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Rasmus Dahlin

Avalanche Prepared To Pick Fourth If Senators Fold

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The first fireworks of the upcoming NHL Draft may show up at pick #4. When the Ottawa Senators acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche, part of the substantial package was a top-ten protected 2018 first-round pick. The terms of the deal afforded the Senators a choice between trading this year’s pick or next year’s pick to Colorado if the pick landed within the top ten spots. Finishing the season with the second-worst record in the league, Ottawa was obviously locked in to the top ten. Even after bad luck dropped them to fourth overall in the NHL Draft Lottery, GM Pierre Dorion confirmed that they would hold on to the pick this year and defer to the 2019 first-rounder.

However, that was back in April and things change. It seems more likely than ever that Erik Karlsson and/or Mike Hoffman will be traded away from Ottawa this off-season and that doesn’t bode well for a Duchene extension either. There also continue to be frustrations over the management of owner Eugene Melnyk and the fiscal future of the organization. Ottawa seems far from a free agent destination right now and no closer to turning around one of the worst records in the NHL. The initial Stanley Cup odds for next season reflect this, as the Senators at 100/1 odds are alone in last place. It’s understandable for public relations purposes that the Sens keep this year’s #4, both to add an exciting new prospect and to all but confirm to fans that the outlook for next season is better this season. It may not be the smart move though.

There is a trio of top prospects in the draft this year: defenseman Rasmus Dahlin and forwards Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina. After that, there is no consensus on the next-best player. In fact, the fourth overall pick more or less marks the beginning of a lesser tier of prospects; not exactly a power position in 2018. Next year, the Senators are almost certainly going to miss the playoffs and will be a lottery team with a chance to land in the top three with a lucky draw. According to odds makers, they are also the favorite to finish 31st, which would give them the best odds at the first overall pick – highly-touted franchise center Jack Hughes – and would mean that they could fall no farther than fourth again. There is risk in giving up a pick as high as #4 this year, but there is also substantial risk in not giving it away, blowing up the roster, and simply hoping for a better finish next year. The pain that the organization and the fans would feel about losing #1 after another brutal season would be far worse than giving up a non-consensus top player at #4 this year. The mounting pressure of that very real possibility could force the Senators to give in and surrender the 2018 pick.

The Avalanche know this and are remaining vigilant. The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers caught up with Colorado Director of Scouting Alan Hepple, who says the team knows what direction they would go in if they wind up with #4 this year after all. Per Chambers, the Senators can wait all the way until they are on the clock to make the pick to instead complete the trade this year. Hepple doesn’t think that will be the case, but the Avs are prepared in case it is. They certainly wouldn’t mind the spot, as the team nabbed defensive phenom Cale Makar in that same draft slot last year and would be happy to make a repeat performance. With their own pick at #16, Hepple says that the team will simply take the best player available, regardless of position, but at #4 they have identified a more pressing organizational need, as they did with the UMass puck-mover Makar last year.

If the first three picks go as expected and Ottawa isn’t thrilled by the next-best name on their draft board, they could crumble under the pressure of the potential repercussions: losing a higher pick next year. It could pay off or it could be a mistake in hindsight; there is no way to tell with a lot riding on the decision. However, if they do, Colorado is ready to jump in. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it remains a possibility, and an intriguing one, as draft day approaches.

Sabres Notes: O’Reilly, Ristolainen, Bogosian, Grubauer

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With the Stanley Cup champions crowned and the offseason getting underway, the trade season is about to get started. In Buffalo, many expect general manager Jason Botterill to make some changes after a dysfunctional season. The most popular name on the trade rumor circuit is Buffalo’s Ryan O’Reilly, who helped out the rumors after his season ended when he remarked he hated losing and lost his passion for the game around a locker room full of players who don’t care.

However, the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington believes that trading O’Reilly would be a mistake and advises Botterill to hold onto the center. One key reason is the team has now added two key players in Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Dahlin, both who should take the talent level up a notch in Buffalo. Trading a quality center in his prime doesn’t make a lot of sense if the goal is to be more competitive. How would the team replace O’Reilly’s minutes if the team traded him away? And that doesn’t even mention his value for his ability to win faceoffs.

Harrington said his comments made after the season makes sense. He wants to win. He is desperate for a winning situation. O’Reilly has already said at the World Championships last month that he was stoked about the Sabres winning the draft lottery and wants to stay in Buffalo. Another argument is that while he has a large contract, O’Reilly’s $52MM contract was heavily frontloaded with Buffalo already having paid $20MM in the first two years. Starting in 2019-20, he will cost just $6MM per year ($5MM signing bonus, $1MM salary), making it a very affordable contract in the coming years.

  • Harrington does say that the team probably should look to move on from defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. With Dahlin coming in, the team doesn’t need him as bad and the scribe believes that the constant losing has gotten to Ristolainen more than anyone and had trouble seeing eye-to-eye with Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, suggesting that the defenseman might need a change of scenery. Ristolainen’s numbers declined slightly in his fifth year with the team as he had six goals and 41 points in 73 games. He notes a trade rumor of Ristolainen for Edmonton’s Oscar Klefbom as a smart way to give two players change of sceneries without disrupting the team’s overall defense.
  • In the same article, Harrington questions the intelligence of buying out defenseman Zach Bogosian this offseason. With two more years on his seven-year, $36MM deal he signed back in 2013 with the Winnipeg Jets at $5.14MM AAV, the team might be better off sticking with his contract. A buyout would reduce their cap hit to $1.14MM over the next two years, but the Sabres would then have to shell out $2MM for the next two years following that when he wouldn’t be on the books anymore. Considering the team isn’t dealing with major cap implications at the moment, a buyout wouldn’t make much sense.
  • Harrington adds that the Sabres need to be taking a serious look at Washington Capitals goaltender Philipp Grubauer. With a major need in goal and the New York Islanders already showing interest, it would make a lot of sense for the Sabres to trade for the backup goaltender. After taking the starting job from Brayden Holtby for a time near the end of the season, many believe Grubauer is ready for a starters’ role next year.

Rasmus Dahlin And Other Top Picks Will Attend Scouting Combine

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Though it doesn’t seem like he has much to prove, Rasmus Dahlin will be in Buffalo next week for the NHL Scouting Combine, John Vogl of The Buffalo News reports. The Swedish defenseman is expected to go first-overall in the draft to the Buffalo Sabres, after finding himself at the top of almost every scouting list this season. Mark Scheig of The Hockey Writers confirms that Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, Brady Tkachuk, Noah Dobson and Evan Bouchard will all also be present at the event, which combines fitness testing with media availability and team meetings over a week-long period.

While fans enjoy seeing the fitness testing results, they rarely make drastic changes to rankings just before the draft. What may be more important are the meetings teams have with the players to start to understand their personalities and history. Those meetings can also be revealing on how the player plans on pursuing a professional career, whether they’re headed to college or back to Europe in the following seasons.

For Buffalo, it will give them the chance to bring in Dahlin and show him around the facilities that he will likely call home in a few months. The young defenseman is expected to step right into the NHL in 2018-19, and play big minutes for the Sabres as they try to rebound from several disappointing seasons. The other top picks will all meet with teams from all around the league, especially in a draft year that features very little consensus after the top few picks.

Morning Notes: Free Agency, Veilleux, Sweden

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Though we’re only partway through the second round of the playoffs, many fans have already started dreaming about what could happen on July 1st in free agency. Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) gives us an update on each of his top-20 free agents, including superstar John Tavares.

Obviously Custance can’t handicap a market, but he does mention the San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks and St. Louis Blues as potential pursuers if the New York Islanders’ captain does hit free agency. Tavares would have almost every team checking in should he get to the negotiating window a few days before July 1st.

  • The Halifax Mooseheads have hired a new head coach for the 2018-19 season. Eric Veilleux will be behind the bench for the QMJHL squad next season, fresh off his own departure from the Colorado Avalanche AHL affiliate. Veilleux has plenty of experience in the Q, having played there as a junior and coached for nearly a decade.
  • The IIHF handed out several suspensions yesterday to the Swedish World Junior squad, after the incidents that occurred after this year’s gold medal game. Players and coaches removed their medals before the post-game event was over, including captain Lias Andersson who tossed it into the crowd in frustration. Interestingly though, of the players suspended only goaltender Olle Eriksson Ek could realistically return to the tournament. The others—Andersson, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Jesper Boqvist and Rasmus Dahlin—have either graduated through age or are expected to be in the NHL full-time next year. Perhaps the biggest hit will be the coaching suspensions, which includes a three-game ban for head coach Tomas Monten.

Draft Lottery’s Biggest Winner Is Buffalo’s Ristolainen

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While adding superstar prospect Rasmus Dahlin with the No. 1 overall pick in June will aid in the Buffalo Sabres rebuild a lot quicker, perhaps the biggest beneficiary will be defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. Taken eighth overall in 2013, the blueliner has been tabbed as the team’s No. 1 defenseman since that day and treated as such as he’s averaged more than 26 minutes a game for the past three years. In fact, Ristolainen ranked fourth in the NHL this year in average ice time (ATOI) with 26:30 behind only Los Angeles Kings’ Drew Doughty, Minnesota Wild’s Ryan Suter and Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson.

However, as the years have passed, it’s been quite obvious that he’s not the coveted No. 1 defenseman that they hoped he’d be. In fact, as this season wrapped up, there has been talk of moving on from him. However, everything changed Saturday when the Buffalo Sabres won the draft lottery. With Dahlin taking over the responsibilities as the team’s top defenseman next season, which is inevitable, the team may get more production out of Ristolainen with a lesser role, according to The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy.

The scribe writes that Ristolainen has been leaned on too much over the course his career and his development has paid for it with the amount of minutes the team has forced him to play over his short career, mostly due to the fact that the Sabres have lacked any depth in quality defensemen over the years. Of course, he’s put up modest seasons, including three straight 40-point seasons, but has done nothing to earn top-flight minutes.

However, with Dahlin in the team’s rotation next season and perhaps another addition in the offseason, the Sabres will have more depth and can give Ristolainen more rest during games. Whether the right-handed defenseman is paired with the left-handed Dahlin or whether they are split into two pairs, the 23-year-old Ristolainen looks like he’s finally got the help he needed the last few years.

Throw in an improved season by Marco Scandella and a full-season from Brendan Guhle, there is a sign of hope in Buffalo. The team also is close to signing top Sweedish defenseman Lawrence Pilut and have also signed top college defenseman Will Borgen, although both could end up starting in the AHL for a while. Regardless, their blueline has a lot of promise.

 

Eastern Notes: Carolina GM Search, Simmonds, Islanders

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With just a 9.9 percent chance to finish in the top three, the Carolina Hurricanes beat the odds Saturday when they moved up from a team with the 11th-worst record in the league and were awarded the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft. While that gives the franchise lots of new options that they weren’t expecting, it also makes their general manager and coaching openings much more attractive, according to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer.

The general manager position, which has been open since the team transitioned former general manager Ron Francis to President of Hockey Operations on Mar. 7, was not a popular destination after new owner Tom Dundon ousted Francis and multiple candidates declined to interview, forcing to team to announce they would wait until the offseason to address their needs. On top of that, the team then lost head coach Bill Peters when he triggered an out-clause in his contract and took the head coaching position with the Calgary Flames.

However, Alexander writes both openings are now more intriguing with the No. 2 pick as adding an impact player immediately after they take the job is always a positive. Adding a winger like Andrei Svechnikov could change the team dramatically as he would likely be the No. 1 overall pick if Rasmus Dahlin not been there.

  • NHL.com’s Bill Meltzer writes the Philadelphia Flyers have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason. To start with, the team must depend on the continued development of their youth, including Nolan Patrick, Travis Konecny, Oskar Lindblom, Travis Sanheim, Robert Hagg and Samuel Morin. However, general manager Ron Hextall intends to make many roster changes to improve the team with the idea of adding more speed, especially to the special teams. Hextall, who is known for making offseason trades, is likely to be active again on the trade market and could attempt to move winger Wayne Simmonds. While Simmonds has said he wants to stay, the team could get a good return as the 30-year-old will enter the final year of a reasonable $3.975MM deal. With plenty of youth in their system working their way up, it would seem unlikely the Flyers would extend his contract.
  • With two picks in the lottery, the New York Islanders have multiple options in front of them, writes Arthur Staple of The Athletic (subscription required). While the team could use the 11th and 12th picks in the 2018 NHL Draft to trade down and pick up a top forward, the team could also stay where they are and rebuild the team’s prospect pool, which isn’t as strong as it once was. The scribe also adds that the team could use one of the picks in a package to acquire a veteran defenseman who could help fix their leaky blueline.

 

Draft Notes: Mock Draft, Rangers, Canadiens, Sabres

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Now that the lottery portion of the 2018 NHL draft has clarified, TSN’s Craig Button has already released his first mock draft. No surprise, the Buffalo Sabres are projected to take defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. The Carolina Hurricanes are projected to take winger Andrei Svechnikov at No. 2, who Button compares to Marian Hossa and who could walk in and join Carolina immediately next season, aiding their struggling offense.

Wingers Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk are targeted to be taken at No. 3 and No. 4 by the Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators, respectively, while the Arizona Coyotes are projected to select defenseman Quinn Hughes with the fifth pick, rounding out the top five.

  • While there is no shot at getting Dahlin, the New York Rangers have made it clear they want to move up in this year’s draft. With the eighth-worst record in the NHL this past season, the team moved back a spot in Saturday’s draft lottery. The Rangers have the ninth-overall pick in the 2018 NHL draft, but have after tearing down their team at the trade deadline, the team has quite a few assets to offer a team willing to trade down. The New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes the team is focusing on two teams, including the Ottawa Senators and Arizona Coyotes, two former trade partners, as potential landing spots at No. 4 and No. 5. While it’s considered to be a deep draft and the Rangers would get a quality player at No. 9, there is said to be a drop off around No. 4 or No. 5. The Rangers not only have the ninth-overall pick, but also have two other first-round picks, including the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Boston Bruins’ first-rounders, which could fall anywhere between 24 and 31. They also have two second and two third-round picks.
  • The Montreal Canadiens might also be a trade possibility for teams looking to move up. While the team had a couple of extra hours to imagine winning the lottery when they were among the top three first announced Saturday, the team ended up at No. 3. While there are plenty of high-quality wingers that would be available to the team, it doesn’t really help with the team’s top need, which is a big center, writes Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette. One interesting option would be if the Canadiens trade down or just reach for center Joe Veleno from the Drummondville Voltiguers of the QMJHL and was coached by Dominique Ducharme, who was just hired by Canadiens as an assistant coach. Cowan compares this situation to the 2016 draft when the Columbus Blue Jackets shocked everyone when they took Pierre-Luc Dubois with the third-overall pick, although no one is complaining now.
  • An interesting note from the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington, the Buffalo Sabres won the lottery twice Saturday. They initially won the No. 1 pick and then again won the No. 3 pick. The No. 3 pick was then was redrawn, which allowed the Montreal Canadiens to move up.

Ottawa Senators Will Keep Their 2018 First-Round Pick

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Another day, another loss for the Ottawa Senators. With a 13.5 percent chance to nab the No. 1 overall pick Saturday night and elite defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, the team didn’t get him. Nor did they win the No. 2 spot or even the No. 3. Instead, the Senators dropped two spots and will pick with the No. 4 pick.

Regardless, Ottawa general manager Pierre Dorion, who has the option of sending either their 2018 or their 2019 first-rounder to the Colorado Avalanche as part of the Matt Duchene trade, said last night that the team will keep their pick this year and the team will trade their 2019 unprotected first-rounder to the Avalanche, according to Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch. There had been talk several months ago that Ottawa was considering moving this pick if it was outside the top-three in case the team struggled again next year and with an unprotected pick in 2019, the team could lose the potential first-overall pick. However, with the chance to draft this year in the top five, the first time the team has had that chance since 2001, they don’t want to pass it up.

“We’re going to keep the pick,” Dorion said. “There’s no denying that we think that player we’re going to take at No. 4 is someone that’s going to be able to help us maybe as soon as next year … I think it will make us a better hockey team and we’re going to worry about 2019.”

The Senators are hoping to return to the success the team had in the 2016-17 season when the team got into the Eastern Conference Finals before losing to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. Garrioch writes the team will have multiple options at No. 4, including getting one of the three coveted wingers in the draft including Barrie Colts’ Andrei Svechnikov, Halifax Moosehead’s Filip Zadina, and Boston University’s Brady Tkachuk.

Buffalo Wins The 2018 Draft Lottery; Will Select First Overall

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The Buffalo Sabres have won the Rasmus Dahlin sweepstakes. Buffalo has one of the most hockey-rabid fan bases in the entire league and their faith has been rewarded with the chance to plant a franchise player on the blue line. After years of suffering with bottom of the standings finishes and placing second in the Connor McDavid race, the Sabres finally have the top choice.

Buffalo’s draw was revealed during the second period intermission of Game Two of the Vegas Golden Knights-San Jose Sharks series, after picks #4-#15 had been revealed earlier in the night. Vaulting their way into the top three was Carolina, who had a 70% chance of picking 12th overall. Instead, the Hurricanes now sit with the second overall pick to add to their collection of young talent, which has implications in terms of getting a chance at selecting a lethal goal scorer in Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, or Brady Tkachuk.

Montreal’s suffering through the 2017-18 season was eased a bit by getting the third overall pick and a shot at a talent who should be on NHL ice come fall, giving them the goal scorer they so desperately need. They could also go back to addressing the blue line with several high-end options available at the top of the draft, but scoring is a need and Zadina, Svechnikov, or Tkachuk would help with that need.

Dahlin has been pegged as the #1 overall choice for a while now and is projected to dramatically change the fortunes of whichever team won the rights to draft him. Buffalo won that right, tonight.

The top fifteen picks in the 2018 NHL Draft are as follows:

#1- Buffalo Sabres
#2- Carolina Hurricanes
#3- Montreal Canadiens
#4- Ottawa Senators
#5- Arizona Coyotes
#6- Detroit Red Wings
#7- Vancouver Canucks
#8- Chicago Blackhawks
#9- N.Y. Rangers
#10-Edmonton Oilers
#11- N.Y. Islanders
#12- N.Y. Islanders (from Calgary)
#13- Dallas Stars
#14- Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis)
#15- Florida Panthers

Snapshots: Draft Rankings, Pilut, Matthews

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TSN has released a special top-15 ranking prior to tomorrow’s draft lottery, and Rasmus Dahlin remains the unanimous choice for first overall. Beyond that, the trio of forwards Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk fill out 2-4 while four other defenseman land in the top ten.

There will undoubtedly be plenty of debate in the coming months, but one thing seems certain. Whoever wins the draft lottery tomorrow night will have Dahlin in their lineup come October. That may seem premature, but scouts seem to agree that he’ll be an impact player from day one. Make sure to tune in between the first and second periods of the Vegas Golden Knights-San Jose Sharks tomorrow night.

  • John Vogl of the Buffalo News reports on rumors that Lawrence Pilut has signed with the Buffalo Sabres, adding that a deal can’t be officially announced until the defenseman finishes his stint with the Swedish national team. Pilut, 22, registered 38 points for HV71 in the SHL this season, leading all defensemen. Undersized but talented, he would add some skill to a defense corps in Buffalo that has had trouble moving the puck in recent years.
  • Though there had been some rumors about a potential rift between Mike Babcock and Auston Matthews, both parties denied any problems when asked today during their season-ending media availability. Both men are obviously disappointed by the results of Wednesday’s game 7 against the Boston Bruins, but made it clear that nothing had changed in their relationship.

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