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Poll: Which Free Agent Contract Will Be Regretted The Most?

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Two years ago the unrestricted free agent was flooded with aging players who still looked like they might have a few effective seasons left in them. That led teams to get into bidding wars and overpay, hoping that they could inject some production into the lineup while dealing with the consequences later down the line. Unfortunately, most of these contracts blew up immediately and provided very little value.

The biggest contracts given out in the first few days of the 2016 UFA market were as follows:

Milan Lucic (EDM) – Seven years, $42MM

Kyle Okposo (BUF) – Seven years, $42MM

Andrew Ladd (NYI) – Seven years, $38.5MM

Loui Eriksson (VAN) – Six years, $36MM

Frans Nielsen (DET) – Six years, $31.5MM

David Backes (BOS) – Five years, $30MM

Jason Demers (FLA) – Five years, $22.5MM

Troy Brouwer (CGY) – Four years, $18MM

Mikkel Boedker (SJS) – Four years, $16MM

That list is uninspiring to say the least, with two of the players having already been traded and a third who was bought out this offseason. Some of the others are among the worst contracts in the league relative to their production, something that can be said a few seasons out of basically every UFA season. This year may be no different, though there seemed to be more talent available.

Here is a list of the biggest contracts handed out this time around:

John Tavares (TOR) – Seven years, $77MM

James van Riemsdyk (PHI) – Five years, $35MM

James Neal (CGY) – Five years, $28.75MM

Paul Stastny (VGK) – Three years, $19.5MM

Ilya Kovalchuk (LAK) – Three years, $18.75MM

Calvin de Haan (CAR) – Four years, $18.2MM

Jack Johnson (PIT) – Five years, $16.25MM

David Perron (STL) – Four years, $16MM

Tyler Bozak (STL) – Three years, $15MM

While there is an obvious difference at the very top, it does seem like teams were wary to hand out six or seven year contracts to forwards approaching or at 30 years of age. van Riemsdyk and Neal especially would have ranked among the very best available in 2016, and likely would have been able to negotiate seven-year contracts along the lines of Lucic and Okposo. Still, not all of these deals will be looked back upon fondly. Even two years from now teams may be considering trades or buyouts to get out from under the cap hit, or stuck in purgatory hoping for a bounce-back campaign.

Which contract do you think will be regretted the most? Is Tavares’ mega-deal going to bite the Maple Leafs when they need to re-sign their young forward group? Will Kovalchuk bolt for the KHL again and leave the Kings holding his big cap hit? Will van Riemsdyk be able to take on more responsibility in Philadelphia and live up to his big number?

Cast your vote below and explain why you think the contract will be regretted. If you think someone else deserves the title—perhaps an Islanders or Canucks signing?—make sure to leave a comment to include them in the conversation.

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Negotiation Notes: Arbitration Hearings, Nylander, Islanders

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Two more players sat down for arbitration hearings today, as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that neither the Ottawa Senators and Cody Ceci nor the Dallas Stars and Gemel Smith were able to come to terms beforehand. Both situations bear watching over the next 48 hours, as they must agree to a deal in that window or else get stuck with the arbitrator’s award. Ceci’s case is similar to that of the Winnipeg Jets’ Jacob Trouba, which went through to a decision earlier this off-season. Both Ceci and Trouba filed at a number that shares few reasonable comparisons – Trouba at $7MM and Ceci at $6MM. While Trouba’s side likely tried to use several recent cases of offensive-minded defenseman who settled for $5.5MM and then argue that he is the superior defensive player, Ceci does not have the comparable offense to make as strong a case. As such, he is unlikely to get the $5.5MM award that Trouba landed, the midpoint of his case. Instead, look for Ceci to get somewhere in the $4-4.5MM range. Smith’s is a much different scenario, similar to another previously decided case this summer, that of Calgary Flames defenseman Brett Kulak. In both cases, the team offered only a minimum, two-way contract while the player filed at a higher value for a one-way deal –  Kulak at $1.15MM and Smith at $900K. While Kulak was able to land a $850K one-way deal from the arbitrator, he also played in 71 games in the platform year, while Smith only suited up for 46. Smith faces a far tougher argument that he is a bona fide NHL player at this point in his career.

  • Restricted free agent William Nylander continues to negotiate with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but the explosive young forward is not interested in a short-term bridge deal. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox suggests that Nylander is only talking about a long-term deal right now. While the Leafs might be trying to play it safe, with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner also in need of extensions next summer (along with the majority of their roster), Nylander doesn’t seem willing to take a bridge deal only to watch his fellow budding stars sign long-term contracts instead. Nylander may have hit restricted free agency earlier than Matthews and Marner, but the trio all have similar games played and points since Nylander only played in 22 games with Toronto in his first season before the other two joined the squad. All three have been remarkably consistent early on and, given their similarities, it is hard to blame Nylander for wanting a long-term deal when he knows that Matthews and Marner are likely to get them.
  • While it makes sense that the New York Islanders have focused on adding forwards and a new goaltender this season, after losing superstar center John Tavares and starting goalie Jaroslav Halak to free agency, Newsday’s Andrew Gross thinks it’s strange that the team has not added to the blue line at all. The team re-signed Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock, but have added no one else while losing Calvin de Haan and opting not to bring back Brandon Davidson and Dennis Seidenberg. Gross notes that recently re-signed center Brock Nelson, an impending free agent, could be used as a trade chip to add to a blue line that struggled greatly last season. There are certainly teams out there with a plethora of defensemen who could use Nelson up front. The Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, and Winnipeg Jets are clubs that fit the bill, but Nelson would not be nearly enough to land a Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, or Jacob Trouba and an expendable piece that he might fetch, like a Trevor van Riemsdyk, Adam McQuaid, or Tucker Poolman might not be enough to fix the Islanders blue line. New York may have to up the ante beyond Nelson to land a difference-maker on the back end.

Tampa Bay May Still Be Looking For More Defense

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With the current high demands from Ottawa in a possible Erik Karlsson trade making it less and less likely that anything will happen, the Tampa Bay Lightning must choose whether they should be content with their defense or need to find another fit.

On paper, the team seems more solid than most as the team boasts Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh to go with promising Mikhail Sergachev and a host of solid blueline depth, including Anton Stralman, Dan Girardi, Braydon Coburn, Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. Yet when looking a step further, their elite defensemen are all left-handed. Hedman, McDonaugh and Sergachev are all left-handed, leaving Stralman, Dotchin and Girardi on the right, which isn’t nearly as solid. While Sergachev has proven he can play on the right side, that isn’t ideal for the Lightning, which was another reason why the team was intent on adding the right-handed Karlsson.

In a mailbag segment, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) suggests the team needs to continue looking for a right-handed defenseman to even out both sides, suggesting the team should monitor the Jacob Trouba situation in Winnipeg since the stud defenseman refuses to sign a long-term deal with the Jets. Trouba, who received a one-year, $5.5MM deal from an arbitrator last week will have to go through the same process next year as he will be a restricted free agent again. If the two sides can’t reach long-term agreement then, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2020-21 and might force his way out of Winnipeg.

Another option, Smith writes, would be prying Justin Faulk away from the Carolina Hurricanes. The right-shot defenseman has two years remaining on his contract at $4.83MM AAV, but with the acquisition of Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan and the plethora of young defensive talent on the roster, including Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, the team is expected to move Faulk for more help in other areas.

One final option and perhaps the cheapest would be to trade for Vancouver Canucks’ Chris Tanev. The 28-year-old stay-at-home defender has been solid for the Canucks, but is being overpaid at $4.45MM for the next two seasons. The right-handed defenseman would be a reliable presence.

Regardless, the team needs to shake up their defense. Coburn and Girardi, who have played bigger roles in the past, are better off as third-pairing defenders, while Sergachev played the best hockey of his career during the playoffs, suggesting he’s likely going to move into the top-four. Dotchin and Koekkoek are also both likely going to fight for time in the top-six, so something needs to change.

 

Central Notes: Blackhawks, Kovar, Seguin, Eriksson-Ek, Yeo

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Many teams in the Central Division have been quite active this offseason as they attempt to force their way to the top of the standings next season. However, the Chicago Blackhawks who need to move up in the standings more than anyone have been quite quiet so far this offseason.

If fact, the team have made just a handful of small moves, which included signing a 39-year-0ld forward, a backup goaltender and a depth defenseman in Chris Kunitz, Cam Ward and Brandon Manning. However, after a season that saw the Blackhawks drop from perennial playoff powerhouse to a team that lost more games than they won with a 33-39-10 season, these moves aren’t going to propel them back to the top of the Central. Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the team is likely done with the free agent market and if there is any plan to improve the team, it will need to be done through the trade market.

The Athletic’s Scott Powers (subscription required) adds that the team must address its defensive deficiencies and Manning doesn’t add anything to a team that showed its defense has slowed down considerably. While the team has quite a few defensive prospects, none are likely to be ready to help the team next year, suggesting the team must address that deficiency via trade.

Both writers suggest the team must engage the Carolina Hurricanes for defenseman Justin Faulk, who would complement the team’s defense. Now with Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan in place in Carolina, Faulk would seem to be quite expendable.

  • NHL.com’s Chris Kuk reports that the Blackhawks are not in the mix of  teams to land KHL forward Jan Kovar, who has expressed interest to come to the NHL this season. His agent, Allen Walsh tweeted that Kovar is considering various offers and will make a decision Sunday.
  • In a mailbag segment, NHL.com’s Mike Heika writes about what the likely scenario could be if the Dallas Stars are unable to work out an extension with star center Tyler Seguin. He suggests that Seguin, whose six-year, $34.5MM contract expires after next season, very likely will want to look at options, much like Steven Stamkos and John Tavares did. The fact that the Dallas Stars have only reached the playoffs once in the past four years isn’t in the team’s favor when they are trying to convince him to stay. Heika writes that if an extension isn’t reached before the 2018-19 season ends, the team would trade his rights rather than lose him for nothing. However, there is also high hopes that new head coach Jim Montgomery will have a major effect on the team as well as on Seguin.
  • In another mailbag, The Athletic’s Mike Russo (subscription required)writes that the team hasn’t made many moves as they are in a precarious position where they are left with many unmovable contracts to go with a group of young, talented players, who they would like to develop, leaving the team with few trade assets. The injury to defenseman Ryan Suter at the end of last season also has hindered the team’s trading ability as the team does have excess defense they could move, but won’t now that Sutter’s target date for a return is still up in the air. However, Russo writes that team has high expectations for Joel Eriksson Ek, who they want to move into a top-six center position and he could envision a position battle between Eriksson Ek and Mikko Koivu, who coach Bruce Boudreau wouldn’t mind moving to a checking role in the near future.
  • In yet another mailbag, Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that with the acquisition of top talents in Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron and Tyler Bozak, that much of the team’s success will now fall on head coach Mike Yeo who could find himself on the hot seat quickly. If the team falters early on, Yeo is likely to be replaced with Gordon suggesting that Dave Tippett or Alain Vigneault would be candidates to replace him midseason.

Islanders Must Focus On Moving Forward After Tavares

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When the New York Islanders lost John Tavares, the franchise found itself in a worse situation than it had hoped. The team that struggled a year ago on defense and in goal now lost their top scorer and seem to lack identity (except in the front office). The team will likely make Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal the new face of the franchise, but without Tavares, there remains a significant hole in their lineup.

While it seems likely Barzal will replace Tavares as the team’s top center, the real question is who will take over as the team’s No. 2 center? One positive note for New York is that the team has almost $20MM in available cap space after Tavares opted to go to Toronto and that’s after the signings of Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Robin Lehner and Tom Kuhnhackl as well as trading for Matt Martin. Regardless, none of those players are candidates to fill that No. 2 center position. The team does have restricted free agent Brock Nelson as a candidate to fill that role, but his status is up in the air.

The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) suggests if the Islanders want to make some type of impact move to suggest to their fan base that they are ready to move on (because bringing in Filppula, Komorov, Kuhnhackl, Lehner and Martin didn’t accomplish that), they must look to the trade market where there are a number of interesting names that the team could look to acquire, especially at the center position to show they are moving forward.

The top name is interesting enough as Goldman suggests that New York looks at the Ottawa Senators who are looking to cast off players left and right. Already having moved on from Mike Hoffman and in current trade talks with Erik Karlsson, the scribe writes the Islanders could attempt to make an offer to pry centers Matt Duchene or Jean-Gabriel Pageau away.

While Duchene would probably cost the Islanders quite a bit, he could potentially be a reasonable replacement for Tavares. Even though Ottawa gave up a lot to acquire Duchene less than a year ago, they may be ready to move on from him as he will be a free agent after this season and he might not want to return after having to endure the many problems that Ottawa has dealt with in the past year. However in New York, the team could match him with players like Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle or Josh Bailey and get solid production from him and the team would have the cap room to lock him up. The only downside to acquiring Duchene (despite the likely high cost) would be the team would have to sign him as well as Lee and Eberle next season as all three would be unrestricted free agents for the 2019-20 season. Pageau would be a much cheaper option, but lacks much upside if they want to use him as a second-line center.

One other option would be to pry Tyler Johnson away from the Tampa Bay Lightning, especially with the team attempting to clear out cap space to accommodate Karlsson. Johnson would provide significant value as a second-line center as well, but is locked up for six years at $5MM AAV, so they would be able to hold onto him for a long time.

While finding a replacement for Tavares, the team must also attempt to fix their other issues as they’ve done little to address their defense or goaltending. Adding Robin Lehner helps a little, but after the 26-year-old suffered through a disastrous season (3.01 GAA and a .908 save percentage), a Lehner-Thomas Greiss combination doesn’t sound particularly thrilling. The defense also needs help. The team lost Calvin de Haan to Carolina, although they did bring back Thomas Hickey. Although the team has high hopes that Ryan Pulock is ready to move into a top-four role immediately, his defense has always been suspect, so he isn’t likely to improve the Islanders defensive deficiencies. Andrew Gross of Newsday writes that the team should consider looking into acquiring Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes as he would provide that stability and would look good as the No. 1 piece along with Hickey, Pulock, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy.

Regardless, with few quality options available to them on the free agent market, the team likely has little choice to make a deal.

 

 

Metropolitan Notes: Hayes, Flyers, Faulk

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Between the draft and the early days of free agency, it has become clear that quality centers are in more and more demand. Accordingly, Larry Brooks of the New York Post opines that the Rangers may soon face a crossroads with Kevin Hayes.  The restricted free agent is one year away from unrestricted free agency and is coming off the type of season that would have a lot of teams interested in him; he had a career-high 25 goals in 76 games last season.

With that in mind, Brooks thinks that a $6MM or more payday will be on the horizon if Hayes makes it to the open market next summer. That means the Rangers will have to decide in the coming weeks whether they want to be the ones to give him that type of contract or look to cash in on the demand for centers around the league and make a trade instead.

More from the Metropolitan:

  • The Flyers pursued some help at center in free agency but the term that was being sought was too long for them, notes Dave Isaac of the Cherry Hill Courier-Post. Instead, they appear set to try to fill the void that was vacated by Valtteri Filppula’s departure internally with returning players like Scott Laughton and Jordan Weal potentially getting a chance to take on a bigger role. Philadelphia also had interest in adding a veteran defender but again, they have decided now to keep a spot open for a youngster such as Travis Sanheim to make a run at a full-time role.
  • Even though they don’t play the same side, Tuesday’s addition of defenseman Calvin de Haan could help push Carolina towards trading blueliner Justin Faulk, suggests Luke DeCock of the Raleigh News & Observer. The Hurricanes now have Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce locked up for at least the next three years on the right side which could make Faulk, who carries a $4.833MM cap charge for two more seasons, expendable. There is high demand for top-four right-shot defenders so it stands to reason that they could get a strong return if they do indeed decide to deal the 26-year-old. In the same column, DeCock reports that de Haan turned down more lucrative offers than the four-year, $18.2MM deal he signed with Carolina.

Carolina Hurricanes Sign Calvin De Haan

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The Carolina Hurricanes, known for their depth and talent on defense, continue to surprisingly add top blue line names to the roster this off-season. After previously trading for right-handed scoring threat Dougie Hamilton, the team has reportedly agreed to a deal with arguably the top defender on the free agent market, left-landed shutdown defenseman Calvin de Haan. The Raleigh News & Observer’s Luck DeCock first reported that the team has signed de Haan to a four-year, $18.2MM contract – a $4.55MM AAV. The team confirmed the deal soon after.

De Haan, 27, was No. 9 on PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents List. Although he missed the majority of last season due to injury, de Haan has shown a high-end defensive ability in his pro career. The 12th overall pick in 2009 by the New York Islanders, de Haan has proven to be one of the best shot blockers in the NHL and an extremely reliable presence on the back end. Yet has has also improved his offensive production with each year, including a career-best scoring rate prior to his injury last season. While many may have balked at a $4.55MM value for de Haan in a vacuum, he is clearly superior to nearly every other defenseman in this free agent market.

Carolina is a surprise landing spot for the defensive standout though. De Haan’s arrival in Raleigh will only add to a formidable corps of rearguards that includes Hamilton, Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Trevor van Riemsdyk (an RFA), young pros Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown, and elite prospects Jake Bean, Luke Martin, and Adam Fox. De Haan’s signing very well could be a sign of more changes coming in Carolina under new ownership and new GM Don Waddell. 

New York Islanders Agree To Terms With Thomas Hickey

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The New York Islanders looked like they would be supplying the market with two of the top free agent defensemen, but now one has decided to stay home. Darren Dreger of TSN reports that the team has an agreement with Thomas Hickey on a four-year contract worth $10MM.

With Calvin de Haan and Hickey as two of the top blueliners on the free agent market and the Islanders being considered to have one of the weakest defenses in the league, re-signing at least one of their defenseman was crucial. Hickey posted five goals and 25 points in 69 games last season for the Islanders and was relied on more than in previous years as he averaged 18:04 of ATOI. The six-year veteran has played for the Islanders his entire career.

The defensive specialist, who can be prone to making mistakes, will re-join veteran Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy, Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, who many think will be given a much bigger role with the Islanders next season.

 

Free Agent Rumor Round-Up: Maroon, Grabner, De Haan, Rieder

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Teams are free to speak with impending free agents prior to the official opening of free agency on Sunday, July 1st. As usual, that has produced a flurry of rumors regarding which teams and how many teams are talking to each of the biggest names. Here is an update on some of those rumors:

  • Unsurprisingly, winger Patrick Maroon has been linked to his hometown St. Louis Blues. Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic reports and Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch confirms that the Blues have reached out to Maroon’s camp in hopes of bringing him back to where his hockey aspirations first began. Maroon is coming off a career-high 43-point season and especially looked strong after a Trade Deadline deal from the Edmonton Oilers to the New Jersey Devils. Blues beat reporter Andy Strickland adds that Maroon has not closed the door on a return to either Edmonton or New Jersey, but that the Blues are one of at least six other teams who are pursuing the power forward.
  • The Boston Bruins were busy making their pitch to John Tavares today, but that doesn’t mean that they weren’t also thinking a few steps ahead. Mark Divver of the Providence Journal says that the Bruins have “checked in” on two-way speedster Michael Grabner, another Devils deadline acquisition. Not only do the Bruins need another veteran right-shot forward and want to continue to add quickness to the roster, but it also might not be a coincidence that Grabner spent years playing alongside Tavares with the New York Islanders.
  • In a shallow class of top-four defenseman, Calvin de Haan is drawing a lot of interest despite missing most of the season with the New York Islanders due to injury. The 27-year-old former first-round pick is one of the more reliable and younger options among defenders on the market and is set to cash in as a result. Kings beat writer Dennis Bernstein reports that Los Angeles is the latest team to show interest in de Haan, bringing the speculated total number of teams interested in the blue liner into the double-digits.
  • When the Kings declined to offer Tobias Rieder a qualifying offer yesterday, it was only a matter of time before teams came calling on the new UFA. Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal states that the Vancouver Canucks are one of those interested teams, but that four or five other suitors have already emerged. The two-way winger is one of the youngest and most versatile options available on the market.

Free Agency Notes: De Haan, Bernier, Stastny, Vanek

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While early reports that quite a bit of interest has been directed towards John Tavares, another New York Islanders’ unrestricted free agent has garnered attention too. David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports defenseman Calvin de Haan has received significant interest from upwards of 10 teams so far.

While Lou Lamoriello has made it clear that it is his mission to convince Tavares to stay with the Islanders, the team has two key defensive free agents to worry about as well, including de Haan and Thomas Hickey. De Haan, however, is an interesting situation as the blueliner has shown a lot of promise over the years since being drafted in the first round back in 2009, which includes some flashes of brilliance at times, but he’s never been able to put it all together in a full season for the Islanders. He did put up career highs in 2016-17 with five goals and 25 points and may well have been on his way to break that this year, but went down with a season-ending injury on Dec. 16. He posted one goal and 11 assists in 33 games.

Many teams feel that a change of scenery and the fact that the free agent is still just 27, would make him an ideal player who could become a quality top-four defenseman.

  • The Athletic’s Craig Custance reports that unrestricted free agent goaltender Jonathan Bernier has indicated that he likes Colorado and would like to return to the Avalanche. However, after the team traded for Washington Capitals goaltender Philipp Grubauer Friday and the fact they still have Semyon Varlamov listed as their starter, that would cause an unusual logjam at the goaltending position. If Colorado would rather have a combination of Grubauer and Bernier, general manager Joe Sakic would have to make another roster move to rid himself of Varlamov, who will be an unrestricted free agent in 2019. There would almost undoubtedly be a market for Varlamov if Sakic made him available. Bernier had moments of brilliance last season, but finished the year with a 2.85 GAA and a .913 save percentage in 37 games.
  • Fox Sports Andy Strickland reports that their is mutual interest for veteran center Paul Stastny to return to the Winnipeg Jets. Stastny thrived in Winnipeg’s offense alongside Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers, but the expected cost of retaining Stastny, who is the No. 2 center on the unrestricted free agent market, is not in the team’s financial plans. Custance writes the Jets are looking for a way to keep Stastny, which would require them to move out a contract to make a deal like that work. The 32-year-old put up 16 goals and 53 points between St. Louis and Winnipeg last year.
  • Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal writes that while former Vancouver Canucks forward Thomas Vanek has received some early interest from teams, the Canucks are not one of them. There had been some early talk that the team wanted to bring back the 34-year-old winger after they traded the veteran to Columbus at the trade deadline. The team liked the way he mentored the younger players. His 17 goals for Vancouver (24 total for the season) suggest he still has the ability to put the puck in the net.

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