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Salary Cap Deep Dive 2019

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $65,734,082 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Pierre-Luc Dubois (one year, $894K)
F Alexandre Texier (two years, $898K)

Potential Bonuses:

Dubois: $2.5MM

Dubois was a surprise selection at third overall three years ago and GM Jarmo Kekalainen should be praised for the decision to take him over the consensus selection in Jesse Puljujarvi.  He followed up a strong rookie season with an improved sophomore campaign and with Matt Duchene gone, Dubois should have the inside track on the number one center role on a full-time basis.  He’ll be wanting to keep tabs on the current class of restricted free agents as it’s quite possible that Dubois will be among the headliners in next year’s group if they can’t agree on an early extension which could potentially exceed the $8MM mark if he builds on his 2018-19 performance.

Texier joined the team late in the season and worked his way into a regular role for the most part in the playoffs.  That should give him the inside track at a roster spot.  The Blue Jackets like his upside but he’ll need more run at the NHL level before they get a sense of what his second contract could be.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Josh Anderson ($1.85MM, RFA)
F Markus Hannikainen ($750K, UFA)
G Joonas Korpisalo ($1.15MM, RFA)
D Dean Kukan ($725K, RFA)
G Elvis Merzlikins ($874K, RFA)

Anderson’s three-year bridge deal was a way to see if he could establish himself as a top-six player first before committing that type of money to him.  Mission accomplished.  He broke out with a 27-goal season that also saw him surpass the 200-hit mark and has established himself as a quality power forward.  A similar performance could see him triple his current money on his next deal.  Hannikainen is a capable depth option but he won’t get much more than his current rate a year from now unless he has a breakout year offensively.  As for Kukan, he’s also in a spot where he can’t expect much of a raise unless he can work his way into a regular role.

Their goaltending is going to be interesting to watch.  The team hopes that Korpisalo can continue to progress and grab a hold of the number one role but he’s only once played in 30 NHL games in a single season.  Meanwhile, Merzlikins has yet to play in the NHL.  This could wind up being a platoon for a couple of years but in 2020-21, it will be a fair bit more expensive than it is now.

Two Years Remaining

F Oliver Bjorkstrand ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Brandon Dubinsky ($5.85MM, UFA)
F Nick Foligno ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Murray ($4.6MM, UFA)
F Riley Nash ($2.75MM, UFA)
D David Savard ($4.25MM, UFA)

Foligno hasn’t been able to come close to his career year back in 2014-15 which is when his current deal was signed.  They’re paying him like a top-six player but he has produced more like a third liner in recent years.  That’s still more than what they’ve been getting from Dubinsky who has spent a lot of time on the fourth line and hasn’t fared well.  While Foligno will be taking a pay cut on his next deal, there may not be another one for Dubinsky.

Nash was brought in to give the Blue Jackets some extra depth down the middle.  He still gives them that but he came up well short of the production that landed him that deal; he had just three goals last season.  That’s not a great return either.  Bjorkstrand is on an Anderson-like bridge contract to see if he can become a consistent top-six producer.  Year one went well and if he continues on that path, he could push for a sizable raise next time around.

Savard hasn’t come close to matching his 35-point output from 2014-15 but has nonetheless established himself as a capable top-four defender most nights.  His current deal is pretty close to the going rate for players with a track record of success in that role.  When healthy, Murray is certainly worth his contract.  But staying healthy isn’t something he has been able to do over the years.  If he shows some signs of durability over the next couple of years, a big contract would be on the horizon but if not, he’ll be hard-pressed to match his current deal.

Three Years Remaining

D Scott Harrington ($1.633MM, UFA)
F Boone Jenner ($4.75MM, UFA)
D Seth Jones ($5.4MM, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($2.7MM, UFA)

Jenner has yet to come close to his 30-goal output from 2015-16; he hasn’t even reached 20 since then.  However, he remains a capable third liner with the ability to hold his own when pressed into top six duty.  They need more production from him and he will need to provide that if he wants to get a bigger contract three summers from now.

Jones is on quite the bargain contract.  He has established himself as a capable number one defender and is doing so at a price tag that is several million below what comparable players have been getting.  With the way the market is going, he could have a shot at doubling his AAV on his next deal.  Nutivaara is more of an option on the third pairing but while his cap hit may be a bit high for someone in that role, they have more than enough cap space to carry it.  Harrington has been more of a depth player throughout his career which makes this contract they gave him a bit puzzling but again, they have the cap space to make it a non-issue.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Cam Atkinson ($5.875MM through 2024-25)
F Gustav Nyquist ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.9MM through 2022-23)

Atkinson is coming off a career year that saw him post 41 goals.  He doesn’t get a lot of fanfare but he has become a legitimate front-line winger at a rate that’s well below market value.  Nyquist was their lone big splash this offseason.  While he won’t replace Artemi Panarin’s production, he’s coming off a career year offensively and should see plenty of ice time with the Blue Jackets.  Wennberg’s deal once looked like a bargain but has been a disaster.  He scored just twice in 75 games last season despite averaging over 15 minutes a night.  Instead of being a long-term fixture for the franchise, this is looking more like a long-term anchor.

Buyouts

F Scott Hartnell ($1.25MM through 2020-21)
D Fedor Tyutin ($1.458MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Zach Werenski

Part of the reason that the Blue Jackets have this much cap space is that Werenski’s deal isn’t done.  He sits atop the class of RFA blueliners this summer and is among the group that’s seemingly waiting for someone else to sign first.  He’s easily going to surpass Jones to sit atop their back end in terms of AAV if a deal with any sort of notable term gets signed.  Not having him signed to start the season would certainly be a huge blow.

Best Value: Jones
Worst Value: Dubinsky

Looking Ahead

While their outlook for 2019-20 in general isn’t particularly strong, the Blue Jackets at least have plenty of salary cap flexibility both for the upcoming season and the foreseeable future.  They could opt to use some of that cap space to take on an unwanted contract or two to add some additional assets for the upcoming season. Even with Werenski and Dubois set to be in line for major second contracts, they should still have enough room to make a run at some prominent free agents in the summers to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $79,004,791 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Andrei Svechnikov (two years, $925K)
F Martin Necas (three years, $863K)
D Jake Bean (two years, $863K)
F Warren Foegele (one year, $747K)

Potential Bonuses:

Svechnikov: $2.65MM
Necas: $538K
Bean: $500K
Foegele: $20K

With a system full of top prospects, the Hurricanes got an impressive rookie season from Svechnikov, drafted with the second-overall pick in 2018, last season and now will have a top-six option for another two years at an entry-level cost. At 18 years old, he tallied 20 goals and 37 points and should be in line for more playing time and bigger numbers this season as a 19-year-old and could eventually become the franchise winger the team needs long-term. The Hurricanes also have high hopes for Necas to step in and take big role next season at the center position. The 2017 first-rounder had an impressive season for the Calder Cup Champion Charlotte Checkers of the AHL and could provide Carolina with some cheap talent.

Bean, the team’s first-rounder in 2016, has only made two appearances for Carolina, but could get a chance to take a much bigger role after a strong season with Charlotte, which saw his skills take that next step. The 23-year-old Foegele began to show off his offensive skill over the course of the season in Carolina. He scored 10 goals and 15 points during the regular season, but was even more impressive in the playoffs with five goals and nine points in just 15 games. If he can take his game up a notch, the Hurricanes could have an even more impressive offense next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Justin Faulk ($4.83MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.75MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($2.3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($874K, RFA)
D Haydn Fleury ($850K, RFA)
F Brian Gibbons ($725K, UFA)
F Clark Bishop ($700K, RFA)
F Lucas Wallmark ($675K, RFA)

There were rumors that suggested that talks between Carolina and Faulk were no where close on a potential extension and others that said negotiations were promising, however, Faulk could be a legitimate trade candidate if the team can’t eventually work out an extension. The 27-year-old Faulk had a solid season both defensively as he was finally in the positive on his plus/minus for the first time in his career, while also adding 11 goals and 35 points. However, with a number of young defensemen who are waiting for a chance to get an opportunity in Carolina, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Carolina unload him at the trade deadline.

Haula is an interesting acquisition. The 28-year-old was coming off a 29-goal season in Vegas’ inaugural season, but then suffered a gruesome knee injury and never returned. In the end, he played just 15 games, although he was close to returning late in the season with many believing that he would have been available had the Golden Knights had gotten deeper into the playoffs. If he can prove to be healthy, Haula might prove to be one of the best acquisitions of the year. Whether the Hurricanes will re-sign him will obviously depend on how he fares next season.

The team might be ready to move on from van Riemsdyk, who has served as a bottom pairing defenseman, but probably makes too much at $2.3MM to keep around long term, especially since Fleury hasn’t really had a true chance to prove himself and could be a better option at his price.

Two Years Remaining

D Dougie Hamilton ($5.75MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($3.38MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.13MM, UFA)
F Brock McGinn ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($2MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($738K, RFA)

The team has a number of interesting contracts with two years left, including their entire goaltending situation. The team has Mrazek, who put together a stellar season after years of inconsistency, and new backup Reimer as the new tandem with their top prospect in Nedeljkovic close to ready to step into the lineup. All three will likely stay this season as Nedeljkovic is waiver exempt and likely will just stay in the AHL. However, if he can prove in training camp that he’s ready for the back-up role, few would be surprised if the team found a way to unload Reimer, who had a terrible season last year in Florida.

Despite hearing constant rumors that Carolina was shopping Hamilton around this offseason, it looks like the Hurricanes will have the veteran defenseman for another season. He put up solid numbers, scoring 18 goals an 39 points and is solid defensively, but he could eventually be a trade candidate, perhaps as early as the trade deadline if the team struggles and can’t reproduce the same success it had a season ago. The team also hopes that they can get Dzingel to provide the same type of offense he was producing in Ottawa, rather than his struggles in Columbus. However, he should provide solid value at his pricetag and fit in nicely as a middle-six option.

Three Years Remaining

F Nino Niederreiter ($5.25MM, UFA)

It might have been the trade of the year when the Hurricanes acquired Niederreiter from Minnesota for Victor Rask. While Rask struggled in Minnesota, Niederreiter’s season took off when he arrived, scoring 14 goals and 30 points in 36 games and he slotted in nicely on the first line. If he can produce anything close to that, the team has a steal of a deal for the next three years. If his production drops back to what it was in Minnesota earlier in the year (nine goals and 23 points in 46 games) then the team has a contract that could be a burden for some time.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Sebastian Aho ($8.45MM through 2023-24)
F Jordan Staal ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4MM through 2023-24)
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM through 2024-25)
D Brett Pesce ($4.03MM through 2023-24)

The Montreal Canadiens did Carolina a favor when they shocked the NHL by signing Aho to an offer sheet that didn’t look difficult to match. While five years likely isn’t ideal, the Hurricanes still now have their top franchise player signed until 2024 and can figure out its plans after that, but now are one of the few teams that have locked up their franchise restricted free agent already, with the rest still waiting to sign a contract. That should provide Aho, who had another breakout season with 30 goals and 83 points, with plenty of time to be ready for training camp and see if he can take his game to another level once again.

His linemate in Teravainen is another key piece of Carolina’s future who keeps producing better and better numbers. The 24-year-old produced 21 goals and a career-high 76 points and is locked up for another five years as well, giving Aho a solid winger to work with. The team, however, may not be as thrilled with the four years it still has in Staal, who produced one of his worst seasons although injuries did play apart. The 30-year-old still has four years at $6MM from a 10-year, $60MM deal he signed back in 2012. After posting just 11 goals and 28 points in 50 games, the team hopes he can bounce back.

One thing the Hurricanes did was locking up its young defenders. The team has seen Slavin develop into a top-line defenseman in the last year and to have him locked up at just $5.3MM for six more years will likely be one of the team’s biggest bargain for a long time. He has been averaging more than 22 minutes per game for three of his four seasons in the league. Pesce has also seen his game increase and is also a steal with the rising cost of young defensemen lately. Pesce saw his minutes break 20 minutes for a second straight season, while his offense increased by 10 points.

Buyouts

F Patrick Marleau ($6.25MM in 2019-20)
F Alexander Semin ($2.33MM through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

F Justin Williams (UFA)
F Saku Maenalanen (RFA)
D Roland McKeown (RFA)

One question that is still up for grabs is whether Williams will return to the team. The 37-year-old winger has been told he can take as much time as he wants to determine whether he wants to return to hockey. He’s made it clear it’s either Carolina or retirement, but after putting up a solid campaign last year of 23 goals and 53 points, it’s hard to believe that the veteran leader is ready to hang it up if he still is capable of producing as a top-six forward. While he may eventually have to slide down to the third line, the veteran was critical to the team’s deep playoff run and Carolina hopes he will come back.

While McKeown might have a hard time finding playing time in Carolina’s stacked defense, the team will need to get Maenalanen signed at some point. The 6-foot-4 bottom-six winger stepped into the lineup late in the season and was a solid contributor, posting four goals and eight points in 34 games, while skating for just 9:26 of ATOI. He provided some physical play and if he can steal a spot on the fourth line, could be valuable.

Best Value: Slavin
Worst Value: Staal

Looking Ahead

The Carolina Hurricanes have done an impressive job of drafting well, developing their talent and adding veteran talent at reasonable prices. With most of their core already locked up long-term and plenty of talent still on entry-level contracts, the Hurricanes should be able to keep their team competitive for years and keep getting better as the team continues to develop.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights

at CDT | by 7 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Hit: $80,474,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Zach Whitecloud (one year, $925K)
F Cody Glass (three years, $863K)
D Nicolas Hague (three years, $791K)

Potential Bonuses:

Whitecloud: $850K
Glass: $850K
Hague: $133K

While there is no guarantee that any of these three will be on the roster when the season begins, all three are expected to see time with the Golden Knights this season and could find themselves with significant roles depending on how things shake out. Glass, the team’s biggest prospect, is finally turning pro and while the organization has said in the past that Glass needs a full year of AHL work, he may have proved himself after his junior season ended last year. The sixth-overall pick from the 2017 draft, tallied five points in six AHL regualar season games, but was also one of the team’s top players throughout the AHL playoffs as he helped lead the team to the Calder Cup Finals. He tallied seven goals and 15 points in 22 playoff games. That play suggests that he might be ready and will compete for an immediate chance on the team’s third line.

Hague and Whitecloud are expected to challenge for a spot on one of the open spots in Vegas’ defense. Both players had impressive seasons with the Chicago Wolves last season and might be ready to make an impact. The 20-year-old Hague scored 13 goals in his rookie campaign, while the defensive Whitecloud showed off some offensive potential in his first full season in the AHL.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Cody Eakin ($3.85MM, UFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($2.78MM, UFA)
D Nick Holden ($2.2MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.38MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1MM, UFA)
G Malcolm Subban ($850K, RFA)
G Garret Sparks ($750K, RFA)
F Curtis McKenzie ($750K, UFA)
F William Carrier ($725K, RFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($700K, UFA)
F Valentin Zykov ($675K, RFA)

With their cap room extremely tight, there remains a legitimate possibility that the team may still make a trade and if that does happen, the player is likely to come from this list of players. Eakin, Reaves and Holden are not likely to return in a year and could be trade bait. Eakin is coming off a career-best season with 22 goals and 41 points, but assuming the team is healthier this year, will likely settle into a third-line center role this year unless Glass beats him out. However, with Eakin’s value at its highest, the team might be able to get the best return if they move him and his $3.85MM contract.

Reaves has become a fan favorite in Vegas, giving the team highlight reel hits and become a popular locker room presence. He also posted 305 hits for the Golden Knights. However, Reaves makes quite a bit of money for a player who produced nine goals and 20 points last season. With some young fourth-line players closing in on potentially replacing him, the team could find a taker in Reaves and his $2.78MM deal.

The team has been impressed with the development with Merrill, who was initially only looked at as an emergency defenseman, but really took that next step last season and has earned himself a full-time role with the possibility of even earning top-four minutes next season. Holden would be another option for the team free up cap room as the team signed him last summer to a two-year deal, but the veteran struggled to get consistent playing time and is on the outside looking in. The team might hope it can send Holden to a defense-needy team, but may be forced to bury him in the AHL if he can’t prove he belongs on the Golden Knights roster and with Engelland likely taking a lesser role at the bottom of the defense next season, it might be hard to win a spot.

The Golden Knights also have an interesting battle in net for the backup goalie spot after acquiring Sparks during the offseason from Toronto. While Subban is the likely candidate to keep the position, Sparks could provide some much needed depth in goal for the future if the Golden Knights managed to hold onto him. Sparks was a top prospect goaltender just a season ago, but struggled in his first full season in Toronto. However, the Golden Knights hope he can bounce back quickly.

Two Years Remaining

F Paul Stastny ($6.5MM, UFA)
F Brandon Pirri ($775K, UFA)

The team has been set up to provide a number of short-term deals at higher cost and Stastny is one of those who signed a three-year deal at a high AAV. Injuries limited the veteran to just 50 games last season, but when he played, he provided excellent playmaking on the team’s second line, scoring 13 goals and 42 points. If the 33-year-old can stay healthy this season, he could center one of the strongest lines in the league as he is one of the best playmakers who historically makes his line mates even better.

Pirri is an interesting addition. The 28-year-old showed off his scoring touch after being called up midway through the season. In just 31 games, he tallied 12 goals and 18 points, including a string of goals. Most expected the UFA to find a team that could offer him more playing time this summer. Instead he opted to remain and may get that playing time after the team decided to move KHL star Nikita Gusev to New Jersey this summer. Gusev had been penciled into the third line which now could fall to Pirri, who the team hopes can continue his scoring ways.

Three Years Remaining

G Marc-Andre Fleury ($7MM, UFA)
F Reilly Smith ($5MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($2.5MM, UFA)

While Fleury has been a stud since arriving from Pittsburgh in the expansion draft, the veteran goaltender is now 34 years old and has three years remaining on his deal. The Golden Knights have to hope that Fleury can continue playing at a high level for that time as they do not have a suitable replacement in the system at all yet and could find themselves in trouble in a few years if they can’t find a suitable player to step in and help take the burden from the netminder. With little faith early in the season in Subban, Fleury played in 61 regular-season games last season, his highest total since 2014-15. Subban did improve somewhat and played better in the second half, but it’s likely that Fleury will take on another significant load this season as well.

While 53 points may not be the type of numbers the team was hoping for from Smith, the Golden Knights know that Smith has proven to be a valuable commodity who is a key on the team’s penalty kill and is an excellent playmaker, especially when playing with the top line. McNabb has also been a key player under a cap-friendly deal who is playing solid minutes in the top-four, while providing excellent defense along with 200 hits last year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Mark Stone ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
F Max Pacioretty ($7MM through 2022-23)
D Nate Schmidt ($5.95MM through 2025-26)
F William Karlsson ($5.9MM through 2026-27)
D Shea Theodore ($5.2MM through 2025-26)
F Jon Marchessault ($5MM through 2023-24)
F Alex Tuch ($4.75MM through 2025-26)

It’s hard to believe, but after just two years, the team has its core in tact and locked up for a long time and should be Stanley Cup contenders for the next few years. Stone’s value has only increased in the last year as he completed the team’s quest to have two dominant lines. While the Golden Knights could alter their lines this season, Stone is expected to be a big piece and eventually the face of the franchise in Vegas after being acquired from Ottawa at the trade deadline and then signing a eight-year extension immediately after the trade and at $9.5MM, he may prove a bargain as the 28-year-old posted 33 goals and 73 points during the regular season, but really took off in the playoffs, putting up six goals and 12 points in seven playoff games.

While all the long-term deals look solid, if there is one to scrutinize even closer, it’s the four-year extension that Vegas signed Pacioretty to a year ago. That extension is kicking in this year, but the 30-year-old didn’t bounce back to his 30-goal ways that he had in Montreal in previous seasons. Pacioretty, who scored 30 goals five times in six straight years in Montreal, scored just 22 goals and 40 points in his first year in Vegas, but the team hopes they can get more out of him this year. He did show off more offense in the playoffs as well as he tallied five goals and 11 points in seven games.

The Golden Knights finally locked up Karlsson to a long-term deal, something both sides were hoping for and getting the forward to sign for under $6MM is impressive for the franchise. While the 24-year-old Karlsson saw his goal totals drop from 43 to 24 last season, a drop off was expected and the team believes that with two impressive lines, Karlsson should get more chances to score with less pressure from just top-line defenders.

Schmidt and Theodore should continue to develop and provide top-four defense for many years to come. Theodore in particular is only 24 years old and could break out and develop into a dominant defenseman in the next few years. Tuch took a solid step in his development, scoring 20 goals and 52 points in his second year and if the 23-year-old keeps improving, could be quite the bargain under $5MM in the future.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

F Tomas Tatar ($500K through 2020-21)

Salary Cap Recapture

None

Still To Sign

D Jimmy Schuldt (RFA)

The team might have to free up just a little extra to finally get Schuldt locked up for a number of years, but the top collegiate free-agent this offseason opted to sign with Vegas and could begin his career immediately. With attention from 29 of the 31 teams, many believe that Schuldt will get every opportunity to win a spot on the Golden Knights’ defense and could make his impact right away. After four years at St. Cloud State, he still will have to prove that he can beat out Whitecloud and Hague, but once the RFA signs, he could end up being a big piece to the team’s defensive outlook.

Best Value: Karlsson
Worst Value: Pacioretty

Looking Ahead

The Golden Knights general manager combo of George McPhee and Brad McCrimmon have done an amazing job of putting a team together quickly that is ready to compete immediately and have a chance to compete for many years. At the moment, the team has done a good job of locking up its core and while the team is right up against the cap, it does have a number of players making quite a bit of money while on short-term deals, which could allow the team to continue to upgrade to the team after those deals expire. Throw in a number of younger players who are getting closer and closer to being able to contribute, the team should be in solid shape for quite a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $76,441,539 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Quinn Hughes (two years, $917K)
F Elias Pettersson (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses:

Hughes: $850K
Pettersson: $2.85MM

Pettersson’s deal is certainly quite the bargain.  The Calder Trophy winner burst onto the scene and immediately emerged as one of Vancouver’s top forwards.  While he’s still two years away from his second contract, his agent is undoubtedly keeping an eye on the top end of the current RFA market as Pettersson could very well approach a similar territory on his next deal.  The Canucks elected to burn the first year of Hughes’ deal early to entice him to sign.  He projects to be the type of player that could get a significant second contract although he won’t be eligible for an offer sheet in the 2021 offseason as a result of going this route.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Alex Biega ($825K, UFA)
D Oscar Fantenberg ($850K, UFA)
F Josh Leivo ($1.5MM, UFA)
G Jacob Markstrom ($3.67MM, UFA)
F Tyler Motte ($975K, RFA)
F Tim Schaller ($1.9MM, UFA)
D Troy Stecher ($2.325MM, UFA)
D Chris Tanev ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Jake Virtanen ($1.25MM, RFA)

Up front, Virtanen is the most intriguing of the group.  He has shown flashes of putting it all together and showed some signs of improvement in 2018-19 en route to a career year offensively.  They have enough invested in him that they’ll keep him around but another short-term deal is probably in the cards a year from now.  Leivo will be looking to use his first full season in Vancouver to his advantage and restore some value.  If he can produce at a similar mark as he did with the Canucks last season, he could be an intriguing under the radar UFA next summer.  Schaller’s deal felt like an overpayment as soon as it was signed and it’s safe to say he won’t be re-signed.  He’s a candidate to be on waivers in training camp.  Motte impressed in his first full-season look but is best served in a fourth line role.  That makes him a possible non-tender candidate with some of the youngsters they have in the system but if he is retained, it will need to come with a small raise.

Tanev was once a highly sought after trade candidate.  Since then, his value has dipped considerably as he has had trouble staying healthy.  He has missed at least 27 games in each of the last three seasons and has never played more than 70 in a season.  Players of his type aren’t in as high demand as they were just a few years ago so, at this stage, the 29-year-old may be hard-pressed to match his current deal.  Stecher had a good bounce-back year in the first year of his bridge contract and a repeat performance could see him approach the $3.5MM or more mark on a new deal.  Fantenberg was brought in for depth and given their cap structure, he’ll either be re-signed or replaced by someone willing to take a similar rate.  Biega is in a similar situation; while he has served as capable depth in recent years, he’s not the type of player they’ll want to give a tangible raise to.

Markstrom’s situation is a bit of an intriguing one.  Vancouver has their top goalie prospect now on the roster full-time so they’ll want to give him plenty of playing time.  Accordingly, striving to get the top portion of a platoon may be all that Markstrom can get this season which would certainly be a step down after playing 60 games in each of the last two years.  He’ll be 30 when he hits the open market, young enough that a multi-year deal at a raise is certainly something that would be justifiable for quite a few teams.  However, the Canucks may not be one of them.  There’s a lot at stake for him in 2019-20.

Two Years Remaining

F Sven Baertschi ($3.37MM, UFA)
D Jordie Benn ($2MM, UFA)
G Thatcher Demko ($1.05MM, RFA)
D Alexander Edler ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Brandon Sutter ($4.375MM, UFA)

Sutter’s contract is one that can now be said is going to hurt them.  When they had lots of cap flexibility, it wasn’t as painful but now that they don’t have that luxury, the fact that his performance has been more like a fourth liner is going to hurt.  They’d love to get out from under this deal but they’ll need to attach a notable sweetener to do so.  Pearson struggled badly in Los Angeles and Pittsburgh last year but showed signs of life in Vancouver.  If he can get back to being a 20-goal player, he can get another contract like this one but if not, he’ll be the type of player that will bounce around on one-year deals for a while.  Baertschi battled injury issues yet again.  When healthy, his contract is certainly reasonable but his ability to stay in the lineup will dictate if his next deal will see him get a raise or a pay cut.

Edler eschewed free agency to stay with Vancouver and it stands to reason that someone like Hughes will step into his role two years from now so his next deal (if there is one) should come in cheaper than this one.  Benn had a strong year with Montreal and earned himself a raise in the process but he will need to establish himself as a capable top-four option if he wants to find a way to another salary tier two years from now.

Demko has long been viewed as their goalie of the future.  His next deal could go all sorts of ways as a result.  If he gets lots of playing time over the next two years, he could jump into the $6MM to $7MM range if he fares well.  If Markstrom blocks him this coming season though, a one-year prove-it type of deal could be on the horizon.  It’s also possible that what happens with Pettersson and Hughes could dictate which direction they go with Demko two summers from now.

Three Years Remaining

F Jay Beagle ($3MM, UFA)
F Loui Eriksson ($6MM, UFA)
F Antoine Roussel ($3MM, UFA)

Eriksson has vastly underperformed since joining Vancouver and this offseason, he voiced his frustration over his usage to the point where both sides are looking to find a trade.  Unless they’re willing to take a similarly high-priced deal back in a return though, such a move is unlikely.  Unfortunately for them, the structure of the contract makes a buyout an unrealistic option as well.  Roussel’s deal raised some eyebrows at the time but he actually gave them a reasonable return on it as he had a career-high in points despite missing 17 games.  If he can hang around the 35-point mark while bringing his usual level of physicality, this could be a pretty reasonable contract.  The same can’t be said for Beagle as giving a fourth liner that much money and term was doomed to fail from the start.  If he makes it to the end of this deal without a buyout, it would be a bit of a surprise.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
F J.T. Miller ($5.25MM through 2022-23)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM through 2023-24)

Horvat logged heavy minutes once again last season but not many appreciate just how much he was used; his 20:50 ATOI was 16th in the league amongst forwards.  He also reached the 60-point mark for the first time and considering he’s still just 24, there’s reason for optimism that he can build on that.  He’s positioning himself for a big raise on his next contract.  Tampa Bay was forced to move Miller for salary cap reasons although the Canucks still paid a big price.  He didn’t have a great year with the Lightning but had seasons of 58 and 56 points before that, a level of production that justifies that price tag.  He could give the Canucks a big boost offensively next season.

Myers took advantage of a very thin UFA market and Vancouver’s big need to add to their back end to land his deal.  There are concerns about the end of his contract considering the workload he has had over his career thus far but they should be able to get a few good seasons out of him.  It’s far from a great contract but there are worse ones on this roster.

Buyouts

F Ryan Spooner ($1.33MM through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

G Roberto Luongo ($3.033MM through 2021-22)

Still To Sign

F Brock Boeser
F Nikolay Goldobin

Boeser is one of the more notable RFAs out there although he’s not at the top of the market.  He’s also not eligible for an offer sheet.  Earlier reports suggested that Boeser was seeking $7MM per year with Vancouver coming in at $6MM per with a longer term.  While that means there’s still some work to be done, it serves as a reasonable range to project from and anything in that range will result in them needing to jettison players to get back into cap compliance before even considering Goldobin.  The inconsistent winger actually finished seventh on the team in scoring last season despite not playing in 19 games.  It wouldn’t be surprising if Vancouver was pointing to Virtanen’s deal as a possible comparable but Goldobin may be seeking more than that as his 31 points are more than Virtanen has had in a single season.  No matter what, a short-term deal (no more than two years) is probable just to lessen their salary cap strain.

Best Value: Pettersson (Horvat among non-ELC players)
Worst Value: Eriksson

Looking Ahead

Even if veterans like Schaller and Biega are sent to the minors (pending waivers), there’s a good chance that they’ll need to free up a bit more cap space to fit in new deals for Boeser and Goldobin.  Moving one of Eriksson or Sutter would certainly be preferable but what is GM Jim Benning’s willingness to do so, especially after ceding their 2020 first-rounder (lottery protected that year, unprotected in 2021) to get Miller?

The 2021 offseason will be a huge one with Pettersson, Hughes, and Demko among those needing new deals although they’ll have a good chunk off the books by then as well.  Their long-term flexibility isn’t bad overall with only three contracts extending past three years which is something a lot of organizations don’t have.  That’s cause for optimism down the road although some short-term pain appears to be on the horizon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $76,867,417 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None that are likely to land a full-time spot in the lineup.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Jonny Brodzinski ($700K, UFA)
G Aaron Dell ($1.9MM, UFA)
D Brenden Dillon ($3.27MM, UFA)
D Tim Heed ($960K, UFA)
F Melker Karlsson ($2MM, UFA)
F Kevin Labanc ($1MM, RFA)
D Dalton Prout ($800K, UFA)
F Lukas Radil ($700K, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($675K, UFA)

Labanc’s contract came as one of the big surprises of the offseason.  A forward that puts up 56 points signs quickly for only $1MM?  That will raise some eyebrows.  The idea behind the deal is that it gives the Sharks a bit more short-term flexibility while also opening up the ability to get to salary arbitration where another season like this one could put him into the $4MM range rather quickly.  Karlsson has been a serviceable fourth liner but barring a big improvement offensively, he’ll probably be looking at a pay cut as $2MM for someone in that role is a bit pricey, especially for a team like the Sharks.  Radil did alright in the second half of the season while Brodzinski will look to bounce back from an injury-plagued year.  Given their cap structure, they’ll be re-signed for a similar rate a year from now or replaced by someone who’ll take that amount.

Dillon has been a speculative trade candidate for a while as someone that’s a bit expensive to fill the role he provides.  He’s a capable third pairing player but with the top end of their salary structure, they’ll be looking to fill that with someone cheaper.  Heed likely left a bit of money on the table when he re-signed but he’ll have a shot at a full-time role next season.  Locking that down would have him in line for a nice raise…even if it has to come from somewhere else.  Simek will also be given a chance to play regular minutes, something that wasn’t the case last year.  He’ll be in line for a higher cap hit no matter what as he’s one of the few players with an AAV below the Upper Limit.  Meanwhile, Prout is a more of a roster filler or a placeholder and whoever has that spot a year or two from now should slot in at a similar rate.

Dell hasn’t been able to live up to his performance from his rookie year when he was a high-end backup.  Now, he’s more towards the back end of that scale and is a bit expensive for that role which is why he has also been in trade speculation dating back to last season.  It’s likely that he’ll be replaced by someone cheaper for 2020-21 and beyond.

Two Years Remaining

F Barclay Goodrow ($925K, UFA)
F Marcus Sorensen ($1.5MM, UFA)

After not doing a whole lot over his first two seasons, Sorensen emerged as a reliable secondary scorer last season as he notched 17 goals.  That earned him a nice raise while keeping him affordable for a bottom-six role which is where he’ll likely remain.  If he can keep that type of production up, he’ll be one of the better bargains that they have.  Goodrow is a prototypical fourth liner whose physicality is one of his calling cards.  That will limit his earning potential unless he can find a way to produce more; his career-high in goals in a single season is seven.

Three Years Remaining

F Tomas Hertl ($5.625MM, UFA)

Hertl’s deal looked a little expensive this time a year ago.  While it bought out some UFA time, he still had yet to reach 50 points.  However, those thoughts no longer exist after a career season that saw him finish second on the team in scoring while establishing himself as a top liner.  What seemed a little questionable a year ago now appears to be quite team-friendly.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Brent Burns ($8MM through 2024-25)
F Logan Couture ($8MM through 2026-27)
F Evander Kane ($7MM through 2024-25)
D Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM through 2026-27)
G Martin Jones ($5.75MM through 2023-24)
F Timo Meier ($6MM through 2022-23, RFA at expiry)
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7MM through 2025-26)

Some teams have built their team towards having flexibility in the future.  San Jose is not one of them as these seven will count for $53.25MM per season for at least four more years.

Couture has emerged as a capable top line center and with Joe Pavelski out of the picture, he’s likely going to stay in that role for the foreseeable future.  He’s coming off of a career season and is in the prime of his career so he should be able to provide a strong return on this contract for a while.  Kane didn’t quite produce at the same level he did after being acquired from Buffalo over the final two months of 2017-18 but he nonetheless had his best season since 2011-12.  There is certainly some risk with his contract given how up and down Kane has been over his career but the reward potential is certainly there as well.  Meier’s contract is interesting.  It keeps him a restricted free agent at the end of it but it comes with a $10MM qualifying offer at the end of it.  That means that the $53.25MM price tag will be going a lot higher four years from now.  In the meantime, the winger will be looking to build off his breakout 30-goal campaign.  If he does, this will certainly be well below market value.

Karlsson’s contract is in a league of its own.  Literally.  It’s the richest contract ever given to a defenseman and there is some considerable risk/reward at play.  Karlsson has dealt with considerable injury issues in recent years including some recurring groin trouble last season.  As a result, he had just three goals last year.  On the surface, that seems like quite the overpayment.  On the other hand, he’s still a dangerous playmaker and with some rest over the offseason, he should be ready to go and get closer to the 70 points he has put up four times in his career already.  The back years are going to be rough but Karlsson returning to form should give the Sharks some value from this deal.  If it doesn’t happen though, then this could very well become the worst contract in the league in a hurry.

Burns’ contract looked expensive when it was signed back in 2016 but the Karlsson and Drew Doughty deals make it look a little more reasonable now.  He certainly provided a great return in 2018-19 as he led the team in scoring with 83 points.  However, he’s 34 now and there are six years left on the deal.  Like Karlsson, the back few years could be painful.  Vlasic is a reliable defensive defender but doesn’t bring a lot offensively to the table.  That makes his price tag on the high side but given the success he has had with Burns, it’s understandable why they wanted to commit to him long-term as well.

Jones had a particularly rough season last year.  After playing at a league-average level (even a little bit above at times) for the previous three seasons, his performance was below average for a backup last year.  With five years left on his deal, there is no trade market for Jones so the Sharks will have to wait it out.  If he doesn’t rebound though, this could also be somewhat of an anchor although it isn’t as buyout-prohibitive as some of their other contracts.

Buyouts

D Paul Martin ($1.417MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Hertl
Worst Value: Karlsson

Looking Ahead

With more than $4MM to work with, GM Doug Wilson has some flexibility to work with although most of that is likely to go to Joe Thornton while Patrick Marleau wants to sign there as well.  Both would be one-year deals which gives them the option to put some bonuses in to retain some ability for in-season movement.

However, with the big tickets they have on the books long-term, San Jose is going to be battling cap issues for the foreseeable future.  They’ll be filling out their roster with entry-level deals and affordable veterans and players in that middle tier will eventually be plying their trade elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $72,759,394 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nikolai Prokhorkin (one year, $925K)
F Blake Lizotte (two years, $925K)
F Carl Grundstrom (one year, $925K)
F Rasmus Kupari (three years, $894K)
F Gabriel Vilardi (three years, $894K)
D Kale Clague (two years, $762K)
F Austin Wagner (one year, $759K)
D Sean Walker (one year, $745K)

Potential Bonuses

Prokhorkin: $850K
Lizotte: $850K
Vilardi: $500K
Wagner: $133K
Clague: $133K

With the Kings rebuild in full swing, Los Angeles will be giving plenty of opportunities to their younger players to break out. The team finally was able to convince Prokhorkin to come over from the KHL this offseason. The fourth round pick from 2012 has scored 16 or more goals in four of the past six seasons, including career highs in goals (20) and points (41). The question is whether the 25-year-old can contribute at the NHL level, although the Kings will give him every chance to prove himself. Los Angeles also has high hopes for the 5-foot-9 Lizotte, who the team signed as an undrafted free agent in April out of St. Cloud State where he was one of college’s most offensively skilled players scoring 42 points in 37 games last season. The Kings also have high hopes for Grunstrom, who the team acquired from Toronto in the Jake Muzzin deal. In a brief audition of 15 games with the Kings, the 21-year-old tallied five goals and could prove to be a valuable addition.

The team might also get some help from some of their most recent top picks as Kupari, the team’s 2018 first-round pick, is expected to attend training camp in hopes of earning a spot on the Kings’ opening night roster. The 19-year-old had a breakout season in the Liiga last year, posting 12 goals and 33 points in 43 games. The team still has high hopes for Vilardi, the team’s top pick in 2017, who has missed most of two season with a back injury. With no updates on his status, there are many concerns whether he will ever be healthy enough to be a star in the league. However, if he can prove himself healthy, he could immediately vault himself into a top-six role.

With few veteran options on defense, the team has openings for a couple of their young prospects, including Clague, who spent last season in the AHL and could challenge for a spot this year. Walker had some limited success in 39 games last year, but will have to hold off a number of defensemen to retain his spot.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Tyler Toffoli ($4.6MM, UFA)
D Derek Forbort ($2.53MM, UFA)
F Trevor Lewis ($2MM, UFA)
F Kyle Clifford ($1.6MM, UFA)
F Sheldon Rempal ($874K, RFA)
D Paul Ladue ($825K, UFA)
D Joakim Ryan ($725K, UFA)
F Mario Kempe ($700K, UFA)
G Jack Campbell ($675K, UFA)
D Kurtis MacDermid ($675K, RFA)

Toffoli looked to be on a course to have a big career after a 31-goal season back in 2015-16. However, he hasn’t come that close to equaling that mark since then. He followed that season up with 16 goals, followed by 24 in 2017-18 and then plummeted to just 13 goals last season, his lowest total since his rookie campaign. With one year remaining, the team may be looking to trade off the 27-year-old at the trade deadline as he might be better off with a change of scenery. However, the Kings hope to get him off on the right foot in 2019-20 to increase his trade value. Lewis could also be a trade candidate. The 32-year-old dealt with injuries and appeared in just 44 games last season, but if the veteran could bounce back, he could be a solid trade candidate for depth.

While not an offensive defenseman, Forbort has suddenly become a veteran on a young blueline. The 27-year-old has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time in three straight seasons and is considered to be an important part of the team’s top four. However, the team will have to decide whether he is worthy of a long-term deal as he will be hitting unrestricted free agency for the first time next summer. Perhaps the bargain of the group is goaltender Jack Campbell, who had a breakout season last year when he had to fill in because of injuries. Campbell, who was once the 11th-overall pick back in 2010, looks to have finally figured things out in net, finishing the season with a 2.30 GAA and a .928 save percentage in 31 appearances and could be interesting to watch as the trade deadline nears.

Two Years Remaining

F Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.25MM, UFA)
D Alec Martinez ($4MM, UFA)
F Alex Iafallo ($2.43MM, UFA)
D Daniel Brickley ($700K, RFA)
D Matt Roy ($700K, RFA)

The team was the highest bidder on Kovalchuk during last year’s offseason as they offered the veteran scorer a three-year deal. Unfortunatley, that deal doesn’t look to have worked out as the veteran struggled early and then dealt with injuries. He finished the season with 16 goals and 32 points, but that was way below the production that the Kings had hoped for when they opted to give him a $6.25MM per year deal. The veteran clashed with coaches and often found himself on the bottom-six. Kovalchuk is hoping to rebound as the Kings failed to find a taker this offseason and can only hope that the 36-year-old still has some gas left in the tank.

The team has one of the most reliable defensemen in Martinez, who could be a prime trade candidate and was often brought up in trade talks a year ago until the team moved out Muzzin. While his offense has slipped, he has been a solid top-four defenseman with the Kings for years, finishing with just a minus-two rating, despite the team’s dismal year.

Three Years Remaining

F Dustin Brown ($5.88MM, UFA)
F Jeff Carter ($5.27MM, UFA)
G Calvin Petersen ($858K, RFA)

The team still has a pair of difficult contracts that it is still paying for. Brown, who signed an eight-year, $47MM contract back in 2013, looked like a bust early on in the deal as the veteran struggled to score for a number of years, four of which where he tallied 15 goals or less. However, the 34-year-old found some of those offensive skills again with a 28-goal campaign in 2017-18 and then 22 more last season. If he can keep that up, the team might not complain as much that they are paying a 34-year-old close to $6MM per season.

After dealing with injuries for most of 2017-18, the Kings were hoping to see Carter, one of the team’s leaders, return to form. However, that wasn’t the case as the 34-year-old, who signed an 11-year, $58MM contract back in 2010, posted just 13 goals and 33 points. The team needs the veteran to find his game as his contract has become challenging to move. There were rumors that the Kings were working on a deal to send Carter to Arizona during the offseason, but those talks ended after the Coyotes acquired Phil Kessel instead.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Drew Doughty ($11MM through 2026-27)
F Anze Kopitar ($10MM through 2023-24)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM through 2022-23)

One contract that received quite a bit of criticism was the deal that the Kings handed to Doughty in 2018. However, that deal just kicked in now and after a disappointing campaign last season, that deal is already looking even worse. Despite averaging 26:36 of ice time, the No. 1 defender saw his offensive numbers drop and saw his defensive numbers plummet as he finished in the minus for just the third time in his career at a whopping minus-34. Now 29, the Kings will be forced to pay him until he’s 37 years old, and if the veteran can’t rebound this season, could be a long eight years to be paying a player who makes $11MM per year.

While it was a disastrous year throughout the lineup, Kopitar’s numbers were also a disappointment after he posted a 35-goal season in 2017-18 and was among the NHL leaders in points with 92. He saw those numbers drop to just 22 goals and 60 points and the team will need to see their leader bounce back as they still have five more years of their star under contract. Quick was another player who saw his numbers drop off. The veteran, who has been the fixture to the team’s defense, struggled with injuries, but even when on the ice, the 33-year-old put up a 3.38 GAA and a .888 save percentage in 46 games and didn’t look anything like the superstar goaltender of the past. The team might consider moving him with some quality goalies in the system, but with those numbers the team isn’t likely to give him away at the moment.

Buyouts

D Dion Phaneuf ($2.19MM in 2019-20; $4.06MM in 2020-21; $1.06MM in 2021-22 & 2022-23)

Recapture Penalty

F Mike Richards ($1.32MM in 2019-20)

Still To Sign

F Adrian Kempe

The team must sign Kempe, who has showed flashes of potential as a top-six player, but still finished with just 12 goals, down from the 16 he scored in 2017-18. The team brought in his brother, Mario, in hopes of adding a family element, which they hope will help impact his game on a positive level, but the team believes that Kempe could break out at some point, preferably sooner than later. With no arbitration, however, the two sides are still looking for a suitable contract between the two sides.

Best Value: Martinez
Worst Value: Doughty

Looking Ahead

This is an important year in the team’s rebuilding project, but more than almost any team in the league, the Kings are just hoping to see multiple players rebound and bounce back. A good performance by any player could make it easier for the team to trade off assets at the trade deadline and move that rebuilding stage forward even quicker. However, another season of poor play could send the rebuild back a bit. The especially need to see their core players return to form as players like Kopitar and Doughty must prove that their expensive deals aren’t going to be nightmares this quickly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $79,066,999 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Joakim Nygard (one year, $925K)
F Cooper Marody (two years, $925K)
F Kailer Yamamoto (two years, $894K)
D Evan Bouchard (three years, $894K)
F Tyler Benson (two years, $808K)
D Caleb Jones (one year, $720K)
D Ethan Bear (one year, $720K)

Potential Bonuses

Bouchard: $850K
Yamamoto: $230K
Marody: $75K
Jones: $70K
Bear: $20K

The team have a number of young players on entry-level deals, but so far while there is a ton of potential here, not one player has stepped up and established themselves as a full-time player on the Oilers roster. Yamamoto, the team’s 2017 first-rounder, was expected to provide the speed that the team needed to develop a fast-paced offense, but after 26 NHL games, he’s provided just one goal and four assists. Marody has appeared in six games with no points, while Benson, despite quite a bit of success in the AHL, hasn’t gotten a chance at the NHL level, although that’s likely to change this season. The team also has high hopes in Nygard, who is a speedy winger, who is coming off a 21-goal campaign in the SHL, but remains a mystery.

On defense, the team might get their 2018 first-round pick, Evan Bouchard, to make the team and contribute quickly, but he also must prove to the team that he’s ready for that opportunity. However, Bouchard already has seven games of experience with the Oilers (scoring one goal), while posting three goals and eight points for the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL in eight playoff games. Other defenseman might also be ready, including Bear and Jones. Bear has played two seasons now in the AHL, while Jones got 17 games with the Oilers last season and might be the most NHL-ready.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Darnell Nurse ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Gagner ($3.15MM, UFA)
D Brandon Manning ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Zack Kassian ($1.95MM, UFA)
D Matt Benning (1.9MM, RFA)
F Markus Granlund ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Kyle Brodziak ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Josh Archibald ($1MM, UFA)
D Joel Persson ($1MM, RFA)
F Tomas Jurco ($750K, UFA)
F Colby Cave ($675K, RFA)

The bulk of the Oilers contracts seem to be one-year deals, which means that many players will have to prove to the Edmonton front office that they deserve a new contract. The team will likely unload the contracts of both Gagner and Manning after this season, which should free up $5.4MM of cap space. The Oilers traded for the veteran Gagner near the trade deadline and he contributed five goals and 10 points in 25 games for Edmonton, but he likely will take a bottom-line role with Oilers this season, while Manning has never been a good fit after being acquired from the Blackhawks in December last season. Smith is another veteran the Oilers have high hopes for, but the team will reassess its goaltending situation at the end of the year and whether to bring the then 38-year-old back for another season. The same can be said for players like Archibald, Granlund and Jurco.

The team will have pay up next season for Nurse, a restricted free agent, who put up career-high numbers last season with the Oilers. The 24-year-old put up 10 goals and 41 points and averaged 23:49 of time on the ice. He also blocked 146 shots, while adding 162 hits as well, making him a solid all-around player despite seeing his plus-minus drop from a plus-15 in 2017-18 to a minus-five last year. The team must decide whether to keep Benning, who will also be a restricted free agent. Benning saw his playing time drop by almost three minutes since the previous year and might lose his job to some of the team’s young defensive prospects.

The team also have a number of veteran players, who will hit unrestricted free agency, including Kassian, who saw career highs in ATOI (14:48) and goals (15) and also put up 191 hits as a bottom-line forward for the team. At 28, he could be considered an important keeper for the Oilers. Unfortunately, Brodziak’s success in Edmonton wasn’t as impressive as the veteran center averaged just 11:42 of ATOI, while scoring career low six goals and nine points.

Two Years Remaining

F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4.17MM, UFA)
D Kris Russell ($4MM, UFA)
F Alex Chiasson ($2.15MM, UFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($1.2MM, RFA)

This could be an interesting year for Nugent-Hopkins, who has always been an excellent defensive player, but now has established himself as a solid offensive player as well with a career-high 28 goals and 69 points. However with his contract coming up in two years, the Oilers might want to decide whether he is worth handing a long-term, expensive deal to. If they aren’t ready to lock him up, the Oilers might get the most value for Nugent-Hopkins at the trade deadlines. After all, top-six centers rarely come available and considering that any team that trades for him automatically gets another full season out of him, he might become quite a valuable trade chip.

The Oilers must also decide what they want to do with two of their highly-paid defensemen in Larsson and Russell. Both blueliners receive more than 20 minutes a night, but neither provides much offensive talent and haven’t been that helpful lately on defense either and between the two of them, the Oilers are giving them $8.17MM. Larsson put up comparable offensive numbers last year, but saw his defensive numbers drop as his minus-28 plus-minus was his lowest in his career by far. Russell also had comparable numbers from the last couple of years and kept his plus-minus in the positive, but the team may look to find a taker for either of them at the trade deadline.

Chiasson earned his two-year deal after posting a career-high 22 goals last season after winning a job in training camp on a PTO. The team hopes that the 28-year-old can duplicate that season. Khaira scored just three goals last season and will have to prove that he belongs on the roster next season.

Three Years Remaining

G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)

Edmonton surprised many when former general manager Peter Chiarelli signed Koskinen to a three-year, $13.5MM extension last season despite a small sample size as an NHL goaltender. Koskinen didn’t fare that well in the second half of the season after signing the extension, putting up a 3.07 GAA and a .902 save percentage, which could make this a rocky relationship if Koskinen can’t prove to Edmonton that he is a No. 1 goaltender. The 31-year-old goaltender has spent most of his career in the KHL and may not be the answer that the Oilers were hoping for.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Connor McDavid ($12.5MM through 2025-26)
F Leon Draisaitl ($8.5MM through 2024-25)
F James Neal ($5.75MM through 2022-23)
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM through 2022-23)

The team has a couple of stud players in McDavid and Draisaitl and most would suggest that they are worth their contracts and they might even be bargains considering how well they were playing. Both have proven to be top-line players and they both broke the 100-point barrier last season and combining for 91 goals. The fact that both are locked up for at least another six years (seven for McDavid) shows that Edmonton already has a base of two franchise players and just need to fill out the rest of their roster with solid players who can fill out the rest of the team.

Neal is an interesting gamble by new general manager Ken Holland. The team was looking for a way to unload the untradeable contract of Milan Lucic, but managed to get the long-term deal of Neal, who is coming off 10 straight seasons of 20 goals or more, before his seven-goal performance last year in Calgary. The team hopes that the 31-year-old can prove that last year’s egg was just a fluke and the veteran can bounce back and provide some scoring on the wing for a team that really needs it.

Klefbom is another interesting defenseman, who the team hopes can improve, especially offensively. The 26-year-old managed 38 points back in the 2016-17 season, but has hasn’t been able to break 30 points since then. While his minutes are impressive, Edmonton needs to get more from one of their defensemen, who they signed assuming he would develop into a top-line defender.

Buyouts

D Andrej Sekera ($2.5MM in 2019-20 & 2020-21; $1.5MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23)
F Benoit Pouliot ($1.33MM per year through 2020-21)
D Eric Gryba ($300K in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Milan Lucic ($750K per year through 2022-23)

Still To Sign

F Jesse Puljujarvi

Much has already been written about the impasse between the Oilers and Puljujarvi, who has demanded to be traded because he believes he can’t become a top forward in Edmonton. Holland has received no viable offers from other NHL teams and it looks likely that Puljujarvi might have to stay overseas for a season and hope that he can develop his game overseas with Karpat of the Finnish League and come back in a year with a new sense of purpose. However, nothing has happened yet and there’s always a possibility that he opts to come back to Edmonton and tries it again. The only problem: he’s not waiver exempt anymore, meaning he must stay on Edmonton’s roster or be placed on waivers and undoubtedly would be claimed by another team.

Best Value: Draisaitl
Worst Value: Koskinen

Looking Ahead

The team has its franchise players and with plenty of cap space freeing up next season, the team might have a way to add even more talent. However, what Edmonton needs more than anything is to see some of their young talent take that next step and begin making some major improvements. The Oilers have a dearth of talent on defense that should slowly be trickling in over the next few years, but more than anything Edmonton needs scoring. While McDavid and Draisaitl cost the franchise a great deal, the team must find the wingers that can get the team back into the playoffs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Calgary Flames

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Hit: $73,743,375 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Rasmus Andersson (one year, $756K)
D Oliver Kylington (one year, $731K)
D Juuso Valimaki (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Andersson: $57.5K
Kylington: $82.5K
Valimaki: $450K

These three players project to be a big part of Calgary’s back end in the near future but only Andersson has a full NHL season under his belt.  Accordingly, he’ll likely wind up with the biggest second contract among the three but it shouldn’t break the bank.  Valimaki, a 2017 first-rounder, probably has the most overall upside of the group but he still has to lock down a full-time NHL spot first.  Assuming they don’t go and add a veteran depth piece.  There were questions surrounding Kylington going back to his draft year which caused him to slide but he has shown some NHL upside as well.  He’ll also get a chance to push for a full-time spot this coming season.  At this stage, short-term post-ELC deals are likely on the horizon for all three.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D T.J. Brodie ($4.6504MM, UFA)
F Austin Czarnik ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Michael Frolik ($4.3MM, UFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($3.857MM, UFA)
F Mark Jankowski ($1.675MM, RFA)
G Cam Talbot ($2.75MM, UFA)

Frolik has been part of trade speculation for quite a while now after his agent opted to up the pressure on Calgary for a perceived lack of playing time.  While he hasn’t really been able to live up to the offensive potential he showed as a youngster, he has still been an effective middle-six forward.  However, given what transpired last year plus their cap situation, he’s a prime candidate to be dealt and won’t be able to land similar money on his next deal.  Jankowski followed up his rookie year with a decent sophomore campaign as he set a new career-best in points despite playing less than 13 minutes a night.  Unless his role increases, another short-term pact (this time with arbitration rights) could be on the horizon next summer.  Czarnik was one of two Group VI UFAs that landed surprisingly rich deals in free agency last summer and like Matthew Peca in Montreal, this didn’t really pan out well as Czarnik struggled to hold down a regular spot in the lineup and was frequently on the fourth line when he was in.  Unless he takes a step forward in 2019-20, he’ll be in tough to match his current AAV.

Calgary was reported to be listening to offers on both Brodie and Hamonic earlier this summer.  It’s not that they’re not pleased with their play but rather facing the reality of their situation.  The odds of keeping both beyond this season are low.  The cost to sign both will be considerably higher than their current price tag and they do have the youngsters that will be pushing for more minutes before too long.  And, of course, there’s the fact that they still need to clear salary.  A strong season from Brodie could push him towards the $5.5MM-$6MM range while one from Hamonic would push him closer to $5MM as his offensive upside (or relative lack thereof) limits his ceiling in terms of a big contract.

Talbot signed a one-year deal with the hopes that he can take over the starting job (or least get the higher split of a platoon workload) in an effort of restoring some value around the league.  He spent most of last season behind a poor defense in Edmonton and now comes to a strong unit in Calgary so there’s a good chance his numbers will rebound accordingly.  However, if he doesn’t do enough to show that he can be a legitimate starter, his next deal probably won’t be much higher than this one.

Two Years Remaining

F Sam Bennett ($2.55MM, UFA)
G David Rittich ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Derek Ryan ($3.125MM, UFA)

Bennett continues to be a perplexing player.  He has shown flashes of being an impact player over the years but has also had stretches of play where he didn’t move the needle much.  The end result is three nearly identical underwhelming seasons which has resulted in another bridge deal.  More repeat performances will only add to trade speculation but if he puts it together, a much better contract could be on the horizon.  Ryan managed to equal his output from his career year with Carolina despite averaging two minutes less of ice time per night.  He’s an effective third liner but it’s hard to see him getting much more than he is now when his contract is up.

Rittich surprised many last season by staking claim to the number one spot for several stretches although he struggled a bit in the second half.  Given his limited track record, Calgary opted for this short-term deal.  If Rittich can lock down the number one job for these two seasons, he could double his AAV on the open market but if he stays in a platoon role, he will largely be capped like Talbot in terms of what his earning upside may be.

Three Years Remaining

F Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75MM, UFA)
F Mark Giordano ($6.75MM, UFA)

Gaudreau bypassed the bridge contract and opted to sign what was at the time considered to be a pretty big post-ELC deal just before the 2016 regular season started.  With only two full years of NHL experience under his belt, the signing was considered to be a little bit of a risk even though he was coming off a near point-per-game season.  Now, as RFA contracts have exploded, it’s turned into a pretty good bargain after Gaudreau took his offensive game to another level last season.  He should be pushing for $10MM or more three years from now.

Giordano was a late bloomer but has certainly blossomed into a legitimate number one defenseman and was a worthy recipient of the Norris Trophy.  Certainly, his deal has to be considered as well below market value after seeing what some of his peers have signed for in recent years.  His contract was once held as the standard in terms of how much their top-paid player could make but that’s highly likely to change in the near future.  Having said all that, it’s unlikely that Giordano will get much more than this on his next deal, if there is a next deal.  He’ll be turning 39 in October of 2022 when his next contract would kick in and while he’s the type of player that could still be an impact defender at that time, it’s hard to imagine him still being able to log 24+ minutes a night.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Mikael Backlund ($5.35MM through 2023-24)
D Noah Hanifin ($4.95MM through 2023-24)
F Elias Lindholm ($4.85MM through 2023-24)
F Milan Lucic ($5.25MM through 2022-23)*
F Sean Monahan ($6.375MM through 2022-23)

* – Edmonton is retaining the other 12.5% of Lucic’s contract

Monahan has emerged as a legitimate number one center and is at a price tag that second liners are starting to get.  He might not be able to hit double-digits in terms of per-season salary but he could come close four years from now.  Lindholm, the other player alongside Monahan and Gaudreau, had a career year and is making that deal appear to be very team-friendly.  Like Monahan, he’ll still be in his 20’s when he reaches the open market and at this point, he’ll be seeking a significant raise.  Backlund has settled in nicely behind Monahan on the depth chart and is a dependable two-way center.  He’s not a bargain at that price tag but he certainly isn’t overpaid either.  He’ll be 35 when his deal is up so this could wind up being his highest-priced contract.

Then there’s Lucic.  His signing with Edmonton can only be classified as disastrous.  Calgary is clearly banking that a change of scenery can get him going but even at that, it’s still going to be a drag on their books for the next four years.  The structure of his deal makes a buyout rather prohibitive so he’s probably going to play the deal out.

While Hanifin may not become the true number one defender that his draft status might suggest, he continued to show improvement last season and should easily slot in as a number two or three for their long-term future.  Getting someone in that role for that long is certainly a bargain.

Buyouts

F Troy Brouwer ($1.5MM per year through 2021-22)
D Michael Stone ($1.167MM per year through 2020-21)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Andrew Mangiapane
F Matthew Tkachuk

Tkachuk is one of the more prominent players in this RFA class and as he has established himself as a high-quality power forward, he’s in line for one of the bigger deals in the weeks to come.  In doing so, he will almost assuredly exceed Giordano and Gaudreau’s $6.75MM threshold and will quite likely put the Flames back over the Upper Limit even with Stone’s recent buyout.  As for Mangiapane, he impressed over his part season but he doesn’t have much in the way of leverage.  In order to trim as little from the roster as possible, Calgary will likely want to pursue a one-year pact at or around his $766.5K qualifying offer.

Best Value: Gaudreau
Worst Value: Lucic

Looking Ahead

In the short term, there’s clearly some work that still needs to be done.  They will need to free up some extra payroll room for their remaining RFAs and will almost assuredly be tiptoeing around the Upper Limit in 2019-20.  They have a decent chunk of money coming off the books which will give them a bit of flexibility next summer although they’ll have a few important spots that they’ll need to fill with that money.  While things may not be quite as tight after this season, don’t expect the Flames to have plenty of salary cap space for quite a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Arizona Coyotes

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Arizona Coyotes

Current Cap Hit: $81,321,901 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Christian Fischer (one year, $822K)
F Barrett Hayton (three years, $894K)
F Clayton Keller (one year, $886K)

Potential Bonuses

Fischer: $212.5K
Hayton: $1.35MM
Keller: $850K

Keller took a considerable step back in his second NHL season, dropping from 67 points to 45.  A comparable performance could have him in line for a bridge contract a year from now but if he shows some chemistry with newly-acquired winger Phil Kessel, he could have a big boost in output next season to make him one of the top restricted free agents of the 2020 class.  How they get paid will largely be determined by what happens over the coming weeks to the current RFA class but right now, his next deal could range from anywhere from around $4MM on a short-term pact to twice that much on a contract that buys out some UFA eligibility, something the Coyotes have preferred based on recent history.

Fischer is also coming off of a rough season, recording just 18 points in 71 games, well off his 33 from the year before.  He’s more of a secondary piece on their roster so a short-term second contract is likely on the horizon.  Hayton briefly made the Coyotes last season (spending one day with them before being returned to junior) and as their consensus top prospect, he’ll likely get a long look in training camp.  Even if he does make the team though, it’s too early to forecast what his post-ELC contract will look like.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Vinnie Hinostroza ($1.5MM, RFA)
G Darcy Kuemper ($1.85MM, UFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($874K, RFA)
F Brad Richardson ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Carl Soderberg ($4.75MM, UFA)

Hinostroza’s first season in Arizona was a successful one as he became a consistent top-six forward.  The Coyotes hoped that he’d be able to become a part of their young core when they got him and he’s trending in that direction.  He’s technically on his bridge deal but could still sign another short-term pact and still have RFA rights and given their longer-term cap outlook, that’s a likely outcome.  Soderberg was brought in to provide some extra depth down the middle and is coming off a resurgent season with Colorado that saw him collect 49 points.  A repeat performance could have him pushing for a similar price tag a year from now but if he reverts back to his play from the previous two years, he’ll be looking at a notable pay cut.  Richardson tied for the team lead in goals last season which made him one of the better bargains on the team.  It’s unrealistic to expect him to produce like that again but he still should be looking at a raise on his next deal.

Lyubushkin accepted his qualifying offer after an up-and-down rookie campaign.  He’s clearly no higher than seventh on the depth chart and if his price tag goes much higher, they’ll likely move on from him.  Kuemper wound up having a stellar season, one that saw him thrive with a number one workload on the way to posting a career year.  He won’t get as much playing time in 2019-20 but there will be teams remembering his performance when he hits the open market in July where he’ll land a decent raise.

Two Years Remaining

D Jason Demers ($3.9375MM, UFA)*
F Conor Garland ($775K, RFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($5.475MM, UFA)
F Michael Grabner ($3.35MM, UFA)
D Niklas Hjalmarsson ($5MM, UFA)
F Marian Hossa ($5.275MM, UFA)
D Jordan Oesterle ($1.4MM, UFA)
G Antti Raanta ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Derek Stepan ($6.5MM, UFA)

* – Florida is retaining the other 12.5% of Demers’ contract

This is where the bulk of Arizona’s commitments are.  Let’s get Hossa out of the way first.  He won’t play again and will go on LTIR if the Coyotes need to free up extra room.  However, the risk in doing so is that it would set them up for the possibility of having to carry over any bonus overage penalties into 2020-21.

Stepan had a very disappointing season and only managed a career-low 35 points.  They were hoping he could be their number one center but it hasn’t happened.  At this point, it’s hard to envision him landing $6.5MM on his next contract.  Grabner was reasonably productive when he was healthy last year but he missed half of the season due to injury.  His speed is a big weapon now and his ability to maintain that will ultimately determine if he gets another deal in this price range down the road or if he’ll be looking at a cut as well.  Garland has his flaws but has shown an ability to score in his limited NHL experience.  If he produces like he did last season (a 23-goal pace over a full season), this could be a nice bargain for the Coyotes.

Goligoski was yet another player whose production dipped considerably as his output was the lowest since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign.  He has settled into more of a second pairing role and considering he’ll be 36 when his next contract kicks in, he’ll be hard-pressed to get a raise two years from now.  Hjalmarsson doesn’t put up many points but the Coyotes liked his defensive presence enough to give him this deal a year ago.  Even so, he’ll be 34 two years from now and as the league trends towards more skill on the back end, that doesn’t bode well for his chances.  Demers battled injuries last season but is a serviceable fourth or fifth defender when healthy.  His $4.5MM price tag (between the two teams) isn’t enough to justify that.  Oesterle took advantage of being a regular for the first time and posted a career year.  Maintaining that over the next couple of years would give him a much better track record for teams as he enters the open market for the first time.

Raanta, when healthy, has played well for the most part in recent years (despite some struggles last season).  The Coyotes clearly believe he can be a starter but he has still played more than 30 games in a single season just once.  If he wants a chance to beat (or even equal) his current deal two years from now, he’ll need to stay healthy and help lead this team to the postseason.

Three Years Remaining

F Lawson Crouse ($1.533MM, RFA)
F Phil Kessel ($6.8MM, UFA)*

* – Toronto is paying the other 15% of Kessel’s contract

Kessel was brought in this summer to give Arizona a legitimate top-line forward with a track record of production.  He immediately becomes the best scoring threat they’ve had in quite some time.  However, his all-around game has long been questioned and he’ll be turning 35 at the start of the 2022-23 season which will be his next contract.  Accordingly, he probably will struggle to land an $8MM deal in free agency.  Crouse held his own in a bottom six role last season but has developed slowly thus far.  The three-year bridge deal gives the team some time to see if he can progress into a legitimate top-six threat.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Jakob Chychrun ($4.6MM through 2024-25)
F Christian Dvorak ($4.45MM through 2024-25)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($8.25MM through 2026-27)
F Nick Schmaltz ($5.85MM through 2025-26)

Schmaltz was the return in the somewhat-questioned trade with Chicago that saw Dylan Strome and Brendan Perlini go to Chicago.  Clearly, GM John Chayka has plenty of confidence in him considering that extension was signed only a few months after the trade.  He was productive during his limited time with Arizona (injuries limited him to 17 games) while he played at a 50-point pace overall.  There is some risk to this deal given the lack of track record but there is some potential for reward as well.  Dvorak’s contract was a big surprise considering he was coming off a pair of seasons with 15 goals.  Clearly, they’re banking on him taking a step forward although injuries limited him to just 20 games last season.  Right now though, that deal looks to be on the expensive side.

Last offseason, Ekman-Larsson was looking like he’d be one of the top defenders available in free agency but instead, he opted to sign the extension.  For the next few years, the high price tag shouldn’t be an issue as he’s a legitimate number one defender but as he ages, it could become a bit of an overpayment (although that can be said about a lot of long-term extensions given to pending UFAs).  Chychrun has had trouble staying healthy in his career as he has missed at least 14 games in each of his first three seasons.  That creates some risk with the deal but when healthy, he’s a legitimate top-four defender that’s locked in at a pretty good rate.

Buyouts

F Mike Ribeiro ($1.944MM, final year)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Kuemper
Worst Value: Dvorak

Looking Ahead

Seeing Arizona potentially being in cap trouble is something we’re not used to seeing.  Moving Hossa to LTIR will help but if bonuses are hit, that will hurt them for next season at a time where they’re going to need a lot of room for a new deal for Keller (and potentially Kuemper if they’d like to keep their goalie tandem intact).

The good news is that the crunch is going to be relatively short.  Two summers from now, a lot of big-ticket contracts will be off the books and not a lot of those players will be in line for raises.  That will give Chayka plenty of flexibility to work with and accordingly, expect a lot of turnover to come at that time.  Some short-term cap pain is on the horizon but they’ll be in good shape before too long.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Anaheim Ducks

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Anaheim Ducks

Current Cap Hit: $72,999,758 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Brendan Guhle (one year, $697.5K)
D Jacob Larsson (one year, $894K)
F Sam Steel (two years, $863K)
F Troy Terry (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses

Guhle: $132.5K
Terry: $850K

The Ducks have several quality young players at their disposal but not a lot of vacant roster spots to work with so there could very well be a shuffle back and forth between Anaheim and AHL San Diego.

Steel and Terry both spent at least a quarter of last season with the Ducks and figure to get a long look at training camp.  Terry, in particular, should push for a bottom-six role which shouldn’t have him in line for a significantly larger contract a year from now.  Steel has a chance to push for a better spot which could push his price tag higher if he can produce inside the top six with regularity.

On the back end, Larsson spent more than half of last year in Anaheim and if that happens again, he should get a bit of a raise on his next deal even if he does spend some time in the minors still as he’d be pushing 100 games of NHL experience.  Guhle is likely to be in the sixth or seventh role but while it would be his first real extended look in the NHL, that type of role only lends itself towards a one-year deal for next season at a marginal raise.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Michael Del Zotto ($750K, UFA)
F Nicolas Deslauriers ($950K, UFA)
F Patrick Eaves ($3.15MM, UFA)
F Derek Grant ($750K, UFA)
D Jani Hakanpaa ($850K, UFA)
D Korbinian Holzer ($850K, UFA)
G Ryan Miller ($1.125MM, UFA)
F Devin Shore ($2.3MM, RFA)
F Daniel Sprong ($750K, RFA)

Potential Bonuses

Miller: $1.2MM

There aren’t really any impact players in this group.  Eaves missed almost all of last season due to injury and may not play in 2019-20.  In that case, he’ll be on LTIR and not brought back.  Shore has shown some flashes of offensive upside but with three straight seasons between 29 and 33 points, he shouldn’t be looking at a big raise a year from now.  Deslauriers and Grant are veterans that are earmarked for the fourth line or depth spots and will likely be replaced by prospects at the expiration of their deals (if not sooner).

Similarly, Del Zotto and Holzer are basically placeholders for their prospects.  Both can hold their own on the third pairing but in the event either is retained for 2020-21, it should be at a similar price tag.  They surprisingly gave Hakanpaa a one-way deal despite the fact that the 27-year-old struggled several years ago in the AHL and didn’t exactly dominate in Finland.  However, he’s probably a depth signing as well that can be retained or replaced at that price.  Miller provides the Ducks with a capable veteran presence in the backup role assuming he stays healthy.  At 39, it’s safe to say he’s not in their long-term plans.

Two Years Remaining

F Ryan Getzlaf ($8.25MM, UFA)
F Ondrej Kase ($2.6MM, RFA)
F Nick Ritchie ($1.498MM, RFA)
F Carter Rowney ($1.133MM, UFA)
G Anthony Stolarz ($750K, UFA)

Getzlaf has been Anaheim’s top forward for a long time now and even led them in scoring last season despite missing 15 games.  His days of being a top centre are basically over although that’s likely the role that the 34-year-old will have heading into next season.  It’s certainly quite possible that the Ducks will look to retain Getzlaf when his contract expires but with diminishing returns (and perhaps by then, a lesser role), any new deal would have to come at a considerable pay cut.  He’ll have spent 16 years with the organization by the time his deal is up and the idea of playing his entire career with one team certainly has to be appealing.

Kase battled injury issues last season but was quite productive when he was in the lineup, collecting 20 points in just 30 games.  He’s likely to see a fair bit of top six time next season and if he can continue to produce at that rate, he could be coming close to doubling his current AAV when he hits restricted free agency with arbitration rights.  Ritchie quietly held out until early into last season before signing but the lull didn’t hurt too badly as he set a new career-best in points.  If he can creep closer to the 40-50 point mark, he’ll get a big jump on his $2MM qualifier in 2020-21.  Rowney is a capable fourth liner but will probably be replaced from within when his deal is up while Stolarz appears to be the favorite to succeed Miller as the backup goalie when the veteran retires.  They may be able to afford a more expensive backup two years from now though so he may not be part of the long-term picture either.

Three Years Remaining

F Ryan Kesler ($6.875MM, UFA)
D Hampus Lindholm ($5.206MM, UFA)
D Josh Manson ($4.1MM, UFA)
F Rickard Rakell ($3.789MM, UFA)

Kesler underwent hip surgery back in May and his playing future is very much in question.  He’s not expected to play at all in 2019-20 and will be LTIR-bound but it’s quite possible that he has played his last NHL game.  While Rakell is coming off of a down year, he has already considerably outperformed his contract and should be in the $6MM-$7MM range on his next pact if he can get back to his output from the previous two seasons.

There’s a case to be made that Lindholm is Anaheim’s top all-around blueliner and getting a top pairing player at that price is quite a bargain.  He’ll be 28 and in the prime of his career when he hits the open market so it’s quite possible that he garners something closer to $8MM on his next contract.  Manson is still largely under the radar but has emerged as a capable second-pairing defender.  He showed some flashes of offense back in 2017-18 and will need to do so more consistently if he wants to get into that next tier of salaries.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Cam Fowler ($6.5MM through 2025-26)
G John Gibson ($6.4MM through 2026-27)
F Adam Henrique ($5.825MM through 2023-24)
F Jakob Silfverberg ($5.25MM through 2023-24)

While Henrique and Silfverberg’s deals can’t be classified as extreme overpays, they’re also far from great value.  Both players have shown flashes of top-six production but have yet to provide it consistently.  Having the two locked up at over $11MM could be tough to navigate when their cap situation gets tighter down the road.

Fowler’s production has never really reached the levels that Anaheim was hoping for but he is nonetheless still a capable top pairing player.  As salaries for top-end blueliners soar, having him locked in at this rate is a bit of a bargain.

The biggest bargain could ultimately be Gibson, however.  He singlehandedly kept the Ducks in it through the first half of last season before fading a bit down the stretch.  Recent contracts for Sergei Bobrovsky ($10MM) and Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5MM) have been for considerably more than Gibson’s AAV despite Gibson being pretty close to being in that tier of netminders.  Over the next few years, he’ll eventually become one of the lower-paid starters in the league.

Buyouts

D Simon Despres ($663K per year payable through 2024-25; cap-exempt per CapFriendly)
F Corey Perry ($2.625MM in 2019-20, $6.625MM in 2020-21, $2MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Gibson
Worst Value: Kesler

Looking Ahead

With roughly $8.5MM in cap room for 2019-20 plus the ability to put Kesler and likely Eaves on LTIR, cap space won’t be an issue at all for Anaheim next season.  However, the extra $4MM on Perry’s buyout will hurt their flexibility for the following year.  (Considering their cap space, it’s fair to wonder now if they’d have just been better off keeping Perry for this season and look at a buyout next summer when it wouldn’t have been quite so cap-prohibitive.)

While they don’t have much in the way of expiring contracts coming off the books, there aren’t any prominent players that will need new deals next summer.  Anaheim can simply bring some of their prospects into those spots currently occupied by depth players and perhaps even save a bit of cap room in the process.  Kase and Ritchie should be more expensive two years from now but Getzlaf’s expiring deal should give them some extra wiggle room there.

For years, Anaheim’s cap situation has been a bit of a juggling act.  All of a sudden, they actually have a little bit of stability in that regard.  They’re far from being in great shape long-term but they no longer are in a place where they’ll have to cut from their current roster in order to keep other players in the fold.  That’s a good step in the right direction for the Ducks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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