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Snapshots: Three Stars, Draft Rankings, McKee

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The NHL has released their Three Stars for last week and once again a member of the Boston Bruins “Perfection Line” has taken the top spot. Brad Marchand is the first star after a seven-point week, taking him to 39 on the season in just 23 games. Marchand also leads the NHL in +/- with a +17 rating and looks like he could be in legitimate contention for the Hart Trophy this season.

Second and third place go to Connor McDavid and Brock Nelson respectively after each posted four-goal weeks. While Nelson doesn’t get quite the same press as a player like McDavid, he has still been quite effective for the New York Islanders this season with 19 points in 21 games including four game-winning goals.

  • Alexis Lafreniere may be the presumptive first-overall pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, but Craig Button of TSN argues that Quinton Byfield and Yaroslav Askarov should both be considered contenders for the spot. Button contends that if a team really values the center position Byfield should be the pick, going so far as to say he “can’t imagine a scenario” where a center-needy team doesn’t go with the 6’4″ pivot. Askarov meanwhile is the best goaltending draft prospect since Carey Price according to Button.
  • The Kitchener Rangers have fired head coach and former NHL defenseman Jay McKee, naming general manager Mike McKenzie the interim bench boss. McKee, who played over 800 games in the NHL, took over as head coach of the OHL’s Rangers in 2016 and took them to the playoffs in three consecutive seasons.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $74,746,666 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Oliver Wahlstrom (three years, $925K)
D Sebastian Aho (one year, $925K)
D Noah Dobson (three years, $894K)
F Mathew Barzal (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:

Wahlstrom: $538K
Dobson: $538K
Barzal: $400K
Aho: $100K

Barzal will be an interesting case as the young center saw his numbers drop off after an amazing rookie campaign as the 22-year-old got more attention from top defenders without John Tavares to protect him. While his goals only dropped by four (18) last year, he saw his assist numbers slip from 63 to 44. However, many people feel that Barzal should take that next step and establish himself as top-line center. While the Islanders can only hope that this will happen, it could also prove to be costly for New York as Barzal will be wrapping up the final year of his entry-level contract and could be in line for a major deal as the youngster is likely keeping a close eye on all the unsigned restricted free-agents on the market currently.

The Islanders have quite a bit of talent in the system and several of their top picks from 2018 could be ready to contribute this season. Wahlstrom, the 11th-overall pick, played well in his one season at Boston College, but looked even more impressive in a short showcase with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL. He played five regular season games, scoring two goals, but added another two goals and four points in five playoff games. Dobson, the team’s 12th-overall pick last season, could be ready to take a key spot in the Islanders defense.

While the defense could add Dobson this season, another addition could be Toews who looks to be ready for an increased role with the Islanders. The 25-year-old put up 18 points in 48 games last season and looks ready to contribute.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Thomas Greiss ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($2MM, RFA)
F Derick Brassard ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Tom Kuhnhackl ($850K, UFA)
D Devon Toews ($700K, RFA)

While Robin Lehner received all the attention for his stellar play in goal, Islanders’ fans were just as pleased with the play of Greiss, who just a couple of years ago was considered to have an untradeable contract. However, no one is complaining after Greiss put up impressive numbers last year. The 33-year-old had a .927 save percentage and a 2.28 GAA in 43 appearances and should be a key piece for New York in his final year, although with several prospects getting closer to being NHL ready, this is likely to be his last year with the Islanders.

The 24-year-old Pulock continued to improve his game, especially offensively. He finished the season with nine goals and 37 assists, which is impressive considering the team’s offense dropped off quite a bit since the 2017-18 season as the defenseman continues to work on his defensive game. He could be prime for another big contract if he can take his game to another level.

Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello is a big believer in a veteran bottom-six and has done well with both Martin and Kuhnhackl as well as Brassard, who the team signed recently and could always get a new contract if they continue to perform well.

Two Years Remaining

F Casey Cizikas ($3.35MM, UFA)
D Adam Pelech ($1.6MM, UFA)
F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA)
F Tanner Fritz ($700K, UFA)

The 28-year-old Cizikas had a breakout season last year. Not only did he finally break the double-digit barrier, he actually reached 20 goals. The hope is that Cizikas can repeat that success as he is expected to continue playing on the team’s impressive fourth line. The team also has hopes that Dal Colle can win a regular spot. The 23-year old got a 27 game trial, scoring three goals and seven points last season.

The defensive minded Pelech has been a solid player for the Islanders and is quite a bargain at $1.6MM. Perhaps the top left-handed defenseman, he has received solid minutes and should continue to get good minutes this season. The team

Three Years Remaining

D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM, UFA)

At age 35, the team will be paying for Boychuk’s late years and there does seem to be a decline in his play as both his ATOI and his points dropped. On the positive, his 74 games played is the most he’s played since he was with the Bruins back in 2013-14. However, he saw his minutes drop by almost two per game and picked up just 19 points last season. That could mean a reduced role for the veteran this season as he could slide outside the top four and move into a bottom-pairing role. The 28-year-old Leddy, however, continues to play well as he broke the 20-minute mark for the fifth-straight season. His offense, however, took a hit as he only tallied 26 points after three straight 40-point seasons, but with a defense-first philosophy, that might not be surprising. The team also has high hopes that Hickey, who missed quite a bit of time due to an upper-body injury, will stay healthy this season. The two-way blueliner will be a key addition for the team, but he will have to earn his playing time, especially if Dobson makes the roster out of training camp.

With Cizikas and Martin, Clutterbuck gives the Islanders a physical and offensive fourth-line that is one of the best in the league and the 31-year-old has been putting up 200-plus hits 10 of the last 11 years and is expected to continue that success. Komarov also has put up big hits (203), giving the team quite a bit of physicality for the next few years.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Anders Lee ($7MM through 2025-26)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM through 2024-25)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM through 2023-24)
F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM through 2022-23)
F Josh Bailey ($5MM through 2023-24)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM through 2022-23)

Lamoriello was busy this offseason, signing four of these long-term deals this summer. The team was hoping to steal Artemi Panarin from the New York Rangers at the last minute, but when that fell through, the team immediately locked up their captain to a seven-year deal. Lee posted solid numbers, scoring 28 goals and 51 points, while showing off a plus-20 rating on the ice. Nelson, who many believed was the most likely to bolt the Islanders, surprised many by signing a six-year deal at $6MM after career-high 53 points and netted four goals in eight playoff games last year. Eberle was another key signing as the team committed five years and $5.5MM per season to him despite a down year where he had just 37 points, one of the lowest numbers of his career. However, a strong playoff performance might have been enough to prove his worth after he tallied four goals and nine points in eight playoff games.

The team made a shocking move this offseason when they opted not to keep the fan-favorite Lehner and instead signed Russian goaltender Semyon Varlamov away from Colorado. One reason for that was because the team still hopes to convince top Russian goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin to come to the U.S., which might be easier with Lehner out of the way and a veteran countryman in place to ease him into the NHL. However, Varlamov has the potential to be quite successful with the Islanders’ defensive system. He has been quite successful over the years, but has had to deal with many injuries as well.

Bailey may be one of the better deals the teams has. The pass-first winger put up another solid season, putting up 16 goals and 56 points and added four goals in the playoffs and is a key player on the team’s top-six. On the other hand, Ladd may have the contract that looks the worst on the team. The 33-year-old veteran continues to deal with injury issues. This time, the veteran only appeared in 26 games, putting up just three goals for the team. He put up a 23-goal season back in the 2016-17 season, but the team rewarded him with a seven-year, $38.5MM deal, which so far looks like a disaster after he has scored just 15 goals in two seasons and isn’t likely to get the minutes he needs to make that deal look decent.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Anthony Beauvillier

This will be a key year for Beauvillier once he signs. A 2015 first-round pick, the 22-year-old winger struggled in a top-six role last year, putting up 18 goals and 10 assists and he must show that he can take his game to another level. He likely will command some kind of bridge deal to prove his value to the franchise as he hasn’t necessarily shown enough to warrant a long-term deal. However, if he can’t show that he belongs on the top-six, he could find himself falling to the third line soon.

Best Value: Bailey
Worst Value: Ladd

Looking Ahead

The Islanders put all their eggs in one basket this summer. Lamoriello had all the cap space he needed to shape the franchise any way he wanted, but in the end, he brought back almost all of his key unrestricted free agents and has committed to keep his team. The team broke all expectations last season as few expected the team to even make the playoffs, let alone sweep their first-round opponent. Regardless, the belief that under head coach Barry Trotz, the team will continue to get better and battle for a Stanley Cup for the next few years. The team has committed to its core and now have to hope that their farm system can continue to develop their young players and add to the Islanders team for the next few years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Metropolitan Division: Kessel, Martin, Sorokin, Lee

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Just a few days ago, it was leaked that the Pittsburgh Penguins were closing in on a deal to send veteran forward Phil Kessel to Minnesota in a four-player trade. However, that trade hasn’t happened yet, suggesting that Kessel, who has can choose eight teams that he cannot reject a trade to, isn’t interested in playing for the Wild.

This complication could be a major issue for Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford, according to The Athletic’s Rob Rossi (subscription required), whose goal was to move Kessel and free up some cap room as early as possible, so the team could begin reshaping its roster. Once that deal was done, Rutherford could concentrate on his checklist that includes finalizing a new contract for goaltender Matt Murray, smoothing things over with Evgeni Malkin, working towards adding more youth throughout its franchise and possibly adding more picks in the early portion of the upcoming draft.

Yet, with Kessel flashing an unwillingness to be cooperative in where he gets traded, Rutherford’s job has gotten quite a bit harder. Rossi points out that Kessel’s value takes a big hit if he has little control on where Kessel goes, which could limit the team’s ability to cut salary this offseason. On top of that, now that everyone knows that Rutherford wants to move Kessel out, it will even be harder to get a good trade in the future.

  • Sticking with the Penguins, TribLive’s Jonathan Bombulie reports that after not getting the head coaching position with the Ottawa Senators or Buffalo Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins assistant coach Jacques Martin will return for a fifth season with the Penguins. That’s good news for Pittsburgh, as he was critical in running the team’s defense and penalty kill. Martin lost out on the Ottawa job to Toronto assistant coach D.J. Smith, while Buffalo hired Ralph Krueger.
  • The Athletic’s Arthur Staple (subscription required) writes that it doesn’t look like the New York Islanders will be signing goaltending prospect Ilya Sorokin out of the KHL this season. The team had hoped that Sorokin would buy out his final season of his KHL contract after he led his team to the Gagarin Cup Championships this year and come over to New York a year early. However, Staple writes that the 23-year-old netminder, who posted a 1.16 GAA and a .940 save percentage in the regular season for CSKA Moscow and was equally good in the playoffs, has chosen to finish out his contract, so the earliest New York would see him was the 2020-21 season.
  • The New York Post’s Brett Cyrgalis writes that now the New York Islanders have locked up center Brock Nelson to a six-year, $36MM deal, the team must now focus their attention on captain Anders Lee, who is rumored to be seeking a seven-year deal at $7MM per season. That may be too much for general manager Lou Lamoriello, but at the same time would leave a huge hole in their lineup if they let him walk, leaving Lamoriello with the task of replacing him with either Jordan Eberle or another underwhelming option.

 

Islanders Re-Sign Brock Nelson To Six-Year Extension

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The New York Islanders had four key players approaching unrestricted free agency this off-season, but they have cut that number down to three. The Islanders have announced that they have signed center Brock Nelson to a long-term contract extension. The new deal is six years at $6MM per season for Nelson, who becomes both the highest-paid and longest-signed player on New York’s roster (for now). The full deal breaks down as follows:

  • 2019-20: $8.0MM + full no-trade
  • 2020-21: $5.2MM + full no-trade
  • 2021-22: $8.0MM + partial no-trade
  • 2022-23: $5.2MM + partial no-trade
  • 2023-24: $5.6MM + partial no-trade
  • 2024-25: $4.0MM + partial no-trade

Nelson, 27, bet on himself last summer by signing a one-year, $4.25MM extension with the Islanders in hopes that a breakout season would earn him the long-term, high-paying deal he was seeking. That gamble worked out perfectly, as Nelson enjoyed the best season of his career and had been set to hit the market as likely the third-best center and a top-15 or so free agent. The Islanders knew they had to pay, perhaps even slightly over market value, to keep Nelson and did just that. The six-year term is less of a concern, as Nelson will be just 33 when the contract expires.

New head coach Barry Trotz took an immediate liking to Nelson this season, giving him more than three minutes of extra ice time per night compared to last year, as well as an increased role on special teams. Nelson responded with a career-high 53 points this season and finished third on the Islanders in scoring. He was also New York’s best five-on-five forward, leading the team in even strength goals and points. The team clearly trusts Nelson to continue playing a well-rounded game and growing his offensive ability.

As the first major UFA forward to sign a long-term extension this off-season, Nelson sets the bar for not only his fellow Islanders teammates but for the market as a whole. After signing Nelson, the Islanders still have over $29.2MM in cap space per CapFriendly. The team still hopes to sign forwards Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle, as well as goaltender Robin Lehner. Although Nelson outscored Lee and Eberle this season, the unsigned duo are around the same age as Nelson but have more experience, more scoring history, and simply more talent. The 6×6 deal agreed to by Nelson is unlikely to do the trick for either Lee or Eberle, meaning signing both would chew up more than $12MM of the Islanders’ remaining cap space. It’s still very possible for them to sign all of their key free agents, but not as easy now that Nelson’s deal is in place. Elsewhere on the market, Nelson’s $6MM AAV will likely raise the price tag for the likes of Kevin Hayes, Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, and Brett Connolly among others, as each are close in age and platform production to Nelson, albeit Hayes is the only center in the group. This is just the first of what are likely to be several big-name extensions prior to July 1st, but Nelson’s deal will certainly have ramifications in the current marketplace.

Poll: How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign Before July 1st?

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The season is over for all but four NHL teams, meaning free agents from the other 27 clubs are already focused on July 1st and the start of free agency. How many of those top free agents are still considering staying where they are versus testing the market? How many teams have the means and interest to re-sign them?

In January, PHR published our Mid-Season UFA Power Rankings: 1-10, 11-20, and honorable mentions. Mark Stone, Eric Staal, Jakob Silfverberg and Jimmy Howard – four of our top 25 –  have already signed extensions. However, the other top names and their current squads have exactly seven weeks to decide whether or not they will follow suit.

The Columbus Blue Jackets went all in at the trade deadline and it paid off with the franchise’s first ever playoff series win, a shocking sweep of the President’s Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. Yet, the acquisitions of Ottawa Senators standouts Matt Duchene (No. 5) and Ryan Dzingel (No. 16) was not enough to get the team through round two, nevertheless to a Stanley Cup title. Now, the team faces the possibility that their new additions could walk in free agency alongside stars Artemi Panarin (No. 2) and Sergei Bobrovsky (No. 6), leaving them with major holes to fill. The latter duo have long been expected to test the market, perhaps even as a package deal. Additionally, the conditional 2020 first-round pick tied to re-signing Duchene would seemingly make it less likely that Columbus opts to extend him, especially given their lack of picks in the upcoming draft. None of those three have officially ruled out a return to the Blue Jackets, but it doesn’t look good. On the other hand, Dzingel, an Ohio State University alum, looks like he could be a more natural long-term fit, but it hasn’t prevented rumors that other teams are very interested in signing him.

Another free agent-heavy team that blew through round one of the playoffs only to be knocked off in round two are the New York Islanders. After losing John Tavares last summer, going through the same with top forward Anders Lee (No. 9) would be devastating for the Islanders franchise. Yet, the captain still remains unsigned. It’s fair to assume they will eventually figure it out, but that line of thinking if awfully reminiscent of last year. New York is reportedly pushing hard to retain enter Brock Nelson (No. 11) and winger Jordan Eberle (No. 15) as well, but they could be more inclined to test the market. There’s also the question of resurgent goalie Robin Lehner (No. 23). Will the Islanders lock up the young keeper who was so solid this season? Or will they refuse to pay market value for a player that has benefited from their system while splitting time with Thomas Greiss?

Another team of interest are the San Jose Sharks, who remain alive in the Western Conference Final. Superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson (No. 1) and respected veteran forward Joe Pavelski (No. 7) are both heading for free agency and the Sharks may be hard-pressed to sign both. There’s also deadline addition Gustav Nyquist (No. 14) to consider re-signing, as he has had a strong postseason with the Sharks. The Carolina Hurricanes are also one of four teams still playing and are definitely happy they held on to forward Micheal Ferland (No. 18). Ferland is reportedly expected to test the market, but after a deep postseason run he may be more open to extending his stay with the Hurricanes.

It was a difficult end to the year for the Winnipeg Jets, who were one-and-done this year, falling to the St. Louis Blues in the first round. Between rental center Kevin Hayes (No. 8) and big defenseman Tyler Myers (No. 10), the Jets have a pair of coveted free agents on the roster who they would surely like to keep, but that is the least of their worries as they face a daunting impending cap crunch. It could make bringing back even one of the two nearly impossible. The same goes for defenseman Jake Gardiner (No. 12) and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs will have a hard enough time keeping their roster together and re-signing their current restricted free agent, nevertheless managing to re-sign Gardiner.

Generally, playoff rentals proceed to hit the free agent market rather than re-up with their new teams. In addition to Duchene, Dzingel, Hayes, and Nyquist, Nashville’s Wayne Simmonds (No. 13), Dallas’ Mats Zuccarello (No. 21), and Colorado’s Derick Brassard (No. 24) could very well be headed to yet another destination. Simmonds and Brassard were disappointments in their short stays, but Zuccarello proved to be a nice fit with the Stars. However, the team would lose a first-round pick rather than a second-round pick to the New York Rangers if they were to re-sign the veteran forward. That may not be enough to stop them from extending him, though.

If there was any doubt that the Buffalo Sabres couldn’t re-sign Jeff Skinner (No. 4), one would think he would have been dealt at the trade deadline. However, he remains suspiciously unsigned and would be a massive addition to the free agent market if he does make it to July. Skinner has been a great match with Jack Eichel and certainly looks like a long-term fit in Buffalo, but the team’s second-half struggles could have Skinner re-thinking a long-term stay.

Vancouver’s Alexander Edler (No. 22) stated that his preference was not to be dealt at this year’s trade deadline and to instead re-sign with the Canucks. The two sides have been working toward an extension, but until pen meets paper he is still an impending free agent that will attract considerable attention. Similarly, Semyon Varlamov (No. 17) has expressed an interest in remaining with the Colorado Avalanche, but it’s unclear if the feeling is mutual. Varlamov would have to take a major pay cut to stay on as backup and may rather test a goalie market that has already lost Howard and could lose Lehner before free agency opens.

Compared to recent years, this impending free agent class does look to have fewer locks for extensions among top players. Any of these names could hit the market, although odds are they won’t all choose to do so. Regardless, this could be a healthy market come July 1st. Just how deep could it be? That’s for you to guess. How many of these top free agents will sign extensions?

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Islanders Notes: Free Agency, Lehner, Offense, Lambert

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After a tough sweep at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes in the second round, right after they impressed everyone by sweeping the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round, there remain many questions surrounding the New York Islanders and in what direction general manager Lou Lamoriello will go this off-season. They have multiple key free agent forwards that could hit the open market in July, including forwards Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee and Brock Nelson.

Newsday’s Andrew Gross makes his predictions on who is staying or going and is quick to point out that it’s likely that Lamoriello may only keep one of their three top-six free agent forwards. The question is whether he can get Lee to agree to take a little less to remain with the team. Gross believes that Lee would ask for six years at $6MM per, which Lamoriello might agree to, but both Eberle and Nelson could ask for similar amounts and if one of them opts to take less, that may be who ends up staying.

The scribe also adds that some of their other free agents could get re-signed, especially Valtteri Filppula and Tanner Fritz to smaller, shorter-term deals.

  • With tons of cap space and multiple key free agents of their own, the team must decide whether they intend to re-sign some of those players as well as whether they intend to dip into free agency and go after some bigger fish. What the team needs to do is find a way to sign Robin Lehner to cement their goaltending situation, according to Emily Kaplan and Chris Peters of ESPN (subscription required). Lehner, who has become a fan favorite in New York after an incredible season, is needed in New York with Thomas Greiss down to his last year on his contract. Lehner and Greiss combined to win the Jennings Trophy, while Lehner is also a finalist for the Vezina Trophy after putting up 25 wins, a 2.13 GAA, and a .930 save percentage during the regular season. Despite many who feel that Lehner failed in the playoffs, his numbers were still even better in the playoffs, posting a 2.00 GAA and a .936 save percentage. He was a bargain at $1.5MM, but will need a big raise this summer if the Islanders want to keep him.
  • Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post writes that what Lamoriello needs to find this summer is more high-impact scorers who can help with head coach Barry Trotz’s grinding defense. Like in Washington, Trotz’ defensive system relies on high-end forwards who can get opportunistic goals, which the team struggled to do in the second round of the playoffs. Trotz, however, believes there is talent in their system, which might be ready to supplement the team. “We knew that we were a little bit lean in some of the high-skill positions, but we have some good kids coming,” Trotz said.
  • With the Islanders eliminated, that could open up some coaching opportunity for associate coach Lane Lambert, according to The Athletic’s Scott Burnside (subscription required). The 54-year-old Lambert has been a long-time assistant to Trotz and might be one of the top assistant coaches ready to make the transition to the head coaching position. He has been key to game planning and practices and has been a critical part of the team’s penalty kill unit.

Arizona Coyotes To Target Scoring This Off-Season

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The Arizona Coyotes missed out on the postseason this year by a mere four points. While a success overall for the rebuilding club, the Coyotes struggled greatly on offense. The team’s 209 goals for were tied for third-worst in the NHL and their 16.3% power play success rate was sixth-worst. Behind stellar goaltending from Darcy Kuemper and strong team defense, the team largely got the job done, but they need to improve their scoring if they want to take the next step.

It’s thus no surprise that both Richard Morin of Arizona Republic and Craig Morgan of The Athletic write that Arizona will be looking to add a prominent scoring forward this summer. GM John Chayka would seem to agree:

I think to understand what we need to do to improve is pretty simple: We need to score more goals. I think anytime someone’s going through and trying to diagnose what you need to do to take that next step, that’s not the complicated part or complex part. I think what we need to understand and work through is, how do we score more goals? How do we create more offense, while maintaining that fundamental foundation of being a good stingy, defensive team.

Among the top options – albeit unlikely – for the Coyotes on the free agent market would be Columbus Blue Jackets stars Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene, Buffalo Sabres’ standout Jeff Skinner, or any of the New York Islanders’ trio of Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle, and Brock Nelson. All of these forwards are prime talents, but may not be available to Arizona. Both Skinner and Lee are expected to re-sign with their current teams, as could Eberle or Nelson, while Panarin and Duchene are likely outside the Coyotes’ price range. More accessible free agent scorers could include Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, Wayne Simmonds, or Brett Connolly, one or two of which would be a major boost to Arizona’s offense.

Morgan also adds that several cap-strapped teams could be forced to move talented forwards, leaving the Coyotes in places to scoop up valuable players at a discount. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, and Tampa Bay Lightning are all in a tough spot, leaving the likes of Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mathieu Perreault, Ondrej Palat, J.T. Miller, or Alex Killorn possibly up for grabs.

Either by signing or trade, the Coyotes are likely to add a prominent forward or two and are expected to target wingers rather than centers. Arizona will be a team to watch this off-season as they target several of the aforementioned top names.

Panthers, Islanders Expected To Be Active This Off-Season

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With the New York Islanders sitting in second place in the Metropolitan Division and the Florida Panthers not yet out of postseason contention, eight points back of the final wild card slot with a game in hand, fans are not yet looking toward next season with plenty of meaningful games left this season. Yet, the two Eastern Conference teams are expected by many to be some of the most active players in the upcoming off-season. The Islanders could have more cap space entering the summer than just about any other team, while the Panthers have not won a playoff series since 1996 and are desperate to take a step forward. Both teams have needs and could look to fill them in explosive fashion this off-season.

Things have gone as well as they possibly could have this season for the Islanders. Despite losing John Tavares and entering the year with an unproven goalie tandem, the team is not only playoff-bound, but also the league leader in goals against average. Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss have been stellar in net, the team’s young defensemen have taken a major step forward under new head coach Barry Trotz, and the offense has picked up the seemingly insurmountable slack that Tavares left behind. Yet, much of their success could be undone by free agency, which would leave the team in need of making several big additions. Lehner is an impending free agent and the Isles must decide whether or not to commit to the young reclamation project or else seek a long-term replacement, with 33-year-old Greiss only signed for one more year. Yet, the net is not even the greatest of their concerns. Captain Anders Lee and fellow top forwards Brock Nelson and Jordan Eberle are approaching free agency without new contracts. After losing Tavares last summer, it seems almost impossible that New York could also let Lee slip away. But can the same be said for Nelson and Eberle, who are also top-five scoring forwards for the Isles. The team may be in a position where they need to add considerable talent up front, as well as replenish depth.

Currently projected to have the fourth-most cap space of any team this summer, the Islanders could hypothetically re-sign Lehner and their trio of forwards without issue or else find free agents on the market. However, if spending power is not enough to bring in top free agents – like say Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky – GM Lou Lamoriello could explore the trade market. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple writes that the Islanders’ newfound depth on the blue line could help to facilitate a major trade. He believes that the team wants to move forward with a young core of Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield, and Devon Toews on the blue line. He also mentions AHL All-Star Sebastian Aho as another key piece, while recent high draft picks Noah Dobson and Bode Wilde also deserve consideration. This youth movement has made top defenseman Nick Leddy expendable and Staple believes that he is a talent that could bring back an established top-six forward. The Islanders could also look to move veterans Johnny Boychuk and Thomas Hickey instead of or in addition to Leddy. That trade flexibility paired with ample cap space make the Isles a dangerous player on the trade market this summer, if not all of their problems can be fixed via free agency.

In fact, the Panthers could wind up being an ideal trade partner for the Islanders. Florida leads the NHL this season with five 20-goal scorers and has an offensive game and potent power play that few in the league can rival. However, their defense and their goaltending both leave a lot to be desired. The Panthers don’t have the cap space that the Islanders do, but The Athletic’s George Richards believes that the team plans to make trades to free up cap space in order to hit the free agent market with more bargaining power. Florida is another team that has been linked to the Panarin/Bobrovksy package, while they are also a team that could greatly benefit from adding Erik Karlsson. Richards writes that the team will be “aggressive” in pursuing top free agents, but that doesn’t mean they will succeed in drawing targets to a non-traditional hockey market.

As such, Florida could also wind up making noise on the trade market and a name like Leddy would be the caliber of player they would like to add. Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov have enjoyed strong seasons with the Panthers this year, but both have just one season remaining and could be on the trade block this summer. There were also rumors that Jonathan Huberdeau was a player that GM Dale Tallon listened to offers for at the trade deadline again and he could do so again for the team’s highest-paid forward. These are names that will move the needle for other NHL clubs. Veteran goaltenders Roberto Luongo and James Reimer? Not so much. However, the team needs to improve on its poor goaltending and to do so would need to move one (or both) of the tandem costing them a combined $7.933MM. This may involve Florida moving picks or prospects as well. There are many layers to the trade possibilities for the Panthers this off-season, making them a fascinating team to watch.

With weeks remaining in the regular season and the unknown of the postseason yet to come, the status quo could change for either one of these teams. As things stand though, there are major question marks for both squads that at this point don’t look like they can be answered until after the playoffs have ended. As soon as that happens, the Islanders and Panthers will become must-watch teams in how they approach the NHL Draft, the start of free agency, and the summer trade market. Both clubs could look drastically different in 2019-20 by way of an active off-season.

No Substantial Extension Talks Between Islanders And Brock Nelson

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Earlier this week, it was noted that the Islanders have some concerns about the term that winger Anders Lee is seeking on his next contract.  He’s far from the only notable pending unrestricted free agent that they have but it doesn’t appear they’re rushing to get into discussions with those players just yet either.  Speaking with Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post, center Brock Nelson indicated that he’s yet to have substantial negotiations with the team on a new deal yet, something that doesn’t appear to bother him at this time:

There hasn’t really been any talks or any indication one way or the other. That’s a good thing for all parties, take it day-by-day. Everybody wants to win and we’re in a good spot to do that right now.

The 27-year-old is in the midst of a career season with 20 goals and 23 assists in 65 games so far this season.  Accordingly, he is lining himself up nicely for a raise on the $4.25MM he signed for to avoid salary arbitration back in July.

While Nelson could make a case for a long-term deal, Cyrgalis suggests that a long-term deal is something that GM Lou Lamoriello would like to avoid, hinting that teammate Josh Bailey’s six-year term is considerably longer than he’d like to give Nelson.  In order to get him to take a shorter deal, the Islanders would likely need to up the AAV of the contract which could push his cap hit closer to the $6MM per season range.

Winger Jordan Eberle is also eligible for free agency this summer and like Nelson, there have yet to be any talks of significance on a new deal.  He has 30 points in 61 games this season which won’t help his cause for beating his current $6MM AAV on his next deal.

With less than $48MM tied up in 16 players for next season, the Islanders figure to be big players this offseason.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising if Lamoriello is willing to slow-play things with his existing UFAs in an effort to see if he has a realistic opportunity at going after some of the top players that are eligible to hit the open market including winger Artemi Panarin and defenseman Erik Karlsson.  After losing John Tavares last summer, the Islanders figure to be much more active in free agency this time around, even if they come to terms with Nelson or others beforehand.

Deadline Primer: New York Islanders

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Metropolitan Division, here is a look at the New York Islanders.

The New York Islanders are under new management and new general manager Lou Lamoriello has made a name for himself over the years with numerous big deals at the trade deadline during his time with New Jersey and Toronto. The question is whether Lamoriello intends to making a big move with his team being atop the Metropolitan Division.

The team has a core of pending unrestricted free agents who Lamoriello may or may not bring back next season and a number of impressive prospects that are either on the team or sitting with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL and has plenty of cap space to work with. Besides Mathew Barzal, the team still lacks a defining core to work and could use another big-name player or two to give the team several faces to the franchise, which is where the deadline could come in. The real question is do the Islanders want to take the chance of possibly damaging the chemistry the team has created so far this year under head coach Barry Trotz.

Record

35-17-6, first in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Serious to moderate buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$46.12MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: NYI 1st, CAL 2nd, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th
2020: NYI 1st, NYI 2nd, NYI 3rd, NYI 4th, NYI 5th, NYI 6th, NYI 7th

Trade Chips

The team has a number of players it could package to a team for a big-name player as the team has five significant players who are approaching unrestricted free agency in the summer, including Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Valtteri Filppula and goaltender Robin Lehner. That doesn’t mean the team has any intention of trading even one of those players. That also doesn’t mean the team won’t let them walk away in free agency either. In fact, there is little known about what the team intends to do before next season and knowing what we know about Lamoriello, the team will make significant changes to their team before the start of next season. However, if Lamoriello intends to make a deal, those five could potentially be part of any package. One interesting storyline is Lehner, who is having a comeback season after struggling greatly in Buffalo and dealing with alcoholism. However, does the franchise feel that he is worthy of a long-term deal or could Lehner be used to work out a deal for a Sergei Bobrovsky?

The team also has a number of young players who could be sent out as well, including Michael Dal Colle, Kieffer Bellows, Joshua Ho-Sang, Otto Koivula, and Sebastian Aho to name a few and that doesn’t even include the talent they still have sitting in the junior ranks. Bellows could be a significant trade chip as the team’s 2016 first-rounder has had significant success on his way up, but has also had some struggles. He currently has 11 goals as a rookie in the AHL. Ho-Sang, who has showed some offensive flair over the years, hasn’t put it all together and has struggled with his attitude. One other significant asset the team has is a significant amount of cap space and the team could be willing to take on a bad contract or two if that can net them another talent.

Five Players To Watch For: F Keiffer Bellows, F Jordan Eberle, F Joshua Ho-Sang, G Robin Lehner, F Brock Nelson

Team Needs

1) Franchise Player: Other than Barzal, the team lacks that face-of-the-franchise player at the forward position who can take over games for the next eight years. The team does have Josh Bailey under contract for a few more years, but the rest of the top-six will have to be written, whether that includes re-signing some of their own unrestricted free agents or whether they attempt to trade for a player like Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone or even someone like Bobrovsky in net.

2) Upgrade on defense: The interesting thing about the Islanders’ defense is that it went from being one of the worst defenses in the league in the 2017-18 season as they allowed 3.57 goals per game (31st in the league) and suddenly the team has totally turned that around in 2018-19 as they have allowed just 2.29 goals per game (first in the league). And that’s with almost no changes on defensive personnel. The team lost defenseman Calvin De Haan, but basically returned the same group from the previous year. Obviously, much of the credit should be given to Trotz, but at the same time, the team needs to consider adding to that defense and improving its blueline like acquiring a Alec Martinez from Los Angeles or Cody Ceci from Ottawa.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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