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Central Notes: Ehlers, Josi, Johns

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The Winnipeg Jets know what they have in Nikolaj Ehlers. The 23-year-old forward is a speedster, who is known to score goals in bunches and is considered to be a key piece to the Jets’ top-six. Yet, at the same time, there are equally just as many questions as in 21 career playoff games, he has zero goals and has also proven to be wildly inconsistent. There has been plenty of talk that the Jets, struggling with salary cap issues as many of their young players have received or are soon expected to receive big contracts, might be willing to move their young Danish forward.

However, the Winnipeg Sun’s Scott Billeck writes that moving the forward would likely be a major mistake for a franchise who still needs as many scoring forwards as the can get. The scribe looks at Ehlers’ A3Z statistics, which refers to his play in all three zones and compares him to Edmonton’s Connor McDavid. While pointing out that you can’t compare the two as overall players, Ehlers’s A3Z statistics suggest that he is a dominant player in comparison to McDavid in certain situations. McDavid is in the 99 percentile in shots contributed over 60 minutes, while Ehlers finds himself in the 97th percentile. Ehlers shot-assist ratio over 60 minutes suggest he’s in the 91st percentile in the league, suggesting he could take his game up a notch soon.

Therefore trading Ehlers to ease some of the team’s cap concerns or replace him with a defender, could quickly become a mistake.

  • Greg Hardwig of the Naples Daily News reports that Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi, who is entering the final year of his contract and will be a highly sought after unrestricted free agent next summer, reiterated Friday that he wants to remain with the Predators. “I never made it secret that I’d like to stay in Nashville,” said Josi. “I think we’re talking a little bit over the summer, and I’ll let my agent deal with that and just focus on getting ready for the season.” Josi could see an even bigger role this season after the team traded P.K. Subban to New Jersey, giving more responsibility to the team’s top three blueliners, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm and Josi.
  • The Dallas Stars have made a number of big additions this summer with many suggesting the Stars could be Stanley Cup contenders this season. However, the team has one unknown that could have a significant effect on the team’s future in Stephen Johns. The 27-year-old looked like he was developing into a solid blueliner after the 2017-18 season, but instead missed the entire season last year due to post-traumatic headaches. Now cleared, Dallas Morning News’ Matthew DeFranks wonders whether he can step in immediately as the team’s No. 4 defenseman this season. If Johns can prove he’s ready to go, the 6-foot-4, 225 pound blueliner might be the perfect complement to 20-year-old Miro Heiskanen.

 

NHL Sets Salary Cap at $81.5MM for 2019-20

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The NHL and NHLPA have made it official, as TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the NHL salary cap for 2019-20 will be $81.5MM, as many had recently projected with the salary floor being set at $60.2MM.

That isn’t good news for teams that are at or near the cap as many teams had hoped that the cap might be closer to $83MM like it was projected several weeks ago. However, recently rumors had been rumbling that the number would be closer to $82MM and potentially as low as $81.5MM, which is what it ended up being, which is a worst-case scenario for teams hoping for that extra space to maneuver.

That could prompt more teams that need to open up cap space to make cost-cutting moves. The league has seen some of that already today with the Nashville Predators unloading the $9MM contract of defenseman P.K. Subban in order to free up space to extend defenseman Roman Josi and potentially sign a free-agent center such as Matt Duchene in the coming week. The Toronto Maple Leafs sent a future first-rounder to Carolina also today in order to unload the final year of Patrick Marleau and his $6.25MM contract. The Tampa Bay Lightning also unloaded J.T. Miller’s $5.25MM contract that still has four more years on it for a future first-rounder as well. Other teams that are in trouble and could be making similar cap-saving moves include the Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.

The announcement, however, could be big news for teams with plenty of cap space to sell. The Devils acquired a top-four defenseman for a very little return, while Vancouver added a top-six forward in Miller. There are six teams underneath the ceiling of $60.2MM, including the Philadelphia Flyers, Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators and the Colorado Avalanche. Several of those team have significant free agents to sign, however, including Winnipeg, Philadelphia and Colorado, but there are many teams that could take advantage, now more than ever, of some of the teams who have already capped themselves out. In fact, Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen was thrilled at the cap number.

“It doesn’t affect us. I like it,” Kekalainen said (via NHL.com’s Dan Rosen). “It’s going to squeeze some teams some more. … They’re going to have to solve their problems and maybe we can be a solution.”

Western Notes: Tippett, Josi, Beaulieu, Simek

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The Edmonton Oilers and new general manager Ken Holland haven’t announced a new coach and while rumors have suggested that the team has settled on Dave Tippett as the team’s new head coach, nothing has been announced.

Postmedia’s Kurt Leavins reiterates that Tippett to Edmonton is a “done deal,” but the timing of the announcement has been the issue. The deal still has to get onto paper and with both the NHL Draft Combine and the Stanley Cup Finals, there is little time to get the announcement out there that the team has a new head coach. Regardless, the scribe writes that Tippett’s appointment will come in the next few days.

  • For a second year in a row, the Nashville Predators top priority will be to sign one of their star defensemen to a extension. The team locked up Ryan Ellis to an eight-year, $50MM deal last summer and must do something similar with Roman Josi, who is eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Josi, however, has made it clear he wants to stay in Nashville. However, the Predators will have to pay up as The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required) writes that they will likely have to give him the biggest contract in team history, which could overtake Ryan Johansen’s $8MM AAV.
  • The Winnipeg Jets have a number of big contracts and potential trades to deal with this offseason, but there are also smaller issues along their roster as well. The team needs to keep their defensive depth, one of the strengths of their roster in recent years, yet they only have five defensemen under contract. The Winnipeg Sun’s Ken Wiebe writes that the Jets have indicated that they would like to bring back restricted free agent Nathan Beaulieu, who the team acquired at the trade deadline for a sixth-round pick, as insurance in case they lose Jacob Trouba to a trade. However, in order to offer Beaulieu a qualifying offer, they would have to add 10 percent to his $2.4MM he made last year, which the team is unlikely to do for a bottom-pairing defenseman. The more logical approach, which Winnipeg did last year with Joseph Morrow, would be to not qualify him and then try to sign him for less as an unrestricted free agent.
  • The San Jose Sharks got some good news as The Athletic’s David Lombardi (subscription required) writes that defenseman Radim Simek, who has been out since March 12th after having his leg crushed in a collision with Winnipeg’s Andrew Copp and having surgery to repair a torn ACL, MCL and meniscus, has already returned to the ice and is skating again. “The guys who are taking care of me say that my rehab is going really fast, that it’s really unusual to only be two months removed from surgery but back on the ice, skating however I want,” Simek said.  Simek, who signed out of the Czech Republic in 2017, played one year in the AHL and made the NHL roster this season, playing in 41 games and making a significant difference before getting injured and hopes to be back for next season.

2019 All-Star Rosters Announced

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The NHL has announced the four rosters for the 2019 All-Star Game today, scheduled to be held on January 26th in San Jose. Earlier today, Alex Ovechkin, who was elected captain of Metropolitan Division squad, told the league that he wouldn’t be attending and will accept the punishment of missing one game either before or after the break. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews will represent the Pacific, Central and Atlantic respectively, as the other captains. A replacement Metropolitan captain for Ovechkin has yet to be named.

The full rosters are as follows:

Pacific Division

G John Gibson (ANA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK)

D Erik Karlsson (SJS)
D Brent Burns (SJS)
D Drew Doughty (LAK)

F Connor McDavid (EDM)*
F Johnny Gaudreau (CGY)
F Joe Pavelski (SJS)
F Elias Pettersson (VAN)
F Clayton Keller (ARI)

Central Division

G Pekka Rinne (NSH)
G Devan Dubnyk (MIN)

D Roman Josi (NSH)
D Miro Heiskanen (DAL)

F Nathan MacKinnon (COL)*
F Mikko Rantanen (COL)
F Blake Wheeler (WPG)
F Patrick Kane (CHI)
F Mark Scheifele (WPG)
F Ryan O’Reilly (STL)

Atlantic Division

G Jimmy Howard (DET)
G Carey Price (MTL)

D Keith Yandle (FLA)
D Thomas Chabot (OTT)

F Auston Matthews (TOR)*
F Nikita Kucherov (TBL)
F Steven Stamkos (TBL)
F John Tavares (TOR)
F David Pastrnak (BOS)
F Jack Eichel (BUF)

Metropolitan Division

G Henrik Lundqvist (NYR)
G Braden Holtby (WAS)

D John Carlson (WSH)
D Seth Jones (CBJ)

F Sidney Crosby (PIT)
F Taylor Hall (NJD)
F Mathew Barzal (NYI)
F Claude Giroux (PHI)
F Cam Atkinson (CBJ)
F Sebastian Aho (CAR)

*Denotes team captain

One final skater spot on each roster has yet to be announced, as it will be determined by the “Last Man In” fan ballot, a concept borrowed from Major League Baseball. The format of the current All-Star Game, which requires one representative from each team on these smaller 3-on-tournament rosters, was bound to cause some confusion with the initial selections. Seven top-twenty scorers were not selected – Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Leon Draisaitl, Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk, Phil Kessel, and Gabriel Landeskog – and several will inevitably remain out of All-Star participation even after the fan ballot additions. Morgan Rielly, the league’s top-scoring defenseman, and Mark Giordano, enjoying an elite season on both sides of the puck, are two surprising omissions on the blue line. Several of the league’s top goalies are also going to miss out, ineligible for the fan ballot, including Ben Bishop, Frederik Andersen, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. The “Last Man In” will be an intriguing new addition to the All-Star process, with nominees to be named shortly, but more than a few notable names will be left out regardless. Meanwhile, the health of players like Price and Chabot for Team Atlantic and Hall for Team Metropolitan will bear watching, as those players may opt to skip the All-Star festivities, opening up more players to selection.

Central Notes: Predators, Saad, Kane, Schenn, Niederreiter

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With the recent re-signing of goaltender Pekka Rinne to a new extension with a no-movement clause, the Nashville Predators are likely to be heavily scouted over the next couple of years by the Seattle expansion team, who are expected to have their own expansion draft in 2020, assuming everything goes as planned. If that’s the case, then the Predators might be forced to expose young goaltender Juuse Saros in the expansion draft if they can’t convince Rinne to waive his NMC.

In a mailbag series, The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required) writes that with the expansion rules expected to be the same as Vegas, the Predators will likely be expected to protect all four of their top defensemen (assuming Roman Josi agrees to an extension), which might limit the amount of forwards they can protect down the road, suggesting that Seattle will either get a top-rated goaltender (in Saros or a willing Rinne) or receive a top-end forward to jumpstart their new franchise.

  • Chicago Blackhawks forward Brandon Saad has had a rough go of it this week in practice. He took a puck to the face in practice Wednesday that required a lengthy trip to the dentist, according to Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required). Now, Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus reports that Saad then injured his arm in practice Friday, forcing him to miss today’s game and he is considered day-to-day for Monday’s game at Carolina.
  • Sticking with the Blackhawks, Lazerus also points out that new head coach Jeremy Colliton has already pressed Patrick Kane into a big role. Already the biggest leader in minutes on the forward line, Kane played the most he’s ever played in a regular-season game, a record 27:43 Thursday against Carolina. He followed that up with 24:33 against Philadelphia Saturday. “It’s fun,” Kane said. “It’s always fun coming back to the bench after a shift and hearing your name called up for the next shift to go out. It’s exciting. I like it, it gets me into the game, too. I’ve actually been trying to figure out how to get that excitement and energy into my game in the first and second period, because there’s some crazy stats where I’ve got way more goals this year in the third period than any other period.”
  • It looks like St. Louis Blues center Brayden Schenn will miss his third-straight game Sunday with what is believed to be a strained oblique muscle, according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He did practice Saturday, suggesting he’s getting closer to a return. “I would say that he’s doubtful for tomorrow, but encouraging that he’s getting closer,” coach Mike Yeo said. “He looked good in practice today. I talked to him afterward. We just have to make sure we’re smart.”
  • The Minnesota Wild’s Nino Niederreiter finally broke a 27-goal scoring streak Thursday when he scored his first goal of the season and was quick to point out that staying positive was the most challenging thing for him while waiting out that streak. He said the mental challenges were taxing on him and his play, according to the StarTribune’s Sarah McLellan. “That’s the toughest thing, staying positive in those moments,” Niederreiter said. “But it makes it a lot easier that we’ve been doing well, and as long as the team is winning, it makes it a lot easier. But it was definitely frustrating at some points.”

Central Notes: Josi, Sundqvist, Methot

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Many would suggest that Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis left some money on the table when he signed his eight-year, $50MM contract extension earlier this summer.  Fellow blueliner Roman Josi certainly felt that way and hinted to Adam Vingan of The Athletic (subscription required) that he may be willing to do the same once he is eligible to sign an extension next July:

“Whatever Ryan did was the right mindset. You’ve got to make sure we can keep that core together. For that (to happen), you’ve got to do your part, too.”

Josi is on one of the bigger bargain contracts in the league, one that carries a cap hit of $4MM through 2019-20.  The team already has $19MM committed to their other three top-four defenders for 2020-21 and beyond so the Predators may be in tough to keep that core together.  However, Ellis did his part to help earlier this summer and it appears that their captain is willing to do the same when the time comes.

More from the Central:

  • Last season, the Blues kept center Oskar Sundqvist on the roster in part because they were concerned he might clear waivers, notes Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. However, he adds they don’t seem to have that same worry now.  Sundqvist played a sparing role last year, collecting a goal and four assists in 42 games while averaging 10:29 per night in ice time.  With several youngsters vying for a roster spot though, there’s a real possibility that his spot is in jeopardy.
  • Stars defenseman Marc Methot dealt with knee issues last season and it doesn’t appear that those have completely gone away. He mentioned to Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News that his knee is still tender at times but that the situation is more manageable.  Even so, that has to be at least a little concerning for the team considering he’s their highest-paid defender and is someone they’ll be counting on to have much more of an impact if they want to make it back to the postseason.

Central Notes: Trouba, Kunin, Josi

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The Jets and Jacob Trouba weren’t able to work out an agreement on a contract and wound up going through salary arbitration with him being awarded $5.5MM.  The defenseman told Postmedia’s Ken Wiebe that he’s hopeful to avoid going that route next offseason and indicated that he remains open to signing a long-term pact with the team, acknowledging that there were long-term deals discussed over the summer.  Winnipeg has several players in the final year of their contract including fellow blueliner Tyler Myers plus wingers Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor and already has nearly $52.5MM committed to just 11 players for 2019-20.  While Winnipeg may certainly be interested in giving Trouba a long-term contract, they may not be able to afford to do so without clearing out someone else to create the cap space.

More from the Central:

  • Minnesota may be without winger Luke Kunin to start the season. Speaking with reporters, including Dane Mizutani of the Pioneer Press, he noted that he has not been cleared for contact from the ACL surgery he underwent back in early April.  He’s slated to be re-evaluated in early October but even if he gets the green light, he may not be ready for the opener.  The 20-year-old split the season between the Wild and their AHL affiliate in Iowa; he had two goals and two assists in 19 NHL games plus ten goals and nine helpers in 36 minor league contests.
  • Predators defenseman Roman Josi has switched agencies, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. After previously being with Maloney & Thompson Sports Management, he has joined Wasserman/Orr Hockey.  Despite the switch, it will still be a little while before the blueliner can negotiate a new contract as he’s ineligible for a contract extension until July 1st.  At that time, Josi will certainly be looking for a significant increase on his current $4MM cap hit.

Poll: What Kind Of Extension Is Predators’ Ryan Ellis Worth?

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With top defensemen getting locked up to big, long-term deals everywhere, one only has to look around the league to see who is next. The most obvious target would be Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, who will be wrapping up the final year of his five-year, $12.5MM deal. Ellis, who is one of the core of Nashville’s talented back end, is one of the most underpaid blueliners in the league at $2.5MM AAV, should be in line for a great extension. After all, many of his defensive teammates are already well-paid, including P.K. Subban ($9MM for four more years), Roman Josi ($4MM for two more years), and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM for four more years).

Nashville claims that locking up the 27 year old is the team’s top priority this offseason. Yet little has happened. However, how much is he worth, asks Adam Vingan of the Tennessean? While two of the most significant extensions went to Los Angeles’ Kings Drew Doughty (eight years, $11MM AAV) and Arizona Coyotes’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $8.25MM AAV), Ellis likely doesn’t fit into that category. Therefore, Vingan writes that Nashville must compare Ellis’ play with several other tiers of defenseman that have recently signed new deals. The most likely comparables for Ellis will come down to the recent contracts signed by Washington Capitals’ John Carlson (eight years, $8MM AAV) and Tampa Bay Lightning’s Ryan McDonagh (eight years, $6.75MM AAV). However is he as good as those two?

The next tier would be contracts handed out a few years ago that could compare, such as Pittsburgh Penguins’ Kris Letang (eight years, $7.25MM AAV), Erik Johnson (seven years, $6MM AAV) and Anaheim Ducks’ Cam Fowler (eight years, $6.5MM AAV). Ellis’ stats are challenging to look when attempting to compare to any of those defensemen. Offensively, he’s never put up 40 points in a season yet, coming close once with 38 points (16 of those were goals). However, after missing the first half of this past season after undergoing knee surgery in the offseason, Ellis’ stats took a jump when he put up 32 points in 44 games, suggesting that his offense is starting to emerge. With his defense never under question, the Predators must come up with a number soon.

So what range should Ellis fall into?

How much should Nashville defenseman get on his next contract?
$6-8MM per year 54.71% (598 votes)
Less than $6MM per year 39.71% (434 votes)
More than $8MM per year 5.58% (61 votes)
Total Votes: 1,093

Trade Rumors app users, click here.

Free Agent Notes: Holden, Ellis, Namestnikov, Wilson

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The Vegas Golden Knights already surprised a few when they reached out and stole Paul Stastny away from Western Conference rival Winnipeg. However, the Golden Knights are apparently not done as The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Vegas is the front-runner for unrestricted free agent defenseman Nick Holden.

Holden, who spent time with both the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins last season, would be a solid depth defenseman that could add to Vegas’ core. he averaged 19:00 ATOI between both clubs, but only posted four goals and 17 points on the year. However, the 31-year-old may be starting to show a decline in skills as he was a 34-point player in 2016-17 with the Rangers.

Incidentally, Holden is being pursued by two teams as the Boston Bruins are also vying for the blueliner’s services, according to Sportsnet’s Mark Spector. The Bruins, after all, gave up a third-round pick and low-end prospect Rob O’Gara at the deadline.

  • LeBrun also mentions that while Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis, who will be a unrestricted free agent in one year, can sign an extension as of today. However, the scribe writes that Nashville isn’t there yet. They intend to reignite talks with Ellis and his representatives within the next one to two weeks. Nashville wants to keep Ellis in the fold at all costs as the team has put major emphasis on having a dominant four defense. The team already has P.K. Subban ($9MM AAV) and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM AAV) locked up for four years, while Roman Josi ($4MM AAV) is signed for another two years.
  • The New York Rangers can breathe easier after the agent for restricted free agent Vladislav Namestnikov, Dan Milstein, refuted rumors that the forward was leaving for the KHL. Namestnikov, who was acquired from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, but saw his playing time drop once he arrived in New York. After averaging 17:30 of ATOI as a Lightning, his playing time dropped to 15:43, along with his offensive production. After potting 20 goals with Tampa Bay, he managed just four points in 19 games with the Rangers. However, Milstein insists the rumors are not true and that Namestnikov believes playing in the NHL is a privilege and honor and an extension is in the works with the New York Rangers.
  • Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News reports the Buffalo Sabres are currently working on re-signing winger Scott Wilson. The 26-year-old was picked up in a December trade this last season from the Detroit Red Wings and played a regular role as a bottom-six forward. After not scoring a point in 17 games with Detroit, he tallied six goals and 14 points in 49 games in Buffalo.

Snapshots: Josi, Condors, Kempny

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Roman Josi couldn’t drag the Nashville Predators or Switzerland to victory this year, but it wasn’t for a lack of effort. As reported in swisshockeynews.ch today, Josi broke his hand in the IIHF World Championship semi-final game against Canada, but still suited up in the final for nearly 30 minutes of ice time. Apparently the Swiss team needed to get permission from the Predators to have him continue to play, likely meaning it’s not a serious injury for the Nashville captain.

Josi will be expected to log big minutes once again for the Predators next season as he continues to close in on the end of his current contract. The 28-year old defenseman is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020, meaning an extension from GM David Poile and the team just over a year from now seems like almost a sure thing. Josi will carry a cap hit of just $4MM this season and next, another one of the Predators’ mind-boggling bargains on the back end. He, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis combine for just a $10.25MM cap hit and are among the best at their position—broken hand and all.

  • The Bakersfield Condors have hired Dave Manson as an assistant coach for next season, joining the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL affiliate and head coach Jay Woodcroft. Manson, former NHL player and father of Anaheim Ducks’ defenseman Josh Manson, had been coaching with the Prince Albert Raiders since his retirement in 2002. The Condors will try to get back to the playoffs next season, after finishing just 31-27-10 in 2017-18.
  • Michal Kempny has been a huge part of the Washington Capitals success since coming over from the Chicago Blackhawks during the season, but even he wasn’t expecting to have such an impact. In fact, according to Frank Seravalli of TSN, Kempny was considering returning to Europe at some point as he doubted his future in the NHL. The 27-year old shouldn’t have to worry about that any longer, as he’s done enough to earn a contract offer from the Capitals at very least, and likely many more suitors on the open market should he decide to test unrestricted free agency this summer.

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