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Arbitration

New York Rangers, Brandon Scanlin Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement

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08/02/23: The Rangers have now officially announced the signing of Scanlin to a one-year contract extension.

08/01/23: According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the New York Rangers and defenseman Brandon Scanlin have reached a pre-arbitration settlement on a new contract.

Scanlin’s representatives and the Rangers have agreed on a one-year, $775k contract carrying a $100k AHL salary. Scanlin’s arbitration hearing was scheduled for August 4th, and will obviously now be taking not take place.

Scanlin is a 24-year-old undrafted right-shot blueliner who signed an entry-level contract at the conclusion of his NCAA career at the University of Nebraska Omaha. That deal carried a $925k NHL AAV and an $80k AHL salary, the latter being the more important number as Scanlin was always unlikely to see games for the Rangers so quickly after leaving college. Scanlin’s camp has secured a pay raise to $100k in the AHL for next season, though at the cost of cutting the NHL AAV down to the league minimum.

While this will hurt Scanlin’s earning potential in the NHL, that isn’t of major consequence looking at the Rangers’ defensive depth chart. The hulking six-foot-three, 223-pound defenseman isn’t going to threaten Ryan Lindgren or K’Andre Miller for either of the two top slots on the Rangers’ defensive depth chart.

While the left-side spot on the team’s third pairing next to Braden Schneider will likely be up for grabs in training camp and preseason, Scanlin faces a tall task to earn that role over holdover Rangers players such as Zachary Jones (who the Rangers would need to expose to waivers to send to AHL Hartford) and Ben Harpur, or veteran free agent signings such as Erik Gustafsson (42 points last season) and Connor Mackey.

As a result, he’s overwhelmingly likely to be ticketed for a role back in the AHL with the Hartford Wolf Pack, where he played his rookie professional season in 2022-23. Scanlin played in 61 games for Hartford in 2022-23, scoring four goals and 15 points while racking up 30 penalty minutes. Although Scanlin had to contend with more established players such as Jones, Libor Hájek, and Matthew Robertson soaking up regular minutes in Hartford he still managed to play in nearly 85% of the Wolf Pack’s games and the team’s full slate of nine playoff games.

That puts him in a decent position to maintain a regular role for the Wolf Pack next season, although the additions of Gustafsson and Mackey could make things more difficult. Assuming Gustafsson earns the third-pairing role next to Schneider and the Rangers opt to stash Jones in the press box as a seventh defenseman rather than expose him to waivers, Mackey, should he clear waivers, is in line to be the Wolf Pack’s number-one left-shot defenseman with Harpur and Robertson likely to be behind him.

That lineup picture could make it harder for Scanlin to see regular time in Hartford, especially as more accomplished AHLers such as Mac Hollowell and Nikolas Brouillard stand ahead of him on the right side.

Still, Scanlin appears to be one injury or waiver claim from resuming his regular role on head coach Kris Knoblauch’s defense, and should he manage to hold down a regular role he will be afforded a solid opportunity to continue his development and make a more concerted push for NHL call-up consideration.

Anaheim Ducks Sign Troy Terry To Seven-Year Deal

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The Anaheim Ducks have signed winger Troy Terry to a seven-year contract, per the team, avoiding an arbitration hearing with the young forward set for today. The Athletic’s Eric Stephens reports the contract carries a $7MM average annual value. With the news, all pending arbitration cases this offseason are now concluded.

Terry’s career in Anaheim began rather unceremoniously, selected 148th overall in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. Elite offensive production at the University of Denver, plus some memorable international appearances for the United States, quickly boosted his stock as a prospect, however. Although he didn’t make the Ducks full-time immediately after turning pro in 2018, it took just a year and a half of seasoning in the minors for Terry to transform into a legitimate NHL talent.

At 23 years old in 2020-21, Terry played in 48 out of 56 games during the COVID-shortened campaign but largely played bottom-six minutes on a Ducks team that finished with a .384 points percentage and failed to do much of anything well. Despite that, he managed to finish fifth on the team in scoring with 20 points, providing some very solid two-way play in the process. That performance set the basis for the following two seasons, which have seen Terry develop into a top-flight, All-Star caliber winger for the struggling Ducks.

Now 25, the Denver native exploded for 60 goals, 68 assists and 128 points in 145 games since 2021. He’s maintained his status as a possession monster, too, posting a career-high relative Corsi For percentage of 7.9 at even strength last season. His 23 goals in 70 games last year tied Trevor Zegras for the team lead, and his average ice time of 19:22 ranked first among Ducks forwards. Needless to say, Terry has transformed into a franchise pillar for Anaheim in the span of a few years, and he’s now been rewarded with the highest cap hit on the team. That’s a stat that could change in the coming days, however, as Zegras remains without a deal for next season.

While Anaheim has indeed struggled over the past few campaigns, that’s not an indication of Terry’s inability to lift the team around him. The team’s patchwork defense and subpar scoring depth have limited their ceiling, all the while, Terry has managed to continue developing undeterred. He’s become a prototypical first-line winger without many weaknesses in his game, possessing an accurate shot while building out his playmaking ability to a high-end level.

Now, Anaheim looks to Terry to keep it up over the rest of the decade as their next wave of prospects begins to hit the NHL. They already had a promising one-two punch at center led by Zegras and Mason McTavish but now also have Swedish phenom Leo Carlsson as the second overall pick in this year’s draft. The team has one of the better goalie prospects in the sport in Lukas Dostal, who’s set to make the jump to the NHL full-time this season in a backup role. Consider a very strong defense pool led by Jamie Drysdale, Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, and Jackson LaCombe, and it doesn’t seem like Anaheim will be in the throes of a rebuild much longer.

Terry’s long-term extension accentuates an offseason in which the Ducks tried to fill out their developing core with seasoned depth, inking two-time Stanley Cup champion winger Alex Killorn and bruising right-shot defenseman Radko Gudas in free agency. His contract, which keeps him in a Ducks jersey through 2030, carries an even $7MM salary spread in each season and a ten-team no-trade list beginning in 2025-26, per PuckPedia.

Despite the strong list of names in the system, most of them aren’t ready to make the jump to full-time impactful NHLers next season. Expect a marginal amount of improvement from the Ducks under new head coach Greg Cronin next season, but the first season of Terry’s massive extension figures to be another forgettable one for the 2007 Stanley Cup champions.

CapFriendly projects the Ducks with upwards of $20MM in cap space for next season, a solid chunk of which will go to new deals still needed for Drysdale and Zegras.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Drew O’Connor, Avoid Arbitration

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have re-signed winger Drew O’Connor to a two-year deal worth $925K per season, according to a team announcement Wednesday morning.

O’Connor was Pittsburgh’s last unsigned RFA and one of two unsettled arbitration cases remaining league-wide. Anaheim Ducks winger Troy Terry, whose hearing is scheduled for today, is now the only unsettled case. Pittsburgh and O’Connor were headed for a hearing on Friday, August 4, the last day on this year’s arbitration calendar.

The 25-year-old forward continues working toward a full-time NHL role, which the team hopes he can achieve in 2023-24. Many expected O’Connor to lock down an everyday role in the team’s bottom six last season, and while he did skate in a career-high 46 games with Pittsburgh, he didn’t avoid AHL assignment either. O’Connor started last season in the minors, recording 22 points in 20 games with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins before he was permanently called up to Pittsburgh in December 2022.

Those scoring totals in WBS are closely aligned with what he posted the previous two seasons, meaning he clearly has nothing left to prove in the minors after scoring at around a point-per-game clip for three years. His five goals and 11 points in 46 games in Pittsburgh last season seem more impressive when you consider he was playing just 9:49 per game.

O’Connor also had quite a strong end to the 2022-23 season, doing well with the United States at the 2023 IIHF World Championship in Finland and Latvia. He was among the team’s best offensive players, ranking fourth with eight points in ten games.

Since signing in Pittsburgh as an undrafted free agent out of Dartmouth College at the end of the 2019-20 season, O’Connor’s posted eight goals, nine assists and 17 points in 78 games with the Pens. They’re totals he’ll undoubtedly build significantly on next season, with him currently penciled in on the team’s fourth line.

While Pittsburgh may have their last necessary signing done, their offseason is far from over. Per CapFriendly, the team currently sits roughly $3.2MM over the $83.5MM salary cap Upper Limit after signing O’Connor. However, their roster projection at the time of writing includes 13 forwards, eight defensemen and three goalies – putting them one player over the maximum 23-player roster. Some of that cap overrun will be cleared by assigning one of Casey DeSmith or Alex Nedeljkovic to the minors, depending on who wins the backup spot to starting goalie Tristan Jarry out of training camp.

This won’t fix everything, though, as neither of their cap hits ($1.8MM and $1.5MM, respectively) are fully buriable in the minors. That means they’ll still carry some cap penalty if they’re not on the active roster. Given the maximum buriable threshold next season is $1.15MM, this would mean Nedeljkovic would still carry a $350K cap hit if assigned to the AHL, while DeSmith would carry a $650K cap hit.

Don’t forget the Penguins remain deep in trade rumors to acquire San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson, who’s fresh off a Norris Trophy-winning season and a 100-point campaign. While getting O’Connor locked into a six-figure contract for two years is a nice bit of work for interim general manager Kyle Dubas, the team is far from having their ducks in a row ahead of next season.

Some cap relief could come soon, though. Settling with O’Connor has opened up a second buyout window for Pittsburgh, which opens in three days and will last for 48 hours. As a reminder, post-arbitration settlement buyouts are subject to strict regulations: the player must have been on the team’s reserve list at the time of the 2023 trade deadline, and they must have a cap hit of at least $4MM. Two potential targets for Pittsburgh are forward Mikael Granlund and defenseman Jeff Petry, who are both locked in through the next two seasons at rather extravagant cap hits of $5MM and $6.25MM, respectively.

Signing O’Connor to a two-year deal buys up his remaining RFA years and walks him directly to unrestricted free agency in 2025, as CapFriendly notes.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Edmonton Oilers Reach Deal With Ryan McLeod

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Ryan Rishaug of TSN is reporting that the Edmonton Oilers have reached an agreement with restricted free agent center Ryan McLeod. The Oilers and McLeod were set to go to arbitration on August 4th, but have now reached a settlement without the help of an arbitrator. Rishaug is reporting that the deal is a two-year contract worth $2.1MM per season.

Last night, it was reported that the Oilers and McLeod were close to a deal but some recent developments around the league had changed the calculus. It is not yet known what changed today, but the Oilers took care of a big piece of business as they look to sign their final restricted free agents to new deals for the 2023-24 season.

McLeod just finished his third season in the NHL and has established himself as a good depth center who can provide some offense and play up in the lineup if needed. McLeod just finished a year in which he produced 11 goals and 12 assists in 57 games and posted good analytics as well. McLeod will still be a restricted free agent when his contract expires in two seasons and will remain in the driver’s seat if he continues to improve from year to year.

With this deal in place, it gives both sides certainty and security. For the Oilers it allows them to have a better understanding of the cap space they have available while they negotiate with defenseman Evan Bouchard. For McLeod, he gets to cash in on his first contract in the seven figures and gets the added security of having next year’s money guaranteed.

Jeremy Swayman Contract Settled Via Arbitration

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Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman has been awarded a $3.475MM one-year contract in arbitration, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

This news comes just a few hours after the team reached an agreement on a two-year contract with their other pending RFA, Trent Frederic. They now have cost certainty on their roster for next season, although CapFriendly projects them to have just over $3.1MM in cap space before this award is factored in, meaning they stand just over $600k above the $83.5MM salary cap with a full roster.

In our more detailed breakdown of Swayman’s arbitration case, we projected an award between $3.55MM and $3.75MM. This award comes in just below that projection, although it is ever so slightly above the mid-point between the two parties’ filings. Swayman had filed for a $4.8MM AAV while the Bruins filed for $2MM, making the mid-point $3.4MM.

Swayman gets a little bit more than that, and although that’s far from the $4.8MM he filed for it still represents a significant pay raise from the $925k against the cap he cost in 2022-23.

He fully earned that hefty pay raise with his play last season, as well. In his age-24 season, Swayman played in 37 games and went 24-6-4 with a .920 save percentage and 2.27 goals-against-average.

While those numbers were undoubtedly aided by the Bruins’ historic regular season dominance and their exceptional group of defensemen, Swayman’s 2021-22 (.914 save percentage in 41 games) and 2020-21 (.945 save percentage in 10 games) beef up his resume.

Swayman was also an accomplished starter in his college days at the University of Maine, and looking at his performance at every level of hockey it’s hard to argue he’s not worth the $3.475MM he’s been awarded today. Where this leaves Boston, though, is in a curious spot.

Although some might assume that the Bruins would be interested in trading Swayman since they already have Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark entrenched as a starter, that’s highly unlikely to happen. As The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa noted in his recent mailbag, the Bruins believe an Ullmark-Swayman tandem “will be their position of strength for 2023-24” and help them return to the playoffs despite losing some high-end talent in Patrice Bergeron, Dmitry Orlov, and Tyler Bertuzzi. (subscription link)

Although Brandon Bussi is waiting in the wings playing for the AHL’s Providence Bruins and could be ready to handle backup duty, Ullmark does have a history of injuries earlier in his career and the safety Swayman provides to the Bruins’ goaltending depth is legitimately valuable.

That being said, one has to believe that Swayman will eventually want to be a true number-one goalie, as his talent certainly merits receiving that chance. Whether that chance will come in Boston remains to be seen.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Boston Bruins, Trent Frederic Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement

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11:00 AM: The Bruins have now officially announced the agreement, confirming the terms that were first reported by Friedman.

9:00 AM: The Boston Bruins have reached an agreement on a new contract with RFA forward Trent Frederic before today’s scheduled arbitration hearing. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Bruins have agreed with Frederic on a two-year, $2.3MM AAV contract extension. According to Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland, the deal has a $250k signing bonus in its first year.

The contract comes closer to Frederic’s desired AAV (he had filed for a one-year, $2.9MM deal) at the cost of an extra year of term, something the Bruins filed for albeit at a $1.4MM AAV.

In our more detailed breakdown of Frederic’s arbitration case, we projected “Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM,” which is exactly where this settlement came in.

At a $150k higher rate than the midpoint of the two parties’ filings, the Bruins have rewarded their second 2016 first-round pick for his breakout 2022-23 campaign. Frederic flew past his career highs to register 17 goals and 31 points in 79 games last season even while averaging just under 12 minutes of ice time per night.

As mentioned in our breakdown, Frederic’s possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t likely to be that of a one-year wonder, although one does wonder how he’d hold up if exposed to a more demanding role requiring him to handle more substantial minutes.

Frederic doesn’t boast a ton of offensive skill but as a six-foot-three, 214-pound forward with the versatility to play center or along the wing Frederic is the sort of forward who plays with an edge and provides enough scoring touch to be coveted by many clubs. This settlement marches Frederic to the unrestricted free agent market in two year’s time, and if he can seize the significant opportunity in front of him he could be lined up for a major payday at that point.

With Boston’s top two centers from last season in Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci out the door, Frederic could potentially get the opportunity to play center for one of Boston’s scoring lines, potentially slotting next to a star such as David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand. Although players such as Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are undoubtedly going to be first in line for those opportunities, Frederic could get his chance, which would be a potentially career-defining opportunity.

This two-year contract provides Frederic with a significant opportunity, but also heightened expectations. Now paid more than double the $1.05MM cap hit he played last season on, Frederic can no longer be the physical fourth-line presence he was earlier in his career. He’ll need to be more, and if he can do so he could stand to make quite a bit of money in two year’s time thanks to this new contract.

As for where this leaves the Bruins, they now have just over $3.1MM in cap space left over, and still await an arbitration award in netminder Jeremy Swayman’s case. Swayman had his arbitration hearing on July 30th and therefore should have his award come in today, meaning the Bruins are close to reaching cost certainty for the team’s expected 2023-24 roster.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. 

Arbitration Breakdown: Troy Terry

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With the Minnesota Wild settling with goaltender Filip Gustavsson today, the biggest name left yet to have his arbitration hearing is undoubtedly Anaheim Ducks forward Troy Terry. There are just a handful of days to go in this year’s arbitration calendar, and Terry is set to have his hearing on Wednesday, August 2, meaning he’ll have a contract for next season in place by this Friday at the latest. The Ducks still have franchise cornerstone center Trevor Zegras to sign for next season, although he was not eligible for arbitration.

Filings

Team: $4.5MM
Player: $8MM
Midpoint: $6.25MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Last season proved to be a pivotal year for Troy Terry, once again demonstrating his ability to be a high-end top-six scoring forward without much help around him. He showed his breakout campaign in 2021-22 was no fluke, tying his career-high in goals and setting new career-highs in even-strength assists and average time on ice.

Set to turn 26 in September, Terry’s journey has certainly not mirrored the temperate expectations Anaheim had for him when they selected him in the fifth round of the 2015 NHL Draft. He has unquestionably evolved into one of the most significant value picks of the last decade, transforming into a bonafide top-six winger after giving him plenty of time to develop at the University of Denver and in the minors with the AHL’s San Diego Gulls. He’s a well-rounded offensive talent and far from a liability defensively – in fact, he’d posted above-average advanced results in 2020-21 and 2021-22.

With Terry just now teetering on the edge of unrestricted free agency next offseason, there’s little reason to be afraid of a setback in his abilities or production. The linearity of his development and the wide range of positive advanced indicators regarding his sustainability as a top-six scoring winger has left many Ducks fans puzzled about how arbitration may be required to get him under contract.

Arbitration isn’t something the Ducks likely desire – he’s only two seasons away from unrestricted free agency in 2025, and a short-term deal risks losing him for nothing at that point. At what lengths (one or two years) the Ducks and Terry filed is unclear.

2022-23 Stats: 70 GP, 23-38-61, -8 rating, 22 PIMs, 188 shots, 19:22 ATOI, 49.2 CF%
Career Stats: 274 GP, 75-101-176, -17 rating, 74 PIMs, 550 shots, 16:43 ATOI, 49.8 CF%

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Terry’s negotiation. 

Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils) – Despite his solid play, the seemingly most comparable case to Terry’s isn’t all that favorable to him. Bratt and the Devils had to get a one-year contract awarded via arbitration last season, totaling $5.45MM. At the time, Bratt had slightly more NHL experience at 307 games played but had scored 203 total points, a similar career-scoring pace to Terry. However, it’s worth noting that Bratt hadn’t demonstrated the consistency immediately before his arbitration hearing that Terry has – Bratt had just seven goals in the 2020-21 campaign, while Terry had scored 20-plus goals in each of the two seasons leading up to his hearing. Unfortunately for Terry, this is one of the closest comparables out there for his situation, and it’s significantly lower than his midpoint of $6.25MM.

Kevin Fiala (Minnesota Wild) – This was another one-year pact dished out by an arbitrator, except it was one season before Bratt’s in 2021. The deal came in at a marginally lower cap hit of $5.1MM, but Terry had better career offensive numbers at the time of signing – remember, this Fiala deal was signed before he posted back-to-back seasons above a point per game. This strikes as a low-end comparable for Terry – it would be surprising to see the arbitrator side any further toward the Ducks than this.

Projection

This is one of the more complex cases this summer to predict. It’s partially because of the wide gap in filings between the two parties (leaving lots of room for error around the midpoint) but also the lack of an excellent comparable for a player with as little experience and as old as Terry, already deep into his mid-20s.

That said, things don’t look promising for Terry to get anything close to his sky-high wish of $8MM. It’s become clear that deals settled by an arbitrator rarely carry such an exorbitant price, and he likely doesn’t have the many seasons of experience under his belt to justify a change in pace, even if things do look promising for him to continue his solid trajectory in the future.

This may be one of the first deals we predict to fall below the midpoint this summer. While both Anaheim and Terry have gone for extreme filings here, Terry’s comparables are not kind, and there’s little argument based on past arbitrator decisions for him to receive anything above the $6.25MM midpoint here. A deal in the $5.5MM-$6.25MM range seems much more realistic when considering the stagnant cap over the past few seasons and the lack of willingness from arbitrators to dish out deals high into the $6-8MM range.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minnesota Wild, Filip Gustavsson Agree On Multi-Year Deal

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11:49 AM: Minnesota has officially signed Gustavsson to a three-year, $11.25MM contract, per a team announcement. The deal carries a cap hit of $3.75MM and will carry him to unrestricted free agent status in 2026. Per CapFriendly’s projections, the Wild now have $1.64MM in cap space with a minimum roster of 20 players, and they still have RFA defenseman Calen Addison to sign. The full breakdown of the deal is as follows, according to PuckPedia:

2023-24: $4.25MM
2024-25: $4MM
2025-26: $3MM (five-team no-trade list)

10:12 AM: The Minnesota Wild are nearing a multi-year settlement with young goaltender Filip Gustavsson ahead of their planned arbitration hearing on Friday, The Athletic’s Joe Smith reports.

It’s hard to argue with locking down Gustavsson long-term after the season he just had. Operating in tandem with veteran Marc-Andre Fleury, the 25-year-old netminder finished atop many goaltending stat categories and even got end-of-season All-Star team consideration. His .931 save percentage in 39 games played trailed only Boston Bruins netminder Linus Ullmark, who took home this year’s Vezina Trophy. He also stopped 24.2 goals above expected, according to MoneyPuck’s model, meaning he stopped about 0.63 goals per game more than the average goalie based on the shot quality he faced.

This isn’t out of nowhere, either. Despite being in his third NHL organization already, Gustavsson has been a rather highly-touted prospect since the Pittsburgh Penguins selected him 55th overall in 2016. While a performance like this may have seemed unlikely, Gustavsson has always had the potential to turn into a starting netminder. Considering the delayed age curve that’s in effect for many goalies, his arrival into NHL relevancy is right on time.

He’ll undoubtedly push for more games next season, and it seems it’s only a matter of time until he’s anointed the Wild’s first long-term full-time starter since Devan Dubnyk. It’s a scenario that seemed unlikely when the Wild acquired him in a one-for-one swap with the Ottawa Senators last summer for veteran Cam Talbot, who had a rather disappointing season in the nation’s capital and has since moved on to the Los Angeles Kings via free agency.

Gustavsson’s strong play continued in the postseason, too, posting a .921 save percentage in five games during the Wild’s first-round loss to the Dallas Stars.

Financial certainty for the Wild on their own terms, not from an arbitrator, is also an extremely desirable outcome here for general manager Bill Guerin. The team’s incredibly tight salary cap situation is no secret – with $14.75MM in dead cap dedicated to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts, every dollar (and every signing) is extremely consequential for the team’s ability to manage their day-to-day roster. The team likely will not be able to carry a full 23-player roster this season, limiting themselves to just one or two healthy scratches depending upon their injury situation.

Of interest, this is a scenario that seemed extremely unlikely just one week ago. Smith had reported earlier that the two sides were likely headed to arbitration and were not close to a pre-hearing settlement. Evidently, Gustavsson and the Wild made up a lot of ground in negotiations over the last seven days. It was also reported earlier this summer that the Wild preferred a three-year term on a Gustavsson extension, buying one year of unrestricted free agency in the process.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Coyotes, Jack McBain Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement

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The Arizona Coyotes and young center Jack McBain have reached a two-year settlement ahead of their scheduled arbitration hearing today, according to a team release. The deal earns him $1.6MM per season, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

This settlement is a win for the Coyotes, who get the two-year contract they desired and a cap hit below the midpoint of the team and player filings submitted Friday before today’s planned hearing. The Coyotes had filed for a two-year, $1.2MM AAV deal, while McBain filed for a one-year, $2.25MM contract, putting the salary midpoint at $1.725MM.

McBain, 23, brings an intriguing blend of size and two-way potential to the bottom of the Coyotes’ lineup. Standing at 6-foot-4 and 218 pounds, Arizona acquired McBain’s signing rights from the Minnesota Wild in March 2022 after McBain informed the Wild he wouldn’t be signing with them after finishing his collegiate career at Boston College.

The Toronto-born center had a ten-game stint with the Coyotes to end the 2021-22 campaign in which he didn’t look entirely out of place, recording two goals and adding an assist on the heels of a point-per-game season in college and an Olympic appearance for Canada. That late-season experience in the NHL gave him a leg up heading into 2022-23, where he played in all 82 games as a rookie and finished 12th on the team in points with 26 and eighth in goals with 12.

Arizona now has a bit of a logjam at center, though, with youngsters Barrett Hayton and Logan Cooley and veterans Nick Bjugstad and Travis Boyd, meaning McBain is likely once again slated for a fourth-line role next season, potentially even on the wing. He did post a somewhat subpar faceoff win rate of 44% last season, although the whole team wasn’t adept in that department – only Hayton posted a win rate higher than 50% out of the team’s four everyday centers.

CapFriendly has not registered McBain’s deal at the time of writing, but once it is, Arizona will have roughly $7.15MM in cap space with a full roster of 23 players, per their projection.

As PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan points out, it’s also worth noting that the Coyotes are now in a rather tricky position regarding their total registered contracts within the organization. They’re now at 49 out of the 50-contract maximum and still have restricted free agent Jan Jeník to sign to a deal, which, if he’s signed, would leave them without the ability to make any player acquisitions without getting rid of a contract (e.g., waiver claims, free agent signings).

McBain will again be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights when his new contract expires in 2025.

PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan was the first to report the two sides were close to a settlement.

Arbitration Breakdown: Trent Frederic

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We’re entering the final few days of the salary arbitration calendar, meaning most of the remaining notable restricted free agents will have contracts in place for next season by the end of next week. There are a number of notable cases that remain unsettled, including a pair of high-end young goalies in the Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman and the Minnesota Wild’s Filip Gustavsson. Swayman’s hearing is today, meaning we’ll learn his contractual fate for next season on Tuesday. However, there’s a teammate of Swayman’s and an important depth piece for the Bruins facing an arbitration hearing of his own – forward Trent Frederic, who now has just 48 hours remaining until his arbitration hearing on Tuesday.

Filings

Team: two years, $1.4MM AAV
Player: one year, $2.9MM AAV
Midpoint: $2.15MM AAV

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

2022-23 was a breakout year for Frederic, recording career highs in offensive categories across the board. While he may not be a long-term top-flight center solution as the Bruins envisioned when they selected him 29th overall in 2016, the 25-year-old has grown into an extremely effective bottom-six power forward. His scoring skyrocketed this season despite not seeing a major increase in ice time, and he didn’t sacrifice the solid defensive play he’d shown in his two prior full NHL seasons. His 17 goals were sixth on the powerhouse Bruins last year despite playing under 12 minutes per game.

If advanced analytics hold any bearing in arbitration hearings, Frederic’s side should use them to their advantage. Many of his possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t a fluke, as his ability to drive play has steadily grown during his time in the NHL. However, it is fair to wonder if an increase in ice time (and, therefore, tougher matchups) may diminish his effectiveness slightly. It’s an important factor to take into consideration, as Frederic is expected to play a bigger role on the Bruins next season with wing depth like Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzzi no longer on the team.

His NHL career doesn’t carry a terribly long track record, though, something that may give the arbitrator some pause. Frederic hasn’t cracked the 200-game mark in his career, and he only transformed into an everyday NHLer this season, oftentimes being healthy scratched at points throughout the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns.

2022-23 Stats: 79 GP, 17-14-31, +28 rating, 57 PIMs, 120 shots, 11:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 198 GP, 29-25-54, +25 rating, 194 PIMs, 284 shots, 11:27 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Frederic’s negotiation. 

Philipp Kurashev (Blackhawks) – Kurashev is a few years younger than Frederic but has a similar amount of NHL experience. Like Frederic, he also posted career-highs in offensive categories last season but had less production and infinitely worse defensive results. However, Kurashev was relied upon to play heavy minutes (more than 17 minutes per game) for a lottery Blackhawks team – likely more responsibility than he was fit to handle. An arbitrator awarded Kurashev a $2.25MM AAV last week, coming in above the midpoint of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings. Given Frederic’s better scoring and two-way play but extremely sheltered minutes, this could fall close to the arbitrator’s final decision here.

Warren Foegele (Hurricanes) – This comparison may be a bit dated (Foegele had his arbitration award in November 2020), but played a much more similar role on the Hurricanes to Frederic’s on the Bruins than in the Kurashev comparison outlined above. After a season in which Foegele registered similar offensive production to Frederic (30 points in 68 games), an arbitrator awarded him a $2.15MM deal for the 2020-21 campaign. It presents a solid argument for the arbitrator to rule right down the middle of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings.

Artturi Lehkonen (Canadiens) – Lehkonen had filed for arbitration with the Canadiens in the summer of 2021, but the two sides came to a pre-hearing agreement on a one-year deal worth $2.3MM. Lehkonen was the same age as Frederic at the time of signing and produced similarly strong two-way results, although Lekhonen had significantly more NHL experience at the time of signing, with 338 games under his belt. However, he was coming off a down season – just seven goals and 13 points in 47 games, hurting his stock.

Projection

No matter what, it does seem Frederic will be signing a two-year contract unless the arbitrator awards significantly in his favor. As Frederic was the party that filed for arbitration, Boston is free to choose between a one-year or two-year pact based on the AAV awarded by the arbitrator. The contract would walk Frederic directly to unrestricted free agency, but it’s something Boston is evidently comfortable with based on their filing.

The comparisons outlined place Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM. It seems unlikely the arbitrator would go any higher than $2.5MM on an award, though, especially considering his limited ice time and consistent fourth-line role. Regardless, it’s likely he’ll more than double his $1.05MM salary from the last two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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