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Bruins Hoping To Re-Sign Zdeno Chara

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While Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was putting together an article about Boston Bruins captain Zdeno Chara late last night, the big man was busy scoring two goals as the Bruins rolled the Arizona Coyotes 6-2. Friedman’s report and Chara’s game prove the same point: the 40-year-old is far from done.

Friedman reveals that Boston GM Don Sweeney has received trade inquires about Chara, and it is thought that some teams have been considering acquiring the Norris Trophy-winner since as far back as the 2017 Trade Deadline. However, with his play continuing to hold steady as he enters his 20th NHL season, Sweeney has had no interest in moving Chara. Instead, Friedman reports that the team would prefer to re-sign him and Chara has been candid that he would like to continue his career with Boston.

Part of the reason for the uptick in interest in Chara is also why the Bruins would like to keep him this year and re-sign him: they have already extended this contract once to cover the 2017-18 season, during which Chara will count for just $4MM against the cap. That is a far cry from the $7.5MM-$6.9MM that Chara has made each year since originally signing in Boston in 2006. For the first time in a few years, Chara is in fact an excellent value this season. If, going forward, Sweeney can keep his captain at that lower number, he could continue to be a bargain asset into his 40’s.

At 6’9″, 250-lbs, Chara may not have the longevity of a Jaromir Jagr. However, the role that he is being asked to play in Boston is one that he can maintain for at least a couple more years. Chara has lost a step in his skating no question and he could benefit from playing fewer minutes, as he has tended to tail off in individual games and toward the end of the season. Yet, Chara is still one of the best checkers in the game – maybe one of the best all-time – and his shot has hardly lost its record-setting power, as evidenced last night. However, the most important role that the Slovakian superstar plays for a Bruins team getting younger with each year is captain. The Bruins are loaded with leadership and experience, as Patrice Bergeron and David Backes would be the captains of nearly any other team in the league, but Chara’s mentoring on the blue line is invaluable. Brandon Carlo, Chara’s defensive partner for the last year plus, is developing into a top-notch shutdown defender in his own right and with Charlie McAvoy now in town and the likes of Jakub Zboril, Jeremy Lauzon, Urho Vaakanainen and (especially) Ryan Lindgren on their way, the Bruins have one of the best teachers possible to help develop a new generation of defenseman, while still playing a meaningful role.

Since signing with Boston in 2006, among all defenseman Chara is seventh in scoring, seventh in hits, fifth in time on ice, second only to Shea Weber in power play goals, and second only to Duncan Keith in +/-. Not only has he been great, but the future Hall of Famer has become one of the most recognizable names in hockey. Luckily for fans, not just in Boston but across the planet, it doesn’t seem as if we’re seeing the last of Chara. The big man still has gas left in the tank.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Chicago Blackhawks

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Chicago Blackhawks

Current Cap Hit: $75,034,795 (over the $75MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

RW Ryan Hartman (one-year remaining, $863K)
C Nick Schmaltz (two-years remaining, $925K)
C Vinnie Hinostroza (one-year remaining, $718K)
D Gustav Forsling (two-years remaining, $872.5K)
D Ville Pokka (one-year remaining, $650K)

Schmaltz is a lock for the roster along with Hartman but Hinostroza depending, on the play of a number of players, could find himself in Rockford to start the season. A strong training camp could give him a chance to usurp a few veterans on a PTO while also grabbing a spot away from the likes of a Tomas Jurco, Jordin Tootoo or Lance Bouma. Forsling will most likely spend the bulk of the season in Rockford, barring major injury or a lack of production from one of the veterans. Pokka will vie with Forsling for a spot, but many expect Cody Franson to have the upper hand when it comes to defensemen making the team, leaving the two youngsters as either a healthy scratch, or starting in Rockford.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Lance Bouma ($1M, UFA)
RW Patrick Sharp ($800K, UFA)
LW/RW Tomas Jurco (800K, RFA)
RW/LW Tommy Wingels ($750K, UFA)
RW Jordin Tootoo ($700K, UFA)
D Michal Kempny ($900K, UFA)
D Michal Rozsival ($650K, UFA)

It’s an interesting list of players with one-year deals, but Sharp, who is back for a second go-around with the Hawks, could find himself shuffled between the top and bottom six on any given day. Expect Sharp to be the player who takes a similar approach to the now retired Brian Campbell: a reunion in Chicago that could be extended yearly based on his body holding out and production remaining consistent. Sharp spent the last two seasons playing in pain, but after hip surgery, he now feels better. If this rejuvinates him, he could be a bargain deal.

This is dependent on a number of factors, namely, which young kids could see rotation within the lines. Jurco is an acclamation project, a castoff from the Red Wings who could play a big role should he live up to the once-upon-a-time expectations he promised. Wingels, Rozsival and Tootoo are most likely playing out a contract in Chicago while Kempny is playing for a longer term deal. Bouma is most likely a one-and-done in Chicago, but if he can recapture the scoring touch he had two seasons ago in Calgary, he could be a Panik-like revelation and earn some extra years in the Windy City.

Mar 29, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Chicago Blackhawks left wing Tomas Jurco (13) caries the puck up ice against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the third period at the PPG PAINTS Arena. Chicago won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Two Years Remaining

RW Richard Panik ($2.8M, UFA)
C Tanner Kero ($750K, RFA)
G Anton Forsberg ($750K, RFA)
G Jean-Francois Berube ($700K, UFA)

Panik received a very cap-friendly hit for a player who found a niche in Chicago, netting 44 points (22-22) in a career year. Kero filled in nicely during a slew of injuries, planting himself as a dependable third line center on a very economically friendly deal. Forsberg and Berube will both have chances to rotate in as backups.

Three Years Remaining

G Corey Crawford ($6M, UFA)

Crawford may be over 30 but he continues to be a dependable and often game-stealing force in the net for Chicago. Though the Hawks blue line is older, Crawford hasn’t shown signs of true regression, as his numbers held steady during a season when Chicago wasn’t nearly as defensively dominant.

Four Or More Years Remaining

Patrick Kane ($10.4M, Runs through 2022-23)
Jonathan Toews ($10.4M, Runs through 2022-23)
Brandon Saad ($6M, Runs through 2020-21)
Artem Anisimov ($4.5M Runs through 2020-21)
Duncan Keith ($5.5M Runs through 2022-23)
Brent Seabrook ($6.85M Runs through 2023-24)
Connor Murphy ($3.85M Runs through 2021-22)
Marian Hossa ($5.28M Runs through 2020-21)

The bulk of Chicago’s salaries are long-term and while some appeared to be wise deals (Kane and Toews) others threaten to be an albatross for many years to come (Seabrook). Hossa’s contract is another one that remains to be seen, as his allergy-related retirement could push the Slovak’s contract onto the LTIR, giving the Hawks some needed breathing room. This hardly solves matters, as it will still limit them from adding any major players since they’ll still be butted up to the Cap limit. The Saad-Panarin deal back in June flipped players with identical dollar amounts but Saad is inked to a longer term. Murphy is a solid defenseman who should only get better with time, especially being surrounded by leaders and talents like Keith, and Seabrook. Finally, the acquisition of Saad will give the front office and fans a litmus test on the Captain. Dogged for “disappearing” in the playoffs and not posting better numbers in the regular season, Saad will be another two-way presence that will ease some of the stress off of Toews’ on-ice assignments. An uptick in production should quiet those who believe Toews is regressing with a very expensive contract.

Still to Sign

None

Looking Ahead

Some say the Blackhawks window is closing, but much of the same was said about the Penguins, who are now coming off consecutive Stanley Cup victories. The key for the Hawks will be health as they certainly don’t have the flexibility to add much in the way of salary.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Eastern Notes: Toronto’s Defense, Prospects, Butcher

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have received plenty of attention this offseason with their moves, including the surprising signing of San Jose veteran Patrick Marleau to a three-year deal. Add Marleau to the young cast of offensive weapons the team already has like Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, William Nylander and Mitch Marner, the team has hopes of making a run towards a Stanley Cup Finals this season.

However, Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun is quick to point out that the Maple Leafs need to emphasize defense too. He writes that many people have forgotten that the team finished 22nd in goals against last year. Every team that finished behind them didn’t make the playoffs. And when you look at the moves the team made, very little of it was to help the defense. The team did sign 36-year-old Ron Hainsey, but how much will that help? He’s 36 years old.

Simmons writes that Toronto leadership knows the importance of defense. Coach Mike Babcock, who has won a Stanley Cup in 2008 with the Detroit Red Wings, had a team that was first in goals against that year. General Manager Lou Lamoriello won his last Stanley Cup with the New Jersey Devils in 2003, they were also first in goals against.

However, the team’s defense should be stronger. The team boasts a number of young, developing defensemen like Nikita Zaitsev, who is just 25 years old. Morgan Rielly is only 23 years old. Jake Gardiner is 27. Martin Marincin is 25 as well, while Connor Carrick is 23. That’s a young defense and maybe a major reason why the team brought Hainsey in. However, even with a year of development, how much better can this defense be?

  • With rookie camps just a week away for many teams, Fanrag’s Craig Morgan put together a detailed list of rookies who could make an impact on the team. While it has the usual candidates like Nico Hischier, Nolan Patrick and Clayton Keller, there are quite a few lesser known ones as well. Players like Washington’s Jakub Vrana, New York Islanders’ Ryan Pulock and Columbus’ Pierre-Luc Dubois are players rarely mentioned who could make an impact this year.
  • Sports Illustrated featured New Jersey Devils Will Butcher after he chose the Devils last weekend. Butcher claims he sees similarities in his game to three NHL players including Chicago’s Duncan Keith, Boston’s Torey Krug and New Jersey’s Andy Greene. ”If I was fortunate to make the big team, he would be a great mentor to me, just because he does everything,” Butcher said of Greene. ”He penalty kills, power play, all situations. He is a smart player, not necessarily the biggest guy, but he uses his abilities to defend well and play the game of hockey.”

Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL

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When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.

The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.

However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.

So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.

With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra’s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.

While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.

Free Agent Profile: Johnny Oduya

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Johnny Oduya is a name that has fallen off most hockey fanatics’ radar this off-season, and perhaps there is good reason for that. Oduya is 35 years old and came off a brutal playoff performance in their sweep against Nashville. The league is certainly trending in the “what have you done for me lately” direction, so no one should be entirely shocked that he remains unclaimed this deep into July.

That said, it’s still conceivable that he has a bounce back year. For a bargain bin price, he’s worth taking a shot on. Although his dreadful 2016-17 outing had him finish with only 9 points and an uninspiring 46.8% Corsi For, he’d been above the 50% mark the prior 5 seasons. He can lo longer handle a ton of minutes, and he will need sheltering from top competition, as many bottom-pairing defensemen do. He only averaged 18:16 of ice-time through the year, but considering that 59.3% of his zone starts were in the defensive end, he managed to hold his own. As a veteran 6th or 7th defenseman, he may still have something to offer.

Potential Suitors

The Blackhawks are seemingly always looking to re-unite with names from their past glories, but the fit may not be one Stan Bowman is willing to try again. He looked sluggish and out of sorts, and got blown by on numerous occasion by the depth players of Nashville. That said, the team will likely need at least another defenseman on the roster, so it’s not impossible. But with Duncan Keith (34), Brent Seabrook (32), and Michal Rozsival (38) already making up half the defense, do they really want to get older still?

Oduya hasn’t been definitively linked to practically anyone. It’s quite possible he’s holding on to see what opens up as teams enter training camp. Teams like the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers, and Los Angeles Kings could use another 6/7, and would be on the hunt for a bargain. The New Jersey Devils of course completely lacking on the back-end, and might want a mentor for 22 year olds Mirco Mueller, Damon Severson, and Michael Kapla. In truth, a good 50% of the league that could afford to take a chance on him for a single season, but the question remains, who will?

Ultimately, we aren’t likely to hear much chatter on this front until the arbitration period has passed. Teams want to have their organizational contracts set in stone before offering a contract to what will ultimately amount to a stop-gap defender solution.

Projected Contract

Last month, we projected a one-year, $2.5MM deal for Oduya back with Chicago, but they certainly no longer have him in their plans. We had him ranked at a respectable 32nd in a weak UFA class, but even that may have been overestimating his remaining value around the league. Oduya will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to prove he still “has it”, and the monetary value of that contract will be far less. He could always decide to play in Europe, but at the bare minimum he’ll attract at PTO, much like Cody Franson. If he does sign before the end of summer, it will likely be for under $1 MM, quite the paycut from his 2016-17 AAV of $3.75 MM.

Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Justin Schultz

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have re-signed one of their most important pieces, inking Justin Schultz to a three-year, $16.5MM contract. The deal runs through 2019-20, after which Schultz will become an unrestricted free agent.

Schultz has had his career completely resuscitated since joining the high-flying Penguins last season. Signing as a big-name college free agent, he struggled for parts of four seasons in Edmonton before being shipped for a third-round pick at the 2016 deadline. Schultz went on to win the Stanley Cup in back-to-back seasons, and was especially important this last post-season, helping fill the void left by the injury to Kris Letang.

Schultz is known primarily as an offensive defenseman. His isn’t overly physical and generally isn’t played in shutdown situations. However, he was far from sheltered last season in Pittsburgh, playing over 20 minutes a night in the regular season against quality competition, generally being slotted alongside the stay-at-home Ian Cole on the second pairing. Schultz finished the season with 51 points, good for 7th among all NHL defenseman. Notably, he finished within 5 points of household names like Duncan Keith, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Dustin Byfuglien. He was a solid shooting option on the powerplay and truly flourished once May rolled around, adding 4 goals and 9 assists as he utilized a solid first-pass to spring the more threatening Pittsburgh forwards.

His $5.5 MM cap hit is likely more than what GM Jim Rutherford had expected to set aside for him when acquired just over a season ago. Fellow restricted free-agent Brian Dumoulin is also looking to get a payday this summer, so it remains to be seen whether some money may be moving out from the defense corps. A possible target could be Olli Maatta who is coming off a sluggish year, and is earning $4.083 MM for the next 5 seasons. Dumoulin and Schultz have definitively passed Maatta on the depth chart, and this sort of financial commitment will only add fuel to the fire that Maatta is the odd man out.

Deadline Approaches To Ask Players To Waive No-Movement Clauses

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On the heels of yesterday’s report that both Keith Yandle and Dion Phaneuf had been asked to waive their no-movement clauses in order to be exposed for the upcoming expansion draft, speculation is running rampant around the league on who else will be asked. Below is the full list of players who currently require protection due to their clauses. The deadline to submit a request to a player is 4pm CDT today, while the player must inform the team of his decision by the same time on Friday June 16th. Because the Stanley Cup Finals ended last night, Nashville and Pittsburgh will not receive an extension and will need to submit their requests at the same time as every other team.

Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio today and mentioned that the Anaheim Ducks have spoken with Kevin Bieksa about possibly waiving his clause, something examined at length in our recent Ducks Expansion Primer.

Anaheim (4)
Kevin Bieksa — Expected to be asked.
Ryan Getzlaf
Ryan Kesler
Corey Perry

Arizona (1)
Alex Goligoski

Boston (4)
David Backes
Patrice Bergeron
Zdeno Chara
David Krejci

Read more

Chicago’s Impending Struggle To Be Cap Compliant

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Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman has had the uncanny ability for years now to somehow find a way to squeeze his uber-talented rosters under the NHL salary cap. Bowman’s willingness to trade or let walk valued players with high-priced contracts only to replace them to the same effect with affordable veterans and young players has enabled the team to become the NHL’s dynasty franchise over the last decade. However, heading into 2017-18, has Bowman finally put himself in a position that he can’t get out of?

The NHL’s salary cap limit for next season has not yet been decided, but early indications are that it could remain flat or rise only a minimal amount. Based on 2016-17’s $73MM ceiling, the Chicago Blackhawks would be more than $4.5MM over the cap if the season started today (via CapFriendly). That total includes a total of 13 forwards, seven defenseman, and two goalies, ten of which will make under $1MM next season. What it doesn’t include is new contracts for restricted free agents Dennis Rasmussen and Tomas Jurco, the possibility of bringing back veteran defenseman Brian Campbell, or the Blackhawk’s major need for a backup goalie, which will only off-set the cap by Jeff Glass’ $600K contract.

Of course, Chicago does have some assistance this off-season in the form of the Expansion Draft, in which they will lose someone’s cap hit. The team certainly hopes that that cap hit is from Marcus Kruger. Kruger has played an important role for the Blackhawks as a two-way specialist and reliable third-line center, but at over $3MM annually, he’s just not affordable. Rumor has it that the team is willing to move picks and players if it means that the Vegas Golden Knights will select Kruger, but there is no guarantee that Vegas will take the bait. Defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk has been offered up as a companion to Kruger for the Knights, which at $825K for a top-four defenseman would be a major loss for Chicago. However, if the Blackhawks want to protect forwards like Ryan Hartman or Richard Panik in the Expansion Draft, they currently would have no choice but to expose van Riemsdyk. Thus, the team really lacks the leverage to command any deal where the Knights take Kruger to get van Riemsdyk and such a deal may not even come to fruition. Chicago will do all it can, expansion-wise or not, to move Kruger, but it’s far from a done deal.

Even if they are successful in moving Kruger, the Chicago Sun Times’ Mark Lazerus opines that this may not be enough if the cap doesn’t go up significantly; and he’s not alone. Lazerus states that there is rampant speculation that the team may be forced to move a bigger name than Kruger to become cap compliant. Kruger’s salary would (currently) still leave the Blackhawks in the red and even he and van Riemsdyk wouldn’t do it. Bowman could use roster management to get under, but it would leave the team with little to no flexibility in the free agent market and even for in-season call-ups and demotions. Instead, one of Chicago’s core players might need to move. Lazerus knows that neither Brent Seabrook or Artem Anisimov have been asked to waive their No-Movement clauses to be dealt elsewhere and it’s hard to imagine the team trading many of their other No-Movement players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, or Corey Crawford. Marian Hossa may as well be immovable as well, given that the 38-year-old has four years left on his contract at $5.275MM per. That leaves defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson, who Lazerus believes could very well end up on the move. Hjalmarsson is the only high-priced player on the roster without a true No-Movement clause, as he has a limited No-Trade in which he can submit a 10-team list of destinations. This gives the team some flexibility to make a move they couldn’t with the others barring a waiver. Hjalmarsson carries a $4.1MM cap hit, which alone is insufficient, but in addition to Kruger and possibly others would get the Blackhawks where they need to be.

If it potentially takes Hjalmarsson, Kruger, and van Riemsdyk – two of Chicago’s top-four defenseman and a key penalty killer – along with goalie Scott Darling, already a cap casualty this off-season, to get under the salary cap for next season, is Bowman’s system really still working? Perhaps more than any other team in the NHL, Chicago is hoping for an unexpected bump in the salary cap for 2017-18. If that doesn’t happen, the Expansion Draft could just be the beginning of the Blackhawk’s shedding of key players this summer.

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

With the Penguins up two games to zero in the Stanley Cup Finals, the team’s success under the guidance of GM Jim Rutherford cannot be understated. Potential back-to-back championships following a long list of playoff disappointments and identity crises would all but erase the sting of many poor management decisions under former GM Ray Shero.

After the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the team has not looked back in the slightest offensively. They sat out and relished their summer last off-season with minimal movement, but this year Rutherford has decisions to make. Although the makeup of the team will surely be different come October, there are many options to be considered.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Sidney Crosby (NMC), Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Phil Kessel (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, Josh Archibald (RFA), Oskar Sundqvist (RFA), Jean-Sebastien Dea (RFA)

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Olli Maatta, Ian Cole, Brian Dumoulin (RFA), Derrick Pouliot (RFA), Justin Schultz (RFA), Frank Corrado (RFA), Tim Erixon (RFA), Stuart Percy (RFA)

Goalies:

Marc-Andre Fleury (NMC), Matt Murray

Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney, Tristan Jarry, Zach Aston-Reese, Thomas DiPauli, Teddy Blueger, Dominik Simon,  Jeff Taylor, Ethan Prow, Lukas Bengtsson, Sean Maguire

Key Decisions

To get the elephant in the room cleared aside, it seems a foregone conclusion that Marc-Andre Fleury will waive his No Movement Clause in order for the franchise to protect Matt Murray. This arrangement would suit him, as he performs far better statistically in a starting role, and it allows him to be “the guy” in a new city. If for some unforeseen reason Fleury opts against waiving his NMC, Rutherford will assuredly find a trade elsewhere prior to the expansion draft. At the end of the day, Murray, with two amazing playoff performances at only 23 years-old, is going nowhere.

The other four players who must be protected are those which will not give management any sleepless nights. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both future hall of famers playing prime hockey, providing great value for their contracts. Kessel, at his reduced rate, has absolutely exceeded expectations when his contract was shipped from Toronto. Kris Letang is the only player who some fans have balked out, as he has missed substantial chunks of time, consistently hitting LTIR and wasting cap dollars. Letang, however, is easily a top-10 defenseman in the league,. Watching how these playoffs have been far less decisive than last for Pittsburgh, there is no doubt the entire organization is willing to take the risk to have him return to the blueline.

The major decision right off the start will be whether Rutherford will decide to go with the 7 forwards-3 defensemen-1 goalie model, or the 8 total protected alternative. It seems apparent that most teams will opt for the former, because it provides protection to two additional players. The Penguins, however, are facing truly unique circumstances, and it seems slightly more likely that they will opt for the latter.

Assuming they go that route to protect their defensive corps (one of Justin Schultz/Olli Maatta), the decision at forward will not be an easy one. Beyond the big three up front who must be protected, there are a few names which could intrigue Vegas. Considering the cost to acquire him (James Neal), and his absolutely pivotal net-front presence, Patrick Hornqvist seems the safest bet to secure protection. Rutherford is a big fan, and many in management have placed a lot of faith in him. The downside of this, of course, is that it would leave Bryan Rust exposed. Rust has already made a name for himself in big games, with multiple game-winning and series-clinching goals. He has the same net-front mentality that Hornqvist does, and is five years his junior. Hornqvist is the more proven offensive commodity, but Rust’s 15 goals and 28 points are nothing to look down upon. In the wake of a potential loss of the hard nosed but unrestricted Chris Kunitz, this would be a painful blow to the team’s physicality. Thankfully, both Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel are exempt from selection, which helps solidify their top lines regardless of this decision.

The defense if the 4-4-1 model is adopted is quite easy to predict. Although Ian Cole has been a completely perfect shot-blocking minute muncher this playoff run, he is 28 years old and relatively ineffective at driving offense with speed. Assuming that Schultz re-signs and doesn’t command an absolute robbery of a contract, he will be protected. His playoff run has been mostly solid, if spotted with occasional mishap, and his 51 points last season was good for 6th among defenseman in the league, just behind the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith. That sort of production isn’t easily replaced, and especially considering Letang’s precarious health situation, he is the go-to offensive defenseman in his absence.

Maatta could certainly find himself on the outs, but it’s difficult to imagine him being exposed in the expansion draft. The team showed a great deal of confidence in him by inking him to a 6 year contract after limited sophomore season action, and his contract at $4.083 is certainly manageable. The 23 year-old two-way defender will certainly need to improve his skating to keep up with the high-flying organizational mentality, and there is the possibility his sluggishness has landed him in serious disfavor. If Rutherford were intent on moving on from Maatta, however, it would not be via expansion – he is too valuable a piece to lose for nothing. A trade is certainly a possibility, but the smart money is on the front office praying for a healthy summer of training and improvement for the young Finn.

It is certainly conceivable that the Penguins do opt for the 7-3-1 option, if they truly value Rust more than Schultz or Maatta. This would result in Rust, Scott Wilson, and one of Tom Kuhnhackl, Josh Archibald, and Carl Hagelin to be the additional protect-ees. (Hagelin’s $4 MM contract would likely make him a prime target for sacrifice under this scenario.) Maatta would be the likely claim in this potentiality, as he is less favored internally for purely stylistic reasons when contrasted with Schultz.

However, it seems more likely that Pittsburgh has already worked out a scenario between Fleury, his agent, and Vegas management regarding Marc-Andre Fleury. Rutherford’s lack of panic around the draft last year has led many to believe that this situation has already been handled, and that perhaps a sweetener will be thrown in for not claiming Bryan Rust or a young defenseman.

Projected Protection List

F Sidney Crosby (NMC)
F Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
F Phil Kessel (NMC)
F Patrick Hornqvist

D Kris Letang (NMC)
D Brian Dumoulin
D Justin Schultz
D Olli Maatta

G Matt Murray

If for whatever reason one of Maatta and Schultz is left to dry in the place of this prediction, the re-signing of Trevor Daley and perhaps even Ron Hainsey would likely follow suit. The loss of Rust would be difficult to sustain on an emotional level, as he has been a leader for the younger Wilkes-Barre call-ups since last season. But with young players like Zach Aston-Reese and Daniel Sprong looking to claim a roster spot in training camp next season, his offensive production would likely be easy to absorb. Ultimately, however, it seems probable that Fleury will be Vegas’ selection. Following his impressive resurgence in the first two round of the playoffs, and his difficult situation in Pittsburgh behind the legendary Matt Murray, it seems a fit that would work for all parties involved.

NHL Notes: Seabrook, Keith, Katchouk

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Could the Chicago Blackhawks be heading in the wrong direction? That’s what Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Potash suggests as he analyzes the failures of a quick playoff exit to the Nashville Predators this season. The writer speculates that general manager Stan Bowman has his work cut out for him. The team is loaded with No Movement Clauses and veterans wherever you look and the GM must look at his aging defense.

Brent Seabrook’s decline this year was noticeable. Potash claims the 32-year-old defender has lost a step on defense and his offense has declined as well. After a season in which he 14 goals in 2015-16, that number dropped to three goals this past year. Add to the fact that Seabrook only signed his 8-year, $55MM contract a year ago, the Blackhawks have to hope the blueliner can bounce back with a strong season next year. “I’ve got to be better. But I feel like I’ve got a lot of hockey left in me and a lot of good years ahead of me,” Seabrook said. “This summer’s going to be a tough summer. It’s going to be a battle to get ready to go and try and have a better year next year.”

Duncan Keith is another defender who struggled to stop the speed of the Predators in the playoffs. The 33-year-old still had a good year after scoring six goals and 45 assists, but he’s locked in until the 2022-23 season. “I want to have a good summer of training,” Keith said, “and doing my best to get to a point where I feel like when you train hard, you get confidence from that too your body feels good and you feel strong. That’s going to be my focus. I know I could have played better. I’m obviously a big part of this team, so when I don’t play my best, it’s going to affect my team. I know I need a good summer of training and I’ll be ready to do.”

If neither blueliner can bounce back, the Blackhawks will be weighed down by two large contracts for the very far future.

Potash also writes that Bowman must get center Jonathan Toews a proper power forward to work with. Toews in the three years previous teamed up with Brandon Saad, Bryan Bickell or Marian Hossa, who aided his success on the ice. With Saad and Bickell gone and Hossa’s demotion to the third line, Toews is struggling to score goals again, as he hasn’t scored one 5-on-5 goal in his last 11 playoff games.

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed their 2016 second-round pick Boris Katchouk to a three-year entry level contract today. The 6-foot-1 forward has played for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds in the Ontario Hockey League for the past three years, finishing a strong 2016-17 season in which he tallied 35 goals, 64 points and 48 penalty minutes. The 44th overall pick in the last draft finished second on his team in goals, and third in points. Katchouk has appeared in 141 OHL games.

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