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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2019

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $73,541,089 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Kunin (one year, $925K)
F Jordan Greenway (one year, $917K)
F Nico Sturm (one year, $874K)

Potential Bonuses

Kunin: $600K
Greenway: $500K

Kunin and Greenway will both have to earn their way onto the team this year, but both have legitimate shots at making the team as a potential third line forward. Kunin showed some promise last season, playing in 49 games and scoring six goals and 11 points, although he will have to take his game up a notch to stay there. Greenway, on the other hand, scored 12 goals over 81 games, picking up 24 points, but the former Boston University star, has the potential for a breakout season for the Wild.

Sturm was the team’s big signing this offseason as he was considered to be one of the top unrestricted free-agent college forwards this year and choose to ink a deal with Minnesota. He scored 36 goals over three seasons at Clarkson University, and while he could make the team out of training camp, he might need a year of seasoning in the AHL as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Mikko Koivu ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Jared Spurgeon ($5.18MM, UFA)
F J.T. Brown ($688K, UFA)

At 36 years of age, this could be his final year with Minnesota, although much of that decision will depend on how his final season will turn out. The captain was having a solid season with eight goals and 29 points in 48 games, but his season was cut short in February when he went down with a torn ACL and torn meniscus in his right knee. The team can only hope that Koivu bounces back from his injury and is ready to go as the season opens.

Spurgeon, on the other hand, is coming off another impressive season with the Wild and while there had been rumors of Minnesota looking to move their 29-year-old defensive star, the team also hasn’t gotten very far in locking him up this summer as he is eligible to sign an extension. With so much money tied into veteran players, the real question is whether there will be money left to sign Spurgeon to a new deal or whether he wants to stay. If no deal can be made, Spurgeon could be a valuable trade chip at the trade deadline.

Two Years Remaining

G Devan Dubnyk ($4.33MM, UFA)
D Jonas Brodin ($4.17MM, UFA)
F Eric Staal ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($2.88MM, UFA)
D Greg Pateryn ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.9MM, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($1.9MM, RFA)
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($1.49MM, RFA)
D Nick Seeler ($725K, UFA)
D Brad Hunt ($700, UFA)

A lot of the Wild contracts are set with two years remaining, which could make for an interesting offseason in two years, considering that a number of their young players and key pieces will come up at the same time. The team must decide over the next two years is Dubnyk will continue to be the goaltender of the future down the road. He’ll be 35 at that point and he will have to prove he’s still a top-line goaltender. Dubnyk has had two solid seasons over the past two years. He finished the 2018-19 season with a 2.54 GAA and a .913 save percentage in 67 games.

Brodin is another candidate, whose status could be determined by what happens with Spurgeon. The 26-year-old has been a solid defensive presence and a top-four performer, but will have to prove that he is in the team’s long-term plans. If the team signs Spurgeon, it might have to move on from Brodin to save some of its cap room, but the team still has two years to sort it out. After two impressive seasons with Minnesota, Staal’s play dropped a little last year as he managed just 22 goals after tallying 70 in his first two years with the Wild. However, at 36, the team hopes he can still provide enough offense to lead the team and eventually take more of a middle-six role in the future.

The team also has a number of youngsters who will still be restricted free agents, but a breakout year from Hartman, Eriksson Ek or Donato could make any of them an expensive contract in two years. Hartman was brought in to provide a combination of scoring and grit to the team’s bottom-six, while both Eriksson Ek and Donato are both young pieces that the team hopes can move into their top-six within the next two years. Eriksson Ek has struggled since reaching the NHL, scoring just seven goals last season in 57 games, while Donato had stalled in Boston before breaking out after the Wild picked him up at the trade deadline. Donato picked up 16 points in 22 regular season games with Minnesota.

Three Years Remaining

F Victor Rask ($4MM, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($785K, UFA)

Unfortunately, one trade that brought out the wrath of fans was the trade in which now former GM Paul Fenton sent underachieving Nino Neiderreiter to Carolina for Rask. While taking Rask back was part of the deal to match salaries to a certain extent, Neiderreiter established himself as a top-six player in Carolina, while Rask struggled even more. The 26-year-old Rask finished the season with just three goals, two while in Minnesota and there remain questions about what role Rask will play this season. While many have him penciled in as the team’s fourth-line center, there is a legitimate possibility that he could lose find himself buried in the AHL if he can’t rebound and put together a better season. That shouldn’t be too hard. He did score 51 goals over the previous three seasons, so there is potential. As for Stalock, the team has a reliable backup at a very friendly price, but could easily cut him loose if the team can find a better option in net over the next three years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Zach Parise ($7.54MM through 2024-25)
D Ryan Suter ($7.54MM through 2024-25)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM through 2023-24)
D Mathew Dumba ($6MM through 2023-24)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM through 2022-23)

The matching contracts of Parise and Suter are starting to be felt in Minnesota. While both players are still providing solid play, the fact that Parise is 35 and Suter will be 35 in January, could start to be worrisome to fans as they each have six mores seasons left and their play could start declining soon. Parise has dealt with injuries for the past few years although he only missed eight games last season. However, before being fired, Fenton did look into the possibility of trading off Parise, but the pair were brought to Minnesota in 2012 to win a championship and with many people not picking them to even reach the playoffs this year, their usefulness might be at an end unless Minnesota can reshape its roster into a winner sooner than many have been expected.

With what many people thought was a rebuilding phase coming, many people were thrown off when the team signed the 32-year-old Zuccarello to a five-year deal, giving them another high-priced veteran on the team. However, Zuccarello is a solid playmaker who should make a big impact on the Wild’s top-six. He was impressive in the playoffs for the Dallas Stars, scoring four goals and 11 assists in 13 games last year. Zucker has been another player rumored to be on the move after a 33-goal move in 2017-18 and a decline to 21 goals last year. However, the team can only hope that Zucker can return to his 30-goal ways. Regardless, even with a new GM in Minnesota, the team might also have a great trade chip if the team wants to move out a contract.

With the exception of a fight that cost him a good chunk of the season, Dumba has established himself as a first-line defenseman, scoring 12 goals and 22 points in just 32 games after a 50-point season the previous year. Finally healthy, Dumba should step up and be one of the team’s top players on the blueline and could be a bargain over the next few years if he continues to develop his game.

Buyouts

F Tyler Ennis ($1.22MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Kevin Fiala

The key to Fenton’s tenure will be how Fiala fares. The team unloaded Mikael Granlund in an attempt to bring Fiala in, a young and talented winger. The 23-year-old posted 23 goals and 48 points in 2017-18, but struggled out of the gate in Nashville, posting just 10 goals and 32 points before the trade. In Minnesota, he scored three goals and seven points in 19 games and will have to prove that he was worth the trade. Of course, the Wild must find a way to sign him and might be forced to use a bridge deal to bring him in.

Best Value: Dumba
Worst Value: Parise

Looking Ahead

The Wild are not necessarily expected to make a big impact on the Central Division considering the division is loaded with top teams and might be the most challenging one in the league. However, the team has a number of young players who could take that next step this year and the team will need that if they want to compete in the Central. Of course, the Wild must also avoid injuries, which have ravaged the franchise for the last few years. Their high-priced veterans must stay healthy and continue to contribute at a high level for the next few years or Minnesota will be in even bigger trouble.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $80,529,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Miro Heiskanen (two years, $894K)
F Roope Hintz (one year, $812K)

Potential Bonuses

Heiskanen: $2.5MM

Hintz was a regular for Dallas in the second half of last season before really turning it on in the playoffs.  He tied for the team lead in goals in the postseason and in doing so, he should be a safe bet to be a regular this season.  However, with the limited track record, he shouldn’t be a candidate for a long-term contract just yet.

Heiskanen had a tremendous rookie season and quickly established himself as a fixture on the top pairing.  At 20, there’s still plenty of room for improvement as well.  Keep a close eye at what the top of the post-ELC RFA market winds up being for the defensemen that are still unsigned.  That figure will probably wind up as a starting point for extension talks in July.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Radek Faksa ($2.2MM, RFA)
F Martin Hanzal ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Mattias Janmark ($2.3MM, UFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Roman Polak ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Andrej Sekera ($1.75MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses

Perry: $1.75MM
Sekera: $500K

Hanzal was supposed to come in and stabilize their center situation.  Instead, he has been injured – a lot.  He’s not expected to play this coming season which makes him an LTIR candidate and gives Dallas the potential for some in-season cap flexibility.  That’s not a good return value-wise on a player that was supposed to be a core piece but it’s something at least.  Janmark had a year to forget as his goal total dropped from 19 to just six.  As a result, he got his qualifying offer and nothing more but a repeat performance could see his AAV cut in half a year from now.  Faksa was the one player outside of their big three up front that put up a double-digit goal total (even if his output also dipped).  This is the final year of his bridge contract but it’s hard to imagine that the Stars will want to commit to a long-term deal.  Instead, something that buys out a year or two of UFA eligibility with AAV a little over $3MM may be the likelier outcome.  Perry had a tough injury-plagued season with Anaheim and was bought out in June.  Expectations will be a lot lower with the Stars but the pressure will still be high as a rebound year would go a long way towards getting him a raise and a multi-year contract.

Polak brought some experience to the back end last season and impressed enough to sign before free agency got underway with a nice raise.  At this stage of his career though, he’s probably going year-to-year and with a very limited offensive game, he’s going to stay in this price range for any future deals.  Sekera has dealt with knee trouble the last couple of seasons which eventually got him bought out by Edmonton to free up some cap space.  If he can show that he has recovered and can lock down a top-four role, he could garner a lot of interest and a good raise next summer.

Khudobin is coming off a very strong season that saw him post a new career best in games played to go along with a .923 SV%, a mark that was well above average for all goaltenders let alone backups.  A similar performance could elevate him to a status where a team might be willing to make him the 1A part of a platoon which would carry an extra million or so on his contract.

Two Years Remaining

F Andrew Cogliano ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Blake Comeau ($2.4MM, UFA)
F Jason Dickinson ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Taylor Fedun ($738K, UFA)
D Stephen Johns ($2.35MM, UFA)
D Jamie Oleksiak ($2.138MM, UFA)

Cogliano was brought in to shake up their forward group in a midseason trade but he wound up producing at lesser rate than he did with Anaheim.  He’s coming off a career-low in points (17) and ATOI (12:35).  At this point, he looks like a potential buyout candidate next summer if he doesn’t turn things around.  Comeau saw as much ice time last season as he did the year before with Colorado but barely wound up with half the production.  Their additions are likely to push him down the depth chart which may not help either.  It’s hard to see him getting a raise two years from now.  Dickinson is coming off his first season that saw him play somewhat regularly plus a good showing in the playoffs.  That earned him a bridge contract but he’ll need to progress off of the fourth line over the next couple of years or risk being surpassed by a cheaper fit for that unit.

Johns missed all of last season with a concussion and while the team is optimistic he’ll be able to return this year, it’s still far too early to assess what his next contract could look like.  Oleksiak has had a weird journey the last couple of years.  He was deemed expendable by Dallas and was traded to Pittsburgh only to be traded back last season for the same price the Penguins originally paid.  However, despite the reacquisition, his role with the Stars was even more limited than it was the first time around.  He’s someone that they will likely look to trade again and could also be a buyout candidate next summer.  Fedun was acquired last year to serve as AHL depth but when injuries arose, he made the most of it and basically became a regular in the second half.  That earned him a bit of job security with a two-year deal and if Dallas tries to push him through waivers, his performance last year could get him a look elsewhere.

Three Years Remaining

D John Klingberg ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($7MM, UFA)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM, UFA)

Pavelski’s departure from San Jose comes as a bit of a surprise but the fact he was able to get a three-year at the age of 35 isn’t.  He’ll provide the Stars with another legitimate scoring threat beyond their top line while playing a strong all-around game.  The final season could be a bit iffy in terms of value but it was still a worthwhile move for them.  Radulov has fit in quite well in his first two seasons with the Stars and has been an important part of that top trio.  Like Pavelski, the final year could be a little worrisome but he has already given them a strong return with two straight 72-point seasons.  Neither player will likely come close to this amount on their next contract if there is one.

The decision to bypass a bridge deal for Klingberg back in 2015 looks like a brilliant decision now.  He’s on one of the best bargain contracts in the league as a legitimate number one defenseman making the rate of a number four option.  At an absolute minimum, he should be able to double his current AAV on his next deal.  Chances are that he’ll be able to do even better, especially with the rates for top blueliners going up now.  An AAV around the $10MM range is certainly obtainable and with the two forwards having expiring deals, the Stars should be able to afford to keep him around at that rate if they so desire.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM through 2024-25)
G Ben Bishop ($4.917MM through 2022-23)
D Esa Lindell ($5.8MM through 2024-25)
F Tyler Seguin ($9.85MM through 2026-27)

Seguin voiced his frustration with his contract situation last summer but they were able to agree on this deal just before training camp.  The performance that followed was rather underwhelming in the first half although he turned it on down the stretch.  This is a bit of a high price tag but he’s in the prime of his career and a safe bet to be around a point per game so it’s not a massive overpayment.  Benn is coming off a tough season that saw his output drop from 79 to 53 points which isn’t the type of return they need from one of the top-paid wingers in the league.

Lindell has largely flown under the radar but has emerged as a quality top pairing defender.  His offensive game will limit his overall earning upside but this should still prove to be a good contract for Dallas for a long time.

Bishop is coming off his best season at the age of 32 and is signed at a well below market rate as far as starters go.  However, injuries have limited him to less playing time than most starters in the last few years.  As he gets older, the deal will carry a bit more risk but right now, it’s a strong value contract.

Buyouts

F Valeri Nichushkin ($700K in 2019-20, $450K in 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Julius Honka

Honka’s stock has plummeted over the past year and a bit.  He has gone from a young defender with some upside to one that can’t crack the lineup and needs a change of scenery.  They’ve been open to moving Honka for a little while now and it’s possible that some other team will be the one signing him to his next deal.

Best Value: Klingberg
Worst Value: Benn

Looking Ahead

As a result of their offseason spending, the Stars would have been tight to the Upper Limit for this season had it not been for Hanzal’s injury.  Now, their ability to place him on LTIR will give them some in-season flexibility which will certainly come in handy.

There aren’t any big expiring deals to worry about for next season so the Heiskanen extension will be the next big task for GM Jim Nill.  While they have some big tickets on the books, they have enough bargain deals that they should be in reasonable shape cap wise for the next few years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $65,884,761 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Samuel Girard (one year, $728K)
F Tyson Jost (one year, $886K)
D Cale Makar (two years, $881K)

Potential Bonuses

Girard: $182.5K
Jost: $850K
Makar: $2.5MM

Jost hasn’t quite been able to light it up like Colorado was hoping for when they made him a top-ten pick back in 2016.  He has been decent in a bottom-six role but hasn’t been able to move up much on the depth chart just yet.  Given their offseason moves, that’s likely to continue to be the case this season which makes him a strong candidate for a short-term second contract.

Makar made an immediate impact for the Avs in the postseason after signing at the end of his college campaign.  He’s projected to be a key part of their team this season and with the offensive upside he has, it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be able to command a contract that could be comparable to some of the top ones that other post-ELC defenders will get in the coming weeks when they eventually sign.  He’s also a safe bet to reach some of his ‘A’ bonuses.  Girard’s quite the bargain considering he averaged nearly 20 minutes a night last season.  That will soon change with his extension (covered later) kicking in next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Mark Barberio ($1.45MM, UFA)
F Andre Burakovsky ($3.25MM, RFA)
D Kevin Connauton ($1.375MM, UFA)
G Pavel Francouz ($950K, UFA)
F Vladislav Kamenev ($750K, RFA)
F Valeri Nichushkin ($850K, RFA)
F Colin Wilson ($2.6MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($3.2MM, RFA)

Burakovsky’s qualifying offer was too rich for what Washington could afford so they flipped the underachieving winger to Colorado for a pair of draft picks.  He has shown flashes of being a capable top-six piece but also spent a lot of time on the fourth line last season.  The change of scenery could do him some good if he rediscovers his scoring touch but if not, he has to be considered a non-tender candidate in June.  Wilson hasn’t lived up to his draft billing but he has carved out a role for himself as a capable third liner.  He opted to take a pay cut to stick around and his current AAV is about what he should expect if he actually tests the open market next summer.  Nichushkin had a disastrous year in Dallas which led to a buyout.  The Avalanche scooped him up on a cheap deal that has to be considered his last chance.  If things don’t go well here, he’s probably back in the KHL in 2020-21.  Kamenev has dealt with significant injury issues in his two years with the organization.  Accordingly, unless he has a breakout offensive campaign, a one-year deal in the $1MM range is likely to happen a year from now.

Zadorov has been a player that has been in trade speculation for a while.  There isn’t quite the demand for players his size like there once was but he’s still a serviceable third pairing option at a minimum.  However, that price point for someone in that role isn’t ideal either.  He’s eligible for arbitration again next summer but another year like 2018-19 could have him in the non-tender discussion.  Connauton was the NHL piece that came back from Arizona for Carl Soderberg.  He’s more of a depth player than a top-four option so his next deal shouldn’t cost much more than his current price tag.  Barberio battled a couple of injuries last season while also spending a lot of time as a healthy scratch.  He’s still likely viewed as a reserve piece on their current depth chart so it’s unlikely he’ll play enough to command any sort of raise a year from now.

Francouz spent most of last season in the minors but with Semyon Varlamov now gone, the netminder will get his first crack at being a backup in the NHL at the age of 29.  His size will scare away a lot of teams no matter how he performs which will ultimately limit his market.  Still, given the backup goalie market, a strong showing could have him set to double his deal a year from now.

Two Years Remaining

F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Matt Calvert ($2.85MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($4.25MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Gabriel Landeskog ($5.571MM, UFA)

Landeskog has seen his value rebound considerably the last couple of years after a very rough 2016-17 campaign.  He surpassed the point per game mark for the first time in his career last season and was a very effective part of their top line.  While it feels like he has been around for a really long time already, he’ll only be 28 when his contract expires.  A max-term contract with a big raise is in his future if he can stay around the 70-point mark.  Calvert is coming off a career-best 26 points and is a capable defensive forward.  Even so, the deal seemed a little expensive a year ago and with the extra depth they have now, his role could actually be lessened which would make it hard for him to match this contract two years from now.  Bellemare was brought in to bolster the fourth line and should be able to do that.  Having said that, he’ll also be 36 when his contract is up and players that age with that type of role rarely get raises.

Cole landed a significant contract for someone that’s more of a stay-at-home player but he certainly had a good season.  It’s hard to imagine him getting another deal at this price tag as a 32-year-old but another multi-year deal is likely.

Grubauer was hit or miss last season and was the backup for most of the year although he got the nod in the playoffs when it counted the most (and did quite well).  Still, he has yet to play in 40 regular season games in a single season.  If he can do well with a starters’ workload, he could double his AAV two years from now.  However, it’s way too early to project whether he’ll be able to do that.

Three Years Remaining

F Nazem Kadri ($4.5MM, UFA)

Kadri was the key player coming back in the trade that saw Tyson Barrie (a pending UFA) and Alexander Kerfoot go to Toronto.  His tenure with the Maple Leafs ended poorly with another postseason suspension while he’s coming off a down year offensively.  However, he scored 32 goals in each of the last two seasons where he was a fixture in the top six, something that he’ll be with the Avs.  If he can get back to that form and restore some value, he’ll be a nice bargain contract for Colorado while setting himself up for a big raise down the road.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F J.T. Compher ($3.5MM through 2022-23)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM through 2022-23)
D Samuel Girard ($5MM from 2020-21 through 2026-27)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM through 2022-23)

While it seems unfathomable now, there was a time when MacKinnon’s contract was believed to carry some risk.  Committing that type of term to someone whose production was somewhat volatile on his entry-level deal was far from an automatic call.  However, the signing has worked out fantastic as all of a sudden, the 24-year-old has to be considered one of the top bargains in the league with his second straight season of at least 97 points.  Colorado is getting top line production at a price tag of a second liner.  Lots can change in the next four years but if he stays at this type of scoring pace, he’ll easily crack the $10MM mark on his next deal.

Donskoi is coming off a strange year.  He was productive in the first half of the season but managed just a single goal in his final 46 games (regular season plus playoffs).  Despite that, GM Joe Sakic wasted little time giving him this contract, a clear sign that the team believes he can become a top-six forward.  Given how he finished though, there’s some risk here.  Compher’s development has been slow but steady but he settled in on the second line last season.  That’s a good price tag for someone in that role but it took them buying no UFA years on his deal to get that AAV.  Assuming his development continues, he could be in the $5MM to $6MM range on his next contract.

Johnson, when healthy, has been a capable player in a top pairing role, one that’s not exactly his best fit.  However, he has dealt with significant injuries in three of the last five seasons which has limited his value somewhat.  He’ll be 35 at the end of his deal and by then, he’ll be seeing less playing time so it’s unlikely he’ll get a higher AAV next time around.  Girard signed his extension earlier this summer and while the term is certainly an eye-opener for a team that didn’t have anyone signed beyond four years from now, they’re banking on him being a fixture in their top four for the foreseeable future.

Buyouts

D Brooks Orpik ($1.5MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Tyson Barrie ($2.75MM in 2019-20)

Still To Sign

F Mikko Rantanen

Rantanen set new career highs in goals (31), assists (56), and points (87) last season despite missing eight games due to an undisclosed injury.  He was a central element on their top line and at 22, he’s entering the prime of his career.  He’s widely considered to be the number two remaining restricted free agent and the expectation is that he’ll be getting a contract around the $9MM range which could vary a little bit depending on the term of the deal.

Best Value: MacKinnon
Worst Value: Johnson (because of the injury history)

Looking Ahead

Few teams have a cleaner cap situation than Colorado.  There really aren’t any bad contracts on the roster that could be classified as overpayments (which made picking a worst value pretty difficult).  Even with a big contract coming for Rantanen, they’ll have plenty of cap room for the upcoming season.

Looking ahead, two years from now could be a little rough with Makar and Landeskog both up while they’ll need to re-sign or replace Grubauer as their starting goalie.  The good news is that they have a lot of middle-tier short-term deals on the books which can be filled by cheaper options and prospects which will help offset the higher cap hits for those players.  That makes them about as well-equipped as possible to handle the crunch in 2021.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Chicago Blackhawks

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Chicago Blackhawks

Current Cap Hit: $78,163,461 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kirby Dach (three years, $925K)
F Dominik Kubalik (one year, $925K)
F Anton Wedin (one year, $925K)
D Adam Boqvist (three years, $894K)
F Dylan Strome (one year, $863K)
F Alexander Nylander (two years, $863K)
F Alex DeBrincat (one year, $778K)

Potential Bonuses

Dach: $2.5MM
Strome: $2.48MM
Nylander: $850K
Kubalik: $850K
Boqvist: $850K
DeBrincat: $33K

The Blackhawks have done quite a bit of work to bring in a number of top players on entry-level contracts over the past few years in hopes of taking a team that was loaded with high-priced, aging talent and getting them back into playoff contention. They have hit the jackpot with DeBrincat, who immediately stepped onto the ice and has been a phenomenal top-six player for the past two years, scoring 69 goals so far, including a key 41-goal season last year. The diminutive winger was passed up by many teams in the 2016 draft and has proven that his size isn’t an issue on the team. The only problem is that his entry-level deal will be up at the end of the season, meaning the Blackhawks will likely have to pay a high price to lock him up. Strome, in the meantime, has been a solid trade acquisition. The top prospect, who couldn’t seem be able to turn the corner in the pros, broke out once arriving in Chicago, putting up 17 goals and 51 points in 58 games. If he can produce at a similar level, the Blackhawks will have to offer pay up again, giving them two potential significant contracts the team will have to pay out one year from now.

Chicago also is banking on a number of their draft picks to make an impact. Dach, the third-overall pick in this year’s draft, could be an option for the team if he can prove he’s ready for NHL action now, but with a number of young forwards pushing for playing time on their roster, he’d have to dominate and prove he might be ready to assume a third-line center position. Boqvist, the team’s eighth-overall pick in 2018, will challenge for playing time as well, but could just as easily spend time in the AHL to get used to playing against adults for part of the season first. Regardless, the team has two core pieces that are close to joining the organization.

General manager Stan Bowman has also made an effort in bringing in talent from outside the organization as the team has brought in a pair of prospects over from Europe in Wedin and Kubalik. The 26-year-old Wedin broke out in his rookie season in the SHL with 14 goals, while Kubalik scored 25 goals and 57 points in 50 games in the NLA. The team also surprised a few people earlier this summer when it traded top defensive prospect Henri Jokiharju to Buffalo for Alexander Nylander. The team hopes to get Nylander going as the eighth-overall pick in 2016 has so far struggled with consistency in three AHL seasons.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Corey Crawford ($6MM, UFA)
G Robin Lehner ($5MM, UFA)
F Drake Caggiula ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Erik Gustafsson ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Slater Koekkoek ($925K, RFA)

The team did a phenomenal job of bringing in some goaltending help by stealing away UFA goaltender Lehner with a one-year, $5MM deal. That’s a steal if Lehner can produce anything close to last year’s numbers of a 2.13 GAA and .930 save percentage in 46 games. The 2018-19 Jennings and Masterton Trophy winner last year, Lehner can stabilize the Blackhawks goaltending situation, which has struggled due to concussion issues that Crawford has sustained over the past two years. Without Crawford, the team has struggled in goal. The hope is that both will be healthy this year and can share the workload, but if Crawford has trouble getting on the ice again, Chicago can now turn to Lehner. With both players down to one year remaining before unrestricted free agency, the Blackhawks can look at how both players fare this year and offer a long-term deal to the player they feel can best help them in the future.

The team may have their most challenging decision to make about Gustafsson next season. The rising defenseman put up impressive numbers in a full season last year after looking sharp in the second-half of 2017-18. The 27-year-old scored 17 goals and 60 points and if he can duplicate a season like that could find himself to be one of the most marketable UFA blueliners next year. With the Blackhawks having to hand out big contracts to DeBrincat and Strome, the team may have to move Gustafsson at the trade deadline or let him go at the end of the season for nothing.

Two Years Remaining

F Brandon Saad ($6MM, UFA)
F Zack Smith ($3.25MM, UFA)
F David Kampf ($1MM, RFA)
D Carl Dahlstrom ($850K, RFA)
F Dylan Sikura ($750K, RFA)
F John Quenneville ($750K, RFA)

The team has two contracts that they might want to see gone soon. The team re-acquired Saad back in 2017 in hopes of bringing back a big-time goal scorer. However, Saad hasn’t been nearly as dominant since returning, although he did rebound with a 23-goal campain last season. However at $6MM AAV, Saad could easily be a candidate to move on from when they need to free up some extra cash next offseason. Smith is in a similar situation. The team acquired Smith this summer in a swap of bad contracts as the team managed to unload Artem Anisimov. Smith, however, scored just nine goals last season in Ottawa and could have a hard time locking down a spot in the bottom-six with so many younger players pushing for playing time.

The team can only hope that some of their younger players like Sikura and the newly acquired Quenneville can contribute immediately, but both would have to take their game up a notch to prove themselves at the NHL level. Sikura, signed out of Northeastern University after the 2018 season, fared well in the AHL, but failed to register a goal in 33 games with the Blackhawks. The team also hopes that Kampf and Dahlstrom can prove themselves in their lineup.

Three Years Remaining

D Calvin de Haan ($4.55MM, UFA)
D Olli Maatta ($4.08MM, UFA)
D Connor Murphy ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Andrew Shaw ($3.9MM, UFA)
F Ryan Carpenter ($1MM, UFA)
G Collin Delia ($1MM, UFA)

In hopes of improving its defense, the team went out and acquired a pair of defenders in de Haan and Maatta over the summers. The Blackhawks picked up de Haan from Carolina  and while he’s currently dealing with a shoulder injury and isn’t expected to start the season, he has proven to be a solid defender for years and should upgrade the team’s top-four. The team also moved some of its young forward depth by sending Dominik Kahun to Pittsburgh to get the defensive-minded Maatta. The two veteran blueliners should bolster a defense that had plenty of issues over the past few years. However, both come with significant contracts, especially if either defenseman struggles to succeed in Chicago. The team also has Murphy, who the team acquired two years ago from Arizona, who has three years remaining and has found himself a solid contributor on the team’s blueline.

The team also has acquired Shaw this summer to improve their depth in hopes of getting Chicago back in the playoffs. The former Blackhawk should add a significant presence on their bottom-six and add an element of physicality to the team. Carpenter, signed away from Vegas, should also improve the team’s bottom-six.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Patrick Kane ($10.5MM through 2022-23)
F Jonathan Toews ($10.5MM through 2022-23)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.88MM through 2023-24)
D Duncan Keith ($5.54MM through 2022-23)

Things will likely change next season, but Chicago’s four biggest contracts haven’t changed with all of them, minus Seabrook’s, down to four more years and starting to look more and more manageable. Kane continues to amaze at age 30 as he posted 44 goals and a career-high in points with 110. His contract doesn’t even look like it’s a questionable one. The 31-year-old Toews also had a resurgent season as he tallied a career-high 35 goals and 81 points, showing that as long as he has talented players around him, he is more than capable of justifying his $10.5MM AAV.

Keith is somewhat of a different story. He’s 36 now and will be 40 when his contract ends and while there has been an evident decline, the veteran has still shown that he’s a solid defender, scoring six goals and 40 points last year and is averaging more than 23 minutes of ice time a game still. The question will be how long can Keith keep up those numbers and will his game decline even more over the next couple of years. Seabrook, however, has that extra season on his deal as he is locked up for five more years. At 34-year-old, Seabrook has seen an obvious decline that even saw his minutes drop under 20 minutes a game for the first time in his career, not a good sign when the team has him under contract until 2024. The team can only hope that he can come back and prove that he still has the skills to be a top-four defenseman.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F  Brendan Perlini

Chicago still has one restricted free agent and must find a number that will make the youngster happy, but considering his inconsistent season, the team may have some trouble figuring out how much to pay him. Perlini, also acquired with Strome in the Nick Schmaltz trade during the season last year, struggled at first in Chicago, but finally broke out in March with eight goals and 10 points in 13 games. A one-year or bridge deal would be the most likely course of action to see whether Perlini’s late success can be duplicated. The former first-round pick from 2014 could be a major asset if Chicago can get the most out of the team.

Best Value: Lehner
Worst Value: Seabrook

Looking Ahead

The Blackhawks have done quite a bit in the last year to improve their team with the hopes of getting their veteran core back in the playoffs once again after a two-year absence. Chicago has added a bunch of veteran players and young and cheap roster additions that should be able to turn their team around. The key, of course, is the team needs their veterans to continue to thrive, while their younger players must continue to improve. On top of that, the Blackhawks must hope that a number of their roster additions can take that next step in their development and prove to be valuable to the team’s overall depth.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $82,864,294 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Ilya Samsonov (two years, $925K)
F Jonas Siegenthaler (one year, $714K)

Potential Bonuses

Samsonov: $550K
Siegenthaler: $83K

The one failing of the Washington Capitals and their dominance of their run over the years has been their inability, lately, to develop young talent that can step in. Again there are few players on entry-level contracts who can help ease the Capitals’ salary cap. However, the team believes that they might be close to bringing in their top prospect in Samsonov. The talented Russian goaltender finally arrived in North America last season and had mixed results in his first year in the AHL. However, Samsonov is likely to get a long look in training camp this season and even if he doesn’t make the team, he’s due to make his NHL debut at some point this season. After all, the Capitals must figure out quickly whether they have their future No. 1 netminder.

Siegenthaler finally looks ready to step into a permanent role on the Capitals’ blueline. The 22-year-old showed promise last year in 26 regular season games and even saw some playoff action with four games last season. The defensive defenseman is a perfect addition to a defense that is still dealing with injuries.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicklas Backstrom ($6.7MM, UFA)
G Braden Holtby ($6.1MM, UFA)
D Radko Gudas ($2.35MM, UFA)
D Christian Djoos ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Chandler Stephenson ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Travis Boyd ($800K, RFA)
F Brendan Leipsic ($700K, RFA)

Washington will have a big decision to make next offseason as they have two of their core pieces who will become unrestricted free agents and with serious cap issue for several years coming, the team will almost assuredly have to make a tough decision and are likely to lose at least one of them for nothing next summer. Neither is likely to be traded considering the team is strong enough to compete for a Stanley Cup, but the team just can’t afford both. The most likely scenario is the team finds a way to retain Backstrom, but will be forced to let Holtby go, considering that top goaltenders have been cashing in and the Capitals likely won’t have the money to keep him around. Of course much could change, but considering that Washington does have a top goaltending prospect who is almost ready for the NHL, losing Holtby might be an easier blow to take than losing Backstrom.

The remaining group will have to prove their worth. The most interesting player could be Gudas, who is considered a likeable locker room guy, but the Capitals will have to wait and see how well the veteran blueliner fits in with their defense and what the cost of retaining him in the future will be.

Two Years Remaining

F Alex Ovechkin ($9.54MM, UFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($3.35MM, RFA)

While it’s hard to imagine a Capitals team without their star in Ovechkin seems highly unlikely, Washington will have to see whether they can convince their star to re-sign. He’ll be 36 years old by the time he signs his next contract, which means he has quite a few options and while re-signing with Washington is the most likely possibility, the veteran has a number of options which could include returning to Russia to finish his career. Signing with Washington also could hinge on how the Capitals will look in two years. If the team looks like an aging team that has little real chance at winning a title, Ovechkin could also look elsewhere in the NHL for a last chance for a Stanley Cup. The Athletic’s Jesse Granger suggested a while back that Ovechkin might be a good fit with Vegas in a couple of years, suggesting that his relationship with George McPhee could be enough to bring him over there.

The team needs Vrana to continue his development. A player who struggled and was a big question mark at this time a season ago, Vrana answered a lot of questions last year with a 24-goal, 47-point season. If he can continue that success and be a consistent top-six player, the team will likely have hand him a long-term deal in two years.

Three Years Remaining

D Michal Kempny ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Pheonix Copley ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($750K, UFA)

The team lacks many major contracts here, but if Kempny continues to prove to be a solid defensive presence on Washington’s blueline, the team may have to hand out a significant contract. While the defender will be out for the start of the season and remains an unknown after a season-ending hamstring injury, he has proven to be quite reliable since the Capitals acquired him back at the trade deadline in 2018. Copley, who posted solid numbers as a full-time back-up goalie, likely will hold down his job, but will be challenged by Samsonov, who the team hopes will be their goalie of the future.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D John Carlson ($8MM through 2025-26)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM through 2024-25)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM through 2024-25)
F Tom Wilson ($5.17MM through 2023-24)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM through 2022-23)
F Lars Eller ($3.5MM through 2022-23)
F Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
F Richard Panik ($2.75MM through 2022-23)
D Nick Jensen ($2.5MM through 2022-23)
F Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM through 2022-23)

The bulk of the team’s contracts are here with plenty of money being dedicated to the team between the next four to seven years. Many of these players will likely not be worth the money they are paying for them by that time and much will depend on whether Washington can supplement the team with young, cheap talent. However, the core of the team comes down to Carlson, Kuznetsov, Oshie and Wilson, all of which are currently key to the team’s status as threats to capture another Stanley Cup in the next few years. Carlson, who hits 30 at midseason, put up another phenomenal numbers last year, scoring 13 goals and a career-high 70 points. Kuznetsov had a slight down year, but could be a candidate for a big bounce-back season. Oshie continues to put up solid numbers, 25 goals last season, but will turn 33 during the season and will be 39 before his contract expires, which could go bad quickly. Wilson’s contract doesn’t look nearly as bad, especially after posting career highs in goals (22) and points (40).

Orlov saw his goal-scoring numbers drop, but he still has been a key figure on the team’s defense. Although he saw his ATOI drop by a minute in a half, the team still believes that Orlov is a top-pairing defender. The team hopes that Jensen might provide the same value at a much cheaper price. Jensen, acquired from Detroit and immediately extended for four years, gives Washington even more depth on the team’s blueline. He only averaged 17 minutes in his 20 games with Washington, but he could return to the 20 minutes he was averaging when he was with the Red Wings.

Washington has started to put more effort into bringing in cheaper players, who they think can contribute to the team long-term such as Hagelin and Panik, who were both locked up as the team believes both can contribute as middle-six players for a number of years.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Wilson
Worst Value: Oshie

Looking Ahead

The Capitals are a team that have made it clear years ago that they were going for it. They succeeded finally, winning a Stanley Cup after the 2017-18 season. However, they looked just as formidable last year, despite a first-round exit in a grueling seven-game series against the Carolina Hurricanes. However, expectations continue to be high that this veteran laden club can continue to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. With a number of their players already in their 30’s, the question will end up being how long can they keep this up? The team is capped out and will be for years to come, so they could lose quite a bit of talent over the next few years and with one of the weakest group of prospects in the league, the team will have to be quite clever with the cap to keep the team relevant.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $81,657,500 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Dominik Kahun (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Kahun: $2.85MM

Kahun drew enough interest last summer as a free agent that Chicago ultimately signed him to a contract that first-overall picks get.  While he didn’t come close to reaching that level, he fared pretty well as far as undrafted free agents go as he slotted into a top-six role with the Blackhawks before long.  That good showing helped attract some interest from Pittsburgh as the key piece coming the other way in the Olli Maatta trade.  Barring a big offensive breakout, a short-term deal is likely coming his way but it could be closer to the $2MM range next summer.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Alex Galchenyuk ($4.9MM, UFA)
F Jared McCann ($1.25MM, RFA)
G Matt Murray ($3.75MM, RFA)
D Juuso Riikola ($850K, RFA)
D Justin Schultz ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Dominik Simon ($750K, RFA)

It has not been a good couple of years for Galchenyuk.  After taking what basically amounted to a second bridge deal, he fell out of favor in Montreal a year later and they sent him to Arizona.  His production dipped with the Coyotes last season and they too parted ways with him, making him the centerpiece of the Phil Kessel trade.  There’s certainly cause for optimism that the 25-year-old can rebound in Pittsburgh’s top six and he’ll need to do so if he wants to cash in with a richer deal next summer.  McCann fared well after a midseason trade and he looks like he could be part of the long-term plans.  He’ll be arbitration-eligible next summer and should easily double his current price tag at the very least.  Simon has moved up and down the lineup but figures to be more of a depth piece this season.  His price tag should remain somewhat low although a small raise should be in order.

When healthy, Schultz has been a big part of Pittsburgh’s back end.  However, he has missed 72 games over the last two seasons which is certainly going to affect his value.  While he may not get back to the 50-point mark, he’s a capable offensive defender so there will be some interest but unless he plays a full season, his next contract may wind up coming in a little bit cheaper than this one.  Riikola held his own in a depth role last year and should once again in that type of situation in 2019-20.  That’s a spot that they’ll be looking to fill on the cheap so either he’ll take a similar contract a year from now or he’ll be replaced with someone who will.

Murray is Pittsburgh’s biggest priority to get re-signed.  While he isn’t necessarily a true franchise player between the pipes, he’s still a quality netminder and despite the fact he already has over 200 career NHL appearances under his belt (regular season and playoffs), he’s only 25 so there’s still room for further improvement.  Accordingly, he’s going to be commanding a sizable raise, especially with his arbitration eligibility.  He’s not going to find himself among the top-paid goalies in the league but it’s quite possible that he gets into that next tier in the $6MM or more range.  That’s something GM Jim Rutherford will be factoring in when it comes to any other movement they look to make.

Two Years Remaining

F Zach Aston-Reese ($1MM, RFA)
F Nick Bjugstad ($4.1MM, UFA)
F Teddy Blueger ($750K, RFA)
D Erik Gudbranson ($4MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($700K, UFA)

Bjugstad was the bigger name coming Pittsburgh’s way in their midseason swap with Florida but he didn’t make the type of impact they were hoping for.  His size is an asset as is his ability to play center and the right wing but he has battled injury issues of his own in recent years while his production hasn’t quite lived up to his salary.  Continuing down that path will result in a pay cut down the road.  Aston-Reese provided the Penguins with some nice production from the bottom six in his half-season worth of games which earned him a small raise this summer.  This is another roster spot they’ll need to fill with a low-salaried player two years from now so Aston-Reese will need to move up the depth chart or risk being deemed too pricey.  Bleuger has been productive in the minors but never got an NHL look before last season.  He should be able to lock down a regular spot on the roster now but once again, this is a roster spot they’ll need to fill at a similar price tag down the road.

Gudbranson was brought in as some injury insurance last season and while he has taken some criticism for his play relative to his contract, he did stabilize their third pairing.  That’s a high price tag for someone in that role but it’s reasonable to suggest that they feel better about this contract than what the numbers might suggest.  Ruhwedel is a capable depth piece and his willingness to play for the league minimum helped secure him a multi-year deal.  He won’t get much more than that the next time he’s eligible for free agency though.

Three Years Remaining

G Casey DeSmith ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Kris Letang ($7.25MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Bryan Rust ($3.5MM, UFA)

Malkin has averaged more than a point per game in eight straight years.  Very few players can say that.  Unfortunately for him and the Penguins though, he’s good for a significant injury almost annually; he has managed to play in 70 games just once over the past six years.  That is limiting the return on what would be a reasonable contract for someone whose output extrapolates to around the 90-point range with regularity.  He’ll be 36 for his next contract which makes it hard to believe he’ll get this type of money again.  Rust has had some success in the last couple of years but has also had some quiet stretches as well.  Between that and a lack of cap flexibility, he has been a speculative trade candidate for a while and isn’t likely to get that type of contract again unless he can produce with more consistency.

Letang is a legitimate top-pairing defender and while his defensive play can provide some opportunities for opponents, he makes more than enough plays at the other end to make up for it.  Like quite a few others on this list already though, staying healthy is a major concern.  He’ll be 35 at his next contract and while he should be able to get a multi-year pact despite the injury issues, it probably will be at a cheaper rate.

DeSmith’s first full NHL season was a successful one.  He pushed Murray for playing time and didn’t look out of place when called upon to take over when Murray was injured.  That helped him earn some job security in what could be classified as a below-market deal for backups relative to what others have got in recent years.  If he does get to free agency three years from now, doubling his current AAV is certainly a possibility at the very least.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM through 2024-25)
D Brian Dumoulin ($4.1MM through 2022-23)
F Jake Guentzel ($6MM through 2023-24)
D Jack Johnson ($3.25MM through 2022-23)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM through 2022-23)
F Brandon Tanev ($3.5MM through 2024-25)

Crosby continues to be one of the elite players in the league.  The potential is there for the end of his contract to sting a little bit as he’s now 32 but they’ve received plenty of surplus value on it already.  If he decides to play beyond his current deal though, he may not be able to get his number as a cap hit for a third straight contract.  Guentzel’s contract looks like a bargain already following a 40-goal season.  Lots can change between now and the end of his deal but he’s looking like a candidate for a big raise down the road.  Hornqvist’s contract could be a problem before too long.  His style of play is starting to catch up with him and his production dipped last year.  At this point, he could be considered a possible buyout candidate a couple of years from now.  Tanev had a great season in Winnipeg and managed to draw enough interest to get a shocking six-year deal in July.  Clearly, Rutherford thinks he’ll fit in quite well but there’s definitely some risk here.

Dumoulin has largely flown under the radar but has emerged as a reliable top-four blueliner.  His contract seemed pricey at the beginning but is now pretty good value.  Johnson somehow managed to get five years on his deal last summer which drew the ire of many.  The cap hit isn’t massive which helps a little bit but given his role, it’s still a little expensive.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Marcus Pettersson

Pettersson fared quite well after being acquired from Anaheim and figures to be a part of their plans for a while.  Both sides want to get a multi-year deal done but his agent has stated they won’t agree to a deal until the Penguins make a trade to free up some cap space for him.

Best Value: Guentzel
Worst Value: Hornqvist

Looking Ahead

A trade likely needs to be made to fit Pettersson in and even with that, they’ll still be up against the cap this season.  Murray’s raise will add another big-ticket deal to their books while they’ll probably want to keep Galchenyuk and Schultz as well.  Further down the road, there are some expensive contracts that aren’t particularly team-friendly.  The Penguins have navigated being tight to the cap for a while now and that’s not going to change anytime soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $68,082,579 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Carter Hart (two years, $731K)
F Oskar Lindblom (one year, $925K)
D Philippe Myers (one year, $679K)
F Nolan Patrick (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses:

Hart: $132.5K
Lindblom: $212.5K
Patrick: $2.65MM

Patrick was considered the top prospect of the 2017 draft class for most of that season before ultimately going second overall.  His sophomore year largely mirrored his rookie campaign which was okay but not quite up to the expectations of someone going that high.  He’s likely going to spend a lot of time on the third line again in 2019-20 which makes him a good candidate for a short-term second contract instead of the long-term pact many top picks get.  Lindblom quietly put up 17 goals last season despite not averaging 14 minutes per night with most of those coming at even strength.  If he can get to the 20-goal mark, he could jump into the $2.5MM or more range on a short-term pact next summer.

Myers has been a nice find as an undrafted free agent and got his first NHL action last season.  He has the skill set to be a regular which is why he’s mentioned here but it’s also possible that his waiver exemption will work against him and he’ll find himself in Lehigh Valley again.  On the surface, a bridge deal is probably on the horizon for him.

Hart could be the legitimate starting goaltender that the Flyers have been coveting for a long time.  He didn’t look out of place in his first NHL action last season and the starting job is his to run with.  If he plays 50 or more games in each of the next two years, he could increase his salary tenfold with a long-term deal.  There is a lot of pressure on his shoulders already.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Justin Braun ($3.8MM, UFA)
G Brian Elliott ($2MM, UFA)
D Robert Hagg ($1.15MM, RFA)

Braun was brought in to help stabilize the back end and eat some minutes which is something he should be able to do.  While he hasn’t been a big point producer over the years, he has logged at least 20 minutes a night in six straight seasons.  That will garner some interest on the open market but because of the limited offensive upside and age (32), his next contract shouldn’t cost much more than this one.  Hagg was a regular last season, providing plenty of physicality from the third pairing.  However, with their moves this summer, he’s someone that probably won’t be seeing his role increase much.  He’s already on his bridge deal but it’d be tough to see either side want to commit to a long-term pact next summer if this winds up happening.

Elliott isn’t the number one netminder anymore but he’s a good fit for the veteran mentor role that can take a bigger workload if needed.  For him, simply staying healthy is the biggest challenge.  That will ultimately determine if he can get a multi-year deal and a raise as a 35-plus player next summer or if he’ll be going year-to-year from here on out.

Two Years Remaining

F Scott Laughton ($2.3MM, UFA)
D Samuel Morin ($700K, RFA)
D Matt Niskanen ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($1.6MM, UFA)
D Travis Sanheim ($3.25MM, RFA)

Laughton made the most of his extra ice time last season to reach a new career-high in points (32).  However, there may not be a lot of offensive progression left (especially with their depth down the middle) which will limit his earning upside.  Third line pivots that can win draws at an above-average rate like he does will still be coveted two years from now but a big raise probably isn’t in his future.  Instead, he’ll probably have to settle for a small increase.  Raffl wasn’t able to get even that as he took more than a 30% pay cut to stay with the Flyers.  He’s pegged to be a depth winger once again which means he’s probably looking at another cut two years from now.

Sanheim’s first full NHL season was a strong one as he established himself as a core piece for the long-term.  However, GM Chuck Fletcher opted to go for a bridge contract back in June, presumably to free up some funds for their other acquisitions as well as the players that still need new deals.  It will cost a lot more to sign him two summers from now though, especially with arbitration rights.  Niskanen’s acquisition was a little puzzling given that his offensive output has dipped in recent years which makes his deal a bit expensive.  (And they retained salary on the player going the other way.)  However, the Flyers believe he can rebound and, like Braun, log some heavy minutes.  That said, his next deal won’t come close to this one.  Morin missed most of last season with a knee injury, one that the team knew about when they gave him this contract.  However, the 24-year-old gets to benefit from some extra security, albeit at a league-minimum rate.  He’ll push to hold down a full-time spot on the roster and is waiver-eligible; how he fares in accomplishing that role will go a long way towards determining his next contract.

Three Years Remaining

F Sean Couturier ($4.33MM, UFA)
F Claude Giroux ($8.275MM, UFA)

Two years ago, Giroux was struggling and his deal looked like a big overpayment.  However, a simple position change to the wing proved to be the remedy as he put up 102 points in 2017-18 and followed that up with 85 last season.  That’s a pretty good return on their biggest contract and if he can maintain that level of production, he could still have one sizable payday left.  Couturier has also gone from an underachiever two years ago to a top-line center that’s making what some third line pivots make.  He could be looking at doubling his current AAV three years from now as things stand.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Shayne Gostisbehere ($4.5MM through 2023-24)
F Kevin Hayes ($7.143MM through 2025-26)
F James van Riemsdyk ($7MM through 2023-24)
F Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM through 2024-25)

While Voracek has had one big season, it’s safe to say that Philadelphia hasn’t got quite the bang for their buck when they signed him back in 2015.  Since then, he has surpassed the 70-point mark only once and has averaged 61 points per season in the other three years.  That’s not a terrible output by any stretch but for someone that was made one of the higher-paid wingers in the league at the time, it’s fair to say he has underachieved a little bit.  With five years left and a deal that is a little bit buyout-prohibitive given the signing bonus structure, this is one that could sting in a few years.

Hayes is coming off a career year offensively but it was also the first time that he had at least 50 points in a season which makes this deal carry some risk.  He’s a good fit between Couturier on the top line and Patrick on the third for now but when Patrick eventually moves up, he’ll either become an expensive winger or a high-priced bottom six option.  The acquisition will certainly help them a lot in the near future but there should be concerns about the long-term with this one as well.  Van Riemsdyk’s deal was considered to be a bit of an overpay last summer but at the same time, it came with less term than many expected so the trade-off is reasonable.  Injuries prevented him from getting back to the 30-goal mark, a target he’ll need to reach for this one to not be considered a bad contract as well.

Gostisbehere is coming off a tough year offensively, relatively speaking.  37 points is still pretty good but it’s well off the 65 he had the year before.  As a result, he has been in trade speculation this offseason but they’d be selling low if they moved him now.  His deal is also still one of the better bargains on the roster as a top-four defender that’s capable of putting up points would cost a lot more on the open market.

Buyouts

G Ilya Bryzgalov ($1.643MM through 2026-27, cap-exempt as a post-CBA compliance buyout)
D Andrew MacDonald ($1.167MM in 2019-20, $1.917MM in 2020-21)
D David Schlemko ($900K in 2019-20, $600K in 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Radko Gudas ($1.005MM in 2019-20)

Still To Sign

F Travis Konecny
D Ivan Provorov

Konecny didn’t have a big jump in production last season but hit 24 goals for the second straight year which certainly helps his case.  Recent speculation has his price tag in the $4MM range but that would likely be for a shorter-term pact.

As for Provorov, his 2018-19 campaign was one to forget.  While he logged over 25 minutes a night, his effectiveness dropped as did his output.  As a result, instead of being a lock for a long-term contract, a bridge deal is looking like the likeliest outcome with something in the $5MM range being floated as a potential price point.

Best Value: Couturier
Worst Value: Hayes

Looking Ahead

While the Flyers have lots of cap space now, that will change once Konecny and Provorov sign although they should still have some wiggle room for in-season moves.  That’s not likely to be the case for long though.  Their young core players are all on shorter-term deals (or soon will be) and while that gives them flexibility now, it will hurt them later.  That will be happening at the time where some of the players on long-term contracts will likely start to decline as well.  Rough times will be on the horizon but that’s just par for the course for a team that not that long ago was basically right against the Upper Limit on a seemingly annual basis.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $80,489,799 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kaapo Kakko (three years, $925K)
F Vitali Kravtsov (three years, $925K)
D Adam Fox (three years, $925K)
G Igor Shesterkin (two years, $925K)
D Yegor Rykov (two years, $925K)
F Filip Chytil (two years, $894K)
F Lias Andersson (two years, $894K)
F Brett Howden (two years, $863K)
D Libor Hajek (two years, $833K)
G Alexandar Georgiev (one year, $792K)

Potential Bonuses:

Shesterkin: $2.85MM
Kakko: $2.65MM
Kravtsov: $850K
Fox: $850K
Andersson: $850K
Chytil: $350K
Georgiev: $133K

The Rangers are in a fantastic position to be successful for the next several years as the team hit the jackpot in the draft and with being able to sign several of their top prospects this summer. Obviously, the most attractive of the bunch will be Kakko, the team’s second-overall pick in this year’s draft, who is expected to jump into the Rangers’ top-six immediately and is supposed to be more NHL-ready than any of the 2019 lottery picks. The 18-year-old scored 22 goals last year in the Liiga, playing alongside adults and is believed to be ready. On the other hand, the team also signed their ninth-overall pick in 2018, Vitali Kravtsov, who also spent last season playing with adults as he tallied eight goals in 50 games in the KHL. While he is expected to begin play with the Rangers next season, he may be penciled into more of a third-line role to begin with.

New York also brought in a pair of quality defenseman, which included trading for Fox, who forced a trade out of Carolina to get to the Rangers. The team then signed him to a three-year entry-level contract, prying him away from a senior season at Harvard. Fox, had a monster year as a blueliner, posting nine goals and 48 points in 33 games for the Crimson and looks ready to step into their blueline immediately. The team also managed to sign Rykov, their fifth-round pick from 2016, who has now played three full seasons in the KHL and could be ready to step in, although with the depth on their blueline, Rykov could start the season in the AHL.

On top of all that, the Rangers also managed to nab a stud goaltending prospect as well, signing Shestorkin, who many wondered whether he would ever come over to North America. At 23 years, old, Shesterkin has been a starter in the KHL for three straight years, putting up amazing numbers. Last season in 28 games, he posted a 1.11 GAA and a .953 save percentage. With the team’s goaltending situation likely looking different in the next few years, Shesterkin is the most likely heir apparent on the team. One player who could stand in his way is Georgiev, who only seems to have gotten better in the last year. While his overall numbers weren’t that impressive (33 games, 2.91 GAA, .914 save percentage), it did improve over the course of the year as the 23-year-old posted a 2.49 GAA and a .927 save percentage in 17 appearances after the all-star break, suggesting he could also find himself as the future.

The team also has to find out about what it has in both Chytil and Andersson. Both drafted in the first-round back in 2017, the two centers haven’t proven that they are part of their future yet. Chytil showed some success last year, scoring 11 goals and 23 points in 75 games, while Andersson got into 42 games last year, but only scored two goals and six points. Both must show they are ready to take that next step or they could find themselves replaced down the road. The team also has Howden, who appeared in 66 games last season and also must prove he can take on a bigger role. He tallied six goals and 23 points last year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Chris Kreider ($4.63MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Strome ($3.1MM, RFA)
F Matt Beleskey ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Jesper Fast ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Greg McKegg ($750K, UFA)
F Boo Nieves ($700K, UFA)

The most intriguing story that likely will go on all season is what will the Rangers do with Kreider. The 28-year-old winger posted 28 goals and 52 points last season, but after the team shelled out quite a bit of money this offseason for other key pieces to their franchise, there are a number of questions whether the team can now afford to keep Kreider, who becomes a free-agent this summer. While it’s still possible that New York could trade Kreider before the season starts, it’s possible the team will keep the winger to bolster their ever improving top-six and deal with his contract later or potentially move him at the trade deadline. The problem is that if the Rangers become playoff relevant next season, the team might have a difficult time moving out Kreider and then might decide to hold onto him instead, potentially losing him for nothing on July 1.

Many players will have to prove their value to get a new contract. Namestnikov, who performed well with the Lightning, has been a disappointing since coming over in the Ryan McDonagh trade. The winger scored 22 goals in 2017-18, but still struggled after the trade and then managed to get 11 goals last year. With a $4MM contract, the team could use some cap relief, but have failed to find a taker for the 26-year-old. Strome will be a restricted free agent still after next season, but if he can duplicate what he did with New York last year, he likely could have a future with the team. Despite starting the first 19 games with Edmonton with just one goal, the trade to New York got him going as he scored 18 goals in 63 games after that.

Fast, Beleskey, Nieves and McKegg all are now depth options who will have to fight to win bottom-line depth and prove their value for a potential new contract.

Two Years Remaining

G Henrik Lundqvist ($8.5MM, UFA)
D Marc Staal ($5.7MM, UFA)
D Brendan Smith ($4.35MM, UFA)
F Pavel Buchnevich ($3.25MM, RFA)

The team still has two more years remaining with Lundqvist at a high AAV, but the team has also seen the 37-year-old’s play continue to decline. While his GAA has dropped consistently in the last few years, it was his save percentage that dropped to a .907 save percentage, the lowest mark of his career. Much of that could have a lot to do with the Rangers’ rebuilding process this year. The team has to hope that if they can limit his starts (he played in 53 games last season) and with the improvement of both the offense and defense this season, Lundqvist should be able to bounce back. With the addition of Shesterkin and development of Georgiev, that is quite possible to pull back his starts into the 40-range.

The team is stuck with a pair of veterans in Staal and Smith. Both were discussed as potential buyout options this summer, but it was decided that neither move would have helped the team in the long-term. Staal continues to be a solid, but unspectacular blueliner and should continue in that role, while Smith will have to prove he belongs on the team and could find himself buried in the AHL as he was in the 2017-18 season due to his struggles.

The team has hopes that Buchnevich will continue to progress this season. He has gotten better each season in the league and is currently on a bridge-deal to prove his value. With 21 goals and 38 points last season, Buchnevich could be a key component of the Rangers future, especially if he can take his game up a notch next year. Ultimately, the 24-year-old is playing for a big contract in two years.

Three Years Remaining

F Mika Zibanejad ($5.35MM, UFA)

The Rangers finally got what they wanted last season when Zibanejad took that next step and proved to be the No. 1 center the team has been waiting for for years. The 26-year-old put up a career-high 30 goals, but more importantly saw his points improve from 47 points in 2017-18 to 74 points last year. With that next step taken, the Rangers have now added the firepower next to him to give the team one of the top lines in the league with Zibanejad as the centerpiece. The Rangers signed him to a five-year deal back in 2017 when he tallied just 14 goals and 37 points in 56 games, gambling on his potential, which now looks like quite a steal as the team still has three more years of a No. 1 center for a very reasonable price.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Artemi Panarin ($11.64MM through 2025-26)
D Jacob Trouba ($8MM through 2025-26)
D Brady Skjei ($5.25MM through 2023-24)

The Rangers took the next step in their rebuilding project this summer when they spent $19.64MM AAV on two key players. They had to go higher than they wanted to for Panarin, but the Rangers inevitably sealed the deal and locked him up for the next seven years, giving them one of the best left wings in the game and another key piece to turning the franchise around. With Panarin and Zibanejad already locked into the first line, the franchise has a solid core to start the season. Who will play on the right side will be determined at training camp. The 27-year-old Panarin put up impressive numbers last season, scoring 27 goals and adding a career-high 87 points last season. The team also went out and traded for Trouba, who for years had made it clear he didn’t want to be in Winnipeg. Once the Rangers acquired him, it took a little time, but they were able to extend him for seven more years. The pressure will be on Trouba, who now has everything he wants, which includes becoming the team’s No. 1 defenseman. He will have to prove that he is up to it in New York.

As for Skjei, the defenseman rebounded last year with a stronger season after struggling in 2017-18. Despite seeing his offensive numbers drop from 39 points to 25 and finishing 2017-18 with a minus-27 rating from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign, the Rangers still signed Skjei to a six-year, $31.5MM deal. While his points total didn’t change at all, his plus/minus did improve as he finished with just a minus-four rating last season. The hope is that his development will continue and he will remain a key top-four option for New York for years.

Buyouts

D Kevin Shattenkirk ($1.48MM in 2019-20; $6.08 in 2020-21; $1.43MM in 2021-22 & 2022-23)
D Dan Girardi ($3.61MM in 2018-19; $1.11MM from 2019-20 to 2022-23)
F Ryan Spooner ($300K through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Brendan Lemieux
D Anthony DeAngelo

The cap situation will only get more challenging. Despite the Shattenkirk buyout, the team will have to pay out $6.08MM for him next season, which will make it difficult to continue to upgrade the team, another reason why Kreider might be difficult to re-sign.

However, the team does still need to sign two younger restricted free agents in Lemieux and DeAngelo. The team likes Lemieux’s irritating style of play and hope he can continue to improve in a bottom-six role with the team. DeAngelo also seems to have turned the corner and looks to be a lock on the team’s defense after several years of waiting on his skills to come around. With the cap struggles it’s dealing with this year, the team is still holding out hope that both players will eventually accept their qualifying offers to save the team money, while both players would prefer to get a little more.

Best Value: Zibanejad
Worst Value: Smith

Looking Ahead

The Rangers have pulled off an impressive rebuilding campaign that started in February of 2018 and in just a year in a half, the team has managed to bring in a number of top players and talent to give the team the faces of the franchise it needs to be competitive for many years into the future. With the impressive array of prospects it has managed to sign this offseason, the team has a bright future and a present that could begin as early as this year with Panarin and Trouba now under contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $74,746,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Oliver Wahlstrom (three years, $925K)
D Sebastian Aho (one year, $925K)
D Noah Dobson (three years, $894K)
F Mathew Barzal (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:

Wahlstrom: $538K
Dobson: $538K
Barzal: $400K
Aho: $100K

Barzal will be an interesting case as the young center saw his numbers drop off after an amazing rookie campaign as the 22-year-old got more attention from top defenders without John Tavares to protect him. While his goals only dropped by four (18) last year, he saw his assist numbers slip from 63 to 44. However, many people feel that Barzal should take that next step and establish himself as top-line center. While the Islanders can only hope that this will happen, it could also prove to be costly for New York as Barzal will be wrapping up the final year of his entry-level contract and could be in line for a major deal as the youngster is likely keeping a close eye on all the unsigned restricted free-agents on the market currently.

The Islanders have quite a bit of talent in the system and several of their top picks from 2018 could be ready to contribute this season. Wahlstrom, the 11th-overall pick, played well in his one season at Boston College, but looked even more impressive in a short showcase with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL. He played five regular season games, scoring two goals, but added another two goals and four points in five playoff games. Dobson, the team’s 12th-overall pick last season, could be ready to take a key spot in the Islanders defense.

While the defense could add Dobson this season, another addition could be Toews who looks to be ready for an increased role with the Islanders. The 25-year-old put up 18 points in 48 games last season and looks ready to contribute.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Thomas Greiss ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($2MM, RFA)
F Derick Brassard ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Tom Kuhnhackl ($850K, UFA)
D Devon Toews ($700K, RFA)

While Robin Lehner received all the attention for his stellar play in goal, Islanders’ fans were just as pleased with the play of Greiss, who just a couple of years ago was considered to have an untradeable contract. However, no one is complaining after Greiss put up impressive numbers last year. The 33-year-old had a .927 save percentage and a 2.28 GAA in 43 appearances and should be a key piece for New York in his final year, although with several prospects getting closer to being NHL ready, this is likely to be his last year with the Islanders.

The 24-year-old Pulock continued to improve his game, especially offensively. He finished the season with nine goals and 37 assists, which is impressive considering the team’s offense dropped off quite a bit since the 2017-18 season as the defenseman continues to work on his defensive game. He could be prime for another big contract if he can take his game to another level.

Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello is a big believer in a veteran bottom-six and has done well with both Martin and Kuhnhackl as well as Brassard, who the team signed recently and could always get a new contract if they continue to perform well.

Two Years Remaining

F Casey Cizikas ($3.35MM, UFA)
D Adam Pelech ($1.6MM, UFA)
F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA)
F Tanner Fritz ($700K, UFA)

The 28-year-old Cizikas had a breakout season last year. Not only did he finally break the double-digit barrier, he actually reached 20 goals. The hope is that Cizikas can repeat that success as he is expected to continue playing on the team’s impressive fourth line. The team also has hopes that Dal Colle can win a regular spot. The 23-year old got a 27 game trial, scoring three goals and seven points last season.

The defensive minded Pelech has been a solid player for the Islanders and is quite a bargain at $1.6MM. Perhaps the top left-handed defenseman, he has received solid minutes and should continue to get good minutes this season. The team

Three Years Remaining

D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM, UFA)

At age 35, the team will be paying for Boychuk’s late years and there does seem to be a decline in his play as both his ATOI and his points dropped. On the positive, his 74 games played is the most he’s played since he was with the Bruins back in 2013-14. However, he saw his minutes drop by almost two per game and picked up just 19 points last season. That could mean a reduced role for the veteran this season as he could slide outside the top four and move into a bottom-pairing role. The 28-year-old Leddy, however, continues to play well as he broke the 20-minute mark for the fifth-straight season. His offense, however, took a hit as he only tallied 26 points after three straight 40-point seasons, but with a defense-first philosophy, that might not be surprising. The team also has high hopes that Hickey, who missed quite a bit of time due to an upper-body injury, will stay healthy this season. The two-way blueliner will be a key addition for the team, but he will have to earn his playing time, especially if Dobson makes the roster out of training camp.

With Cizikas and Martin, Clutterbuck gives the Islanders a physical and offensive fourth-line that is one of the best in the league and the 31-year-old has been putting up 200-plus hits 10 of the last 11 years and is expected to continue that success. Komarov also has put up big hits (203), giving the team quite a bit of physicality for the next few years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Anders Lee ($7MM through 2025-26)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM through 2024-25)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM through 2023-24)
F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM through 2022-23)
F Josh Bailey ($5MM through 2023-24)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM through 2022-23)

Lamoriello was busy this offseason, signing four of these long-term deals this summer. The team was hoping to steal Artemi Panarin from the New York Rangers at the last minute, but when that fell through, the team immediately locked up their captain to a seven-year deal. Lee posted solid numbers, scoring 28 goals and 51 points, while showing off a plus-20 rating on the ice. Nelson, who many believed was the most likely to bolt the Islanders, surprised many by signing a six-year deal at $6MM after career-high 53 points and netted four goals in eight playoff games last year. Eberle was another key signing as the team committed five years and $5.5MM per season to him despite a down year where he had just 37 points, one of the lowest numbers of his career. However, a strong playoff performance might have been enough to prove his worth after he tallied four goals and nine points in eight playoff games.

The team made a shocking move this offseason when they opted not to keep the fan-favorite Lehner and instead signed Russian goaltender Semyon Varlamov away from Colorado. One reason for that was because the team still hopes to convince top Russian goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin to come to the U.S., which might be easier with Lehner out of the way and a veteran countryman in place to ease him into the NHL. However, Varlamov has the potential to be quite successful with the Islanders’ defensive system. He has been quite successful over the years, but has had to deal with many injuries as well.

Bailey may be one of the better deals the teams has. The pass-first winger put up another solid season, putting up 16 goals and 56 points and added four goals in the playoffs and is a key player on the team’s top-six. On the other hand, Ladd may have the contract that looks the worst on the team. The 33-year-old veteran continues to deal with injury issues. This time, the veteran only appeared in 26 games, putting up just three goals for the team. He put up a 23-goal season back in the 2016-17 season, but the team rewarded him with a seven-year, $38.5MM deal, which so far looks like a disaster after he has scored just 15 goals in two seasons and isn’t likely to get the minutes he needs to make that deal look decent.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Anthony Beauvillier

This will be a key year for Beauvillier once he signs. A 2015 first-round pick, the 22-year-old winger struggled in a top-six role last year, putting up 18 goals and 10 assists and he must show that he can take his game to another level. He likely will command some kind of bridge deal to prove his value to the franchise as he hasn’t necessarily shown enough to warrant a long-term deal. However, if he can’t show that he belongs on the top-six, he could find himself falling to the third line soon.

Best Value: Bailey
Worst Value: Ladd

Looking Ahead

The Islanders put all their eggs in one basket this summer. Lamoriello had all the cap space he needed to shape the franchise any way he wanted, but in the end, he brought back almost all of his key unrestricted free agents and has committed to keep his team. The team broke all expectations last season as few expected the team to even make the playoffs, let alone sweep their first-round opponent. Regardless, the belief that under head coach Barry Trotz, the team will continue to get better and battle for a Stanley Cup for the next few years. The team has committed to its core and now have to hope that their farm system can continue to develop their young players and add to the Islanders team for the next few years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $72,788,333 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mackenzie Blackwood (one year, $698K)
F Jesper Bratt (one year, $749K)
F Nico Hischier (one year, $925K)
F Jack Hughes (three years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses:

Blackwood: $132.5K
Hischier: $2.85MM
Hughes: $2.85MM

Hischier has yet to emerge as a legitimate top line star but there is certainly cause for optimism that he will take a step forward this season.  He may not be able to get to the top of the RFA class a season from now but a long-term pact would undoubtedly make him one of the highest-paid players on the team.  It’s too early to project what a second contract for Hughes would look like but he’s expected to become a star in short order so his next deal will likely be quite an expensive one.  Bratt very quietly nearly duplicated his rookie season production despite playing in 21 fewer games.  A long-term deal isn’t likely given who else they need to sign to big-ticket contracts but a decent season from him could have a bridge pact in the $2.5MM or more range.

Blackwood didn’t have a great year in the minors but more than held his own in his first action at the NHL level.  He’ll push for more minutes than a typical backup may get but he’s a good candidate for a bridge contract next summer.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Andy Greene ($5MM, UFA)
F Taylor Hall ($6MM, UFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, RFA)
D Mirco Mueller ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Kevin Rooney ($700K, UFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($5MM, UFA)
D Sami Vatanen ($4.875MM, UFA)

With all due respect to Hischier, Hall is far and away GM Ray Shero’s top priority when it comes to players on expiring contracts.  Last season didn’t go as well as his Hart Trophy campaign but he still averaged over a point per game in an injury-riddled campaign.  He is their franchise player and it’s no coincidence that the team has been aggressive this summer in an effort to try to help entice him to stay.  No matter what, it will take a lot more than that alone to get him to sign on the dotted line.  Artemi Panarin set a new benchmark for wingers earlier this summer when he signed for over $11.6MM per season and Hall could certainly command a similar price tag.  The good news for the Devils is that not a lot of teams will be able to afford that and they’ll be one of the teams that can.

Simmonds signed what would appear to be an inflated contract based on his performance last season but the one-year term makes it a worthwhile gamble for both sides.  If he rebounds, he’ll position himself better for a multi-year deal a year from now and the Devils will get a good return on their investment.  If not, it’s an expiring contract whose money can be directed towards Hall and Hischier.  Hayden was brought in from Chicago this summer with the hope that he can push for a fourth line role which is similar to Rooney’s situation.  Neither will likely land much bigger deals a year from now.

Vatanen hasn’t really been able to ascend to a top role like they were hoping when they got him but he’s still a strong presence in their top four.  His production has also dipped in recent years which won’t help his value; instead of being a player that could plausibly eclipse the $6MM mark, he’s probably going to check in a little lower than barring a big uptick in points.  Greene has been a fixture with New Jersey for more than a decade but he’s clearly on the back nine of his career.  Assuming he hovers around the 20-minute mark once again, he could still command a two-year deal (despite being in a 35-plus situation) but it will have to come with some sort of small pay cut.  Mueller took some strides towards establishing himself as a regular last season but will still be in a battle for playing time.  How he fares will determine if a small raise is on the horizon or a non-tender because of his salary arbitration eligibility.

Two Years Remaining

D Connor Carrick ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Blake Coleman ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Nikita Gusev ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Kyle Palmieri ($4.65MM, UFA)
F Travis Zajac ($5.75MM, UFA)

Palmieri doesn’t get a lot of attention but with four straight seasons of at least 24 goals, that will change when he hits the open market at 30. While teams are more hesitant to spend big on players that age, he should still easily be able to hit the $6MM mark or more depending on the term.  Zajac saw his production jump back into the mid-40’s after an off year in 2017-18 but overall, he’s a better fit on the third line than somewhere in the top six which makes this deal on the pricey side.  Gusev is going to be an interesting one to follow.  He was a terrific player in the KHL but this will be his first NHL action.  As a result, this could wind up being a bargain, a disaster, or pretty much anything in between.  Coleman has already made his three-year bridge deal a team-friendly one after a career-best 22 goals.  He’s also a very physical player and power forwards with a scoring touch tend to get big contracts so he could be looking at a good raise two years from now.  Something similar to what Micheal Ferland got (four years at $3.5MM per year) is plausible.

Carrick got the opportunity to play big minutes down the stretch after being acquired and made the most of it.  It’s likely he’ll have a lesser role this season but even if he can hold down a spot on the third pairing, they should get a reasonable return on this deal.

Three Years Remaining

D Will Butcher ($3.733MM, UFA)
G Cory Schneider ($6MM, UFA)
D P.K. Subban ($9MM, UFA)
F Miles Wood ($2.75MM, RFA)

Wood’s production dipped a bit last season despite a small uptick in ice time.  At 23, it’s not a significant concern at this point but given the extra depth the team now has, his deal could become a bit expensive if he doesn’t get back to his 2017-18 level.

Subban was brought in as a salary cap dump from Nashville but he instantly becomes New Jersey’s top defender.  He’s probably not a true number one option but he’s the closest they’ve had in a while.  His price tag is on the expensive side (it was the richest deal for a blueliner until this coming season) but it’s a justifiable price to pay to give their back end a boost.  Butcher’s production dropped from 41 to 30 points last season and in the process, he may have cost himself a shot at a long-term deal.  Instead, the two sides went with a short-term pact.  If Butcher can establish himself as a consistent offensive threat, this could be a bargain for the Devils while paving the way for a much bigger payday three years from now.

Schneider is coming off a rocky season.  Thanks to struggles and hip issues, he went a year without a win and his contract was looking like a huge anchor.  However, he showed signs of improvements down the stretch and fared well at the World Championships which should give him another chance to be the starter next season.  His deal isn’t the bargain it was when he was among the top goalies in the league not long ago but they can still get some value from it now.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Damon Severson ($4.167MM through 2022-23)

This deal raised some eyebrows when it was signed a couple of years ago but Severson’s performance last year makes it look like a team-friendly pact now.  He had a career season offensively with 39 points while logging over 22 minutes a night.  That type of production is worth a lot more on the open market than what he’s getting.

Buyouts

F Mike Cammalleri ($1.667MM through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

F Ilya Kovalchuk ($250K through 2024-25)

Still To Sign

F Pavel Zacha

Zacha continues to be somewhat of an enigma.  The production has been there in spurts but without much consistency.  That makes him a prime candidate for a one-year deal this summer, especially since he’ll have arbitration eligibility next offseason.  At this stage, he probably won’t get too much more than his qualifying offer which was just over $874K.

Best Value: Hall
Worst Value: Zajac

Looking Ahead

Even with their offseason spending, the Devils have plenty of salary cap flexibility for the upcoming season.  They may not be able to say that for 2020-21, however.  Hischier’s next deal will be a big increase on his current cap hit while Hall, if they can re-sign him, will command a big raise.

Looking at the big picture, Shero has the team well-positioned with a lack of long-term commitments that should allow them to lock up their core youngsters without much concern and still leave some wiggle room.  That’s a pretty good spot to be in as long as they can put that flexibility to good use, something they were able to do this summer but didn’t accomplish in the previous few offseasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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