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Shea Weber

The Salary Cap Implications Of A Shea Weber Early Retirement

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When Shea Weber signed a 14-year, $110MM offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012, everyone knew right away that it would end badly. Yes, Weber was 27 years old and one of the top defensemen in the league, but the contract was top-heavy and carried a $7.86MM cap hit through his age-40 season. The chances of him playing to a level matching that value over a full 14 years was very slim. The Flyers knew this and specifically structured it in a way that they hoped would scare the Nashville Predators and frugal GM David Poile away – it didn’t. The Predators had just watched Ryan Suter walk in free agency and couldn’t afford to let Weber leave as well. They matched the deal and held on to their superstar defenseman.

When Weber was then traded to the Montreal Canadiens for P.K. Subban in 2016, the risk in Weber’s contract increased exponentially. The league had since banned all similarly long-term contracts – setting a limit of seven years on the open market and eight years for an extension –  nevertheless the front-loaded, cap-circumventing type that Weber had signed. To combat teams continuing to front-load contracts, the NHL implemented salary cap recapture penalties. This system punishes teams for lengthening contracts with low-salary seasons in order to lower the cap hit during prime years by issuing a salary cap charge if the player retires prior to the end of the contract, thereby negating the years that lowered his cap hit. The calculation is the difference in total salary and total cap hit over the course of the contract with which the player played with the team, divided by the number of years remaining on the contract after retirement. In Weber’s case, the scenario looks like this:

Year           Team           Cap Hit           Salary           Difference
2012-13        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2013-14        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2014-15        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2015-16        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2016-17        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2017-18        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2018-19        MTL             $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2019-20       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2020-21       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2021-22       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2022-23       MTL*           $7.857MM        $3MM          -$4.857MM
2023-24       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2024-25       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2025-26       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM

So far over the course of Weber’s contract, both Nashville and Montreal have paid him far beyond what his cap hit would suggest. If Weber was to retire today, they would both be penalized. Nashville’s total penalty is $24.572MM, while Montreal’s is fluid. However, next season marks a drop for Weber below his cap number for the remaining eight years of his contract. Now, Weber is not going to retire this off-season. However, the chances that he retires early are very high. Earlier this week, it was reported that Weber had undergone a second off-season surgery and would likely be out until mid-season. Many expected when Weber was traded to Montreal that he still had many years left of strong play in him, but it appears that the deterioration of his body has already begun. Facing a decreasing salary for the remainder of his contract and concerns about his long-term health, it would be no surprise to see Weber retire in the next two years or so nevertheless by the end of the remaining eight years. By year, here is how the penalties would play out for both Nashville and Montreal:

If Weber retires before:      Penalty per year – NSH         Penalty per year – MTL
2019-20                                          $3.51MM                                              $918K
2020-21                                          $4.1MM                                                $762K
2021-22                                          $4.91MM                                              $543K
2022-23                                          $6.14MM                                             $215K
2023-24                                           $8.19MM                                             None
2024-25                                           $12.29MM                                           None
2025-26                                           $24.57MM                                           None

Obviously, the Predators have a lot to lose if Weber retires early. It is very unlikely that Weber, if he makes it that far, is likely to retire with one or even two years left on his contract. At that point, it is likely the Canadiens would just place him on long-term injured reserve to finish his career, as has become a growing trend in the NHL. However, if Weber is unable to get over the injuries that have plagued him in Montreal, could he call it quits within the next few years and stick Nashville with a $3.5-$5MM yearly penalty? Absolutely. It is a scary possibility for the Predators and a situation worth watching as Weber battles back from injury yet again next season and beyond.

All salary and cap figures are approximations. Data courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

Shea Weber Out Five To Six Months Following Knee Surgery

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The Montreal Canadiens have been hit with injury after injury that will take several players out for the beginning of the 2018-19 season. What they didn’t need was another surgery for one of their best players, and yet today announced that Shea Weber will be out for five to six months. Weber underwent knee surgery to repair a meniscal tear on June 19th, and will be out until mid-December. The team had already announced earlier this offseason that Paul Byron would miss six months after shoulder surgery, prospect Joni Ikonen needs six months to come back from a knee injury, and Andrew Shaw won’t be ready for the start of the season due to his own knee surgery in April.

While all three of those prior injury updates hurt, the Weber news is crushing for the Canadiens as they try to bounce back in 2018-19. The team struggled tremendously without Weber in the lineup last season, and simply don’t have anyone on the roster who can provide the kind of impact expected of him. The blue line will have to rely on veterans like Karl Alzner and Jeff Petry, while hoping young Victor Mete and Noah Juulsen can make an impact right away. Weber will be 33 when he makes his return, and played just 26 games last season while dealing with a foot injury.

The Canadiens maintain that they’re trying to make the playoffs this season, and goaltender Carey Price is just entering his eight-year $84MM contract extension. Still, after holding onto the third-overall pick to take Jesperi Kotkaniemi and with rumors persisting about a potential Max Pacioretty trade, the team seems to be headed into a sort of mini-rebuild. After spending very little on the free agent market—bringing back Tomas Plekanec on a $3.5MM performance bonus-laden deal was their biggest commitment—the team still has nearly $13MM in cap space with some restricted free agents left to sign.

The most frustrated in the whole situation is likely Weber, who last played on December 16th, 2017 meaning it may be an entire year before he’s back on the ice for Montreal. That’s an enormous weight to carry when earning a huge salary, though as of this season the Canadiens financial burden did reduce some. Weber is owed just $6MM this season and $30MM over the next eight years, despite carrying a cap hit of just under $7.86MM through 2025-26.

Montreal Would Rather Trade Pacioretty Than Extend Him

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While it’s common knowledge the Montreal Canadiens have been considering trading their captain Max Pacioretty. The 10-year Canadiens’ veteran survived the trade deadline, but TSN’s Insider Bob McKenzie said on his most recent TSN Hockey Bobcast to expect Montreal to shop Pacioretty as the team must find a way to re-tool their roster, since rebuilding with the contracts of both Carey Price and Shea Weber is impossible.

Pacioretty, who has one more year on a reasonable six-year, $27MM deal he signed in 2012, had a major drop in performance this year. After tallying 30 or more goals for four straight seasons, Pacioretty managed just 17 in a forgettable 2017-18.

“I don’t believe that the way things currently stand, barring a change, that Montreal wants to make a long-term commitment to Pacioretty,” McKenzie said. “He’s got a year left on his deal. I think that they want to explore some different options and that possibly trading Pacioretty would satisfy those… I think Pacioretty, in a perfect world, would love to stay on Montreal on so many levels. I think he considers it home now, and he loves playing for the Canadiens. But I’m not sure that it’s a marriage that’s necessarily working at this point, so I would expect Pacioretty’s name to be front and center in a lot of trade talk between now and the NHL draft.”

The bigger issue is what the team hopes to get back in return for him. His value is presently quite low, so it seems unlikely the team will get a major return for the 29-year-old.

“But by the same token, they can’t give him away,” McKenzie added. “And he didn’t have a great year this year. The Montreal Canadiens didn’t have a great year. But he’s still a pretty consistent goal scorer, and you can’t give these guys away.”

However, with the team in desperate need for help at the center position, the team may need to use Pacioretty as a trade chip to fill that hole in their lineup. At the moment, the team had been using Jonathan Drouin and Phillip Danault as their top two centers. Neither belongs in those spots as the team has been trying to convert Drouin into a center, which hasn’t gone well so far, while Danault may just not be a top-six player. To make matters worse, the Canadiens have the third pick in the upcoming draft, but this year’s crop of prospects is weak at the center position. And with few other trade chips, they may have little to no choice, especially if the team is hesitant to sign Pacioretty to a long-term extension next year.

Shea Weber To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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March 13: Weber has finally undergone surgery, and will now face a recovery period of six months. That still leaves him with time to spare to get ready for the start of next season, but does make it a little more risky should he face any setbacks. Weber’s surgery was completed in Wisconsin, by Dr. Robert Anderson.

February 22: Shea Weber will not be able to help the Montreal Canadiens again this season. The high-priced defenseman will undergo surgery to repair a tendon in his left foot, and will be shut down for the remainder of 2017-18. Weber is expected to be ready for the start of the 2018-19 regular season.

Shea WeberThis ends a long struggle for Weber, who hasn’t played since December 16th and will end the year with just 26 games. In those 26 he was off to a great start offensively, with six goals and 16 points while playing more than 25 minutes a night. His absence left a huge hole in the Canadiens lineup, one that hasn’t been able to be filled by any of the other names on the scoresheet.

Unfortunately for Montreal, even making the decision to shut him down now comes with some distressing outlooks. Weber will be 33 when next season starts, and about 10 months removed from a regular season NHL game. He’ll be coming off one of his first major injuries, and will still have eight years on his current contract that comes with a cap hit of nearly $7.9MM. It’s tough to project anything but a decline for the perennial Norris candidate, which could cause Montreal to take another step backwards.

The Canadiens have had a terrible season, but committing to anything but a playoff run for 2018-19 seems impossible with Weber’s contract and Carey Price just starting his eight-year $84MM extension. The team will have to try and find a way to get better, and though Weber’s return will help it’s not guaranteed to get them there by itself.

The next few days will set the tone for next season, with names like Max Pacioretty and Alex Galchenyuk still floating out their as possible trade bait. Both players are under contract for next year and could be part of the solution, though carry enough value to bring back several future assets. Whether draft picks and prospects are the target of GM Marc Bergevin is still to be seen, as his team looks like it needs more immediate help.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Examining Salary Cap Recapture In The Shea Weber Trade

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*This story was originally published on June 30th, 2016 just days after the trade occurred. With Weber shut down due to a season-ending foot injury in 2018, it seems relevant to bump it to the top of the site. While the injury is nowhere near career-threatening, it will obviously bring the trade back to the forefront of debate in Montreal. This piece gives additional context to the implications that trade has for both franchises.

One element that was lost in the frenzy that was Wednesday afternoon was the potential salary cap recapture repercussions for Nashville stemming from yesterday’s Shea Weber for P.K. Subban trade.  Despite the fact that Weber is gone, the Predators could still very well be on the hook for a sizable cap hit several years down the road.

The structure of Weber’s contract is now outlawed starting from the 2013 Collective Bargaining Agreement.  The overwhelming majority of his salary is paid out in the first five years of his 14 year deal with four years at just $1MM in salary tacked on at the end.  That was done, of course, to lower the cap hit.

The CBA instituted a cap recapture penalty as a way of penalizing those who, in their view, openly circumvented the salary cap by adding on years with such a low salary that it couldn’t reasonably be expected that the player would actually play out the full contract.  In Weber’s case, he makes $106MM of the salary in the first 10 years of his contract and just a total of $4MM in the final four years combined.

Simply put, the salary cap recapture calculation looks at the sum of the salary paid to the player compared to the cap hit they were charged over the same time period.  Any cap savings over that time become eligible for recapture.

In Nashville’s case, they paid $56MM in salary while accruing a total cap charge of $31,428,572.  The difference – $24,571,428 – becomes eligible for recapture.

Should Weber retire at any point prior to the conclusion of his contract in 2025-26, the Predators would be subsequently be imposed a cap recapture penalty equivalent to that amount divided by the number of years remaining on the contract.  If Weber were to retire with just 1 season left on his deal, they would have to take the entire $24+MM penalty in 2025-26.  If he were to retire with, say, four years remaining though, that total would be divided by 4, resulting in a cap recapture penalty of $6,142,857 in each of those years up until the conclusion of 2025-26.

Suffice it to say, GM David Poile is taking on a big potential risk down the road if Weber does indeed decide to retire before his contract expires.  Had Weber stayed with the Preds longer, eventually the difference between salary and cap charge would have shrunk, lowering their potential exposure to recapture.  But clearly Poile feels the reward is worth it to add Subban to an already dynamic group of defensemen in Nashville.

Morning Notes: Nash, Karlsson, Weber

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Trade deadline rumors are coming fast and furious these days, and NHL Network analyst Brian Lawton took to Twitter to express his thoughts on several topics this morning. Lawton contends that a deal for Rick Nash will definitely happen, and it’s just up to the New York Rangers at this point to decide which package is the best offer. There have been previous reports that linked Nash to Nashville, Dallas, Winnipeg, Columbus and Boston, though it’s not clear who has actually put forward an offer for the veteran winger.

Lawton also states that Ryan McDonagh is “closer to being moved then [sic] anyone realizes” which make earlier reports that the Boston Bruins are still in the mix for the New York captain that much more interesting. The Rangers are clearly one of this year’s biggest sellers, looking to give themselves something of a new slate to work with in 2018-19.

  • Erik Karlsson rumors have dominated the last few days, and Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) notes that even the Nashville Predators have checked in on the Ottawa Senators’ captain. One might assume that Nashville would have no interest given their glut of outstanding defensemen, but as LeBrun writes, GM David Poile “leaves no stone unturned.” Asking on the kind of return the Senators are expecting for Karlsson would be good information to have even if the Predators have no intention of acquiring him, which can often lead to speculation of interest where there is none (though, that can’t necessarily be said for this specific case).
  • LeBrun also notes on Twitter that interest is picking up on Michael Grabner, and that teams are “coming harder at NYR today it seems.” That increased interest could lead to an incredibly exciting weekend for Rangers fans looking to the future.
  • Unfortunately it looks like Shea Weber’s season may be over, as Darren Dreger of TSN reports that the team will update his status later today. Weber has consulted two specialists in recent days, and with Montreal clearly out of the playoffs could aim at the beginning of next season as a return date.

Montreal Canadiens “Very Active” As Deadline Approaches

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The Montreal Canadiens, losers of four of their last five games including three at the hands of the Boston Bruins, are now 19-22-6 on the season and well out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. In his latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, Elliotte Friedman reports that GM Marc Bergevin is more active than normal trying to “get something going.”

Friedman lists only Carey Price, Shea Weber, Victor Mete and Jonathan Drouin as unlikely to be traded, making the rest of the roster ripe for speculation. Max Pacioretty has obviously been in the news quite a bit recently, something Alex Galchenyuk has dealt with for years. There are also lesser-known names like Paul Byron, Andrew Shaw and Brendan Gallagher who would all draw interest as well as expiring contracts for Tomas Plekanec, Jakub Jerabek and Antti Niemi.

Montreal has had a season to forget, but Friedman points out that everyone in the league can see what Colorado is doing this year. After putting up historically bad numbers in 2016-17, the Avalanche are now on a ten game winning streak and find themselves right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff run. Montreal knows first hand what that bounce-back can be, after struggling without an injured price in 2015-16 only to return to the playoffs a year later.

If anything, the Canadiens are more likely to reload than rebuild, as Price’s huge extension kicks in next season and there is plenty of other money tied up in Weber, Drouin, Jeff Petry and Karl Alzner. Even if they do move out some significant pieces, you can bet Montreal won’t be tearing down the whole thing.

Minor Transactions: 12/27/17

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As the NHL gets back to its regularly scheduled programming today, league rosters will start to thaw after the holiday season. At 12:00am on December 28th, teams will be once again allowed to trade, waive and loan any player on the active roster. For now, we’ll have to make do with recalls from the minor leagues.

Minor Transactions: 12/24/17

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After a 15-game schedule on Saturday and a three-day holiday break, you would expect little action over the next few days, but a few teams made a few roster moves before starting their vacations. Let’s see if more are coming …

  • The Ottawa Senators made four roster moves this morning, sending goaltender Daniel Taylor, defensemen Andreas Englund and Ben Harpur as well as forward Chris Didomenico to the Belleville Senators of the AHL. Taylor was recalled due to the unavailability of goaltender Craig Anderson. DiDomenico was brought up Friday after injuries to Zack Smith and Bobby Ryan and played in 8:47 of ice time in Saturday’s 1-0 loss to Florida. Englund was recalled after the team lost forward Gabriel Dumont and Harpur has been up and down all season covering the team’s many injuries. Harpur played in 14:22 on Saturday, while Englund and Taylor were scratches.
  • The Montreal Canadiens assigned defenseman Brett Lernout to the Laval Rocket of the AHL Sunday morning. Lernout got into Saturday’s game to fill in defensive injuries with Shea Weber out, and played 14:43 of ice time and getting two hits in. He was recalled on Thursday.
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets made three moves of their own, assigning forwards Jordan Schroeder, Tyler Motte and defenseman Cameron Gaunce to the Cleveland Monsters of the AHL. Both Schroeder and Motte were recalled on emergency loans Saturday for the team’s 2-1 shootout win over the Philadelphia Flyers. Both played in the game. Gaunce had been recalled on Dec. 17, but didn’t play in a game.
  • The Los Angeles Kings made a couple of moves Sunday, as they assigned defenseman Kevin Gravel and goaltender Jack Campbell to the Ontario Reign of the AHL. Neither player got into a game with the Kings. Campbell was an emergency backup last night as backup Darcy Kuemper was unavailable. Gravel was recalled after the team placed defenseman Christian Folin on injured reserve.

Shea Weber “Shut Down” By Montreal Canadiens

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The Montreal Canadiens were without top defenseman Shea Weber at practice today, and afterwards coach Claude Julien told reporters including Irfaan Gaffar of Sportsnet that they would “shut [Weber] down for a bit” following a re-injuring of his foot. Weber had missed several games with the injury already this season, but was trying to play through the pain. Instead, the team will give him some time to try and get back to full health.

In 26 games this season, Weber has been arguably the most important player on the team for Montreal. Logging more than 25 minutes a game and registering 16 points, Weber was has been the most consistent defender on the club. Losing him for another long stretch could be devastating to the team, who still find themselves fighting to stay relevant in the playoff picture.

Weber has been relatively healthy throughout his career, but is 32 now and will finish with his lowest number of games in a season since 2007-08 (excluding the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, in which he played all 48 contests). That’s something to monitor closely by the Canadiens, as the All-Star defender still has eight additional seasons remaining on his contract, with a cap hit of $7.86MM. If he continues to miss time as he enters his mid-thirties, the contract could start to be more and more troublesome for Montreal.

How long Weber will miss this time isn’t clear, but it could mean additional NHL time for Victor Mete after the World Juniors end in January. Mete had slowly been removed from the Montreal lineup as other options became available, but with Weber out the team could try to inject Mete’s offense back in. The Canadiens could also return Mete to the London Knights of the OHL after the tournament—who could actually look to move the defender to a more competitive team for the remainder of the OHL season as they look to rebuild their program after several seasons of graduating players.

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