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Examining The Buffalo Sabres’ Financial Future

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When Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams signed center Tage Thompson to an admittedly massive seven-year contract extension earlier this week, it raised some eyebrows considering the lack of consistency from Thompson in his career. Speaking after the fact a few days ago, Adams told The Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski that “we’re also being strategic a little bit, to be honest, about the timeline knowing that there’s other guys potentially next summer where we’re going to be in this situation. We want to make sure we’re being strategic on when and how we put these deals together.”

So, given that Adams is envisioning more breakout campaigns from his young stars in 2022-23, how does the Sabres’ financial picture line up with their rise out of their years-long rebuild and the expected salary cap increases?

There are two players next summer who, depending on their campaigns, could demand significant pay raises over their sub-$1MM deals. Both Dylan Cozens and Rasmus Asplund are restricted free agents in 2023, although Cozens does not have arbitration rights.

Cozens is projected to slot right behind Thompson on the team’s depth chart, battling with Casey Mittelstadt for a spot centering their second line. If he wins that battle and sees increased playing time, Cozens’ offensive production is bound to take a step forward from his 38 points last season.

In any event, Cozens’ ceiling likely isn’t the 35+ goal season Thompson is coming off of, either. His development has been more linear, something that tracks well for the Sabres, at least in terms of certainty in contract negotiations. The team still currently has nearly $40MM in cap space to play with next offseason with the projected salary cap increase to $83.5MM, so any major contract the Sabres hand out now really doesn’t force their hand in the slightest.

It’s later on when things would get tricky, when the team is contending and their breakout stars want to capitalize on what should be a rapidly increasing salary cap at that point. From that point of view, betting on their players is a smart move from Adams at the moment. With the team still so far away from the salary cap, it can’t hurt to take a risk on what could be a team-friendly deal in five seasons. Even if the players don’t quite pan out as projected, those are deals that won’t be taking up nearly as much of their salary cap as they are now when they do become an issue.

Though Adams should be careful not to play with too much fire. Recent reports suggest that the first large salary cap jump could come in the 2024 offseason instead of 2025. That would be a boon to the Sabres, who have four major expiring contracts that offseason: Mittelstadt, Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin, and Owen Power. If everything goes as expected in terms of their development, that could very well be upwards of $30MM handed out just between those four players. If the Sabres put themselves in a position to give those contracts and still have some breathing room, they could finally construct a roster with the required depth to remain at the top of the Eastern Conference.

Latest On Timo Meier

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There are few players as important to the San Jose Sharks as Timo Meier. The Swiss forward led the Sharks in scoring last year, setting career highs in goals (35), assists (41), and points (76). He’s a spectacular scoring winger without many weak spots in his game, and he would be expected to lead the Sharks into their next period of contention alongside Tomas Hertl.

But speaking today at the NHL’s European Player Media Tour, Meier said he’s had no discussions yet on a contract extension with the Sharks, aside from an introductory phone call with new general manager Mike Grier on July 5. Meier is entering the final season of a four-year, $24MM contract signed in 2019.

He will again be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next summer, meaning he’s due a qualifying offer. Meier’s actual salary in 2022-23 is $10MM, which should raise some eyebrows about the value of that qualifying offer, and rightfully so. But a change to the qualifying offer rules in the 2020 Collective Bargaining Agreement extension means that Meier can’t receive a qualifying offer greater than 120% of his previous deal’s cap hit, meaning he’s only owned a one-year, $7.2MM deal as compared to a one-year, $10MM deal from the Sharks.

Financially, for Meier, this is the most important season of his NHL career. At 26 years old next summer, he’ll undoubtedly sign a long-term deal that should take him well into his 30s, whether it’s with the Sharks or someone else. If his production takes a step back next season, though, the Sharks may very well want to settle for a one-year contract awarded through arbitration.

The Sharks, in any event, will likely need to make a cap-clearing move next summer as they turn the corner back toward competitiveness. The anchor contracts of Logan Couture ($8MM), Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM), and Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7MM) don’t expire until 2026 and 2027, so relief from those deals won’t come for quite a while.

Detroit Red Wings Sign Jake Walman

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Aug 11: The Red Wings have officially announced the contract, confirming the term and salary.

Aug 10: The arbitration period is over for the 2022 offseason. Jake Walman, who was the final hearing scheduled, has settled his case with the Detroit Red Wings after exchanging figures yesterday. The two sides have agreed to a one-year, one-way, $1.05MM contract according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Walman had filed for $1.75MM, while the Red Wings had filed for a two-way, $775K contract.

It’s now prove-it time for Walman, who was part of the return for Nick Leddy at the trade deadline and has just 76 games under his belt at the NHL level. The 26-year-old suited up 19 times for the Red Wings down the stretch and recorded four points, seeing more ice time than he had ever received in St. Louis.

Whether that opportunity continues remains to be seen, after the Red Wings added several defensemen this offseason, including Ben Chiarot, Olli Maatta, Mark Pysyk, and Steven Kampfer. That’s not even mentioning the young prospects who will soon be pushing for playing time, meaning Walman will have to deliver if he wants to stay in the lineup.

A third-round pick of the Blues in 2014, he notably received time on both the powerplay and penalty kill after arriving in Detroit. As that kind of do-it-all depth option, he could find a nice home on the Red Wings moving forward. This deal will take him right to unrestricted free agency next summer though, meaning he’s playing for his future from the moment training camp starts.

After resolving their arbitration case, the Red Wings will receive a short buyout window later this week.

Winnipeg Jets Sign David Gustafsson

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The Winnipeg Jets have re-signed their final restricted free agent, inking David Gustafsson to a two-year contract. The deal includes an average annual value of $775K in the NHL and is a two-way deal in 2022-23 and a one-way deal in 2023-24.

Gustafsson, 22, did not have arbitration rights this offseason after playing just 28 NHL games to this point in his career. Only two of those came last season, when he spent most of the year in the minor leagues with the Manitoba Moose, racking up 15 goals and 30 points in 47 games.

The 2018 second-round pick is a mixture of size and defensive responsibility that could have him in line for a more regular role this season, especially given how little the Jets have done to add forward depth this summer. In fact, they haven’t really done anything to improve that group, other than to re-sign Mason Appleton after re-acquiring him at the deadline.

With only nine forwards signed to one-way deals, there should be a healthy competition for the last few spots. Gustafsson will have to show that he can be a valuable piece at both ends, and try to insert himself into the bottom-six plans.

Detroit Red Wings, Jake Walman File Arbitration Figures

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With their hearing set for Thursday, the Detroit Red Wings and Jake Walman have filed arbitration figures. The team is looking for a two-way deal that would pay Walman $775K in the NHL and $225K in the AHL, while Walman has filed for $1.7MM, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

Remember, there is almost always a significant gap between the two asks. Unlike some other sports, the neutral arbitrator does not need to pick one side or the other in the hearing, and can instead award a salary somewhere between the two. So far, only Yakov Trenin has seen his arbitration process reach a hearing. The Predators forward received a deal worth $1.7MM, between the team filing of $1.35MM and his own of $2.4.

Unlike in Trenin’s case, when the Predators chose a two-year award, the Red Wings only have the option for a one-year contract with Walman, as he is now 26 and just a year away from unrestricted free agency. He also doesn’t have much of an arbitration case, having played just 76 games in the NHL.

Still, if it gets to a hearing, the two sides will have to stop negotiating. A change in the CBA from 2020 made it so that once a hearing begins, the player is no longer able to agree to another deal. The clock is ticking for Walman and the Red Wings if they want to get a multi-year deal done.

This is the final arbitration case to be heard this summer.

Boston Bruins Avoid Arbitration With Pavel Zacha

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With Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci now officially signed, the Boston Bruins are almost complete for the 2022-23 season. Pavel Zacha sits as the team’s only unsigned restricted free agent, with an arbitration date set for Thursday. It appears as though they will not need that hearing after all, as the Bruins have signed Zacha to a one-year, $3.5MM contract.

Because he has already completed six seasons in the NHL, a one-year deal for Zacha would take him directly to unrestricted free agency next summer at the age of 26. The 2015 sixth-overall pick was acquired by the Bruins in a trade for Erik Haula this offseason, after he put up a career-high 36 points in 2021-22.

A $3.5MM cap hit is actually equal to the base salary for both Bergeron and Krejci combined, showing just how team-friendly those bonus-laden deals are, and how strong an arbitration case Zacha had after developing into a consistent two-way presence the last few years. While he never did become the top-six center that many believed he could be when drafted, his versatility, defensive acumen, and size make him a nice piece for the Bruins to move around this year.

While this deal does technically move the Bruins over the salary cap, for the time being, they have plenty of flexibility with several key players injured to start the year. That doesn’t necessarily rule out an offseason move to free up some additional space (the Bruins will receive a short buyout window now that Zacha’s arbitration case has been settled) but it isn’t required, as Charlie McAvoy and Brad Marchand could be moved to long-term injured reserve as they recover from summer surgery.

Marchand’s absence, in particular, could mean a nice opportunity for Zacha, depending on how things play out, as the team’s left wing depth is quite impressive when everyone is healthy. Whether he can reach new offensive heights remains to be seen, but the big forward will at least get the chance to prove he deserves a long-term UFA contract as the Bruins try to contend for the Stanley Cup for at least one more Bergeron-led season.

PuckPedia broke the contract details on Twitter.

Lawson Crouse Signs Five-Year Extension

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Arbitration will have to wait. Lawson Crouse and the Arizona Coyotes have agreed on a five-year contract extension, just ahead of their arbitration hearing that was scheduled for today. The deal will carry an average annual value of $4.3MM. Craig Morgan of PHNX Sports has the full breakdown:

  • 2022-23: $3.6MM
  • 2023-24: $4.6MM
  • 2024-25: $4.6MM
  • 2025-26: $4.8MM
  • 2026-27: $3.8MM

The two sides had exchanged arbitration figures over the weekend, with the Coyotes filing for $2.5MM and Crouse asking for a $4.0MM contract. That would have been a one or two-year deal, which is why the number crept a bit higher as the two sides agreed on a long-term solution. General manager Bill Armstrong released a short statement:

We are very pleased to sign Lawson to a long-term contract. He is a big, strong, skilled power forward and we look forward to him being a big part of our future.

Crouse, 25, still had two years of restricted free agency left, meaning this contract is buying out three UFA seasons for the power forward. He’s coming off his first 20-goal season, one in which he was an impressive blend of size, physicality, and scoring touch. Those 20 goals and 34 points came in just 65 games, along with his 181 hits.

Originally selected 11th overall by the Florida Panthers in 2015, Crouse was part of the trade that sent Dave Bolland’s LTIR-bound contract to the desert in 2016. Since then, he has played in 346 games for the Coyotes, scoring 56 goals and 110 points.

While those numbers don’t jump off the page, he did experience a solid improvement this season and is the kind of power-skill mix that is difficult to find in today’s NHL. He’ll join Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz as the only Arizona players who are signed for more than three years, and slides in as one of the team’s building blocks moving forward.

The team still has Barrett Hayton to sign as a restricted free agent, but otherwise looks rather set for the upcoming season. Arizona does still have close to $20MM in cap space, meaning they can continue to use that room to acquire more futures for the rest of the summer, if the opportunity arises.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to break the news on Twitter. 

Winnipeg Jets Sign Mason Appleton, Avoid Arbitration

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Per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Winnipeg Jets have avoided an arbitration hearing with forward Mason Appleton. He’s signed a three-year deal with the Jets worth a cap hit of $2.167MM. He’ll be paid $2MM in 2022-23 and receive $2.25MM in the following two seasons.

The Jets already lost Appleton once, and they don’t seem intent on having it happen again. Left unprotected in the last offseason’s expansion draft, Appleton was an inaugural member of the Seattle Kraken before Winnipeg re-acquired him at the Trade Deadline. Across 68 games with Seattle and Winnipeg in 2021-22, Appleton scored eight goals, 13 assists (tying a career-high), and 21 points.

Appleton’s point production may not jump off the page, but he’s posted decent defensive analytics throughout his 206-game NHL career. 26 years old now, Appleton has produced a nice NHL career for a sixth-round pick. The native of Green Bay, Wisconsin will try to continue to prove his worth as a valuable bottom-six forward over the next three seasons in Manitoba.

For Winnipeg, their only remaining restricted free agent is 22-year-old David Gustafsson, who appeared in just two games for them last season.

Snapshots: Hlinka Gretzky, Kolesar, Kadri

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The Hlinka Gretzky Cup concluded tonight with Team Canada defeating Team Sweden 4-1 to take first place and the gold medal. As impressive as a gold medal is, saying just that wouldn’t begin to tell the entire story for Canada’s 2022 Hlinka Gretzky run. For one, the team was undefeated throughout the tournament, and in the process they outscored opponents by a jaw-dropping 34-3 score. In addition to the dominant performance, the Canadians were able to show their dominance on home ice, as the tournament was hosted in Red Deer, Alberta.

Denver Barkey of the London Knights was named the most outstanding player of the gold medal game, while Oshawa Generals forward Calum Ritchie led the tournament in scoring. In net, Canada’s Scott Ratzlaff had the best performance ever by a Canadian goalie in the tournament with three or more games played, as far as goals-against average and save-percentage are concerned, says Brock Otten of McKeens Hockey (link). Otten adds that while most of the top Canadian prospects in the 2005 class held their standard, Ethan Gauthier, Colby Barlow, and Caden Price were able to elevate their game, and thus their standing as prospects (link).

  • SinBin Vegas’s Ken Boehlke discusses Keegan Kolesar’s new three-year, $1.5MM AAV contract he signed recently to avoid arbitration with the Vegas Golden Knights (link). In sum, Boehlke classifies the contract as a win-win for both sides, Vegas getting a cost-controlled fourth-liner and Kolesar getting $4.5MM guaranteed despite not scoring much at the NHL level. What is notable Boehlke says, is that Kolesar’s lack of scoring (just seven goals in 77 games last season) could correlate to his below-average 7.4% shooting percentage and if he can at the least improve his shooting percentage to league average, he could increase his goal total, making him worth a good bit more than the $1.5MM cap hit he currently holds. Even if not, Kolesar has proven himself to be a reliable grinder for the Golden Knights’ bottom-six and at $1.5MM still represents a good value deal for the normally cap-strapped organization.
  • According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, it appears free agent forward Nazem Kadri’s asking price has not come down and the requested AAV still begins with at least a “9” (link). If that is indeed the case, it may provide a hint as to why Kadri remains unsigned, with many teams having spent up to or relatively close to the salary cap. Several teams have the room to sign Kadri, but if he is also looking to go to a team that has a real chance at a Stanley Cup, his options may be slim. Soon-to-be 32, if Kadri is able to regularly repeat his breakout 87 point performance from this season, a $9MM AAV contract would be worth it for the two-way star, but otherwise it could wind up a salary cap issue, even if he’s still a solid performer.

Arbitration Breakdown: Lawson Crouse

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It’s likely to be a long weekend for representatives of Lawson Crouse and the Arizona Coyotes as they prepare for a Monday morning arbitration hearing to decide the forward’s next contract, or perhaps try to settle it ahead of time. A veteran of six NHL seasons, Crouse has two more seasons as a RFA and had filed for arbitration ahead of the deadline for players to elect on July 17th.

Given Crouse’s age, play style and Arizona’s cap space, one may have expected the sides to work out a long-term deal this offseason. However, as the hearing date approaches, that agreement appears less and less likely, especially as figures have been exchanged. With another year of control which will require another contract given that both sides asked for a one-year deal in arbitration, Arizona should have another chance at keeping the forward long-term, while Crouse will have a chance to repeat on his strong 2021-22 and command an even higher salary.

Filings:

Team: $2.5MM

Player: $4.00MM

Midpoint: $3.25MM

(per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers:

Listed at 6’4″ and 220 pounds, Crouse is a large power-forward willing to hit anyone in sight and can chip in offensively. The 25-year-old arguably hasn’t hit the ceiling projected for him when the Florida Panthers selected him 11th overall in 2015, however he has made a name for himself in the league, filling his role, one that is usually in high-demand, quite well. Barely more than a year after Florida selected Crouse, they dealt him to the Coyotes along with the contract of Dave Bolland, and he was given an opportunity to slot right into Arizona’s lineup.

Crouse would get into 72 games as a rookie in 2016-17, but struggled to just 12 points in that time. The following year he would appear in only 11 NHL games, spending the rest of the season in the AHL. Since returning to a full-time NHL role in 2018-19, Crouse has been a steady presence in the Coyotes lineup, but had struggled to find his place on the offensive side of the puck. 2018-19 saw Crouse record 25 points in 81 games, repeating that number in a notably fewer 66 games in 2019-20, a season COVID-19 cut short. Unfortunately, the winger took a step back in 2020-21, recording just 13 points in 51 games.

Heading into his prime years and towards opportunities to make big money, Crouse not only needed a bounce-back season, but needed a bit of a breakout in 2021-22 and got just that. In 65 games, Crouse hit career-highs in goals with 20 and assists with 14 (the second time he’s done so) and even found himself part of trade deadline speculation. The performance didn’t cement him as one of the league’s best, but it didn’t need to. As a grinder, a heavy hitter, and someone who plays the game the right way, Crouse was able to show he could contribute offensively on top of that. In a hearing, an arbitrator will look at the bulk of a player’s production over the years, considering consistency and growth, but no season is more important to consider than the platform year. For his career, Crouse has shown consistency and some growth ahead of his poor 2020-21, but again showed that growth heading into his platform year, the best he’s had to date.

2021-22 Stats: 65 GP, 20 G, 14 A, 34 pts, 52 PIMs, 131 shots, 181 hits, 17:26 ATOI

Career Stats: 346 GP, 56 G, 54 A, 110 pts, 253 PIMs, 538, 1,014 hits, 13:50 ATOI

Potential Comparables:

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  

Andrew Copp (Winnipeg Jets) – Copp and the Jets avoided arbitration last summer with a one-year, $3.64MM contract that carried the forward through to unrestricted free agency. Having agreed to the contract two weeks prior to the hearing date, neither side exchanged figures for the arbitration. Copp’s 2021-22 salary comes in just about halfway between the midpoint and the player filing in Crouse’s case, meaning that Crouse’s representatives would have to show that he, right now, is somewhat better than Copp was last summer. Much like Crouse, Copp had made a career as a hard-working, physical forward who could chip in point totals somewhere in the upper-20’s, but not much more. Also like Crouse, Copp had an offensive breakout in his platform year, though his 39 points in 55 games was notably stronger than Crouse’s 34 in 65 games. While he fits nicely within the filing numbers in the instant case, the former Jets forward may not be an ideal comparison for either side, as Crouse would find it difficult to show he’s any better than Copp was, but Arizona would have a tough time showing that Crouse is so far behind Copp that he warrants a salary $1.14MM less than Copp.

Tyler Bertuzzi (Detroit Red Wings): We take another step back in time, now to 2020, for the rest of our comparables. That year, Bertuzzi and Detroit went to arbitration, where Bertuzzi was awarded $3.5MM. That number was closer to Detroit’s $3.15MM filing number as compared to Bertuzzi’s $4.25MM, but represented something closer to a split for both sides. Bertuzzi had come off of a 48 point season, featuring 21 goals and 27 assists in 71 games, better than Crouse’s 20 goals and 14 assist platform year. What’s more is that this wasn’t a breakout for Bertuzzi like it was for Crouse, having his 47 points in 73 games the year prior, and a similarly-paced 24 points in 48 games before that. This comparison would likely work best for Arizona in the instant hearing, considering Bertuzzi had exceeded Crouse’s breakout season in his platform year, already a repeat of the year prior, and was only awarded $3.5MM. If a player with production considerably better than Crouse, for a longer stretch, is only worth $3.5MM, then it stands to reason that Crouse would not be worth more than $3.5MM, or anywhere near that amount, Arizona may argue.

Connor Brown (Ottawa Senators): Also during the 2020 offseason, Brown and Ottawa settled their case, agreeing to a three-year, $3.6MM AAV deal. Entering that offseason, Brown was coming off a career remarkably similar to Crouse, having been reliable for some offensive production with point production hovering just over the 30-points-per-82-games level, and fresh off a bounce-back season after a rough year prior. Brown had 43 points in 71 games in his platform year, a significant step-up from just 29 points in 82 games the year before. Even though this $3.6MM is below Crouse’s filing, it’s above the midpoint and as a three-year deal, shows Ottawa’s confidence in Brown after his up-and-down trajectory. Crouse may argue that the long-term commitment shows confidence on this trajectory, one remarkably similar to his. He could also show that in addition to similar offensive production, he unlike Brown, adds an additional element as a hard-hitting power forward, which is production in its own right.

Jake Virtanen (Vancouver Canucks): A final comparison from 2020, and a strong one for the Coyotes is Virtanen, who settled with Vancouver on a two-year, $2.55MM AAV contract. This deal is just barely over the Coyotes’ filing number, and Virtanen’s trajectory heading into arbitration is incredibly similar to that of Crouse. After a somewhat pedestrian rookie season, both players spent a majority of their second year in the AHL, but returned with a bit more production, remaining consistent over the next two seasons. The season after would then be Virtanen’s platform year, where he took a step forward, recording 18 goals and 18 assists in 69 games. Crouse on the other hand would regress before his 20 goal and 14 assist platform year. With similar production for their career, Crouse recording 110 points in 346 gams entering arbitration and Virtanen 95 points in 279 games before the above contract, the only difference is that Crouse took a step back at one point, Virtanen did not. Arizona would likely argue that the two players had almost the same career, except Crouse regressed two years before arbitration, while Virtanen did not, thus why Arizona filed just slightly below what Virtanen and Vancouver agreed upon.

Projection:

Given the comparable players, Crouse may find it difficult to be awarded at his filing number. However, the relevant comparables outside of Virtanen show that Crouse is most likely worth around or above the midpoint. The forward had his best season in his platform year and hit somewhat of a milestone marker with 20 goals. His ability to play a physical game supplement’s his offense as well, helping to drive up his value.

On the other hand, Crouse’s 2020-21 was unimpressive at best and serves to show that some inconsistency may be present in the winger’s game, and even though Copp, Bertuzzi, and Brown show Crouse should be above the midpoint, Virtanen casts doubt on that assumption, even if his contract isn’t dispositive.

What Crouse’s next salary winds up being is a question most likely reserved for arbitration at this point, however the more important question for the rebuilding Coyotes will be how one of their young building-blocks can continue to develop and whether they can secure him long-term.

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