-back championships would be impressive but that’s not enough to qualify as a dynasty.  They’d need at least a third in a short period of time to get into that discussion.  I also wouldn’t call them franchise killers.  They’re a well-balanced team with few weaknesses and a deeper roster than it might seem at first glance.  That, coupled with above-average physicality, makes them a tough team to beat but they’re far from unbeatable.  Toronto gave them a good run in five of their seven matchups, at least and had they not fallen apart in one of those, we could easily be seeing a Maple Leafs-Hurricanes matchup here.

I do expect them to try to keep Sam Bennett and I do think he’ll re-sign close to the start of free agency.  He won’t get top dollar from them but their no state tax situation should allow Florida to get close enough where it makes sense for him to stay.  I agree that Aaron Ekblad is likely gone; I think the move they made to get Seth Jones was his preemptive replacement while getting the benefit of having both for this playoff run.

I don’t think they’re necessarily a head-hunting team but they know where the line is and step over it from time to time.  I wouldn’t put Maurice in that category though.  He encourages his teams to be physical but that alone isn’t enough to put that particular qualifier on him.  But his roster has some players who, again, will go over that line at times but I feel that’s of their own volition, not from a sense of expectation from the coach that it needs to happen.

Photo courtesy of James Carey Lauder-Imagn Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

May 23, 2025 at 7:16 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 29 Comments

The first two rounds of the playoffs are in the books with only four teams remaining in contention for the Stanley Cup while the other 28 await what’s expected to be a particularly busy offseason in terms of activity.  Meanwhile, a handful of teams are still working through their searches for their next head coach while another is in the home stretch for finding their next general manager.

With all that in mind, it’s a good time to open up the mailbag once again.  Our last call for questions had enough for two separate columns.  The first talked about Winnipeg’s attractiveness to players, the Quinn Hughes situation in Vancouver, what could happen this offseason for the Kings, and more.  Meanwhile, topics in the second included discussing the idea of San Jose moving its top draft pick, buyout discussions for the Blues, and what Detroit might be looking to do in the coming weeks.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run this weekend.

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