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Morning Notes: Gretzky, Tarasenko, Hall

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Wayne Gretzky has been named global ambassador for Kunlun Red Star of the KHL, lending his name to the development of hockey in China. The team will open a Gretzky-named hockey school for children aimed to give the next wave of Chinese hockey players added coaching and opportunity. As the NHL continues to grow its brand around the world, the “Great One” will be a big part of that movement.

This comes before the 2022 Winter Olympics are held in Beijing, a tournament that may or may not have NHL involvement. The league held its players out of the most recent Olympics, but could return to the format if a financial agreement can be worked out. Attending the Olympics is likely going to be a topic in the next CBA negotiations, which could come soon as both the NHL and NHLPA have opt-out clauses next year that could bring a work stoppage in 2020.

  • Vladimir Tarasenko was back in action yesterday, giving hope to the idea that he’ll be ready for the start of the 2018-19 season. Tarasenko injured his shoulder at the end of last season and needed reconstructive surgery, but has been cleared to skate and can even take some contact. The 26-year old sniper will be re-evaluated in September, at which point the St. Louis Blues will know if they’ll have him for opening night. The Blues have brought in several offensive players this offseason, but will still rely on Tarasenko to drive their attack.
  • Chris Ryan of NJ Advance Media spoke to New Jersey Devils owner Josh Harris about upcoming extension negotiations with Taylor Hall, who explained that it was the team’s highest priority. Hall has two years remaining on his current contract meaning an extension can be signed on July 1, 2019 at which point he could become one of the highest-paid forwards in the league. The 26-year old Hall carries just a $6MM cap hit at the moment, is coming off a Hart Trophy-winning season, and has a good shot at leading the Devils back to the playoffs again in 2018-19. The fact that an owner is willing to comment on the situation should give hope to Devils fans that the team will do everything in their power to keep Hall around for many years.

Full 2018 Arbitration Hearing Schedule

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Almost four dozen players decided to file for salary arbitration this summer, and while some of them have already been signed to contracts many others now know when their hearing will take place. The NHLPA released the full schedule of hearings, spread out from July 20th to August 4th.  Remember that players can sign up until an arbitrator awards a contract, including in the short window after the hearing.

July 20

Jacob Trouba – Team filing: $4.0MM, Player filing: $7.0MM. Awarded one-year, $5.5MM contract.

July 23

Brett Kulak – Team filing: $650K, two-way contract, Player filing: $1.15MM, one-way contract. Awarded one-year, $850K contract.

July 24

Brandon Montour – Team filing: $1.5MM, Player filing: $4.5MM Settled before hearing, two years $6.775MM

July 30

Garnet Hathaway – Team filing: $650K, Player filing: $975K Settled before hearing, one-year $850K

August 1

Cody Ceci – Team filing: $3.35MM, Player filing $6.0MM. Awarded one-year, $4.3MM contract.
Gemel Smith – Team filing: two-way contract, Player filing: $900K. Awarded one-year one-way, $720K contract.

August 3

Mark Stone – Team filing: $5.0MM, Player filing $9.0MM Settled before hearing, one-year, $7.35MM

August 4

William Karlsson – Team filing: $3.5MM, Player filing $6.5MM

Behind The Scenes Of The Jacob Trouba Arbitration Case

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Arbitration cases rarely go through the hearing stage in the NHL, so for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets to have reached this point in their negotiations – on the first scheduled day of hearing dates no less – is a major surprise. TSN’s Sara Orlesky reports that the two sides did in fact sit down for their hearing with the arbitrator and that a decision will be handed down in the next 48 hours. The Jets and Trouba have until that decision is made to agree to a deal on their own terms, likely a long-term extension, otherwise they will be stuck with a one-year deal and have to go through the process once again next summer.

So what exactly did it look like in the hearing today? Likely not what many would think. While the player and team are present during presentations to the arbitrator, neither team executives nor the player’s representation are in charge of arguing the case. The NHL Players’ Association handles the player side, while the teams use one of three lawyers to present their side: Dan Rabinowitz and Andre Nowakowski of Miller-Thomson in Toronto or Andre Lepage of BFC in Montreal. Each side makes their case based on briefs that they have previously filed to both the opposing side and the arbitrator, bringing in exhibits to support their arguments as well. The briefs contain the salary figures sought; the Jets reportedly filed at $4MM and Trouba at $7MM. It is a wide spread for the abitrator to consider and he may decide at or in between those figures.

What is the content of the arguments? Also somewhat contrary to what one may think, the two sides spend little time actually arguing the merits of the player, at least in absolute terms. The backbone of a salary arbitration case is the comparable players. For Trouba, the NHLPA would generally have comparable players that make $7MM or more to show that their filing number is fair, while the team reps will use comparable players around $4MM or less to prove their value. Each side will identify strengths or weaknesses to the player and find comparables that they can use to strengthen those points. The use of concrete search criteria to choose comparable players is key and often results in both sides tweaking their criteria ever so much that it includes only player who benefit their case. There are also rules regarding the players used: they must be current contracts, they must be recent contracts, and they must be contracts signed by a player who was or would have been an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. Any deviation from this criteria would seriously injure the persuasiveness of the use of that comparable player. Other things that cannot be considered are off-ice behavior, even including something like Trouba’s previous contract holdout, or the team’s salary cap or roster depth status, which the Jets wish they could use in this case.

So who might be comparables in the Trouba case? The filing numbers for both sides suggest that there could be a wide range of possibilities. Using only the most basic metrics – games played and points-per-game – players like Justin Schultz, Colton Parayko, and Tyson Barrie lie right in the middle of the two values at $5.5MM and either side might struggle to use them effectively. Unfortunately for the NHLPA, those appear to be their best options. The case for any might be percentage of the salary cap rather than actual salary, given the major jump this off-season. Players like Torey Krug, Jared Spurgeon, Sami Vatanen and Dmitry Orlov would favor the Jets slightly more, but their home run option is likely a player like David Savard at $4.25MM.

After all the comparables have been presented, arguments have been made, and rebuttals and closing comments have been heard, the arbitrator will take his time to make the decision on just how much Trouba is worth based on everything he has witnessed. During that time, the two sides – who have also been enlightened to some extent – also come back together and talk contract terms. In recent years, hearings have more often than not led to independent agreements and not official decisions. Will it be the same for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets? We will know soon enough.

Bettman And Daly Discuss Expansion, Salary Cap, Playoffs And More In State Of The League Address

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NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly spoke with the media today ahead of Game One of the Stanley Cup Final to address ongoing league issues. The pair answered questions for close to an hour combined and touched on many of the most important issues facing the NHL currently:

  • Bettman clarified the situation regarding Seattle and the next round of expansion in the NHL. He began by shooting down rumors that the Board of Governors would vote on Seattle’s expansion bid at next month’s meeting. Instead, Bettman offered meetings in September or December of this year as the likely voting date. Bettman stressed that there was never any timetable for this round of expansion, so there is no delay in evaluating Seattle’s situation, but instead said that “the train just hasn’t arrived at the station on time.” However, Bettman did add that there has been “no pushback whatsoever” from the owners on adding another team and using the same Expansion Draft rules that Vegas received, so it seems that the plan to add Seattle is full steam ahead.
  • Daly addressed the expansion possibilities in Houston, stating that there have been conversations with the new owner of the NBA’s Houston Rockets, Tilman Fertitta, about potential interest. Daly admits that Fertitta is interested and did not seem to care whether a Houston team would be added through expansion or relocation. However, Daly does not believe that any such move to Houston is imminent, as the Rockets ownership group is still adjusting to owning one team, nevertheless already looking to add another.
  • In regards to recent comments from Boston Bruins owner Jeremy Jacobs, who stated that the league did not want a team in Quebec City, Bettman refuted the claim and said only that Jacobs was speaking for himself and not all of his fellow owners. It does seem that Quebec City is solidly in third, at best, among potential NHL expansion cities, but Bettman does not want to alienate a key Canadian fan base by agreeing that the league will never return to the city.
  • Bettman also addressed the situation in Ottawa, making it clear that the Senators are not for sale. Bettman stood behind owner Eugene Melnyk, as he has in the past, calling him a “committed owner”. Many Sens fans and other around the league may disagree, but the league currently seems content to let things play out in Ottawa.
  • Both Bettman and Daly confirmed that the league did not suffer an adverse effects from not participating in the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. The league’s decision was highly criticized by fans, players, and corporate partners alike, but neither Bettman nor Daly expressed any regret. They said that no decision has been made about the 2022 Games in Beijing, China just yet.
  • In fact, the league must have enjoyed a strong season financially, as Daly estimates that the salary cap for the 2018-19 season will fall somewhere between $78MM and $82MM. The midpoint, $80MM, would represent a $5MM increase from this past season. Just that number would be the largest increase in the salary cap limit in a decade. This news, even just as an estimate, could drastically change the landscape of this upcoming off-season.
  • This increased profit also has Bettman optimistically talking collective bargaining. Bettman seemed pleased when discussing league finances and said he was ready to sit down and negotiate a new CBA with the players’ association at any time. The current CBA expires after the 2021-22 season, although both sides may opt out in September of 2019. Bettman seemed hopeful that the NHLPA would be ready to begin negotiations shortly to avoid any future work stoppage.
  • Bettman quickly addressed the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on legalized sports betting, saying that the NHL would prefer federal oversight and consistency rather than state-by-state unique betting structures. Unfortunately for him, that is unlikely given the court’s decision.
  • Bettman also briefly mentioned that the league is getting closer to having accurate player and puck tracking data readily available. This would provide a major boost to hockey analytics and player evaluation.
  • Daly added that third jerseys are on their way back to the NHL. Adidas did not make alternate jerseys this year in their first season as the NHL’s supplier, but will have them ready for next year. Daly revealed that nearly a third of the teams will have brand new third jerseys in 2018-19.
  • The most controversial comment of the night came from Daly, who said that the league feels that their current playoff format is the best ever and that no changes are on the horizon. This is totally counter to the general public sentiment this postseason.
  • Seemingly the only major topic that the Commissioner and Deputy Commissioner did not touch on is concussions. Bettman fielded one such question by simply refusing to answer, saying “I’m not going to start another news cycle”. Daly added little more, saying that it’s not Bettman’s opinion, but so far there is not enough evidence from the league’s scientists that CTE and concussions are connected. Maybe that was the most controversial comment…

Goaltender Interference Decisions Staying In Toronto’s Situation Room

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The NHL and NHLPA’s Competition Committee met today in New York, and as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet report, much of their decisions will be to maintain the status quo. Though new chest protectors for goaltenders will be implemented finally, the committee will suggest that goaltender interference reviews will stay in the Toronto Situation Room for next season. LeBrun also mentions that there was plenty of discussion about Rule 48—hits to the head—but doesn’t suggest any potential decisions one way or the other.

Interference calls were a point of huge contention this year, as referees on the ice routinely made a decision that confused coaches and players. The lack of any real consistency was the complaint of most, who just wanted to clearly know what constituted interference on a goal. That debate settled down a bit after the league made an in-season decision to put the power into the hands of those in Toronto, who hired a select group retired officials to be on hand every night.

Hits to the head looks like it will be the next battlefield for the NHL, though it’s unclear who is fighting on which side. Obviously players as a whole would like to see their members suffer fewer concussions, but there doesn’t seem to be a real thirst to reduce the amount of physical play in the league. Owners on the other hand could be forgiven if they want their biggest assets (players) protected, but also don’t want to remove any excitement from the game. It’s not hard to understand why then they would have long discussions but few decisions on the rule, with it likely coming down to a stricter hand by the Department of Player Safety next season. Already we’ve seen the DoPS release videos trying to explain their decision making process more thoroughly, and that should only continue into next season.

NHLPA Announces Finalists For Ted Lindsay Award

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Though the Hart Trophy for league MVP may get more fanfare, the Ted Lindsay Award may be just as impressive. It’s given to the league’s best player as voted by his peers, an ultimate sign of respect in the NHL. This year, the NHLPA has announced that Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Taylor Hall are the three finalists for the award.

McDavid is used to this kind of attention, having won the award last season. He beat out Sidney Crosby and Brent Burns after scoring 100 points and winning the Hart and Art Ross. He led the league in scoring again this season with 108 points, and could very well take home the Ten Lindsay for the second consecutive year.

MacKinnon has always been an effective player for the Colorado Avalanche, but the 22-year old exploded for 97 points this season in just 74 games. The first-overall pick from 2013 was an absolute force for his team, dragging them into the playoffs just a year after finishing last in the entire NHL.

For Hall, a nomination of this magnitude is something of sweet redemption after he was traded from the Edmonton Oilers two years ago. Seen as a perimeter player on his former club, he was sent to New Jersey in exchange for Adam Larsson and admittedly struggled with the disappointment in his first season in the East. This year, he shook off any rust and threw the whole of the Devils offensive attack on his back. With 93 points he set or matched career-highs in almost every category, and outscored the next highest Devil (Nico Hischier) by 41 points.

Amazingly there were other incredible seasons that won’t even be given the distinction of a finalist for the award. Claude Giroux and Nikita Kucherov both broke the 100-point plateau for the first time in their careers, while three Pittsburgh Penguins—Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Crosby—all finished in the top-10 in scoring. Blake Wheeler showed off his versatility by moving from the wing to center for a large chunk of the season, and still finished with a career-high 91 points. Anze Kopitar proved that last year was the anomaly, as he jumped from 12 goals and 52 points in 2016-17 to 35 and 92 this season.

The winner of the Ted Lindsay Award can be especially proud of his performance this year in the face of so many other worthy candidates. We’ll find out who gets to take it home at the NHL Awards event on June 20th.

NHLPA Approves Proposed Changes To Lottery Odds

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In what has become an annual event, the NHL Players’ Association has yet again approved changes to the NHL Draft lottery odds. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the NHLPA today signed off on a new lottery set-up recently submitted by the league. It marks the third season in a row that the odds have been altered.

The percentage chance that a team is selected to pick first, second, or third, as expressed by the number of ping pong balls present in the lottery draw, is dependent on where they finish in the overall league standings. Unsurprisingly, the changes to the odds first agreed upon in the Collective Bargaining Agreement began with the Edmonton Oilers and the painful realization that they had won yet another lottery in 2015 and would move up in the draft order to select Connor McDavid as their fourth first overall pick in a six year span. In response, the league significantly boosted the odds in 2016 toward the teams finishing last winning the lottery – expecting that Edmonton would no longer be in that range – as LeBrun notes that the 30th-place team had 20% odds of picking first two years ago. After the worst team in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs, retained the top pick that year and selected Auston Matthews, the league and NHLPA again agreed to lessen the odds and insert more chance (and excitement) into the lottery. LeBrun indicates that last year the league’s worst, the Colorado Avalanche, had an 18% chance of holding on to the top pick. However, in a wild turn of events, three teams outside the bottom four won the lottery and moved into the top three draft slots, the biggest shift being the Philadelphia Flyers, who narrowly missed the playoffs, picking second. So, to perhaps combat another clean sweep, the odds have again been increased for those toward the bottom

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the new odds of selecting first for the upcoming 2018 NHL Draft will be 18.5% for 31st, 13.5% for 30th, and 11.5% for 29th. With the addition of an extra non-playoff team, there is also a new distribution which in fact increases the odds for the last team to miss the playoffs, the 17th-place finisher, by a tenth of a percent to 1%. This is accomplished by lessening the odds for the middle-of-the pack lottery teams. It may not be a coincidence that the Oilers are part of that group. Nor may it be a coincidence that the current bottom three – the Buffalo Sabres, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes – are all teams that have been struggling for years and would certainly appreciate retaining their high picks. This yearly change in draft lottery odds seems to be very responsive to the results of each prior lottery, but that isn’t a bad thing. So long as both the league and NHLPA agree, it’s safe to assume that the changes have the best interests of competitive balance in mind.

Retired Official To Join Situation Room For Goaltender Interference Reviews

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7:30PM: The NHLPA has worked quickly to review the proposed changes. The Competition Committee announced this evening that they have approved the “NHL General Managers Recommended Change to Rule 78.7(ii) Governing Coach’s Challenges for Goaltender Interference”. The Committee, made up of members Mike Cammalleri, Ron Hainsey, Kevin Shattenkirk, Cory Schneider and Daniel Winnik, was joined by other players in making this decision. Players’ Association executive and long-time NHLer Mathieu Schneider stressed that “first and foremost, the players want consistency in the application of the rule”. The last remaining step in the process is for the recommendation to be approved by the NHL’s Board of Governors. At this rate, the rule change could be made by the end of the week.

10:30AM: The league knew something had to be done about the goaltender interference problem, and today at the GMs meetings in Florida Gary Bettman announced that a retired official will join the situation room in Toronto to determine the call on interference reviews. This announcement, as reported by several sources including Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, comes pending approval from the Competition Committee and Board of Governors.

Though the league demonstrated that there hasn’t been considerably more challenges this season than those the last few years, the decisions have come under much greater scrutiny. Weekly there is a decision that is met with ire from fans of a certain team, and coverage was only increased when the league admitted they would be instructing their officials to call things differently after the All-Star break.

Now things seem to be taken out of the on-ice officials’ hands, as the league will make the decisions themselves—though one can suspect they will consult the game referees. Still, theoretically it should provide some more consistency to the calls at the very least. As Darren Dreger of TSN points out, the league could eventually move to the same system they have for offside reviews, in which a team receives a minor penalty if they challenge and get it wrong.

Frank Seravalli of TSN believes that the six referee supervisors will be the ones who rotate through the situation room, listing Don Koharski, Paul Devorski, Rob Shick, Mick McGeough and Don Van Massenhoven as potential options, while Greg Wyshynski of ESPN adds Bill McCreary and Director of Officiating Stephen Walkom.

Morning Notes: Player Poll, Draft Lottery, Matthews

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The NHLPA released its annual Player Poll, where it asks members to vote on a variety of things from fastest skater to best role model. Sidney Crosby’s name was understandably everywhere, leading categories like “most difficult to play against” and even getting some love in the top player of all-time.

Interestingly, the players were also asked which coach they would most like to play for and Joel Quenneville came out on top. With things deteriorating in Chicago, many have wondered whether Quenneville would be back in 2018-19 for the Blackhawks. If the player’s opinions mean anything, there is certainly still an appetite for him to be behind the bench.

  • The NHL Draft Lottery is a huge event these days, and with Rasmus Dahlin the top prize the draw will be just as exciting as ever. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that the unofficial date that’s being considered is April 28th, which would be less than eight weeks from now. Remember, three non-playoff teams will be selected to move up in the draft, and while the worst team has the best chance, it’s still more likely that someone else takes home the first-overall pick.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs are reeling recently, dropping four straight games and looking disjointed without their top forward on the ice. Luckily, the team welcomed Auston Matthews back to the beginning of practice today according to Kristen Shilton of TSN, though he remained in a non-contact sweater. Matthews had completed some work before practice by himself, and is getting closer to a return from the injury that he suffered against the Islanders on February 22nd.

Commissioner Notes: Goalie Interference, International Games, Expansion

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NHL commissioner Gary Bettman spoke to the media prior to tonight’s All-Star’s Skills Competition and it didn’t take long for questions to arise about the controversial goaltender interference calls that have created an uproar. As reported earlier, the all-star coaches and league executives met with the league today to discuss the issues with goaltender interference. Bettman was quick to point out that he believes that everyone is overthinking the rule and plans to send a memo to officials suggesting they ease off when looking at video, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston.

“Overall, the system works,” Bettman said. “But I think we’ve gotten to the point where everyone is overlooking the review.”

The comments might suggest the league might be backing off on goaltender interference in the near future.

  • Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston tweets that Bettman announced the 2019 NHL All-Star Game will be in San Jose on Jan. 26-27. It will be the first time its been there since 1997. St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Tom Timmermann tweeted the St. Louis Blues are bidding to host the 2020 all-star game.
  • Johnston also tweets that Bettman said that the New Jersey Devils and Edmonton Oilers will start the 2018-19 regular season in Sweden. The Winnipeg Jets and the Florida Panthers will play two regular season games against each other in Helsinki, Finland. The Devils tweeted they will also be playing in a preseason game in Switzerland.
  • TSN’s Daren Dreger tweets that Bettman said that the plan is to send two teams to China in September and continues to be a “work in progress.” Johnston adds that it’s expected the Calgary Flames and the Boston Bruins will be the two teams.
  • TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that Bettman was asked if the next expansion team (Seattle — if it happens, added Bettman) would get the same favorable expansion draft rules and player pool that the Vegas Golden Knights received. Bettman said, “Yes.” Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus tweets that Bettman added that any future expansion team would insist on the same expansion draft rules that Vegas took advantage of. ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski tweets that Bettman said the ownership group working for a Seattle expansion bid is still working on their application. A timetable and ticket drive are up to them, but likely should be completed in one or two weeks, suggests LeBrun.
  • LeBrun tweets that he talked to NHLPA’s Don Fehr, who said that a potential World Cup tournament could happen in September of 2020 or February of 2020. However, there still would have to be a lot of work to be done.
  • LeBrun tweets that when asked whether adding a 32nd team through expansion would suggest the NHL should look into expanding the number of playoff teams, Bettman said ’No.’ He likes it at 16 teams.
  • Wyshysnki tweets that Bettman wasn’t positive about a possible expansion team coming from Quebec: “We’re not currently considering an application. At the current time, we’re not focused on a team in Quebec City. That doesn’t mean we’ll never be focused [on it].”
  • Wyshysnki tweets that on the topic of the Arizona Coyotes, the commissioner added that ownership is working through possibilities to build a new arena and the strength of the club comes down to the owners’ willingness to continue that pursuit. “I wouldn’t focus on Arizona moving right now. Or anytime soon. Or ever,” said Bettman.
  • Lazerus tweets that Bettman also wasn’t as positive about NHL players joining the Olympics in 2020. “I don’t have an answer to that question.” He said the clubs and owners find Olympic participation “disruptive.”

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