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Poll: Toughest First-Round Opponent For Tampa Bay Lightning?

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It’s been months since any team in the East other than the Tampa Bay Lightning was considered to have any real chance at the top seed in the conference. The Lightning have been one of the most dominant regular season teams in recent memory, locking up the President’s Trophy more than two weeks ago and joining the 60-win club earlier this week.

What has also been clear for some time is that Tampa would be destined to face the Boston Bruins or Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round of the playoffs, as their two divisional rivals have been near the top of the league standings for much of the year and always on a collision course to play each other in round one due to the NHL’s current playoff format. Yet, it’s easy to forget that the Lightning too have to win in the first round. Many have taken it as a foregone conclusion that Tampa would advance, but upsets occur in sports and the Lighting are as susceptible to a collapse as any heavy favorites that have fallen in the past.

So who has the best chance to knock off the regular season champs? Well, the defending Stanley Cup winners would have been an ideal match-up, but the Washington Capitals pulled out of range of a wild card finish earlier this week and clinched the top seed in the Metropolitan Division with a win on Thursday. The New York Islanders, with their suffocating defensive style and stellar goaltending, also would have been an intriguing opponent, but they have also assured themselves of a non-wildcard spot. Finally, the star-studded Pittsburgh Penguins would have made for a difficult and highly entertaining series with the Bolts, but a win on Thursday night guaranteed that they cannot finish any lower than seventh in the conference.

That leaves three potential opponents for Tampa Bay in round one: the Carolina Hurricanes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Montreal Canadiens. Two of these three teams will make the playoffs – Carolina has clinched a playoff berth with a Thursday night victory – but only one will be lucky enough to land the second wild card spot and go up against the Lightning. Of these three, which one could pull off the eight seed upset?

The Hurricanes are on pace to finish seventh in the East and avoid Tampa and they cannot be caught by the Canadiens. However, if the the Blue Jackets pass by Carolina, the team would have to celebrate their first postseason in ten years by playing the Bolts. The ’Canes could give the Lightning problems with their ability to suppress shots, as they are the only team in the conference that allows less than 29 shots per game on average. A defense corps that is among the deepest and most talented in the league makes offense a struggle for the opposition and the added bonus of consistent play in net explains why Carolina is eighth-best in the league in goals against per game. Despite the franchise’s lack of postseason experience of late, Justin Williams and Jordan Staal are also major assets when it comes to playing smart, tough playoff hockey. The main concern for the Hurricanes though is that they have not been as successful offensively as they have been defensively. Despite leading the league in shots per game, the team is 16th in goals for per game and 20th on the power play and they’ve lacked game-breaking scoring talent this season outside of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. It’s impossible to expect to shutout Tampa Bay, so if Carolina can’t find some secondary scoring they could struggle against the Bolts.

As of now, Columbus looks like the favorite to finish eighth and play Tampa. That might not be what GM Jarmo Kekalainen expected when he added Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Adam McQuaid at the trade deadline, but those moves will certainly help anyway. The Blue Jackets franchise has never won a playoff series and doing so against this Lightning team would be a tall task. However, they have both considerable talent and a chip on their shoulder. Like Carolina, Columbus does not allow many shots nor many goals and additionally have the best penalty kill in the conference. Unlike Carolina, they also have a star goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky. The Jackets would need Bobrovksy to shake off past struggles in the postseason, but if he does the Vezina Trophy-winner could be a game-changer. Offensively, Columbus has had an up-and-down year but are currently 12th in goals for per game. Duchene and Dzingel are major additions to a forward unit that already included elite talent like Artemi Panarin and Cam Atkinson. Unfortunately, all of this ability up front has still not led to consistent offense nor has it cured a miserable power play. Failure to capitalize on opportunities could be the Achilles heel of this team.

Then there’s Montreal, who need some help to make the playoffs, but could make waves if they do. The Canadiens can only end up in the eighth seed, so it’s Tampa or bust. Montreal can never quite be counted out with Carey Price in net and Shea Weber on the blue line, but the question is whether the other pieces are there to pull off not one but four wins against the Bolts. To their credit, the Habs have been a very balanced, consistent team this season that is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to goals and shots for as well as goals and shots against. Their power play is dead last in the NHL, which is obviously not typical of a playoff team, but it’s hard to find many other holes in their game. The problem is that nothing jumps out as being good enough for a massive upset, either. If Max Domi and Tomas Tatar stay hot and Price stands on his head as usual, anything is possible, but the Canadiens have simply been a good team and anyone who beats the Lightning will need to be great. Can they step up?

What do you think? The standings might say Columbus is the most likely opponent for Tampa Bay at this point, but who would be the toughest match-up for the President’s Trophy winners?

Kenny Agostino Will Not Face Further Discipline From Player Safety

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As the Montreal Canadiens prepare to take on the Detroit Red Wings tonight, they are fortunate to do so with forward Kenny Agostino in the lineup. Agostino, who has carved out a nice role for himself with the Habs this season, received a match penalty game misconduct in the first period of the team’s match-up with Minnesota last night for a late hit on the Wild’s Eric Fehr. Yet, missing most of the game and leaving his team shorthanded appears to have been a fitting punishment for Agostino in the league’s eyes. Sportsnet’s Eric Engels reports that no further discipline will come from the Department of Player Safety and instead Agostino will take the ice this evening.

The incident in question occurred early in the first period of last night’s game in Montreal. Agostino hit Fehr with a late check along the boards, despite having enough time to slow up after Fehr had passed the puck away. Fehr fell against the boards in front of his own bench and hit his face on the way down (video). The veteran forward left the game and did not return. Wild head coach Bruce Boudreau told the media today that Fehr is out tonight against the Boston Bruins but due to soreness and not any long-term injury. Both Fehr and Agostino logged just 25 seconds of ice time apiece in the game due to their early collision. In addition to a game misconduct, Agostino earned a major penalty for interference, a penalty that was partially reduced by Minnesota defenseman Nick Seeler who came to the defense of his teammate and fought Agostino, but at the cost of an instigator penalty. Not long after Agostino’s exit, the Canadiens also lost Shea Weber, who was took a puck up high and left the game. Down two skaters for much of the game, Montreal somehow still held the Wild to one goal albeit in a 1-0 defeat.

In his defense, Agostino has no suspension history or past dealings with the Department of Player Safety. While his check on Fehr was certainly late, it was not a heavy or high hit with an intent to injure, but the unfortunate way that Fehr landed caused most of the damage. Although the league could have thrown the book at him for a late, careless hit that caused an injury, the decision not to further discipline Agostino with a fine or suspension seems fair.

Throughout most of his pro career, an absence by Agostino would not have mattered much to his teams. The former AHL standout struggled to earn play time in stops with the Calgary Flames, St. Louis Blues, and Boston Bruins, but has already set a career high in games played (28) and points (11) in Montreal. Agostino is still playing a limited bottom-six role, but improved physicality and extraordinary possession numbers have helped him lock up a spot in the Habs’ lineup. On a $700K two-way contract this season, the winger is a bargain for the Canadiens. However, the 26-year-old is surely looking forward to being a free agent again this summer following his current breakout campaign.

Central Notes: Saros, Subban, Fabbri, Anisimov

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The Nashville Predators have succeeded this year based on the play of Vezina Trophy winner Pekka Rinne’s play. While Rinne has posted a 14-5-1 record, a 1.96 GAA and a .929 save percentage, his backup Juuse Saros, who many felt might share net responsibilities with the 36-year-old Rinne this year, hasn’t fared nearly as well with an 8-5 record, a 3.14 GAA and a .893 save percentage.

However, while Saros’ numbers suggest that he’s struggling this season, head coach Peter Laviolette said Saturday that he believes that the team isn’t playing well when the 23-year-old is in net, according to The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required).

“I’m going to be perfectly honest. I think that we’ve played lousy in front of (Saros),” Laviolette said. “There’s got to be accountability to the 18 guys that go out in front of him. Just too many odd-man rushes, too many point-blank chances, and that’s got to stop. And when that stops, he’s going to feel better and look better in there. There’s just too much coming at him.”

While Vingan writes that there is some truth to the comment as the team has had some of their worst defensive showings with Saros in net, including losses to San Jose on Nov. 13, to St. Louis on Nov. 23 and Calgary on Dec. 8. However, when looking even deeper, Vingan notes that both goalies have faced the same number of quality shots per game and it’s just Rinne’s amazing play that has separated the two goaltenders.

  • Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos suggested (via The Athletic’s Adam Vingan)that the unknown injury that Nashville Predators defenseman P.K. Subban is dealing with has nothing to do with the suspected back injury that he dealt with two years ago. Subban has missed 15 games this year with the undisclosed injury, but Kypreos said that Subban could be out for a bit longer. “It’s a real conservative approach by Nashville to keep him out. They think a 50-plus (game) regular season for P.K. could benefit him,” Kypreos said Saturday night on Hockey Night in Canada.
  • Lou Korac of NHL.com writes that oft-injured forward Robby Fabbri said he still should have a better idea around Christmas of his timetable of returning from his separated shoulder injury. “We’re just taking it day by day. I’m listening to the shoulder. What I do that day depends on how I wake up feeling and how I felt from the day before.”
  • Jon Lieser of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that while he’s not playing today, Chicago Blackhawks forward Artem Anisimov is close to returning to action. The 30-year-old should be eligible to be activated off IR before Tuesday’s game as he continues his recovery from a concussion suffered by a hit from Montreal’s Shea Weber on Dec. 9. “He looks like he’s closer to coming back, so hopefully he can,” coach Jeremy Colliton said at the morning skate. “I haven’t heard that he’s ready-ready, but we think he’s not far away.”

Atlantic Notes: Kotkaniemi, Nyquist, Pysyk, Petrovic, Kulak

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With countries releasing their preliminary rosters for the World Junior Championships, many teams must make some decisions on whether they intend to send some of their young prospects to World Juniors and interrupt their careers. The Montreal Canadiens could be one of those teams as they have a tough decision to make on Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who is on the Canadiens’ roster.

While on the surface it would be obvious the team would keep him, the team did allow defenseman Victor Mete to leave the team last year and play in the World Juniors. Mete, however, was struggling and was already losing playing time in Montreal. Kotkaniemi is in a similar boat as he started strong, but has just two points in the past eight games and has hit a “rookie wall.”

However, TSN’s Dan Robertson reports that general manager Marc Bergevin met the media this afternoon and stated that he’s 95 percent sure that Kotkaniemi won’t play in the WJC. The 18-year-old has three goals and 14 points in 29 games.

  • The impressive play the Detroit Red Wings have gotten from Gustav Nyquist causes many long-term questions. Nyquist, who is on pace for a career season as the 29-year-old already has seven goals and 26 points in 29 games is in the final year of a four-year, $19MM deal he signed back in 2015, could be looking for another big contract. The question that MLive’s Ansar Khan wonders is whether Detroit will consider bringing back Nyquist. It’s likely he will be asking for $5MM per year for three or four years. With the team in the middle of a rebuild, there is no guarantee the Red Wings will consider signing Nyquist a priority, although the team is also well known to give out money to veterans.
  • With the Seattle expansion draft on teams’ radars for the next few years, The Athletic’s George Richards (subscription required) writes that nothing worked out last time for the Florida Panthers who made a side deal to protect two defensemen by sending both Jon Marchessault and Reilly Smith to Vegas in the expansion draft. The team’s plan was to protect both Mark Pysyk and Alexander Petrovic. However, neither has been a key member of the team’s defense since then and both may not be on the roster by the time the next expansion draft rolls around.
  • After being traded from Calgary to Montreal and finding himself in the AHL, defenseman Brett Kulak could have considered his situation dire. However, Kulak has since been recalled and has found himself a key piece to the Canadiens’ defense and is paired next to Shea Weber, which looks like a perfect fit, according to Pat Hickey of the Montreal Gazette. “He was playing in the NHL last year, so it was not like I got a guy from the East Coast Hockey League,” said general manager Marc Bergevin. “He’s an NHL defenceman. Our scouting staff liked him because of the way the game is going. He’s a good skater.”

Minor Transactions: 11/27/18

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Another day, another 10-game schedule for the NHL that will start with an intriguing matchup between the San Jose Sharks and Buffalo Sabres. Jack Eichel and company will try to prove once again that they belong in the conversation for the Atlantic Division crown as they look for their tenth consecutive win, while Erik Karlsson and the Sharks are just trying to stay above water. As teams prepare for tonight’s festivities, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves around the league.

  • Mark Borowiecki has been moved to injured reserve, though he already hasn’t played in six days. The bruising Ottawa Senators defenseman is out with an undisclosed injury and will be eligible to return as soon as he is healthy enough to do so.
  • The Montreal Canadiens have activated captain Shea Weber, and will have him in the lineup tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes. Weber’s recovery went even better than expected and the Canadiens will welcome him back several weeks before his initial timeline suggested. The veteran defenseman will be a huge boost for the team as they look to continue their relatively strong start.
  • Tim Gettinger has been sent down by the New York Rangers, returned after just a day at the NHL level. The club has been bouncing Gettinger up and down for the past week, using him as an extra body for the past couple of games but giving him very little ice time. The 20-year old is still looking for his first NHL point.
  • The Buffalo Sabres have recalled Lawrence Pilut for the second time this season, and could get him into the lineup given Zach Bogosian’s absence from practice today. The young Swedish defenseman has great offensive upside, but will need to fight to get a full-time spot with the Sabres.
  • Antti Raanta should be fine to start tonight for the Arizona Coyotes, but the team has recalled Hunter Miska from the minor leagues just in case. Carrying three goaltenders for the time being, Miska is likely headed back to the Tucson Roadrunners after the game.
  • Michael Raffl has been activated from injured reserve by the Philadelphia Flyers, and is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. Raffl hasn’t played since October 22nd when he suffered a lower-body injury against the Colorado Avalanche.

Eastern Notes: Nylander, Zuccarello, Weber, Kovar

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With just over a week remaining in the Toronto Maple Leafs’ deadline to sign William Nylander contract this season, many people are voicing their opinions on the impasse. Among them is Don Cherry, who chimed in on the contract negotiations Saturday on Hockey Night in Canada. The former coach said that Nylander isn’t competing with the contracts of John Tavares or the future deal of Auston Matthews, but Cherry believes he is as good as Mitch Marner and wants to make sure that Marner won’t make more money than him down the road.

“Here’s the deal, it’s not Tavares and it’s not Matthews he’s thinking of, he’s thinking of Marner,” Cherry said. “What happens if he signs a six-year contract and Marner gets another million or million and more? He’s not worried about the other two guys, but he thinks he’s as good as Marner. What he’s worried about is that he signs a contract and Marner signs [for] a couple more million and he’s stuck with the contract.”

Cherry advises Nylander to agree to a bridge deal as he believes that there is no way that Nylander can beat Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas, who must prove to the team and the city that he is worthy of the title and isn’t going to give in to him.

“You’re not going to beat Dubas because for Dubas this is his one shot, he can’t give in on this one,” Cherry said.

  • Newsday’s Colin Stephenson writes that the New York Rangers scratched forward Mats Zuccarello Saturday as a precaution, but head coach David Quinn insists that the 31-year-old veteran is fine. He says that he didn’t want to play him in back-to-back games after recently returning from a groin injury. “Two games, back-to-back, so we’re just being cautious,’’ Quinn said, adding that Zuccarello felt fine after Friday’s game and declared himself available for Saturday. But the plan always had been to not play him in both weekend games. “We kind of chose, get him in, play him [Friday], not go back-to-back.’’
  • As had been rumored earlier, John Lu of TSN reports that Montreal Canadiens captain Shea Weber will make his season debut Tuesday against Carolina, barring a setback, after missing the first half of the season after offseason knee surgery. The team will consider how Weber feels after Monday’s practice, followed by a final assessment by team doctors. Weber hasn’t played in a games since Dec. 16, 2017.
  • Despite a report that Jan Kovar has been contemplating a return to Europe after failing to make the New York Islanders and finally agreeing to a PTO with the Providence Bruins, the 28-year-old has decided to stay with the AHL team for now, according to the Providence Journal’s Mark Divver. The scribe writes that Kovar took some time off to evaluate his options and returned to Providence for Saturday’s game against Lehigh Valley. Kovar has four goals and nine points in 10 games while with Providence, but no NHL team has come forward with an NHL contract.

Snapshots: Ottawa, Weber, McLeod

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The Ottawa Senators plan to build a new arena in the Lebreton Flats area near the downtown core has hit a snag, as the National Capital Commission has given a January deadline to fix what they call “internal partnership issues” among those looking to develop the land. Ottawa mayor Jim Watson was relatively blunt in his assessment of the situation and message to the Senators and Trinity Development Group:

A lot of work has gone into all of the preparatory documents, remediation, first nations consultation, the work that our city planning department has put into the whole exercise. So there’s a sense of disappointment and also a sense of frustration in the two groups that make up RendezVous LeBreton.

As I said in the board meeting, they have to get their act together plain and simple. Otherwise I think we’re going to have to move on in January.

The Senators currently play quite a bit outside the city center at an arena that is difficult for many fans to access, and have proposed a move closer to downtown for years. This announcement has to be taken as an extremely disappointing outcome at this stage, and will put a damper on any excitement that the project had built. The team now has just a few weeks to get their leadership in order, or risk losing the project altogether.

  • In Montreal, things are looking much brighter. The Canadiens are expecting captain Shea Weber to make his season debut very soon, and could even see him join the lineup on Tuesday night. That’s quite a bit before the mid-December timeline that Weber was initially given, and should give the team a huge boost. Montreal has already exceeded expectations to start the year, and will now welcome back their best defenseman for a playoff push that seems much more realistic now than it did a few months ago. As we examined this morning, Weber’s return could also mean that the team has to move someone else out. Who that will be is still to be decided.
  • Cody McLeod scored a goal last night for the first time since joining the New York Rangers, but subsequently injured his hand in a fight later in the game. That injury has now been revealed to be a fracture, meaning he’ll be out indefinitely. The team will be without his toughness and physicality as he deals with the injury.

Montreal Canadiens Facing Difficult Decision On Defense

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The Montreal Canadiens are coming off another loss, this time at the hands of the New Jersey Devils who scored five goals in the first two periods. Montreal now sits fifth in the Atlantic Division with 26 points and a -3 goal differential. That’s not very impressive, but it does at least keep them in the playoff race as they await the return of their captain. Shea Weber is ahead of schedule and could be back on the ice before long, which while obviously good news also likely means the end of someone else’s tenure on the NHL roster. That’s what Eric Engels details in his latest for Sportsnet, breaking down the various options that the Canadiens have to make room for Weber.

The most startling of these options may be the idea that the Canadiens could waive Karl Alzner, less than 18 months after signing him to a five-year contract worth more than $23MM. The team has already sat the veteran defenseman in the press box for most of the season, getting him into just six games over their first 22. Importantly though, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet adds in his latest 31 Thoughts column that the Canadiens have been looking to trade a defenseman instead of risking them on waivers. In Alzner’s case it doesn’t seem like much of a risk given his high salary, but for some of the others—Jordie Benn, David Schlemko and Xavier Ouellet are mentioned as trade options in Engels’ piece—there would certainly be teams willing to take a shot.

Montreal is not in a place to be giving away assets for free, given their current balancing act on the line between competitiveness and concern. The team has played well this season to say in the mix and has some promising chemistry forming up front between Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin. Still, even with the emergence of Jesperi Kotkaniemi the team is lacking real impact prospects and could need to try and retool over the next few seasons.

So a trade, given the circumstances, seems the most beneficial option. Whether that will come to pass is still to be seen, especially given the fact that the rest of the league can see the situation that GM Marc Bergevin is in. Noah Juulsen’s injury may buy him a bit more time, but at some point something will have to happen on the Montreal blue line. Defense-needy teams will be watching closely.

Shea Weber Ahead Of Schedule With Injury Rehab

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After 33-year-old Shea Weber underwent knee surgery this off-season, the Montreal Canadiens announced an expected return date of mid-December and even that seemed optimistic. Yet, Weber practiced with the team for the first time this week and now a mid-December return looks very realistic if not excessive. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports that Weber is considered to be “two weeks ahead” of schedule and could possibly make his season debut by the end of November or first week of December.

Weber is entering his third season with the Canadiens since coming over from the Nashville Predators in the blockbuster trade that sent P.K. Subban packing. Weber’s first season in Montreal was a huge success; the six-time All-Star registered 42 points and a +20 rating in 78 games. Last season was quite different, as the torn meniscus in his right knee limited Weber to just 26 games.

When Weber returns to the ice, it will likely be more than eleven months since his last game action. The Athletic’s Arpon Basu asks the fair question of whether or not the Canadiens should expect Weber to be the same player when he returns. Perhaps the even better questions should be just how much Montreal should ask of Weber once he is deemed healthy. Normally, a player of Weber’s age and experience is often expected to jump right back in to his regular role. However, Weber still has eight years left remaining on his contract and the Habs need to consider his long-term health just as much as his immediate impact. Allowing the veteran to ease back into his role gives the team the best chance to once again enjoy his Norris-caliber play, even if it is not this season. Montreal is certainly excited to have Weber back, but considering how well the team has played early on this year, they can afford to give their captain all the time he needs to get back to full strength.

Atlantic Notes: Weber, Athanasiou, Pysyk, Kovar

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The Montreal Canadiens have had a nice start to the season with an 8-5-3 record to start the season. However, more good news could be on the way as there was a Shea Weber sighting today as the veteran defenseman took the ice this morning along with David Schlemko, Brendan Gallagher, Noah Juulsen and Carey Price, according to TVA’s Renaud Lavoie.

The team captain was originally scheduled to return sometime in December, so it still may be a while before he fully returns, but this is a step in the right direction for the veteran. Weber could add another key element to a young team that seems to have found some offense from a number of young names and gotten some solid goaltending from Price. Adding Weber to their blueline could only make the team stronger as they start hitting the middle of their season schedule.

  • The Detroit Red Wings like what they see from winger Andreas Athanasiou so far this year. What the 24-year-old has always lacked was competive consistency, which they are finally starting to see everyday, according to MLive’s Ansar Khan. Athanasiou has always had the speed that many people felt he could put up big numbers if he figured things out. However, the best the Red Wings have gotten out of him has been 18 goals, two years ago. Through 13 games so far this season, he already has six goals and nine points and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. “I know those chances are going to come, so it’s just playing hard when I get out there and capitalizing on those chances,” Athanasiou said.
  • George Richards of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Florida Panthers defenseman Mark Pysyk remains a healthy scratch for the seventh straight time despite being medically cleared to play again on Thursday, but can’t seem to work his way back into Florida’s lineup. He was knocked out of the lineup after taking a hit from Washington’s Alex Ovechkin on Oct. 19. The hope is he will be in the lineup on Sunday.
  • Jan Kovar was brought overseas with the intention of plugging him in the New York Islanders’ lineup. Two months later has the 28-year-old Kovar playing on a PTO with the Providence Bruins of the AHL, but faring quite well with five goals and nine points in eight games. Could a promotion be in order? “Smart player,” said Boston Bruins general manager Don Sweeney (via Providence Journal’s Mark Divver). “I really like the skills, top of the circles down in the offensive zone. What probably surprises me a little bit, coming from (the KHL), is how gritty he is, as far as playing in high traffic, possession.”
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning announced that defenseman Anton Stralman and forward Adam Erne were out tonight and are listed as day-to-day, both with upper-body injuries. With the return of defenseman Victor Hedman, it looked as if the team’s defense was almost healthy. Instead, the team will be without Stralman for the time being, who was the one to fill many of Hedman’s minutes. Slater Koekkoek remains in the lineup.

 

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