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Erik Cernak Suspended Two Games

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The Department of Player Safety has had a busy few days. Their latest discipline has been handed out to Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak, who has been suspended for two games. Cernak elbowed Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin in the head, resulting in a concussion for the young player. As the accompanying video explains:

It is important to note that while we acknowledge the Lightning argument that they believe Dahlin’s glove drove Cernak’s elbow upward and caused the head contact on this play, we disagree.

While Dahlin’s glove does make glancing contact with Cernak’s forearm, it is clear to us that Cernak’s elbow is already on a trajectory where head contact is inevitable. 

The Lightning will be without Cernak for the next couple of games, but the concern now is how long Dahlin will be out after being placed in the concussion protocol. The young phenom has had his share of struggles this season but the Sabres were already looking to move one of their other defensemen to upgrade the forward ranks.

Atlantic Notes: Babcock, Dahlin, Anderson

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Three weeks ago, the Toronto Maple Leafs were just OK. They weren’t dominating the Atlantic Division, but their underlying numbers were acceptable. However, quite a bit has changed in three weeks. The team has just one regulation victory in its last nine games (two in their last 15 games) and the team’s special teams are at the bottom of the league.

Now, after defending Mike Babcock three weeks ago, The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) now compares the pros and cons on whether it might be time to remove the head coach. While he points out that some of the team’s struggles are out of Babcock’s control, there are more reasons to look at the coaching staff skeptically within the last nine-game stretch.

Mirtle examines the coaches’ tactics and the special teams challenges (including 11.8 percent success rate on the power play and a 71.4 percent kill ratio on the penalty kill). However, the most interesting take is that the scribe believes that the head coach has lost his team in the locker room. Whether that will eventually fuel a coaching change is unknown, but Toronto fans won’t be happy long with a 9-9-4 record with all the expectations that were expected from this team.

  • Despite being benched for the third period Saturday night, the Buffalo Sabres still intend to play second-year defenseman Rasmus Dahlin Sunday, who has struggled in the eyes of head coach Ralph Krueger. “We’re making decisions for the team in the moment. It was a coaching room decision, not against Rasmus at all; it was for the other guys to just tighten things up,” said Krueger (according to The Athletic’s John Vogl). “It worked, but Rasmus will grow from it, learn from it and move forward quickly from it, I’m sure. … Just sometimes wanting too much maybe and finding the balance between his amazing genius and skill and what we need when. He’ll improve from it.”
  • The Fourth Period’s Matteo Pasculli wonders whether Ottawa Senators goaltender Craig Anderson’s career with the Senators could be coming to an end. The 38-year-old veteran has been struggling this season with a 3.31 GAA and a .894 save percentage in 12 appearances this year. With Anderson losing hold of his job to Anders Nilsson, who has been steadier, Anderson could find himself on the trade block as a potential backup goalie for a playoff team. Of course, a playoff team would require some cap space to accommodate his $4.75MM contract, although Ottawa could retain some of that salary. He is, however, in the last year of his deal, which could be appealing to a team looking for a rental.

 

Stars Notes: Khudobin, Pavelski, Heiskanen, Dellandrea

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In two seasons with the Dallas Stars, goaltender Ben Bishop has already appeared in 112 games if you include the playoffs. And while the goaltender put up Vezina-caliber numbers last year after posting a 1.98 GAA and a .934 save percentage in 46 regular season games. However, how long can the 32-year-old keep that pace up?

The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro (subscription required) writes that the team needs to turn backup goaltender Anton Khudobin into a tandem 1B goaltender. Despite appearing in 41 games with Dallas last season, his role has obviously been as a backup as he made just one playoff appearance in 13 games, and the 33-year-old played just 11:05 in that one game. Regardless, he has put up solid 2.57 GAA and a .923 save percentage.

With Bishop getting older, Shapiro writes that the team needs to include Khudobin more and give him an even bigger role, which would include making the goalie situation more of a tandem. Khudobin has never thrived when sitting on the bench cold and has proven to be stronger when he gets streaks of starts. That might make a tandem combination work better for Dallas.

  • SportsDay’s Matthew DeFranks writes that while the 38 goals that new Dallas Stars’ Joe Pavelski scored with San Jose last season were nice, what the team is really hoping for is that the veteran forward can turn Dallas’ power play into an elite one. What the Stars are hoping for is that Pavelski can provide the power play with versatility and movement in the offensive zone, something that San Jose has always been great at. The Stars want the same mobility on their power play.  “When the bodies are moving, the puck’s moving, it gets hard for penalty killers to keep track of everybody,” Dallas coach Jim Montgomery said. “That’s where you find the open lanes, seams for tips and one-timers.”
  • NHL.com’s Rob Reese writes that while Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen had an impressive season, it’s even more impressive when you look at the numbers that the rookie put up. The blueliner was first among rookies, averaging 23:07 of ATOI, almost two minutes more than Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin. His 12 goals was ranked 17th among all NHL defensemen and his 10 even-strength were tied for eighth in the league. With more playing time expected next season, Heiskanen should continue to evolve into one of the elite defensemen.
  • NHL.com’s Brett Amadon writes that Montgomery has made it clear that he is open to giving top prospect Ty Dellandrea a legitimate shot to make the team during training camp this season. The 13th-overall pick in the 2018 draft has been impressive in juniors and looked pretty good in a short stint with the AHL’s Texas Stars last season, but would have to make Dallas’ roster next year or be returned to his junior club, the Flint Firebirds in the OHL. “I’ve got to work extremely hard and take the stuff I learned from a bit of pro experience,” Dellandrea said at Stars development camp in June. “I’ve got to come in, do everything I can and give myself the best shot to make the team.”

 

 

Snapshots: Sabres, Gardiner, Tkachyov

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Few have criticized the Sabres’ side of the recent Henri Jokiharju–Alexander Nylander trade, but it’s a fact that Buffalo is overflowing with defenders after acquiring the young right-hander from the Chicago Blackhawks. As Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News’ points out, the Sabres still have needs to fill up front and they could use their defensive depth to do so. Lysowski writes that Buffalo has ample cap space to make an addition at forward, but there are few ideal candidates left on the free agent market and the team may as well use their surplus of blue liners to swing a deal. Jokiharju is safe, as are fellow recent additions Brandon Montour and Colin Miller and 2017 No. 1 pick Rasmus Dahlin. RFA Jake McCabe is not likely to be dealt, but a potential candidate and injury-prone Zach Bogosian and overpaid veteran Matt Hunwick might be hard to move. That would seemingly leave Rasmus Ristolainen, a fixture on the rumor mill, Marco Scandella, and Casey Nelson as the most likely names to be dealt and it would not be a surprise if more than one ends up elsewhere. The Sabres are certainly not done making moves this summer.

  • Of course, this makes Buffalo just one of a surprising number of teams not biting on Jake Gardiner this summer. PHR’s top-ranked UFA defenseman, Gardiner remains unsigned more than a week after the market opened. NBC Sports’ Scott Billeck reports that Gardiner is seeking $7MM annually in his next year, which is likely pricing himself out of the range that many D-needy teams are looking for. It’s hard to argue that Gardiner was not the best available defenseman when free agency opened, but he’s also not a top-pair defenseman by most metrics and teams aren’t willing to shell out right now simply due to a weak market. Billeck names the Winnipeg Jets as a team that could use Gardiner, but can’t afford him at his current asking price. The Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, and his own Toronto Maple Leafs also fit that description. Billeck feels the New Jersey Devils could be the leading candidate to land Gardiner right now, but there really aren’t many clear fits for the defender at this time unless he changes his expectations.
  • Despite flirting with a jump to the NHL for several years, Vladimir Tkachyov has decided to re-sign in the KHL once again. SKA St. Petersburg has announced an extension with the young scorer. Tkachyov, 23, has been a solid offensive contributor for the past several years but the best may still be yet to come. The winger was acquired by SKA last month from Salavat Yulaev Ufa for the rights to Nikita Soshnikov, who has since signed in Ufa, and Tkachyov could be set for some career-highs with the perennial contenders in St. Petersburg. It is a two-year contract with SKA, so Tkachyov has a couple more years to further prove he is a formidable forward, and could very well drawn NHL attention once again in 2021.

2019 Calder Memorial Trophy Finalists Announced

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The finalists for the Calder Memorial Trophy, given each year to the most proficient first-year player in the NHL, have been announced. The three rookies are Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson, St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington, and Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, according to Sportsnet’s John Shannon. New York Islanders center Mathew Barzal was the 2018 winner of the award.

While it seemed like a forgone conclusion that the Canucks’ Pettersson would walk away with the award early in the season, the young Swede has gotten some good competition from Binnington as well as fellow Swede Dahlin. However, Pettersson remains the front runner. The 20-year-old came over from Sweden this year and immediately posted 28 goals and 38 assists for 66 points, making the loss of both Henrik and Daniel Sedin, who retired a season ago, less noticeable. What’s interesting is that Pettersson was initially pegged to play the wing for a season as he transitioned to North American hockey. Instead, within a week or two of training camp the team announced he would play center immediately and fared extremely well at that. Despite the impressive numbers, the other two candidates have a legitimate chance at the award, as much of Pettersson’s production was concentrated in the first half of the season. He tallied 23 goals and 45 points in the first 40 games of the season, but struggled more in the second half, totaling just five goals and 21 points in his final 31 games.

Binnington didn’t make his first start this year until Jan. 7, but he made it count, posting a shutout against the Philadelphia Flyers and leading a struggling Blues team to the playoffs with a 24-5-1 record with a 1.89 GAA and a .927 save percentage. The 25-year-old netminder was not even considered the team’s top goalie prospect at the start of the season, as he was behind Ville Husso in San Antonio of the AHL, but a strong start to the season with the Rampage and his immediate success with St. Louis give the goaltender a good chance at challenging for the Calder.

Dahlin comes from a much more conventional place, as he was the 2018 No. 1 overall pick and immediately steadied a struggling Buffalo defense this season. He had one of the best seasons for an 18-year-old defensemen ever, as he posted nine goals and 44 points, second most in the NHL history for his age and position. Only his former coach, Phil Housley, did better as an 18-year-old defender, as Housley put up 57 points back in the 1982-83 season. Dahlin also played the second-most minutes among NHL rookies, averaging 21:09, behind Dallas Stars’ defenseman Miro Heiskanen, who many felt deserved to be among the top three in this race. Dahlin is the first Buffalo Sabres player to be a finalist for the award since Tyler Myers was nominated in 2009-10.

Colorado’s Odds At The First Overall Pick

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Early this season, the Colorado Avalanche were in the most enviable position in sports. Their team was excelling and looking playoff-bound, but without any negative effect on their draft status. Because as the Avs won games, the Ottawa Senators were losing them and Colorado owned the Sens’ first-round pick this year as part of last season’s Matt Duchene trade. There was a real possibility that the Avalanche could be Stanley Cup contenders and also have the first overall pick in the draft. Lately, the Avs have looked less like a playoff team and more like the Senators. Colorado has four wins in their past 23 games dating back to mid-December and have slipped into a tie for tenth-place in the Western Conference, three points out of a playoff spot. The one silver lining: their odds at drafting No. 1 have improved and might end up being the best in several years.

Ahead of the 2014 NHL Draft, the NHL changed the draft lottery rules. Any team in the lottery could now move up into a top-three position and the odds would be more fairly distributed among all lottery teams. There have been slight variations in the odds for each draft, but the biggest shift came last year when the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights to the league added a fifteenth member of the lottery group and further split the odds. Yet, with 18.5% odds, the last-placed Buffalo Sabres still retained the first overall pick and drafted Rasmus Dahlin, a generational defenseman. This year’s prize, play-making forward Jack Hughes, is seen by most scouts as a guaranteed top-six center and power play wizard and the team with the worst record still stands the best chance of getting him by a significant margin.

Of course, the worst record looks like it will belong to Ottawa and thus the pick will belong to Colorado. The Senators are currently in 31st overall in the league standings, three points back of the Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils. If those standings hold, based on last year’s odds Colorado will have a 18.5% chance that the Ottawa pick will be first overall, compared to 13.5% for L.A. and 11.5% for New Jersey. Then, Colorado’s own pick comes into play. Currently, the Avs are technically 23rd overall. If they remain in that spot, they would have 5% odds that their own pick would be No. 1. Combined, they would have a 23.5% shot at picking first. Since 2014, no team has come close to having odds that high at the top pick and Colorado could continue to struggle down the stretch and improve the odds on their own pick. If the Avs were to slip three more spots in the league standings, their odds would be greater than 25%, giving them better than a one-in-four shot at Hughes.

The possibilities are even more intriguing when you consider the odds of both picks winning the lottery instead of just one. Currently, there is about a 0.9% chance that Colorado could pick first and second, not dissimilar odds to those that the final lottery team has of picking first. The addition of both Hughes and the presumptive No. 2 pick, Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko, would be an enormous influx of elite draft talent unseen since the Sedin twins landed with the Vancouver Canucks at second and third overall in 1999. There is a whopping 58% chance that both of their picks land in the top four, which would also be an unbelievable boost for the Avalanche with a number of impact forwards available in this class. And again, these odds can only improve if the Avalanche continue on this downward spiral. If the current standings hold, the worst that Colorado could do is to pick fourth and twelfth – which would still be a better first-round combination than any team in recent years – and the odds of that happening are approximately 18x less likely than picking both first and second; the best case is greater reality than the worst-case.

The moral of the story is that, while it’s disappointing for Avalanche fans to see a talented team plummeting down the standings, there is some upside as well. The team is young and built for the future and are in better shape than any team in recent memory to add the best player in the draft and perhaps two of the best available. So whether you’re a Colorado fan soley focused on Hughes or holding out for another top prospect as well, the team’s current slump is only helping in that pursuit. The ping pong balls will ultimately decide the Avs’ fate, but the future is bright.

PHWA Announces 2018-19 Midseason Awards

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Though they have no bearing on the eventual winners, last season the Professional Hockey Writers Association brought back their Midseason Awards to give fans an idea of who was leading the charge around the NHL at the halfway point. Today those ballots have been tallied and the midseason trophies were given out:

Hart Trophy – Most valuable player

1. Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames
3. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

Norris Trophy – Best defenseman

1. Mark Giordano, Calgary Flames
2. Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs
3. Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks

Selke Trophy – Best defensive forward

1. Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins
2. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
3. Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators

Calder Trophy – Best rookie

1. Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks
2. Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
3. Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars

Lady Byng Trophy – Sportsmanship & gentlemanly conduct

1. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
2. Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs
3. Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames

Vezina Trophy – Best goaltender

1. John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks
2. Marc-Andre Fleury, Vegas Golden Knights
3. Frederik Andersen, Toronto Maple Leafs

Jack Adams Award – Best coach

1. Barry Trotz, New York Islanders
2. Bill Peters, Calgary Flames
3. Jon Cooper, Tampa Bay Lightning

GM of the Year Award

1. Brad Treliving, Calgary Flames
2. Doug Wilson, San Jose Sharks
3. Lou Lamoriello, New York Islanders

Rod Langway Award – Best defensive defenseman

1. Mattias Ekholm, Nashville Predators
2. Mark Giordano, Calgary Flames
3. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

Comeback Player of the Year Award

1. Robin Lehner, New York Islanders
2. Jeff Skinner, Buffalo Sabres
3. Zach Parise, Minnesota Wild

Prospect Notes: Demko, Makar, Laaksonen

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After the Vancouver Canucks used a second-round draft pick on Thatcher Demko in 2014, following a breakout freshman campaign at Boston College, and he proceeded to improve over his next two seasons with the Eagles, many expected that it wouldn’t take long for him to take over as the starter for Vancouver. Now in his third pro season, Demko has suited up for only one game with the Canucks and continues to sit behind the likes of Jacob Markstrom and Anders Nilsson, who have been far from spectacular in that time. With the Vancouver duo currently combining for a save percentage below .900 and a goals against average over 3.00, this season would seem to be a prime opportunity for Demko to finally break through as an option at the NHL level. However, a concussion in training camp derailed the beginning of the season for the young keeper and he has only recently returned to the net for the AHL’s Utica Comets. The Athletic’s Jason Brough recently caught up with Demko to get an update on how his return from the “scary” injury has gone so far. Demko stated that he really wanted to take his time and ensure he was 100% before returning from the concussion, but feels good now. Demko continued that he has been working closely with the Canucks’ new goalie coach, Ian Clark, and is anxious to get his chance in Vancouver this season. Six games into his season in the AHL, Demko’s numbers aren’t as stellar as they were last season, but as he grows healthier and more comfortable in net, he’s likely to return to that high-level performance. Assuming he does, Demko should have far more than one NHL start on his resume by the end of this season.

  • Colorado Avalanche top prospect and college hockey superstar Cale Makar was invited to play for Team Canada at the Olympics last year, but declined the opportunity. History has repeated itself this year, as The Athletic’s Julie Robenhymer reports that Makar was offered a spot on Canada’s entry into the Spengler Cup tournament in Switzerland later this month, but has again passed up the international experience. Robenhymer writes that Makar has opted to work on getting back to full health before the second half of the NCAA season begins in January. With UMass ranked as the top team in the country, they need their top defenseman ready to go as they chase a national championship this season. While the Avs may have liked to have seen Makar in a different context at the Spengler Cup, they won’t hesitate to sign him as soon as his college season is over regardless.
  • One defenseman who may not be so eager to make the jump to the NHL is Buffalo Sabres prospect Oskari Laaksonen. Laaksonen, 19, was a third-round selection by the Sabres in 2017 and is a well-regarded young puck-mover. However, Laaksonen is comfortable staying in his native Finland for the time being, as Ilves has announced a two-year extension with their young stalwart. While the press release included a quote from Laaksonen that he is happy to stay with the team until something happens in the NHL, Buffalo certainly wouldn’t mind if he wanted to log some time in the AHL beforehand and it would help Laaksonen reach to top level much sooner. With Rasmus Dahlin, Lawrence Pilut, and Rasmus Ristolainen all relatively young and seemingly locked in to long-term starting roles, Laaksonen likely sees a lack of opportunity right now in Buffalo. However, he does seem willing to make the move once the blue line opens up somewhat with the Sabres.

Eastern Notes: Zacha, Dahlin, Neuvirth, Hagg, Martin

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While there were a number of people that were shocked when the New Jersey Devils assigned Pavel Zacha to Binghamton of the AHL, head coach John Hynes felt that the team needed to do something that would have an impact on the 21-year-old first-rounder. Despite having already played 150 NHL games in his career, Zacha was pointless in 10 games and Hynes felt just scratching him wasn’t going to be enough to spark him, according to Chris Ryan of NJ.com.

“To scratch him one game and put him back in, we’re still not in a position right now where we could rely on him in key situations, and that’s what we need from him,” Hynes said. “We think it’s important that it’s not, ’Hey, sit in the stands for one game and watch.’ That is effective in some situations, but we need him to go down and play, and play a lot of minutes and play in situations and earn his confidence back and get his game back.”

The sixth-overall pick in 2015, Zacha hasn’t developed into the franchise player the team thought they were getting when they drafted him. He has so far only managed to total eight goals in two straight seasons, suggesting the team may have needed to give him time in the AHL before bringing him to the NHL. Zacha, who has played in just three AHL games in his career, needs to have time to regain his confidence while playing lots of minutes, something that he wasn’t going to get with the Devils.

  • While there is no official word on the injury, Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, who was forced to leave Saturday’s game against Ottawa in the second period after taking a shot off his leg, is expected to travel with the team to New York, suggesting that his injury may not be too serious, according to the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington. There is swelling, which means the team won’t be able to determine his status until tomorrow, according to The Athletic’s Jon Vogl. The team plays the Rangers on Sunday.
  • The Philadelphia Flyers announced that goaltender Michal Neuvirth has left the team and returned to Philadelphia to be checked out by doctors and could soon find himself back on injured reserve. The 30-year-old injury-prone goalie played in one game since being recalled from a conditioning stint on Oct. 25th, but allowed six goals in that lone start to the Islanders two days later, and now currently holds a .727 save percentage.
  • Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that one interesting development in Philadelphia is the offensive improvement surrounding Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Robert Hagg. The 23-year-old sophomore currently leads all defenseman, including Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov, with seven points (just two points shy of his totals last year). The scribe says that Hagg has seemed more comfortable joining the rush and going deeper into the offensive zone than he was willing last season.
  • New York Islanders head coach Barry Trotz said fourth-line forward Matt Martin remains day-to-day with an upper-body injury, according to Newsday’s Andrew Gross. The 29-year-old has combined with Cal Clutterbuck and Casey Cizikas to form an impressive energy line for the Islanders. Martin already has equaled last year’s goal total of three in just 11 games.

Injury Notes: Red Wings, Bogosian, Beleskey, Peca

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The Detroit Red Wings’ defense could look much different to begin the season than many expected. With top pair defenseman Mike Green already shut down and confirmed to be out for at least the team’s opener due to a viral infection, coach Jeff Blashill revealed today that banged-up blue liners Danny DeKeyser, Jonathan Ericsson, and Trevor Daley are all considered questionable to begin the season. As Ansar Khan of MLive.com points out, it could be a very young, inexperienced defensive corps to start the year in Detroit. Niklas Kronwall and Nick Jensen could be the only regulars healthy enough to play, joined perhaps by a veteran like Brian Lashoff or Dylan McIlrath. Outside of those options, rookies will likely make up the rest of the top six. 5’8″ Joe Hicketts, who got a brief look last season, leads the way, with 2016 first-rounder Dennis Cholowski, second-rounder the same year Filip Hronek, and Czech import Libor Sulak in the mix as well.

  • Injury news about Zach Bogosian usually isn’t good and unfortunately, this could be trending in that direction as well. Bogosian has been taking it easy in training camp, working his way back from major hip surgery, but the Athletic’s Joe Yerndon reports that he has still managed to get injured. According to head coach Phil Housley, Bogosian is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Even worse, Yerndon notes that it is a new injury, unrelated to his hip issues. Bogosian’s career has been marred by frequent injuries and an inability to bounce back quickly. The Sabres have to hope that this case is different, as Bogosian and Marco Scandella will be needed to lead a young defensive unit and groom top overall pick Rasmus Dahlin.
  • It didn’t take long for the New York Rangers to get clarification on Matt Beleskey’s status. After head coach David Quinn said yesterday that it was “too early to tell” the extent of Beleskey’s injury, suffered during a fight on Monday night, the Rangers released an update today. Beleskey will be out two to four weeks with a separated shoulder, the team determined. Since Beleskey was a likely training camp casualty anyway, the only change for the Rangers is that he cannot be placed on waiver while injured. Instead, he will be placed on the injured reserve with only a minor salary cap charge.
  • Montreal Canadiens’ free agent addition Matthew Peca is currently sidelined. The team revealed that he is dealing with a minor groin injury. No timeline has been established for his return. Peca’s NHL ability and role for the Habs is still unclear, so missing preseason action and potentially the start of the season is unfortunate. The former Tampa Bay Lightning prospect will have to hit the ground running upon his return.

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