Nikita Zaitsev

Deadline Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs

February 11, 2019 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 6 Comments

With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we keep going with the Atlantic Division, here is a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have already made a major move. GM Kyle Dubas got a jump start on the deadline market and acquired Los Angeles Kings defenseman Jake Muzzin two weeks ago. It was a much-needed addition of a top-pair caliber defender to a team that had concerning depth. However, Toronto also surrendered their 2019 first-round pick and arguably two of their top five prospects in the process.

With a major asset added and significant trade capital lost, should Dubas and the Maple Leafs refrain from making any more moves? Absolutely not. Toronto has the luxury of cap space this season and it will be a very, very long time before that happens again. The team must be mindful of entry-level bonuses and the cap impact next year if they carry over, but should take advantage of this opportunity to spend. As good as the team has been this season, there are still holes in the lineup that can be filled. The Leafs are also trying to hold off the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens in the divisional race, but almost surely will face one or the other in the first round of the postseason and then, if they’re lucky, the league leading Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. The Atlantic Division is stacked and if Toronto wants to take advantage of a strong roster and ample cap space before an impending salary crunch potentially reshapes their roster this summer, they should be all-out buyers at the deadline. A Stanley Cup title is within reach, but reinforcements would certainly help.

Record

34-18-3, second in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$20.09MM in full-season cap hit, 1/3 used salary cap retention slots, 46/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: TOR 2nd, TOR 3rd, STL 4th, TOR 4th, TOR 5th, DAL 7th, TOR 7th
2020: TOR 1st, TOR 2nd, TOR 3rd, TOR 4th, TOR 6th, EDM 7th, SJ 7th, TOR 7th

Trade Chips

The Maple Leafs are more likely than not going to make several smaller moves as the deadline approaches rather than another Muzzin deal. Fortunately, that means that the team can likely get away with making young roster forwards Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson and top prospect defenseman Rasmus Sandin untouchable.

However, everything else will still be on the table. That includes more draft picks, although the team’s second-round selection this year will likely be difficult to pry away after losing their first-rounder already. More so, it includes several other intriguing prospects that belong to the team. Some believe that another high-end defensive prospect, Tim Liljegren, is also an untouchable for the Leafs, while others say that he can be had in the right deal. If Toronto is pursuing one of the top names at their positions of need and no longer has a first-round pick this year to offer, Liljegren could be the next-best thing to sellers. Fellow AHL defenseman, Calle Rosen, is having quite a year for the Marlies and could also draw interest. 2017 second-round pick Eemeli Rasanen, currently skating in the KHL, is an interesting trade possibility, as is OHL standout Mac Hollowell, a fourth-round pick last year.

Up front, Jeremy Bracco has established himself as the next impact young forward for the Maple Leafs, if he can survive that long. Bracco, a 2015 second-round pick, is enjoying a point-per-game campaign with the Marlies that is sure to have caught some eyes around the league. Toronto would hate to part with an affordable scoring option for next season, but offering up Bracco could go a long way in trade talks. Trevor Moore could also fight for a spot on the Leafs next year, but is older and has less upside and would hurt less to part with. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev is an intriguing junior prospect to keep an eye on, too.

The Maple Leafs are hoping that Boston College goaltender Joseph Woll, a 2016 third-round pick, will turn pro after his junior year and provide some upside and talent in the AHL. However, does that make Woll untouchable? If Toronto thinks he may return for his senior season at BC, they could be willing to move him. The team may also feel more strongly about another goalie prospect, WHL star Ian Scott, as their keeper of the future, making Woll more expendable. It’s doubtful that the team moves Woll, but there are factors that could convince them to part with the promising netminder for the right return.

Then there is a subset of the players that Toronto is hoping to use as trade chips at the deadline. While there are positions of need at the deadline, cap space moving forward is the most important asset for Toronto. The Maple Leafs have a near-impossible cap crunch coming this off-season and could benefit from moving out expensive long-term contracts for extraneous players. Defenseman Nikita Zaitsev is the main target; the 27-year-old has five seasons remaining at $4.5MM AAV and has regressed greatly this season. The Leafs will move him if at all possible. Forward Connor Brown, signed through next season at $2.1MM, has also seen his production slip this year and could be used in a hockey deal for a similar style rental.

Five Players To Watch For: D Tim Liljegren, D Calle Rosen, F Jeremy Bracco, D Nikita Zaitsev, F Connor Brown

Team Needs

1) Fourth-line Center: Last season, the Maple Leafs traded for Tomas Plekanec at the deadline. The year before, it was Brian Boyle and Eric Fehr. This is a team that loves to strengthen their checking line, particularly down the middle, and that is a need once again this season. It could be a need that is met very cheaply by any number of veteran two-way centers on expiring contracts. Players that fit that description aren’t often hard to come by. In fact, Fehr may even be available again if the Minnesota Wild fall out of the playoff race. Toronto has been connected to the Detroit Red Wings’ Luke Glendening, but the term on his contract is a concern. Another interesting possibility is the Chicago Blackhawks’ Marcus Kruger.

2) Right-shot Defenseman: Even after acquiring Muzzin, there is still talk that the team would like to add a natural right-handed defenseman. The team has decent depth in right shots in Zaitsev, Igor Ozhiganov, and Justin Holl, but the thought is that they could acquire an upgrade to that group, effectively making them all backup options in the postseason. How much trade capital the Leafs want to spend on a yet another defenseman remains to be seen, but a physical veteran like the New Jersey Devils’ Ben Lovejoy or the New York Rangers’ Adam McQuaid would be a good fit.

3) Depth Forward: Reiterating the intro, if there is cap space available – in consideration of bonus overages – the Leafs need to use it. Another rental forward, even without an obvious fit in the lineup, would come in handy. The team has previously been linked to the Carolina Hurricanes’ Micheal Ferland and the New York Rangers’ Mats Zuccarello, among others. If they can make it work to add another scoring forward like that, they may as well pull the trigger. Any team in the Atlantic Division can use all the help they can get surviving the postseason.

Maple Leafs Still Seeking Right-Shot Defenseman

January 20, 2019 at 11:33 am CDT | by Zach Leach 12 Comments

The Toronto Maple Leafs are undoubtedly one of the top contenders for the Stanley Cup this season, but many would agree that they face an uphill battle if they don’t improve their defense corps. For years, the right side of the defense has been an issue in Toronto and nothing has changed. Nikita Zaitsev and Igor Ozhiganov are the only right-shot defenders that play regularly for the Maple Leafs and the former has struggled all season long – to the point that the team is actively shopping him and his lengthy contract – and the latter is still adjusting to an NHL pace of play. The only other righty on the blue line is Justin Holl, who is scoreless in two games so far this season as a total non-factor. Toronto needs more production, better checking, and all around more cohesion among their defensemen and it all starts with fixing the right side.

It comes as no surprise then that Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reports that the team is still actively scouring the market for a solution on the right side, preferably a top-four caliber defender. Kypreos again mentions the St. Louis Blues’ Alex Pietrangelo, a player that the Maple Leafs were linked to earlier this season, as a possibility, but questions his availability. Colleague Elliotte Friedman also mentions Los Angeles Kings’ off-side lefty Jake Muzzin and Philadelphia Flyers’ bruiser Radko Gudas as options. The problem, and one addressed by Kypreos, is that the prices are high on these top right-side defensemen with term remaining on their contracts and he believes that the Maple Leafs are unwilling to part with young roster forwards like Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson or top blue line prospect Rasmus Sandin to get a deal done. Kypreos lists the team’s first-round pick and AHL defensemen Timothy Liljegren and Calle Rosen as their top bargaining chips, but that likely will not be enough to land one of the top long-term defensemen on the market.

The prices will be lower on the rental market, but the options are also less appealing. The best right-handed defensemen who are impending free agents all belong to top contenders – Erik Karlsson, Anton Stralman, Dan Girardi, Tyler Myers – and even some of the more moderate options play for teams not looking to sell, such as the Golden Knights’ Deryk Engelland and the Bruins’ Steven Kampfer. If the Leafs feel adding a solid, stay-at-home righty would give them the boost they desire, the New Jersey Devils’ Ben Lovejoy or the New York Rangers’ Adam McQuaid would both be serviceable options. If they instead want a puck-mover, they could try to pry Nick Jensen from the Detroit Red Wings or Taylor Fedun from the Dallas Stars, but neither are guaranteed to be available. There simply isn’t a great market right now at right-shot defense, typical of the position that has become one of the most valuable in hockey due to scarcity. It may be the one piece that the Maple Leafs need to put them over the top, but making a deal is going to be easier said than done.

Atlantic Notes: Kronwall, Jensen, Zaitsev

January 18, 2019 at 5:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

While Red Wings defenseman Niklas Kronwall has spent his entire 15-year career in Detroit, he’s willing to hear out GM Ken Holland if the team decides to approach him about a trade, notes Gregg Krupa of The Detroit News. The 38-year-old acknowledges that there’s a sense of pride about spending his entire career with one organization but that he’d feel obligated to hear out Holland if approached. Kronwall is in the final year of his contract with a $4.75MM cap hit and holds a no-trade clause that allows for ten teams he can be traded to. While he’s not the top pairing player he was in the prime of his career, he’s still logging nearly 20 minutes a night on Detroit’s back end and could certainly serve as a capable third pairing defender for some contending teams.

Elsewhere around the Atlantic Division:

Still with Detroit, the Red Wings would like to re-sign pending UFA blueliner Nick Jensen, reports MLive’s Ansar Khan. The 28-year-old started the season as a healthy scratch but has since emerged as one of their more reliable defenders. Jensen is in the midst of a career year that has seen him average nearly 21 minutes a night of playing time. With a cap hit of just over $810K, he’d be an intriguing rental addition for a cap-strapped contender if the two sides can’t agree on an extension.
Although there has been some talk that the Maple Leafs will look to add a defenseman before the deadline, one of their current rearguards is also involved in trade discussions as well. In an appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio link), Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that Nikita Zaitsev’s name is out there as someone that teams believe they can acquire. The 27-year-old has five years remaining on his contract after this one with a $4.5MM cap hit so finding a way to shed that contract would give Toronto some extra salary cap flexibility. However, Johnston acknowledged that they may need to attach another asset in order to get someone to take the contract and a follow-up move to acquire a right-shot replacement would need to be in place before pulling the trigger on a Zaitsev deal.

Western Notes: Vancouver-Seattle Rivalry, Baertschi, Pietrangelo, Vlasic

December 8, 2018 at 8:55 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 6 Comments

With Seattle becoming the NHL’s 32nd team, you might think the Vancouver Canucks wouldn’t be thrilled to have a team right on their doorstep. However, that’s not the case. In fact, Vancouver ownership and fans are thrilled to bring a natural rival for their team and hope that it will continue to spark interest not only in Seattle, but bring in more fans in Vancouver as well, according to the Associated Press.

”Vancouver is already a partner. They were the most enthusiastic team in the league about this. They love the idea of this rivalry,” Seattle team President Tod Leiweke said. ”I think for the two cities to connect like this, the two cities are 130 miles away but now they’re going to connect in a whole different way and I think that’s one of the great things that is going to come out of all this is a deep, deep visceral connection between Vancouver and Seattle and we’re going to play some great games.”

Both franchises hope that the rivalry will increase marketing, interest in the game and the hope that each franchise’s fanbase will travel back and forth between cities when they face off against each other. While there would normally be reason to worry that each franchise might take away from each other in terms of fans, there is no concern of that here as it is believed the U.S.-Canadien border is likely the perfect barrier for fans on which side they want to follow.

Sticking with Vancouver, Canucks head coach Travis Green said that forward Sven Baertschi is progressing nicely and might be ready to practice with the team when in Vancouver on Monday and Tuesday. Baertschi has been out since Oct. 24 with a concussion. Baertschi has only appeared in 10 games for Vancouver this season and has three goals and three assists.
While only a rumor, Sportsnet reports that Nick Kypreos reported on Hockey Night in Canada tonight that the St. Louis Blues are considering moving defenseman Alex Pietrangelo and the Toronto Maple Leafs could be the prime target, suggesting that the Maple Leafs are offering Nikita Zaitsev, picks and prospects as part of a package. While that would be a huge win for the Toronto Maple Leafs, expect much of the league to weigh in on Pietrangelo if St. Louis truly intends to trade him. Pietrangelo, who is currently on LTIR, could become a unrestricted free agent after the 2019-20 season.
The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) writes that one of the biggest problems with the San Jose Sharks is the regression of veteran defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who is starting the first year of an eight-year, $56MM contract, pointing out that the 31-year-old Vlasic is playing like a third-line defenseman this season and his minus-14 plus/minus ratio is quite accurate as he has struggled mightily.
Fox Sports Jon Rosen reports that Gabriel Vilardi is not in the lineup for the Ontario Reign of the AHL due to an injury and is expected to be evaluated on Monday by Los Angeles Kings doctors. The 19-year-old forward has been on a long-term conditioning assignment in Ontario, having posted one assist in four games there so far. He has missed significant time in each of the last two seasons due to back injury.

Atlantic Notes: Palat, Pageau, Dermott, Hudon, Rask

November 25, 2018 at 12:24 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper announced that winger Ondrej Palat is not expected to play Sunday, but after that the 27-year-old is expected to be listed as “day-to-day” and could be back soon. Palat hasn’t played since Oct. 26 when he left the game with a lower body injury and subsequently was listed out for at least four weeks. That seems about right as the team could get him back at some point this week.

Palat has appeared in just nine games this season and has failed to find the back of the net as he has just five assists in that span. The team needs the winger to return and re-establish himself in the team’s top-six as he also dealt with injuries last year as he played in 56 games, tallying only 11 goals.

Cooper also added that defenseman Anton Stralman is being re-evaluated and will be out Sunday. The 32-year-old hasn’t played since Nov. 8 with an undisclosed injury. Stralman has eight points in 16 games.

The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that center Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has been out all season with a torn Achilles muscle, continues to make amazing progress as he joined the team on their four-game road trip in New York and skated with the team Sunday in a non-contact jersey. Despite a six-month timetable in mid-September, Pageau looks closer and closer to returning to the team quite a bit earlier than the original diagnosis. Garrioch also notes that Mark Stone, Colin White and Mark Borowiecki all took part in skating Sunday.
The Athletic’s Ian Tulloch (subscription required) breaks down the play of many of the Toronto Maple Leafs from Saturday’s game. Of note, Tulloch writes that one necessity in the near future is that Toronto must find a way to find a spot in their top-four for defenseman Travis Dermott. The 21-year-old is only averaging 17:53 of ATOI, but has been used more and more, getting 23:06 of ice time Saturday. The scribe adds that Dermott has developed into the team’s top defenseman and the Toronto needs to make adjustments accordingly, which means cutting playing time for struggling blueliners Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev.
After being a healthy scratch for Friday’s game, Montreal Canadiens forward Charles Hudon talked to head coach Claude Julien, who told him to be more aggressive, like he was last season when he had 126 hits, according to Montreal Gazette’s Stu Cowan. Hudon’s response was he had 13 hits in 9:09 of ice time.
It looks like the break that Tuukka Rask took a week ago has been paying off for the netminder. Rask has had three impressive starts since taking a critical weekend off earlier this month, including a .938 save percentage in his three appearances since his return, according to the Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont.

Atlantic Notes: Nylander, Harpur, Maple Leafs, Reilly

October 14, 2018 at 4:51 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 3 Comments

As if the Toronto Maple Leafs and William Nylander negotiations weren’t getting enough attention, NHL.com’s Igor Eronko reports that KHL Avangard Omsk head coach Bob Hartley, whose team owns the KHL rights to Nylander, would love to have the winger come play for them.

“I would like to see William in my team,” Hartley said. “I know his father. That would be great.”

Negotiations between the two sides have not fared well with rumors that Nylander’s camp is asking for $8MM per season, while the Maple Leafs refuse to offer a record-breaking deal and are rumored to be closer to $6MM per season. An earlier report even suggests that Toronto’s latest offer was a four-year deal worth well under $20MM and the team is not interested in trading the 22-year-old.

Nylander could opt to sign a deal with Avangard Omsk, although that seems unlikely as he’d prefer to play in the NHL, but obviously Nylander’s camp is hoping the possible threat of sitting out the season might bring up Toronto’s offer.

The Ottawa Senators got another impressive performance from one of their young players Saturday when defenseman Ben Harpur finally made his season debut. The 23-year-old had been a healthy scratch up to now, but made an immediate physical impact to the game when he put a major hit on Los Angeles Kings winger Alex Iafallo early in the game. The 6-foot-6, 222-pound blueliner didn’t register a point in their 5-1 win over the Kings, but played so well, he led the team in ice time, playing 22:37, according to Don Brennan of The Ottawa Sun. Harpur was teamed with veteran Mark Borowiecki on a pairing assigned to shutdown the Kings’ top line of Anze Kopitar, Ilya Kovalchuk and Iafallo. That line finished with no points and just six shots on goal.
The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel (subscription required) gives credit to general manager Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs for the signings of center Par Lindholm and defenseman Igor Ozhiganov, who both have made quite an impact on the Maple Leafs already loaded roster, giving them another two “free” additions on a team that needs as many cheap options as possible. Lindholm potted his first career NHL goal Saturday, while Ozhiganov had his best game yet, according to head coach Mike Babcock. The team has already done a good job in past years, bringing in foreign players on cheap deals, including defenseman Nikita Zaitsev as well as Calle Rosen and Andreas Borgman.
The Montreal Canadiens feel they have found an answer to who will eventually play alongside Shea Weber when he returns later this year. The team has been really impressed with the play of Mike Reilly, who has been a big part of the team’s 2-1-1 start so far this season, according to The Athletic’s Arpon Basu (subscription required). He has done a good job moving the puck with his speed. He faced up against Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby twice and while the numbers don’t support it, Crosby wasn’t a major factor in either game. “It’s a good challenge, but I love it,” Reilly said after the Canadiens’ 4-3 shootout win Saturday. “I like to compete, I have high expectations, so it’s always fun to go out against guys like that.”

Vegas Signs Shea Theodore To Seven-Year Contract

September 25, 2018 at 8:35 am CDT | by Zach Leach 4 Comments

The stand-off between restricted free agent defenseman Shea Theodore and the Vegas Golden Knights is over and ended in a way that few expected after all this time. Late last night – or early this morning for many – Theodore ended his holdout by signing a seven-year extension worth $36.4MM, per a team release. It is a flat structure without any salary fluctuation or bonuses, but does include a modified No-Trade Clause in the final two years, as reported by TSN’s Pierre LeBrun. Theodore will now re-join the Knights at training camp and is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season.

The new contract carries a $5.2MM AAV, higher than Theodore’s reported comparable contracts of Winnipeg’s Josh Morrissey and Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse. However, those two players each signed two-year bridge deals, whereas Theodore was able to land long-term security, as well as eat into unrestricted free agency years, with five extra years at a salary of close to $2MM more. The cap hit for a long-term deal is also commensurate with Theodore’s experience relative to those two, comparable to recent deals signed by the likes of Toronto’s Nikita Zaitsev, Florida’s Michael Matheson, and the Rangers’ Brady Skjei. It turns out that term was actually the bigger factor in negotiations than salary, according to GM George McPhee, speaking to the media following the Knights’ preseason game last night. “I don’t know that we were ever really far apart; it was more what’s the right term. They were more interested in going shorter, we were more interested going longer,” McPhee said, adding that “When it was all laid out and explained” to Theodore, there was finally a resolution. McPhee stressed the importance of cost certainty when negotiation a long-term deal with a player they see as a major core piece moving forward, balancing cap space with commitment, and stating that he is “confident” with the long-term core they have put together.

Not long ago it seemed there was no resolution in sight between Theodore and the Golden Knights, only for a surprise long-term deal to be announced overnight. Could another contract negotiation break the same way? With Theodore signed, only the Maple Leafs’ William Nylander and the Ducks’ Nick Ritchie remain unsigned and the news out of both cities has been equally pessimistic. Yet, if Theodore can agree to deal with just some small tweaks and some inside information from management, others can too. With the regular season set to open next week, the clock is ticking for these two remaining RFA’s to make a deal.

Atlantic Notes: Krug, Zaitsev, Formenton

September 15, 2018 at 8:54 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

Throughout the offseason, there have been lots of rumors surrounding the Boston Bruins, including many names that had been bandied about, including their top defenseman Torey Krug, whose name came up on several occasions while Boston was looking for a top-six winger. It wasn’t that they wanted to get rid of him, but logically, Krug would have made the most sense to move with the emergence of Charlie McAvoy. The crowded defense probably could survive without him and with his cap hit of $5.25MM AAV, the team could use the cap relief. Not to mention the fact that he’s posted 110 points over the course of the last two seasons.

In the end, the team never moved Krug or even came that close to moving him. Regardless, Krug laughed off the trade rumors, according to Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports.

“I don’t really see anybody doing my job here. I just have to make sure I show up every day and do the job the best that I can,” said Krug, who remained behind in Boston while rehabbing a fractured ankle as the bulk of the team trains in China. “You can’t really worry about too many things that people are saying. You go back to that famous line that it’s the nature of the business. So I’m still here and ready to do my job.”

Kristen Shilton of TSN writes that Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Nikita Zaitsev took it hard last season when he struggled after returning from injury last season. The 26-year-old was coming off an impressive rookie season in which he four goals and 36 points, but after breaking his foot, while blocking a shot on Dec. 15, his season took a turn for the worse. He came back after missing 17 games, but never was the same. “[You’re] not confident in yourself,” Zaitsev said on Saturday, reflecting on his return during Toronto’s training camp session at Gale Centre Arena. “Missing six weeks, it was [really hard]. It’s not an excuse, though. I started the season really good and I was confident in every minute what I did on the ice. After [getting hurt] I just couldn’t keep myself on the same level.” He hopes that now, finally healthy, he should be able to bounce back next season.
The Ottawa Senators might be heading for a full-blown rebuild, but that’s just fine for 19-year-old Alex Formenton, who has impressed the coaching staff after a couple days of training camp, according to Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen. The 2017 second-rounder made the team as an 18-year-old out of training camp last season, but was sent back after playing just two games before being sent back to his junior team. However, it’s his speed that has really impressed the staff this year as he has been already teamed with Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel in practice. “He makes a few guys look like cones out there,” Ottawa Senators coach Guy Boucher said of Formenton, who scored during Saturday’s intrasquad scrimmage. “It’s not the guys’ fault. It’s just that he’s so impressive. If you give this guy a bit of room and you didn’t gap up well, goodbye. A few of our older guys are finding that out.”

Atlantic Notes: Maple Leafs’ Defense, McAvoy, Bruins’ Rookies, Drouin

September 1, 2018 at 2:27 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg Leave a Comment

With most of the media attention drawn towards the Toronto Maple Leafs’ signing of John Tavares, many people didn’t notice that the team didn’t really address their defensive issues this last offseason. The main reason for that is that general manager Kyle Dubas feels the answers to their defensive problems are more likely to be found within their own organization.

The Star’s Mark Zwolinski writes that the team has their top four of Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev, but they also have an overabundance of talented blueliners who are ready to step in and fill in those final two spots as well as help out if one of those top four struggle next season. The team can look to a number of defensemen, including Travis Dermott, Igor Ozhiganov, Connor Carrick, Timothy Liljegren, Justin Holl, Jordan Subban, Andreas Borgman, Calle Rosen, Martin Marincin and Andrew Nielsen, who all have the capabilities of checking in if needed.

The scribe writes that one major advantage for all these players is they’ve had at least one year (except for Ozhiganov) of experience with defensive coach D.J. Smith, who was voted in a players’ poll as the assistant coach best suited to become a head coach.

After seeing Calgary Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin sign a six-year, $29.7MM deal ($4.95MM AAV) on Thursday evening, The Athletic’s Joe McDonald (subscription required) wonders what it might end up costing the Boston Bruins to lock up defenseman Charlie McAvoy, who is playing out the final year of his entry-level deal this season. If Hanifin makes that much, McAvoy, who has been quite an impact for the team already in just one-plus season, should be able to get an even bigger deal. The scribe writes that the Bruins had already started extension talks at $6MM over seven years, but are more likely to work out an even longer-term deal after this season, which could be an eight-year deal between $7.5MM and $8MM.
In a team preview, The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa (subscription required) writes that it looks like a rookie will be centering the Boston Bruins’ third line next season after having Riley Nash centering it last season. It just comes down to who wins that job between Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic and Jack Studnicka. All are expected to have significantly better offensive skills than Nash, but all have no NHL experience so far. The 21-year-old Forsbacka-Karlsson was inconsistent in his first season in the AHL last year. The 20-year-old Frederic is considered to be more of a grinder after two seasons at the University of Wisconsin, while the 19-year-old Studnicka still lacks both size and strength and may not be ready for an NHL role yet, despite excellent offensive skills. If none are ready, Sean Kuraly or Chris Wagner would have to assume the role.
Patrick Hickey of the Montreal Gazette, in a series on key players the Montreal Canadiens need to get a better season from, suggests that the team must get a major improvement out of center Jonathan Drouin this season. One reason the highly-touted Drouin struggled was because the 23-year-old spent the previous summer training with Max Pacioretty with the assumption they would be linemates, but learned early on that they weren’t very compatible together as well as the fact that some within the organization felt he would be a better winger, while others wanted him playing center. Now, a full-time center, Drouin has been training for this season all offseason. “Last year, I came in and I had no feel for what was going on,” Drouin said earlier this week. “As the year went on, I felt more comfortable knowing what do in some areas, at some points in the game. At the end of the year, things were starting to work out and I want to continue like that.”

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

July 31, 2018 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 5 Comments

Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

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