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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Pittsburgh Penguins

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered the following teams: ANA, ARZ, BOS, BUF, CGY, CAR, CBJ, COL, DET, EDM, FLA, LAK, NSH, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, SJS, STL, TOR, VAN, VGK and WSH.

Phil KesselWho are the Pittsburgh Penguins most thankful for?

Phil Kessel.

Since coming over from the Toronto Maple Leafs, all Kessel has done is put up 166 points in 196 regular season games, 45 more in 49 playoff games and won two Stanley Cups. He’s on pace for 95 points and the best season of his career, and people still mention him third when discussing the Penguins’ firepower up front.

Kessel has been a perfect fit for the Penguins, sliding in behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin as the third musketeer. He’s even found a leadership role on the team that few expected from his days in Boston and Toronto, and is continuously talked up by teammates and coaches for his dedication to the team. It’s not often that an $8MM player is a bargain, but that’s exactly what Kessel seems to be for the Penguins after Toronto agreed to retain $1.2MM per season and salaries are starting to balloon around the league.

Next year, when the salary cap moves to somewhere between $78-82MM, Kessel’s $6.8MM hit for the Penguins will represent around 8.5% of the cap. As long as his play doesn’t drop off considerably as he enters his thirties, that number should be a reasonable amount through the last four years of his deal. The fact that the actual salary decreases significantly as well is just icing on the cake.

What are the Penguins most thankful for?

Healthy bodies.

The careers of Crosby, Malkin and Kris Letang have been tarnished by several injuries, with each missing huge chunks of time with various ailments. While Matthew Murray has been in and out of the lineup, the rest of the Penguins have been relatively healthy this year. Nine players have suited up for all 32 games this season, including Crosby, Kessel and Letang, while Malkin has missed just four.

No, they’re not without incident. But after watching the team struggle to even ice six NHL defensemen during their playoff run last season, getting through the first third of the season relatively healthy is a big boost. Now with Murray back off injured reserve, don’t be surprised if you see them start to creep up the standings in the Metropolitan.

What would the Penguins be even more thankful for?

Being in any other division.

The Metropolitan Division is an absolute meat grinder again this season. Ten points separate first from eighth, and no team has a goal differential worse than Carolina’s -11. In contrast, the Atlantic houses four teams that would be in last place in the Metro and five that carry goal differentials of -14 or worse.

Currently, even at 16-13-3 and with 35 points in the standings, the Penguins are out of a playoff spot. If they’re to get themselves back into the postseason to try and three-peat the Stanley Cup, they’ll need to kick one of the other strong teams out. The Metro is set to pummel itself down the stretch until a few teams remain, and the trade deadline should be quite the arms race with so many teams still in the hunt.

What should be on the Penguins’ Holiday Wish List?

Another center.

Riley Sheahan was a solid pickup for the Penguins, even if he hasn’t put up the strongest possession numbers since coming over from the Detroit Red Wings. Pittsburgh simply didn’t have enough depth down the middle, and Sheahan has recorded nine points in 23 games. Still, the team could use another real third-line center to solidify the top-9 and make them a tougher team to match up against in the playoffs.

Obviously Crosby and Malkin make any top two units dangerous, but the Penguins seem to be missing the lineup length that was afforded them by players like Nick Bonino and Matt Cullen in the past. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them go out and acquire another body to fill in down the middle by the trade deadline, even if it does cost them future assets. Win-now doesn’t even fully describe how the Penguins’ front office must feel, after taking home back-to-back titles. Why not supplement your All-World core with another star player, even if it does cost you some future talent.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Penguins Shifting Focus On Defense

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Just last week, the Pittsburgh Penguins were in the enviable position of having enough depth on defense to be a seller, despite their position as a clear-cut buyer in terms of contending for a third straight Stanley Cup title. However, the Penguins know too well from their experiences over the past few years just how quickly that feeling of comfort on the blue line can change with injury. In placing Justin Schultz on injured reserve this morning, with the expectation being that he will be out “weeks” at the very least, Pittsburgh’s opinion on their blue line has changed in an instant.

Ian Cole was the man on the block last week, with many teams having immediate interest in obtaining the services on the solid stay-at-home defender. An impending free agent who has been devalued in Pittsburgh following the signing of a similar player in Matt Hunwick and the re-emergence of Olli Maatta this season, Cole had become expendable for the Penguins. However, as beat writer Jason Mackey indicates, any talk of moving Cole is completely off the table for now with Schultz out of the lineup.

In fact, the health of Schultz going forward could turn the Pens from sellers to buyers on the blue line. Frank Corrado, who was called up to take Schultz’s spot on the roster, has not worked out so far. If that continues, Pittsburgh will at least need to add another depth option. Chad Ruhwedel, while remarkably reliable for Pittsburgh over the past year plus, is best suited for that #7 depth option role. Hunwick and Cole, while both experienced, successful defenders, are very similar and similarly one-dimensional. Beyond a healthy grouping of (the also injury-prone) Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, and Maatta, there are serious questions without Schultz to round out the top four. If “weeks” turn to “months” for Schultz to return to action, GM Jim Rutherford could end up on the opposite side of the defensive trade market.

Penguins Demote Frank Corrado

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Frank Corrado’s stay in Pittsburgh is over and the hunt for a another top-six defenseman continues for the defending Stanley Cup champs. The team announced that they have reassigned the young blue liner to the AHL’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins and appear to be happy to move forward with Matt Hunwick or Chad Ruhwedel as their final starter.

Corrado, 24, was acquired by the Penguins from the Toronto Maple Leafs at the trade deadline last season in exchange for a package of Eric Fehr, Steve Oleksy, and a fourth-round pick. The former Canuck was unhappy with his play time in Toronto, but things have hardly changed in Pittsburgh. Corrado played in only two games with the team last season, missed out on the entire playoff run, and is now back in the AHL after only three games this season. Corrado suited up for the Pens in their first three games of November, being held scoreless and averaging only eleven minutes of ice time, and had been sitting in the press box ever since.

With Hunwick recently activated from injured reserve, the Penguins have made the unsurprising choice to move forward without Corrado. Hunwick has played in only seven games this season, while Ruhwedel has been forced into 18 already. The pair have a combined three points and an even rating and could work as a serviceable sixth man duo for Pittsburgh this season. However, given the injury-prone nature of Kris Letang and Justin Schultz as well as the team’s shockingly low goals-for and goals-against rankings, “serviceable” may not be enough. GM Jim Rutherford may stick with the veteran options for now, but will surely be looking for an upgrade come the trade deadline. This season, the likes of Corrado won’t be the target.

Metropolitan Notes: Bratt, Calvert, Letang, Wennberg

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A lot has been made this season of the impressive play of the New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, who has gone from a training camp surprise to a major piece to the team’s success in a couple of months. The 19-year-old winger, who was drafted in the sixth round in 2016, shouldn’t be this successful at this point in his career, but the youngster has really improved in a short amount of time since coming over from Sweden this offseason.

Now with injuries to Kyle Palmieri and Marcus Johansson as well as the training camp injury to Travis Zajac, the team needs Bratt more than ever, who has now moved to the team’s second line, according to The Record’s Andrew Gross. He currently has five goals and six assists in 12 games. His ability to adapt quickly has impressed his teammates and coaches.

“I think he’s really been able to come in and fill a role in your quote-unquote top six but power play, penalty kill,” coach John Hynes said. “That’s a big void, without Kyle, without Johansson, without Travis, not only are those guys huge factors five on five but they all play such a key element on special teams, both power play and penalty kill. Jesper’s come in and done a good job. I think he’s alleviated some of those losses.”

  • Columbus Blue Jackets’ Matt Calvert has left the team’s road trip and is returning to Columbus after sustaining a big hit in the third period of Saturday’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning, according to The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline (subscription required). He is listed as day-to-day with an upper body injury. The injury came when Lightning defender Dan Girardi knocked Calvert off his skates with a shoulder-to-shoulder hit that knocked his helmet off and slammed him into the boards.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins defensive combination of Kris Letang and Olli Matta had to be broken up Saturday in their 4-2 loss to the Vancouver Canucks as the pair struggled together. In fact, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazzette’s Jason Mackey, Letang struggled immensely in the game and was on the ice for all four goals against. He now has a minus-16 plus/minus rating this season, which is way below average for the 30-year-old veteran. Maatta is at minus-five.
  • Columbus Blue Jackets’ Alexander Wennberg’s struggles to put the puck in the net continue as he now has had just two goals in 34 games dating back to last season, according to The Hockey Writers Mark Scheig. Wennberg, who had a promising season last year with 13 goals and 46 assists has just one goal in eight games this season. While the 23-year-old is more of a passer, the team could use more goals from the third-year center.

Evening Snapshots: Senators, Letang, Doughty

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News and notes from around the NHL this evening:

  • The Ottawa Senators signed forward Brendan Woods to a PTO this afternoon in the lead-up to training camp opening this Thursday. The Canadian forward was drafted 129th overall in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft by the Carolina Hurricanes, but has played only seven career NHL games so far. Expect this signing to be more a tryout for Ottawa’s new AHL affiliate Belleville Senators.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins can breathe a sign of relief as Kris Letang is officially cleared for contact, reports the NHL.com’s Sam Kasan. The Penguins expect Letang at training camp, which opens this Friday. Letang says that the contact clearance is just the first step, and that he doesn’t know if he’ll be ready by opening night. The Penguins’ defenseman played only 41 games last season after going down with a herniated disc in February.
  • Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty walked back comments made earlier about potentially leaving the Kings. Initially, Doughty told the Hockey News that he just wanted to win Stanley Cups and that he didn’t care where he played. Today, he clarified those comments by saying he only wants to win a Cup in Los Angeles. Doughty has two more years left on his deal before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Snapshots: Fleury, Letang, Top 100

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Marc-Andre Fleury would have likely waived his no-trade clause to go to Calgary last season, according to Eric Francis of Sportsnet who caught up with him in New York. Fleury was very cognizant of all the trade rumors surrounding him at the deadline, and knew Calgary was a potential landing spot.

I heard all the rumors – Winnipeg, Calgary and Vegas.

I didn’t know what was going to happen. At the trade deadline I couldn’t sleep that night, wondering, ‘where am I going?’

Fleury eventually ended up in Vegas with the Golden Knights, where he’s primed to be a starting goalie again and one of the early faces of the league’s 31st franchise. He’ll hope to improve on the .909 save percentage he put up last year, his lowest since the 2009-10 season.

  • Fleury’s old teammate Kris Letang has been cleared to rejoin the team at practice after neck surgery in the spring. Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that Letang will be on the ice on Friday when Penguins’ camp starts. Obviously the team will still be taking it slow with him, but it’s a big step to getting Letang ready for the start of the regular season. The Penguins found success even without him in the playoffs, but will be relying on him quite a bit again this season.
  • The Athletic’s Corey Pronman released the final 50 of his Top 100 Under 25 list that was started yesterday, and—surprise, surprise—Connor McDavid takes the top spot. The rest of the list is a great read, with under-appreciated players like Brayden Point and Jaccob Slavin both making appearances. The sheer number of star players listed is incredible, and continues to show how the NHL is skewing younger and younger in recent years.

Afternoon Notes: McDavid, Draisaitl, Letang

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The Edmonton Oilers will continue to try to experiment with the lines and their two stars in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who have previously played together. However, many feel that the two young stars should be separated with the idea of eventually having two elite lines instead of the one. McDavid, who put up 100 points (including 70 assists) last year, should still be able to produce big numbers without Draisaitl, who has been playing wing up until now. Even as a wing, Draisaitl put up 48 assists of his own. But who could take the place of Draisaitl on that number one line? McDavid and Patrick Maroon have several options, according to The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell.

The scribe writes (subscription required) that there are a number of candidates that could fill that role and many questions will obviously be answered in training camp. Regardless, he lists Drake Caggiula as the top candidate for that first line. The 23-year-old forward is coming off his rookie year in which he played 60 games, scoring seven goals and 18 points on the season. However, Mitchell writes that Caggiula and McDavid had some chemistry in the time they played together and might be the best fit. He adds that Caggiula struggled through injuries early in his rookie year and the real player may not have been evident until late in the year. It’s true, he did put up three goals in 13 playoff games for Edmonton, so the former University of North Dakota star might surprise many this coming year if he gets the job.

While Mitchell lists eight candidates, it’s quite obvious that Edmonton is as clueless as anyone so far about what will happen. One of those eight candidates is Draisaitl himself, who Mitchell believes will be thrown back onto that first line the moment that McDavid’s line struggles. This may not be the year for Edmonton to make this change. One sleeper that should be considered is the team’s top pick in this year’s draft, Kailer Yamamoto. The 22nd overall pick in the draft is considered to be a high volume shooter, and his speed and talent may work perfectly with McDavid, but at 18 years of age, 5-foot-8 and 153 pounds, the youngster might need another year of development before leaping onto the Oilers’ number one line.

  • Pittsburgh Penguins coach Mike Sullivan said that he did not ask defenseman Kris Letang to change to a more conservative style of hockey, writes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Sullivan says that he asked him to use better judgement while playing. Letang has missed a lot of time over his career due to his often reckless play and managed to only play in 41 games last year when he needed surgery on his neck and missed the team’s championship run in the playoffs. “There might be an assumption that we’re trying to change the way “Tanger” plays the game. That’s not what the message has been to Kris,” Sullivan said. “It’s been more about making more calculated decisions on when there simply isn’t a play to be made.”

Money To Move Out In Potential Pittsburgh Trade

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Often lost in the narrative chronicling the Penguins’ need for a third-line center is the fact that money will almost certainly head the other direction in any trade. Currently, Pittsburgh is a respectable $3.82 MM under the cap ceiling, but a few factors should be considered. Firstly, GM Jim Rutherford will almost surely allot at least $1 MM in space to acquire necessary rentals at the trade deadline. Second, his defensive and center depth is rather weak overall, so any move would likely not be the last before a post-season pursuit. Third, and perhaps most important, multiple contracts on the horizon will force uncomfortable decisions on wing and top-four defense.

With Matt Cullen departing for Minnesota, the Penguins’ third best center is Carter Rowney, just one season removed from AHL plug duty. Zach Aston-Reese could fill in temporarily, but it’s not ideal for his first professional season. The teams needs an upper-echelon third center option, and available options are supremely limited league-wide. Rutherford claimed to have half a dozen options in July, but with the summer expiring the options are far fewer. Although Rutherford is playing his cards close to his chest, it’s nearly inconceivable that the Penguins go into the new year without greater certainty at that position. A move needs to be made.

On defense, the team will need to determine the future of multiple players. It’s a fair assumption that the team will bank on the improved health of Norris-capable Kris Letang, for better or worse. Justin Schultz is also safe, as is the dependable Brian Dumoulin. In that fourth position, will the Pens re-sign impending UFA Ian Cole, or will his shot-blocking mentality start to show its toll? Is Olli Maatta worth $4.083 MM on a cash strapped team? Will Derrick Pouliot finally clean up his turnovers and make an impact in the Steel City and make either expendable? If Maatta’s skating doesn’t substantially improve, it’s a safe bet his contract will be the one off-loaded in any transaction, regardless of potential and upside.

On offense, the team will also need to make painful judgments. Patric Hornqvist is entering his final year of his contract, and at 31 years old, how will his body hold up multiple seasons into a new contract? Would Bryan Rust be able to replace his intangibles and hard-nosed offense at a fraction of the cost? His internal value is incredibly high, but he’s been relegated to a third-line role for the foreseeable future. Additionally, how devoted is Pittsburgh to the Phil Kessel model? It seems incredibly far-fetched that the team might consider moving Kessel, and they would undoubtedly receive a lesser player in any trade. Still, his $6.8 MM is a strain on the overall forward structure. With Jake Guentzel looking to land a substantial raise in two seasons, Kessel may not be entirely untouchable. Finally, could an accessory piece be moved off the roster as a throw-in for a potential elite third-line center? Impending RFA Scott Wilson isn’t the most glamorous of names, but he could easily earn decent money on his next contract and provide depth scoring for a re-building team. Carl Hagelin’s $4 MM was well above his current rate of production, and his blistering speed could be a tempting add for any squad.

In the final evaluation, Pittsburgh will almost certainly part with a roster player if they are to land a significant piece at the 3rd-line center position. Maatta seems most likely, and has for some time, but the selling teams will have a definite upper-hand in all negotiations, and the money complicates matters. The team has shown time and again it is willing to part with high-end draft picks, but any impending deal will necessarily be more intricate, considering the dearth of the organization’s prospect pool and other contributing factors.

Injury Updates: Sproul, Lundqvist, Letang

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While the Red Wings are projected to be over the cap as things stand when the season starts, MLive’s Ansar Khan notes that defenseman Ryan Sproul may not be ready to start the season and could be a candidate for LTIR along with Johan Franzen which would help get them back under.  Sproul suffered a torn ACL in early March and missed the remainder of the season.

The 24-year-old played in 27 games with the Red Wings in 2016-17, collecting seven points (1-6-7) while averaging over 15 minutes per night in ice time.  However, he’s not waiver exempt and Detroit has several rearguards pushing for the last couple of spots on the roster.  If Sproul is ready to go by the start of the season, he could find himself a trade or waiver candidate pretty quickly if he’s unable to lock down a roster spot.

Other injury notes from around the league:

  • Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist told NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti that he has fully recovered from the knee injury he sustained at the World Hockey Championships. Although the injury had a rehab time of four-to-six weeks, the netminder noted that he was still able to resume skating and begin his normal preparation routine at the same time he usually does during the offseason.  The 35-year-old will be looking to rebound from an uncharacteristically weaker 2016-17 campaign where he posted the highest GAA (2.70) and lowest SV% (.910) of his NHL career.
  • In a reader chat, Sam Werner of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Penguins defenseman Kris Letang is progressing well in his recovery from a neck injury but that he might not be 100% by the time training camp opens up next month. Even if Letang weren’t quite ready to start the season, Pittsburgh has been active in supplementing their defensive depth so they shouldn’t need to make any other moves to add some help on the back end. [Related: Penguins Transaction Tracker from Roster Resource]  Letang missed half of 2016-17 plus their entire postseason run between the late-season neck issue and various upper-and-lower body ailments earlier on but still had the second most points of all Pittsburgh defenders with 34 (5-29-34) in 41 contests.

Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin

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With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.

The Numbers

Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.

Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.

Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ’decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts.

Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.

Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.

Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.

Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.

Projection

Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?

Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.

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